SB Nation User Blog: FishHead

Draft, High Schoolers V. College

FishHead — Tue, 03 Feb 2009 04:51:30 -0000

The draft discussion thread got me thinking and I went and looked back on 4 recent drafts, 02 03 04 and 05. For my own knowledge I wanted to see if you were better off drafting a HS kid or a college kid with your first round pick. I went through the 4 drafts and looked at each pick and my own oppinion to judge if the player lived up to first round expectations. Now these were my oppinions but I was objective and pretty hard(Thats what she said). Basically I asked myself would I be happy with this pick if this were my team. There were a few tweeners, that I told my self for anyone who I had to think about I would put under the no. I feel to consider a first rounder a success he should be more than a solid contributer to a team. For example I did not label Taylor Tankersley a hit. He was a tweener, but I dont think you want to draft a middle reliever with your first round pick. On the other hand I considered Ryan Wagner a hit with his recent success. I did the first round and the supplemental. Heres the results:

(I will list them like this 5/8. which means 5 high school hitters were hits out of 8 HS hitter draftees)

05 Draft

HS
- 1st Rd - 4/7 Hitters; 1/4 pitchers
- 1s - 0/2 Hitters; 3/7 pitchers
- Total = 9/21
Coll
- 1st Rd - 5/10 Hitters; 2/9 pitchers
- 1s - 1/3 Hitters; 2/6 pitchers
- Total = 10/28

04 Draft

HS
- 1st Rd - 3/7 Hitters; 2/6 pitchers
- 1s - 0/1 Hitters; 0/2 pitchers
- Total = 5/16
Coll
- 1st Rd - 1/4 Hitters; 3/13 pitchers
- 1s - 0/1 Hitters; 1/7 pitchers
- Total = 5/25

03 Draft

HS
- 1st Rd - 4/9 Hitters; 2/3 pitchers
- 1s - 2/2 Hitters; 1/3 pitchers
- Total = 9/17
Coll
- 1st Rd - 4/11 Hitters; 3/7 pitchers
- 1s - 0/2 Hitters; 0/0 pitchers
- Total = 6/20

02 Draft

HS
- 1st Rd - 5/9 Hitters; 4/7 pitchers
- 1s - 0/2 Hitters; 0/1 pitchers
- Total = 5/16
Coll
- 1st Rd - 3/5 Hitters; 3/9 pitchers
- 1s - 0/3 Hitters; 0/5 pitchers
- Total = 6/21

My conclusion is that there turned out to be a higher failure rate amongst college draftees in the first round as opposed to High School draftees. More shock was the fact that first round high school pitchers had a lower failure rate than college "polished" pitchers. I believe and have believed that the bust rate for all draftees is extremely high and the "safer" college guys are not exactly safer. In fact first round high schoolers turned out to be safer.

Now the problem with this data is that it is my oppinion. I felt I was fair and if other people choose they can do their own and come back with their own info. I feel I can look at the names objectively and give my oppinion of them.

Id like to hear arguments and support so have at it.

Who signed these International Free Agents?

FishHead — Mon, 26 Jan 2009 18:57:24 -0000

I have been looking and can not find who signed LHP Swarling Jimenez? Can anyone help me? He was hyped as a LH Pedro.

Also I have not been able to find johenser cevallos and jhonaton Baez, 2 other hyped prospects. Thanks

Thanks Thanks Thanks a lot

Predict this years Mike Stanton

FishHead — Thu, 22 Jan 2009 03:46:55 -0000

Last year Mike Stanton came from a 2nd round pick to 39 homers and close to .300 AVG. who will be this years mike stanton? Not who will hit 39 homers but who will come from the International scene or the draft in their debut and set the prospect scene on fire? A couple off the top of my head are Destin Hood and Isaac Galloway. I have high hopes for both of these two and cant wait to see how they progress in their debuts.

Who can (will) the Marlins get for Uggla?

FishHead — Thu, 22 Jan 2009 00:06:53 -0000

What would your team give up for Dan Uggla? Marlins of course will be looking for cheap young pitching?

Uggla's agent speaks about the future
> Posted by Mike Berardino at 9:39:09 PM

Just had an interesting (and slightly disturbing) conversation with Jeff Borris, the agent for Dan Uggla.

I already had the salary requests for Uggla ($5.35M) and the Marlins ($4.4M) in their upcoming arbitration battle, so I asked him if there had been any last-minute talk of a multiyear deal for a two-time All-Star with 90 home runs the past three years.

"The Marlins are not interested in signing Daniel Uggla to a multiyear contract," Borris said. "We always would be open to listen to anything, but they made it very clear to us they were only going to sign Hanley and Hanley alone."

That was a pretty strong statement, so I pressed Borris a bit. I wondered if he had any concerns Uggla might not be with the Marlins on Opening Day, especially if he were to win a judgment that sits nearly a full million higher than what the Fish apparently had budgeted for him.

"I don't know what their motives are," Borris said. "They made it very clear the club will be going in a different direction."

