It's the question on everyone's minds, and yeah, it's already been beaten to death.  So what!  Right now, I can't exactly tell who the Twins closer is.  Or if there even is one.

Gardenhire seems steadfast in his reluctance to take the title of "closer" away from Matt Capps. -But then again Matt Capps has 2 holds in his last 2 save opportunities.  And I thought the title of "closer" meant that you finished the game and had no back up unless the lead was gone.  What do you call your closer who has a closer?

Obviously, this "Matt Capps unless/until he sucks" closer isn't exactly a long term solution.  Yet it seems to be the manager's weapon of choice now.  So, instead of letting Gary keep making decisions that we will all disagree with, I'm going use the magical power of hypotheticism to let you (yes, YOU) determine this whole "closer role" thingie.  Because you're obviously the most qualified individual to make these kinds of decisions.

But mostly I just wanted one easy to find location for the banter about this.  Plus, I wanted to make a poll with jokes.

As I sat in my seat last night at Target Field during last night's pounding, I unwillingly listened to a fan in my section berating the Twins.  He went on and on about how they are a bunch of overpaid babies who don't try hard enough.  This morning, I woke up to a local radio personality griping about how Mauer and his contract are "a distraction" in the clubhouse causing the Twins to lose focus.  Then when I arrived at work today, a coworker stopped by my desk because he felt the need to adamantly express how he thinks the Twins players are faking injuries and that Ron Gardenhire should be fired.

Sadly, this kind of resentment has become more and more commonplace in 2011.  For some unknown reason, fans and some members of the media actually seem to get personally offended when their team of choice is not doing well.  I don't get it.  Maybe it's just me, but when I hear someone ranting irrationally about a sports team's poor performance, it just reminds me of a toddler throwing a temper tantrum because he doesn't want to put away his toys.  It's immature, and it makes me enjoy baseball less because of it.

Am I any less of a die hard Twins fan because I don't hold some personal vendetta against any member of the Twins organization for the team being in last place?  Should I be there with the rest of them looking for a Mauer-shaped skapegoat to crucify for causing the team to lose?  Why do people feel the need to point fingers and blame someone when things don't go as they want them to?

We're not talking about who should have made the decision to evacuate a city before an impending flood.  This isn't life and death here.  This is baseball.  It's a sport; a recreational passtime we follow for entertainment purposes.  Nothing more.  No matter how closely I follow the Twins and how hard I root for them to win, I'm not going to post a comment on the Strib site saying that the Twins don't deserve to have their new ballpark "because they suck."  I'm not going to go on any profanity-laced tirade about how the players are a bunch of millionaire panzies.  I'm not going to riot in the streets because my team didn't win Game 7.

Baseball (and any sport, really) is effected by luck.  Sometimes things work out and everything is awesome.  Sometimes things go wrong and it's difficult to watch.  You endure the hard times so that the good times are that much sweeter.  Choosing to become bitter just robs you of any enjoyment you might get from this sport that you supposedly care about.  It's pointless; negativity just feeding negativity.

If you're going to argue that Mauer's contract was too expensive or that Bill Smith should initiate a fire sale or that Gardy should have a more consistent batting order game-to-game, then do so like an intelligent adult.  I realize that I'm preaching to the choir by posting this here, but I'm just fed up.  All this angry meathead rhetoric is making me like being a Twins fan less because I'm lumped in with this crap by association.

I know it's not terribly original to post about "doom and gloom" fan pessimism, but I don't really care at this point.  I am a notoriously optimistic fan, you see.  I'm generally the one in my group of friends who is saying, "Just be patient.  The Twins always play better after the All-Star break."  You need to understand that I'm not used to losing confidence like this, and especially not THIS EARLY.

A week ago, I felt comfortable in my optimistic wait-and-see approach.  Yes, the Twins were still 3 games below .500, but they had just won 2 over the (division leading) Indians, and held a nice 3-1 record against the rest of the AL Central.  As bad as it was, it wan't that bad.  Things were going to swing for the positive.

Then this last week happened.

Continue reading this post »

OK, so you're looking to prepare some nice early season disaster for your favorite team, but you're not quite sure where to start.  Fear not!  Here at Twinkie Town Kitchens, we have just the recipe for you!

First of all, you'll want to gather the following ingredients:

- 1 first baseman recovering from potentially career-ending injury
- 1 superstar catcher with knee issues
- 2 new starting middle infielders
- 1-2 language/culture barriers
- a dash of GetAfterIt
- 1 closer recovering from potentially career-ending injury/surgery
- 1 reconstructed roster of unproven middle relievers
- a crappy schedule
- 1 bearded man
- 3 buckets of uncontrollable force

Continue reading this post »

Desperate times call for desperate measures.

There is no denying that we need some mighty mustache mojo tonight.  Well, I'm calling on The Tick to provide it.  Yes, this is the best quality video I could find (gimme a break; the show's like 15 years old).

Go Pavstache!  -And go Twins!  Today is our hour of need...

Rugged.  Self-assured.  Adult.

