SB Nation User Blog: FLAxwless

GSOM Fantasy Auction League Invite Tracking

FLAxwless — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 05:46:27 -0000

This is a post to track and get the attention of the guys who signed up for the GSOM Auction League/Flawless Fantasy Basketball League. The other thread got dropped off the front page and this is only way I can contact those who signed up.

Here's the original thread: GSOM Fantasy Auction League Sign Up

Invites were sent out on Friday. To those who got invites you have until next Friday, Oct 16, to join the league or else you will risk losing your spot in the league to the replacement players:

Replacements:

- GoldenStateGurrero

- dubzero23

- bizz192

Invites who need to join:

- pre10d

Invites Joined:

So check the e-mail you guys provided and join or else I will find a replacement for you. If any new players are interested in joining just signup below with the following info.

e-mail:

age:

Fantasy experience:

Fantasy Basketball Leagues This Year (not including this one):

GSOM Fantasy Basketball Auction League

FLAxwless — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 23:17:53 -0000

Hey guys lots of other fantasy basketball leagues out there, but I'm hoping to offer something different from you standard fare. This league will be for hardcore fantasy basketball fans. The plan is for this year to be a 20 team auction so people get used to it and hopefully transition into a contract league next year (rules are in process). By then people should have some idea regarding the auction draft and the unique scoring system in order to create a great foundation for the contract league. I would also have an idea of the capabilities of ESPN Auction leagues so that we know what we can and cant do regarding the contract league. So here's the info regarding the league this year. Nothing is set in stone... just trying to see how many GSOM players are interested.

- 20 Owners (Consisting of my regular non-FBG fantasy crew (all active owners) and about 10-12 GSOMers)
- Free
- ESPN.com Fantasy Basketball will be the host (only site offering live auction).
- 20 week regular season, 3 week playoffs - 8 teams (Championship held 1 week earlier than end of NBA season to limit the impact of NBA playoff teams resting players)
- 15 man rosters, 8 active - PG, SG, SF, PF, C, 3xUTL (mimics 8 man rotation), 7 bench (large roster but testing for contract league purpose).
- Head 2 Head Points System a la Fantasy Football... total points for week wins.

Tentative Scoring System:

PTS = 1
REB = 1.5
AST = 1.5
STLS = 2
BLKS = 2
TO = -1.5
FGA = -1
FGM= 1
FTA= -1
FTM = 1

So say LBJ scores 20 pts (7-14 FG) (5-6 FT), 8 ast, 8 rebs, 1 stl, 1 blk, 4 TOs he would produce a score of 34 total points [(20) + (-7) + (-1) + (12) + (12) + (2) + (2) + (-6)]. This is a great system as it accounts for volume scoring, poor percentages, and TOs. I'm interested in hearing league input regarding the scoring system (ESPN only go to the tenth or 0.1).

I can guarantee that this league will be full of active owners and as you can see this is part of a larger vision to truly test our fantasy basketball skills by creating a 20 team contract league next season. SO ACTIVE AND DEDICATED OWNERS ONLY! I'll create a sign up list based on first come first serve. Not sure exactly how many GSOMers I can take as I'm giving priority to my real life friends, but I think I should have about 10-12 slots give or take a few.

When you sign up please list the day and time (specify time zone, I am i pacific) that would be best for you to auction. I'm shooting for Tuesday the Monday or Tuesday night or the 19th or 26th at 8 PM pacific.

Please reply by filling out this info:

E-mail:

Age:

Draft Time/Preference:

Fantasy Experience:

Peace.

FLAxWLESS

1. Jrich4mvp

2. ejdacanay

Stephen Jackson Wants a Better Team

FLAxwless — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 03:07:04 -0000

Stephen Jackson Wants a Better Team

Berri's take on SJax trade demands from Wages of Win Journal. Posted a week ago so hopefully it's not a double.

Grading the Warriors Off-Season

FLAxwless — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 11:03:02 -0000

Grading Warriors Off-Season: The 2009 Edition

via assets.sbnation.com

Last off-season I took a look at the moves the Warriors made and graded Mullin on each individual transaction and gave him an overall grade for the season. Little did we know that that would be the last off-season that Mullin would preside over in Oakland as he was replaced by Larry Riley. Not only has the decision marker changed but the circumstances the Warriors find themselves under this off-season could not be any different. Last year the Warriors were under the cap and had numerous players up for extensions. This off-season the Warriors are nearing the luxury tax with $60 million committed to 13 players. Unlike last season where the circumstances gave Mullin more flexibility and ability to impact the roster, Riley finds himself trying to improve the team with one arm tied behind his back. So with the proper perspective let's get on the way of reviewing the off-season.

I made some revisions from last year format and I will evaluate the Warriors draft pick and I will also add my expectations for this season and how it could lower and improve the grade through out the season as I will do mid- and end of season reviews like last year.

1. Trade Jamal Crawford for Acie Law and Speedy Claxton

Larry Riley's first move as GM was certainly a solid move for both the Dubs and Crawford himself who was a class act in Oakland. Gone will be the ankle breaking crossovers, 4 point plays, streaky shooting, soft as Charmin finishes, and matador defense and in comes a lottery bust at PG and an oft-injured PG we got rid of already. So while the Hawks got the best player by far in the deal, this trade is a positive for the Warriors due to our depth at the position (Jackson is Crawford minus the handles but plus defense and Ellis is a much more dynamic and efficient scorer than Crawford) and the financial flexibility/potential trade chips it brings in the expiring deals of Speedy and Acie Law (if the team option isn't picked up- shouldn't be) which sum to about 7.4 million.

People may think we could have held out for more but please find me a player who has a 10 million dollar contract, is up for trade, and would actually IMPROVE the Warriors? If that player existed I doubt they would be on the trading block to begin with. To make matters worse the other team has to actually WANT Crawford and be willing to pay him roughly 20 million for 2 years. Yep.

Grade: B

Expectations- Speedy and Acie Law are fighting for 12th man spot or enjoying courtside seats in suits. The Warriors let the cash come off the books at the end of the year thus keeping this from being an "A" grade.

Improves - This grade could improve over the course of the season if the expiring deals are actually traded for an impact player/draft pick AND/OR the slim as Brandan Wright chance that Acie Law becomes a legitimate starter. I'd be willing to take wagers against both.

Declines - We're talking about Nellie so if he ever trots out a line up of Acie Law, Speedy Claxton, CJ Watson, Monta Ellis, and Stephen Jackson against an NBA team someone please shoot me and put me out of my misery. The only way this lineup could ever win a game is if they joined the Philippine Basketball Association.

2. Drafting of Stephen Curry

Last year I got a lot of comments regarding the exclusion of the Warrior draft picks so this year I'll add my take of the Curry selection. I watch practically zero college basketball until March Madness comes around so this isn't a direct player evaluation (plus it would be foolish to give out grades before rookies have even played a NBA game). Rather, this grade is an evaluation of the decision making that Riley employed.

Leading up to the draft the Warriors were linked most often to Curry and Jordan Hill. The Warriors draft spot at 7 matched up to where Curry and Hill were generally ranked overall, meaning the Warriors didn't overvalue these two young players. After years of drafts where the Warriors reached for Foyle, Diogu, POB, and the like, just the fact that the Riley targeted the 7th best player at the 7th spot earns Riley a C even if he had chosen Hill. However, the Warriors choice of Curry makes this an even better selection. I am a firm believer in drafting the Best Player Available over need and the selection of Curry over Hill made it clear that Riley selected who he felt was the BPA.

Why do I think the Dubs went with BPA? 1) With Monta Ellis already having the role of SG in a PG body and the plethora of wingmen, the last thing the Warriors needed was to draft another combo guard. 2) Curry was selected despite the rumored negative repercussions on Monta Ellis and his ego. You don't possibly alienate your highest paid player to draft a "need." You only do that if you are confident he was the BPA. 3) The Warriors did not want to include Curry in an Amare deal. Again, you don't hang onto a "need" when you could acquire an All*Star big man.

Grade: B+ - Curry has the ability, pedigree, and college resume to justify his draft slot. If the Warriors truly felt they got the 2nd best player in the draft as I've read, then Curry is an absolute steal and the Warriors worked/read the draft masterfully or they figured that David Kahn is an idiot.

Improves/Declines- Riley made the correct decision during the draft so now the rest is up to Curry, Nelson, and the play of the rookies drafted behind Curry. Only reason the Dubs didn't get an "A" is because I would have loved to get Ricky Rubio instead.

3. Potential Amare Deal

Last year I discussed the MAX offers made to Brand and Agent Zero after BD opted out of his contract so discussing the near Amare deal has its place. When Warrior fans first saw the ESPN blurb regarding the Warriors acquiring Amare for Biedrins, Wright, Belinelli, and the 7th pick in the draft some were jumping for joy and others were afraid that the Warriors were giving up to much to get a injury prone and questionable player. You can count me in the group that was praying for this deal to go down if the 7th pick was excluded.

When he is healthy and motivated Amare is the most dominant offensive big man in the game. Despite his offensive dominance the reason he's up for trade is because of character concerns and an intimidating injury history. For an above average center, a PF with PG's mass, and one of the 1 billion wingmen on the team I'd take a chance on Amare's brilliance to fill the superstar void that BD created. Superstar players are hard to come by and when your team is lacking one you need to pursue it aggressively.

Grade: "A" for effort

Expectations - Expect the talks for Amare to heat up again by the trade deadline when the Warriors are battling for playoff positioning and have seen what Curry has to offer them.

Improves - If the deal can get done without adding more then Biedrins, Wright, and filler (Speedy, Law, George) then the Warriors would be etching their name into the playoff bracket.

Declines - If the Warriors trade for Amare and give up more then the offer on draft night we maybe gutting our team for a temporary band-aid.

4. Waive Jamero Davidson

He sucked. ‘Nuff said.

Grade: NC - No Credit... he sucked.

Expectations - You really had expectations for Davidson? Seriously? GTFO!

5. Trade Marco Belinelli for Devean George + Cash considerations

This is a trade that I felt the Warriors got the raw end of the deal and signaled the different circumstances that Riley is under as a GM. While Marco likely would not have made the rotation, I would rather have Marco over George to hold the 12th man role as he offers: ball handling, play making ability, defense, and shooting ability. He was not consistent but again when you're talking about a 12th man I'd rather have a streaky player with the chance to exploded for 20 points off the bench over a consistently below average NBA player.

The only reason this deal gets a passable grade is because Marco would be behind Monta, Jackson, Morrow, Magette, Azubukie, and eventually Curry on the depth chart. He would barely get any playing time and in a contract year that could be a distraction to the team a la Pietrus, 2 years before.

However, don't overlook the fact that this trade was mainly done to save Cohan some scrilla.

Grade: C

Expectations: George is a non-factor on the team despite what Riley says and the Warriors lets his contract expire next season. A win for Cohan.

Improves - If George can be utilized in a trade that brings a useful player to the team.

Declines - If George gets significant rotation minutes. He's past his prime and is on a 1 year deal. Azubukie last year was better than George at his peak and George is far from his peak. If George is in the rotation that means either we suck, Nellie is crazy, or both.

6. CJ Watson -Accepts 1 year qualifying offer

While CJ Watson has yet to officially sign once the Magic signed Asian Hater White Chocolate any hopes of the Warriors getting something for Watson disappeared with the wave of a wand. So this brings the CJ scenario to 2 possible endings: (1) he signs the 1 year tender and walks away next year with nothing to show for the NBDL call up (2) he signs the rumored 3 yr/4.5 million dollar deal and becomes a decently bench player.

