SB Nation User Blog: Eyriq the Red

Using Kevin Pelton's WARP to Access the Competition: Eastern Conference

Eyriq the Red — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 08:11:14 -0000

I began an analysis of the Magic roster using a metric created by Kevin Pelton called WARP, or Wins After Replacement Player. The findings have been one part insightful and another part humorous, as WARP really, really, likes what Otis has done with this roster.

What does it say about the other two members of the Eastern Conference Big 3? Jump below to find out.

First a look at the Celtics. Now just a quick disclaimer, I am by no means an expert on what the Celtics are doing this offseason. The minutes I've aloted and the players I've aloted them to may not be accurate at all. Now that said, here is the table.

Player	MPG	Proj. WARP
Rondo	37	15.107
Pierce	36	8.057
Allen	35	6.996
KG	34	12.836
Perkins	30	5.23
Wallace	22	3.307
Daniels	16	-0.136
House	11	1.315
Davis	10	-0.085
Walker	9	-1.045
		Total	Team Wins
		51.582	61.582

WARP has me feeling a lot better about how the Magic match up against the Celtics. I mean, Rondo is their best player? Really? In reality I'd error on the side of giving the Celtics a little more credit than this quick break down does. For instance Big Baby showed that he was more productive in the playoffs than he had shown in the regular season, so if they keep him he could be a positive contributor instead of the negative one that WARP shows, and they may work him in the rotation more than I was able too. All in all though this team really does not seem like such the Boogey Man anymore, especially after seeing them through this analysis, which puts them 3rd out of the big three (I'll have to check Toronto as I suspect they may give them a run for their money. Then again, probably not).

The Cavs table is below, but for the faint of heart I'd recommend stopping right here. Still there? Ok, but I warned you. Take a look.

Player	MPG	Proj. WARP
James	38	27.459
Williams	35	6.936
West	34	4.356
Varejao	30	3.39
Shaq	28	10.906
Parker	27	0.554
Big Z	20	5.091
Moon	18	2.276
Hickson	10	0.376
		Total	Team Wins
		61.344	71.344

Ok, to me this looks like the Cavs have gotten better, and yes that is better over a team that won 66 games last year. The minutes and rotation will probably be a lot better than what I've come up with, but for the sake of this exercise I think this will do to get across a point. Don't sleep on the Cavs! LeBron is a freaking BEAST. I mean seriously, I don't think there is a team you could swap him to that wouldn't automatically make the playoffs next year. Hey, I might have to test that... But anyway, they are looking to be the main rival to the Magic getting the #1 seed, while Boston's window seems to be closing fast. Shaq is surprisingly still productive, but so is Big Z, so how that sorts itself out should be interesting. Cavs or Magic for the #1 seed next season, take your pick.

And then there is the case of Rashard Lewis. Lewis spent most of his career as a small forward,...

Eyriq the Red — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 19:44:24 -0000

And then there is the case of Rashard Lewis. Lewis spent most of his career as a small forward, but was moved to power forward by the Magic. The move, though, didn’t dramatically change his production. Lewis posted a 9.8 Win Score per 48 [WS48] minutes with Seattle. With the Magic in 2007-08 his WS48 was 9.6 and last year it was 9.8. An average small forward posts a mark of 7.3, so was Lewis was above average in Seattle. An average power forward, though, has a 10.3 WS48. Consequently, Lewis was below average these past two seasons with Orlando.

David Berri of The Wages of Win Journal compares the relative opposite directions that the Detroit and Orlando franchises have headed since the 08' Playoffs. He gives an interesting take on Lewis potentially switching to the 3.

The "Magical" Four Factors

Eyriq the Red — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 16:47:50 -0000

Four Factors

eFG%: +.055%

#2 in the NBA. The only team that had a better eFG% differential was Boston. This was and will continue to be a hallmark of this team and a big reason why the Magic win games.

TOV%: -.011

#25 in the NBA. The Magic are slightly below average at taking care of the ball, and horrible at creating turnovers, so this is no surprise. This is a big factor into why the Magic lose games.

ORB%: -.001

#16 in the NBA. The Magic are an elite Defensive Rebounding team, and a horrible Offensive Rebounding team. This factor neither helps nor really hurts our ability to win games (unless we play a team like old Detroit, then it kills us, lol).

FT/FGA: +.042

#2 in the NBA. The Rockets are the only other team that had a larger FT advantage. If they Magic could convert their FTA at a higher rate (they are currently last in FT%) they would easily lead in this Factor and become all the more dangerous.