The only question from the Uggla camp seems to be how soon that other shoe drops. With younger, cheaper options such as Emilio Bonifacio and Chris Coghlan in the fold -- and you don't go out and trade two vital cogs like Josh Willingham and Scott Olsen for Bonifacio if you have no intention of playing him at his natural position very soon -- Uggla could be on the trading block this July, if not sooner.

And how about Bonifacio? What does Borris suspect could happen with him?

"His price is right for the Marlins," Borris said.

Ouch.

So how would you feel about Life After Uggla from a Marlins' perspective? Is all this talk about improved defense just a veiled attempt to prepare the fan base for the eventual subtraction of one of the five greatest Rule V finds ever?

http://blogs.sun-sentinel.com/sports_baseball_marlins/2009/01/ugglas-agent-speaks-about-the-future.html

2009 Breakout pitchers

FishHead — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 20:22:44 -0000

Who are your breakout pitcher candidates for the 2009 season?

Off the top of my head, Wilmer Font, Martin Perez, Hector Correa

Some way under the radar prospects from the marlins are RHP Blake Brewer (18) and LHP Edgar Olmos (18). Both are from the 08 draft. Both are projectable at 6'5" and have room to grow and add on some size which could lead to increase in velocity (not sure of their velo right now).

Stop gaps vs playing the young guys

FishHead — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 23:16:53 -0000

After thinking about what KC has done with trading for stop gap mediocre veterans, I came up with a question: Is it better to have stop gaps and play .500 ball or let young and/or inexpensive guys play the positions and sink or swim and play .400 ball? Let me explain.

Look at what the Devil Rays did by having all those top draft picks and by making a few trades, they go from worst to the world series. By a team of mine showing me they can play .500 ball at best does not satisfy me. I would rather have the full on rebuilding mode, play poor ball, and get high draft picks. KC is not contending with these trades. I understand teams want a winning environment, but I would just rather rebuild from scrap with cheaper guys. Take the money you would have spent on crisp and jacobs and put it in the draft or International Free Agency. What is everyone elses thoughts?

Dayan Viciedo

FishHead — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 00:25:26 -0000

Agent: Viciedo Declared Free Agent

Posted Nov. 8, 2008 2:18 pm by John Manuel
Filed under: International

Dayan Viciedo, the Cuban teenager who left the island in May seeking to become a free agent, has gotten what he wanted. His agent, Jaime Torres, said Saturday that Major League Baseball has declared Viciedo a free agent, and that major league clubs already are in hot pursuit.

The White Sox, who signed Torres’ client Alexei Ramirez last offseason, already have made an offer, according to the Chicago Sun-Times. Torres said he’d received one other offer by Saturday morning and has scheduled two workouts in the Dominican Republic to further showcase his 19-year-old client this week.

When Viciedo first arrived in Miami in late May, Torres kept his arrival under wraps briefly, then announced in June that Viciedo had been in the U.S. and passed through the draft without being selected, making him a free agent. MLB wasn’t buying that argument, but even though Viciedo had been in the U.S., Torres was able to establish his residency in a third country, the D.R. Now he’s also gone through the unblocking process and is free to sign.

Torres said two other talented Cubans he represents, junior team defectors Noel Arguellez, a lefthander, and Jose Iglesias, a shortstop, are still going through "paperwork" to establish third-country residency and go through the "unblocking" process, a procedure aimed at preventing Cubans from funneling money back to Raoul Castro’s government.

Here’s our original scouting report on Viciedo:

Born in March 1989, Viciedo is listed at 6-foot-1, 210 pounds, but reports are that he was bigger than that last year at the World Junior Championship in Mexico. Viciedo has excellent power and hitting ability, however, with one scout comparing him to Giants prospect Angel Villalona. He slugged over .500 two of the last three seasons in Cuba’s Serie Nacional, its top-level league, hitting 14 homers in 2005-2006—as a 16-year-old—in his best season.

"His body could go the same route as Livan Hernandez, and when I saw him in Mexico, he wasn’t very good at third base anymore," one international scouting director said. "But he can really hit; in fact, I think he’s probably a better hitter than Villalona."

Villalona received a $2.1 million bonus from the Giants in 2006.

Another scout who had seen Viciedo was less enthused about him as a player, pegging him as a first baseman-only hitter with a bad body. "You know everybody liked Kendry Morales," the scout said, referring to the Angels’ Cuban DH/first baseman, "and he had some other tools. But his body’s gone south and he’s pretty much just a DH. So I think it’s premature to get too excited about this guy."

Viciedo burst on the scene as a 15-year-old, when he was MVP of the World Junior Championships. In Serie Nacional in 2005-2006, he made the all-star team while playing for Villa Clara. His Villa Clara manager, former national team star Victor Mesa, told Cuba’s Granma news in 2006 that Viciedo has “a good arm and tremendous power. He’s got excellent technique, but at the same time is surprisingly calm for his young age and very secure in defense.”

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=1789

What are some thoughts on this kid? The kid is lazy but can hit the crap out of the ball. Sounds a lot like a potential miguel cabrera.

Update on international signings?

