Biedrins: Unappreciated and Undervalued 

Dick, you believe in me right? Right?

This article is meant to put Andris Biedrins past performance and contract into perspective. It seems as if people only remember how bad Andris was last season and forget how good he was the previous three, ignoring that Andris had a legit excuse for his poor play: injury. The "what have you done for me lately?" mentality has fans and Larry Riley looking to "dump" Andris and his contract to another team, but is that the right move?

To answer this question we will look at Andris' play measured by WP and WP48. All the data was taken from the Wins Produced Test Suite. This is important to note because the definition of "center" relates to any player who spent at least 50% of the time at center for their team. So this will include players like Pau, Boozer, Amare, etc. who played both PF and C for their teams.

WP48 (average player is .100)

2006 .150 #27 among centers (>500 min)

2007 .215 #15 among centers (>500 min)

2008 .301 #4 among centers (>500 min)

2009 .283 #5 among centers (>500 min)

2010 .205 #17 among centers (>500 min)

Those WP48 shows that even injured Biedrins is at worst a middle tier center and when healthy he is one of the best in the league in terms of WP48. 2006 is his career low but that was his 2nd season in the NBA. Looking from 2007 on will show you how good Andris has been as a starter for the Dub.

People look at the money Biedrins is making and wonder if he is worth that much to the Warriors so let's look at wins produced/million since his new contract came into effect (2009).

WP/Million

2009 1.22 win/million #15 among centers (>500 mins)

2010 .362 win/million #44 among centers (>500 mins)

Looking at these numbers does not tell the whole story because they include players on their rookie contracts. This will favor productive players on rookie deals such as Noah, Love, and Lee. In 2009, 9 out of the 14 centers ahead of Biedrins were still on their rookie contracts. If you throw those guys out Biedrins ranked #6 in wins produced/million among players on non-rookie deals. This means Biedrins provided more bang for the buck outside of McDyess, Przybilla, Howard, Okafor, and Camby in 2009. Even with rookie contracts factored Biedrins would be better than half the starting centers.

You can see 2010 was a disastrous year for Biedrins. I'm not even going to bother to determine what it is compared to those not on rookie deals because Biedrins sucked. People have to remember he played the whole season with a misdiagnosed injury. The previous 2 years of health and stable playing time would be a better barometer of Biedrins' play compared to last years injury plagued campaign.

However, the NBA doesn't base salaries on Wins Produced so let's see how Biedrins' contract fares in absolute terms compared to other players who played the center position as defined by Wins Produced Test Suite.

Overall Per Year Rank Among Centers

2009: #22 in millions per year

2010: #23 in millions per year

In 2009, Biedrins was a great value as the 22nd highest paid center but ranking 10th in Wins Produced (10.98 wins) and 5th in WP48. That production far exceeds his pay rank. The interesting thing is when you view Biedrins' 2010 season through comparison of salary. Biedrins was the 23rd highest paid center in the league and while the injury limited his overall contribution to only 3.26 wins, good for 33rd in Wins Produced (3.26), the quality of the minutes Biedrins did play in ranked 17th (WP48). So even in his injury plagued season Biedrins played well enough to justify his contract, but he did not play enough minutes to earn it.

Now this brings us to the present where Biedrins is the center of trade discussions involving Denver in a straight salary dump it appears for Kenyon Martin. Heading into 2011 Biedrins would be projected as the 18th-19th highest paid center in the league with Dirk, Amare, Bosh, and Boozer commanding more than 9 million with their new contracts and David Lee probably receiving a contract similar to Biedrins. Jermaine O'Neal, Shaq, Brad Miller, and Z would be the only FA centers paid more than Biedrins last year who most likely won't eclipse his 9 million annual salary in 2011.

Since Biedrins became a starter in 2007 he has ranked in Wins Produced as follows:

Wins Produced

2007: 10.67 #12

2008: 13.03 #7

2009: 10.98 #10 vs #22 in salary

2010: 3.26 #33 vs #23 in salary

Now to me that looks like the previous 3 years were similar and 2010 appears to be an aberration due to injury. Despite how bad he was last season, when Andris played he was worth the money (#17 WP48 vs #23 contract). When you look back at his career as a starter Biedrins has ranked no worse than 15th in either WP or W48, but is slated to be only the 18th or 19th highest paid center. In the future, his salary should remain in the same range with players like Noah, Horford, Kendrick Perkins, etc all receiving new deals.

Considering Biedrins' past WP and WP48 it is a safe bet that a healthy Biedrins should outplay his 18th or 19th richest center contract in 2011. So why again are we dumping his salary if it's nearly impossible to replace his production at center by spending the same amount of cash? The only way to get more bang for your buck is drafting a 10/10/60FG% rookie big man or trading for someone like Dwight Howard. Both scenarios are difficult to do, so it doesn't make sense to dump a player who has a history of playing at a higher level then he is paid for.

After looking at his contract in comparison with other centers it looks like Biedrins is not OVERPAID, but UNDERPAID! "Dumping" his salary is giving another team a productive player at below cost. While Biedrins isn't the best center in the league he is far from the worst when healthy (Remember Dampier and Foyle?) and his contract is hardly dead weight. Give him year to rebound into form and he'll go from salary dump to a legitimate trade chip that could get more in return than insurance money... that is if we still want to dump him.

BONUS: Just for those wondering how Biedrins stacks up using PER and Win Score. Using B-R.com this provides a smaller pool of "centers" compared to the Wins Produced Test Suite (listed at center vs play center at least 50% of time) so you can't directly compare it to the salary rankings listed above. However, again it shows when healthy Andris is in the top half of centers and arguably Top 7.

PER (center > 500 min according to B-R)

2006: 13.6 #25

2007: 16.2 #13

2008: 19.2 #4

2009: 19.1 #5

2010: 13 #26

WS (center > 500 min according to B-R)

2006: 2.9 #24

2007: 6.7 #6

2008: 8.0 #5

2009: 5.4 #14

2010: 1.6 #31

Thanks for the REC!

Nelson and 23 year olds: 2 OLD 2 BE GR8?

Is this the suit that impressed the Dubs brass?

Ever since the moment the Warriors fell to the #6 pick most Warrior fans and analysts saw the Warriors adding a 20 year old C/PF who could pass with the best of them, make smart basketball decisions, and who had enough size and girth to give us the "beef" we've been looking for. Instead of drafting Greg Monroe, who was theirs for the taking, the Warriors disappointed many fans by selecting Ekpe Udoh despite being by all accounts everything the Warriors need: a big man with an NBA body who is defensive minded, can snag rebounds, defend the rim, and can space the floor on offense with his jump shot. So why did a chorus of boos fill Oracle at the draft party? Because of:

23

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Maggette Trade and Wins Produced

3 on 1? No way I'm passing it!

Getting rid of Maggette has been one of the things Warriors fans have been dreaming about since they inked him using BD money. The desire to get rid of Maggette only intensified after his first season where we witnessed the ball hog, no defense mentality that drove Mike Dunleavy Sr mad. However a funny thing happened last year to endear him to some fans: Maggette decreased his jump shots (65% to 58% according to 82games) and instead started taking it to the rim (35% to 42%) which resulted in a jump in his TS% from 58.2% to a career high 61.5%. Not only was he uber efficient but he passed the ball a bit more and was the consummate professional. Now that Maggette has been traded for two scrubs there are those who are actually disturbed by the trade despite the financial savings because Maggette was so good last year.

So is it true that this is another cost-cutting move by Cohan that will weaken the product on the court or could it truly be a case of addition by subtraction?

***IF YOU DON'T CARE/UNDERSTAND/HATE Wins Produced save everyone the trouble and stop reading***

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REAL-IZING RANDOLPH

Skies the limit?

Anthony Randolph.

