Another week, another instance in which I was Nostradamus-esque in identifying the key statistical matchups. As you'll see in today's post, a dominating performance the likes of which we saw on Monday night occurs primarily via a corresponding domination of key matchups. In other words, if you ever doubted that football is a game of matchups, the 49ers bludgeoning of the Cardinals was a prime example of why it's true.

TEAM MATCHUP #1: CARDINALS OFFENSIVE TREND

In the preview post, I told you that, going into the game, ARI was 7-0 when they had a Game OFF DVOA above 30%. The implication was that a key part of beating ARI was for the Niners' DEF to keep them below that threshold. Well, since it's so late in the week already, I have access to the actual Game DVOAs, and the Niners held "the straw that stirs ARI's drink" to just a tad bit below 30%: how does -81.8% (!!!) sound? When an OFF is over 110% less efficient than they need to be to win, they're not just going to lose. They're going to get annihilated; and that's exactly what happened to the Cardinals on Monday night.

After the jump, more stats showing the 49ers' recipe for Monday Night Football victory...

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AUTHOR'S NOTE: The time I usually devote to team and players stats was instead devoted last week to this very special article I've put together with the help of Aaron Schatz from Football Outsiders (FO). He provided the individual stats for Alex Smith and Shaun Hill, and I did the writing, but we're both in general agreement about what the stats say as they relate to Smith and the shotgun. If you want to show your appreciation for Aaron's entirely unobligated attention to the whims of our blog, and have an interest in accessing FO's statistical database for yourself, head over to his site and get the premium membership. Obviously, I highly recommend it.

Besides whether or not Mike Nolan was going to make it through an entire press conference without saying, "look it," the fate of Alex Smith has been the hottest topic of Niner debate over the past 5 years. I don't need to recap all the gory details, but suffice it to say that he's a polarizing figure among Niner fans. My goal for this post is not to settle the debate. Rather, what I'd like to do here is answer a Dennis-Green-esque question about Smith: Is he who we thought he was?

Whether you love him or hate him, and whether you think he's the 49ers' "QB of the future" or not, there's no denying that what we've seen from Smith this season constitutes a remarkable turnaround for a guy who, just 9 months ago, was in serious danger of being released. In this post, my intention is to show - as crisply and clearly as possible - what the statistics say about the reason(s) for his resurrection. I know the guy's already married and all, but, as you'll see, this season has been something of a shotgun wedding for Smith.

A ROCKY RELATIONSHIP

There's really no mistaking the fact that Smith's career has been seriously hampered by injury. Indeed, he's only had 2 seasons in which he was actually healthy: 2006 and 2009. So, the first clue about the reason for his renaissance is that he's actually healthy. To drive the point home, here's a table showing the 49ers' Pass OFF DVOA for games since 2005 that Smith did not play, games he played while coming off of an injury, and games he played while totally healthy (I've excluded 5 games in which multiple QBs played):

As you can see from this table, the 49ers' pass OFF has been considerably better in games when Smith is healthy when compared to games in which he didn't play or played coming off of an injury. What's most interesting to me is that, despite the ridiculously small sample size for "Smith coming off injury," the 58.1% difference is statistically significant within 95% certainty. In other words, it's beyond a reasonable statistical doubt that the Niners' OFF plays better when Smith is healthy.

After the jump, I'll show why health is just one of many things that are the same between 2006 and 2009, and therefore can't explain why Smith is better in 2009 than 2006. And, of course, I'll offer my suggestion for what CAN explain it (See story title)...

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AUTHOR'S NOTE: Sorry for no team and player rankings posts this past week. I've been working on a special article that will appear on NN in a few hours. For now, here's the matchup preview to prep you for tonight's game.

This one's going to be short and sweet, everyone. Beating the Cardinals isn't rocket science (See "Pass, Defend the"), so - not surprisingly - most of the important statistical matchups are not rocket science either. What made this matchup analysis a tad difficult is that there are several pass-defending game situations in which both the Cardinals' OFF and the 49ers' DEF are really good. So this game might end up coming down to a few strength vs. strength matchups rather than the strength vs. weakness matchups I typically present in the preview post.

Away we go...

TEAM MATCHUP #1: CARDINALS OFFENSIVE TREND

In a file-under-"Duh" moment, this week's "opponent wins when they have performance X" matchup has to do with the ARI pass OFF. Here's a chart showing their game performances thus far this season:

Aside from one exception, the Cardinals' wins and losses this season have depended on a Pass OFF DVOA for the game of 30.0%. If they're over that threshold, they're 7-0; under that threshold, and their 1-4. However, as I said, we don't really need statistics to tell us that slowing down ARI's pass OFF gives the 49ers' the best chance of winning this week's game. But, it's not just the win/loss trend that matters...

