This is a post to track and get the attention of the guys who signed up for the GSOM Auction League/Flawless Fantasy Basketball League. The other thread got dropped off the front page and this is only way I can contact those who signed up.

Here's the original thread: GSOM Fantasy Auction League Sign Up

Invites were sent out on Friday. To those who got invites you have until next Friday, Oct 16, to join the league or else you will risk losing your spot in the league to the replacement players:

Replacements:

- GoldenStateGurrero

- dubzero23

- bizz192

Invites who need to join:

- ejdacanay

- MJW in -The City-

- GarciaWarriors8

- Mr. Monday Night

- mekanikal

- RayAlmeda

- pre10d

- bojangles408

Invites Joined:

- mcwalter44

-  JRich4MVP

- b.radley

So check the e-mail you guys provided and join or else I will find a replacement for you. If any new players are interested in joining just signup below with the following info.

e-mail:

age:

Fantasy experience:

Fantasy Basketball Leagues This Year (not including this one):

Hey guys lots of other fantasy basketball leagues out there, but I'm hoping to offer something different from you standard fare. This league will be for hardcore fantasy basketball fans. The plan is for this year to be a 20 team auction so people get used to it and hopefully transition into a contract league next year (rules are in process). By then people should have some idea regarding the auction draft and the unique scoring system in order to create a great foundation for the contract league. I would also have an idea of the capabilities of ESPN Auction leagues so that we know what we can and cant do regarding the contract league. So here's the info regarding the league this year. Nothing is set in stone... just trying to see how many GSOM players are interested.

- 20 Owners (Consisting of my regular non-FBG fantasy crew (all active owners) and about 10-12 GSOMers)
- Free
- ESPN.com Fantasy Basketball will be the host (only site offering live auction).
- 20 week regular season, 3 week playoffs - 8 teams (Championship held 1 week earlier than end of NBA season to limit the impact of NBA playoff teams resting players)
- 15 man rosters, 8 active - PG, SG, SF, PF, C, 3xUTL (mimics 8 man rotation), 7 bench (large roster but testing for contract league purpose).
- Head 2 Head Points System a la Fantasy Football... total points for week wins.

Tentative Scoring System:

PTS = 1
REB = 1.5
AST = 1.5
STLS = 2
BLKS = 2
TO = -1.5
FGA = -1
FGM= 1
FTA= -1
FTM = 1

So say LBJ scores 20 pts (7-14 FG) (5-6 FT), 8 ast, 8 rebs, 1 stl, 1 blk, 4 TOs he would produce a score of 34 total points [(20) + (-7) + (-1) + (12) + (12) + (2) + (2) + (-6)]. This is a great system as it accounts for volume scoring, poor percentages, and TOs. I'm interested in hearing league input regarding the scoring system (ESPN only go to the tenth or 0.1).

I can guarantee that this league will be full of active owners and as you can see this is part of a larger vision to truly test our fantasy basketball skills by creating a 20 team contract league next season. SO ACTIVE AND DEDICATED OWNERS ONLY! I'll create a sign up list based on first come first serve. Not sure exactly how many GSOMers I can take as I'm giving priority to my real life friends, but I think I should have about 10-12 slots give or take a few.

When you sign up please list the day and time (specify time zone, I am i pacific) that would be best for you to auction. I'm shooting for Tuesday the Monday or Tuesday night or the 19th or 26th at 8 PM pacific.

Please reply by filling out this info:

E-mail:

Age:

Draft Time/Preference:

Fantasy Experience:

Peace.

FLAxWLESS

Sign Up List

1. Jrich4mvp

2. ejdacanay

Grading Warriors Off-Season:  The 2009 Edition

via assets.sbnation.com

Last off-season I took a look at the moves the Warriors made and graded Mullin on each individual transaction and gave him an overall grade for the season. Little did we know that that would be the last off-season that Mullin would preside over in Oakland as he was replaced by Larry Riley. Not only has the decision marker changed but the circumstances the Warriors find themselves under this off-season could not be any different. Last year the Warriors were under the cap and had numerous players up for extensions. This off-season the Warriors are nearing the luxury tax with $60 million committed to 13 players. Unlike last season where the circumstances gave Mullin more flexibility and ability to impact the roster, Riley finds himself trying to improve the team with one arm tied behind his back. So with the proper perspective let's get on the way of reviewing the off-season.