Bring that name up amongst Warrior fans and you would hear a wide range of opinions. Some would proclaim the lanky and explosive forward is destined for multiple trips to the All*Star Game and others would say we should send him packing for Kevin Love or the chance to draft Cousins, Favors, Johnson, or Monroe. So who is right? There is no doubt that Randolph is the key to the Warriors future but is it grabbing rebounds and blocking shots with the Bay Bridge across his chest or is it as a poker chip in Riley's game versus other GMs? In order to answer this question we need to get a REALISTIC picture of where Randolph is after two seasons and what he can become.

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DON NELSON DOESN'T PLAY ROOKIES II

Last off-season I brought you guys the ground breaking and 7th most popular fan post of all time, An In-Depth Study: Don Nelson Doesn't Play Rookies. If you haven't read that piece you should take the time to read the study that looked backed at EVERY single rookie Don Nelson has coached because it serves as the basis for this article. The study destroyed the myth that Nelson doesn't play rookies based on an irrational hatred but the trends that emerged also suggested the playing time Nellie doled out to players during their rookie and sophomore seasons correlated with the career quality of the player. In this article, I will apply the findings from the previous study to create realistic expectations for the young guys, what the Warriors should do with each young player, and upside/downside comparisons based on career MPG, projected career quality, and advanced statistics from basketball-reference.com (links provided).

Continue reading this post »

Game 82 Not So Meaningless

Who would have thought us Warrior fans would actually have a rooting interest in the final game of a .300 season? However, due to the Warriors .500 play for the last 10 games the we find ourselves at an interesting dilemma: lose the game and the Dubs are potentially tied with WAS and/or SAC for 3rd worst record, win and fall to 5th worst, or worst yet, a Dub win coupled with a DET loss @ MIN will give us the averaged odd of 5th/6th worst records.

At first glance it looks like the Warriors would be better served to tank the game but what is truly the difference between the scenarios (Data taken from NBA Draft Lottery Wiki)?

Chance at #1 pick

GSW loss/WAS win = 2-Way Tie for 3rd = 13.75%
GSW loss/WAS loss = 3-Way Tie for 3rd = 12.1%
GSW win/WAS win/DET win = 2-Way tie for 4th = 10.35%
GSW win/WAS win/DET loss = 3-Way tie for 4th =  9%
GSW win/WAS loss/DET win = 5th worst = 8.8%
GSW win/WAS loss/DET loss = 2-Way tie for 5th = 7.55%

Net difference WIN/LOSS = 13.75% - 7.55% = 6.2%
To sum it up a Warrior win tonight could potentially be worth decreasing our shot at the #1 pick by nearly half.

So what about a chance at a Top 3 pick (this data disregards ties)?

3rd worst = 46.9%

4th worst = 45.8%

5th worst = 29.2 %

Net difference WIN/LOSS = 46.9%-29.2% = 17.7%

Depending on the ties the final % will be +/- a few points but a win tonight could increase the Warriors chances of dropping out of the Top 3 from about 50% to about 70%.

Looking purely at % it looks like the Warriors would be best served in tanking the game but what has actually occured in the past since the weighted lottery in 1990?

Teams that have won the lottery since 1990 (Math Odd/Actual Hit Rate):

1st worst (3): 1990 ORL, 2003 CLE, 2004 ORL (25%/15%)
2nd worst (4): 1992 ORL, 1994 MIL, 1996 PHI, 2009 LAC (19.9%/20%)
3rd worst (4): 1997 SA, 1998 LAC, 1999 CHI, 2001 WAS (15.6%/20%)
4th worst: NONE (11.9%/0%)
5th worst (4): 1991 CHA, 1995 GSW, 2002 HOU, 2006 TOR (8.8%/20%)
6th worst (2): 2005 MIL, 2007 POR (6.3%/10%)
7th worst (1) 2000 NJN (4.3%/5%)
8th worst: NONE (2.8%/0%)
9th worst (1): 2008 CHI (1.7%/5%)
10th worst: NONE (1.1%/0%)
11th worst (1): 1993 ORL (0.8%/5%)
12th-14th: Never won lottery

So what does this all mean? Based on percentages the Warriors should tank this game, but if you have the heart of a gambler, frequent casinos, and/or come up with some other rationalization to disregard the percentages, past draft history shows that the 5th worst record has won the lottery more than the worst and 4th worst teams and just the same as the 2nd and 3rd worst.

So what are you going to do?

Cheer for a Warrior win that could put us in 4th which the gambler would say, "It's gotta hit this year" or 5th which the gambler would say, "5th is just as good as 2nd or 3rd worst and better than 1st worst" or cheer for a Warrior loss which would put us in 3rd giving us the best percentages possible and the gamblers rationalzation?

After all that I really don't care because we are the Warriors and somehow we'll get screwed in the lottery.

Match Ups

WAS vs IND
DET @ MIN
GSW @ POR

So I'm editing this post because Jae has successfully answered my question and I didn't want to spam the boards.

I love talking hoops and I love debating about basketball, but most debates especially here on GSOM, usually come from two points of view: the arm chair scouts, those who rely on their observations/opinions and the "stat geeks", those who use stats as the end all be all. When these two sides get together to debate a player it generates a discussion along the divisive lines of: republicans vs democrats, religion vs atheists/agnostics, 2Pac vs Biggie. etc. Basically, it just gets plain ugly.

Like I said below I've been attempting to further educate myself regarding the strengths and weakness of all these advance stats that people are throwing around: PER, Wins Produced, Wins Shared, Roland ratings, and +/-. Many posts on GSOM cite these statistics in our discussions and there are those who swear by these statistics and those who simply just swear at these statistics. Luckily in my personal search for enlightenment I came across a series of blogs describing the what each of these statistics do, their strengths and weakness, and the proper applications of the stats. I found them so helpful and easy to understand that I am bringing it to GSOM in hopes that everyone can read these blogs, learn from them, and that we can all increase our knowledge and level of discussion. 

So I encourage everyone stat geeks and arm char scouts to read these blogs by Andre "The Professor" Snellings that were published a year ago on rotowire.

Advanced Stat Primer

Can Math Help You Understand Basketball?

PER

+/-

ORTG/DRTG

Win Shares

Wins Produced

Roland Rating

Hopefully, everyone can read these articles and we can increase the level of discussion regarding whether or not Anthony Tolliver is better than Reggie Williams.

----------------------------

I love using statistics as much as anyone and I've been trying to get a better understanding of some of the commonly used statistics. First up is John Hollinger's PER which many stat geeks do not like because of the arbitrary weights to certain categories and after reading into PER, I have come to value the stat less than WP and Wins Shared. While I agree with most of what D. Berri says regarding the flaws of PER in his blog, I am having trouble understanding this assertion that PER rewards inefficient shooting. 

The same critique offered for NBA Efficiency also applies to Hollinger’s PERs, except the problem is even worse. Hollinger argues that each two  rpoint field goal made is worth about 1.65 points. A three point field goal made is worth 2.65 points. A missed field goal, though, costs a team 0.72 points.

Given these values, with a bit of math we can show that a player will break even on his two point field goal attempts if he hits on 30.4% of these shots. On three pointers the break-even point is 21.4%. If a player exceeds these thresholds, and virtually every NBA played does so with respect to two-point shots, the more he shoots the higher his value in PERs. So a player can be an inefficient scorer and simply inflate his value by taking a large number of shots.

By solving the simple equations, I get  very different percentages regarding the break even point:

X =  FGM, Y = FGA

1.65x=0.72y for 2 pt FGs the break even point is roughly 43.7% vs Berri's stated 30.4%

2.65x=0.72y for 3 pt FGs the break even point is 27.7% vs Berri's stated 21.4%

So why is there a discrepancy? Not that this would make PER a superior stat to Wins Produced but I think it would give it more credibility when the break even point for 2 PT FG% is 43.7 vs 08-09 lg average of 48.5% and 27.7% for 3s vs 36.7% instead of the % that Berri is touting.

