Over the past 20 years, GM Jerry has settled into a pattern of where he places "value" on the various rounds.  He's been amazingly consistent.

[Disclaimer:  I am not advocating agreement.  In fact, I'm on the record as being vehemently opposed in many circumstances.  However, as Rafael has duly noted in his draft previews, there are certain profiles that make up the "rules" by which all Cowboys fans should come to expect]

Round 1:  Skill Players - 22 Picks

Now this includes almost all EDGE players.  This includes QB, RB, WR, TE, CB, S, DE, OLB.  TE and Safety are debatable, but are included for analytical purposes.  LT is also included in most definitions of Skill/Edge players, but as I've stated in many posts (ad nauseum), GM Jerry has NEVER taken ANY OL in the 1st Round.

However, GM Jerry has modified his "value chart" somewhat over the years.  WR is the most notable.  But that's not to say that WR is not "drafted" in the 1st.  Jerry has stated that when he trades a 1st Round pick for a WR, he considers that player his 1st Round pick.  Given that standard, you have to include the 2 traded for Joey Galloway and 1 for Roy Williams as WR picks, though no player was selected.

There have been 22 draft picks.  As stated above, that includes 3 picks for Joey Galloway andRoy Williams.  A full 18 have been spent on Edge players.  Only Russell Maryland, Kelvin Pritchett, and Robert Jones are exceptions.  However, given the "Planet Theory", you could also include DT in the profile, but I didn't.

Another well known trend is that GM Jerry loves to trade down (and often out) of the 1st Round.  Seven (7) times we have not selected anyone in the 1st.  That's 35% of all GM Jerry drafts!  The number rises to an obscene level when picking lower than 20.  A cursory guestimate puts it between 2/3 and 3/4 of the time. 

Edge Trend Rating:  86% (95% incl Planet Theory DTs)

Round 2:  Need - 27 Picks

This round is a little more difficult to label.  At first, I was going to label this the Offensive Lineman round.  After all, since none are taken in the 1st Round (yeah, yeah, I'll stop) it must be, right?  Well, it has been the most prominent (30%), but further analysis saw another trend.

In the Early (JJ) years (89-93), we needed a lot of players.  Jerry (and Jimmy) traded down for many more picks in later rounds, and used the ones they kept for needed positions not met in Round 1.  Jimmy needed speed on Defense and Dixon Edwards, and Darren Smith fit the bill.  They also needed "playmakers" on Offense and Alexander Wright, Jimmy Smith, and Kevin Williams were all attempts at WR.

In the Backup Years (94-99), GM Jerry stated that no one could crack this roster, so he wanted solid backups. 
Fully 1/2 were OL, and players like Sherman Williams and Kendall Wadkins were obvious backups.  But something else started to show.  Quite a few were also replacing players that were being lost in FA or to retirement.  Larry Allen (replacing Gogan), Godfrey (Norton), Pittman (Haley), Flo (Tuinei), and Page (Williams) all were targeted to open starting positions.

The Lost Years (00-02), were even more desperate attempts to fill the post Triplet years.  Quincy Carter and Antonio Bryant are obvious, but the great search for DBs (00-01) and OL continued right up through the early Parcell years.

The ParcellYears (03-06) saw a true trend.  Go for BPA, usually in a need position, at a non-premier (i.e., not a QB or DE/OLB) position.  Julius Jones, Kevin Burnett, and Fasano all fit the bill, as did Rogers and Al Johnson.

Lately, the trend from Parcells continues, though with Martellus Bennett the only pick, it may seem that Trader Jerry is back to getting more quantity over the (IMO much needed) quality as in the Jimmy era.

Need Trend Rating:  None

Round 3:  Sleepers - 26 Picks

What is most evident is that the third round is chock-full of players that either slid down due to size/injuries/character issues (Godfrey Myles, Jimmie Jones, Kenny Wheaton, Coakley/Nguyen, Derrick Ross, Willie Blade, etc.) or are from small schools (Jason Williams, Robert Brewster, Jason Hatcher, Stepfret & Charlie Williams, Clayton Holmes, and most notably Erik Williams).  In fact, nearly a third (31%) came from non-Division I schools.

Another trend of the 3rd round is Offensive Lineman, especially Centers.  Now the fact that the 3rd is the most common start of the run on Centers, it's not that surprising.  Nearly 40% of the picks were on the big uglies.

But the amazing number of "fliers", as defined by the draftniks is amazing.  By my count, 20 of the 26 picks would be or were considered "reaches".  Only Jason Witten and most of the O-Lineman could be considered "value" picks.

Who? Trend Rating:  77% (31% Small School)

Round 4:  The Fallen - 33 Picks (30 for trend)

This is GM Jerry's favorite round.  It used to be the start of the 2nd Day (and will now kinda return as the 3rd Day) and was where all the War Rooms got a chance reset their boards.  It was a mad dash to grab all those players that had somehow slid past the first 3 rounds and pick up some real value.

And for all his faults, the list of hits in this rounds is quite amazing. 

• Tony Tolbert
• Ron Stone
• Brady James
• Chris Canty
• Marion Barber
• Tashard Choice

That's a great foreboding for our recent picks Victor Butler, Brandon Williams and QB McGee.  But the list also includes a boatload of highly touted picks (at the time) that were clear busts.  "Swervin" Curvin Richards, Derrick Lassic, Willie Jackson, Eric Bjornson, Kareem Larrimore, Alundis Brice, Michael Myers, Markus Steele, Skyler Green and Bruce Thornton all carried high expectations, but ultimately flamed.  Several others could be classified as near-misses (Peppi Zellner, Isaiah Stanback).

Boom Trend Rating:  20% (While low, the trend since BP arrived is a quite impressive 63%)

Rounds 5 (21 Picks) & 6 (23 Picks) - The Lost Rounds

This was easy to name.  Only one pick in each round (Scandrick in Round 5, Mario Edwards in Round 6) could be considered hits.  But even if you include Darrin Hambrick, Pat Watkins, Deon Anderson, John Phillips and David Buehler, the hit rate is pathetic.  Nick Folk did not make my "hit" list, so add one to your math if you'd like.