These are the words that describe the man who wears a mustache.  Yes, it says to the world, "I'm a man of action!"  Ah, but action tempered with maturity.

Like a... a fireman!  -Or somebody's dad!

This week, the Texas Rangers come to town, and they bring with them a bevy of good, young hitters.  However, as much success as they've had scoring runs, they've struggled just as much to get outs.  Same old story in Texas.

The Twins are, as usual, the opposite side of that coin.  Yes, the Twins have a lot of good, young hurlers.  They even have some young hitters with high ceilings, but the Twins have still struggled to score runs.  Same old story, again.

For several seasons now, the Rangers have seemed like a good trading partner for the Twins.  While no deal has been made between the teams, it's still fun to play "what if" and think of how our lineup could be improved with the addition of a Rangers hitter.  -And so, along those lines, I give you the player I'm crying for the Twins to make a deal for:  Ian Kinsler.

First off, let me say that I know this is likely impossible.  The Rangers just signed Kinsler to a 5-year, $22 million contract with a $10 million option for 2013.  They've stamped him as their second baseman for the foreseeable future, and it would take a hefty offer to make them consider dealing him.  -But Bill Smith has already shown he's willing to dish a rising young pitcher to improve the lineup for the long term.  Also, the Twins do have a farm system stocked with pitching talent.  The Twins might be able to afford losing a good, young pitcher for the sake of run production.

-And they would get run production, too.  Kinsler is in his 3rd MLB season, and he has a career OPS of .797.  Last year, he was a 20 HR/20 SB guy, and he's going to do that year-in and year-out.  He has decent power as a right-handed hitter, he draws walks, and he can steal bases.  Offensively, he'd be like another Cuddyer with more speed.

So, let's pretend for the sake of innocent "what if" that this is something that could actually happen.  What would the Twins have to give up to make this happen?  My guess would be Brendan Harris + Nick Blackburn + minor league pitcher.  It's my opinion that Harris is not a long-term solution at second.  He could be productive for a season or two, but he's not going to be the anchor that Ian Kinsler would be.  Of course, the Rangers might see things the same way, but this is a "what if" game after all...

Regardless of the package of young pitching that the Twins would part with, this opening day 2010 lineup would just make me salivate:

1. Carlos Gomez - CF - Age 24
2. Ian Kinsler - 2B - Age 27
3. Joe Mauer - C - Age 26
4. Delmon Young - LF - Age 24
5. Justin Morneau - 1B - Age 28
6. Michael Cuddyer - RF - Age 31
7. Jason Kubel - DH - Age 27
8. Matt Tolbert - 3B - Age 27
9. Alexi Casilla - SS - Age 25

I really believe that the Twins are 1 Ian Kinsler away from having a powerful lineup for the next 5 or so years.  -And to me, that is worth giving up a couple of good, young pitchers for.

The Pioneer Press is reporting that Francisco Liriano had a successful start for the Miracle yesterday.  After becoming a new daddy, he'll make another scheduled start on Tuesday for AAA Rochester.

If all things are go, Liriano could be ready to make his first start for the Twins as soon as Sunday, April 13th. Incidentally, that would be the next day that the Twins would need to use Kevin Slowey's spot in the rotation.

AM 1500 KSTP is reporting that Francisco Liriano will begin the season with a start at A Fort Myers followed by a second start at AAA Rochester.  Blackburn (for now) is in the rotation.

No one posted this yet, so I thought I would:

http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/schedule/tentative.jsp?c_id=min&year=2008

I love opening and closing at home!  It spreads out the homestands so that the season seems to last a bit longer for those of us who have season tickets.

The interleague games aren't very nice.  We host Washington again this season (WTF?), as wells as Arizona, and of course, Milwaukee.  The Twins will visit Colorado, Milwaukee, and San Diego in the NL.

The Twins ticket sales department will like this:  The Twins will host the Yankees twice this season.  There's a 3-game series Friday, May 30th through Sunday, June 1st.  The other series is another 3-gamer Monday, August 11th through Wednesday, August 13th (in the middle of the pennant races).  The Twins also host the Red Sox for a 4-game, weekend series Friday, May 9th through Monday, May 12th (No, it's not Memorial Day.).

Unfortunately, the Twins won't have any home, weekend series against the White Sox or Angels.  We do get to see Cleveland and Detroit in the dome twice on weekends, though.

Ugh, I can't wait for March 31st against the Angels...

With all this recent talk about Gardenhire's remarks that he's leaning towards Punto at 2B to begin 2008, I thought it might be fun to take an early look the possibilities for the 25-man roster come April.  The way I see it, there are 17 players on the current active roster that are virtual locks (unless they get traded).  Here they are:

Pitchers (8):
Johan Santana [SP]
Matt Garza [SP]
Scott Baker [SP]
Boof Bonser [SP]
Juan Rincon [MR]
Matt Guerrier [SU]
Pat Neshek [SU]
Joe Nathan [CL]

Position Players (9):
Joe Mauer [C]
Mike Redmond [C]
Justin Morneau [1B]
Nick Punto [2B/IF]
Alexi Casilla [2B/IF]
Jason Bartlett [SS]
Jason Tyner [OF]
Jason Kubel [LF]
Michael Cuddyer [RF]

That leaves a number of uncertain roster spots...