Honestly, neither of these scenarios really excites me. If he walks away next year for nothing we would have missed out on the 2nd rounder and/or trade exception the Magic was offering. It's not much but it's still better then NOTHING and avoids having a disgruntled employee (I mean that's the ONLY reason they trade Marco right?). If he signs a multi-year contract he may replace Maggette as my least favorite Warrior due to Nelson's love for subbing CJ in for a big man during the closing stretch and then proceeding to watch the other team win on 2nd chance points. It's not a knock on CJ but I'd rather we limit Nellie's options.

No matter how the Warriors flubbed this deal we're still talking about a rotation player for just barely above the league minimum.

**REVISED THOUGHTS**

The Warriors tried to play hardball again with the Magic and CJ Watson and comes back to bite them in the butt. We missed out on an opportunity to add a 1st or 2nd (depending on what rumor you want to believe) and a trade exception just so we can have CJ Watson around for 1 more year. Players in contract years often tend to play harder, but for most players that means trying harder to score more points. That's fine and dandy when it's your superstar player (to an extent) but when it's a bench player you never want them forcing the action. Adding another unhappy player to Ellis and Jackson will do wonders for team morale as well!

Grade: Revised - F

Revised Expectations: Watson... if you thought he was a scoring PG last season wait until you see the 2009-10 CJ Watson. He'll be gunning or driving every chance he gets.

Revised moves: Hard to think of any scenario this improves. No way will a team give up any draft pick for a 1 year rental with a no trade clause.

Revised Declines: Anytime CJ is in the game.

Expectations: CJ Watson signs the 3 year deal for financial security and is a good solider biding his time until he can escape from the Bay. He's solid and would be a welcome holdover if anyone but Nelson was the head coach. He'll get some minutes here and there but the emergence of Randolph and Curry/Morrow should limit his PT.

Improves: If there is a team out there that would rather have Watson over Iverson or Ramon Sessions and works a sign and trade. CJ WATSON FTW!

Declines: Each time Watson is subbed in for a big man to close the game I'd hate him more and more.

7) Signing Mikki Moore

Is this the beef? Moore is what the recently departed Davidson will be if he sticks around the league. For the veteran minimum you're getting a high energy, high percentage shooting (decent mid range jump shot), and good FT% big man. You won't get many rebounds, blocked shots, or lock down defense but at least he plays with tons of effort. A quick look at the current FA big men available sadly shows that Moore is probably the best one left. Some "notable" big men FA out there are: Juwan Howard, Brian Skinner, Stromile Swift, Melvin Ely, Jason Collins. Howard is older and shorter then Moore while offering much of the same. I wouldn't mind actually Skinner because he is good rebounder, shot blocker, and provides the beef but his offensive game worse then Moore, which is pretty bad. Swift and Ely are athletic bigs who never fufilled their potential and never will and when you sign a Collins that is just desperation.

Grade: C+

Expectations: Moore is tethered to the bench and only plays when Biedrins, Turiaf, and Randolph are all in foul trouble or when Nelson is in search of a spark. We'll also here Fitz talk about Moore's snakes every time Moore enters the game. The Warriors need a big man on the bench and Moore is a solid option.

Improves: I don't see any reason this grade will improve unless Moore provides some type of timely game winning plays. However, if he's in the position to make those plays that means bad things for the Warriors.

Declines: Moore is solid but if he regular rotation minutes he'd be an epic fail. Biedrins, Turiaf, Randolph, and Wright should get PT over the vet.

Overall Off-Season Grade: C

This off-season was not about improving the basketball team, but rather improving the accounting books. Luckily for the Warriors the moves they have made this off-season has added more financial flexibility to the roster for expendable parts. If the new found financial flexibility will actually be utilized is a different story, but at least we have more options then before.

This brings us back to Larry Riley and the circumstances he is under. People may want to discredit Riley or bash Riley for his lack of moves, but with the global economic realities not every team can go into the luxury tax nor is it necessary to go into the luxury tax to become a winner. Luckily for Riley, the Warriors have some amazing young talent and barring a deal for Amare or Bosh, they would have been hard pressed to find outside help that would be more significant than standing pat and seeing the improvement from Randolph and Morrow in their 2nd years and Monta's true return from injury. Sometimes the best course of action is no action especially when Plan A (Amare Deal) fall through.

Even though Riley was less active compared to last season, it is apparent to me that Riley is a competent GM and not just a Nellie puppet. He has the ability to move unwanted contracts, takes measured aggressiveness in regards to trading for a superstar, and he drafts talent over need. These are all solid qualities for a GM and if he can properly evaluate and mesh talent then we may have found the architect to bring us an NBA Championship.

So how would you grade the Warriors off-season?

An In-Depth Study: Don Nelson Doesn't Play Rookies....

FLAxwless — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 04:59:26 -0000

An In-Depth Study: Don Nelson Doesn't Play Rookies.....

Rookies!?!

The Warriors have undergone a tremendous amount of transformation the past couple of years. We went from an up and coming playoff team only to return back to the familiar lottery faster than Monta Ellis can go on a moped. Gone is the golden buzz-cut of Mully, whom Nellie helped fight alcoholism as a player. In his place is the salt and pepper doo of Larry Riley, Nellie's drinking buddy. The face of the franchise is no longer the bearded smile of Baron Davis and the scowling face of Cap'n Jack but the baby faced trio of Monta Ellis, Anthony Randolph, and Stephen Curry.

That youth and potential has played a large part in turning the fans against the one man who remains at the center of all the success and madness..... Don Nelson. Nellie was a godsend from Maui when he led the Warriors to the playoffs, but due to a losing record and questionable rotations most Warrior fans are praying that Nellie takes the 5 hour trip to Maui on a one-way ticket.

Last season, many Warrior fans questioned why Wright, Randolph, Belinelli, and Morrow sat on the bench while Jackson, Maggette, and Crawford led the Warriors into the lottery. Detractors proposed that if you are going to lose you might as well lose with young players. This mentality only became stronger once Randolph and Morrow flourished with extended minutes late in the season. Detractors repeat that Nelson's distaste for young players stunted their growth because he was reluctant to give them game time. As the losses mounted and the 1st and 2nd year players continued to ride the pine, Warrior fans began to wish for the firing of Don Nelson. Suddenly, the man who led the team to the playoffs for the first time in 12 years was now the last coach many fans would want guiding the youngest team in the NBA.

Could that statement be true of the coach with the 2nd most wins in the NBA, a 3-time Coach of the Year, who only has 9 losing seasons in 30 years of coaching, and has turned around the Bucks, Mavericks, and Warriors (twice)?

I am a firm believer in looking at the past to learn about the future and to answer that question I went back and looked at EVERY 1st year player Don Nelson has coached dating back to 1976 with the Milwaukee Bucks. That's roughly 80 players over 3 decades! I collected and analyzed the players' minutes per game, games started, and games played for their 1st and 2nd seasons along with career achievements such as All*Star appearances, number of NBA seasons, and career minutes per game. Given the data set the results were strongly conclusive: DON NELSON DOESN'T PLAY ROOKIES.......... ONLY IF THEY SUCK!

***WARNING: THIS IS A LONG READ***

STUDY

For this study I used basketball-reference.com as a source for all the data. In an effort to show trends in Nelson's usage of young players I collected the 1st and 2nd year minutes per game, games started, and games played of rookies who broke into the NBA under Nelson. This means 2nd year players who played for a different coach their rookie seasons, but joined Nelson in their 2nd season were omitted. I then collected career milestones (All*Star appearances, career, mpg, and NBA seasons played) to use as a comparison and to define the quality of career the players went on to have. After I broke down the data amongst color-coded tiers and averaged out the 1st and 2nd year mpg, games started and games played to see if any trends emerge. This data is shown in the link to the table posted in the next section.

In calculating the averages I omitted the rookies of the 1994 season where Nelson left the team mid-way into the season as it impossible to determine who controlled the players minutes. Also, the Year 2 averages are calculated using only players who played for Nelson in their second seasons so some players such as Chris Webber, John Starks, and Devin Harris 2nd year numbers are not calculated.

NELSON AND PAST ROOKIES

How did I screw this up?

The spreadsheet can be intimidating to look at but the player lists should be clearly labeled and the color coding can be explained by the table on the right. The table on the right compiles all of the averages of Year 1 (blue), Year 1 without players who would only spend their rookie season in the NBA (green), and Year 2 (purple). It is then followed by the career barometers. This table is what the following section will discuss.

Table of ALL Nelson Rookies

The data shows the average Don Nelson rookie is nearly 23 years old and will play 14 minutes per game, start 11 games, and play in 40 games during their rookie season. For those fortunate enough to play their 2nd season under Nelson the average 2nd year player will play 21 mpg, start 26 games, and play in 62 games. For comparison during the 08/09 season the 64 rookies league wide averaged 12 mpg in 38 games, while the 2nd year players averaged 15 mpg in 40 games. I admit the league wide comparison for one season is a small sample set to compare to but it does show that Don Nelson generally uses rookies and 2nd year players at a same rate if not more so than the league average.

ETA: This is data comparing Nellie's past 30 years vs the past 4 years of MPG and 5 yrs of GP as tracked by NBA.com for those seeking a longer control. Pretty much the same results showing that Nellie is league average in use of rookies in regard to his peers. If someone wants to do a 30 year comparison be my guest.

Rookies:
- Nelson: 40.27 GP/ 14.11 mpg
- League: 42.85 GP/ 13.84 mpg

Sophomores
-Nelson: 62.75 GP/ 21.11 mpg
-League: 50.67 GP/ 16.99 mpg

When we look at the numbers divided by draft position: Lottery picks, Non-lottery 1st rounders, 2nd rounders or later, and undrafted FA (UDFA) we clearly see that the more "talented" players drafted in the lottery averaged more minutes than the other groups during the rookie seasons and that UDFA average 1 more minute per game than 2nd round or later players. This should be no surprise as lottery picks are considered to be more talented and franchises often play lottery picks more minutes to test out their new toys regardless of performance. However, once a player made it into the 2nd season, Nelson did not hand out playing time based on draft position. The Lottery picks, 1st rounders, and UDFA averaged around 20 mpg and in fact UDFA earned more minutes than 2nd rounders who averaged only 15 mpg in their 2nd seasons. We also see that games played and started are distributed along a downward trend from Lottery picks to UDFA with the exception of 2nd year non-lottery 1st rounders appearing in more games than lottery picks (injuries) and that UDFA had more starts than 2nd rounders or later.

One of the other criticisms of Nelson is that he hates playing young big men and we can see from the data that Nelson did play guards more than forwards and centers. However, this could be correlated to the players' actual talent level as the guards had higher career minutes per game compared to the forwards and centers. It is interesting to note that while the centers averaged less career mpg than the guards or forwards, their careers lasted longer. It just goes to show that you can stick around the NBA for a while just by being tall.

The next 3 levels are where we can see if Nelson truly has a bias against playing rookies and 2nd year players or if use of the rookies reflected their ability to contribute to the team. If Nelson truly has a bias against rookies we should see limited playing time in their 1st and 2nd seasons across the board no matter how the players are sorted.