So can someone please explain to me the "bit of math" that Berri is talking about where he got those low % to break even?

This is a post to track and get the attention of the guys who signed up for the GSOM Auction League/Flawless Fantasy Basketball League. The other thread got dropped off the front page and this is only way I can contact those who signed up.

Here's the original thread: GSOM Fantasy Auction League Sign Up

Invites were sent out on Friday. To those who got invites you have until next Friday, Oct 16, to join the league or else you will risk losing your spot in the league to the replacement players:

Replacements:

- GoldenStateGurrero

- dubzero23

- bizz192

Invites who need to join:

- ejdacanay

- MJW in -The City-

- GarciaWarriors8

- Mr. Monday Night

- mekanikal

- RayAlmeda

- pre10d

- bojangles408

Invites Joined:

- mcwalter44

-  JRich4MVP

- b.radley

So check the e-mail you guys provided and join or else I will find a replacement for you. If any new players are interested in joining just signup below with the following info.

e-mail:

age:

Fantasy experience:

Fantasy Basketball Leagues This Year (not including this one):

Hey guys lots of other fantasy basketball leagues out there, but I'm hoping to offer something different from you standard fare. This league will be for hardcore fantasy basketball fans. The plan is for this year to be a 20 team auction so people get used to it and hopefully transition into a contract league next year (rules are in process). By then people should have some idea regarding the auction draft and the unique scoring system in order to create a great foundation for the contract league. I would also have an idea of the capabilities of ESPN Auction leagues so that we know what we can and cant do regarding the contract league. So here's the info regarding the league this year. Nothing is set in stone... just trying to see how many GSOM players are interested.

- 20 Owners (Consisting of my regular non-FBG fantasy crew (all active owners) and about 10-12 GSOMers)
- Free
- ESPN.com Fantasy Basketball will be the host (only site offering live auction).
- 20 week regular season, 3 week playoffs - 8 teams (Championship held 1 week earlier than end of NBA season to limit the impact of NBA playoff teams resting players)
- 15 man rosters, 8 active - PG, SG, SF, PF, C, 3xUTL (mimics 8 man rotation), 7 bench (large roster but testing for contract league purpose).
- Head 2 Head Points System a la Fantasy Football... total points for week wins.

Tentative Scoring System:

PTS = 1
REB = 1.5
AST = 1.5
STLS = 2
BLKS = 2
TO = -1.5
FGA = -1
FGM= 1
FTA= -1
FTM = 1

So say LBJ scores 20 pts (7-14 FG) (5-6 FT), 8 ast, 8 rebs, 1 stl, 1 blk, 4 TOs he would produce a score of 34 total points [(20) + (-7) + (-1) + (12) + (12) + (2) + (2) + (-6)]. This is a great system as it accounts for volume scoring, poor percentages, and TOs. I'm interested in hearing league input regarding the scoring system (ESPN only go to the tenth or 0.1).

I can guarantee that this league will be full of active owners and as you can see this is part of a larger vision to truly test our fantasy basketball skills by creating a 20 team contract league next season. SO ACTIVE AND DEDICATED OWNERS ONLY! I'll create a sign up list based on first come first serve. Not sure exactly how many GSOMers I can take as I'm giving priority to my real life friends, but I think I should have about 10-12 slots give or take a few.

When you sign up please list the day and time (specify time zone, I am i pacific) that would be best for you to auction. I'm shooting for Tuesday the Monday or Tuesday night or the 19th or 26th at 8 PM pacific.

Please reply by filling out this info:

E-mail:

Age:

Draft Time/Preference:

Fantasy Experience:

Peace.

FLAxWLESS

Sign Up List

1. Jrich4mvp

2. ejdacanay

Grading Warriors Off-Season:  The 2009 Edition

via assets.sbnation.com

Last off-season I took a look at the moves the Warriors made and graded Mullin on each individual transaction and gave him an overall grade for the season. Little did we know that that would be the last off-season that Mullin would preside over in Oakland as he was replaced by Larry Riley. Not only has the decision marker changed but the circumstances the Warriors find themselves under this off-season could not be any different. Last year the Warriors were under the cap and had numerous players up for extensions. This off-season the Warriors are nearing the luxury tax with $60 million committed to 13 players. Unlike last season where the circumstances gave Mullin more flexibility and ability to impact the roster, Riley finds himself trying to improve the team with one arm tied behind his back. So with the proper perspective let's get on the way of reviewing the off-season.

Continue reading this post »

An In-Depth Study: Don Nelson Doesn't Play Rookies.....

Rookies!?!

The Warriors have undergone a tremendous amount of transformation the past couple of years. We went from an up and coming playoff team only to return back to the familiar lottery faster than Monta Ellis can go on a moped. Gone is the golden buzz-cut of Mully, whom Nellie helped fight alcoholism as a player. In his place is the salt and pepper doo of Larry Riley, Nellie's drinking buddy. The face of the franchise is no longer the bearded smile of Baron Davis and the scowling face of Cap'n Jack but the baby faced trio of Monta Ellis, Anthony Randolph, and Stephen Curry.

That youth and potential has played a large part in turning the fans against the one man who remains at the center of all the success and madness..... Don Nelson. Nellie was a godsend from Maui when he led the Warriors to the playoffs, but due to a losing record and questionable rotations most Warrior fans are praying that Nellie takes the 5 hour trip to Maui on a one-way ticket.

Last season, many Warrior fans questioned why Wright, Randolph, Belinelli, and Morrow sat on the bench while Jackson, Maggette, and Crawford led the Warriors into the lottery. Detractors proposed that if you are going to lose you might as well lose with young players. This mentality only became stronger once Randolph and Morrow flourished with extended minutes late in the season. Detractors repeat that Nelson's distaste for young players stunted their growth because he was reluctant to give them game time. As the losses mounted and the 1st and 2nd year players continued to ride the pine, Warrior fans began to wish for the firing of Don Nelson. Suddenly, the man who led the team to the playoffs for the first time in 12 years was now the last coach many fans would want guiding the youngest team in the NBA.

Continue reading this post »

The Amare Trade and EWA

You can't say that Larry Riley isn't trying to improve the team given the trade talks that had emerged at the draft. Trading for Amare is a bold move considering the superstar talent Amare possesses, but as we know teams don't trade superstar talent away just because they are unhappy. So what will Amare do for the Warriors? How does the rumored trade affect the Warriors on the basketball court? Is it worth it?  In this post we'll look at the impact of the trade on the team's EWA and try to determine if it's worth it. **Jae just beat me by a day in getting this out (a great post by the way) but another viewpoint doesn't hurt**

Refresher on EWA

In case you missed it here is the link my initial post regarding EWA and applying to the Warriors. If you haven't read it before than take the time to do so now, in order to help gain a better understanding of this post.

EWA and the Warriors

A quick refresher on the findings of the report that is pertinent to discussing the trade.

1)      Rule of 45/8 - Most playoff teams had total of 45 EWA and Top 5 Avg of 8 EWA/player

2)      With the Warriors lineup as is they are projected to break the 45/8 barrier meaning they would be in the playoff chase.

Finding #2 is why this trade proposal causes great discomfort amongst Warrior fans. With all the injuries last year we haven't seen what this young team is capable of doing. As Dub fans we have learned to live and actually come to love the concept of potential and a better future although we have seen that could take a decade to realize.

The Chart of Information

Most of the info I will be referring to is on this chart. So open the link and keep it handy.

Amare EWA Chart

Biedrins vs Amare

I love Biedrins as a player but anyway you look at it there should be no question WHEN healthy and in a run and gun system just who is a better player.

