SB Nation User Blog: Florida Danny

Week 15 Statistical Matchup: 49ers @ Eagles

Florida Danny — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 20:01:05 -0000

AUTHOR'S NOTE: If you missed my Formula for Success post, you can read it here.

I have to admit. When I sat down to analyze the statistical matchups for today's game, I figured that it would be a really depressing next few hours. I totally thought that this game was going to be overrun by PHI strengths matched up against SF weaknesses. I thought the stats would tell me this game is going to be the Niners' proverbial east-coast blowout. Thankfully for my psyche, I was pleasantly surprised. It turns out that the Eagles game isn't a lost cause after all. That's not to say the matchups are in favor of the Niners. It just means that we might not have to sit through another 42-3 vomit-fest. First good sign: Mother Nature.

There's a bevy of key matchups today, so no sense in wasting any more time...

TEAM MATCHUP #1: EAGLES OFFENSIVE TREND

This one might surprise you a little bit. I know it sure surprised me. Here's a chart showing the game performances for one Eagles team unit thus far this season:

Given that the Eagles are known as a team that passes the ball a lot more than is typical for the NFL, I never thought that it would be their rush OFF that seems to dictate wins and losses. From the chart, the trend is clear. When the Eagles have an above-average Rush OFF DVOA for the game, they're 9-0; when it's below average, they're 0-4. Since I've been putting these charts together, this is the most clear-cut trend I've found for any 49er opponent. So, as this Eagles trend relates to what the 49ers need to do to win the game, one important place to start is obviously stopping LeSean McCoy and company in the running game.

What makes this matchup, shall we say, veeeeeeery interesting is that, as you all know by now, the 49ers' DEF is one of the best in the NFL. It turns out that, in several rush-related stats, this key matchup is another example of an irresistible force meeting an immovable object. Specifically, whereas the Eagles Rush OFF DVOA is ranked 7th in the league (13.1%), the 49ers' Rush DEF DVOA is ranked 5th (-15.3%). Furthermore, PHI has the #8 OL ALY in the NFL (4.25 OL ypc), but SF's defensive front 7 (DF7) also has the 8th-best ALY (3.73). And when you consider that PHI is a left-side running team (7th-highest % of RB carries to the left side), the matchup is again strength vs. strength (PHI OL LT ALY = 5.21 ypc, 4th; SF DF7 LT ALY = 3.14, 3rd). Taken together, these stats suggest that Eagles need to run the ball efficiently to win, but this plays right into the 49ers' stout run-stopping hands. Throw in the freezing temperature at game time, and we might just have a game that's a lot closer than people expect.

After the jump, more stats showing the 49ers' recipe for an unexpected stay-in-the-playoff-hunt victory against PHI...

TEAM MATCHUP #2: OFFENSIVE TRENCHES

The Eagles aren't the only ones who will have to win a battle of the trenches in order to win the game; the Niners will too. However, for SF's OFF, it'll be an uphill battle. That's because PHI's DF7 has a nearly across-the-board statistical advantage against SF's much-maligned OL. Here are the relevant stats:

Overall ALY - SF's OL is ranked #31 at 3.42 ypc; PHI's DF7 is ranked #6 at 3.58 ypc.
C/G ALY - Where the Niners like to run most frequently, SF's OL is ranked 30th at 3.44 ypc; PHI's DF7 is ranked #8 at 3.59 ypc.
Stuffed Rate - SF's OL is ranked #30, with 23.0% of their RB carries resulting in zero or negative yardage; PHI's DF7 is ranked #5 at 23.9%.
ASR - Although definitely improving, SF's OL is still ranked 25th at 8.1%; PHI's DF7 is ranked 9th at 7.2%.

So, all in all, SF's OL needs to outperform this matchup - just like they did against the Cardinals - in order for the 49ers to come out of Philly with a win. Well, more accurately, winning the game necessitates either the OL winning in the trenches or Frank Gore overcoming an OL loss in the trenches.

TEAM MATCHUP #3: 1ST DOWN OFFENSE

This matchup represents another episode of When 2nd-Down Pass Defenses Attack! Specifically, the 49ers' pass OFF has a ridiculously bad matchup in 2nd-down passing situations, so the key for SF is to perform efficiently on 1st down, and thereby avoid being prey to PHI's predator. The bone-crushing, flesh-eating details are as follows:

Overall 2nd-Down DVOA - SF's OFF is #31 at -25.5%; PHI's DEF is #1 at -30.1%.
2nd-Down Pass DVOA - SF's OFF is dead-last in the NFL at -34.3%; PHI's DEF is again #1 at -48.4%.
2nd & Long DVOA - SF's OFF is #31 at -36.0%; PHI's DEF is again #1 at -56.2%.