When looking at the players by dividing up those who ended up appearing in multiple All*Star games, a lone All*Star appearance, and those who were never All*Stars we see that Nelson DOES NOT hate playing rookies. Actually, he has no problem making rookies starters if they had the ability to contribute to the team. Those who ended up playing in multiple All*Star games were instant contributors and starters in their 1st year with averages of 28 mpg, 65 games started, and 72 games played. In the 2nd year Nelson rode these players hard as they averaged 34 mpg and 80 starts in 80 games played. Those who appeared in one All*Star game had to earn Nellie's trust their rookie season in 15 minutes a game, but after one year they became rotation players by averaging about 24 minutes per game, starting 54, and playing in 76. These numbers clearly show that Nelson will play those with the ability to impact the game whether they are a rookie or 2nd year pro.

If you look at a player's career quality based on NBA seasons played we see similar distribution of numbers. Those who ended up having 10 plus seasons in the NBA played more minutes and started and played in more games during their first 2 years compared to those who ended up playing 5-9 years, 2-4 years, and those who were out of the league after their rookie seasons. Those in the 10 year vet tier were almost immediate NBA rotation players with 21 mpg/30gs/64gp Year 1 and a 26 mpg/42gs/74gp in Year 2. Using the third barometer of career quality, career minutes per game, we see that those in the upper tier, 29 mpg or more, were instant starters in their 1st and 2nd years 27mpg/61gs/72gp in Year 1 and 33mpg/72gs/75gp in Year 2.

It is clear that Don Nelson does not play rookies and 2nd year players based on an irrational hatred for them but frankly, because most NBA rookies and 2nd year players are not good enough to help the ballclub. This is evidenced by the fact that no matter what measurement of career quality you choose to use (All*Star appearances, NBA seasons played, and career minutes) the top tier always played more minutes and started more games their 1st and 2nd year compared to those below them.

Another revelation from studying Nelson's history of rookies is how adept a talent evaluator Nelson is. Except for a select few, by a player's second season Nelson was able to determine exactly how useful a player would be to a NBA team. This was shown by the fact that the players' minutes per game tiers matched their career minutes per game tier by their 2nd season. You can verify this by looking at the player list and comparing the colors.

Of all the 70 or so rookies who have retired or played long enough for us to get a firm grasp on their careers Nelson has only over or underplayed (based on mpg tiering) 10 players during their first two seasons in comparison to their career minutes per game tier. They are:

Player - (1st year MPG/2nd year MPG/Career) *- other coach

Underplayed (Players in whose MPG in 1st or 2nd season < tier than career average)

- Alex English - 10.8/18.9/31.9

- Scott Skiles (only rookie year under Nellie) - 15.8/14.9*/28

- John Starks (only rookie year under Nellie) - 8.8/19.2*/27.2

- Larry Robinson - 7.1/6/13.5

- Chris Gatling - 11.3/17.8/19.7

- Devin Harris (only rookie year under Nelson) - 15.4/22.8*/24.4

- Mbenga (only rookie year under Nelson) - 3.9/5.5*/6.1

- Pavel Poedkolzin (only rookie year under Nelson) - 2/18*/4.7

Overplayed (Players in whose MPG in 1st or 2nd season > tier than career average)

- Ernie Grunfeld - 17.3/21.7/18.6

- Andre Spencer - 23.9/12.6/16.1

Upon further inspection of that list you can see that see that even Nelson's "misses" can be cut down. In the underplayed category Harris, Mbenga, and Pavel only had their rookie seasons under Nelson since he stepped away from the sideline. Scott Skiles and John Starks left after one season under Nellie so he was not afforded a second season to see their improvements (you can also argue that Nelson let these talented player get away). Skiles mpg under a different coach in his 2nd year was similar to his rookie season under Nellie, but Starks did settle into his career tier mpg. Larry Robinson was able to improve from the 12th man to garbage time player so I don't really count that as a "miss" and Chris Gatling's 2nd season mpg was actually pretty close to his career average. Looking at the two players Nelson overplayed shows that Grunfeld's career mpg was pretty close to his 1st and 2nd year mpg and that Andre Spencer was overplayed in his rookie season but he fell into his career tier in his second and final season in the NBA.

This leaves out of the 70 or so rookies to play under Nelson only one true "miss" and what a miss it was..... Hall of Famer, Alex English. During his rookie season English was nothing more than a garbage time player. In his second season he was able to work himself into the rotation, but then he bolted to Indiana for his 3rd year until he was traded Denver where he went on to average 25 + ppg until he was 35. So did Nelson hold English back or did something click in English after he left Nelson in Milwaukee? We can't determine that from numbers but in Nelson's defense he has far more hits than this lone strike out.

From the data we see that Nelson does not have a bias when it comes to players and that production is all that matters. If you have talent to help the team win he'll play you whether you are a lottery pick, 1st rounder, 2nd rounder, or UDFA. He also has no problems making a rookie an instant starter as evidenced by Marques Johnson, Mitch Richmond, Tim Hardaway, Billy Owens, Latrell Sprewell, and Chris Webber. Nelson also is a master talent evaluator and can figure out a player's potential by the time they are in their second season in the league. Nelson's value of production regardless of draft position or experience and ability to evaluate NBA talent seems to make Nelson the PERFECT coach for a young team.

NELSON AND THE CURRENT WARRIORS

Nelson's chance to make up for C-Webb.

So what good is all of this info to us Warrior fans? Now that we established that Nelson does not have an irrational hatred/bias for young players we can look at the young players on our roster and put them and their potential in the proper perspective.

We'll start with the lone survivor of the 2006 rookie class, UDFA Kelenna Azubuike. A great indicator of Bukie's potential as an NBA player is that he improved his minutes per game from his rookie year in his second year in regards to tiers. He jumped into the orange tier (19-28.99 mpg) so he likely solidified himself as legit NBA rotation player who will spend 5-9 years in the league. His lack of starts in his 2nd season probably means he'll never sniff an All*Star game but for an UDFA you'd be thrilled just to get a NBA rotation player/spot starter, asking for an All*Star is just getting greedy.

From the 2007 rookie class we have Brandan Wright, CJ Watson, and even though he was recently traded Marco Belinelli.

As a rookie Brandan Wright played significantly less then the rookie averages of past Nelson lottery picks and forwards. He actually averaged minutes usually afforded to 2nd rounders or UDFA which is not a good sign. In his second season he improved enough to play 17.6 minutes per game but then was hampered by injuries. Despite the injuries, the lack of minutes that Wright did play in the games he was healthy for should be a red flag, especially on a team in need of a power forward. Just based on the numbers of Nelson's past rookies, Wright maybe out of the league after his rookie contract runs out. However, Wright is too skilled at scoring inside for that to actually happen but those expecting an All*Star or a potential starter should temper your expectations for Wright as it looks like he will be a career back up/spot starter. People like to point to Wright's youth, but do you know who were the last two PFs drafted in the lottery that Nelson had on his team for a full season? Dirk Nowitzki and Chris Webber. Both entered the league as 20 year old rookies like Wright, but Webber was an instant starter and Dirk made the leap in his 2nd year. What did Wright manage to do? Nothing. So age should not be used as an excuse for Wright. Who knows, Wright could be Alex English 2.0 but I wouldn't hold my breath.

Who knew the best player from this crop would be an UDFA? Watson parlayed a 10 day contract into spot on the team for his 2nd season where he, like Bukie, jumped into the orange tier. He should stick around the league as a back-up PG. The question is will he be in the Bay for a while or will he be re-uniting with Pietrus and Barnes in Orlando?

While Belinelli is no longer on the team, I'd like to go over his numbers since he was recently traded and due to his summer league performances and Nelson's comments, he gave some Warrior fans misguided hope of greater things to come. Marco had a dramatic improvement in minutes jumping into orange tier and like Bukie and Watson before him Marco looks to be a solid NBA rotation player but he's a long shot to be an All*Star given the lack of starts in his second year. Marco will likely be a rotation player, but he has upside to be an S-Jax like starter. As you can see the Warriors have enough "starters/NBA rotation players" at the wing spots so trading the one you would use the least for a practice body and cash is not a big deal especially considering the potential distractions a la Pietrus in 07-08. Nelson gave Marco a look and saw he didn't have "it."

This brings us to Anthony Randolph and Anthony Morrow aka the only reason I watched the 08-09 Warriors. While we can't plan their exact career arc right now since they're heading into their 2nd season the one thing we'll be able to do after this season is get a firm grasp of their true potential as NBA players as the 2nd year is pretty much the make or break year for Nelson rookies.

As an UDFA Anthony Morrow received playing time Nelson usually grants to 1st round draft picks. This is a testament to the ability of Morrow and Nelson's indifference to draft slot. Aside from Andre Spencer and Renaldo Major every player who played rotation minutes in their rookie year (8) went on to stay in the same tier in their 2nd season (6) or jump into the green tier and became All*Stars (2). So using strictly numbers from this limited sample Morrow has a 20% chance to be bust, a 60% chance to remain a solid rotation player, or a 20% chance to become an All*Star like Dirk Nowitzki and Josh Howard, players who started in the orange tier and jumped into the green tier in their 2nd years. I'm not saying those are hard cold truths, but at least you can see why the Warriors traded Belinelli and declared it was to clear room for Morrow, because Morrow has the potential to be an All*Star player unlike Belinelli.

Judging from the hype Randolph has been garnering this off-season most would be surprised to find out that using Nelson's history of rookies Randolph's chances of becoming the All*Star, franchise altering starter we've been hoping for is actually less than Morrow's. In his rookie season, Randolph averaged 17.9 minutes which puts him in the blue tier. Of all the Nelson rookies ZERO have gone from blue tier into the green tier in minutes per game which correlated with becoming a legit NBA starter and potential All*Star. There were 22 other rookies who started in the blue tier, 7 played with another coach in their 2nd season and 1 was out of the league after his rookie year. So out of the 14 players who played their rookie and 2nd years under Nelson: 5 remained in the blue tier and 9 improved enough to play in the orange tier (19 mpg - 28.99 mpg). So are our eyes fooling us and are we expecting too much from this young man? Maybe, but there is a glimmer of hope! Aside from the 18 year old Bruno Sundov, Randolph was the youngest rookie at 19 that Nelson has EVER coached. In fact there have been no other 19 year olds under Nelson's watch. That Randolph was able to earn the playing time that he did bodes well for Randolph and the Warriors. Nelson is treading new ground here with the young Randolph, but what better time for Nelson to have a young, All-World talented forward then a time in his career when people think Nelson hates playing young guys? Nelson has already declared Randolph the starter at PF so it's all up to Anthony now.

Now we come to the most recent potential "savior" for the Dubs. While, Stephen Curry has yet to play a minute in the NBA by the time his rookie season is over we should get a good grasp of his talent as he enters the league as a 21 year old rookie. He has the pedigree, experience, and skills that Nelson covets and it's now up to him to put the work into becoming an NBA player. He won't have the excuse of youth that Randolph has or the UDFA expectations of Morrow. He was a lottery pick and the road block to a deal that would have sent Amare to the Bay - so the expectations are great. If Curry averages less than 19 minutes per game this season (orange tier) you can pretty much consider him a long shot to become an All*Star caliber player because as I went over in the paragraph above if you start out in the blue tier your All*Star chances are slim to none. However, Nelson only played Devin Harris 15 mpg as a 21 year old rookie and whiffed on Alex English so he's not infallible. If he is able to average 19-28 mpg then he's on track to be a solid NBA player or potential All*Star. The best thing with Nellie's "tough love" on rookies is it really isolates the stud players. If Curry plays at least 29 minutes per game as a rookie you can pretty much pencil him into multiple NBA All*Star teams as 5 out of the 6 rookies who Nelson made instant starters went on to multiple All*Star games (Webber, Sprewell, Owens - played 10 years but not an All*Star, Hardaway, Richmond, and Marques Johnson). So while Curry's rookie year has yet to begun by the end of it we'll find out whether he's the PG of the future or just a pretender.