Looking at their estimated EWAs as centers (Amare's 08-09 EWA is higher than what is listed on ESPN because it is calculated as a PF) we see the huge disparity in EWA over the past 3 years since Amare has returned from microfracture surgery averaging 16.21 EWA as a center compared to Biedrins who has averaged 7.76 EWA. That's more than double the value that Andris brings to a team. If you want to look at PER ratings, Amare's worst season since returning from injury (last year) is still better than Andris' best season in his 5 year career (last year).

People like to make a big deal about the loss in rebounding and shot blocking but Amare averages 9 rebounds and 1.5 blks for his career (high 2.1/ blks and 9.6 rebounds) compared to Andris who averaged 8.2 rebounds and 1.2 blks (high 1.7/blks and 11.2 rebounds). Andris averages are weighted down by his early career numbers and I'll concede Andris is a better defender than Amare but the difference in defense is smaller than the wide gap on the offensive end. Amare scores more points, has a great FT% for a big man, and has the ability to score away from the key.

Some may look at the 08-09 numbers and point to it as evidence that Amare is slipping as their EWAs and PER were so close, but what it shows to me is that Amare's floor is Biedrins ceiling. At this point in their careers I don't think either man will improve significantly. Pretty much what we see now is what we'll get: Amare can be a Top 5 player in the NBA while Biedrins can be a Top 5 center. Which one would you rather have?

The Trade and Warrior's EWA

I don't think anyone would turn down an Amare for Biedrins deal straight up, but the reality is that in order to acquire a talent like Amare we have to give up talent. From the various media reports we know the working parts of the deal is Amare for Biedrins, Belinelli, Wright, and Bukie, Curry, or both.

The Upper Left box shows the Warriors projected EWA. I took out Watson's numbers and plugged in Curry/Law using Law's dreadful 10.68 PER from last year. The numbers used to project Amare's EWA are realistic and attainable, IMO. I used 33 mpg (career 34 mpg) which totals just above 2700 (he hasn't played more than 2700 since he returned for surgery) and used his average PER from the past 3 season. Without Amare the Dubs would still be a 45/8 team, but any trade acquiring Amare would increase the Warriors' Top 5 average to around 10 EWA per Top 5 player which would put the Warriors behind only the Lakers and Cavaliers. If you read the last post the Warriors weakness shown by EWA was not overall team talent but the lack of a superstar player/talent in the starting 5. Adding Amare even if it involved Biedrins, Belinelli, Wright, Bukie, AND Curry would result in a fearsome starting 5 that is a lock for playoffs and IMO a legitimate threat to the Western Conference Finals, but will our bench be good enough?

Most NBA coaches prefer an 8 man rotation and of all those possible combinations my ideal trade for Amare would be what ESPN reported. Amare for Biedrins, Belinelli, and Wright would leave a bench of Maggette, Morrow, Turiaf, and Curry. That is a solid bench rotation that gives you a little bit of everything: instant offense, a sharpshooter, a solid big, and a young combo guard.

My second option and take it or leave it trade would be Biedrins, Belinelli, Wright, and Bukie for Amare. This would weaken the bench as either Morrow or Maggette would be forced into the starting 5, but it would still be decent with Morrow/Maggette to back up the 2/3, Turiaf to back up the PF/C, and Curry/Law to take time at the 1 and 2 spots. Given how high Nelson is on Curry this would still produce a legitimate 8 man NBA rotation. Bukie is a solid NBA player but we have someone similar (albeit more expensive) in Maggette.

If we added to the trade Curry but left out Bukie we'd have decent depth as a team but you'd rely on Law/Watson as your primary back ups at PG and miss out on the closest thing to Steve Nash as Nelson says. Adding Bukie and Curry is just asking for trouble as we'd have to rely on Law and camp fodder to fill that 8th spot in the rotation after Morrow/Maggs and Turiaf.

So should we do the trade?

If it costs nothing more than Biedrins, Bukie, Wright, and Belinelli I would do trade for Amare if we can reach a long term agreement. Aside from the long term agreement and parting possibly with Curry (not gonna happen) every other complaint about the Amare trade does not overshadow his major positive - a legitimate Top 5 NBA player.

1) That's too many players to trade for one guy - If basketball were 10 vs 10 then you guys may have a valid complaint but only 5 people can play at a time. Also most NBA coaches and players prefer the stability afforded by an 8 man NBA rotation. The Warriors have a squad full of NBA rotation players (only team with + EWA for every player) but even adding Bukie we are only losing 1 projected rotation player (Bukie) as Amare and Andris cancel and Belinelli and Wright are not Nelson favorites.

2) Wright, Belinelli, Bukie, and Biedrins have potential - The dreaded word of potential. These guys do have potential but in my estimation none have the Top 5 player in the NBA potential that Amare possesses and has already proven he can be. Second, you can only realize your potential with game time and Wright and Belinelli would have gotten none barring injuries. Morrow and Randolph have overtaken both in the rotation and the plans of the franchise and justifiably so. 

3) 2008-09 shows Amare is declining - I don't think that true at all. I think the biggest reason was the dysfunction in Phoenix. Once D'Antoni was fired the Suns lost their identity and tried to become a defensive team and work in some half court offense to cater to Shaq. What's funny is that the Suns two best players, Nash and Amare, are adverse to defense and the half court. Put Amare in a run and gun offense and you'll see the return of a beast.

4) He is a superstar entering his prime but he is injury prone and has a bad attitude - Does this sound familiar? It's so similar it's scary. Last time we traded for a young superstar that was injury prone and had a bad attitude it worked out quite well with BD. Amare flourished under D'Antoni and he should do the same under Nellie who coaches the style that suits Amare the best and is able to manage and connect to strong personalities like BD and Jackson.  

Conclusion

The rumored trade for Amare is one about quality over quantity. Yes, we are giving up a lot of players but as long as we don't give up Curry and can reach a long term agreement, its well worth it IMO.

Biedrins is a very good center but does not have the potential of Amare, Belinelli and Wright are expendable as non-rotation players (you can argue withe Nelson if you want), and Bukie is undrafted FA who turned into a solid NBA player. You don't pass up a Top 5 NBA player who would single-handedly address ours issue regarding a post presence and superstar player because of Wright, Belinelii, and Bukie.

Yes there are risks, like is he Kenyon Martin 2.0 (becomes a role player once they don't have a playmaking PG), but considering the pieces we are giving up and what would be left on the team it's worth it for a chance at a dominating big who was born to play in Nellie's system. The last time we had such a player we traded him for potential - Tom Gugliotta and three 1st rounders. Hmmm.... so similar to the proposed Biedrins, Wright (1st rounder), Belinelli (1st rounder), and Bukie trade that some are against. I guess some Warrior Fans never learn, hopefully Nelson has.

To put it simply Amare is the difference between fighting for the 7th or 8th seed or fighting for home court advantage in the 1st round. Considering the asking price for Bosh is Biedrins/Ellis + Randolph, I'd take Biedrins + scrubs for Amare in a heart beat.

Luckily for us, Riley and Nelson are in the driver's seat in trading with Phoenix. We can play hardball knowing that other teams have to match our offer (unlikely) and that we don't need Amare as much as Kerr wants to get rid of him. The longer this drags the cheaper Amare's price will become and we'll see exactly whether the Suns think they can do better with 16 million in cap space when Amare opts out compared to Biedrins, Wright, Belinelli, and Bukie.

EWA and the Warriors!

Any playoff hopes the Warriors had during the 08-09 season were destroyed the moment the team learned Monta Ellis injured his ankle in Mopedgate. The franchise crushing injury was just the first of many injuries that plagued the Warriors during the 08-09 season as the team rarely had their projected starting five of Monta, Jackson, Magette, Wright, and Biedrins on the floor at the same time and found themselves struggling to field enough players to play a game.