I did not include last year's picks in the trend rating. 

Hit Trend Rating:  5% (16% incl Marginal guys listed above with 3 incomplete(s) in last year's draft)

 Round 7 - Lucky (27 Picks)

At first I was going to label it "Special Teams", as this was the trend in the early years.  But the fact that so many fantastic gems have been scored, I decided to call it what it is...pure, unadulterated, dumb luck.  The "Hit" list is amazing.

• Leon Lett
• Brock Marion
• Patrick Crayton
• Jacques Reeves 
• Jay Ratliff 

Many, including Omar Stoutmire, Nathan Jones, and Alan Ball (among others) could be considered solid contributors, thus "hits" considering the low investment.  For the trend rating, I included only the starters.

Hit Trend Rating:  19% (25% incl solid contributors)

Conclusions 

1. If you're like me, hoping for your pet cat WR or OL in the 1st, you're most likely to be very disappointed.  In fact, we're most likely to hear "In the 27th spot, Dallas has made a trade".
2. Everyone is going to say "WHO?" in Round 3.
3. Round 4 should bring some talent.
4. Why even bother drafting in Rounds 5 & 6?  It's better to use them as trade bait to move up in the first four rounds or grab a few more 7s.

I'm hesitant to write this.  Last time I started to crow this loudly was '96 on Raul & Raf's old 'TheBoys.com' (sorry to open old wounds, but I still miss the community).

How many are ready to admit that this team has answered every single question?  I know...a little premature for the hardcore pessimists (Is anyone else sick of hearing about the playoff drought?) until they win in the postseason.  Some (and you know who you are...ahem, Blings & Co.) won't be satisfied until a Lombardi is held.

But only the truly hardcore naysayer can say that this team has any significant hole that can't be fixed with a strong PK is simply ignoring the reality.  Every single offseason move has been an overwhelming success.

Continue reading this post »

I'm back with another rant.  This time, it's due to yet another Mediot observation from TSX who does all the team reports.  The latest team report has finally gone from their usual ignorant reporting to the level of hyperbole.  In it, they basically state, yes, the 'Boys are talented, but they have no depth whatsoever.  This logical fallacy is called moving the bar, because they now can't point to the loss of t.o. as a valid issue.

However, what’s also true is that the Cowboys are an injury or two away from falling to also-ran status.

...{snip}

The problem is not just with once (sic) unit or position. It’s across the board.

 The article (I'm being kind...it's barely tabloid journalism) concluded that even an injury to Spencer or Colombo will derail this season and that the 'Boys have no answer at any position.  To which I have to raise the BS flag.  Let's take a look:

Offense:

First, let's take a look at where there are holes. 

- QB?  Nope, Kitna will do fine for a short time.  No team can overcome the loss of their starter.  So that's a non-issue.

- RB?  Nope.  We lost 2 last year and ran effectively against 4 of the top 5 defenses.

- TE?  Nope.  'Tellus and Phillips look more than adequate, though losing Witten would hurt.

So that brings us to OL & WR...positions we've debated to death.  But as musiccitynorm (Norm!) has so ably shown us in his fanposts, Free has matured right on schedule.  Further, Bigg has not only played LT, he did pretty well, making the Pro Bowl as an alternate in '06.  Last year showed a pretty large gap at Guard, but I proffer that both Holland and Duke Preston represent huge upgrades to the human turnstile (Proctor) we had last year and Duke is a very good Center.  Both have started in this league and have performed well.

At WR, well...let me just ask the question.  Is Austin and Hurd (or even Ogletree) really that much of a downgrade from Crayton?  If Roy Williams goes down, there will be a drop-off.  But is it so severe that our season is ruined?  I don't think so.  Further, there are still quite a few FAs available and some #1's that can be had at the trade deadline for a price.  In summary, the position may not be deep, but it's hardly season-killing if one or more goes down.

Defense:

Here is where I just don't get the author.  He makes the argument that because our 2nd and 3rd teams didn't play as well as Oak & SF scrubs, that they all suck.  This is the worst kind of logical assumption.  Not to belabor the point, but a second-half performance in preseason means about as much as an elevator in an outhouse.  But let's take a look:

- D-Line:  Sure, we all know that backup NT is an issue.  Siavii may be adequate to rest Ratliff, but would represent a severe downgrade if needed for the rest of the season.  Thank goodness, he's not the (whole) answer.  Both Spears and Olshansky can and have played the position.  Yes, it would mean switching up the line, but that's exactly how Ratliff became our Pro Bowl NT after a season ending injury to Jason Ferguson.  The rest of the DLine is quite deep.  Bowen and Hatcher have both proven to be more than adequate backups.  This is a red herring.

- LB:  Here, you can make the case where depth is a problem.  But is it so severe that we dump the season if we get one injury, even to Ware?  I think not.  While Victor Butler is only a rookie, he has shown improvement.  Further, Bobby Carpenter is a capable replacement at both ILB and OLB.  Particularly, if a long-term injury to one of our OLBs occurs, and Butler proves he's not ready, then Bobby will man the position.  He plays great in space and has a knack for blitzing.  While not ideal, it is an option.

- CB:  Here, too, you can make a case for lack of depth.  When you can't play nickel because you ran out of DBs, it's a problem.  Or is it?  We are 4 deep at CB.  That's about as good as there is in the NFL.  At Safety, we go 4 deep as well, however one (rookie Hamlin) is sidelined for the first month, and the other (Ball) is also the 4th guy at CB.  The saying is you can never have enough DBs, but we'll at least have 8 or 9 on the roster and 7 can start effectively.  Just because we ran out in the preseason, doesn't mean we will come regular season.