The 5th starter spot should be easy enough to fill with any of several young pitchers including Slowey, Perkins, and Blackburn.  The Twins may also re-sign Carlos Silva, but I think this is less likely due to the large number of young, talented starting pitchers.  There's also some guy named Francisco Liriano who, if healthy, is most likely to end up in the rotation.  However, the Twins may begin him in the bullpen to ease him back, and that would open the door for someone else.  It is very unlikely that the Twins will go outside the organization to sign or trade for starting pitcher.

The bullpen seems to have several spots open.  If you figure for a 12-man pitching staff, that leaves 3 holes to fill.  Jesse Crain will likely take 1 of those spots if he retuns healthy.  The Twins will want at least 1 lefty and a long reliever.  If Liriano begins the season in the pen, he'll satisfy the need for a south paw.  The Twins maight even decide to re-sign Dennys Reyes at a LOOGY, but this seems less likely.  Another left-hander who probably has the inside track at the long relief role is Glen Perkins.  The Twins might also give guys like Cali and DePaula a shot at making the roster.  It is unlikely the Twins will trade for or sign a reliever from outside the organization unless it's a situational lefty.

The biggest holes that need filling are unfortunately in the starting lineup.  Obviously, there's the question of who will be playing at second base.  This has been a hot topic as of late because of Gardenhire's comments about Punto having the inside track.  Either Punto or Casilla will be starting at second base, and the other will be a utility infielder.  So the spot is currently filled.  Sort of.

The other big hole in the infield is third base.  Right now, it looks like the Twins are leaning towards Brian Buscher (or at least giving him a long look).  Still, Bill Smith might well look to sign someone like Mike Lowell to play third for the Twins on an everyday basis in '08.  There could also be a trade for a third baseman; the Twins have a number of starting pitchers they could deal.  The most likely to be delt would probably be Bonser.  The Twins might also give Watkins a look at third or maybe even Punto again (gasp!), but both seem highly unlikely.

There is also possible a need for another back-up infielder.  Luis Rodriguez is likely gone, so that leaves Watkins, Buscher (if not the 3B), and Alejandro Machado (if he's healthy).  The Twins seem unlikely to look elsewhere for a utility infielder due to the fact that they're drowning in the.  Some are even in the starting lineup.

The Twins could solve a lot of their lineup problems by re-signing Hunter.  However, if they don't, they'll have to sign someone else to play center.  Jason Tyner is not an everyday player.  Other free agent center fielders include Aaron Rowand, Andruw Jones, and Mike Cameron.  You might prefer Rowand or Jones if Hunter leaves, but let's face it, the most likely player for the Twins to sign there is Cameron.  The possibility of trading for a center fielder is far less likely because of the large market for them this offseason.

With CF solved by signing (or re-signing) someone, that still leaves a 5th outfielder or DH.  I really think that could be Garrett Jones.  He's shown a lot of power in the minors, and he can play the corner outfield and first base (to back-up Morneau).  Ron DL is going to be gone, maybe even from the majors.  Other options for another outfielder are Lew Ford and Josh Rabe, but they are not ideal.  There is also the possibility that the Twins could sign or trade for a bat simply to DH.  In my opinion, Mike Piazza would be a good choice except for his injury risk.  He could help Gardy get over his nervious 3rd catcher twitch as well.  The options for signing/acquiring a DH are really wide open, though.  So hopefully the Twins can find one.

At the end of all this, there's a 25-man, opening day roster in there somewhere.  There will probably be only a handful of new faces to Twins fans, but let's hope they are the right new faces.

At first glance, this coming offseason looks like the most difficult one so far for Terry Ryan as GM.  Torii Hunter is a free agent, and Johan Santana is going into his contract year.  There will be a lot of pressure to re-sign and extend these two.  The expectations for 2008 are high, and the fans/press realize that the Twins have a window of opportunity next season.

If you look a little deeper, however, you will notice that the Twins have other options if they should lose one or both star players.  Their talented, young pitching gives the rotation some hope should Santana depart.  -But I want to talk about the other possible key depatrure.  What can the Twins do if they are to lose Torii Hunter?  He's going to cost someone $15-16 million per year for 4-6 years.  In reality, the possibility of re-signing Sweet Cheeks might already be gone.  Where does Terry Ryan turn then?

Denard Span is not ready.  He hit .252 in AAA this year, and he needs to start next season in the minors and prove himself before even be given his first cup of coffee.  Jason Tyner is a good 4th outfielder, but giving him the everyday job in center is like giving Punto the everyday job at third.  OK, maybe not that bad, but you get the idea.  Anyway, the only real option for finding a new center fielder is looking outside the organization.