CONCLUSION

How long will we have to wait this time? Not long, I hope.

Hopefully after reading this we can put the Nelson "doesn't play rookies" myth to rest. I know after a tough season like last year, people begin to question the coach but as I stated before this is a 3 time coach of the year, who has only had 9 losing seasons in 30 years, and has turned around the post-Kareem Bucks, the Dallas Mavericks, and the Warriors twice. He is the perfect candidate to guide this young team because Nelson does not see draft positions or rookies/veterans, all Nellie sees is production. He runs his franchises under meritocracy. Those who produce, play, simple enough. Coaching a young team this way lets young players know that they have to work to earn their minutes and that nothing will be handed to them. While many see Nelson irrationally keeping rookies to the bench, now that you've read this hopefully you realize that the limited minutes is Nelson teaching these young men what it takes to be an NBA player. In the process only the strong will survive and those who flourish after their rookie seasons under Nellie seem to do so BECAUSE of him and not in spite of him.

So Warrior fans there are plenty of reasons to criticize Nellie (defense, small ball, etc) but he's honestly one of the best coaches to nurture a young team. The jury is still out on Wright, but I'd side with Nellie rather than the court of public opinion. Luckily for us he has already cultivated 2 solid NBA players in Bukie and Watson and has potential All*Stars in Morrow and Randolph. This season is an important one for the Dubs and will speak a lot about the future with so many young players in their formative years. Don't be surprised to hear at the end of next season how great Nellie is again after he gets a fully healthy squad fighting for the playoffs featuring Randolph, Morrow, Bukie, and Watson (?) as key contributors. I won't be and I'm sure Nellie won't either as he spent last year weeding out the weak and laying the foundation for Randolph and Morrow's 2nd year success. Let's go Warriors!

Thanks for sticking with me this long. Hopefully you read this and take a second of your life to "rec" this post. It would be much appreciated! Peace out.

The Amare Trade and EWA

FLAxwless — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 00:05:03 -0000

The Amare Trade and EWA

You can't say that Larry Riley isn't trying to improve the team given the trade talks that had emerged at the draft. Trading for Amare is a bold move considering the superstar talent Amare possesses, but as we know teams don't trade superstar talent away just because they are unhappy. So what will Amare do for the Warriors? How does the rumored trade affect the Warriors on the basketball court? Is it worth it? In this post we'll look at the impact of the trade on the team's EWA and try to determine if it's worth it. **Jae just beat me by a day in getting this out (a great post by the way) but another viewpoint doesn't hurt**

Refresher on EWA

In case you missed it here is the link my initial post regarding EWA and applying to the Warriors. If you haven't read it before than take the time to do so now, in order to help gain a better understanding of this post.

EWA and the Warriors

A quick refresher on the findings of the report that is pertinent to discussing the trade.

1) Rule of 45/8 - Most playoff teams had total of 45 EWA and Top 5 Avg of 8 EWA/player

2) With the Warriors lineup as is they are projected to break the 45/8 barrier meaning they would be in the playoff chase.

Finding #2 is why this trade proposal causes great discomfort amongst Warrior fans. With all the injuries last year we haven't seen what this young team is capable of doing. As Dub fans we have learned to live and actually come to love the concept of potential and a better future although we have seen that could take a decade to realize.

The Chart of Information

Most of the info I will be referring to is on this chart. So open the link and keep it handy.

Amare EWA Chart

Biedrins vs Amare

I love Biedrins as a player but anyway you look at it there should be no question WHEN healthy and in a run and gun system just who is a better player.

Looking at their estimated EWAs as centers (Amare's 08-09 EWA is higher than what is listed on ESPN because it is calculated as a PF) we see the huge disparity in EWA over the past 3 years since Amare has returned from microfracture surgery averaging 16.21 EWA as a center compared to Biedrins who has averaged 7.76 EWA. That's more than double the value that Andris brings to a team. If you want to look at PER ratings, Amare's worst season since returning from injury (last year) is still better than Andris' best season in his 5 year career (last year).

People like to make a big deal about the loss in rebounding and shot blocking but Amare averages 9 rebounds and 1.5 blks for his career (high 2.1/ blks and 9.6 rebounds) compared to Andris who averaged 8.2 rebounds and 1.2 blks (high 1.7/blks and 11.2 rebounds). Andris averages are weighted down by his early career numbers and I'll concede Andris is a better defender than Amare but the difference in defense is smaller than the wide gap on the offensive end. Amare scores more points, has a great FT% for a big man, and has the ability to score away from the key.

Some may look at the 08-09 numbers and point to it as evidence that Amare is slipping as their EWAs and PER were so close, but what it shows to me is that Amare's floor is Biedrins ceiling. At this point in their careers I don't think either man will improve significantly. Pretty much what we see now is what we'll get: Amare can be a Top 5 player in the NBA while Biedrins can be a Top 5 center. Which one would you rather have?

The Trade and Warrior's EWA

I don't think anyone would turn down an Amare for Biedrins deal straight up, but the reality is that in order to acquire a talent like Amare we have to give up talent. From the various media reports we know the working parts of the deal is Amare for Biedrins, Belinelli, Wright, and Bukie, Curry, or both.

The Upper Left box shows the Warriors projected EWA. I took out Watson's numbers and plugged in Curry/Law using Law's dreadful 10.68 PER from last year. The numbers used to project Amare's EWA are realistic and attainable, IMO. I used 33 mpg (career 34 mpg) which totals just above 2700 (he hasn't played more than 2700 since he returned for surgery) and used his average PER from the past 3 season. Without Amare the Dubs would still be a 45/8 team, but any trade acquiring Amare would increase the Warriors' Top 5 average to around 10 EWA per Top 5 player which would put the Warriors behind only the Lakers and Cavaliers. If you read the last post the Warriors weakness shown by EWA was not overall team talent but the lack of a superstar player/talent in the starting 5. Adding Amare even if it involved Biedrins, Belinelli, Wright, Bukie, AND Curry would result in a fearsome starting 5 that is a lock for playoffs and IMO a legitimate threat to the Western Conference Finals, but will our bench be good enough?

Most NBA coaches prefer an 8 man rotation and of all those possible combinations my ideal trade for Amare would be what ESPN reported. Amare for Biedrins, Belinelli, and Wright would leave a bench of Maggette, Morrow, Turiaf, and Curry. That is a solid bench rotation that gives you a little bit of everything: instant offense, a sharpshooter, a solid big, and a young combo guard.

My second option and take it or leave it trade would be Biedrins, Belinelli, Wright, and Bukie for Amare. This would weaken the bench as either Morrow or Maggette would be forced into the starting 5, but it would still be decent with Morrow/Maggette to back up the 2/3, Turiaf to back up the PF/C, and Curry/Law to take time at the 1 and 2 spots. Given how high Nelson is on Curry this would still produce a legitimate 8 man NBA rotation. Bukie is a solid NBA player but we have someone similar (albeit more expensive) in Maggette.

If we added to the trade Curry but left out Bukie we'd have decent depth as a team but you'd rely on Law/Watson as your primary back ups at PG and miss out on the closest thing to Steve Nash as Nelson says. Adding Bukie and Curry is just asking for trouble as we'd have to rely on Law and camp fodder to fill that 8th spot in the rotation after Morrow/Maggs and Turiaf.

So should we do the trade?

If it costs nothing more than Biedrins, Bukie, Wright, and Belinelli I would do trade for Amare if we can reach a long term agreement. Aside from the long term agreement and parting possibly with Curry (not gonna happen) every other complaint about the Amare trade does not overshadow his major positive - a legitimate Top 5 NBA player.

1) That's too many players to trade for one guy - If basketball were 10 vs 10 then you guys may have a valid complaint but only 5 people can play at a time. Also most NBA coaches and players prefer the stability afforded by an 8 man NBA rotation. The Warriors have a squad full of NBA rotation players (only team with + EWA for every player) but even adding Bukie we are only losing 1 projected rotation player (Bukie) as Amare and Andris cancel and Belinelli and Wright are not Nelson favorites.

2) Wright, Belinelli, Bukie, and Biedrins have potential - The dreaded word of potential. These guys do have potential but in my estimation none have the Top 5 player in the NBA potential that Amare possesses and has already proven he can be. Second, you can only realize your potential with game time and Wright and Belinelli would have gotten none barring injuries. Morrow and Randolph have overtaken both in the rotation and the plans of the franchise and justifiably so.

3) 2008-09 shows Amare is declining - I don't think that true at all. I think the biggest reason was the dysfunction in Phoenix. Once D'Antoni was fired the Suns lost their identity and tried to become a defensive team and work in some half court offense to cater to Shaq. What's funny is that the Suns two best players, Nash and Amare, are adverse to defense and the half court. Put Amare in a run and gun offense and you'll see the return of a beast.

4) He is a superstar entering his prime but he is injury prone and has a bad attitude - Does this sound familiar? It's so similar it's scary. Last time we traded for a young superstar that was injury prone and had a bad attitude it worked out quite well with BD. Amare flourished under D'Antoni and he should do the same under Nellie who coaches the style that suits Amare the best and is able to manage and connect to strong personalities like BD and Jackson.

Conclusion

The rumored trade for Amare is one about quality over quantity. Yes, we are giving up a lot of players but as long as we don't give up Curry and can reach a long term agreement, its well worth it IMO.

Biedrins is a very good center but does not have the potential of Amare, Belinelli and Wright are expendable as non-rotation players (you can argue withe Nelson if you want), and Bukie is undrafted FA who turned into a solid NBA player. You don't pass up a Top 5 NBA player who would single-handedly address ours issue regarding a post presence and superstar player because of Wright, Belinelii, and Bukie.

Yes there are risks, like is he Kenyon Martin 2.0 (becomes a role player once they don't have a playmaking PG), but considering the pieces we are giving up and what would be left on the team it's worth it for a chance at a dominating big who was born to play in Nellie's system. The last time we had such a player we traded him for potential - Tom Gugliotta and three 1st rounders. Hmmm.... so similar to the proposed Biedrins, Wright (1st rounder), Belinelli (1st rounder), and Bukie trade that some are against. I guess some Warrior Fans never learn, hopefully Nelson has.

To put it simply Amare is the difference between fighting for the 7th or 8th seed or fighting for home court advantage in the 1st round. Considering the asking price for Bosh is Biedrins/Ellis + Randolph, I'd take Biedrins + scrubs for Amare in a heart beat.

Luckily for us, Riley and Nelson are in the driver's seat in trading with Phoenix. We can play hardball knowing that other teams have to match our offer (unlikely) and that we don't need Amare as much as Kerr wants to get rid of him. The longer this drags the cheaper Amare's price will become and we'll see exactly whether the Suns think they can do better with 16 million in cap space when Amare opts out compared to Biedrins, Wright, Belinelli, and Bukie.

EWA and the Warriors - Answers all your questions

FLAxwless — Sat, 06 Jun 2009 04:46:23 -0000

EWA and the Warriors!