Many Warrior fans have pointed to injuries as the cause of the Warriors dismal record, but just how good could the Warriors have been last year with a healthy Monta Ellis? Would we be a playoff team? A championship caliber team? What can we expect from the Warriors for next season? What steps should the team make to become a playoff team? A championship caliber team? Should we trade for Chris Bosh? Amare? Boozer? Would Andre Miller push the Warriors like Billups did in Denver? These are all questions that Warriors fans find themselves asking as we watch the 2nd season unfold.

Luckily for us we are living in an age where every statistic you can think of is being created and tracked and this season John Hollinger introduced to us the Estimated Win Added (EWA) statistic. The statistic intrigued me and like any basketball fan I looked at how each of the players on my favorite team did. Then, I wanted to see how the Warriors stacked up with the Lakers and how it looked compared to the Kings. From there I ended up compiling the EWA of every player who qualified (need to play at least 500 minutes) on each NBA team. Compiling the data took some time but the information I have obtained from the data has been eye opening. It has been so informative it will help answer almost every question that Warrior fans have been asking themselves since this terrible season ended. It's a long read but hopefully you all appreciate the work and make this the most rec'd fan post ever.

Continue reading this post »

The season has ended, so now it's time to review the moves the Warriors made prior to this season and give them a final grade. It was a hard season Warrior fans, so hopefully we can take some of the few positives as we head into the '09 Off-Season.

Below is the link to the mid-season review for those who need a refreshed of the original grades and what was said at the mid-term.

Mid-Season Review of Off-Season Moves

Here she blows...

Continue reading this post »

Hollinger Most Similar….

Just thought this would be a fun quick read. I was looking at Warrior stats at ESPN, checking out PERs and what not and started reading the Hollinger player profiles and thought it would be a fun quick read to see who each player is most similar like at the age. I apologize if this has been done before.

Starting 5

Monta Ellis = Tony Parker

Jamal Crawford = Mitch Richmond

Stephen Jackson = Steve Smith

Anthony Randolph = N/A

Andris Biedrins = Eddy Curry

6th man

Corey Maggette = Paul Pierce

Bench

Kelenna Azubuike = Dion Glover

Ronny Turiaf = Theo Ratliff

Marcus Williams = Kenyon Dooling

CJ Watson = N/A

Marco Belinelli = N/A

Jamareo Davidson = N/A

Rob Kurz = N/A

Anthony Morrow = N/A
Brandan Wright = N/A

As Warrior fans we were heart broken and angry ever since we learned of Monta's injury that would ultimately cost him half the NBA season. We’ve seen the team go from 48 wins to being on pace for something in the 20s.

So how big of a role does Monta play in all of this? Will he truly make an impact? If he does what should we expect from the Warriors franchise player? Those are the questions many of us have so I’ll attempt to answer them.

First question is statistically how is this team doing compared to last seasons team?

STAT: current (last season)

 

Scoring margin: -4.9 (+2.2)

PPG: 107.4 (111.0)

Fastbreak: 17.1 (22.5)

Points in Paint: 43.9 (47.6)

eFG%: 49.1% (51.1%)

3 PT (m/a): 6.5/18.2 (9.3/26.6)

FT (m/a): 22.8/29.8 (18.8/24.9)

AST: 20.6 (22.4)

BLK: 6.5 (4.7)

STL: 8.0 (9.1)

TO: 14.6 (13.0)

REBD: 29.9 (30.4)

REBO: 12.5 (12.7)

Possession/Game: 102.3 (102.4)

Offensive Efficiency: 1.049 (1.084)

Defensive Efficiency: 1.097 (1.066)

 

So what’s do we make of all those stats?

The 08-09 Warriors compared to the 07-08 team is performing fairly similar to the BD and Monta led squad. The 08-09 edition plays at the same pace, rebounds about the same, shoots less 3 pointers, blocks more shots, and drives it to the lane more than last season’s 48 win squad. Compared to last year it has not put as many points as past teams in the paint, fast break, or total, has fewer assists, steals, and more TOs. Also the efficiency numbers are down too. However, aside from the scoring drop all the other stats are fairly close to last seasons and many people worried about assists dropping because of losing BD but we are averaging only 2 less assist per game, but that has improved since Crawford came aboard and Nelson instituted the motion offense. So assists is not a big issue.

Bottom line is the Warriors this season stack up fairly well statistically to the 48 win team that had BD AND MONTA. It can be pretty safe to assume that Crawford/Maggette/Bench Mob has filled in reasonably well for BD/Harrington/Ellis as the main rotation players.  So we can get a fairly good reading of how Monta Ellis will impact the Warriors upon his return to his former self.

1) Fast break points

Before I looked up any numbers just from my observation one of the ingredients the Warriors are missing this year is fast break points. The lack of easy points in transition really kills the Warriors. How many times have we seen botched fast breaks? I couldn’t tell you how many times we have 2 on 1 or 3 on 2s that result in a horrible shot or a TO.

People may attribute that to the fact that we don’t have BD to run the floor but I think the bigger factor is we don’t have the 1 man fast break to turn an outlet pass into a quick and easy 2. Monta makes the fast break easy to run…. just get him the damn ball (I think we all agree even Maggette can do that if he’s willing).

Here are the numbers from 82games.com and teamrankings.com

Team PPG:

Last season: 111.0

This season: 107.4

 

http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stats/?cat=team&pan=2052

 

Fastbreak points scored:

Last season: 22.5 (1st)

This season: 17.1 (3rd)

 

Fastbreak points allowed:

Last season: 13.9 (27th)

This season: 15.7 (30th)

 

82games.com

 

Shot Clock 0-10 seconds used:

Last season: 46.0 pts

This season: 41.7 pts

 

As you can see our overall points has dropped 3.6 ppg, our fast break points has dropped from 22.5 to 17.1 a whopping 5.3 pts per game less, and from 82games.com you can also see our points scored during the 1st 10 seconds of the shot clock has dropped 4.3 pts per game. Right now our point differential is -4.9 pts per game. So it seems that quick and easy fast break points are lacking.

So how does Monta fit in all of this? I couldn’t find fastbreak points per player so I used 82games 0-10 seconds as a barometer:

Monta Ellis - 58.9 eFG% (#3), 9.3 pts/game (#1)

 

Those were his numbers last year for 0-10 seconds and where he would rank if inserted into this years team. He would be #1 in 0-10 seconds points with 9.1/game and #3 in eFG% on those shots. Those are great but his true value shows when you look at them compared to the team now. While Crawford is #2 at 8.6 ppg his eFG% is only 49.6%!!! That’s nearly 10% less than Monta. Than you check out his FG% at #3 is nice but if you compare it to Wright and Biedrins, Monta nearly triples Wright (3.6 ppg) and almost doubles Biedrins (5.4 ppg) in output.

So we’re talking about inserting OUR FASTBREAK OFFENSE HERE! Monta scores in bulk and at such a high efficiency. So immediately expect the Warriors fast break numbers to increase and we’ll see less of those botched opportunities. Thank god.

2) FG%

Ellis connected on 53.1% of his FG while scoring 20 points per game. He’d rank behind Biedrins and Wright if you assumed he’d produce at the same clip and that is highly impressive given how many shots Monta Ellis gets. Anytime you add an efficient scorer to the team it should only help. Again, if we shoot more efficient we give up less rebounds and that should help our transition defense.

3) Rebounding

If Monta continues to rebound to last season’s average he’d rank #3 on our team behind Biedrins’ 12 and Maggs’ 6.1. Currently the team is averaging roughly the same amount of rebounds as last season so adding Monta will be a boost especially out of the PG/SG position. Getting 5 from there every night means less second chance points for the opponents and more fast break opportunities for the Dubs.    