Meaning?:

The only thing I can conclude is that the MSM is trying to justify their prognostications for why the 'Boys will finish 3rd in the NFC East and miss the playoffs, especially given the problems and poor performances by their favorites, the Giants and Eagles.  It's always, 'Yes the Cowboys have enough talent, but...(insert excuse here).'  December collapse (logical fallacy), Romo can't win the big one (same), Wade can win in the postseason (same)...see the drift?  They know that their argument is flawed, so now they have to justify their "expert" opinion.

What's plain fact is that every single NFL team has the same problem.  The NFL has purposely made it so.  The changes to the PUP rule, IR, and roster limits were to prevent any team from "stashing" talent.  The salary cap made sure that your backups are either rookies or veteran minimum JAGs.

The last thing I'll say is that the depth problem is not completely without merit.  But it's not as if we can't address the problem after September 5th (final cut).  There just happens to be a bevvy of talent available at nearly every position of need that we have, especially DB & WR. 

I wanted to title it, The Good, Bad, & Ugly, but decided to take a different slant.  As most of you have come to know, I'm an optimist.  I actually believe our coaches at their word and have the audacity to think that they actually know what they're doing.

But I'm not blinded by some myopic Utopian vision.  There are problems with this team.  But so is the state of every other team in the NFL.  The salary cap and everything that has been done in the name of "parity" has assured this outcome.  But I can't escape the fact that without it, we'd be Baseball.  Sorry, I like the fact that not just the powerhouses can win.  Look at Baseball, Soccer, and F1.  The Yankees, Man U's, and Ferrarri's of the world will always be good and the rest will try to compete every now and then.

So in light of the realities, I've chosen a few of our (perceived) weaknesses and take an honest look at the answers.

1.  No answer for t.o.'s production:  No matter what you think of the personality, there's no denying his production.  Somehow, some way, the "explosiveness" of the record setting Offense has to be replaced.  This is the main theme of all preseason rags.

While this argument is not without merit, let me just add that the records broken were from the Danny White era, not Staubach, not Aikman.  Stats are great (for fantasy football), but Championships are won by great teams.  Sure, there's the exceptions like Offensive juggernauts Washington, SF, and StL and the Defense-only Bucs, Ravens, Giants and Steelers.  But these years were also real exceptions to the norm.  In each case, they played teams that were "lucky" to be there.  Most times, it takes good, balanced teams that "came together".

But back to the point.  How can this team be an Offensive Juggernaut?

• 12 or 'Heavy' formations- This was BP's vision.  A team that could sustain long drives and win close games.  He missed on Fasano.  We hit on Marty B.  The 2-TE offensive scheme is nearly impossible to stop, if you have the guns.  Stop the run?  Okay, take this (Roy Williams, Crayton, Witten, 'Tellus, and Felix).  Bring in your dime?  How 'bout 2 tons of fun coming at you with 7 of the biggest, baddest dudes against your front 5 or 6!
• Roy Williams - Say what you want, but the stats are in his favor.  Yes, he was ignored and injured last year.  Yes, he's been dinged nearly every year.  But not seriously.  And the fact is that he's a great catcher of the football.  He competes and wins most 1-on-1 battles.  
• Ball Control- Can this team really do what it did for a half against the AFC's #1 seed?  Drives like that take me back to the '90s.  Sure, we may have a few hiccups and only be ahead 14-10 in a bunch of games.  But the 2nd half is going to be pure hell for a defense that has been on the field TWICE as long.  This type of plan is the BP blueprint to Championships. 

2.  Can Romo/Wade win in December/January?  I should say the team, but it comes down to these guys when any debate comes up.  The Mediots say "Yeah, well, I'll believe it when I see it".  Romo comes up short and Wade gets out-coached.

Now most of you weren't around for the 60's version.  Hell, I was child with a Cowboys jersey cheering because my Grandad did.  But I grew up every Thanksgiving going to the games.  I remember them being "Next Year's Champions".  And then I grew up with the winning-est franchise in history.  No team will ever duplicate 20 years + straight being in the playoffs and nearly 30 years with a winning record.

But I also remember vividly Danny White and the early 80's.  3 straight NFC Championship losses (I feel Phithy's pain...albeit with a little Shadenfreude).

What is Romo & Co.?  I truly don't know.  That terd they laid in Philthy was inexcusable.  But I also see a case of bad luck that befell those late 60's, early 70's teams.  Here's why this version will overcome:

• Been there, done that:  They have experience.  They know what it's like to underachieve.  They're hungry.   Those 80's teams were facing all time greats in the 9ers, Bears, Skins, Giants, and even the Rams (with Dickerson).  No current team comes close.
• Defense:  Yeah, I know some question the truism that "Defense Wins Championships".  But no team has ever won without a very good one.  We now have a good to great one. 
• Variety:  The best way to overcome obstacles is to be able to win in a number of ways.  Quick strike, ball control, whatever.  The best coaches can win with different styles.  Wade has proven over 4 franchises that he can win in different ways.  Combined with the overwhelming versatility of our Offense and you've got a team that can compete with anyone.
• Health:  Above all else, this team needs health.  We saw what happens when key injuries occur.  Do you really think the Steelers are playing  in the Super Bowl if Brady is healthy?  We just really got killed at key positions.  No team...NONE, can overcome so many losses.

3.  Special Teams/Penalties/Discipline:  I wanted to go with Defense, but it came up short in the mediot attention.  Run Defense and Safety issues were a big cause of problems last year.  But I think most agree that the problems have been addressed. 

So that leaves the "intangibles".  We know the Special Teams were a problem.  Everyone agrees that penalties are killers.  And to date, neither has shown signs of being solved.   Some say it comes down to discipline, but BP and Wade have both taken special attention to each.  Neither has been able to solve it, yet.