The picture painted by these stats is that PHI's pass DEF is the best in the league on 2nd down, and, because their opponents tend to be in passing situations on 2nd & Long, their DEF is the best in the NFL on 2nd down overall. The converse is true for the 49ers' OFF. They're often in 2nd & Long - thank you "Gore up-the-middle for no gain" - and therefore pass the ball a lot on 2nd down, with this specific inefficiency adversely affecting their overall 2nd-down performance stats. So, if the 49ers are going to win this game, a key contribution must be made by their 1st-down OFF: Don't put yourselves in 2nd & Long!

TEAM MATCHUP #4: RED ZONE OFFENSE

Think back to the Niners' last road game, which was against the Seahawks. What do you remember from the early part of that game? I seem to recall that they had an unfortunate - albeit officiating-induced - 0-point trip into SEA's red zone. Well, against PHI, this simply cannot happen if the 49ers are going to win. That's because PHI has somewhat of a counterintuitive "break but don't bend" DEF. Specifically, whereas their DEF is very stingy between the 20s, they are horrible if/when their opponent reaches the red zone.

To boot, it's not just a matter of being bad vs. the pass or the run in the red zone: SF has a favorable matchup in both. Namely, whereas the Niners' pass OFF is ranked 10th in Red Zone DVOA (34.6%), the Eagles' pass DEF is ranked 26th (35.6%). Similarly, whereas the Niners' run OFF is ranked 9th in Red Zone DVOA (23.5%), the Eagles' run DEF is ranked 23rd (7.5%). Put these together, and the 49ers' OFF has a clear strength vs. weakness matchup against the Eagles' DEF: SF's OFF is ranked 5th in Overall Red Zone DVOA (21.4%), whereas PHI's DEF is ranked 28th (21.3%). In other words, the Niners simply cannot afford to come away from their (likely rare) trips to the red zone empty-handed.

TEAM MATCHUP #5: PUNT COVERAGE

This marks the first time I've ever brought up ST in the matchup post. The reason for it finally emerging this week is pretty clear given the show DeSean Jackson put on against the New York Giants last week. Also, don't forget that Andy Lee and company are the #2 punt coverage unit in the NFL according to DVOA, having gained 13.7 total points worth of field position for the team this season. So, what we have here is the #2 punt coverage unit going against the #1 punt return unit. To ignore this as a key matchup would have been a disservice, especially given the weather conditions that are likely during the game. If this one's going to be a field position struggle, the Niners' punt coverage unit will play a non-trivial role in the outcome of that struggle.

PLAYER MATCHUP # 1: VERNON DAVIS VS. PHI PASS DEF

The past few games, the 49ers' pass OFF has revolved around Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree, i.e., they've received the bulk of the targets. Well, the Tainted Twosome is probably going to have go their separate ways today, with VD being the Simon to Crabs' Garfunkel. That's because, as if you didn't already know that Asante Samuel is pretty good, the Eagles' DEF is ranked #3 in DVOA against #1 WRs (-37.7%). So, with Crabs being quarantined, VD will have to infect PHI's defense instead. The good news here is that PHI's DEF is ranked 24th in Yards Allowed Per TE Target (7.6 Y/T). Unfortunately, PHI's DEF is also a just-below-elite 11th in DVOA vs. TE. Therefore, what this means is that, although VD's targets are unlikely to be very efficient overall, he must make a handful of them count in a big way.

PLAYER MATCHUP # 2: LEONARD WEAVER VS. SF PASS DEF

Never thought you'd be seeing this matchup described as "key," eh? Well, this is what I consider to be one of those "attention to detail" kinds of things that I talked about in my Formula for Success post this week. It's clearly not obvious that Weaver is an integral part of the Eagles' pass OFF. After all, except for when Tom Rathman was playing for the 49ers, FBs don't tend to be integral to any pass OFF! However, Weaver has shown flashes of effectiveness in recent games, and, most of all, he absolutely killed the Niners in their home game against the Seahawks last season; seemingly out of nowhere. Don't think for one second that Andy Reid ignored the film from that game when coming up with his plan for this one. And don't think Weaver sat quietly in team meetings without mentioning his exploits against the Niners last season. In other words, "The Weaver Advantage" is one detail I'm almost positive PHI has paid attention to in their preparation for today's game. I really hope the 49ers' pass DEF, with their #26 DVOA vs. RBs (23.1%), paid just as much attention. I'll be watching this one closely.