FishHead — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 21:23:48 -0000

I was wondering if anyone had an update on any international signings? I saw an subscriber article on ba and was wondering if anyone could let us know of the names of the signed people. Please dont post the article, just an update on who signed. thanks filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler

Aflac All American Game

FishHead — Sun, 10 Aug 2008 18:10:07 -0000

I was wondering if anyone else watched the game and what their thoughts were. I didnt get to watch the entire game but I came away with these thoughts from what I did see:

The 09 draft class is loaded with pitchers.

6'7" LHP Tyler Matzek appears to be the head of the high school class hitting 93 consistently.

LHP Matt Purke looked equally impressive throwing in the low 90's and topping out at 95.

RHP Jacob Turner was throwing in the low 90's and recorded 5 strikeouts in 2 innings.

6'8" RHP Chad Thompson impressed me more than most. I imagine this guy will be a top 10 pick with as much projectability as he has already throwing in the low 90's and hitting 94. Hes really skinny right now so as he fills out and fixes his mechanics he should be throwing in the upper 90's.

RHP Mychal Givens really impressed me as well. I havent heard to many people raving about his pitching and i always here people talk about him as a SS. But he was hitting 95-96 consistently and topped out at 97. I even read somewhere they said he topped out at 98 but I did not see it. I dont think anyone in their right mind drafts him as a SS. HS kids throwing 96 are rare. I was very impressed with him and see him as a top 10 pick as well.

OF Donovan Tate was impressive as well and displayed some power. I saw him hit a bad pitch to the warning track.

Overall Im impressed with this crop and I personally believe this will be an excellent draft class more pitching dominant. Probably similar to the 07 draft.

Logan Morrison: 8 straight hits

FishHead — Wed, 06 Aug 2008 01:11:44 -0000

Logan Morrison has reeled off a few hitting streaks this season, but none as condensed as his effort this weekend.

Morrison collected a hit in his eighth consecutive at-bat as part of a 4-for-5 five-RBI effort Sunday, powering the Jupiter Hammerheads top the Palm Beach Cardinals, 12-8, at Roger Dean Stadium.

Coming off a 4-for-4 game on Saturday, the 20-year-old first baseman extended his "hits" streak to eight at-bats before taking a called third strike in the eighth inning. He drilled two-run homers in the first and third, lined an RBI double in the fourth and singled and scored in the sixth.

"I'm happy, but there's always room for improvement," Morrison said. "You can't be too happy or else you'll think you know everything."

For eight plate appearances, Morrison did appear all-knowing, though he downplayed the streak.

"It's nice, but at the same time, I wasn't worried about it," he said. "You're just trying to get a hit and dealing with the present."

The former 22nd-round Draft pick is 24-for-44 (.546) with four homers and 11 RBIs during an 11-game hitting streak. Both of Sunday's roundtrippers came off Cardinals starter Brad Furnish.

"In the the first AB, he was working me in and he threw me a changeup and over the plate," Morrison recalled. "I just recognized it and hit over the fence in right-center."

He came to the plate in the third, looking for a heater.

"He went away first and then the next pitch, it was a fastball in," Morrison said. "I was waiting for him to come back in."

It was the fourth four-hit performance of the season for the Kansas City native, who has 16 hits in his last six games. Sunday's effort was the third time he has driven in at least four runs.

"I've just been loose and relaxed, getting my pitches to hit," he said. "I'm not swinging at balls and I'm being patient."

Morrison strung together a 15-game hitting streak from June 5-24 after recording an 11-game run from April 20-May 12.

"I'm staying on balls, I'm not being afraid to be jammed," said Morrison, who leads the Florida State League with a .355 batting average, nearly 100 points higher than his 2007 mark. "I'm not pulling off and trying to hit home runs."

Still, the long balls are coming. He ranked third in the Marlins' Minor League system with 24 homers last season and participated in Home Run Derby at this year's FSL All-Star Game.

"I wanted to not worry about the home runs this year," he said. "If they come, they come. And they've come lately."

Morrison surpassed a 3-for-4, four-RBI effort against Daytona on April 27 but said he tries not to dwell on past performances.

"It's not what you did in the past, it's what you're doing in the present," he said. "I don't really think about the streaks unless someone tells me. My cousin will text me and say, 'Hey you've hit in whatever games,' and I'm like, 'OK, thanks.' I don't really know about them otherwise."

Morrison split his rookie season between the Gulf Coast League and short-season Jamestown in 2006. He hit .267 with 24 homers and 86 RBIs as a South Atlantic League All-Star last season at Greensboro before earning a promotion to Jupiter this spring.

All-Star Jeff Allison (7-7) recorded the win, despite giving up five runs on seven hits over five innings.

Furnish (7-8), a former second-round pick, was charged with six runs on seven hits over four frames.

Matthew Arburr and Charles Kingrey each drove in three runs for Palm Beach (20-21).

Logan Morrison has got to be climbing up prospect ladders. He seems to be advanced in maturity as a hitter just as porcello is as a pitcher. Already realizing he doesnt have to go for homeruns everytime up and accepting that they will come. This is what makes elite hitters like pujols for example. I am more impressed with a guy who will hit 25-30 homeruns and bat .330 vs a guy who hits 40 homeruns and hits .260. Where does morrison rank in your eyes? Top 75 prospects? how bout among firstbaseman?