Continue reading this post »

An In-Depth Study: Don Nelson Doesn't Play Rookies.....

Rookies!?!

The Warriors have undergone a tremendous amount of transformation the past couple of years. We went from an up and coming playoff team only to return back to the familiar lottery faster than Monta Ellis can go on a moped. Gone is the golden buzz-cut of Mully, whom Nellie helped fight alcoholism as a player. In his place is the salt and pepper doo of Larry Riley, Nellie's drinking buddy. The face of the franchise is no longer the bearded smile of Baron Davis and the scowling face of Cap'n Jack but the baby faced trio of Monta Ellis, Anthony Randolph, and Stephen Curry.

That youth and potential has played a large part in turning the fans against the one man who remains at the center of all the success and madness..... Don Nelson. Nellie was a godsend from Maui when he led the Warriors to the playoffs, but due to a losing record and questionable rotations most Warrior fans are praying that Nellie takes the 5 hour trip to Maui on a one-way ticket.

Last season, many Warrior fans questioned why Wright, Randolph, Belinelli, and Morrow sat on the bench while Jackson, Maggette, and Crawford led the Warriors into the lottery. Detractors proposed that if you are going to lose you might as well lose with young players. This mentality only became stronger once Randolph and Morrow flourished with extended minutes late in the season. Detractors repeat that Nelson's distaste for young players stunted their growth because he was reluctant to give them game time. As the losses mounted and the 1st and 2nd year players continued to ride the pine, Warrior fans began to wish for the firing of Don Nelson. Suddenly, the man who led the team to the playoffs for the first time in 12 years was now the last coach many fans would want guiding the youngest team in the NBA.

Continue reading this post »

The Amare Trade and EWA

You can't say that Larry Riley isn't trying to improve the team given the trade talks that had emerged at the draft. Trading for Amare is a bold move considering the superstar talent Amare possesses, but as we know teams don't trade superstar talent away just because they are unhappy. So what will Amare do for the Warriors? How does the rumored trade affect the Warriors on the basketball court? Is it worth it?  In this post we'll look at the impact of the trade on the team's EWA and try to determine if it's worth it. **Jae just beat me by a day in getting this out (a great post by the way) but another viewpoint doesn't hurt**

Refresher on EWA

In case you missed it here is the link my initial post regarding EWA and applying to the Warriors. If you haven't read it before than take the time to do so now, in order to help gain a better understanding of this post.

EWA and the Warriors

A quick refresher on the findings of the report that is pertinent to discussing the trade.

1)      Rule of 45/8 - Most playoff teams had total of 45 EWA and Top 5 Avg of 8 EWA/player

2)      With the Warriors lineup as is they are projected to break the 45/8 barrier meaning they would be in the playoff chase.

Finding #2 is why this trade proposal causes great discomfort amongst Warrior fans. With all the injuries last year we haven't seen what this young team is capable of doing. As Dub fans we have learned to live and actually come to love the concept of potential and a better future although we have seen that could take a decade to realize.

The Chart of Information

Most of the info I will be referring to is on this chart. So open the link and keep it handy.

Amare EWA Chart

Biedrins vs Amare

I love Biedrins as a player but anyway you look at it there should be no question WHEN healthy and in a run and gun system just who is a better player.

Looking at their estimated EWAs as centers (Amare's 08-09 EWA is higher than what is listed on ESPN because it is calculated as a PF) we see the huge disparity in EWA over the past 3 years since Amare has returned from microfracture surgery averaging 16.21 EWA as a center compared to Biedrins who has averaged 7.76 EWA. That's more than double the value that Andris brings to a team. If you want to look at PER ratings, Amare's worst season since returning from injury (last year) is still better than Andris' best season in his 5 year career (last year).

People like to make a big deal about the loss in rebounding and shot blocking but Amare averages 9 rebounds and 1.5 blks for his career (high 2.1/ blks and 9.6 rebounds) compared to Andris who averaged 8.2 rebounds and 1.2 blks (high 1.7/blks and 11.2 rebounds). Andris averages are weighted down by his early career numbers and I'll concede Andris is a better defender than Amare but the difference in defense is smaller than the wide gap on the offensive end. Amare scores more points, has a great FT% for a big man, and has the ability to score away from the key.