MISCELLANEOUS MATCHUPS

SF 1st-Quarter OFF (and DEF) vs. PHI 1st-Quarter DEF (and OFF)...If you read my posts regularly, you know how much I preach about playing efficiently in the 1st quarter, especially on the road. This game is definitely going to test the theory because, whereas PHI (on both sides of the ball) are ridiculously good in the 1st quarter, the 49ers (as we all know by now) are, shall we say, not good. Specifically, when the Niners have the ball in the 1st quarter against PHI, it will be a weakness vs. strength matchup between the #29 1st-quarter OFF (-32.3%) and the #3 1st-quarter DEF (-19.6%). When the Eagles have the ball in the 1st quarter against SF, it will be a strength vs. strength matchup between the #7 1st-quarter OFF (26.0%) and the #8 1st-quarter DEF (-11.7%). These stats suggest that, if this game is going to remain within reach for the Niners, it's up to their OFF to overcome a disadvantageous matchup, and it's up to their DEF to perform up to one of its strengths.

SF Shotgun OFF vs. PHI Shotgun DEF...This week, it's déjà vu all over again. Just like in the Cardinals game, the Niners' OFF faces an opposing DEF that's (a) really good at stopping shotgun and (b) faced a lot of shotgun this season. In fact, PHI's DEF is probably an even worse shotgun matchup for the Niners than ARI's DEF was. Specifically, 40.3% of PHI's defensive snaps have come against OFF's lined up in shotgun formation, and their DEF DVOA on such plays is a 5th-ranked -15.6%. Furthermore, remember that, against the Cardinals, the Niners' shotgun OFF was pedestrian at best. Therefore, I don't foresee a ton of efficiency coming out of SF when they line up in shotgun. And, given the weather, I wouldn't be shocked if they went back to their Shaun Hill days of a 70/30 under-the-center vs. shotgun split.

BOTTOM LINE

Based on the statistical matchups, here are the keys to a 49er victory on Sunday:

Remain immovable in rush DEF.
Outperform their matchup in the offensive trenches.
Be efficient in 1st-down OFF.
Maximize red zone opportunities on OFF.
Win the battle to end all battles in punt coverage.
Emphasize production over efficiency in VD targets.
Be prepared for Leonard Weaver.
Come out scoring in the 1st quarter.
Run more plays from under center, or at least outperform their matchup when they are in shotgun.

*DVOA, ALY, and ASR statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.

Poll

Which of the following key matchups will have THE BIGGEST IMPACT on a 49er victory against the Eagles today?

Singletary’s Formula for Success through 13 Games

Florida Danny — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 23:26:03 -0000

AUTHOR'S NOTE: If you're interested, here is my statistical matchup review of the Cardinals game.

Welcome back for this week's look at how the 49ers are doing according to Mike Singletary's Formula for Success. For those that don't remember Singletary's Formula for Success, here it is:

Total Ball Security
Execute
Dominate the Trenches
Create Good Field Position
Finish

After going through the stats, I'm of the opinion that Monday night's impressive victory provides Mike Singletary with a real opportunity to show just how great of a head coach he really is. The reason I say this is because, although the 49ers were clearly the better team on the field against the Cardinals, the Formula for Success stats show that they weren't the best team they could be.

In sport (and educational) psychology, there's a concept called goal orientation, which has two components: task orientation and ego orientation. When a player/team (or student) is high in task orientation, their primary goal is to be the best they can be; they tend to evaluate themselves in relation to their own past performances. When a player/team (or student) is ego oriented, their primary goal is to be better than other players/teams; they tend to evaluate themselves in relation to other players/teams. Although a healthy dose of ego orientation is helpful in ultra-competitive domains (e.g., professional sports), research tends to suggest that having a high task orientation is more predictive of success in the long run.