Conclusion

Turnovers are from this analysis clearly the number one weakness in the Magic's armor. From the outside looking in the main culprits were Dwight and Hedo. This comes as no surprise to Magic fans, right? I mean we constantly moan about this and it was one of the reasons Hedo fell out of favor with so many fans. Replacing Hedo with Carter is a huge net positive in this area, as will be the eventual Watson for Johnson swap (in terms of who our 2cd string PG is). Bass and Anderson show no red flags in this department. So I think it is safe to say that the Magic can expect a marked improvement in this area just from the off-season moves to date. The onus is really on Howard to improve his ball control and passing, and if he does this factor will go from being a primary weakness to being at worst a non-Factor in the final score.

I just want to point out that Dwight has his fingerprints all over this analysis. His strengths are the team's strengths, his weaknesses the team's weaknesses. His limiting turnovers and increasing his FT% will go a long way towards lifting the team from contender status to perennial favorite. It is also worth noting that with the solid improvement to the frontcourt the Magic are primed to improve their rebounding too. O-tiz may have just created a monster.

Magic Lack a Go-To-Scorer

Eyriq the Red — Fri, 10 Apr 2009 03:07:12 -0000

I posted this over at RealGM and I figured it would be suitable for a blog post over here, so here it is. I hope it inspires some wild debate as a conversation with our very own erivera7 inspired it.

http://www.3hoopsfans.com/2009/04/the-weapons-that-make-a-player-clutch/

This article brings up the idea that a go-to-scorer will excel in crunch in three quantifiable categories; True Shooting %, Assist rate, and Free Throw rate. The bench marks as the article states them are thus;

Scores Efficiently (.550+ TS%)
Can Draw Fouls (7.0+ FTA/48)
Can Pass (>20% for wing players, >15% for centers)

Having a player that is skilled in these three areas hypothetically provides that team with an edge in close games, and therefore and edge in the playoffs. The article notes that while in the 80's and 90's there were typically only 2-3 in any given season, this year we have several. They are LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Paul, Kobe Bryant, Brandon Roy, Devin Harris, Paul Pierce, Manu Ginobili, Time Duncan.

Not a single Magic man. I wanted to take a moment though to look real quick at our foursome and see exactly where these players fall short.

Dwight Howard
TS% = .606 >
FTA/48 = 14.57 >
AST% = 7.3 <

Dwight dominates in two out of three categories. However it is in his passing that he struggles. We have seen improvement in this area throughout the year, and with teams [i]having[/i] to double team him, he will find the open guy for the assist if he can develop that comfort level and awareness. An improvment here will impact the offense 2 fold, as not only will it result in increased scoring chances for his teammates but it will also cut down on his turnovers when the hard double comes.

Rashard Lewis
TS% = .582 >
FTA/48 = 4.62 <
AST% = 12.6 <

Rashard is an efficient scorer but lacks the aggressiveness and court vision of a go-to-scorer. I personally think he would be a more effective creator out of the post than on the wing, as it seems putting the ball on the floor limits his mobility and slows down his reaction time. Also, as his game is more finesse than brutish his post moves and finishes tend to avoid contact rather than instigate it, limiting his trips to the strip.

Hedo Turkoglu
TS% = .537 <
FTA/48 = 6.557 <
AST% = 22.3 >

Hedo comes very, very close. His shooting is down from last year, where he was far above .550 TS% bench mark. What it comes down too is that Hedo doesn't get to the line enough, but even in that he comes close. Truth be told I've felt all year that on his drives he was getting fouled but not getting the respect of the whistle. Also, and this is anecdotal, but it seems that Hedo doesn't really turn it on till the 4th quarter anyway, thus his numbers don't quite show his true value as a go-to-scorer.

Jameer Nelson
TS% = .612 >
FTA/48 = 3.54 <
AST% = 31.9 >

This is salt in the wounds for those of us who have put the injury behind us, but Nelson really was having an All Star year. The only area that he lacks is in getting to the line, but with his quickness and ability to penetrate I think he could improve that area. Maybe his lack of height will forever keep him from being an effective contact finisher, but the jury is still out on that.

All in all I'd say we have a very well rounded foursome, with both Nelson and Howard having room to grow. Going into this post season Hedo will be our closest thing to a go-to-scorer, so if we are going to win the grind it out fights that many post season games turn into it will be on his shoulders. He is much more valuable than some people may be willing to admit.

The Magical Four Factors

Eyriq the Red — Thu, 01 Jan 2009 20:09:58 -0000

With a new week, comes a new showcased fanpost. This time from Eyriq the Red, who provides an assessment of the Magic after the first 32 games. Check it out. - ER

As Ben Q. Rock notes in his post game recaps, Four Factors have been shown to stand above the rest in terms of leading a team to victory, or defeat. These are Effective Field Goal Percentage, Free Throws/Field Goals, Offensive Rebounding, and Turnover Rate. So, how do the Magic look after 32 games? Which Factor are we strongest in? Weakest? Let's take a look.