The option of a trade is always present, but for the sake of argument, let's concentrate on free agency.  There are actually several free agent center fielders that will be available.  Luckily, the market is pretty rich with them this year.  This might help push their cost dow a tad and avoid another Gary Matthews Jr situation.  Let's take a look at the options:

Darin Erstad - Age 33
Erstad hits and throws as a lefty.  He's very good in center field; he has 2 Gold Gloves there (+1 at 1B).  The problem with Erstad is that he's been injured for most of the past 2 seasons.  That's an indication that he may be wearing down with age and his career may be coming to an end.  If he's healthy, he can produce .285 Avg, 10 HR, 70 RBI.  If he's healthy.  He could also be another RonDL.  It should be noted that the White Sox have a $3.5 million option for him for 2008 that they really shouldn't and won't exercise.  His injury problems make him dirt cheap, so he'll probably fetch a 1-2 years at $1-2 million per year.

Corey Patterson - Age 28
Patterson bats from the left side of the plate and throws right-handed.  He's a decent outfielder, but not spectacular.  At the plate, he should give you a .270 Avg with 10-15 HR and 50-55 RBI.  He's having a very average year, and he's a very average Major Leaguer.  He'll probably cost $4-6 million a season over 2-3 years.

Mike Cameron - Age 34
Cameron is right-handed both hitting and throwing.  He's a very good in the field, being a 3-time Gold Glove winner.  Offensively, he should only produce for a .260 Avg with 20-25 HR and about 75 RBI.  It should also be noted that he is a very streaky hitter.  Think Jacque Jones from the right side of the plate.  He is having a pretty average season for his career, so there's no plus or minus to his value.  He'll likely cost $7-9 million per year for 2-3 years.

Aaron Rowand - Age 30
Rowand bats and throws right-handed.  He is an above average center-fielder, but he's not Gold Glove caliber.  Offensively, you can expect .285 Avg, 15-20 HR, 80 RBI.  He's currently having a career year as well, so his cost will be inflated.  He should cost someone $9-11 million per year for 3-4 years.

Andruw Jones - Age 30
Jones bats and throws R/R.  He is definitely a top-tier center fielder, a 9-time Gold Glover.  At the plate, he should give you .270, 30-35 HR, 100 RBI.  Andruw is actually having a very bad season for him, so he may be a bargain.  He'll probably fetch $10-12 million for 3-4 years.

Well, those are your free agent options (along with Hunter).  If I had my pick, I'd take Andruw Jones in a heart beat.  Unfortunately, any number of teams might decide to re-sign these players before they hit the open market.  That will probably happen with Jones, IMO.  Rowand would be acceptable, but he isn't the middle-of-the-order hitter that Torii and Andruw are.  Plus he's probably not the best option in terms of value for your dollar.  Patterson might be an passable option because of his youth, but only if the Twins add a serious bat at DH or 3B to replace Hunter.  Even then, it's still a downgrade.  I also don't really like Cameron because of his streakiness.  Erstad scares me, but he does have the possibility of being healthy all the sudden.  If that happens, the team that signs him would hit the jackpot.  I just don't think that will happen.

The end result here is that if Torii departs, you're most likely looking at a downgrade for the Twins.  Both defensively and offensively.  The good news is that there are plenty of free agent options to fill center field, but the Twins will absolutely have to use the extra cash to sign another hitter if that happens.

This season has been a tease.  Every time you think the Twins are out of it, they seem to stave off certain doom.  Then when you think they can jump back into the middle of the race, the Twins get knocked back.  They lose 2 of 3 to Seattle, then they sweep a 4-game series in Baltimore.  Back and forth, back and forth.  Well, today we are on the "forth" part of that swing.  We are 5 1/2 games back in the AL Central with 5 weeks to play in the season.  Hope is still there, faint as ever.

Over the next week and a half, the Twins play their final 6 games of the season against the Indians.  3 in Cleveland, and then after a 4-game series hosting the Roayls, 3 against the Tribe at the Metrodome.  If the Twins play good baseball over the next 10 days, they will be right in the middle of a 3-way race for the AL Central crown.  If they tank, their chances at the postseason will evaporate.  It seems ridicules that after all the offensive woes that the Twins have gone through, they can still be a factor in September.

The good news for Twins fans is that Johan Santana is slated to make starts in both series.  The bad news is that C.C. Sabathia will do the same thing.  It's pretty obvious that the Twins need to win at least 4 of these 6 games.  We have to make up ground right now.  If the Twins can also pick up a half game while playing the Roayls over the weekend, that would put them 3 games back with 3 1/2 weeks to play.

It should also be noted that exactly half of the games left on the Twins' schedule are against teams that are currently 14 games below .500 or worse.  The Twins have 7 games left against the Royals, 6 vs the White Sox, and 3 against Texas.  So when the Twins aren't playing the Indians and Tigers, almost all the rest of their games this season are against the league's bottom-dwellers.  The exception is the final 4-game series of the regular season in Boston.  Anyway, the point I'm trying to make here is that the Twins still control their own destiny for the most part.