But there are signs that the problems are being solved:

• DeCamillis- I trust Coach Avezano on this one.  He says he's great.  Also, his history is impeccable.  He'll get this resolved.
• Unit not set.  The unit that will be on the field in Tampa has yet to play together.  The teams have been mixed and matched to give everyone a chance.  There's still time to shine.
• Best Specialist in the League.  OK, we don't have a punt returner.  But our KO, FG, and Punters are as good as it gets.
• Draft.  This year, we really focused on players that are ST studs.  With the extra attention, these guys should be a dramatic upgrade.  Jury's still out, but I'm still very optimistic (surprise, huh?).

4.  Lastly, Depth:  Unfortunately, I've exceeded my time.  But let me just say that Every team is in the same boat and at least we have viable answers to every weakness.  Don't forget, we have coaches and a GM that are willing to do anything possible to fill the gaps.  Whether everything can be fixed to everyone's satisfaction, is a whole 'nuther discussion.

The Beautiful?  All I can say is that is the most amazing Stadium since the Real Colosseum as attested by Raf.

The Mediot reactions and knee-jerk teenage blog posts...(Do any of you ever read the DMN entries?  Wow!) ...could have been written back in April.  "First stringers...well, let's see in December"; "Depth sucks"; "Rookies look like rookies".  But here at BTB, we all hit on what to look for (Too many great posts to list, but here was mine.  Raf and Grizz had great primers)

So far, the 'Boys Training Camp has to be seen as nothing but a complete change, top to bottom. 

Coaching: The changes from Son of Bum are striking.  No, he's not become a little Napoleon, but he seems a lot more disciplined.  "Accountability" has been the predominant word heard from the players...and they like it.  He is in control, his way.  Owner Jones gave him his rope, and Wade made moves that it is no longer a question THIS is Wade's team.  Gone are the "leaders" and "stars".  In are FOW (Friends of Wade).

Defensively, we now have the Phillips 3-4 with the inventor driving the bus.  And if DMNs "Talent Expert" and resident ABC (Anyone But the Cowboys) analyst and every other shallow reporter...<redundant?>...is correct in that Defense Wins Championships, then it is reasonable that all but one player change occurred on Defense.  It's HIS players, HIS scheme, HIS gameplan, HIS calls in the game.

Offensively, Jason Garrett (Redball or RHG) is in the exact same boat.   The entire perception crap is just that...crap.  He's smart, talented, and has HIS team.  And he only made one change.  Okay, two if you count Kitna, and I do consider that an important contingency plan.  If you are in a make-or-break moment, you go to war with who you trust.  mmm...maybe there is a reason t.o. is gone?  The 2-TE formation and Felix the Cat emphasis will change the look and feel of this offense.  Ball-control will be the buzzword mid-season.

Offense:

The 2-TE formation and Felix the Cat emphasis will change the look and feel of this offense.  "Ball-control" will be the buzzword by mid-season.

 The Mediots are going to be incessantly comparing Roy to t.o. and saying we lost our "explosiveness".  And our stats will most likely be closer to the 90's style than the '07 Monte Python (Flying Circus) version. 

But is that a bad thing?  So we won't be running up and down like a track meet.  This isn't fantasy football.

Much more running means that we play to the strength of this team.  Best formation is 2 TE.  Our OLine is built for smashmouth football.  We have the best trio of RBs in the league.  Gee, I'll take me some of that!  But that also means fewer drives and better clock management.  If you judge our team based on fantasy stats, I'd avoid most Cowboys, unless you like consistently average points.

Defense: 

Other than ST, there was no more obvious change than the D.  Yet everyone (except BTB) seems to miss this point.  This Defense has 6 new starters, if you use BPs formula of 13-14 starters.  Nearly half on a unit that was considered pretty good last year.  But that's not the whole story.

The Secondary is completely changed.  Injuries ravaged this unit from TC to the last game.  This year, we've gotten younger, better, faster, and have a whole new scheme.  We were a Tampa-2 zone nearly all year.  This year it's man-up!  Will they give up more big plays?  Of course.  But the all-out aggressive nature of the Phillips 3-4 will be in it's glory.  Expect a ton of plays by this group...they'll have nothing but opportunity after opportunity.

The LB corps is the heart of the 3-4.  And we have 3 new starters.  And nothing but rookies for backups.  But let me ask you?  How many games were missed last year?  ...<insert Jeopardy theme>...  How 'bout not 1 missed play?  And do you consider Wade an idiot? 

Lastly the D-Line is really, really deep and talented.  You can gripe all you want about backup NT, but the argument is inane.  No other 3-4 has a decent backup either.  What people really believe when making that argument is that theyknowbetterandRatliffistoosmallandshouldbeaDEeventhoughhesayshewantstoplaytherebutIknowbetterthanhimandthecoachand...ARGH!  The dude made the Pro Bowl and had better statistics in every single important category than any other NT in the league.  He also doesn't miss a game.  There's plenty of opportunity on the nickel to rest him.  They just choose not to.  And why wouldn't you want your best players in there.  Wade had his pick of FAs and chose...none.

Special Teams:  

If you were completely ignorant (or a Mediot) you would think our draft was for no other reason.  And that is not without merit.  Two draft picks were solely to shore up glaring weaknesses.  Both coverage units were abysmal. But most of all, we have a new coach.  Add in the much younger, hungrier, faster talent and practice emphasis and this could easily be the most improved unit.  If they could really be special...well, "Isn't that special" in your best Dana Carvey may be the new battle cry.

Now, what is REALLY the difference?  First and foremost it's the return to health of some very important players and the maturing of our youngsters.  That, more than anything else is responsible for the transformation. 

• The OLine is better, because Kosier's back and Flo's healthy (and quite svelt). 
• Secondary is better because T-New's healthy and Sensei is better than Roy Willy with 2 broken arms or not.
• WR is better because Williams, Austin and Hurd are healthy.
• Witten is healthy (though he was still outstanding at 80%)
• Romo is healthy so QB is better and Kitna at least has a pulse (I secretly believe that Brad was actually a zombie).
• Spencer is healthy and no longer has to give way to a whiner that was past his prime (which wasn't all that great to begin with).
•  And of course the most important injury returns are 2/3rds of Smash, Dash, and Tash.  Is there any doubt that Felix alone makes this a better team, overall?