4) Assists

Last season Monta averaged 3.9 ast/game with BD dominating the ball. Even with that paltry average Monta would rank #3 behind S-Jax and Crawford this season. I don’t think it’s a stretch to assume without BD that those numbers should increase. Again Monta should only help the Warriors out and like I mentioned earlier ball movement isn’t a big deal IMO as others suggest now that we have the motion offense.

5) Steals

Right now his 1.5 stl per game from last season would rank as #1 on the Warriors just barely edging out Jackson. Another bonus to the team as more TOs means more opportunities to get out in transition.

Conclusion

Looking at the statistics Monta would shore up the Warriors' biggest deficiency and biggest difference from last years success: scoring. He’d also help the other categories that have experienced a drop off from last year such as squad such as rebs, ast, stls, and more importantly FG%. I mean just look at where Monta would rank on our team if he produced to his season averages from last season:

FG% #3, PTS #1, REBS #3, AST, #3, STL #1

People often think of Monta as just a scorer because he is an ELITE offensive force but he also helps the Warriors in other categories as well. Now, this doesn’t mean the Warriors will march into the playoffs this season (I doubt with Monta they can win 30 out of the next 39 games – unless they improve rebounding and defense – not Monta’s forte) or that Monta is going to produce at the level he did last year immediately, but there is hope Warrior fans.

All signs point to Monta having a successful recovery and that should give hope to Warrior fans for a competitive team for the remainder of this season due to addition of Monta, the shift from chucking 3 pointers to driving it to the rim, and the improved bench play (one of the benefits from the injuries). Next season it wouldn’t be hard to expect the Warriors to battle for playoff contention with the current roster (as flawed as it may be) because the stats seem to show the difference between a 48 win team and a 26 win team is a little Monta Magic.

So the half way mark of the season has come and the Warriors are sitting at 12-29 and looking nothing like the borderline playoff contender that I had imagined after the Warriors Off-Season moves. I'll be going through the moves from my post during the off-season that can be read here.

So here she blows:

1) Not re-signing Baron Davis

I don't know about you, but during our playoff push last year I began to wish Nelson didn't give BD so much leeway. With each 3 pointer he chucked, instead of taking it to the rack and his matador defense trying to go for pokes... I began to hate him. The one sequence that sticks in my head is against the Nuggets in a do or die game for the final playoff spot... sometime in the late 3rd/early 4th the Warriors down by 4 points or so had 3 defensive stops in a row... sadly the defense went for nothing as BD launched 3 pointers instead of working for a better shot. After that time I knew that we got the best out of BD the year before... the unstoppable bowling ball during the last month of the season and in the playoffs.

Next season our win total maybe lower, but that extra year of experience without BD will do wonders for Ellis, Biedrins, and the rest of the young guys as they learn to win in the NBA and gain experience a steh go-to guys... this could lead to more wins in the future.

GRADE: B .. Next season we will suffer, but it will pay off in the future.

Mid-Season Grade: B

Hard to make this an "A" given how poorly the Warriors are doing but I believe that is more a function of injuries and losing Monta than losing BD. However, one just has to look at what BD is doing in Clipperland to see that once BD gets his money he reverts back to the injury prone and still horribly shooting BD. He's missed the past two weeks with a bruised assbone for christ's sakes!!! Again, the last two seasons in a Warrior uniform were the best we were going to ever get from BD and that amounted to a 2nd round playoff berth and followed by a 48 win team that missed the playoffs. Like Kenny Rogers sings, "You gotta know when to hold, know when to fold 'em, know when to walk away, know when to run." This is one of the few decisons that Rowell has gotten right.

2) Offering Brand and GA Max contracts

These were genius moves by Mullin. Had he landed either player the Warriors would've been a lock for playoffs IMO.. with that said and as much as it hurts to say this as Gilbert Arenas is my favorite player... Brand would've been a much better fit for the Warriors. I'd much rather pay 100 million for a stud big man who can do it all than perimeter oriented scorer (as clutch as GA is).

GRADE: Brand (A) - Well worth the shot and would actually IMPROVE the team. Arenas (C) - The Warriors would be no better than a 48 win team and potentially worse with GA at point over BD. Plus he plays the same position as Ellis and you have yourself a team that has tied up it's capspace for status quo. You don't committ 100 million to 1 player for status quo.

Average: B .. Well worth the shot.

Mid-Season Grade: Brand (A) - Despite his injury and his effect on the 76ers I still think he would have made this team a playoff team. He's Randolph's defense and Brandan Wright's offense mixed into one with veteran status... Don Nelson would cream in his pants if he got Brand. Arenas (F) - The only reason my original grade was so high was because of my man-love for GA and you can ignore the fact that I actually thought he'd be healed. It's a blessing Polin paid GA or else we'd be stuck with an 100 million dollar blogger.

Average: C - Well worth the shot at Brand after BD spurned the Dubs. Just be happy GA got paid in DC folks.

3) Signing Corey Maggette 5yrs/50 million

Corey is a good player and a I'm glad he'll be abusing opposing teams instead of abusing us. Two things I love about Maggs is: (1) He makes FTs (2) He will not be denied to the rim. This is what the Warriors were lacking last year... someone who wouldn't settle for jumpshots and is confident in their FT shooting. Two things I hate about Maggs: (1) He is not a playmaker (2) He will not be denied to the rim. What this means is Maggette is BALL HOG CITY!! I just hope that was all due to the Clippers being depleted and him being in a contract year, but Maggs is a black hole. He can kill an entire offense for stretches since he rarely gives up the rock. If this Warrior team is to succeed they will need to share the rock.

While he has more positives than negatives.. paying Maggs 10 million a year is A LOT when the most he was looking at was mid-level exceptions.

GRADE: C ... Sign Maggs for 5 years/40-42 million and this becomes a B instead.

Mid-Season Grade: D

Pretty much can copy and paste what I said in the off-season report card. Maggs has been what I thought he would be coming in a steady scorer who is BALL HOG CITY and does little else. Why does his grade get lowered? Mostly due to the continued stellar play of Bukie, the emergence of Bellinelli and Morrow, and the trade for Crawford. If the Warriors knew back than what they know now, you can bet they would have made a play for someone else or at least low balled Maggs.

3) Signing Ronny Turiaf 4/17 million

This was a solid signing by Mullin providing the Warriors our own Milsap/Power. again like Maggette this was a guy who would tear us up. Glad he's with us now. He can run, block shots, play some defense, and has a solid mid-range shot. 4 million a year for a servicable big man is market value. Only negative is what does this mean for Richard Hendrix?

GRADE: B... solid player and gives us a reliable back up behind Biedrins.

Mid-Season Grade: B

Everything you thought you'd be getting and than some. Only wish is he'd stop trying to block every shot, so he can actually position himself and grab rebounds. People wonder how someone who blocks so many shots can be a poor rebounder? It's because Turiaf tries to blocks anything and everything in Oracle.

4) Trading for Marcus Williams

I love this move a lot more than most. I liked Williams coming out of college and wanted the Warriors to draft him instead of POB. He got stuck behind Kidd and had a injury short his 2nd season in the league. However he is a pure point guard that can create for others, shoot 3s, steal the ball, and play little defense (sound familiar). Not bad for a future 1st rounder.

He'll be a back up PG to start, but I could see Nellie using Ellis and Williams together. Wouldn't be suprised if Williams eventually plays himself into the 6th man role.. leap frogging Buike as the 6th man and 1st guard off the bench.

GRADE: A... great potential at a need position for very little investment (lottery protected 1st rounders or two 2nd rounders).

