So I recently graduated and I'll be home until June 23rd and I'm tired of missing all the LL meetups that have gone on in my absence over the last four years. That said, would anyone be interested in trying to organize something in the next few weeks? I really have no preference for a specific date but I was thinking of getting a group to go to a Felix or maybe Lee start with a bar meetup in the city before and/or after the game. Let the brainstorming begin...

DISCLAIMER: I am in no way a Red Sox fan and they are among my most hated teams, but some things must be done in the name of science.

Null Hypothesis: Yankees fans are rabid and dangerous to fans of opposing teams at home games.

Materials:

-3 Red Sox / Yankees nosebleed tickets behind home plate

-3 Red Sox hats

Summary: So my friends and I decided to g to the Sox-Yankees game last night and test just how hostile Yankee fans can be. To do so we wore Red Sox hats and put on fake Boston accents for the entirety of the game while sitting in the upper deck of a sold out stadium. We then proceeded to be as obnoxiously Bostonian as possible, making numerous and loud references to the Yankees sucking, questioning Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez's sexual orientation, referring extensively to 2004 and just generally trying to piss people off. Thankfully the game ended up providing many opportunities for comments as it ended up being a pretty exciting game as indicated by the WE chart ( thanks Frangraphs):

Among the many events in the game fueling taunting were:

-A couple brushbacks and Papelbon hitting a Yankee player who had to be held back from walking out towards the mound

-7 HRs including ones by Ortiz, one by Youk to put the Sox ahead in the 8th, one by A-Rod to tie the game in the 9th, and a walkoff following the HBP

-2 plays at the plate, one in which the Sox threw out a Yankee

-Some very poorly fielded balls on both sides

-Derek Jeter striking out as the tying run to end the 8th inning

Results: The Yankee crowd did not live up to the myth. Even with lead changes in the last innings of the game and us being as ridiculous as possible, few people would directly yell anything at us and nary a peanut let alone a punch was thrown our way. Even after the game leaving the stadium and taking the subway when we yelled "Go Sox!" in between the "Boston Sucks!" chants, no one said or did anything directly beyond a brief comment or two. Thus, based on a sample size of n = ~300 Yankee fans within earshot, we calculate a p-value of 0.02 and reject the null hypothesis. It's worth noting we tried the opposite thing in Fenway a couple of years ago with decidedly more hostile results.

Recommendation: Stick to Dodgers-Giants.

Pics after the jump.

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So thanks to The Book Blog I recently discovered this neat site that lets you superimpose BIP data from one player/pitcher/park onto another. Just for fun I superimposed all of Beltre's SAFECO balls in play onto Fenway to check out the results, which, unless the data is wrong, is somewhat surprising:

According to this chart, Belre would have had approxmately  5 doubles and 1 flyout turn into home runs in Fenway last year, which is much less than what I expected. Now obviously this doesn't take into consideration weather, how a batter changes, his approach, how the Green Monster effects balls, etc., etc. But I still found it interesting.

P.S. - The same analysis on Washburn says that about 10 of his doubles and 5 of his flyouts at SAFECO would've been home runs in Fenway. Nice!

So while bored today, not being clever enough to do my own analysis, I created sort of a sabermetric almanac, or whatever you'd like to call it, on a Word document and decided to post it here for everyone's perusal. Either way it covers a whole host of concepts through links to various articles I've found enjoyable and instructive over the years on Tom Tango's blog, Fangraphs, The Hardball Times, etc. I've organized it thematically, and I'll be the first to admit that its not exhaustive by any means and that perhaps it should be structured differently, or different articles should be under different headings, etc. Some of the articles are redundant in areas but they are each unique. Either way I think it's a good primer for the uninitiated and a good set of references and maybe some new information for everyone else. Enjoy:

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So I was handed a copy of the New York Times today (yes I hate trees), and flipping to the sports section the top article on its front page was entitled "A New Generation of Statistics Redefines Baseball". It's basically all about WAR and how its gaining an increasingly large following in both the media and fanbase. It's also got a Dave Cameron quote and basically is one of the better or at least most heartening articles you'll read in a (very) mainstream newspaper al year. I found the article under a different name online and I suggest you take a look. Some notable awesomeness:

A WAR of 10 does not have resonance as a hallowed number in a sport with so many others. But it will be a goal for Greinke next season, whether or not the Royals contend.

“I think, whether the traditional baseball community wants to acknowledge it or not, the fan base and the media have finally embraced and immersed themselves in advanced statistics,” Bannister said. “I think you’re going to see more and more people brought up with that influence. I really just think that the future of the game is in the numbers.”