Any playoff hopes the Warriors had during the 08-09 season were destroyed the moment the team learned Monta Ellis injured his ankle in Mopedgate. The franchise crushing injury was just the first of many injuries that plagued the Warriors during the 08-09 season as the team rarely had their projected starting five of Monta, Jackson, Magette, Wright, and Biedrins on the floor at the same time and found themselves struggling to field enough players to play a game.

Many Warrior fans have pointed to injuries as the cause of the Warriors dismal record, but just how good could the Warriors have been last year with a healthy Monta Ellis? Would we be a playoff team? A championship caliber team? What can we expect from the Warriors for next season? What steps should the team make to become a playoff team? A championship caliber team? Should we trade for Chris Bosh? Amare? Boozer? Would Andre Miller push the Warriors like Billups did in Denver? These are all questions that Warriors fans find themselves asking as we watch the 2nd season unfold.

Luckily for us we are living in an age where every statistic you can think of is being created and tracked and this season John Hollinger introduced to us the Estimated Win Added (EWA) statistic. The statistic intrigued me and like any basketball fan I looked at how each of the players on my favorite team did. Then, I wanted to see how the Warriors stacked up with the Lakers and how it looked compared to the Kings. From there I ended up compiling the EWA of every player who qualified (need to play at least 500 minutes) on each NBA team. Compiling the data took some time but the information I have obtained from the data has been eye opening. It has been so informative it will help answer almost every question that Warrior fans have been asking themselves since this terrible season ended. It's a long read but hopefully you all appreciate the work and make this the most rec'd fan post ever.

EWA - What and Why?

Before I proceed with the analysis I should explain the EWA and why it is such a great statistic. John Hollinger’s PER is a good statistic as it quantifies a player’s effectiveness regardless of how many minutes they play on the court and standardized against all positions. As good as it is, PER has three faults:

(1) It projects player’s stats to 48 minutes basis

(2) It does not factor in positions

(3) It does not correctly factor defense (no statistic does).

PER assumes that a bench player who averages 10 minutes a game will simply be able to put up the same production when thrust into larger minutes. Because of that we have Brandan Wright as the 43rd best player in the NBA last season based on PER. While I like Wright there is no way he is the 43rd best player in the NBA. As NBA fans we also know that PG and a low post threat are the hardest positions to find quality players, where swingmen are dime a dozen. So contributions from these spots mean more. Also steals, blocks, and defensive rebounds which are factored into PER because they are the only "defensive" stats that are recorded are not reliable statistics to quantify a player’s defensive ability.

The beauty of the EWA is that it addresses two of the biggest weakness of the PER statistic by multiplying PER of a player by the total minutes played and giving each position a different replacement value which it subtracts from their PER (PF-11.5/PG – 11/ C-10.6/SG&SF – 10.5). The one downside (like PER or any basketball statistic) is the inability to accurately quantify defense and because of that Bruce Bowen is the WORST player in the NBA with a EWA of -3.8. Despite that wart it still produces a fairly accurate list of player rankings in the NBA as evidenced by a Top 5 of (1) Lebron, (2) Wade, (3) Chris Paul, (4) Howard, and (5) Kobe.

To check out how accurate the EWA is link the below:

EWA Top 50

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=rLwuOOLTgsz-vNWX3dXpIeQ&output=html

So what can we gain from EWA? By looking at EWA individually you can view the impact of each player on his team and by analyzing teams we can see trends emerge between the rosters of playoff and lottery teams that factor in coaches’ rotations and injuries due to the minutes played factor of the EWA calculation. Of all the new statistics out there I feel that EWA is as close as it gets to perfectly quantifying a player’s worth.

For further info regarding VA/EWA check out what Hollinger said:

Hollinger on VA and EWA

Analyzing the Warriors using EWA

Warriors Roster EWA

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=rsVLof1j9H2QvUJ8emfOPUQ&single=true&gid=0&output=html

By clicking the link above you can see what the Warriors Roster looks like based on EWA of every player who played more then 500 minutes. The Warrior who was worth the most wins was Andris Biedrins at 7.9 which rank as 50th in the NBA. Cap’n Jack is second on the team at 6.6 and Jamal Crawford rounds out the Top 3 at 5.4 EWA. Again I believe this is a pretty accurate list of the Warriors Top 3 players this past season. We all know how important Cap’n Jack and Biedrins are and Crawford single handedly won games with his scoring and clutch shots. It is also interesting to note that Randolph ranked 6th on the team despite Don Nelson refusing to play the rookie and that Maggette (5.1) and Azubukie (5.0) had nearly identical EWA despite the large disparity in contract value.

The EWA by team shows that the Warriors are the DEEPEST team in the ENTIRE NBA. Partly due to injuries, which gave more players minutes, and mostly due to the improved play of Azubukie, Watson, Morrow, Belinelli, and Randolph the Warriors have the MOST players with a positive EWA (12) and are actually the ONLY team without players possessing a negative EWA. Adding up the EWA of the players the Warriors’ total of 48.30 ranks as 7th best in the NBA trailing only the: Lakers, Nuggets, Blazers, Mavs, Jazz, Cavs, and Suns. Yes, that means the Warriors have a more talented roster than the Eastern Conference Champs, Orlando Magic. However, that’s as good as it gets. The Warriors average of 4.03 EWA per qualified player ranks middle of the pack at 14th in the NBA which is ahead of some playoff teams, but also behind some lottery teams. It only gets worse as compiling the average of teams’ Top 5 players, the Warriors mark of 6.0 ranks as 26th in the NBA ahead of only the Clippers, Kings, Bucks, and Pistons. Not exactly the company the Warriors wants to be keeping.

So what do all these numbers suggest? It shows that the Warriors have a roster full of legitimate NBA rotation players as evidenced by the EWA total and per player average, but had one of the weakest starting 5s in the NBA which was shown as Don Nelson changed starting line ups like Sean Combs changes names. This is not a revelation to Warrior fans that have been searching for a difference maker since BD left, but it is always comforting when observations are supported by statistics.

EWA Analysis of Lottery Teams

EWA of Lottery Teams Chart

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=rsVLof1j9H2QvUJ8emfOPUQ&single=true&gid=2&output=html

When one examines the EWAs of lottery teams there are some clear trends that emerge. The biggest trend is the numerical value of total EWA of the lottery teams especially when you throw out the Suns (the only lottery team with a winning record). Of the 13 remaining lottery teams only our beloved Golden State Warriors had a total EWA greater than 40. This is expected of course as if the team were more talented they wouldn’t be a lottery team but the lack of talent and production on the lottery teams is remarkably drastic. Lebron James by himself had a EWA of 32.30 which is more than the ENTIRE roster of 7 lottery teams - T’Wolves, Grizz, Thunder, Clips, Kings, Bucks, and Wizards. This not only highlights how bad these teams were this past season, but the impact a true superstar can have on a team.

The per player averages of lottery teams varied from as low as 1.68 per player (Kings) to as high as 5.27 (Suns). When you throw out those two extremes, looking at per player EWA most range from 2-3.72 and only the Warriors, Bobcats, and Raptors broke the 4 EWA/player. While the Warriors have the deepest team in the NBA, the Bobcats and Raptors had the shallowest teams in the NBA with only 8 players qualifying for EWA. Despite having the most talented player not in the playoffs, Chris Bosh (15.6 EWA/11th overall), the Raptors failed to assemble a legitimate 8 man NBA rotation with only 6 players (including Bosh) having a positive EWA, which tied for the league low with the Wizards, Thunder, and Grizzlies. It’s no surprise Bosh can’t wait for the 2010 off-season.

Another common trend is the Top 5 average for most lottery teams is < 7 with only the Suns, Nets, and Raptors breaking the 7 EWA/Top 5. In summary, the lottery teams just did not have enough talent and depth to compete with the playoff teams. Nothing surprising, but again it proves how accurate/useful the EWA statistic is especially once we compare and contrast them with playoff team trends.

EWA Analysis of Playoff Teams

EWA of Playoff Team Chart

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=rsVLof1j9H2QvUJ8emfOPUQ&single=true&gid=1&output=html

So while the previous section did nothing but show how horrible most of the lottery teams were, looking at the EWA of the playoff teams shows strong trends and the many ways to build a contender. Compared to lottery teams all but one of the 16 playoff teams broke the > 40 EWA total and it should be no surprised that it was the 8th seeded Detroit Pistons that failed to break the 40 EWA benchmark for playoff teams. The per player EWA of playoff teams ranged from 3.33 (Pistons) to 5.49 (Lakers) which proves it is a less reliable marker for separating lottery and playoff teams as their ranges over lap a bit. However, once one looks at EWA/Top 5 you finally see the greatest barometer that separates playoff teams from lottery teams. When you look at the Western Conference and the Big 3 from the East (Cavs, Celtics, and Magic) only the Houston Rockets had EWA Total < 45 and an EWA/Top 5 < 8.00/player. Compare this to lottery teams where only a few teams cracked EWA Total of > 40 and 7.0 EWA/Top 5 and it’s fair to say that if your team has a total EWA > 45 and Top 5 avg of > 8 you are likely to be a playoff team.

The only outliers to the 45/8 rule are the Rockets and the Suns. The Suns won 46 games and were in the playoff chase until the end of the season and would surely be a playoff team in the East. So their absence from the playoffs is a matter of logistics rather than talent. Despite the Rockets poor numbers (only ahead of lowly Detroit amongst playoff contenders) they made the playoffs due to their defense and heart… two attributes which PER/EWA does not correctly account for. Houston is a great outlier because it is THE trailblazing team regarding advanced statistics in scouting and its success is a testament to the work that the stat guys in Houston are churning. They are winning games although common statistics say otherwise. As a Warrior Fan I wish our front office was as forward thinking as Houston’s.

Examining the rosters of the playoff teams also show the variety of ways to build a playoff team. Most of the Western Conference teams had a Top 2 that consisted of an inside/outside combo with only the Rockets having a Top 2 of a PF and C (Scola/Yao). This is in contrast with the Eastern Conference which has more Top 2s consisting of perimeter players, only Orlando and Miami have inside/outside combos of Howard/Lewis and Wade/Beasely. Again, the EWA shows its accuracy as the tried and true basketball idiom of an inside/side attack being the key to a championship looks to be prevalent amongst the Western Conference playoff teams and the eventual NBA Finals competitors. The EWA also shows a one man operation like the Cavs and teams built around 3-4 very good players like the Nuggets and Celtics can also contend for a title. So while EWA has shown that 45 total/8 top 5 is needed to be a strong playoff team there are several ways to get there: the one man show (Cavs), 3-4 All*Star players (Celtics/Nuggets), or having a clear Superstar and a sidekick(s) (Magic/Lakers).

Warriors EWA Comparisons

Warriors EWA Comparion Chart

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=rsVLof1j9H2QvUJ8emfOPUQ&single=true&gid=5&output=html

Comparing the Warriors numbers to the playoff teams, western conference playoff teams, lottery teams, and the league average shows just how unique the make up of the 08-09 Warriors was. Even with all the injuries the Dubs roster is not as bad as the nay-sayers and doom and gloom reporters have been spouting. The Warriors have the overall talent to compete with playoff teams and plenty of depth, but the Achilles heel of the 08-09 Warriors is that there is little difference between their starting 5 and the bench. This isn’t a bad problem to have as the Warriors have legit NBA rotation players, but highlights the fact that the Warriors were doomed to fail once BD took his 14.07 EWA in 07-08 to LA LA Land and Monta Ellis rode a moped to disgrace. Examining the EWA makes it pretty cut and dry where the Warriors need to improve in order to make playoffs in the West by reaching the 45/8 barometers.