Okay, so it wasn't entirely objective.  Yes, there are depth concerns.  Yes, there are a few people that need to get monkeys off their backs, especially Wade and Romo.  But as we stand right now, I can't think of a single hole we have on this team.  Training camp has made that perfectly clear.

Final Update:  It seems like there was overwhelming consensus that backup LT (and by extension the entire OL) is our biggest unresolved question.  Even Jerry said as much during the first presser.  More surprising was that WR finished dead last, behind even PR.  Hmmm...are we schizophrenic fans or what.

OT: As for available alternatives, Levi Jones keeps getting press as the best available LT.  A lot of debate on the threads points to Bigg and Free being pretty good alternatives currently on the roster.

WR: Matt Jones has stated that his agent is in contact with a few teams.  Dallas and Chicago lead the teams being talked about.  For those reflexively posting Nancy Reagans ("Just say no"), you should read this story. 

NT:  Dewayne Robertson is gone.  Looks like more and more it will be Siavii or bust (meaning Igor & Spears).

PR:  Still no clue, no potential, and no difference maker.  WHY didn't we get Hawkins?  End Update

(UPDATE:  I intentionally chose controversial players (though I DO like them) to ignite discussion, hoping for others to introduce better alternatives.  I chose the the positions from a consensus of the worry-warts, even though I don't believe those concerns are necessarily valid.  To reiterate, I believe that every answer to the problems resides on the roster (remember, I'm an optimist).  But since we won't know the answer, I was simply opining on how we could strengthen the positions.  I've added some alternative to each of the positions from Scouts.com's Best Available Free Agents, when possible)

For every position on the roster, there is a potential player or two that represent an answer.  However, there are 3 positions that need a little more (proven) talent to increase the odds.  These positions represent critical areas that could derail this season if one or more "starters" were to go down.  Another role (PR) simply has no answer on the roster, but does not represent a critical need.

Offensive Tackle:  GM Jerry spent his second pick on Brewster.  While not elite, he does represent potential.  Further, they've got two guys that are entering their make-or-break years in McQ and Free.  Don't get me wrong, I'm a Free fan and believe he'll be the answer.  But the position is just too critical and thin right now.

However, there is a bigger problem.  Flozell Adams is the oldest starter on the field, has had injury problems lately, has a penchant for killer penalties, and represents the 2nd most important position on Offense.  While the Kosier/Holland battle gets more press, the backup LT might be the most important.  If Free is not the answer, then expect another expensive FA signing in the offseason.

Solution:  Sign Levi Jones to a Colombo-like redshirt contract.  At worst, he can be placed on the PUP list early and the IR after that if the knee is not ready.  At best, we'd have our replacement for Flo.

Alternates:  Unfortunately, there are none that aren't in the same position as Levi (hurt) or are in their final seasons.  Charles Spencer, and Kwame Harris are the only young guys left.  Fabini's still out there :)

Wide Receiver:  The press and this blog have hounded this to death.  A #1 that some doubt.  A #2 or #3 that has past injury issues.  The issues are as long as my...  Owner Jones' infatuation with having 2 superstars at WR conflicts with the statements made by GM Jerry this offseason ("I love our young guys").

Solution:  Sign Matt Jones.  No matter your opinion of the drug issue, the player was a 1st round draft pick that was the best receiver on the Jaguarslast year.  He's huge (6'6", 225+), fast (4.3), and has great hands.  He's proven he can be a #1 receiver and he'll come cheap.  He would be the nearest thing to Alvin Harper we've had here since Terry Glenn.  No downside to this signing.

Alternates:  This might have the deepest talent still available.  Plaxico, DJ Hackett, Reggie Williams, and Ashlie Lelie headline.

Nose Tackle:  Depending on 2 guys to resurrect their careers after 2 years out of football is really iffy.  Unlike some here, I believe that the answer is on the roster...Olshansky AND Spears.  Think about it.  Both are bigger and stronger than Ratliff.  The "Cowboy" scheme could flop Ratliff with either before the snap and Terry would finally get his wet dream (Ratliff at DE).

Solution:  Trade.  I'd target Vince Wilfork (Pats have Ron Brace), who's in the last year of his contract, or Fred Robbins, whose currently hurt, but should recover and the Gints have a ton of depth.  The names are irrelevant.  I'd simply make a trade for proven performer that is late in his career that would be willing to back up.

Alternates:Broncos' Dewayne Robertson, Ravens' Brandon McKinney, Vikings' Kenderick Allen

Punt Returner:  Please don't argue Newman.  He's not been that good when he's been in there, much less the injury thing.  This is the only position where potential does not exist on the roster for the unit to be special.

Solution:  Pacman Jones.  Let the flogging begin.

Alternates:  Dante Hall is the best of the bunch.  Personally, I just don't think the position is all that critical.

Without data, all you are is just another person with an opinion.
--Unknown

Tim Wilson and I were debating (some would say hijacking) in Rafael's thread 7.8 Reasons why Felix should start about the value of statistics.  I thought I'd explain my position here so as not to waste everyone's time, but maybe also to inform.

What I'm NOT trying to say is that statistics are useless.  Fantasy Football lives and dies by individual and team statistics.  However, as I try to explain below, it is very important to understand what statistics can and cannot prove.  

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In my previous post on the Strength of the Draft on Defense, I made the assertion that our positions of need (Safety, NT, LB) are best met in the middle of the draft.  Rounds 4-6 seem prime to pick up a number of players that are equal or just below the top of the draft.  Plus, we have 7 picks in those three rounds.

So that leaves us to look at the strength of this draft on the Offensive side.  First, let's look at what we need. 