When you think about the greatest players/teams in various sports, high task orientation is a common thread. Listen closely to interviews with Kobe Bryant, Michael Jordan, and Tiger Woods - of course, he may not be doing many interviews in the foreseeable future - and what you'll hear are statements like, "I didn't bring my A game today," "I left a lot of points out there on the court," etc. These are code phrases for, "I'm high in task orientation." Each - though obviously competitive - primarily evaluates themselves in relation to their own past performances, and is constantly obsessed with personal improvement.

One team example that hits very close to home is the great 49er squad of the 1980s, whose coach, Bill Walsh, was the poster boy for task orientation. Indeed, another code phrase for high task orientation is "attention to detail," and Walsh paid more attention to detail than probably any head coach before him or since. The next time they're on, watch the coaching videos of Walsh shown during the America's Game series on NFL Network, and notice how much of what he said (and did) focused on the team improving their performance from the previous play in practice, the previous game, etc. Sprinkled among his boxing analogies and "we're better than this piece-of-crap opponent" rhetoric was a constant pursuit of perfection. As I've said before, his genius was as much about having an innate (i.e., not book-learned) mastery of performance psychology as it was about having a mastery of Xs and Os.

Bringing things full circle, I raise this issue because recent Niner teams have repeatedly displayed a sense of "we've arrived" after performances like the one we saw Monday night. It's appeared that, rather than being motivated to improve on good performances, they've been satisfied with knowing they were better than their opponent. As I said, the former is better in the long run. So that's why I say this is a watershed moment - at least to me - in Singletary's tenure as head coach. Can he use his obvious skills as a motivator to have his team improve in areas where they're still mediocre-at-best or will the Niners - as has been the case for the past couple of years - once again be content with being better than their last opponent rather than on improving upon their performance in that win?

This is the topic I'll focus on in today's Formula for Success post: showing you that, despite their domination of ARI, the Niners still have a lot of room for improvement. It's up to Singletary and his team to finish the story.

After the jump, I make the seamless transition from psychology to statistics...

ADJUSTED BS RATES

Before getting to the 49ers' specific Formula for Success stats, let me first present this week's BS Rates for each NFL team. It's become a popular feature, so I'd be remiss to omit it.

Below you'll find Adjusted Ball Security (BS) Rates, Unadjusted BS Rates, Fumble Rates (FR), Interception Rates (IR), and Adjusted IRs for each NFL team through 13 games (Niner stats and top 8 for each category in bold; bottom 8 for each category in italics):

	Team	Adj BS Rate	Last Wk	W-L	BS Rate	Rk	FR	Rk	IR	Rk	Adj IR	Rk
1	MIN	98.73%	1	11-2	98.73%	1	1.24%	2	1.34%	1	1.33%	1
2	NE	98.48%	2	8-5	98.27%	5	1.50%	4	2.18%	8	1.58%	3
3	SD	98.28%	4	10-3	98.44%	2	1.49%	3	1.72%	5	2.20%	7
4	IND	98.26%	5	13-0	98.30%	3	0.99%	1	2.98%	20	3.10%	19
5	ATL	98.08%	6	6-7	97.84%	11	1.62%	6	3.22%	23	2.51%	10
6	DEN	98.07%	9	8-5	98.30%	4	1.52%	5	2.11%	7	2.82%	15
7	DAL	97.98%	8	8-5	97.99%	9	2.22%	19	1.58%	4	1.62%	5
8	NO	97.94%	10	13-0	97.84%	12	2.09%	16	2.31%	10	2.00%	6
9	JAC	97.90%	14	7-6	97.89%	10	2.41%	22	1.45%	2	1.40%	2
10	PHI	97.89%	7	9-4	98.07%	7	1.78%	9	2.24%	9	2.77%	14
11	BAL	97.89%	12	7-6	98.01%	8	1.73%	7	2.54%	12	2.91%	17
12	MIA	97.87%	3	7-6	97.49%	18	2.34%	21	2.90%	19	1.62%	4
13	HOU	97.85%	13	6-7	97.79%	14	1.76%	8	3.11%	22	2.91%	18
14	GB	97.84%	11	9-4	98.08%	6	2.08%	15	1.57%	3	2.32%	8
15	PIT	97.63%	20	6-7	97.84%	13	1.86%	10	2.80%	16	3.48%	24
16	CIN	97.60%	16	9-4	97.77%	15	2.11%	17	2.54%	13	3.12%	20
17	SF	97.58%	18	6-7	97.68%	16	2.20%	18	2.55%	14	2.85%	16
18	CLE	97.52%	19	2-11	97.41%	20	2.05%	13	3.78%	26	3.41%	23
19	NYG	97.49%	17	7-6	97.49%	17	2.51%	26	2.49%	11	2.50%	9
20	TEN	97.48%	22	6-7	97.42%	19	2.51%	25	2.75%	15	2.55%	11
21	STL	97.41%	15	1-12	97.40%	21	2.05%	12	3.74%	25	3.70%	25
22	WAS	97.26%	24	4-9	97.23%	23	2.73%	28	2.86%	18	2.76%	13
23	BUF	97.19%	23	5-8	97.10%	24	2.24%	20	4.44%	27	4.13%	27
24	CAR	97.11%	29	5-8	97.01%	27	2.08%	14	5.14%	29	4.82%	30
25	SEA	97.03%	25	5-8	97.24%	22	3.14%	32	2.02%	6	2.64%	12
26	NYJ	97.03%	28	7-6	96.74%	31	2.47%	24	5.52%	32	4.40%	29
27	KC	97.02%	26	3-10	97.09%	25	2.88%	29	3.00%	21	3.19%	21
28	ARI	96.93%	21	8-5	97.05%	26	2.99%	30	2.86%	17	3.22%	22
29	DET	96.92%	27	2-11	96.97%	28	1.86%	11	5.34%	30	5.49%	32
30	TB	96.82%	30	1-12	96.44%	32	2.60%	27	5.50%	31	4.35%	28
31	OAK	96.69%	31	4-9	96.82%	29	3.05%	31	3.49%	24	3.90%	26
32	CHI	96.59%	32	5-8	96.74%	30	2.47%	23	4.78%	28	5.23%	31