Mid-Season Grade: INC

Honestly, I loved the trade and still think Williams has potential. He couldn't even get in during Triple OT after Maggs was fouled out and he was the only available guard. I was at the game and I would have bet money that Nelson would put Williams in b/c he was the only guard left but he put in Kurz!! That just goes to show how deep in the doghouse is Marcus Williams when Don Nelson elects to play a big over a small in crunch time.

5) Matching Azubukie 3yrs/9 million

Another good move for Mully. Buike will develop into a solid starter/6th man who plays within himself, can take it to the rack, shoot 3s, and play defense. Matching Buike also prevents him from making a division foe better (instant upgrade form their bench and potential starter there) and allows us more flexibility in the future as a potential trading chip or insurance at the SG/SF when Jackson's contract runs out and if Bellinelli never pans out. Maybe we're biased, but we all know Bukie will become a good NBA and getting a YOUNG rotation player for 3 million a year is a great move.

GRADE: A ... could be better than Maggette

Mid-Season Grade: A.

Like I said dude will be better than Maggette and costs about 7 million less! A great Mullin find and a super-duper contract.

6) Re-signing Monta Ellis 6yrs/66 million

What more is there to say? Monta is our future, he is our franchise and will be a real offensive threat unlike J-Rich because he has better handles and can jump off 1 foot. Monta Ellis can consistently get himself to the rim and  has great finishing ability, couple that with his mid-range game and you have yourself an elite offensive player. His defense just needs to improve and I believe Monta has the work ethic to become a better defender. At the end of last season he also showed better playmaking ability and actually feed Biedrins the ball more in Pick and Roll situations over BD. I would much rather have Ellis for the next 6yrs for 66 million over Gilbert Arenas. People may say we overpaid... but Parker signed for the same deal and Ellis right now is just as good as TP, IMO.

GRADE: A ... Ability to get to the rim, finish, and mid-range game make him a lock to continue becoming an ELITE offensive scorer.

Mid-Season Grade: "F" YOU!!!

He's the sole reason for the Warriors suckieness (I'll detail it in another post) and all because he was riding on a freakin moped. I don't think people truly realize the impact Monta makes and I expect the Warriors to play consistently above average basketball once Monta comes back.

7) Signing Anthony Morrow

Worth a gamble after what he did in summer league.

GRADE: C... just because his chances to make the final roster are slim.

Mid-Season Grade: A

Another Mully gem. He has a good stroke and fights hard for rebounds on both ends of the floor. Needs to work on his offensive game a bit and defense but for a minimum deal you can't find better value.

8) Re-signing Biedrins 6yrs/63 million

Another young player locked up for market value. After years of suffering with Dampier and Foyle dropping passes... watching Andris play has been a joy to watch. He has soft hands, great feet, and a knack for scoring underneath. On the defensive side he is a very good rebounder and changes shots... if only the refs gave him some respect instead of tagging him with BS fouls. He's still very young at 22 and we haven't even see him come close to realizing his potential until Nelson leaves or commits to playing him for 30 minutes and running a few plays for him. Before we got Harrington and Jackson.. Biedrins was developing a solid low post game. He's one of best young bigs and he already has 4 years of NBA experience and is a proven double double guy in limited minutes.

GRADE: A .... he's getting paid less than Bogut. 'Nuff said.

Mid-Season Grade: A... 14 pts/12rebs/1.6blk/56% FG in all 41 games. Andrew Bogut... 12 pts/10rebs/1blk/58% FG has missed 9 games and counting. So the Dubs win on the value scale.  His FG% has dropped but he has been getting more looks so that is expected. He's been the most consistent Dub and glad to have him around for the next 6 years.

Mid-Season Grade of Off-Season moves: B... The signings of everyone but Maggette have proved to be great values and solid management decisions. They dropped from a B+ to a B because of the wasted money of Maggette and the value of his contract, for being crazy enough to offer GA max money, Nelson and Williams hating each other, and a stupid moped incident.

So what can we gain from looking back? For the most part the Warriors did the right things during the off-season as far as moves go. The problems with the losing have stemmed from a Warriors injury and moves/decisions that have occured since than sending our once proud and up-coming franchise to lottery bound. With the off-season moves the Warriors have set themselves up with a nice young core of rotation players but huge deals to Maggs, SJax, and possibly Crawford are going to lead to status quo for the foreseeable future. If this teams is going to go anywehere it will have to be through the improvements of the young core and that's what makes this season so frustrating as Don Nelson isn't the right coach IMO to raise young, confident NBA players.

Fellow GSOMers it's time that we band together and make sure our voices are heard and at least ATTEMPT to send a message to Cohan that we want Chris Mullin to stick around and guide the Warriors.

We've seen in a little less than half the season what the Rowell and Nelson Team can do.... completely destroy a team that had played with passion, heart, and competed every night to snapping a 12 year playoff streak and becoming the best team ever to miss the playoffs.

At first, I supported Nelson but his coaching this season has been highly questionable and you can tell the players are sick and tired of it. They don't play with the same energy and passion that they played with last year. He's stubbornly stuck to a small ball lineup when we now have 4 quality NBA big men to man the 4 and 5 spots that can rebound and run the floor. He's alienating and risking future building blocks in Wright and Randolph and the leader of the team in Stephen Jackson. This is a team in turmoil and we all know who to blame.... Nelson and Rowell.

If you need any more reason to blame Nelson check out the Ric Bucher article...

Nelson Messing Up AGAIN!

It's time to get them out of here.... but with the money Cohan just dished out it... it looks like the best we can do is ensure that Chris Mullin stays.

Why Chris Mullin? He's done a hell of a job assembling a great young team:

- Look at the talent he has drafted (all GMs have lottery busts):

DRAFTED: Andris Biedrins, Monta Ellis, Anthony Randolph, Brandon Wright, Marco Bellinelli,

- He's been able to make great trades:

TRADED for: Baron Davis, Stephen Jackson, Al Harrington, Jamal Crawford, Marcus Williams

TRADED away: Speedy Claxton, Dale Davis, Mike Dunleavy, Troy Murphy, Al Harrington, and Lottery Protected 1st Rounder

- He has an eye for talent:

Waiver Wire Fodder: Kelenna Azubuike, CJ Watson, Anthony Morrow

This team should not be 8-22 even without Monta Ellis. This team should not be getting blown out each night, playing listless defense, and getting out rebounded. The GM of the team has assembled YOUNG TALENT that fits together PERFECTLY...

PG: Monta Ellis

SG: Jamal Crawford

SF: Anthony Randolph

PF: Brandon Wright

C: Andris Biedrins

BENCH

Turiaf

Azubukie

Bellinelli

Morrow

CJ Watson

But we currently have a coach who has been unable to motivate and put these young players in a position to succeed and build up their confidence. In fact he wants to TRADE our most talented young player!!

Chris Mullin has done his job and done it well. We need to keep him. He assembled the team that Don Nelson led to the playoffs. He has assembled a young team that just needs the right coach succeed.  So let's let ownership know we want Chris Mullin around. So how do we do it? We need to mobilize and voice our opinions. Here's what we need to do GSOMers.

1) E-mail Public Relations (pr@gs-warriors.com) - Tell Public Relations that we want to keep Chris Mullin as the leader of the Franchise.

2) Season Ticket Holders Express your discontent (accountservices@gs-warriors.com) - Season ticket holders need to make it loud and clear right now that YOU WILL NOT RENEW your season tickets if they fail to keep Chris Mullin. Send an e-mail and whenever they call to ask to you to renew decline and tell them you are waiting to see if they keep Chris Mullin as VP.

3) GRASSROOTS movement at the Arena - At every Warrior Game we need to bring signs that show support for Mullin. We need to start "Keep Chris Mullin" Chants. If we can start this chant at the arena at every game eventually ownership will HAVE to keep Mullin.