• OL - There is a case to be made that we need backups at every OL position.  Center, Guard, and Tackle all need depth and future starters.  Since it takes 2-3 years for most OL to flourish, now is the time to get replacements for Flo, Kosier, and maybe even Gurode.
• WR - Here's a summary of my soapbox.  WR is the single biggest bust position in the draft.  By far.  It's not even close.  Second, GM Jerry has repeated over and over (and over) that WR is best filled via Free Agency.  Lastly, our 1st round pick is a WR.  Yet I can't find another skill position that we could improve the team now or in the near future with an upgrade.
• QB - This is just because we're going to take one.  When is a BIG question.  And no matter what idiots like Tex or some mediots say, Tony Romo is a very good QB that no rookie, not even Sanchez or Stafford, could unseat in the next 2-3 years.  Saying anything to the contrary is simply ignorant and intentionally inflamatory.

So where does this draft's stregth lie?

OT - The past two years have seen a bounty like few times before.  When 2 of the projected guards become starting OTs and 8 OTs were picked in the first round ahead of them is simply stunning...and hardly a bust among them.  This year has an equal bounty.  The one truism is that OTs rise and OGs fall.  This years group is deep, talented, and even late round picks will have a chance to make it.  Value: Rounds 1/2 (maybe only to the mid 2nd round)

OG - Meaning that this group will fall to the second round.  They always do and that's why studs like Max Jean-Gilles and co. were such great picks.  This year's crop is very shallow at the top, though.  3 or 4 studs are joined by a strong group of question marks and underacheivers.  Value: Rounds 2/3

C - This year may have the best set of centers I've ever seen.  There are 3, maybe 4 guys that are going to be starters in this league for the next decade.  The top 2, Alex Mack and Max Unger, are as good of prospects that have come out in years.  There's at least 4 others that will be drafted high, including the Remmington award winner AQ Shipley, Wood, and Caldwell.  Value: Rounds 2-4

RB - Really, who cares.  A pretty poor class anyway.

QB - There's a couple of intriguing guys that may drop.  A&M's McGee, White, and Tech's Harrell all could drop to the 4th or 5th round a be very interesting grooming prospect.  A couple of others may go undrafted.  Value: Rounds 1, 5, UDFA

WR - The single biggest reason why we won't take one.  Outside of the top 2, this is a really weak group.  A bunch of "posession" type receivers without the requisite speed and quickness.  Those with a little speed have manos de piedros.  Value:  Top 10.

This is not to say that we will be taking an OL in the 2nd and 3rd, though the draft would point to the "value" being there.  But if I were Ciskowski, my board would point to Center if one of the top two falls, Guard if Duke Robinson is available, or even Phil Loadholdt if all other guys are gone.

But the surprise of the draft is going to be in Rounds 3 or 4.  This is typically where GM Jerry gets to take his pet cat.  If Pat White or McGee is sitting there in the 4th, I could see him pulling the trigger.

But I really like Rafael's Scenario One from his recent thread.  C - Max Unger and FS - Darcel McBath will be our first two picks.  The rest is all filler after the defense is stocked in the middle rounds as predicted in the Defense analysis.

I was going to start with Offense, as it is much easier to pinpoint the strengths of this draft class, especially in terms of where it meets the needs of the Cowboys.  However, Rafael's latest thread made me look harder on the Defensive side.

I believe Rafael when he says that safety is a priority in the war room at Valley Ranch.  But I really think the strength of the draft suggests that when push comes to shove, our pick will go elsewhere.

The late George Young coined the "Planet Theory" that states there are only so many humans that can play football at over 300 (now 350+) on the planet.  This was the Bill Parcells mantra that permiates the NFC East and all Parcels desciples.  Championship teams are built along the front lines, that's not debatable.  But there's also little debate that most truly gifted skill players are picked in the first few rounds.

So where does the strength of this draft lie on Defense?  Let's look at every group.  In every case, I rate the strength based on a 3-4 scheme.

NT - There is really only one elite player (B.J. Raji).  Yes, Jerry is elite, but not for the NT or 5-technique DE position.  There are, however, quite a few 2nd tier players that fit the traditional 2-gap pluggers that we will (or should) be targeting.  Ron Brace, Chris Baker, Terrance Knighton, Sammie Lee Hill, and Dorrell Scott will all be chosen in rounds 2-4.  Given the planet theory and the bevy of teams transitioning to the 3-4, I would expect this group to go quickly.  Value:  Round 3/4

DE - 5-technique DE's are truly rare individuals.  In the past (and is still true today), these are true DL "tweeners" that usually come from the DT ranks.  That's true again with one of the blogsphere and YouTube sensations Jarron Gilbert.  Tyson Jackson from LSU is another.  These are the truly rare talents and usually the most difficult to find.  However this is a very weak class outside the aforementioned pair and likely 1st Round pick Robert Ayers.  Unless Gilbert falls to us at #51, this looks like an area that we may see a flyer late in the draft, because the Value: Round 1

OLB - This draft is like most every other.  There's a TON of DE's and OLB's that project to the outside of the 3-4.  Led by Texas' Orakpo, this group has talent throughout the draft.  Value:  Rounds 2-7

ILB - And like most, there's plenty of "pluggers" that can fill inside.  There doesn't seem to be the next Urlacher or Singletary, but the draft has plenty of talent that will be available after the first two rounds.  Value:  Rounds 3+

CB - This might be the worst class on record.  No sub 4.5 speedsters, no shutdown man-to-man guys, and little size.  The consensus top talent Jenkins is projected by some to be a better fit at FS ala Antrelle Rolle.  Most of the other guys are just that...JAGs.  Value:  None

S - Ah, finally.  Here's my issue.  This draft class has few, if any, elite-level talent.  Every single prospect has a noticible weakness and the highest ranked (by many) is Sean Smith, a converted CB.  There's a complete lack of Sean Taylor, Ed Reed, Polomalu, or Laron Landry types.  At best, you've got a group that consists of Louis Delmas, Rashad Johnson, Patrick Chung, and William Moore. 