If you don't know what each of these stats mean, see my detailed explanation here.

This week, the top 2 teams remain the same (Vikings & Patriots), but there was quite a bit of upheaval for the rest of the Elite 8. The most notable change from last week was exhibited by the Dolphins, who dropped from #3 to #9 primarily by virtue of going from 14th to 21st in FR. Specifically, 4 fumbles in 78 fumbling opportunities against the Jaguars increased their FR from 1.99% to 2.34%. They also dropped from 1st to 4th in Adjusted IR, but that was primarily due to the strength of schedule (SOS) adjustment being weaker for all teams this week.

Other things worth mentioning are as follows:

Through 13 games, the top 8 teams in Adjusted BS rate have a combined record of 77-27, while the bottom 8 have a combined record of 35-69. Once again, that's pretty clear evidence supporting the utility of using Total Ball Security as an indicator of success.
The Falcons, Jets, and Cardinals all seem to have Adjusted BS rates that disagree with their records. In the offseason, I'm going to look at how teams who display this kind of discrepancy have tended to perform the following season. It could be that, like football's Pythagorean Theorem, teams that win more games than their Adjusted BS rate would predict tend to lose more games the following season, and vice versa.
Speaking of ATL, it's pretty obvious their season has collapsed because of problems at the QB position. An injury to Matt Ryan and an IR SOS that's 4th-toughest in the NFL have conspired to destroy their once-promising season.
And speaking of ARI, it's interesting that they're in 1st place in the NFC West despite being the worst team in the division when it comes to Adjusted BS Rate.
Another NFC West team, the Seahawks, also exhibits a peculiar ball security situation given that they're in the top quartile of the league when it comes to IR, but are ranked dead last in FR. In other words, their QBs are really good at avoiding interceptions, but their ball carriers have a serious case of butterfingers.
GB has the 3rd-lowest IR in the NFL, but it's been a byproduct of facing the easiest IR schedule in the league.
FR seems to set the top of the Adjusted BS Rate rankings (i.e., the top 6 are the same teams as those in the top 6 of Adjusted BS rate), but doesn't seem to set the bottom of the rankings. To me, this suggests that avoiding fumbles - not necessarily INTs - is one important thing that separates really good teams from everyone else.