Some may look at the 08-09 numbers and point to it as evidence that Amare is slipping as their EWAs and PER were so close, but what it shows to me is that Amare's floor is Biedrins ceiling. At this point in their careers I don't think either man will improve significantly. Pretty much what we see now is what we'll get: Amare can be a Top 5 player in the NBA while Biedrins can be a Top 5 center. Which one would you rather have?

The Trade and Warrior's EWA

I don't think anyone would turn down an Amare for Biedrins deal straight up, but the reality is that in order to acquire a talent like Amare we have to give up talent. From the various media reports we know the working parts of the deal is Amare for Biedrins, Belinelli, Wright, and Bukie, Curry, or both.

The Upper Left box shows the Warriors projected EWA. I took out Watson's numbers and plugged in Curry/Law using Law's dreadful 10.68 PER from last year. The numbers used to project Amare's EWA are realistic and attainable, IMO. I used 33 mpg (career 34 mpg) which totals just above 2700 (he hasn't played more than 2700 since he returned for surgery) and used his average PER from the past 3 season. Without Amare the Dubs would still be a 45/8 team, but any trade acquiring Amare would increase the Warriors' Top 5 average to around 10 EWA per Top 5 player which would put the Warriors behind only the Lakers and Cavaliers. If you read the last post the Warriors weakness shown by EWA was not overall team talent but the lack of a superstar player/talent in the starting 5. Adding Amare even if it involved Biedrins, Belinelli, Wright, Bukie, AND Curry would result in a fearsome starting 5 that is a lock for playoffs and IMO a legitimate threat to the Western Conference Finals, but will our bench be good enough?

Most NBA coaches prefer an 8 man rotation and of all those possible combinations my ideal trade for Amare would be what ESPN reported. Amare for Biedrins, Belinelli, and Wright would leave a bench of Maggette, Morrow, Turiaf, and Curry. That is a solid bench rotation that gives you a little bit of everything: instant offense, a sharpshooter, a solid big, and a young combo guard.

My second option and take it or leave it trade would be Biedrins, Belinelli, Wright, and Bukie for Amare. This would weaken the bench as either Morrow or Maggette would be forced into the starting 5, but it would still be decent with Morrow/Maggette to back up the 2/3, Turiaf to back up the PF/C, and Curry/Law to take time at the 1 and 2 spots. Given how high Nelson is on Curry this would still produce a legitimate 8 man NBA rotation. Bukie is a solid NBA player but we have someone similar (albeit more expensive) in Maggette.

If we added to the trade Curry but left out Bukie we'd have decent depth as a team but you'd rely on Law/Watson as your primary back ups at PG and miss out on the closest thing to Steve Nash as Nelson says. Adding Bukie and Curry is just asking for trouble as we'd have to rely on Law and camp fodder to fill that 8th spot in the rotation after Morrow/Maggs and Turiaf.

So should we do the trade?

If it costs nothing more than Biedrins, Bukie, Wright, and Belinelli I would do trade for Amare if we can reach a long term agreement. Aside from the long term agreement and parting possibly with Curry (not gonna happen) every other complaint about the Amare trade does not overshadow his major positive - a legitimate Top 5 NBA player.

1) That's too many players to trade for one guy - If basketball were 10 vs 10 then you guys may have a valid complaint but only 5 people can play at a time. Also most NBA coaches and players prefer the stability afforded by an 8 man NBA rotation. The Warriors have a squad full of NBA rotation players (only team with + EWA for every player) but even adding Bukie we are only losing 1 projected rotation player (Bukie) as Amare and Andris cancel and Belinelli and Wright are not Nelson favorites.

2) Wright, Belinelli, Bukie, and Biedrins have potential - The dreaded word of potential. These guys do have potential but in my estimation none have the Top 5 player in the NBA potential that Amare possesses and has already proven he can be. Second, you can only realize your potential with game time and Wright and Belinelli would have gotten none barring injuries. Morrow and Randolph have overtaken both in the rotation and the plans of the franchise and justifiably so. 