So now, after washing my hands of my favorite team when they dropped the first 2 at home against Seattle, I am again going to emotionally invest myself in the outcome of each game.  For now.  Why?  Am I a glutton for punishment and disappointment?  Maybe.  -But I think it's more like the girl that you're crazy about who hurts you.  At first you're extremely upset, you vow to never take her back, and you set it in your mind that you don't need her.  However, in the end it doesn't matter.  You will always give it another chance.

All this talk surrounding the home run record being "broken" by Bonds has got me thinking about baseball records.  At one time, Ruth's 714 was considered untouchable.  Now, Bonds's record seems likely to be broken in about 5-10 years by A-Rod.  Baseball has several "unbreakable" records, but I was wondering which one is the most unbreakable.  Let's examine some of them...

Joe DiMaggio - 56-Game Hitting Streak
2nd Place: Willie Keeler with a 45-Game Streak

This is largely considered one of the most unbreakable records in baseball.  However, when I look at the list, I don't see it as a front-runner.  The fact is that while no one else has a 50 game streak, 5 other players have a 40-game streak or longer.  No one has been within 10 of DiMaggio, but several are within 15.  As recently as last season, Jimmy Rollins had a 38-game streak.  [NOTE: Luis Castillo is tied for 11th with a 35-game streak he had in 2002 with the Marlins].  This certainly is a very tough record to ever break, but in my opinion, it's not the toughest.

Nolan Ryan - 5714 Career Strikeouts
2nd Place: Roger Clemens with 4653

Well, this one's a doozy.  Roger Clemens has had a long, dominating career, and he's still more then 1000 K's short.  Randy Johnson might still pass Clemens, and both might close to within 1000 before it's all said and done, but in the era of 5-man pitching staffs, this record is very safe.

Pete Rose - 4256 Career Hits
2nd Place: Ty Cobb with 4191

Here we have a mountain of a record.  4,000 hits is a ridicules mark to reach.  Only 2 players have achieved it.  This record stands as potentially unbreakable because of the amount of longevity needed to accomplish it.  Still, the fact that Rose is only 65 hits above Cobb lends one to believe that someone else will come along that will reach the 4000 hit plateau.  -And with the advancements in sports medicine that we have today, that next person just might break the record.  IMO, this record is one of the weaker ones on the list.  [NOTE: Hank Aaron is 3rd on the all-time hits list with 3771.  To put that into perspective, Bonds has only 2915 hits.  Anyone who calls Bonds the best hitter ever is an idiot.  Hammerin' Hank is very under-appreciated.]

Cy Young - 517 Career Wins
2nd Place: Walter Johnson with 411

This one gets my vote.  Absolutely untouchable.  Cy leads this category by 106 wins!  When we're talking about the possibility of no pitcher ever reaching 300 again because of the 5-man rotation, 500 seems downright silly.

Henry Aaron - 2297 Career RBI
2nd Place: Babe Ruth with 2213

At first glance, this seems rock solid.  However, after thinking about it more and looking at the list, it feels weaker.  Only 2 players in the modern era have eclipsed 2000 RBI, and Aaron has almost 2300.  Bonds will be the third to reach 2000, but I doubt that he'll come close to Aaron.  However, this record also falls under the "Lookout for A-Rod" umbrella.  Rodriguez will pass 1500 next season.  In the end, it will likely fall, and this record is probably the flimsiest on my list.

Ricky Henderson - 1406 Stolen Bases
2nd Place: Lou Brock with 938

Well, here we have a strong sleeper.  No one thinks about the stolen base record as "hallowed."  At least not nearly as much as most of the other records on this list.  Still, Ricky Henderson's record is astonishing.  He leads in the category by 468.  Here's a better way of putting it:  He as 1.5 times as many stolen bases as the next player on the list.  That's almost 50% more.  The sheer gap between Henderson and everyone else should make this a very "unbreakable" record.

Well, let the discussion begin on which record is the least likely to be broken.  Personally, I'd put Cy Young's 517 wins first, and Ricky Henderson's 1406 Stolen Bases second.  Also, please let me know if I missed any untouchable records that should be included in the discussion.

Do you feel that?  It's the heat of the summer.  It feels good... like domination.  It reminds me of summers past, of unhittableness, of bitches sat down, and of regular Cy Young runs.  Yes, it is a good feeling.  It makes me want to attend every home game he toes the rubber.  -Because it is now the time that you might see something special.

At the beginning of the month, I remember watching Baseball Tonight.  They were discussing what was "wrong" with Johan.  Karl Ravage, I think, said something like "Someone is going to win a Cy Young in the American League this year, and his name won't be Santana."  I chuckled.

I'm betting that Johan did too.  He has done nothing but dominate over his last 4 starts.  During that streach, he has thrown 29 innings and allowed a grand total of 5 earned runs.  That's a 1.55 ERA.  He's 3-1 in those starts, but he should be 4-0.  True, he hasn't been racking up the huge strikeout numbers yet (he's K'd only 23 in those 29 innings), but everything else is vintage Johan.

Really, is this a suprise?  Not to Twins fans who have watched this happen about the same time every year.  It's like clockwork.  Johan gets 75-80 innings under his belt, and then the world trembles in fear.