THE REST OF THE 49ERS' FORMULA STATS

The following table displays the Niners' stats this week according to Singletary's Formula for Success, what those stats were last week, and what the extent of change was between this week's stats and last week's stats (top-8 in bold; bottom-8 in italics):

		This Week		Last Week		Change
Formula Ingredient	Statistic	Value	Rk	Value	Rk	Value	Rk
Total Ball Security	Adj BS Rate	97.58%	17	97.55%	18	+0.03%	+1
Total Ball Security	BS Rate	97.68%	16	97.70%	17	-0.02%	+1
Total Ball Security	FR	2.20%	18	2.32%	22	+0.12%	+4
Total Ball Security	IR	2.55%	14	2.27%	10	-0.28%	-4
Total Ball Security	Adj IR	2.85%	16	2.71%	11	-0.14%	-5
Execute	Total	4.9%	18	0.6%	17	+4.3%	-1
Execute	OFF	-7.0%	22	-7.1%	21	+0.1%	-1
Execute	DEF	-11.8%	4	-7.2%	5	+4.6%	+1
Execute	ST	0.1%	20	0.5%	16	-0.4%	-4
Execute	1Q OFF	-32.3%	29	-31.9%	30	+0.4%	+1
Execute	1Q DEF	-11.7%	8	-6.8%	11	+4.9%	+3
Dominate the Trenches	OL ALY	3.42	31	3.23	32	+0.19	+1
Dominate the Trenches	OL ASR	8.1%	25	8.6%	27	+0.5%	+2
Dominate the Trenches	DF7 ALY	3.73	8	3.65	8	-0.08	0
Dominate the Trenches	DF7 ASR	7.6%	5	7.1%	7	+0.5%	+2
Create Great Field Position	FG/XP Pts	1.1	15	1.7	14	-0.6	-1
Create Great Field Position	KO Pts	4.1	13	3.9	12	+0.2	-1
Create Great Field Position	KR Pts	-3.0	16	-1.9	17	-1.1	+1
Create Great Field Position	P Pts	13.7	2	12.0	2	+1.7	0
Create Great Field Position	PR Pts	-15.5	32	-13.5	32	-2.0	0
Create Great Field Position	Own 1-20 OFF	-31.5%	30	-32.2%	30	+0.7%	0
Create Great Field Position	Opp 1-20 DEF	8.1%	19	19.5%	24	+11.4%	+5
Finish	4Q OFF	9.5%	13	6.4%	16	+3.1%	+3
Finish	4Q DEF	-1.0%	14	4.5%	15	+5.5%	+1
Finish	Late/Close OFF	-21.5%	27	-24.8%	28	+3.3%	+1
Finish	Late/Close DEF	-11.9%	7	-11.0%	7	+0.9%	0

Here's where we get to the task orientation part of the post...

As you can see from the week-to-week changes, the Niners did a lot of Formula-related things really well against ARI. Their DEF was awesome when the Cardinals were pinned inside their own 20. They only had 1 fumble in 85 fumbling opportunities, for a game FR of 1.18%, or about half of what it was going into Monday night. In addition, they certainly did finish well against the Cardinals.

Nevertheless, given that only 6 of the 26 rankings in the table above are in the top 8 of the NFL, there's clearly a lot of room for improvement. The first place to start would be the 6 areas in which they rank in the bottom 8 of the league: 1st-quarter offense, run-blocking, pass-blocking, punt returns, OFF inside their own 20 yard line, and OFF late in close games. What will tell me a lot about the improvement of this team, along with Singletary's skills as a head coach, is if they don't have epic fails in any of these 6 areas against the Eagles tomorrow afternoon.

Also, given that Alex Smith through 2 INTs against the Cardinals, which made SF plummet in the IR and Adjusted IR rankings, it's clear that this is an area that needs improvement as well. If the Niners are going to show me that they've broken out of their "we've arrived" mentality after big wins, they can't go into Philadelphia, and "throw" the game away - both literally and figuratively.

So, again, my main point here is that, although it was definitely encouraging to see the 49ers dominate the 1st-place team in their division, the most important thing for them going forward is to not think that they've "arrived." They have to realize that, despite playing so well in one game, their body of work suggests they have 20 Formula-related areas in which improvement is necessary; in 6 of these 20, it's really necessary. Essentially, the 49ers may have played like an elite NFL team this past week, but they're not yet an elite team every week, and they're by no means an elite team this season.

In other words, a healthy dose of task orientation - from their motivational-speaker head coach, no less - is definitely in order if the 49ers want to become a legitimately elite NFL team.

BOTTOM LINE

Based on Mike Singletary's Formula for Success:

Total Ball Security - Please stop alternating games between fumbling and throwing interceptions.
Execute - The DEF is definitely light years ahead of the OFF and ST.
Dominate in the Trenches - They're continuing to improve on both sides of the ball.
Create Great Field Position - The punt return unit continues to hold them back.
Finish - They're still average, but are improving across the board.