After the jump, more stats showing the 49ers' recipe for Monday Night Football victory... 

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AUTHOR'S NOTE: If you're interested, here is my statistical matchup review of the Seahawks game.

Welcome back for this week's look at how the 49ers are doing according to Mike Singletary's Formula for Success. For those that don't remember Singletary's Formula for Success, here it is:

1. Total Ball Security
2. Execute
3. Dominate the Trenches
4. Create Good Field Position
5. Finish

The first thing I'll say is, "Don't worry. This isn't another equation-heavy measurement statistics article." OK. With that out of the way - and most of you still around - I'll repeat that, given the large sample sizes at this point in the season, don't expect too much fluctuation in any of the Formula-related stats I present today. Instead, it's most important to focus on the changes in these stats as compared to last week.

In today's post, I'll first present updated Adjusted BS Rates - along with their components - for each NFL team. Then, as I did last week, I'll use one gigantic table to present all of the stats that measure the other 4 ingredients of Singletary's Formula for Success. Of course, as has been the case of late, I'll provide some brief commentary along the way

After the jump, a pile of BS followed by a heaping helping of formula ingredients...

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The theme for today's matchup review post, similar to the theme of recent 49er teams, is "what could have been." In 2006, the Niners beat the division-leading Seahawks to pull within 1 game of the division lead at 5-5. They had a pretty favorable stretch of upcoming games against the 4-6 Rams, 6-4 Saints, and 4-6 Packers, and we got all excited. Unfortunately, they proceeded to lose all 3 of those games, only to beat the Seahawks again in Week 15 to revive our hopes once more. What happens next? As the Seahawks are in the midst of losing to the 12-2 Chargers, the Niners lay an absolute egg against the 4-10 (!!!) Cardinals to kick us in the junk one more time for good measure.

Sound familiar? This season, the Niners have brought out their junk-kicking boots once again, with their wins coming when they're seemingly out of the playoff picture, and their losses coming when they're firmly within the picture frame. This Sunday's loss was, ala the Cardinals' game in 2006, the final for-good-measure display of their junk-kicking skills.

What does this have to do with the matchup review? Well, as you'll see, this was a game that the 49ers should have won easily. The loss defied more than just statistics; it defied logic altogether. Some matchup results ended up in perfect accordance with what they needed to accomplish, and yet they still lost. In other matchups, they turned stone-cold, lead-pipe advantages into performances befitting the Keystone Kops. All in all, if you want to understand the anatomy of a kick in the junk, this Sunday's matchup with the Seahawks helps explain why 49er teams of recent vintage have continually given us their best Sisyphus impression.

Ladies and gentlemen, grab your barf bags as I present this week's statistical matchup review alternately titled, How to Lose Games and Influence Digestion.

TEAM MATCHUP #1: SEAHAWKS DEFENSIVE TREND

Before the game, I displayed a chart showing that, without fail, the Seahawks' wins and losses through 11 games had a 1-to-1 dependency on their DEF DVOA for the game: above average = Seahawks win; below average = Seahawks loss. Well, wouldn't you know it, but the 49ers decided to play the role of bedside nurse once again, giving their opponent exactly what ails them. In the case of the SEA game, it turns out that the Niners lost despite SEA having a below-average Game DEF DVOA of 24.5%; their 3rd-worst Game DEF DVOA of the season!

So basically, the Seahawks DEF sucked just about as bad as they were supposed to suck (if not worse), and yet the 49ers couldn't do what every other team that's encountered said death-spiraling Seahawk DEF has done: win the damn game. What makes matters even worse - and more odds-defying - is that the Niners' had an above-average Game OFF DVOA of 9.5%; their 3rd-best Game OFF DVOA of the season! Oh, and by the way, just for kicks, they also had an above-average Game DEF DVOA of -8.1%. Tell most any NFL team that they're going to have one of their best days on OFF, and their 4-7 opponent, whose losses occur when they play bad DEF, is going to have one of their worst days on DEF, and that team is going to tell you that an ass-whooping is what they're about to dish out. Behold the (2006 and) 2009 49ers: not most any NFL team.

After the jump, I'll make you reach for the Pepto... 

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Fooch's Note: Don't forget to join us in today's first game thread.

Unlike last week, a win today is going to be a team effort. Don't have a lot of time here, so I won't waste any time telling you that, by reading this, you're getting a point-by-point foreshadowing of what you're going to watch about an hour from now. Let's get going.