Because of the changing safety position, there will probably be a second round run on these guys.  However, I cannot find an appreciable difference with the 2nd-tier guys.  Chip Vaughn, Darcel McBath, David Bruton, and Michael Hamlin all have similar measurables and talent.  Most have better intangibles.  The one comment I hear consistently among this goup is 'extremely productive'.

Because of this group, I see the Value: Round 3/4.

It's a FACT that the Cowboys' needs are primarily on this side of the ball.  However, this draft seems to point to the middle rounds for finding the talent.  It just so happens that we have 5 picks in Rounds 4 & 5.  I would think that unless a talent Gilbert or one of the top safeties falls to us in Round 3, our defensive areas will mostly be met in those rounds.  Here's to McBath or Moore taking a nosedive. 

My picks would be:

4 (101) - S, McBath (sleeper Curtis Taylor)

4 (117) - NT, Sammie Lee Hill (sleepers Terrance Knighton, Chris Baker) 

5 (156) - ILB, Jasper Brinkley (sleeper Lawerence Sidbury

5 (166) - OLB, Nic Harris (sleeper any number of small school unknowns) 

5 (172) - DE, Kalif Mitchell, he is the sleeper.

Now, this would represent meeting our needs with the strength of the draft.  Of course, each of these would be moot if a projected 2nd rounder falls to us in the third like Brace or Delmas/Chung/Moore or Gilbert.  But this is where I think the value lies for this draft for the Cowboys.

Having filled every "need" with the signings of Brookings, Olshansky, and Sensabaugh the Cowboys seem to be out of the FA biz.  Before you start ranting WR, I'll get to that later.  Sure, a Killer Davis re-sign/replacement or two is preferable; nevertheless, there doesn't seem to be any starting positions that cry out as a need.

That's not to say that there aren't places that could use an upgrade. 

Parcells used to say that there are 13 or 14 "starting" jobs on each side of the ball.  On Offense, the 2nd TE, 3rd WR, and change-of-pace RBs are almost as important as the regular starters.  However, the Boys are stacked at those positions.  (Hold your horses...it's coming)

On Defense, it is even more important to have 3 or 4 CBs, rotation DLs, and extra LBs.  The nickel, dime , Jumbo, goal line, and other packages and schemes mean that you need at least 14 qualtiy players.  Further, the DBs and LBs form the core of special teams.  It is here that those signings plugged the starting holes, but there's still room for upgrades...from our own 2nd and 3rd year players.

Too many times we get fixated on the draft, only to forget them the next year.  It's a proven fact that most players take 3-4 years to develop into quality starters.  Only the truly elite talent can succeed right away, and even then, they usually improve greatly over the next year or two.

So who can we expect to make the jump from our own roster?

Offense:  With so much talent and youth at most starting positions, there's few openings.  Only OL shows any age, but most have plenty of tread and all are signed to long-term deals.

Miles Austin - Here ya go.  GM Jerry has made it clear that T.O. was released to make room for Austin.  Go listen to his interview on The Fan closely.  The coaches made it clear that Austin needed the opportunity to play.  With Williams & T.O., there was not enough balls to go around and few opportunities.  Now Austin will get them.  And he's right at the age/experience level where WRs normally bust out.

Doug Free - Let's face it.  Flo "the walking false start" is on the downside of his career.  I thought it a mistake to re-sign him to such a long, expensive contract.  But "The Freak", as he was called in college, is a truly gifted athlete.  OL are the slowest developing talent of any position group.  Think Tunei, Newton, and most of the 70's greats.  All took 3 or more years.  All were considered "busts" at one time or another.  All became great.  I truly believe that Free will replace Flo by the end of this year.

Rodney Hannah - This former basketball player (think Antonio Gates) had little playing experience.  But Tony Curtis, who was a very decent player for us, was allowed to leave because of this guy.  He's big, fast, athletic, and has very decent hands. 

Montrae Holland - This might be a stretch since he's been a starter for Denver and is physically mature.  But the point is that he's much younger and a whole lot bigger than Kosier, my favorite whipping boy for all things wrong with the offense.  Hell, I even blame Flo's problems on him.  Well, no longer.  But that doesn't mean I don't want an upgrade.  It's time to find out if this pickup from last year is worth the draft pick and big salary (for a backup) we gave up.  He's bigger than Kosier, let's hope he's better.

Defense:  Here is where we really need some guys to step up, but few viable candidates

Jason Hatcher/Stephen Bowen - For some reason, I can't separate these two.  Both have shown great promise and potential.  Both are regular contributors.  Bowen is a Canty clone...big run stuffer with some flashes of pass rushing.  Hatcher has been extremely effective on third downs as a pass rusher.  He basically puts Spears on the bench.  These two make Spears expendable next year, though the uncapped year will make that point moot.

Bobby Carpenter - I debated quite a while whether or not to include him.  Knowing a debate would follow.  But the fact is that the guy has talent.  He wouldn't have been a 1st round pick without it.  But the fact is that he hasn't lived up to expectations and his pedigree.  Are there reasons?  Sure...the position switches, lack of opportunity, etc., etc.  Well, now there's no excuse.  And I for one believe he'll step up to the plate.

Alan Ball - The dude is fast.  Real fast.  He's also got enough experience to know his limitations.  He'll get his chance as the 3rd/4th CB.  Here's saying that he becomes an asset, rather than the liability that he's been at times.

Anthony Spencer - Like Holland, it's tough to put a starter or former starter in this analysis, but Spencer has shown potential, but not greatness.  Unlike Holland, whom I think could be good, I think Spencer will be great.  This year, he makes Ellis nothing more than a spot player, maybe even trade bait.