****If you’re trying to read this in one sitting this is probably a good place to take a quick break or if you didn’t realize how freakin’ long this was- this is a good place to stop****

What If Monta Didn’t Get Injured?

Many Warrior fans point to the injury of Monta Ellis as the sole reason for the futility of the team, but the number suggest otherwise. The previous analysis has shown that the Warriors Top 5 EWA of 6.0 per player falls significantly short of the 8.0 EWA that every Western Conference playoff team had, except for the Rockets. Again, I believe the Rockets are an anomaly because of their cutting edge statistics which accurately values their players and their defensive abilities.

If the injury never happens and Monta Ellis simply performs at his 07-08 PER of 18.92 for 37 mpg for 82 games, Ellis would have added an EWA of 11.95. This would have been easily #1 on the team but the Top 5 EWA average of Ellis (11.95), Biedrins (7.9), Jackson (6.6), Crawford (5.4), and Maggette (5.1) would still be short at 7.39. That is a huge improvement from 6.0 but wouldn’t be good enough to compete for playoffs. Just for fun let’s take a look at the 07-08 Warriors.

How good were the Warriors in 07-08? The Top 5 of BD (14.07), Ellis (12.86), Jackson (6.31), Harrington (4.51), and Biedrins (8.69) had an average of a mind numbing 9.29 EWA. You see that BD and Monta were our two best players in 07-08. So losing both during the off-season practically made us a lock for the lottery before any games were ever played.

In summary, Monta would have surely improved on the 29 wins, but the Warriors would not have been a playoff caliber team even with him healthy. There were just too many injuries and frankly the Warriors truly did miss the presence of a motivated and healthy Baron Davis.

Looking ahead to 09-10…

So what can we expect for the 09-10 Season? If everyone comes back at full strength and remains healthy, WITHOUT any moves I expect the Warriors to significantly improve and compete for a playoff spot based on the projected EWA of the following rotation.

Projected EWA of Warriors

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=rVDpWrm8OSHQ4ol-b_vbfAw&single=true&gid=2&output=html

The Projected 09-10 lineup features Ellis, Jackson, Azubukie, Randolph, and Biedrins as the starting 5 and Watson, Morrow, Magette, and Turiaf of the bench as regular rotation players. Looking at that 9 man rotation leaves out Crawford, Belinelli, Wright, Davidson, and the #7 pick. The projected EWA of that team is 55.13 Total and 8.322 for the Top 5 (Magette as 6th man has a higher EWA than starter Azubukie). That puts them right over the 45/8 benchmark we talked about earlier. The good news is the Warriors will probably improve on those EWA projections due to the natural development made by the young players in the starting line up: Ellis, Azubukie, Randolph, and Biedrins and the contributions of the players not in the regular rotation. The Warriors also have a projected Top 2 of Ellis/Biedrins which follows the inside/outside game that dominates the Western Conference and the distribution of EWA amongst the team is similar to that of the 08-09 Nuggets and Jazz with 2 players over or near 10 EWA surrounded by players in the 4-6 EWA range.

This maybe an outlandish prediction to most GSOMers, but even after the season ended and before I did this study of EWA, I truly believed that the Warriors are much closer to playoff contention than being doomed for the lottery. The 07-08 team that won 48 games was front loaded but suffered from poor bench production. The 08-09 Woe-rriors suffered from injury and missed BD, but were able to discover and develop several legit NBA rotation players. Next season, the Warriors hopefully will get back 3 healthy players from the 07-08 (Ellis, Jackson, and Biedrins) AND reap the benefits of the 08-09 campaign with battle tested, young NBA players with tons of room to improve in Azubukie, Randolph, Morrow, and Watson. During their brief stints on the court this season, Ellis proved he can become what he once was and Randolph flashed superstar potential.

While many will write the Warriors off, I have hopes that the 09-10 Warriors will become a young competitive team that features a strong starting line up led by Ellis and Biedrins supported by a bench that would rival anyone in the league.

So what about Chris Bosh? Amare? Boozer? AK-47? Andre Miller?

Projected EWA Chart

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=rVDpWrm8OSHQ4ol-b_vbfAw&single=true&gid=2&output=html

Using EWA I wanted to see what would happen if the Warriors were able to land their next Holy Grail. I didn’t go into the trouble of making a deal work financially (too complicated with Ellis/Biedrins still BYC) but I just wanted to see the impact on the roster if we traded a combo of Ellis/Randolph/Biedrins for Bosh (the principal pieces we heard reports of at the deadline).

In the 3 combos that I tested a Ellis/Biedrins trade for Bosh would actually make the Warriors WORSE compared to keeping the team intact. The reason is that Crawford can’t hold a candle to a healthy Ellis production wise and that gap is larger than the upgrade from Biedrins to Chris Bosh. The other downside to this trade is that while Bosh and Biedrins have reached their potential peaks (their PERs have remained consistent the past few years), I feel Monta Ellis still has room for improvement and the tools to become 28-30 ppg scorer. We also risk Bosh bolting after a year if he refuses a sign and trade and I’m not sure how Bosh and Randolph would play together as they are both so similar.

The other two combos of Ellis or Biedrins + Randolph will improve the Warriors in 09-10 for sure and almost make them a lock for Playoffs but would they win a championship? Despite the gaudy EWA Totals and Top 5 average that would put them right behind the 08-09 Cavs and Lakers, when you stop looking at statistics and see how the pieces fit it doesn’t really look like Championship material. Do you really see a big man rotation of Bosh, Turiaf, and Wright contending for a title if we trade Biedrins and Randolph for Bosh? Is Crawford/Watson a Championship caliber PG rotation if we send Ellis and Randolph packing? The numbers suggest either trade would make the Warriors elite, but I just can’t see it being plausible given the weakness of the 1 or 5 spots. Another big factor is that Randolph looks to be a young Chris Bosh in the making. In fact Randolph had a better rookie year PER than Chris Bosh (16.94 vs. 15.24). They are intriguing trades and could potentially be worth the gamble if the team meshes like the numbers suggests, but I feel given time to mature Ellis, Randolph, and Biedrins can take us further than Bosh could on his own.

As for Amare last season his PER and EWA were less than Bosh’s so his impact would be similar to Bosh if we trade for him. The one reason why Amare may be worth the risk is he has had a PER high of 27.29 in 07-08 compared to Bosh who has hovered around 23, with a high of 24.23 in 07-08. That 07-08 season resulted in an EWA of 22.23 which would put him in the Top 3 of all players, but that potential comes with some character concerns and no defense. Ditto for Boozer who has PERs inferior to Bosh and Amare.

Regarding the Maggette for Ak-47 rumors I would do that trade in a heart beat. Last season AK-47 had a EWA of 5.5 compared to Maggette’s 5.1 and it also don’t account for the defensive improvement AK-47 would bring. Would the Warriors be championship material? No, but they would compete for playoffs.

What about Andre Miller? I don’t know how we would sign him but if we added him to our roster we’d probably be looking at a Chauncey Billups type of impact as he had an EWA of 11.4 last season (greater than Billups actually) and would give the starting lineup it’s 3rd double digit EWA player along with Ellis at SG and Biedrins at C. If we do get him it would have to be through sign and trade and as long as we don’t part with Ellis, Biedrins, and Randolph I’d try and make it happen for a short term fix. A projected starting 5 of Miller, Ellis, Jackson, Randolph, and Biedrins would have a Top 5 EWA of 8.96 if Miller played 30 minutes a game with the same PER as last season. Again that would put us over the 45/8 bench mark.

So how should the Warriors handle the draft – BPA or Need?

Compiling all of the EWAs has shown that there are many ways to build a title contending team. We have seen teams like the Celtics and Nuggets who have 3 very good players be successful. This is a good thing for the Warriors as a team without a superstar they can continue to build around Ellis, Biedrins, and Randolph. However, you can’t help but notice teams like the Cavs, Hornets, Magic, and Heat which are built around one super stud that each team drafted.

The only thing separating the Cavs from the Kings is LBJ’s EWA of 32.30, which is more than the entire Kings’ roster and in fact more than the rest of his teammates combined. We saw the impact of D-Wade on the Heat and if you look at the Hornets it’s basically CP3 and West on that team with a bunch of scrubs. While one player won’t guarantee success (see Bosh in Toronto), it’s easier and faster to build a Championship level team around 1 superstar player than it is to compile 3 very good players a la Denver and Boston. In fact only a handful of playoff teams are led in EWA by a player that was not drafted by that team – Denver w/ Billups, Atlanta w/ Johnson, and Detroit w/ Hamilton. Meaning 13 out of 16 playoff teams are built around and led by players they drafted.

Given the fact that one player can make such a large impact and that these players can only be found through the draft it should be a given that you ALWAYS draft BPA over need. When you play it safe you get Todd Fuller, Adonal Foyle, and Joe Smith. Swing for the fences and well as Warriors fans we know all too well what happens. You may strike out more often, but when you do the payoff changes the course of the franchise.

Conclusion

The Warriors are a team in transition from the highly successful We Believe Era to the Young Warriors. The team has talent and the EWA analysis supports that claim, but the 08-09 season was not a smooth transition year for the club due to Mopedgate and the overall health of the roster. However, Warrior fans if you believe in EWA like I do we should jump right back into the playoff chase in 09-10. The Spurs and Mavs are only getting older, Utah could lose Boozer, the Suns have Steve Kerr as GM and Sarver as owner, and the Hornets need to give away talent in order to stay financially solvent. The west is competitive, but unlike other teams the Warriors have solid young talent that looks to be ready to compete next season.

The Warriors could make a move for Bosh but I personally think we’d be giving up too much for him as Ellis, Biedrins, and Randolph are young players with great futures ahead of them. I think Biedrins has maxed out ability wise, but I think Ellis can become an elite scorer (28-30 ppg) and the sky is the limit for Anthony Randolph. If we can swing a deal without including any of these players (0.00001% chance of that happening) then bring in Bosh and an NBA title soon after. However, more realistic moves such as AK-47 for Maggette and/or acquiring Andre Miller would improve the Warriors in the short term and wouldn’t force us to mortgage our future. The Warriors also shouldn’t hesitate to trade players from the wing positions if it means acquiring a stud starter.

With the #7 pick the Warriors shouldn’t focus on drafting a PG to start next to Monta Ellis, but they should focus on drafting the best player available even if it is a under-sized PG or another wingman. Superstar players rarely change teams or can be had in trades so the draft is the only chance teams have at getting a stud player. You can’t skip that opportunity.

So Warriors fans you can stop asking all those questions. Thanks to EWA we know what could have been, what will be, and what we should do. Now relax and enjoy the wait until opening night.

Lastly, I’d like to thank you all and commend you guys for making it to the end. It’s a long read but hopefully you enjoyed it and found it as informative as I did in researching and writing the article. If you did, please take a second and rec this post! Thanks.

Final Grade of the 08 Off-Season (Part 3 of 3)

FLAxwless — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 22:12:35 -0000

The season has ended, so now it's time to review the moves the Warriors made prior to this season and give them a final grade. It was a hard season Warrior fans, so hopefully we can take some of the few positives as we head into the '09 Off-Season.

Below is the link to the mid-season review for those who need a refreshed of the original grades and what was said at the mid-term.

Mid-Season Review of Off-Season Moves

Here she blows...