TEAM MATCHUP #1: SEAHAWKS DEFENSIVE TREND

Last week, I told you it was the Jaguars' OFF that was their catalyst to victory. This week, it's exactly the opposite. Here's a chart showing how the Seahawks' DEF has performed in its wins and losses:

The trend here is as straightforward as it gets. When SEA's DEF plays above average, they win. When their DEF plays below average, they lose. Plain and simple. So what are chances that SEA's DEF is going to play above average today? Well, here are two stats for you that should tell you what I'm thinking: (a) The 49ers' OFF is 13.6% better on the road than at home; and (b) The Seahawks' DEF is 27.7% worse at home than on the road. If the past is prologue, this bodes well for the Niners. It's up to their OFF to exploit this matchup advantage.

After the jump, I'll present a few more matchups that seem to suggest this is a very winnable game for our San Francisco 49ers...

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Yesterday, I noted some pretty promising statistical improvements for the 49ers' OFF. Today, we'll see whether stats and rankings for the Niners' offensive players have also improved as one would expect; or perhaps the whole is greater than the sum of its parts? To this end, I'll be adding the same kind of change stats I've started presenting in my other posts this week. Again, it's the direction of change, not necessarily its magnitude, that's more important from my perspective.

This week, QBs need a total of at least 90 passes to qualify as having valid FO stats, RBs need at least 96 carries, WRs need at least 38 targets, and TEs need at least 18 targets. Therefore, the players I'll be breaking down this week are Alex Smith, Frank Gore, Michael Crabtree, Josh Morgan, and Vernon Davis. I'll also, of course, be presenting FO stats for the OL, the defensive front 7 (DF7), and the secondary.

QUARTERBACKS

Here are Smith's stats through 208 passes this season (bold = ranked 8th or better [top 25% of starters]; italics = ranked 25th or worse [bottom 25% of starters]):

As you can see, the only things that have showed any meaningful improvement are Smith's unadjusted stats, YAR/P and VOA. Not surprisingly, the 49ers' unadjusted OFF Pass VOA is what showed meaningful improvement among their team stats. Obviously, Smith threw every pass against the Jaguars, so this is kind of a "duh" finding. However, the important point is that Smith and the Niners had a productive passing attack against JAX, but more than just "productive" is what was expected against the 31st-ranked JAX pass DEF. Nevertheless, you have to crawl before you walk, so Smith and the Niners' pass OFF need to pass well against bad pass DEFs before he/they can start passing well against good DEFs.

After the jump, I'll present and discuss the rest of the stats ...

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Welcome back for another installment of my weekly look at the 49ers' team stats and rankings according to Football Outsiders' (FO's) DVOA stat.* As I said in my Formula for Success post, the sample sizes are getting so large now that we shouldn't expect big fluctuations in the Niners' DVOAs (there is one exception this week, though). Nevertheless, the direction of week-to-week change is still informative, so I'll focus most of my commentary on that.

Speaking of commentary, I think that, over the past few weeks, I've provided just about every possible big-picture opinion about the 2009 49ers that I possibly can; with most of my opinions being about the OFF. Thankfully, the OFF seems to have addressed almost every one of my concerns. More shotgun? Check. More passing? Check. More downfield passing? Check. More 1st-quarter passing? Check. Therefore, I think it's time for me to pretty much shut my mouth. In this post, I'm just going to present the stats, and keep my comments very brief. I'll leave it to you guys to discuss any general (or specific) topics on the comments section.

OFFENSIVE RANKINGS - OVERALL

Here' how the offensive DVOA and VOA rankings look overall and by type of play, as well as how they've changed from last week (bold = top 8 in the NFL; italics = bottom 8):

The 49ers' pass OFF is now an above average unit according to VOA, which is not adjusted for opponent. In addition, their overall OFF is getting closer and closer to having their heads back above water. At these levels, the 2009 OFF is playing its most efficiently - irrespective of opponent - since 2003. That's saying something.

After the jump, I'll present the rest of the team stats and rankings. There aren't many changes from last week, but the few that exist bode well for the Niners' stretch run...

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AUTHOR'S NOTE: Sorry for the delay in getting this posted. Below, you'll understand why it's a day late.