Yesterday, Baseball Tonight was talking about Johan again.  They were talking about how dominant he has been lately.  They were singing his praises again.  Wow.  What a suprise.  Something tells me we'll be hearing it more and more over the next 3+ months.  -And in late September they'll be talking about a probable third Cy Young Award.

I was going to post this as a comment to Jesse's "DH Crisis" featured article, but oh how long it grew.  This deserves it's own diary...

Anyway, I think that Ubelmann was the one who suggested this first here, but I really do think that the answer is a trade with the Red Sox, sending them Rincon for Wily Mo Pena.  It makes sense for several reasons...

1. Wily Mo deserves to get a shot at a starting DH role, but has never really been given the chance.  He was in the NL with Cincinnati for a few years (no DH), and now he is stuck behind some "Papi" guy in Boston (you may have heard of him).  He's also stuck behind some "Manny" guy in left field.  His lack of defensive prowess has kept him from ever getting even 350 AB's in a season.  Obviously, that wouldn't be an issue at DH.  He has a ton of power, but he's not much for getting on base.  Here's his career AVG/OBP/SLG: .259/.314/.474.  He's still developing and could turn into a consistent 30 HR, 100 RBI guy.

2. He's 25 years old, and he's not too expensive.  I think he's making $1.875 mil this year (according to ESPN.com).  That's less then Rincon's $2 mil, so don't worry about our payroll.  As I stated above, he has the potential to be a real solid DH for the future.  -And because of his lack of experience, he wouldn't be very expensive to re-sign.

3. If you consider the good chance that the Twins will lose Hunter after the season, the Twins will be needing a right-handed power bat anyway.  Span might end up being a good defensive center fielder, but he won't slug.  The Twins will miss his bat behind Morneau if/when he leaves.  No I'm not convinced Hunter's gone yet, but you have to consider the possibility if you're Terry Ryan.

4. Rincon's stock is fading with the Twins, but he does still have a lot of value.  Let's remember that Rincon has shown over a 3 year period that he can be a top set-up guy.  That's real attractive to a team looking for help in the pen.  Neshek and Guerrier are also rising stars, and that makes Rincon expendable.  The Twins probably also believe that Glen Perkins and/or Jason Miller are ready to be a second lefty and long man in the bullpen.  Our bullpen may seem a bit thin now with injuries, but (except for Crain) people are getting healthy and we do have a great 7th-8th-9th inning combo plus a LOOGY.  That's not even including Rincon.

The more I think about this, the more I think this could be the perfect trade.  For the Twins, this trade would essentially be giving up a year and a half of Juan Rincon (they wouldn't re-sign him) for a young bat that could turn out to be a solid, everyday DH at best.  At worst, he'd be a powerful pinch-hitter (something we also need).  For the Red Sox, they'd be giving up a power-heavy pinch-hitter (who is stuck behind better hitters) for a proven set-up man (which they need).

There are a few drawbacks, though.  The Red Sox might want to keep him in case Manny does depart.    They might see potential to replace Ramirez's bat with Pena's pull-heavy swing aimed at the Green Monster (though Wily Mo couldn't fill his shoes).  Boston might also think that Rincon's best days are behind him.  He is having an off year.  Perhaps Boston could be wary that they would be getting a lemon.

If I were Terry Ryan, I would be calling Theo Epstein on a regular basis and asking him what the Twins need to throw in to get this deal done.  Lew Ford?  Take him.  I'd even throw in Carmen Cali or Julio DePaula (but not both).  Better yet: Scott Baker.  The bottom line is that this proposed deal makes a lot of sense for the Twins, and if Boston is looking to put a shotgun blast in the undead/zombie Yankees (and go for another World Series this year), it probably makes sense for the Red Sox as well.

The more I think about it, the more I think the Twins should re-sign Lius Castillo.  It has been sort of a forgone conclusion in the Twins blogosphere that Castillo will not be a Twin come 2008.  He's a free agent, and there's a young speedster named Alexi Casilla that will be ready to take his place next season.

But should we dismiss him so easily?  He's been one of the best leadoff hitters in baseball as a Twin.  He draws walks, he works deep into counts, he can steal bases, and he gets more infield hits then Ichiro on caffeine pills.  He's the one "piranha" who you can count on to use the piranha attack consistently and effectively.

Then there's his defense.  His 143 game errorless streak that just ended a week ago was a Major League Record for second basemen.  Go back and read that last sentence again.  How he didn't win a Gold Glove again last season, I'll never understand.  When you consider both sides of his play, it should be obvious that he is one of the best and most valuable second basemen in all of baseball.

It's not re-signing like Castillo would break the bank either.  A 2-year, $11 million contract could probably keep him.  Perhaps even a 1-year, $6 million contract would.  If you are counting Hunter as gone in 2008, the Twins could afford to work out a contract with Castillo.