She here she blows:

1) Not re-signing Baron Davis

I don't know about you, but during our playoff push last year I began to wish Nelson didn't give BD so much leeway. With each 3 pointer he chucked, instead of taking it to the rack and his matador defense trying to go for pokes... I began to hate him. The one sequence that sticks in my head is against the Nuggets in a do or die game for the final playoff spot... sometime in the late 3rd/early 4th the Warriors down by 4 points or so had 3 defensive stops in a row... sadly the defense went for nothing as BD launched 3 pointers instead of working for a better shot. After that time I knew that we got the best out of BD the year before... the unstoppable bowling ball during the last month of the season and in the playoffs.

Next season our win total maybe lower, but that extra year of experience without BD will do wonders for Ellis, Biedrins, and the rest of the young guys as they learn to win in the NBA and gain experience a steh go-to guys... this could lead to more wins in the future.

GRADE: B .. Next season we will suffer, but it will pay off in the future.

Mid-Season Grade: B

Hard to make this an "A" given how poorly the Warriors are doing but I believe that is more a function of injuries and losing Monta than losing BD. However, one just has to look at what BD is doing in Clipperland to see that once BD gets his money he reverts back to the injury prone and still horribly shooting BD. He's missed the past two weeks with a bruised assbone for christ's sakes!!! Again, the last two seasons in a Warrior uniform were the best we were going to ever get from BD and that amounted to a 2nd round playoff berth and followed by a 48 win team that missed the playoffs. Like Kenny Rogers sings, "You gotta know when to hold, know when to fold 'em, know when to walk away, know when to run." This is one of the few decisions that Rowell has gotten right.

Final Grade: B+

BD's play and attitude in Clipperland make me comfortable in changing this from a B to an B+. He's proven Rowell and critics alike at being a risky player to drop a long term contract on. However, one can only wonder how different this season would have played out for BD and the Warriors had he stayed. It's clear the Warriors missed BD's leadership and confidence, but his true impact cannot be measured because the Warriors were decimated by injuries. However, the playing time the younger players received since BD was out is a plus.

2) Offering Brand and GA Max contracts

These were genius moves by Mullin. Had he landed either player the Warriors would've been a lock for playoffs IMO.. with that said and as much as it hurts to say this as Gilbert Arenas is my favorite player... Brand would've been a much better fit for the Warriors. I'd much rather pay 100 million for a stud big man who can do it all than perimeter oriented scorer (as clutch as GA is).

GRADE: Brand (A) - Well worth the shot and would actually IMPROVE the team. Arenas (C) - The Warriors would be no better than a 48 win team and potentially worse with GA at point over BD. Plus he plays the same position as Ellis and you have yourself a team that has tied up it's capspace for status quo. You don't committ 100 million to 1 player for status quo.

Average: B .. Well worth the shot.

Mid-Season Grade: Brand (A) - Despite his injury and his effect on the 76ers I still think he would have made this team a playoff team. He's Randolph's defense and Brandan Wright's offense mixed into one with veteran status... Don Nelson would cream in his pants if he got Brand. Arenas (F) - The only reason my original grade was so high was because of my man-love for GA and you can ignore the fact that I actually thought he'd be healed. It's a blessing Polin paid GA or else we'd be stuck with an 100 million dollar blogger.

Final Grade: Brand (C) and Arenas (F)

I still think Brand would have been a worthwhile addition, but the injuries and the emergence of Randolph make this move less appealing. Arenas - Wow. Glad DC paid GA. He's still my favorite player but his knee is going to be an issue for the rest of his career.

3) Signing Corey Maggette 5yrs/50 million

Corey is a good player and a I'm glad he'll be abusing opposing teams instead of abusing us. Two things I love about Maggs is: (1) He makes FTs (2) He will not be denied to the rim. This is what the Warriors were lacking last year... someone who wouldn't settle for jumpshots and is confident in their FT shooting. Two things I hate about Maggs: (1) He is not a playmaker (2) He will not be denied to the rim. What this means is Maggette is BALL HOG CITY!! I just hope that was all due to the Clippers being depleted and him being in a contract year, but Maggs is a black hole. He can kill an entire offense for stretches since he rarely gives up the rock. If this Warrior team is to succeed they will need to share the rock.

While he has more positives than negatives.. paying Maggs 10 million a year is A LOT when the most he was looking at was mid-level exceptions.

GRADE: C ... Sign Maggs for 5 years/40-42 million and this becomes a B instead.

Mid-Season Grade: D

Pretty much can copy and paste what I said in the off-season report card. Maggs has been what I thought he would be coming in a steady scorer who is BALL HOG CITY and does little else. Why does his grade get lowered? Mostly due to the continued stellar play of Bukie, the emergence of Bellinelli and Morrow, and the trade for Crawford. If the Warriors knew back than what they know now, you can bet they would have made a play for someone else or at least low balled Maggs.

Final Grade: F

One season of Maggs is all I can take. Sure he can put up points and rebounds a little, but that's it. He just kills the entire offense when he's in the game because he dominates the ball and that mentality INFECTS everyone else. You can't beat opposing teams if you're playing 1 on 1. At least he's accepted the 6th man role, but I'd much rather have Buike (I'll get to him later) or Morrow (him too) play the role of 6th man off the bench. He's a limited player and unfortunately we're stuck with him for the next 2 or 3 years, unless we find someone crazy enough to eat the next 40 million (not holding my breath).

3) Signing Ronny Turiaf 4/17 million

This was a solid signing by Mullin providing the Warriors our own Milsap/Power. again like Maggette this was a guy who would tear us up. Glad he's with us now. He can run, block shots, play some defense, and has a solid mid-range shot. 4 million a year for a servicable big man is market value. Only negative is what does this mean for Richard Hendrix?

GRADE: B... solid player and gives us a reliable back up behind Biedrins.

Mid-Season Grade: B

Everything you thought you'd be getting and than some. Only wish is he'd stop trying to block every shot, so he can actually position himself and grab rebounds. People wonder how someone who blocks so many shots can be a poor rebounder? It's because Turiaf tries to blocks anything and everything in Oracle.

Final Grade: A

One of the great deals of the past off-season. He's the anchor of our defense, heart of the team, and a great leader. It's not often that you get all of that for $4.25 million a year. While he'll never be a All*Star or someone you'd want to be a regular starter, Turiaf's minutes on the floor are usually a positive for the team. He plays great man D, terrific help shot blocker, and on offense he has a decent jumpshot and passes well for a big. He's a very good rotation player and only a trio of talent like Bynum, Pau, and Odom could render Turiaf expendable. I bet other teams are kicking themselves for not signing Ronny.

4) Trading for Marcus Williams

I love this move a lot more than most. I liked Williams coming out of college and wanted the Warriors to draft him instead of POB. He got stuck behind Kidd and had a injury short his 2nd season in the league. However he is a pure point guard that can create for others, shoot 3s, steal the ball, and play little defense (sound familiar). Not bad for a future 1st rounder.

He'll be a back up PG to start, but I could see Nellie using Ellis and Williams together. Wouldn't be suprised if Williams eventually plays himself into the 6th man role.. leap frogging Buike as the 6th man and 1st guard off the bench.

GRADE: A... great potential at a need position for very little investment (lottery protected 1st rounders or two 2nd rounders).

Mid-Season Grade: INC

Honestly, I loved the trade and still think Williams has potential. He couldn't even get in during Triple OT after Maggs was fouled out and he was the only available guard. I was at the game and I would have bet money that Nelson would put Williams in b/c he was the only guard left but he put in Kurz!! That just goes to show how deep in the doghouse is Marcus Williams when Don Nelson elects to play a big over a small in crunch time.

Final Grade: F

The guy isn't even on our team anymore. This one move right here explains the whole mess the front office has become. We've given up most likely two 2nd rounders for nothing in return because the Coach and GM couldn't get on the same page. He did tear it up in the D League, get signed by the Spurs, but sent back down for playoffs. So we'll see where he ends up

5) Matching Azubukie 3yrs/9 million

Another good move for Mully. Buike will develop into a solid starter/6th man who plays within himself, can take it to the rack, shoot 3s, and play defense. Matching Buike also prevents him from making a division foe better (instant upgrade form their bench and potential starter there) and allows us more flexibility in the future as a potential trading chip or insurance at the SG/SF when Jackson's contract runs out and if Bellinelli never pans out. Maybe we're biased, but we all know Bukie will become a good NBA and getting a YOUNG rotation player for 3 million a year is a great move.

GRADE: A ... could be better than Maggette

Mid-Season Grade: A.

Like I said dude will be better than Maggette and costs about 7 million less! A great Mullin find and a super-duper contract.

Final Grade: A+

Buike is has become a very good NBA player and that's a credit to his work ethic and the coaching staff. While he'll never be a superstar he'd be a terrific 6th man or a 3rd/4th option in the starting line-up. I said at the beginning of the season he COULD be better than Maggette... well there is no doubts about it now. HE IS BETTER THAN MAGGETTE! He can take it strong to the rim like Maggs, but he adds a LEGIT 3 point shot, DEFENSE, and is actually willing to pass the ball. His play and cheap contract make him a valuable asset to the team as a rotation player or trade chip.

6) Re-signing Monta Ellis 6yrs/66 million

What more is there to say? Monta is our future, he is our franchise and will be a real offensive threat unlike J-Rich because he has better handles and can jump off 1 foot. Monta Ellis can consistently get himself to the rim and has great finishing ability, couple that with his mid-range game and you have yourself an elite offensive player. His defense just needs to improve and I believe Monta has the work ethic to become a better defender. At the end of last season he also showed better playmaking ability and actually feed Biedrins the ball more in Pick and Roll situations over BD. I would much rather have Ellis for the next 6yrs for 66 million over Gilbert Arenas. People may say we overpaid... but Parker signed for the same deal and Ellis right now is just as good as TP, IMO.

GRADE: A ... Ability to get to the rim, finish, and mid-range game make him a lock to continue becoming an ELITE offensive scorer.

Mid-Season Grade: "F" YOU!!!

He's the sole reason for the Warriors suckieness (I'll detail it in another post) and all because he was riding on a freakin moped. I don't think people truly realize the impact Monta makes and I expect the Warriors to play consistently above average basketball once Monta comes back.

Final Grade: F+

So he's not the sole reason for the Warrior's suckieness, but he wasted this year. The only positive is it looks like by next season he'll be able to get back to where he was. The question now is can he get better than before? If the Warriors are going to return to relevency than Monta will have to become a superstar.

7) Signing Anthony Morrow

Worth a gamble after what he did in summer league.

GRADE: C... just because his chances to make the final roster are slim.

Mid-Season Grade: A

Another Mully gem. He has a good stroke and fights hard for rebounds on both ends of the floor. Needs to work on his offensive game a bit and defense but for a minimum deal you can't find better value.

Final Grade: A+

What can you say. This guy is legit and if the Warriors want to become a serious Championship threat he should be in their plans. All championship teams, have a shooter who can stretch the floor and we've found ours. As he got more minutes he showed more to his game, taking it strong to the rack, and decent play making abilities to go along with his + rebounding for a SF/SG. He's J-Rich minus the ups, but with a better shot. He needs to be signed long-term and the Dubs would probably be wise to lock him up for 3 million per like Buike.