What I did was look back through all our games so far and I recorded how many games we beat the other team in a particular category. So for eFG we are 26-6, or in other words 26 times we had the higher eFG% against our opponent. I also noted how we rank compared to the rest of the association. Below is a table showing the results.

[editor's note: Click after the jump to see the stats.]

eFG 4th	FT/FG 15th	OREB% 27th	TOr 16th
26-6 (.813)	19-13 (.594)	11-21 (.344)	15-12-5 (.469)

Our strongest Factor was by far eFG. We consistently hold our opponents to a lower eFG%, as our 26-6 record in that category shows, which isn't hard considering we have the 4th best eFG% in the league. But what we do on offense is only part of the story; we should also note that we have the best eFG% defense in the league.

OREB% is our weakest Factor. We win this Factor only 34% of the time, and are 27th overall in the league. We were 27th last year as well, though our overall OREB% is slightly better this year. Dwight is improved in this regard and having Battie playing helps as well. Our best offensive rebounder though, statistically, is Gortat, so getting him more playing time could help with this Factor even more.

The relation of the Magic's performance in each Factor and it's relation to our real Wins and Losses should also provide us with some insightful information. The table below shows the number of times we were outperformed in each category during our 7 losing contests this season.

eFG	FT/FG	OREB%	TOr
4 (.667)	4 (.308)	5 (.238)	3 (.250)

We have only lost the battle of eFG% in 6 contests this year, but a whopping 4 of those contests turned into losing games. For the Magic, this is by far the most telling Factor in our wins and losses. If we are losing the FG% battle you can bet we are going to lose the game.

Surprisingly, or maybe not so surprisingly considering we are winning so many games, OREB% has little relation to whether we win or lose a game. Yes we get beat in the category but apparently we keep it close enough so as to do little harm to the overall outcome.

The same is true in the Turn-Over department. We are just good enough to break even against our opponents and very rarely do we lose games because of TOV's.

FT/FG is a little more impactful on whether or not we are going to win or lose a game. This is because we typically do such a good job of getting to the line more than we send our opponent there. It is still not hugely important though as only 31% of losses in this category turn into losing efforts for the team. I think not relying on this category is part of the secret behind our Road success, as home teams can at times get the benefit of the whistle. Though getting killed in this Factor against Detroit coupled with porous shooting did kill our chances in that game.

Some final thoughts:

The Magic are elite because of one thing, their ability to make shots and keep the other team from doing so. A big part of the separation that exists between the Magic and their opponents is due to the 3pt shot. When this shot is falling the Magic are practically unbeatable.
If the Magic are getting out gunned from the field it is pretty much game over. The two games we won while at the same time getting beat on FG% were against Dallas and Chicago. In both we went to the Stripe at a much greater clip. Being a poor FT shooting team often times cancels out this advantage, and both these game went down to the wire. Also interesting is that we had the advantage in OREB against Chicago and TOV advantage against Dallas. This doesn't happen often enough to be considered a safety net though.
Pietrus is our best OREB outside of our bigs, so having him out hurts us in that area. And no, Lewis is not one of our "bigs" when we talk about OREB, lol.
Gortat should really be worked in more with Dwight on the floor. It would do wonders for our OREB. What I don't know is how it would affect our eFG%, which is really our calling card and not to be sacrificed if we know what's good for us.

All in all this is a Magic team that is dominating the league right now and looking very tough to stop. They are getting it together offensively and I won't be surprised to see us climb even higher in eFG% before the year is done. The same actually goes for our OREB% and TOr. I honestly think this team is just as good as the Bostons, Clevelands, and L.A.s of the world, which has to scare the bejesus out of other teams. I mean, besides the Lakers we have the largest window for winning a title... or 4.... of any of them.

Bucks Diary: Top Centers in the NBA

Eyriq the Red — Sat, 04 Oct 2008 02:54:52 -0000

Bucks Diary: Top Centers in the NBA

Is Dwight Howard in the Best Center in the NBA? One blogger's numbers confirm that indeed he is. Surf the site for other juicy tidbits if you like, there is lots to see of interest to Magic fans.

The Magic Man in Orlando

Eyriq the Red — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 17:18:32 -0000

The Magic Man in Orlando

NOTE: From the FanShots. Thanks, EtR - Ben

Dr. Berri Wages in on the Orlando Magic. Some very interesting insights, and a recommended read.