3) 2008-09 shows Amare is declining - I don't think that true at all. I think the biggest reason was the dysfunction in Phoenix. Once D'Antoni was fired the Suns lost their identity and tried to become a defensive team and work in some half court offense to cater to Shaq. What's funny is that the Suns two best players, Nash and Amare, are adverse to defense and the half court. Put Amare in a run and gun offense and you'll see the return of a beast.

4) He is a superstar entering his prime but he is injury prone and has a bad attitude - Does this sound familiar? It's so similar it's scary. Last time we traded for a young superstar that was injury prone and had a bad attitude it worked out quite well with BD. Amare flourished under D'Antoni and he should do the same under Nellie who coaches the style that suits Amare the best and is able to manage and connect to strong personalities like BD and Jackson.  

Conclusion

The rumored trade for Amare is one about quality over quantity. Yes, we are giving up a lot of players but as long as we don't give up Curry and can reach a long term agreement, its well worth it IMO.

Biedrins is a very good center but does not have the potential of Amare, Belinelli and Wright are expendable as non-rotation players (you can argue withe Nelson if you want), and Bukie is undrafted FA who turned into a solid NBA player. You don't pass up a Top 5 NBA player who would single-handedly address ours issue regarding a post presence and superstar player because of Wright, Belinelii, and Bukie.

Yes there are risks, like is he Kenyon Martin 2.0 (becomes a role player once they don't have a playmaking PG), but considering the pieces we are giving up and what would be left on the team it's worth it for a chance at a dominating big who was born to play in Nellie's system. The last time we had such a player we traded him for potential - Tom Gugliotta and three 1st rounders. Hmmm.... so similar to the proposed Biedrins, Wright (1st rounder), Belinelli (1st rounder), and Bukie trade that some are against. I guess some Warrior Fans never learn, hopefully Nelson has.

To put it simply Amare is the difference between fighting for the 7th or 8th seed or fighting for home court advantage in the 1st round. Considering the asking price for Bosh is Biedrins/Ellis + Randolph, I'd take Biedrins + scrubs for Amare in a heart beat.

Luckily for us, Riley and Nelson are in the driver's seat in trading with Phoenix. We can play hardball knowing that other teams have to match our offer (unlikely) and that we don't need Amare as much as Kerr wants to get rid of him. The longer this drags the cheaper Amare's price will become and we'll see exactly whether the Suns think they can do better with 16 million in cap space when Amare opts out compared to Biedrins, Wright, Belinelli, and Bukie.

EWA and the Warriors!

Any playoff hopes the Warriors had during the 08-09 season were destroyed the moment the team learned Monta Ellis injured his ankle in Mopedgate. The franchise crushing injury was just the first of many injuries that plagued the Warriors during the 08-09 season as the team rarely had their projected starting five of Monta, Jackson, Magette, Wright, and Biedrins on the floor at the same time and found themselves struggling to field enough players to play a game.

Many Warrior fans have pointed to injuries as the cause of the Warriors dismal record, but just how good could the Warriors have been last year with a healthy Monta Ellis? Would we be a playoff team? A championship caliber team? What can we expect from the Warriors for next season? What steps should the team make to become a playoff team? A championship caliber team? Should we trade for Chris Bosh? Amare? Boozer? Would Andre Miller push the Warriors like Billups did in Denver? These are all questions that Warriors fans find themselves asking as we watch the 2nd season unfold.

Luckily for us we are living in an age where every statistic you can think of is being created and tracked and this season John Hollinger introduced to us the Estimated Win Added (EWA) statistic. The statistic intrigued me and like any basketball fan I looked at how each of the players on my favorite team did. Then, I wanted to see how the Warriors stacked up with the Lakers and how it looked compared to the Kings. From there I ended up compiling the EWA of every player who qualified (need to play at least 500 minutes) on each NBA team. Compiling the data took some time but the information I have obtained from the data has been eye opening. It has been so informative it will help answer almost every question that Warrior fans have been asking themselves since this terrible season ended. It's a long read but hopefully you all appreciate the work and make this the most rec'd fan post ever.