8) Re-signing Biedrins 6yrs/63 million

Another young player locked up for market value. After years of suffering with Dampier and Foyle dropping passes... watching Andris play has been a joy to watch. He has soft hands, great feet, and a knack for scoring underneath. On the defensive side he is a very good rebounder and changes shots... if only the refs gave him some respect instead of tagging him with BS fouls. He's still very young at 22 and we haven't even see him come close to realizing his potential until Nelson leaves or commits to playing him for 30 minutes and running a few plays for him. Before we got Harrington and Jackson.. Biedrins was developing a solid low post game. He's one of best young bigs and he already has 4 years of NBA experience and is a proven double double guy in limited minutes.

GRADE: A .... he's getting paid less than Bogut. 'Nuff said.

Mid-Season Grade: A... 14 pts/12rebs/1.6blk/56% FG in all 41 games. Andrew Bogut... 12 pts/10rebs/1blk/58% FG has missed 9 games and counting. So the Dubs win on the value scale. His FG% has dropped but he has been getting more looks so that is expected. He's been the most consistent Dub and glad to have him around for the next 6 years.

Final Grade: A

I liked the signing than and still love it. Dude is only 23 years old and he's already a double-double machine. Jason Thompson the Kings ROOKIE is 23 years old and Biedrins already has 4 years in the league. People still think that dude has upside, so why not Beans? Will he ever develop a jump shot or an actual offensive game? Probably not, but with the emergence of Anthony Randolph he won't have to fill that role. We'd just need Biedrins to keep playing solid defense and gobbling up rebounds. Anything else on offense would just be icing on the cake. He'll never be a superstar, but he can be an All*Star.

OVERALL GRADE:

Mid-Season Grade of Off-Season moves: B... The signings of everyone but Maggette have proved to be great values and solid management decisions. They dropped from a B+ to a B because of the wasted money of Maggette and the value of his contract, for being crazy enough to offer GA max money, Nelson and Williams hating each other, and a stupid moped incident.

So what can we gain from looking back? For the most part the Warriors did the right things during the off-season as far as moves go. The problems with the losing have stemmed from a Warriors injury and moves/decisions that have occured since than sending our once proud and up-coming franchise to lottery bound. With the off-season moves the Warriors have set themselves up with a nice young core of rotation players but huge deals to Maggs, SJax, and possibly Crawford are going to lead to status quo for the foreseeable future. If this teams is going to go anywehere it will have to be through the improvements of the young core and that's what makes this season so frustrating as Don Nelson isn't the right coach IMO to raise young, confident NBA players.

Final Grade: B

The Warriors off-season was either boom or bust. They hit home runs with Buike, Morrow, Turiaf, and Biedrins but busted by signing Maggs and offering Brand and Arenas huge deals. The BD deal and Ellis signings are a neutral signings as the Dubs have Ellis on contract for 5 more seasons. Yes, he threw away this past season, but the Warriors could never have planned for that. With the shrewd contracts they gave to Buike, Morrow, Turiaf, and Biedrins the Warriors have locked up NBA rotation players to below market value deals. With the play of the roster this season the Dubs have proven to be a deep team filled with quality NBA players, but because of deals given to Maggs and later Sjax, the Warriors will have to rely on their youth to improve the team.

Ways to get an "A" for the '09 Off-Season:

1) Get rid of Maggette and/or Crawford

2) Find a Superstar - Have lottery pick, Buike, Morrow, Wright, Belinelli, Maggs, and Crawford as trade chips.

3) Find a PG - Someone to challenge Monta or a vet to tutor him.

A short list and possibly 3 impossible tasks, but if the Dubs can accomplish even one of these off-season moves they'd get an instant "A" in my book. So Warrior fans it's that time of the year again where we watch everyone else play and long to be a part of that world again. It's a long off-season and sadly, we're used to it.

Hollinger Most Similar....

FLAxwless — Tue, 27 Jan 2009 09:10:23 -0000

Hollinger Most Similar….

Just thought this would be a fun quick read. I was looking at Warrior stats at ESPN, checking out PERs and what not and started reading the Hollinger player profiles and thought it would be a fun quick read to see who each player is most similar like at the age. I apologize if this has been done before.

Starting 5

Monta Ellis = Tony Parker

Jamal Crawford = Mitch Richmond

Stephen Jackson = Steve Smith

Anthony Randolph = N/A

Andris Biedrins = Eddy Curry

6th man

Corey Maggette = Paul Pierce

Bench

Kelenna Azubuike = Dion Glover

Ronny Turiaf = Theo Ratliff

Marcus Williams = Kenyon Dooling

CJ Watson = N/A

Marco Belinelli = N/A

Jamareo Davidson = N/A

Rob Kurz = N/A

Anthony Morrow = N/A
Brandan Wright = N/A

Monta Magic - A look at numbers

FLAxwless — Fri, 23 Jan 2009 22:58:42 -0000

As Warrior fans we were heart broken and angry ever since we learned of Monta's injury that would ultimately cost him half the NBA season. We’ve seen the team go from 48 wins to being on pace for something in the 20s.

So how big of a role does Monta play in all of this? Will he truly make an impact? If he does what should we expect from the Warriors franchise player? Those are the questions many of us have so I’ll attempt to answer them.

First question is statistically how is this team doing compared to last seasons team?

STAT: current (last season)

Scoring margin: -4.9 (+2.2)

PPG: 107.4 (111.0)

Fastbreak: 17.1 (22.5)

Points in Paint: 43.9 (47.6)

eFG%: 49.1% (51.1%)

3 PT (m/a): 6.5/18.2 (9.3/26.6)

FT (m/a): 22.8/29.8 (18.8/24.9)

AST: 20.6 (22.4)

BLK: 6.5 (4.7)

STL: 8.0 (9.1)

TO: 14.6 (13.0)

REBD: 29.9 (30.4)

REBO: 12.5 (12.7)

Possession/Game: 102.3 (102.4)

Offensive Efficiency: 1.049 (1.084)

Defensive Efficiency: 1.097 (1.066)

So what’s do we make of all those stats?

The 08-09 Warriors compared to the 07-08 team is performing fairly similar to the BD and Monta led squad. The 08-09 edition plays at the same pace, rebounds about the same, shoots less 3 pointers, blocks more shots, and drives it to the lane more than last season’s 48 win squad. Compared to last year it has not put as many points as past teams in the paint, fast break, or total, has fewer assists, steals, and more TOs. Also the efficiency numbers are down too. However, aside from the scoring drop all the other stats are fairly close to last seasons and many people worried about assists dropping because of losing BD but we are averaging only 2 less assist per game, but that has improved since Crawford came aboard and Nelson instituted the motion offense. So assists is not a big issue.

Bottom line is the Warriors this season stack up fairly well statistically to the 48 win team that had BD AND MONTA. It can be pretty safe to assume that Crawford/Maggette/Bench Mob has filled in reasonably well for BD/Harrington/Ellis as the main rotation players. So we can get a fairly good reading of how Monta Ellis will impact the Warriors upon his return to his former self.

1) Fast break points

Before I looked up any numbers just from my observation one of the ingredients the Warriors are missing this year is fast break points. The lack of easy points in transition really kills the Warriors. How many times have we seen botched fast breaks? I couldn’t tell you how many times we have 2 on 1 or 3 on 2s that result in a horrible shot or a TO.

People may attribute that to the fact that we don’t have BD to run the floor but I think the bigger factor is we don’t have the 1 man fast break to turn an outlet pass into a quick and easy 2. Monta makes the fast break easy to run…. just get him the damn ball (I think we all agree even Maggette can do that if he’s willing).

Here are the numbers from 82games.com and teamrankings.com

Team PPG:

Last season: 111.0

This season: 107.4

http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stats/?cat=team&pan=2052

Fastbreak points scored:

Last season: 22.5 (1st)

This season: 17.1 (3rd)

Fastbreak points allowed:

Last season: 13.9 (27th)

This season: 15.7 (30th)

82games.com

Shot Clock 0-10 seconds used:

Last season: 46.0 pts

This season: 41.7 pts

As you can see our overall points has dropped 3.6 ppg, our fast break points has dropped from 22.5 to 17.1 a whopping 5.3 pts per game less, and from 82games.com you can also see our points scored during the 1st 10 seconds of the shot clock has dropped 4.3 pts per game. Right now our point differential is -4.9 pts per game. So it seems that quick and easy fast break points are lacking.

So how does Monta fit in all of this? I couldn’t find fastbreak points per player so I used 82games 0-10 seconds as a barometer:

Monta Ellis - 58.9 eFG% (#3), 9.3 pts/game (#1)

Those were his numbers last year for 0-10 seconds and where he would rank if inserted into this years team. He would be #1 in 0-10 seconds points with 9.1/game and #3 in eFG% on those shots. Those are great but his true value shows when you look at them compared to the team now. While Crawford is #2 at 8.6 ppg his eFG% is only 49.6%!!! That’s nearly 10% less than Monta. Than you check out his FG% at #3 is nice but if you compare it to Wright and Biedrins, Monta nearly triples Wright (3.6 ppg) and almost doubles Biedrins (5.4 ppg) in output.

So we’re talking about inserting OUR FASTBREAK OFFENSE HERE! Monta scores in bulk and at such a high efficiency. So immediately expect the Warriors fast break numbers to increase and we’ll see less of those botched opportunities. Thank god.

2) FG%

Ellis connected on 53.1% of his FG while scoring 20 points per game. He’d rank behind Biedrins and Wright if you assumed he’d produce at the same clip and that is highly impressive given how many shots Monta Ellis gets. Anytime you add an efficient scorer to the team it should only help. Again, if we shoot more efficient we give up less rebounds and that should help our transition defense.

3) Rebounding

If Monta continues to rebound to last season’s average he’d rank #3 on our team behind Biedrins’ 12 and Maggs’ 6.1. Currently the team is averaging roughly the same amount of rebounds as last season so adding Monta will be a boost especially out of the PG/SG position. Getting 5 from there every night means less second chance points for the opponents and more fast break opportunities for the Dubs.

4) Assists

Last season Monta averaged 3.9 ast/game with BD dominating the ball. Even with that paltry average Monta would rank #3 behind S-Jax and Crawford this season. I don’t think it’s a stretch to assume without BD that those numbers should increase. Again Monta should only help the Warriors out and like I mentioned earlier ball movement isn’t a big deal IMO as others suggest now that we have the motion offense.

5) Steals

Right now his 1.5 stl per game from last season would rank as #1 on the Warriors just barely edging out Jackson. Another bonus to the team as more TOs means more opportunities to get out in transition.

Conclusion

Looking at the statistics Monta would shore up the Warriors' biggest deficiency and biggest difference from last years success: scoring. He’d also help the other categories that have experienced a drop off from last year such as squad such as rebs, ast, stls, and more importantly FG%. I mean just look at where Monta would rank on our team if he produced to his season averages from last season:

FG% #3, PTS #1, REBS #3, AST, #3, STL #1

People often think of Monta as just a scorer because he is an ELITE offensive force but he also helps the Warriors in other categories as well. Now, this doesn’t mean the Warriors will march into the playoffs this season (I doubt with Monta they can win 30 out of the next 39 games – unless they improve rebounding and defense – not Monta’s forte) or that Monta is going to produce at the level he did last year immediately, but there is hope Warrior fans.

All signs point to Monta having a successful recovery and that should give hope to Warrior fans for a competitive team for the remainder of this season due to addition of Monta, the shift from chucking 3 pointers to driving it to the rim, and the improved bench play (one of the benefits from the injuries). Next season it wouldn’t be hard to expect the Warriors to battle for playoff contention with the current roster (as flawed as it may be) because the stats seem to show the difference between a 48 win team and a 26 win team is a little Monta Magic.