FTLOTC
Sep 05, 2008 Oct 16, 2011 19 65
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Tango on Epstein Compensation
Tom Tango asserts that a mop-up reliever would be fair compensation for acquiring Epstein from the Red Sox.
4 months ago
FTLOTC
19 comments
1 recs
Hendry vs. Epstein Drafts
by FTLOTC on Oct 16, 2011 9:56 AM EDT
on Bleed Cubbie Blue
Jim Hendry and Theo Estpein oversaw the Cubs and Red Sox amateur drafts, respectively, from 2003-2011.
The drafted players acquired by Hendry over this period combined to accumulate 11.6 WAR in the majors. The top five WAR totals were produced by Sean Marshall (6.6), Casey McGehee (3.7), Sam Fuld (2.1), Tony Campana (1.4), and Darwin Barney (1.3).
Epstein’s draft haul over his tenure with the Red Sox amassed a total of 85.9 WAR, led by Dustin Pedroia (24.5), Jonathan Papelbon (17.1), Jacoby Ellsbury (13.6), Clay Buchholz (8.9), and Justin Masterson (6.3).
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Marco Hernandez, ss, Cubs: The Cubs have added a wave of Latin American talent to the lower levels of their farm system. As a result, the organization now faces a dilemma, albeit a good one, in trying to sort out playing time for Hernandez and Gioskar Amaya with its Rookie-level Arizona club. Amaya, an 18-year-old from Venezuela, has played mostly second base, though he's also spent time at shortstop and third base, while Hernandez, an 18-year-old Dominican, has been the primary shortstop but also has played a bit at second. At the plate, they have both excelled in their U.S. debuts. Amaya is hitting .390/.427/.476, showing advanced baseball instincts for his age. Hernandez is the better athlete with a more lively, projectable body (6 feet, 170 pounds) and has hit .310/.355/.410 through 24 games. Hernandez has good bat speed from the left side and shows good bat-to-ball ability, though he projects more as a doubles hitter than a power threat.
BA on Rookie-ball prospect Hernandez
Josh Vitters, 3b, Cubs: Last week was a synopsis of Vitters' struggles at the plate. He put balls in play, striking out twice, but only a lone single dropped in for a hit. His 1-for-3 effort sank Vitters' numbers to .274/.310/.435, still hovering above the Southern League average, but much more is expected of the 2007 third overall pick. Vitters' great hand-eye coordination can cause problems for him, as he makes plenty of contact, but sometimes on pitches that he was better off letting go.
8 months ago
FTLOTC
61 comments
1 recs
2015 Home-built Cubs: Pitchers
by FTLOTC on Jul 1, 2011 2:06 PM EDT
on Bleed Cubbie Blue
The challenge: Construct the Cubs 2015 pitching staff using only players currently in their system. (See yesterdays post for position players.) For simplicity’s sake, assume optimum health for all players and don’t worry about salary considerations. Feel free to use 2011 draftees, assuming they will sign, if you wish. Constructing the pitching staff seems like more of a crap shoot than selecting position players due to the high attrition rate of pitchers throughout the development process, so rather than trying to select an 11 or 12 man staff, I decided to classify pitchers into general categories:
2015 Home-built Cubs: Hitters
by FTLOTC on Jun 30, 2011 12:21 PM EDT
on Bleed Cubbie Blue
The challenge: Construct the Cubs 2015 roster using only players currently in their system. (Let’s do hitters only in this post, and pitchers in a later post to keep things straight.) For simplicity’s sake, assume optimum health for all players and don’t worry about salary considerations. Feel free to use 2011 draftees, assuming they will sign, if you wish. Basically, what home-built roster would give the Cubs the highest chance of winning the World Series?
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Cubs GM Jim Hendry called Soriano "lean" like a "greyhound," with a "very, very young body for his age." Speaking about the length of the contract, Hendry said, "Who knows if somebody is going to be as productive at 38 as they are at 30 or 31. But, like I said, there's a lot of guys in this game right now swinging the bat at a very high level in their late 30s or even early 40s."
Sad stats
by FTLOTC on Jun 27, 2011 1:31 PM EDT
on Bleed Cubbie Blue
<!--StartFragment-->
(per Fangraphs)
Team rankings
Fielding: 25/30
Base-running: 28/30
Stolen bases: 29/30 (25 SB)
Walk rate (batting): 30/30 (6.5%)
Walk rate (pitching): 30/30 (4.0 BB/9 IP)
Plate discipline (individual hitters)
Struck out 3x more than they’ve walked: Colvin, Barney, Soriano, DeWitt, Montanez, Byrd, Baker, Johnson, Campana, LeMahieu
Swung at a below average percentage of pitches outside the strike zone: Pena, Soto, Fukudome, Hill
Carlos Zambrano Division:
Hitters with a higher slugging percentage: Johnson (.617) and Soriano (.509)
Hitters with a higher on-base percentage: Johnson (.398), Fukudome (.390), and Castro (.356)
Hitters with a higher weighted runs created plus (wRC+): Nobody
Get off me!