So Dubs fans this is the only way we can prevent going back into another decade plus of losing due to a Nelson Meltdown. We need to keep the idividual who has assembled this young talented team that we all see. So let's keep Chris Mullin... we've already seen what Don Nelson has done in his last tour of the Bay.

"KEEP CHRIS MULLIN!"

"KEEP CHRIS MULLIN!"

"KEEP CHRIS MULLIN!"

This off-season is probably the most important off-season for Chris Mullin and our Dubs. The last time Mullin had an off-season like this he signed Foyle and Fisher to horrible deals to build around franchise cornerstones: Jason Richardson, Troy Murphy, and Mike Dunleavy. We all know how that turned out.... outside of Jason Richardson all of those moves have turned out to be big, fat, F.

So let's look at the moves Mullin has made this off-season:

1) Not re-signing Baron Davis

I don't know about you, but during our playoff push last year I began to wish Nelson didn't give BD so much leeway. With each 3 pointer he chucked, instead of taking it to the rack and his matador defense trying to go for pokes... I began to hate him. The one sequence that sticks in my head is against the Nuggets in a do or die game for the final playoff spot... sometime in the late 3rd/early 4th the Warriors down by 4 points or so had 3 defensive stops in a row... sadly the defense went for nothing as BD launched 3 pointers instead of working for a better shot. After that time I knew that we got the best out of BD the year before... the unstoppable bowling ball during the last month of the season and in the playoffs.

Next season our win total maybe lower, but that extra year of experience without BD will do wonders for Ellis, Biedrins, and the rest of the young guys as they learn to win in the NBA and gain experience a steh go-to guys... this could lead to more wins in the future.

GRADE: B .. Next season we will suffer, but it will pay off in the future.

2) Offering Brand and GA Max contracts

These were genius moves by Mullin. Had he landed either player the Warriors would've been a lock for playoffs IMO.. with that said and as much as it hurts to say this as Gilbert Arenas is my favorite player... Brand would've been a much better fit for the Warriors. I'd much rather pay 100 million for a stud big man who can do it all than perimeter oriented scorer (as clutch as GA is).

GRADE: Brand (A) - Well worth the shot and would actually IMPROVE the team. Arenas (C) - The Warriors would be no better than a 48 win team and potentially worse with GA at point over BD. Plus he plays the same position as Ellis and you have yourself a team that has tied up it's capspace for status quo. You don't committ 100 million to 1 player for status quo.

Average: B .. Well worth the shot.

3) Signing Corey Maggette 5yrs/50 million

Corey is a good player and a I'm glad he'll be abusing opposing teams instead of abusing us. Two things I love about Maggs is: (1) He makes FTs (2) He will not be denied to the rim. This is what the Warriors were lacking last year... someone who wouldn't settle for jumpshots and is confident in their FT shooting. Two things I hate about Maggs: (1) He is not a playmaker (2) He will not be denied to the rim. What this means is Maggette is BALL HOG CITY!! I just hope that was all due to the Clippers being depleted and him being in a contract year, but Maggs is a black hole. He can kill an entire offense for stretches since he rarely gives up the rock. If this Warrior team is to succeed they will need to share the rock.

While he has more positives than negatives.. paying Maggs 10 million a year is A LOT when the most he was looking at was mid-level exceptions.

GRADE: C ... Sign Maggs for 5 years/40-42 million and this becomes a B instead.

3) Signing Ronny Turiaf 4/17 million

This was a solid signing by Mullin providing the Warriors our own Milsap/Power. again like Maggette this was a guy who would tear us up. Glad he's with us now. He can run, block shots, play some defense, and has a solid mid-range shot. 4 million a year for a servicable big man is market value. Only negative is what does this mean for Richard Hendrix?

GRADE: B... solid player and gives us a reliable back up behind Biedrins.

4) Trading for Marcus Williams

I love this move a lot more than most. I liked Williams coming out of college and wanted the Warriors to draft him instead of POB. He got stuck behind Kidd and had a injury short his 2nd season in the league. However he is a pure point guard that can create for others, shoot 3s, steal the ball, and play little defense (sound familiar). Not bad for a future 1st rounder.

He'll be a back up PG to start, but I could see Nellie using Ellis and Williams together. Wouldn't be suprised if Williams eventually plays himself into the 6th man role.. leap frogging Buike as the 6th man and 1st guard off the bench.

GRADE: A... great potential at a need position for very little investment (lottery protected 1st rounders or two 2nd rounders).

5) Matching Azubukie 3yrs/9 million

Another good move for Mully. Buike will develop into a solid starter/6th man who plays within himself, can take it to the rack, shoot 3s, and play defense. Matching Buike also prevents him from making a division foe better (instant upgrade form their bench and potential starter there) and allows us more flexibility in the future as a potential trading chip or insurance at the SG/SF when Jackson's contract runs out and if Bellinelli never pans out. Maybe we're biased, but we all know Bukie will become a good NBA and getting a YOUNG rotation player for 3 million a year is a great move.

GRADE: A ... could be better than Maggette

6) Re-signing Monta Ellis 6yrs/66 million

What more is there to say? Monta is our future, he is our franchise and will be a real offensive threat unlike J-Rich because he has better handles and can jump off 1 foot. Monta Ellis can consistently get himself to the rim and  has great finishing ability, couple that with his mid-range game and you have yourself an elite offensive player. His defense just needs to improve and I believe Monta has the work ethic to become a better defender. At the end of last season he also showed better playmaking ability and actually feed Biedrins the ball more in Pick and Roll situations over BD. I would much rather have Ellis for the next 6yrs for 66 million over Gilbert Arenas. People may say we overpaid... but Parker signed for the same deal and Ellis right now is just as good as TP, IMO.

GRADE: A ... Ability to get to the rim, finish, and mid-range game make him a lock to continue becoming an ELITE offensive scorer.

7) Signing Anthony Morrow

Worth a gamble after what he did in summer league.

GRADE: C... just because his chances to make the final roster are slim.

8) Re-signing Biedrins 6yrs/63 million

Another young player locked up for market value. After years of suffering with Dampier and Foyle dropping passes... watching Andris play has been a joy to watch. He has soft hands, great feet, and a knack for scoring underneath. On the defensive side he is a very good rebounder and changes shots... if only the refs gave him some respect instead of tagging him with BS fouls. He's still very young at 22 and we haven't even see him come close to realizing his potential until Nelson leaves or commits to playing him for 30 minutes and running a few plays for him. Before we got Harrington and Jackson.. Biedrins was developing a solid low post game. He's one of best young bigs and he already has 4 years of NBA experience and is a proven double double guy in limited minutes.

GRADE: A .... he's getting paid less than Bogut. 'Nuff said.

Overall Grade for Mullin thus far: B+

For some this off-season could be seen as a disaster, but outside of overpaying Maggette (which is the main knock on the deal $$$$, not Maggette himself) Mullin did a great job this off-season, IMO. Sure we lost BD... but we were losing WITH him. You play to win Championships and Mullin has set the team up this season to be balanced, flexible, and and competitive even with so many young players. He has certainly learned from his mistakes in the past and us Warrior fans will be looking back at this off-season a sthe beginning of a new era... the Dubs as Contenders.

Hello everyone- This is my 1st post here, but definitely not my last. Been a Warrior Fan my whole life (22 years) back to the days of Run TMC  and sadly able to rattle names such as Carlos Rogers, Clifford Rozier, Victor Alexander, Vonteego Cummings, Bimbo Coles, and my personal favorite.... BILL CURLEY!!! So enough with the introduction onto my "article"
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Coming into the season the Warriors depth was one of their strengths, but nearly 30 games into the season it is clear we lack any consistent production to ease the workload on BD and Cap'n Jack. Fear not, there are people out there sitting at home who could actually help our beloved Warriors!

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