Continue reading this post »

The season has ended, so now it's time to review the moves the Warriors made prior to this season and give them a final grade. It was a hard season Warrior fans, so hopefully we can take some of the few positives as we head into the '09 Off-Season.

Below is the link to the mid-season review for those who need a refreshed of the original grades and what was said at the mid-term.

Mid-Season Review of Off-Season Moves

Here she blows...

Continue reading this post »

Hollinger Most Similar….

Just thought this would be a fun quick read. I was looking at Warrior stats at ESPN, checking out PERs and what not and started reading the Hollinger player profiles and thought it would be a fun quick read to see who each player is most similar like at the age. I apologize if this has been done before.

Starting 5

Monta Ellis = Tony Parker

Jamal Crawford = Mitch Richmond

Stephen Jackson = Steve Smith

Anthony Randolph = N/A

Andris Biedrins = Eddy Curry

6th man

Corey Maggette = Paul Pierce

Bench

Kelenna Azubuike = Dion Glover

Ronny Turiaf = Theo Ratliff

Marcus Williams = Kenyon Dooling

CJ Watson = N/A

Marco Belinelli = N/A

Jamareo Davidson = N/A

Rob Kurz = N/A

Anthony Morrow = N/A
Brandan Wright = N/A

As Warrior fans we were heart broken and angry ever since we learned of Monta's injury that would ultimately cost him half the NBA season. We’ve seen the team go from 48 wins to being on pace for something in the 20s.

So how big of a role does Monta play in all of this? Will he truly make an impact? If he does what should we expect from the Warriors franchise player? Those are the questions many of us have so I’ll attempt to answer them.

First question is statistically how is this team doing compared to last seasons team?

STAT: current (last season)

 

Scoring margin: -4.9 (+2.2)

PPG: 107.4 (111.0)

Fastbreak: 17.1 (22.5)

Points in Paint: 43.9 (47.6)

eFG%: 49.1% (51.1%)

3 PT (m/a): 6.5/18.2 (9.3/26.6)

FT (m/a): 22.8/29.8 (18.8/24.9)

AST: 20.6 (22.4)

BLK: 6.5 (4.7)

STL: 8.0 (9.1)

TO: 14.6 (13.0)

REBD: 29.9 (30.4)

REBO: 12.5 (12.7)

Possession/Game: 102.3 (102.4)

Offensive Efficiency: 1.049 (1.084)

Defensive Efficiency: 1.097 (1.066)

 

So what’s do we make of all those stats?

The 08-09 Warriors compared to the 07-08 team is performing fairly similar to the BD and Monta led squad. The 08-09 edition plays at the same pace, rebounds about the same, shoots less 3 pointers, blocks more shots, and drives it to the lane more than last season’s 48 win squad. Compared to last year it has not put as many points as past teams in the paint, fast break, or total, has fewer assists, steals, and more TOs. Also the efficiency numbers are down too. However, aside from the scoring drop all the other stats are fairly close to last seasons and many people worried about assists dropping because of losing BD but we are averaging only 2 less assist per game, but that has improved since Crawford came aboard and Nelson instituted the motion offense. So assists is not a big issue.

Bottom line is the Warriors this season stack up fairly well statistically to the 48 win team that had BD AND MONTA. It can be pretty safe to assume that Crawford/Maggette/Bench Mob has filled in reasonably well for BD/Harrington/Ellis as the main rotation players.  So we can get a fairly good reading of how Monta Ellis will impact the Warriors upon his return to his former self.

1) Fast break points

Before I looked up any numbers just from my observation one of the ingredients the Warriors are missing this year is fast break points. The lack of easy points in transition really kills the Warriors. How many times have we seen botched fast breaks? I couldn’t tell you how many times we have 2 on 1 or 3 on 2s that result in a horrible shot or a TO.

People may attribute that to the fact that we don’t have BD to run the floor but I think the bigger factor is we don’t have the 1 man fast break to turn an outlet pass into a quick and easy 2. Monta makes the fast break easy to run…. just get him the damn ball (I think we all agree even Maggette can do that if he’s willing).

