SB Nation User Blog: FireJimBowden

Chat with BP's Will Carroll

FireJimBowden — Sun, 08 Feb 2009 14:57:37 -0000

Chat with BP's Will Carroll

Today I posted the transcript of a chat I did with BP's Will Carroll, touching on player conditioning in general as well as the Washington Nationals' troubles with injuries.

Nationals WAR updated

FireJimBowden — Sun, 01 Feb 2009 15:34:45 -0000

I've made some updates to my Nationals WAR to reflect player movement. Also, I'm using PECOTA for pitchers and CHONE for hitters. I think those are the best projections out there. Finally I've adjusted for a lower run scoring environment, assuming 10.1 runs per win, down from 10.5.

Hitters, Luck, BABIP, and the Nationals

FireJimBowden — Mon, 19 Jan 2009 18:58:33 -0000

Hitters, Luck, BABIP, and the Nationals

Today I looked at the OBPs and BAs that various Nationals players would have had using the Bendix and Dutton xBABIP projections posted at THT.

Pitching, Luck, and the Nationals

FireJimBowden — Sat, 10 Jan 2009 19:10:06 -0000

Pitching, Luck, and the Nationals

Today I looked at how the Nationals' 2009 pitchers were affected in 2008 by luck factors including BABIP, strand rate, and HR/FB rate.

Rating Managers by Use of IBBs

FireJimBowden — Sun, 04 Jan 2009 18:19:34 -0000

Rating Managers by Use of IBBs

Today I looked at which managers are the best and worst when it comes to use of the IBB, building on work done by Tango, Lichtman, and Dolphin in The Book. Check it out if you're interested.

Nationals 2008 Base-Stealing WPA

FireJimBowden — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 12:18:52 -0000

Nationals 2008 Base-Stealing WPA

My analysis of win expectancy added and lost on the basepaths in 2008, which finds that in context the Nationals hurt themselves even more than their raw 65.3% stolen base success rate would suggest.

I haven't seen anyone do this kind of analysis before, so if this is a kinda new idea, folks can feel free to copy with their own teams.

Nationals WAR--Various 1B scenarios

FireJimBowden — Sun, 28 Dec 2008 15:53:17 -0000

Nationals WAR--Various 1B scenarios

Today I look at various possible scenarios for the Nationals 1B situation, sans Teixeira.

Nationals WAR

FireJimBowden — Thu, 25 Dec 2008 15:19:32 -0000

Nationals WAR

I am maintaining a tally of Nationals team Wins Above Replacement (WAR) at my Nationals team blog, FireJimBowden.blogspot.com, and will update it periodically as the team's roster takes shape.

I'm using Tango's method for hitters and the Dodger Sims method for pitchers. I'm using Bill James's projections from Fangraphs for offense and pitching for most players and Marcel for players James doesn't project.

Defensive projections are simply an average of the 2008 UZR/150 and Rate2. For a few players who had so few opportunities in 2008, these defensive metrics were too skewed by sample sizes, so I just substituted average defense for these guys.

Offensive playing time is entirely my best guess, but innings projections are from James (or Marcel if James didn't project the player). Because of the holes in the bullpen I'm filling 120 innings with TBD replacement-level pitchers. (Although if those innings go to the likes of Jorge Sosa we'll be longing for replacement.)