Remember when Felix kicked ass in 2005 and we were all disappointed that he failed to win the Cy Young award the next year and seemed to be only above average following that? I think a lot of time people lose track of the fact that Felix is at about the age where a lot of solid pitching prospects have just entered the majors and how kickass he's really been over his entire career, not just this year.  Even the elite prospects and young pitchers like Liriano, Price, Hamels, Lincecum, you name it, aren't really even close to how much Felix has done at such a young age. Here's a list of historical WAR totals through age 23. I had to use the totals at Baseball Projection for those players who played before 2002, and though I'm not sure how the calculation differs methodologically from Fangraphs, Tango uses the historical list too and I think its accurate enough for the point to get across.

This list isn't all-encompassing, but what you'll see is players' career WAR through age 23 with their career rank and total for WAR in parentheses:

Kid Nichols: 39.2 (102.3 - 6th)

Bob Feller: 35.6 (66.0 - 31st)

Bert Blyleven: 29.3 (90.1 - 13th)

Dwight Gooden: 28.6 (47.6 - 80th)

Walter Johnson: 25.1 (127.7 - 3rd)

Felix Hernandez: 21.0

Fernando Valenzuela: 18.2 (38.2 - 144th)

Tom Seaver: 13.9 (105.3 - 4th)

Roger Clemens: 11.9 (128.4 - 2nd)

Pedro Martinez: 10.2 (75.1 - 23rd)

Greg Maddux: 9.8 (96.8 - 8th)

Tim Lincecum: 3.2

Bob Gibson: 1.8 (85.6 - 15th)

Cy Young: 1.7 (146.0 - 1st)

Randy Johnson: 0 (91.8 - 12th)

Pete Alexander: 0 (104.9 - 5th)

Lefty Grove: 0 (98.3 - 7th)

Phil Niekro: 0 (96.8 - 9th)

Curt Schilling: -0.1 (69.7 - 28th)

Gaylord Perry: -0.7 (96.3 - 10th)

Warren Spahn: -0.9 (93.4 - 11th)

Christy Matthewson: -0.9 (87.7 - 14th)

* * *

Now its pretty clear from this list that a hot start by age 23 doesn't necessarily correlate much with one's career total. However the bottom line, Felix is pacing some damn impressive company so far and there's a relatively significant non-zero chance that 50 years from now he'll be remembered as one of the best to throw the ball. I don't think anyone thinks he's near to his peak yet either. Cherish it.

Side note: I had no idea Blyleven was so awesome so young. He's also the only HoF-eligible pitcher in the top 29 all-time for WAR that's not in. Sigh.

If he's convicted of the murder he's been charged with.

Angel Villalona, who received a club-record $2.1 million bonus when he was signed by the Giants in 2006, wore a bulletproof vest Monday to his hearing at a court in the city of La Romana. He pleaded innocent to the murder charge.

The 19-year-old Villalona could face up to 20 years in prison if found guilty in the Saturday night shooting death of Mario Felix de Jesus Velete. Dominican Republic's baseb…
AP - Sep 21, 9:49 pm EDT

Judge Aranibal Manzano Zapata ordered Villalona jailed for two months while authorities prepare their case in the Dominican Republic. Villalona turned himself in 12 hours after the shooting at a La Romana bar.

“This is a serious case of voluntary homicide,” public prosecutor Jose Polanco said.

Police haven’t said what the motive for the shooting was.

So it looks like Stephen Strasburg will have a fairly talented catcher to work with. From the Las Vegas Review-Journal:

Bryce Harper, the baseball phenom from Las Vegas High School, has no future in high school. An extraordinary player is ready to make an unusual move.

Harper, a 16-year-old who just completed his sophomore year, has registered at the College of Southern Nevada, where he plans to attend classes in August and play for the Coyotes next season.

 

...

With his combination of power and speed, Harper is projected to be the top pick in the major league draft when he's eligible. That should be next June.

Ron Harper said his son, who turns 17 on Oct. 16, will be draft eligible "in 2010 or 2011. ... There are a lot of rules that people don't know about."

Bryce Harper and his mother, Sheri, recently went to CSN and signed enrollment forms and his letter of intent to play baseball. Harper is aiming to earn his GED test credentials in the fall.

"He was thinking about it. He initiated it," Ron Harper said. "He said, 'Dad, why can't I take my GED and do this?' "

 

The minimum age for major league draft eligibility is 16, upon completion of high school.

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So today I went to Yankee Stadium to help unroll their giant 50-yard long flag for the home opener ceremony.

Practice and prep:

Notes from the game:

-Carl Pavano, who I had forgotten is with the Indians, received perhaps the loudest and longest round of boos I have ever heard when his name was announced, and I've been to a Sox-Yankee game in Boston and various games as Bonds pursued 755.