Magic Draft Board V2

Eyriq the Red — Fri, 16 May 2008 19:28:24 -0000

Former Lottery Picks/Developing Players:

J.J. Redick SG; F. Vasquez F/C; M. Gortat C

Redick either needs to be given a chance to play or be traded. He fits in with what the Magic want to do offensively, just not defensively.Fran is struggling over in Spain and wants to come over. He has a power game that we need and the athleticism to really pay off, he needs to just come over already. Gortat has shown flashes and looks to be on the rise, most likely continuing in Foyle's role next year.

Magic Needs:

The Magic look to lose possibly seven players this off season, including 4 players from the back court. So really they need a lot of everything, and with the 22cd pick you are usually lucky to find a rotation player, so lets not be picky. That being said, the two positions I see the greatest need is at the 2 and the 4. Also, due to the style of play and what was lacking from those positions this year, I think a slasher at the 2 would be great, as well as a banger at the 4. So from that perspective, lets begin.

Draft Board 1-30

*These opinions are from both what I've read and seen. Enjoy!

Derrick Rose PG: No knock on Nelson, but thinking of Rose paired with Howard is too good to pass up.
Michael Beasley F: Is an inside/outside threat offensively with three point range that can defend two positions, rebound well, and really get up and down the court. Would be tremendous next to D12.
O.J. Mayo SG: Has great handles and is a prolific scorer. He would give the Magic the slasher they crave. Also plays great D. Has super star written all over him.
Brook Lopez C: Is an inside/outside threat with range out to 18 feet. Plays good D though not a dominant rebounder. That's ok, we have Dwight.
Eric Gordan SG: This guy can shoot, drive, and dish, though still needs to refine his skills a bit. Can create his own shot and create for others. Also plays good defense. Will be a star.
Anthony Randolph F: Is in inside/outside threat with range out to 15 feet. Very explosive, can rebound and block shots. Very quick and athletic.
Kevin Love C/F: This guy has crazy skills that would fit in perfect on this team. Great passer, great hands, great inside/outside game, high IQ. Lack of athleticism and mobility are the only concerns.
Darrell Arthur F: He is long and smooth and can block shots and rebound well. Also can defend both forward spots. Has an inside/outside game.
Kosta Koufos C: Has a good inside/outside game, long and good shot blocker and rebounder. Probably the best prospect for the 5 outside of Brook Lopez.
Marreese Speights C/F: The first and best banger on this board. Good back to the basket game. Is a terror on the glass and on defense.
DeAndre Jordan C: Explosive in the Dwight mold, rebounds and blocks shots with the best of them. His offense to this point is the dunk.
Nicolas Batum SG: Great defender, shooter, and finisher. Has a smooth game all around. Will be a star.
Russell Westbrook G: I really like him. He is quick and explosive, finishes well at the basket and has a good shot. Also defends well.
Jerryd Bayless G: Looks to be a lethal scorer with play making skills. Very quick and athletic, can get where ever he wants to on the court.
Danilo Gallinari SF: Looks to be a lot like Hedo Turkeglu, so nothing wrong with that. Can shoot and dribble with a point forward mindset. Should be a good player.
Chase Budinger SG: He is a big, explosive swingman that can shoot lights out and he rebounds the position well. His height, shooting, and rebounding make me think he would fit in great here, though he is not the slasher/creator type.
Chris Douglas-Roberts SG: He has really started to grow on me. His ability to handle the ball and get to the basket would be god send for this team at the 2 guard spot. Has a good shot but is more adept at creating off the dribble or finishing at the hoop.
D.J. Augustine PG: Really reminds me of another Nelson. Can be a great starter for a team in this league, as he shoots well and looks to get his teammates involved.
Donte Green F: Has a very, very sweet offensive game. Can rebound and really jump. While he can play both the 3 and 4, is probably better suited at the 3.
Bill Walker SG: He has handles and freakish athleticism, even after coming back from two torn ACL's. Shoots the ball extremely well. His upside is enough to warrant overlooking his injury history at this spot.
Brandon Rush SG: He is long and athletic and shoots the ball well. He can defend well and will fit in with the team as he does not look to take the game over.
Robin Lopez C/F: The next banger off the board, Robin is an excellent defender and rebounder. Struggles on offensive though.
J.J. Hickson PF: Good inside/outside game, plays good D and rebounds and blocks shots. Very athletic.
Richard Hendrix PF: Yet another banger. Good on the glass, plays D, and can rebound. Developing some range.
Joey Dorsey PF: A Ben Wallace clone? He is already there offensively...
Joe Alexander SF: Another point forward? He has all the skills to be one. Very athletic with a good touch around the rim and with the long ball. Terrific player.
Alexis Ajinca PF: Another soft yet skilled Euro big man? Has like a 7 foot 8 wingspan, which is sick. Can rebound, block shots, and shoot really well. He looked good when I saw him play.
Mario Chalmers PG: A even better back up to Nelson than Augustine? He can hit the three, defend, and run a team. Looked great in that final game, did he not?
Wayne Ellington SG: Can shoot lights out and get to the rim and finish. I think he is a gifted player and will be a sleeper in this draft.
JaVale McGee C/F: Plays facing the basket. Has long arms and good athleticism, and can rebound and block shots well.