Coming up tomorrow morning, the statistical preview for tomorrow's matchup against PHI.

*DVOA, ALY, and ASR statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.

Week 14 Statistical Matchup Review: 49ers vs. Cardinals

Florida Danny — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 14:17:15 -0000

Another week, another instance in which I was Nostradamus-esque in identifying the key statistical matchups. As you'll see in today's post, a dominating performance the likes of which we saw on Monday night occurs primarily via a corresponding domination of key matchups. In other words, if you ever doubted that football is a game of matchups, the 49ers bludgeoning of the Cardinals was a prime example of why it's true.

TEAM MATCHUP #1: CARDINALS OFFENSIVE TREND

In the preview post, I told you that, going into the game, ARI was 7-0 when they had a Game OFF DVOA above 30%. The implication was that a key part of beating ARI was for the Niners' DEF to keep them below that threshold. Well, since it's so late in the week already, I have access to the actual Game DVOAs, and the Niners held "the straw that stirs ARI's drink" to just a tad bit below 30%: how does -81.8% (!!!) sound? When an OFF is over 110% less efficient than they need to be to win, they're not just going to lose. They're going to get annihilated; and that's exactly what happened to the Cardinals on Monday night.

After the jump, more stats showing the 49ers' recipe for Monday Night Football victory...

TEAM MATCHUP #2: PASS DEFENSE

For this one, I noted that the matchup between ARI's pass OFF in the red zone (ranked 3rd) and SF's pass DEF in the red zone (ranked 1st), along with the matchup between ARI's pass-blocking (ranked 6th) and SF's pass-rushing (ranked 7th), were going to constitute the classic battle between an irresistible force and an immovable object. I think we know who won the battle.

With respect to red zone passing, ARI actually had only 5 total snaps inside the Niners' 20 yard line, only 2 of which resulted in Kurt Warner passes. The result: 1 completion in 2 attempts for 6 yards. Not to mention the fact that, in their first of two trips into the red zone, Warner threw an interception immediately after a Larry Fitzgerald block-above-the-waist penalty sent ARI back to the 28 yard line.

As for ASR, the Cardinal OL's was 4.5% and the Niner DF7's was 7.1%. After the game, the Cards' ASR rose to 5.0% (dropping them to 8th), while the Niner DF7's ASR rose to 7.6% (vaulting them to 5th). If we ignore the strength of schedule (SOS) adjustments for a second, ARI's OL had allowed only 18 sacks in 480 pass plays, for a Sack Rate of 3.8%, while SF's DF7 had sacked opposing QBs 30 times in 450 pass plays, for a Sack Rate of 6.7%. Put those together and you have an expected Sack Rate for the game of about 5.2%. Well, during the game, ARI's OL allowed 4 sacks in 33 pass plays, for a Sack Rate of 12.1%, meaning that the Niners outperformed this matchup by over 100% (i.e., 12.1% divided by 5.2%). Again, we have absolute matchup destruction.

TEAM MATCHUP #3: PASS OFFENSE

Here's one where you might think I'd have egg on my face because I used 2 paragraphs and a table (which, per howtheyscored, are only for jerks) to argue that the Niners were highly unlikely to run successfully against the Cardinals' DEF; and, therefore, needed to pass. It turns out, obviously, that I was wrong on both counts. However, this doesn't mean the stats lied, or that they couldn't predict anything. Rather, it just means that Frank Gore's absurdly good performance was an unqualified matchup destroyer.

In making my case, I noted that there were 6 areas in which the Niners had a horrible rush OFF matchup against the Cardinals: Rush DVOA, Overall ALY, C/G (aka up-the-middle) ALY, RT ALY, Power Success Rate, and Stuffed Rate. In each of these statistical categories, SF's rush OFF was ranked 23rd or worse, whereas ARI's rush DEF was ranked 9th or better. Was I really that insane to come to the conclusion that I did?