Fun with WAR graphs
Marmol velo
by FTLOTC on Apr 30, 2011 5:39 PM EDT
on Bleed Cubbie Blue
Marmol's average fastball velocity has dropped from over 94 mph the last two years to 91.7 mph in 2011. His slider velocity has also dropped to 80.6 mph after being over 83 mph the last two years. Generally, a 2 mph decrease is considered fairly substantial. The decrease in velo doesn't seem to have affected his results, though it is something to monitor. Opposing batters are making contact on 72% of his pitches this season, up from 61% in 2010, and are whiffing only 72% as much as last season.
Cubs CF Jae-Hoon Ha has caught scouts' eyes in the Florida State League with eye-popping numbers to start the season. He is hitting .403/.406/.645 through 14 games with a pair of home runs. He has not drawn a walk yet and is only 2-for-7 on stolen base attempts, but manager Buddy Bailey is pleased with the 20-year old's aggressive approach. "He's got one gait and it's always aggressive," Bailey said. "To me, it's the perfect thing for a young player. Players learn when they're aggressive."
Matusz: Danks 2.0
by FTLOTC on Aug 20, 2010 8:23 PM EDT
on Beyond the Box Score
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Brian Matusz’s rookie season has been eerily similar to that of fellow lefty John Danks. Though Matusz, 22, is one year older than Danks was as a rookie in 2007, they’ve posted nearly identical rate stats in roughly the same amount of innings (to date for Matusz):
|
|
IP |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
HR/9 |
GB% |
SwStr% |
|
Matusz 2010 |
137 2/3 |
6.9 |
3.4 |
0.98 |
37% |
8.1% |
|
Danks 2007 |
139 |
7.1 |
3.5 |
1.81 |
35% |
7.4% |
Danks’ bloated home run rate can be attributed to a higher HR/FB rate of 13.8% compared to Matusz’s 9.0%.
Matusz has not only produced a carbon copy of Danks’ rookie season results, he’s accomplished it using a markedly similar repertoire:
Plate discipline trends
Plausible explanations?
Draft spending
Does it concern anyone else that only 5 teams have spent less than the Cubs on the draft in the last 3 years? To put things in perspective, the Cubs have paid nearly as much to not play Zambrano this year as they have to sign all their 2010 draft picks.
I think, as a scout, the worst thing a kid can have as a high school senior or even a high school junior is a beard. That's not good. You walk into a ballpark and you've never seen the kid yet, but you walk in and he's got a fully grown beard. That tells me he's mature and there's not projection there. It's all about perception. Perception is 90 percent of it. Whether it's right or wrong, if I walk into a ballpark and I see a kid with a beard and he's just OK, well I can't project anymore. The kid's fully matured. That's one thing for me, I like baby-faced guys.
I want more Pie
by FTLOTC on Feb 23, 2010 6:40 PM EST
on Bleed Cubbie Blue
Apologies if this has already been discussed recently, but I just happened to glance at Felix Pie's performance with the O's last season and was a bit surprised. In about half a season (252 PA), Pie posted 1.4 WAR. This is a higher production rate than Fukudome or Byrd achieved in 2009.
While Fukudome and Byrd hit better (each posted a RC+ of 108), Pie was still about league average at the plate (98 RC+).
Meanwhile, Pie is clearly the better defender, with a career OF UZR/150 of 10.4, while Dome and Byrd boast respective career UZR/150s of 2.7 and 4.2.
Perhaps with a bit more patience and appropriate valuation of defense, the Cubs could have had a young cost-controlled player producing at the same rate as their recent free agent signees.
Great Steve Stone quote
check out comment #64
Perfect comps
by FTLOTC on Feb 16, 2010 4:54 PM EST
on Beyond the Box Score
It appears that Bagwell and ARod were/are the exact same hitter:
Check out some other interesting comps after the break (All data from Rally's WAR database).
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Minor observations
by FTLOTC on Jul 18, 2009 10:41 AM EDT
on Bleed Cubbie Blue
There are no legitimate position player prospects at AA or AAA. The only promising starting pitchers at these levels are Jay Jackson (8.19 K/9, 3.72 BB/9, 0.60 HR/9 in 75 IP at AA) and Andrew Cashner (7.44 K/9, 3.23 BB/9, 0.16 HR/9 in 55.2 IP between high-A/AA).
Starlin Castro is not exactly mashing, but is more than holding his own at high-A (.306/.337/.405) while being young for the level. Any word on his defense at SS?
While Vitters can hit, does his horrendous plate disciple (2.4 BB%) bring back memories of failed/failing prospects like Ryan Harvey, Brian Dopirak, and Tyler Colvin to anyone else?
Chris Carpenter (low-A/high-A) is looking like his Cardinals synonym (8.13 K/9, 3.81 BB/9, 0.50 HR/9 in 81 IP).
Tony Campana (low-A/high-A), while not a high-profile prospect, is fast (44SB/9CS).
Hak-Ju Lee will be 18 through the end of the season and is off to a good start at low-A (.327/.396/.429, 11SB/3CS, 98 AB)
2009 first-round signee Brett Jackson is off to a solid start at low-A, as well (.289/.448/.400, 45AB).
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