Hopefuls:  I don't know who coined the phrase, but it's quoted often on this blog..."Hope is not a plan".  But here's a few guys that I'd really like to see step up.  It would go a long way to make the Cowboys a much better team\

Pat Watkins - Big, fast, fragile and dumber than a doorknob.  Having the light turn on for him would go a long way toward finally solving our Safety problem,  even though Sensabaugh is a great pickup and may be the answer.  Still, we need depth and it would be nice to see some real competition.

Tra Battle - Dude was a 3rd team All-American.  He needs to get bigger and stronger.  Very good potential.

Junior Siavii/Marcus Dixon - These two practice squaders would go a long way to solving the NT rotation.  Siavii in particular has the size, though his height is not ideal.  Dixon may be more of a DE (as listed), but he's nearly identical to Ratliff (whose also listed as a DE) and is young.  What still bugs me about Siavii is that he was out of football for two years ('06/'07) after being drafted in '04. 

Honorable mentions would include Courtney Brown (damn, Safety is full of hope), Cricket Anderson (who might be in the "expect" category),  and Isaiah Stanback. 

If you're like me, still recovering from the most disappointing December collapse in recent memory, it's time to get over it.  The promise of tomorrow begins with FA and the draft.

As Rafael notes, they are inextractably linked.  You don't spend $10 million on a ILB and then draft one with your first pick.  Further, if you lose a starter, you must determine if you have his replacement on hand.

There are few real needs on this team, but a look at the December collapse points to 2 very real weaknesses (or as Romo puts it, 'we were exposed')...

1.  OL - The Eagles exposed the protection schemes and Cory Proctor.  Gurode and Flo both played well below their Pro Bowl pedigree and the lack of Kosier caused a change in protection schemes that left both exposed and they failed miserably to compensate.

2.  Run D - This exposure was evident all season.  Occasionally, they played well, but the really good teams showed that they could run the ball.  As most observant bloggers know, Run D is about the middle of your D.  From the DL, ILB, and both Safety positions (but mostly the SS), run defense is about excecution and attitude.

Further, our own Free Agents pose a limited area of need, as 2-3 starters are likely to be lost...if you include Burnett as a starter.  Canty and Thomas being the most likely to not be starters next year.  Further, unless Roy WIlly takes a HUGE paycut... he's not worth his current cap hit...he will be released.

By my count, that leaves 4 positions of need:  OG, DE/NT, Safety, and ILB.  This has also been a consensus among draft sites and BTB nation.

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"I'm worried"...

"Losing Faith"....

"10 Reasons why we'll lose to the Ravens"...

Starting at the beginning of the season and all throughout this year, there have been entirely too many knee-jerk reactions to every twist and turn that this version of "All My Cowboys" has produced.

As predicted, the season has followed a remarkably consistent theme.  Offense would carry the first part of the season.  Defense would emerge as Doomsday III.  A Dynasty will be borne of fire and strife and the true character of this team would be revealed in December and January.

Other than the string of injuries mid-season, has anything you've seen not absolutely proven this to be true?  Are you losing faith so easily based on "distractions" and tough losses?

Penalties (discipline), turnovers (Good Romo/Bad Romo), and Special Teams (intangibles) were always a concern.  But in the final analysis, it was said here and many, many other pre-season analysis that this team had the best talent in the NFL. 

Hell, I got so bored of the same inane drivel that I put a self-imposed moratorium on debating the same tired b.s.  This team was either going to prove itself elite, meet all obstacles, or it was going to implode.  I just simply knew that talent, in the end, determines the great teams.

And the events of the last 5 or 6 weeks has simply proven my point.  This team can beat any team in the league.  Only the loss of 5 Pro-Bowlers early in the season stopped a juggernaut from being unfolded.  They can defeat any defense.  They can stop any offense.

Character (bravery) is defined not by being fearless, but by being scared to death, facing adversity, and still performing to your highest potential.  That's this team.  That's why our 'Boys will win the Super Bowl.

As an introduction to some and a normal event to those who know me, I'm Fighter15.  Most on these blogs know me, but for those who don't, here's a self-assessment.  I'm the most optimistic 'Boys apologist on the planet.  And unashamed.

With the merging of clearly the two best Cowboys blogs, I'm coming out of a semi) self-imposed moratorium.  Best thing to happen to the internet since free porn.

So where are we with our 'Boys?  Summertime dominance and dreams of perfect seasons now dashed; the question is: Do we suck? or Are the 'Boys of the new millinium ("Naughty Boys" anyone?) ever going to fullfill their immense potential?

In short, this season is going according to Hoyle.  Other than the rash of injuries, this team is going through a normal progression to being great.  As Big Bill used to say, "You've gotta get hit in the mouth before you can tell what your made of..." or something close.

This team was being handed the next great Cowboys dynasty label the first part of this year.  Hell, I was ringing the bell on this bandwagon.  Problem was, that they could never put it all together.

Offense is fine.  Not having Romo is deadly.  They simply need to find their rythym and get everyone healthy.  Sure, there is a rash of inconsistencies that's killing this group.  Penalties, poor blocking, yada...yada...yada.  There's still one uncontestable truth...this team has more talent than any other in the NFL.  Romo, Barber, T.O., Roy Williams, El Gato, Witten, Davis, Martellus,...geez, it's obcene the individual talent here.  And yet they haven't played a game together since week 3. 

Defense has been disappointing, but Wade is right about one thing.  The last 3 or 4 games have been a dramatic improvement.  But once again, the loss of Newman, Roy Willy, and Pacman hurt.  That's 3 all-pro DBs out.  But the great news was that we got great experience for our two rookies who both look like future superstars. 

And that has to be the theme for the rest of the season.  Time to gel is now.  Get everyone back, reset the clock, and just beat the snot out of everyone.  Don't care about the "style points", just smack the living shit out of the opponent in front of you.  Win as a team and not just survive, but prosper.

I just see the rest of this season as the making of a champion, honed by fire.  Nothing has happened this year to shake my undying belief that this is still the best team in the NFL.