Granted, Alexi Casilla's ability is going to eventually demand a full time spot in the lineup.  -But there's no reason that his position couldn't be shortstop.  We really don't know if Bartlett is good enough to deserve to start in the long term.  Yes, he had a good offensive season last year, but that was only one good season.  You know who else has had exactly one good season at the plate?  Nick Punto and Lew Ford.  I wouldn't and don't think either of them should be playing on an everyday basis.

So far this season, Bartlett is reminding me of Luis Rivas's futility at the plate as a middle infielder.  OK, maybe not that terrible, but he's certainly been bad.  Bad enough to allow Casilla to challenge his job next spring?  Maybe.  Perhaps the two of them could even platoon.  At the very least, keeping Castillo would provide insurance that you will likely get good production from BOTH of your middle infielders in 2008.

Obviously if Bartlett turns it around in the second half, things could change.  Castillo is getting older, and his batting average and on-base percentage will begin to dip as he is less able to beat out infield hits.  However, he's not yet past his prime.  For what he gives the Twins at the cost of his salary, there's no reason to think that the Twins should just let him walk away.

Has anyone else noticed the person in a full Elmo costume (from Sesame Street) at all the Twins home games?  He/she always sits in the left field corner, first row, just inside the foul pole.

I used to be confused by Elmo, but now I'm warming to him.  I actually saw Elmo hanging out the passenger window of a car before the game tonight, and I would now like to declare the Elmo costume officially awesome.  Officially.

There have been a lot of recognizable fans over the years like the Magic Number Guy and the guy who always wore an over-sized Homer Hanky poncho.  Remember the small smattering LaTroy Hawkins fan club people who would always sit all by themselves like 20 rows up in the upper deck down the right field line?

I don't really know where I'm going with this...  I just wanted to talk about memorable fans people would always see around the ballpark.  Is anyone here a potentially memorable fan?

I think it's about time to give that thing a yank.  While Sidney didn't get hammered again tonight, I think it's safe to day that it was another sub-par performance.  He was in trouble a lot, and he made key mistakes to the Royals' two best hitters.  Through 4 starts, his numbers look like this:

W-L    IP    H    R   ER  HR  BB    K   WHIP   BAA
1-3   21.1  35  20   20   6    9    12    2.06   .361

Ugh.  Ponson's next scheduled day to start would be Monday.  Luckily, the Twins have that day off.  I see no reason not to skip him.  The next day the Twins will need a fifth starter will be Saturday, May 5th when they host the Red Sox.

In my opinion, Sir Sidney must be on thin ice with cracks forming beneath his feet at this point.  The Twins have a few options right now, actually.  They could cut him now, and start Perkins, Guerrier, or maybe Slowey on May 5th (Garza hasn't found a groove yet).  Or the Twins could send Perkins down when Cirillo comes back and give Ponson the start on May 5th.  The Twins (knowing them well) might even decide to let Ponson pitch on May 1st.

In my opinion/prediction the Twins will let him have one or two bad starts before cutting him.  By then, it would be mid-May and someone in AAA (probably Slowey at this point) will be ready to get a shot at the 5th spot in the rotation.  It seems like a decent plan to me, even though the Pessimistic Twins Fan in me wants him driven out of town by an angry mob tonight.

Admittedly, this is a geek-out post...

We all know that Johan is the Man-tana.  He's widely considered the best pitcher in baseball, so it comes as no surprise to the national media that he is off to a torrid start.  Ho-hum.  Another day at the office.

But loyal Twins fans will take more notice here.  The fact is that Santana is normally human in the first month or two of the season.  He doesn't really heat up until the weather does.  Down the stretch, he's akin to a guy named Koufax.  Early on, however, he's just another good pitcher.

As far as I can tell, the turning point is usually June 1st.  After that, he's untouchable.  I have only researched his W-L totals as a starter; perhaps someone here can look more deeply into all his pitching stats before and after June 1st to see if the rest of the numbers support my theory.  Anyway, here's his record before and after June 1st for the last 4 seasons:

Year    April-May       June-September     Full Season

2003    2-1(bullpen)   10-2                      12-3
2004    2-3                18-3(!)                  20-6
2005    6-2                10-5                      16-7
2006    4-4                15-2                      19-6

First of all, Johan got absolutely no run support in the second half of the '05 season.  I think we'll all agree that he could easily have picked up 4 or 5 more wins with even a semi-productive lineup.  Even without the support in 2005, he has averaged 12 wins a year after May.  If you take only the last 3 years (once he became the Man-tana), he has averaged 14 wins after May.  Again, that's with no support in '05.  What do I take from this?  Well, with our lineup as it is today, I think you can count on 14 or 15 wins for Johan from June through September as long as he stays healthy.

Santana is currently 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA.  So far this April, he's been pitching like he usually does later in the year.  Now the fun part...  The way I figure it, if Santana wins 3 more games before June 1st (giving him 6 wins), he'll most likely win 20+ this season.