-After Marte came in this happened to make me incredibly happy:

So not that this hasn't been discussed before, but I decided in my spare time to quantify how important velocity is to RRS's value now that we know he'll be part of the rotation.

I know his velocity has been low this Spring, but hopefully he builds strength  over the course of the season. I don't think anyone expects 90+ mph consistently out of his fastball, but if he can dial it up when he needs to it looks like a legitimate out pitch to go with his curve. Of course this also illustrates why he's so much better as a reliever.

If only Felix's swinging strike % increased at that rate with his fastball velocity...

Fangraphs nowhas career leaderboards up, which includes win values and batted ball data  from 2002 onward, so stop reading this post and go bask in its glory.

...

If you stuck around, here's a few fun factoids:

-Of all pitchers with at least 600 IP in the last 7 years, Felix has the second lowest LD% at 17.0%, behind Derek Lowe and ahead of Tim Wakefield. He's 6th in GB% at 58.0%. On the other hand, he has the 3rd worst HR/FB... Lowe and Webb suck at that too.

-Ryan Howard has a career 34.0% HR/FB, 17% higher than the next closest guy, Cust.

-Joey Gathright's 4.44 GB/FB over the last 7 years is over 30% higher than the next closest guy, Luic Castillo. He also has the highest infield hit %, with Hunter Pence and Ichiro trailing by a bit.

-Roy Halladay rules.

Based on Pitch f/x from Felix's game today:

Obviously this is his first start of the WBC so its not that helpful though its probably more helpful than a Spring start since he's almost certainly pitching to win more than he would in ST. Looks like the difference between his fastball and offspeed suff is the same as ever in any case... only 1 ball in play that wasn't a grounder though, admittedly against Italy (which conversely makes the fastball's lack of swinging strikes look even worse).

(I'm guessing it got his 2-seamer and changeup mixed up as splitters and sinkers but I don't know for sure. 'Splitter' averaged 88.25 mph, 7.75 brk, 10 pfx while 'Sinker' was 85.6, 11.4, 7.6, and 'Changeup' was 87, 8.5, 4.5.).

...Yeah I'm bored waiting for the season to start.

Let it be known that this Saturday the 25th will be my 21st birthday.* Among other things this means a) Not having to move to like 4 different places with the post-LL/USSM meet group and b) hahahaha Brett.

Anyway, if you need physics advice you go to Stephen Hawking, if you need mining advice you go to anywhere but Utah, and if you need alcohol advice there is of course nowhere to go but Lookout Landing.

Lookout Landing isn’t one of those geeky stathead alcohol communities with their fancy stats like Alcohol By Volume, Puke Probability Added, and tBAC*. Its knowledge comes from good old fashioned personal scouting the way God intended. Everyone knows you can’t reduce a good beer to its stats—it takes an experienced taste evaluator to properly choose which drink to add to their team. With that in mind, I submit a request for refreshment recommendations (beer, liquor, or mixed) from the Lookout Landing community. Bear in mind I will be in New York City and thus unable to enjoy our local microbrews.

Pictures or text are welcome.

I would say I’d try everything suggested but I think the first 10 posts would kill me.

*Random thought that should not be misconstrued as politics: Pro-life bartenders should serve people 20 years, 3 months old

I don't know about everyone here, but I'm a visual guy and it helps me to understand data when its organized as more than just numbers. With that in mind, I undertook a fairly unscientific study of the 30 drafts between 1978 and 2007. The results are as follows:

A few quick notes:

-Naturally there might be some debate over who was the best player (this is all in retrospect by the way), an example being, say, Troy Glaus vs J.D. Drew of Pat Burrell vs Mark Mulder. Overall I think its fairly consistent and if someone injured themselves or didn't play for some reason I counted it against them (otherwise Hamilton vs Beckett would be a lot murkier). I didn't use a specific formula to determine the best careers, but I don't think there would be any major argument with the decisions as a whole.

-We all know the problems with All-Star balloting, but, whatever, I think its interesting to see.

-I didn't include 2008 because its too quick to judge, and obviously some of the more recent drafts will develop all-stars int he future and perhaps change who's the best player to come out of them.

With that, a couple quick conclusions/inferences:

-1st overall pick has definitely been better than 2nd, though not by a huge margin. It really drops off after that. Obviously a larger sample size, and maybe more draft poitions, would be better.

-Would anyone else have guessed that a 1st or 2nd overall pick over the last 30 years would have a 40% chance of being an All-Star? I would've guessed much lower.

-Given these are all very talented people and some just get unlucky, I'd expect the "Did not play in MLB" numbers to even out over the first three rounds with a large enough sample size.

-I'd guess there'll be less All-Stars from the top three positions as time goes on as competition for all-star spots increases from a) international signings and b) better talent evaluation / scouting turning out more all-stars from later picks.

Discuss?