Eyriq the Red's Magic Draft Board

Eyriq the Red — Mon, 21 Apr 2008 02:53:37 -0000

I am considering both team needs and BPA in structuring this board. Here are my team needs in order of highest need to lowest need.

1) A starting Shooting Guard. I pick a starter here over starter at Power Forward because I am more comfortable with Lewis at the 4 than Turk at the 2.

2) A starting Power Forward. See above^.

3) A starting Point Guard. Replacing Nelson is a very low priority and I only see one guy that could come in and challenge Jameer right away.

4) A starting Small Forward. This would force both Lewis and Hedo to play out of position. Do we really want that?

5) A backup Point Guard. Both Arroyo and Dooling are free agents, and Nelson has had health problems. I think we need some security here.

6) A backup Power Forward. Here a pick could be nurtured to eventually fill Battie’s shoes once his contract is up.

7) A backup at any other position. I think any guy we pick at positions like C, SF, and SG will have a hard time cracking the rotation this year or anytime soon.

Magic Draft Board 1-30

1. Michael Beasley: The best player in the draft fills an immediate need at the 4.

2. Derrick Rose: They say he is a small Lebron James. I’ll take it and move Nelson to the bench.

3. Brook Lopez: His descent range makes having him in with D12 an option. Probably a better version of the previous twin towers experiment.

4. O.J. Mayo: This sweet shooting guard shows he can play D too. Instant upgrade over Evans.

5. Eric Gordon: Again, here is a guy that could start right away, and what he lacks in D he makes up for in handles. Will need touches to be effective.

6. Russell Westbrook: Another combo guard like Gordon, with both the handles and scoring to take advantage of open lanes.

7. Kevin Love: Has a wide body with a great skill set. Would be able to start and fit in with D12 beautifully.

8. Anthony Randolph: Another big with the ability to shoot from 15. Also comes with freakish athleticism.

9. Kosta Koufos: Bit of a risk as a potential starter his rookie season but his skill set and size scream twin towers reborn.

10. Danilo Gallinari: A rookie version of Hedo is worth this spot…at least.

11. Jerryd Bayless: Would be in the rotation right away, though not at the 1. Not a good back court mate for Nelson either.

12. Donte Greene: More of a combo forward at this point, the guy can play. Could start at either the 3 or 4 spots for the Magic.

13. Tyler Hansbrough: Can the college player of the year please stand up!

14. Nicolas Batum: Great D and smooth game could translate big time in the NBA.

15. D.J. Augustin: One of the better point guards in college, he would make a great backup for Nelson.

16. Darren Collison: Again, another great point guard to play in a backup role for Nelson.

17. DeAndre Jordan: A Dwight clone, his skills are too good to have fallen any further. Only fits as a backup center though.

18. Darrell Arthur: Has great potential and could even jump in and start at the 4. Most likely a Battie replacement project though.

19. Marreese Speights: A strong body to give Dwight some help in the paint. Does not have the range that compliments Dwights game though.

20. Ty Lawson: There are a few more questions concerning him than the early guys taken, but still a solid pick.

21. Mario Chalmers: Plays great D and we’ve seen that he is not afraid to take the big shot.

22. Nick Calathes: Had a good year for Florida. Lacks some D but has great skill and potential.

23. Ryan Anderson: Has a great offensive game. Could actually be higher on this list if not for his lack of athleticism.

24. Robin Lopez: Not as good as his brother offensively, but great on D. Again, does not have the range to pair up with Dwight.

25. J. J. Hickson: Has athleticism and scoring to start at the 4, just not right away.

26. JaVale McGee: Ton of potential here, but still a project.

27. Serge Ibaka: Again, tons of potential but still a ways away.

28. Hasheem Thabeet: Looks like he could be a beast. We will see.

29. Roy Hibbert: See Thabeet.

30. Chris Douglas-Roberts: Love his game, but is he even an improvement over Redick? I doubt it.