Here are the numbers from 82games.com and teamrankings.com

Team PPG:

Last season: 111.0

This season: 107.4

 

http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stats/?cat=team&pan=2052

 

Fastbreak points scored:

Last season: 22.5 (1st)

This season: 17.1 (3rd)

 

Fastbreak points allowed:

Last season: 13.9 (27th)

This season: 15.7 (30th)

 

82games.com

 

Shot Clock 0-10 seconds used:

Last season: 46.0 pts

This season: 41.7 pts

 

As you can see our overall points has dropped 3.6 ppg, our fast break points has dropped from 22.5 to 17.1 a whopping 5.3 pts per game less, and from 82games.com you can also see our points scored during the 1st 10 seconds of the shot clock has dropped 4.3 pts per game. Right now our point differential is -4.9 pts per game. So it seems that quick and easy fast break points are lacking.

So how does Monta fit in all of this? I couldn’t find fastbreak points per player so I used 82games 0-10 seconds as a barometer:

Monta Ellis - 58.9 eFG% (#3), 9.3 pts/game (#1)

 

Those were his numbers last year for 0-10 seconds and where he would rank if inserted into this years team. He would be #1 in 0-10 seconds points with 9.1/game and #3 in eFG% on those shots. Those are great but his true value shows when you look at them compared to the team now. While Crawford is #2 at 8.6 ppg his eFG% is only 49.6%!!! That’s nearly 10% less than Monta. Than you check out his FG% at #3 is nice but if you compare it to Wright and Biedrins, Monta nearly triples Wright (3.6 ppg) and almost doubles Biedrins (5.4 ppg) in output.

So we’re talking about inserting OUR FASTBREAK OFFENSE HERE! Monta scores in bulk and at such a high efficiency. So immediately expect the Warriors fast break numbers to increase and we’ll see less of those botched opportunities. Thank god.

2) FG%

Ellis connected on 53.1% of his FG while scoring 20 points per game. He’d rank behind Biedrins and Wright if you assumed he’d produce at the same clip and that is highly impressive given how many shots Monta Ellis gets. Anytime you add an efficient scorer to the team it should only help. Again, if we shoot more efficient we give up less rebounds and that should help our transition defense.

3) Rebounding

If Monta continues to rebound to last season’s average he’d rank #3 on our team behind Biedrins’ 12 and Maggs’ 6.1. Currently the team is averaging roughly the same amount of rebounds as last season so adding Monta will be a boost especially out of the PG/SG position. Getting 5 from there every night means less second chance points for the opponents and more fast break opportunities for the Dubs.    

4) Assists

Last season Monta averaged 3.9 ast/game with BD dominating the ball. Even with that paltry average Monta would rank #3 behind S-Jax and Crawford this season. I don’t think it’s a stretch to assume without BD that those numbers should increase. Again Monta should only help the Warriors out and like I mentioned earlier ball movement isn’t a big deal IMO as others suggest now that we have the motion offense.

5) Steals

Right now his 1.5 stl per game from last season would rank as #1 on the Warriors just barely edging out Jackson. Another bonus to the team as more TOs means more opportunities to get out in transition.

Conclusion

Looking at the statistics Monta would shore up the Warriors' biggest deficiency and biggest difference from last years success: scoring. He’d also help the other categories that have experienced a drop off from last year such as squad such as rebs, ast, stls, and more importantly FG%. I mean just look at where Monta would rank on our team if he produced to his season averages from last season:

FG% #3, PTS #1, REBS #3, AST, #3, STL #1

People often think of Monta as just a scorer because he is an ELITE offensive force but he also helps the Warriors in other categories as well. Now, this doesn’t mean the Warriors will march into the playoffs this season (I doubt with Monta they can win 30 out of the next 39 games – unless they improve rebounding and defense – not Monta’s forte) or that Monta is going to produce at the level he did last year immediately, but there is hope Warrior fans.

All signs point to Monta having a successful recovery and that should give hope to Warrior fans for a competitive team for the remainder of this season due to addition of Monta, the shift from chucking 3 pointers to driving it to the rim, and the improved bench play (one of the benefits from the injuries). Next season it wouldn’t be hard to expect the Warriors to battle for playoff contention with the current roster (as flawed as it may be) because the stats seem to show the difference between a 48 win team and a 26 win team is a little Monta Magic.