A month ago in Ubelmann's Community Projection for Santana, some people were guessing 22-23 wins for Johan.  I believe someone even suggested the possibility of 25.  At the time, I dismissed the idea because "it's impossible to win 25 in today's game."  Right now, I'm not so sure.  Certainly the only one who could do it is Santana.  But a pitcher only gets 33 or 34 starts a year if healthy.  Winning 25 would mean NOT WINNING only 8 or 9 games all season long.  However, if Santana has 8+ wins on June 1st, it will be within reach.

It might not happen this year, but if does win 25, I believe he will win the AL MVP.  He will also immediately enter the discussion of the very best south paws ever to play the game.  I for one will be trying like crazy to make it to every home start of his this year.  He might be embarking on a season for the ages.

Two weeks into the season, things are much better then they were at this time last year.  The Twins have a winning record, and Tony Batista is nowhere to be found.  I realize that this is only 7.4% of the season, but what's an April posting without overreaction?  To accomplish this on both sides, I decided to write a conversation script that basically sums up argument that the Pessimistic Twins Fan and the Optimistic Twins Fan in my head are currently having.

Continue reading this post »

This sort of extends from cmath's featured post about how the Twins are underestimated by the mainstream media/fans.  Only, I want to focus on one aspect: The Bullpen.  How it's changing, and how it can effect a game.  Especially for the Twins.

The Twins bullpen has outperformed it's talent for about 5 years now.  Even before Nathan, Crain, etc.  Gardy, Andy, and TR are all together with the focus on the bullpen.  I think it's safe to say that Eddie and Hawkins pitched above themselves in '02 and '03.  Remember Tony Fiore?  You can even argue that Romero's success was a result of the way the Twins handle their pen.  Same with Reyes last year.

The bullpen is becoming more and more important to a team's success every year.  I think it's not long until you see 12-13 man bullpens become the norm.  Middle relievers and long men are even more valuable then teams now consider them, IMO.  The SABR philosophy even considers your first reliever the most important to your success.  In today's game, your bullpen also effects the game more then any 1 starting pitcher because your bullpen pitches in nearly every single game.

Consider the Twins in their current position.  With 3 potentially shaky starters, it would greatly benefit the Twins if they could have another Guerrier-ish arm.  Almost as much as a different starter.  You could get to the point where you only have to ask for 5 innings from the back end of your rotation because you'd have spot starters ready to plug holes at any time.  -And you wouldn't have to burn your late inning arms early.

You figure that you're going to get 4 innings a week from each of your 2 long relievers.  You can have them extend 5 inning starts to your set up men without much of a drop off.  Especially when you consider guys like Silva, Ortiz, and Ponson are the starters.

Basically, my opinion is that you can get away with a sub-par back end of the rotation if you have a second reliable long reliever.  -And it's easier to get a reliable long reliever then a reliable starter.  For the Twins, at least.

With the current state of 5-man rotations and climbing payrolls, I think the long relief role will become more and more important for teams that cannot afford to buy solid starting pitchers.  2 solid long relievers + 2 iffy starters will cost your team less then 2 proven starters + 1 throw-away long man.

I attended tonight's game, and I thought I'd post some of my thoughts the day after everyone usually weighs in.

I thought it would be fun to make some "stick your neck out" predictions about the 2007 season.  I don't really think all of these will come true, but I do think that a few probably will.  Anyway, here are my bold predictions...

1. Barry Bonds will not break Henry Aaron's home run record this year.
This will be uber-hyped, but he will get hurt less then 10 homers shy of Hammerin' Hank.  There will be a ton of controversary following the 2007 reguarding Bonds's decision to come back in 2008 solely to break the record.  The Giants will be forced to decide if they want to pay $20 mil for a part time player in '08.

2. The Milwaukee Brewers will become the suprise team of 2007 and win the NL Central.
Ben Sheets (the Brewers' version of Radke) will stay healthy all year and have a career season.  The Brew-Crew will score a ton of runs with Ricky Weeks, Bill Hall, and Prince Fielder leading the charge.

3. The White Sox will finish below .500.
If the Indians are as good as people think they can be, this is possible.  I'm not talking a terrible record here.  Like 80-82 or 79-83.

4. Miguel Cabrera will be the NL MVP.
That pretty much says it.  His numbers will look a lot like Morneau's last year.  .320, 35 HR, 130 RBI.  He's 23.  Within a couple of years, people will begin to question if Pujols is still the best player in the game.

5. The Seattle Mariners will finish above .500.
King Felix will dominate in a weak division, and Seattle will have at least 82 wins.

6. The Twins will trade Luis Castillo mid-season to make room for Alexi Castilla.
Castilla is going to light up AAA.  His speed combined with his fantastic base stealing will force the Twins to give him a shot at 2nd base on the Major League roster.  That combined with the looming free angency for Castillo will convince the Twins to trade Luis for a possible key addition for the pennant race.

7. An All-Star Slugger will be suspended for steroid use.
Several players have been caught doping over the past few years, but the only real power hitter to be suspended was Rafael Palmeiro.  That will change as a current top slugger will exposed as a steroid user, forever tarnishing his career.

Well, there you go.  That seems like enough to stir the pot.  Which ones (if any) will come true?  Feel free to add any bold predictions of your own to the conversation.