Welcome back for this week's look at how the 49ers are doing according to Mike Singletary's Formula for Success. For those that don't remember Singletary's Formula for Success, here it is:

1. Total Ball Security
2. Execute
3. Dominate the Trenches
4. Create Good Field Position
5. Finish

The major takeaways form last week's post were that (a) the 49ers are an average team based on the formula, and (b) the formula itself is a pretty reliable indicator of the 49ers' record. Given that the play-by-play sample sizes are so large now, we shouldn't expect much statistical fluctuation from game to game. Nevertheless, the directions in which these stats change (i.e., for better or worse) can tell us something about the progress of our beloved team when it comes to doing the things that their coach views as most crucial for winning. But I'll get to that stuff later.

The focus of today's post emerged from some thinking I did about the two stats I used last week to measure Total Ball Security: Fumbles and Interceptions. In my haste to put the post together, I didn't really sit down and fully contemplate whether these were the best stats I could use. From reading Football Outsiders and other sources, I already knew that Fumbles is a much better stat than Fumbles Lost because the recovery of a fumble is more about luck and less about skill. But honestly, aside from relying on this basic knowledge, I used Fumbles and Interceptions because they were the most (and only ones) readily available.

Since then, I've searched around the internet trying to find more - I guess what you'd call - advanced stats related to the ability of an NFL team to hold onto the ball. Or, in the language of Singletary's Formula for Success, the ability of an NFL team to achieve total ball security. Not surprisingly, this was a fruitless search. As far as I can tell, no one's made a public attempt to develop such a statistic.

Well, consider yourselves lucky. Based on the premises that (a) Total Ball Security is an ingredient in Singletary's Formula for Success, (b) I'm writing a weekly post about this formula, and (c) no one else seems to have come up with a good measure for this specific ingredient, I've come to the conclusion that I'm the person I've been waiting for.

Therefore, in today's Formula for Success post, I'm going to introduce a new stat, which I'll call Adjusted Ball Security Rate, aka Adjusted BS Rate. Don't worry. I've reported the rest of the Formula's stats at the end of the post. But the major purposes of this post will be to give you my rationale behind Adjusted BR rate, tell you the methods I used to develop Adjusted BS Rate, and present some evidence showing you that Total Ball Security, as measured by Adjusted BS rate, is - as Singletary clearly believes - directly associated with winning in the NFL.

After the jump, I'll unveil my newly minted Niners Nation special, Adjusted BS Rate...

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Before I begin the matchup review, I just want to make a little bit of an editorial comment that seems pretty relevant in lieu of the past couple of weeks...

Some of you have been kind enough to give me kudos for practically writing a game recap before the game was even played the last 2 weeks. For sure, I've looked like Nostradamus with a blogging platform. However, I have to tell you, I'm reluctant to take much credit because it was the stats - not my wisdom - that resulted in my admittedly eerie accuracy.

What I will take credit for - and this is where I'd like to editorialize - is understanding that the stats, by themselves, are meaningless without proper application. Like "guns don't kill people, people kill people," the same can be said for statistics: "stats don't lie to people, people lie to people." Keep in mind that, each week, I'm looking at about 135 statistical matchups for the Niner game, almost all of which suggest one team has an advantage over the other. For instance, I could have easily told you last week that the Niners had an advantage on DEF given that JAX's OFF DVOA between the 40s was ranked 23rd, whereas SF's DEF DVOA between the 40s was ranked 5th. But what meaning would that have had? I'd say pretty much none. Sure they're two stats that are saying something, but what practical importance would they have had on the game as it was played? How could the 49ers have possibly exploited that matchup? By forcing JAX's OFF into the middle of the field? I mean, what's the DEF going to do? Let JAX gain yards when backed up deep in their own end just so they get them into their sweet spot?

So my point here is that the key to statistical analysis is in the practical application. The stats are just numbers; it takes the interpretation of a human being to prevent them from becoming lies. In general, interpretation is about looking at the stats, and seeing how applicable they are to the real world. In football, it's about viewing stats through the lens of Xs and Os, player skill sets, game plans, and everything else one would consider non-statistical.

In the context of game matchups, interpretation is about looking at each individual statistical matchup, and then determining whether there's a likelihood that a given pattern is going to have an effect on the actual game we're previewing. It's about detecting patterns of advantageous and disadvantageous matchups, asking oneself whether each team's wins and losses have been characterized by a given pattern, and asking oneself whether each team has the players and coaching style to exploit/nullify a given pattern.

This is what I try to do here on NN: give you the stats, give you my opinions based on the stats, and give you the non-statistical reasons why I don't think I'm hitting you with statistical smoke and mirrors.

With that said, let's begin with the 49ers-Jaguars matchup review...

After the jump, I'll write a tribute to myself chock-full of pats on the back and I-told-you-so's. Wait, no, um, inner voice, inner voice...What I meant was, I'll review the matchups...

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