Here are the game stats for the 49ers' OFF in each of these 6 categories, along with the statistical disadvantages they had going into the game and how they performed relative to the matchup (ALYs include Gore carries only and are approximate because I can only adjust for SOS):

Statistic	ARI Game Expectation	ARI Game Performance	Matchup Performance
Rush DVOA	4.5%	43.2%	+37.7%
Overall ALY	3.43	2.93	-0.50
C/G ALY	3.45	2.84	-0.61
RT ALY	2.89	1.47	-1.42
Power Success Rate	55%	100%	+45%
Stuffed Rate	26%	16%	+10%

I said "Frank Gore's absurdly good performance" a minute ago for good reason. That's because this table shows that the Niners' domination of their running game matchup was primarily due to Frank Gore. Specifically, the Niner OFF's Rush DVOA for the game suggests a performance that was 10 times better than expected (!!!) despite the fact that the OLs ALYs were worse - and in the case of RT ALY, considerably worse - than expected. Essentially, what this means is that, while Gore's carries were ridiculously efficient in the context of specific game situations, most of his damage came beyond 10 yards down field, i.e., after the point at which the OL receives credit for those yards.*

That brings me to one matchup I didn't mention in the preview because I honestly couldn't have predicted that it would mean very much. Namely, SF's RBs vs. ARI's LBs and DBs on runs that go farther than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. It turns out that, going into Monday night's game, 32% of all rushing yards gained by Niner RBs occurred more than 10 yards downfield (which ranked #2 in the league), while 28% of all RB rushing yards allowed by the Cardinals' DEF occurred more than 10 yards downfield (which ranked #31 in the league). In other words, if Gore got past ARI's stout DF7, he'd have a field day - so to speak - running free in the secondary. And that's exactly what happened: 33% of Gore's rushing yards came after he was already 10 yards downfield. Of course, there's no way I could have predicted this given that the OL/DF7 matchups suggested Gore would not, in fact, make it that far on his carries.

In any event, the table above doesn't altogether speak unkindly of the Niners' OL. Actually, what it says is that the OL came through when it mattered most. First, there's the Niners' Rush OFF DVOA for the game. You don't achieve a value of 43.2% without some seriously efficient blocking from your OL. Second, the OL's Power Success Rate for the game suggests that they wildly overperformed against ARI's DF7 when it came to blocking on 3rd-/4th-down running plays with 2 or fewer yards to gain. Indeed, they were a perfect 4 for 4 in such situations, with a Gore TD as icing on the cake. Finally, the OL's Stuffed Rate indicates that they also overperformed against ARI's DF7 when it came to avoiding zero or negative yardage on running plays. Indeed, only 5 of the Niners 32 RB carries went for zero or negative yardage.

So, all in all, I may have predicted that the Niners couldn't run against ARI given the horrible OL/DF7 matchup, and I may have suggested that they throw the ball more because of it. However, looking back at their performance, I couldn't have foreseen Gore being able to run free against ARI's long-run-prone secondary, and I certainly wouldn't have offered up passing as a game plan if I knew the Niners would overperform this matchup so much. Hell, I would have done the same exact thing Jimmy Raye decided to do when Gore started the game with 3 carries for 13 efficient yards, while Alex Smith started with 5 plays for 2 inefficient incompletions, 1 inefficient scramble, and 1 incredibly inefficient INT.

PLAYER MATCHUP # 2: TIM HIGHTOWER VS. SF PASS DEF

Another matchup that the Niners' pass DEF absolutely hammered was preventing Tim Hightower from replicating his 12-catch, 121-yard performance in Week 1. I had said prior to the game that this matchup was going to be important because Cards/Niners II was going to be more pass-heavy than Cards/Niners I, and so Hightower's pass-catching prowess would play more of a role in the outcome than it did in Week 1, i.e., a plodding game the 49ers won despite it.

Well, I was half-right. The matchup did matter a lot, and it was because the game was pass-heavy (at least on ARI's end), but stopping Hightower in the passing game had virtually nothing to do with the Niners' pass DEF; unless you consider a FS forcing Hightower to fumble on a running play as part of "pass DEF." It turns out, though, that the best pass DEF against Hightower was a good run DEF. After Dashon Goldson laid some serious wood on Hightower's 2nd carry of the game, thereby causing a fumble that the 49ers recovered, the Cardinals essentially benched Hightower. And, of course, a benched Hightower equals a non-pass-catching Hightower.

Amazingly, as gifted as a receiver as he is, and as integral a part he plays in ARI's pass OFF, Hightower wasn't even the intended receiver of a pass until 37:26 had elapsed in the game. Furthermore, although he caught both passes, only 1 was a successful play given the down and distance; and, by that time, the 49ers already had a game-clinching 24-9 lead.

So, the bottom line of this matchup boils down to saying a big "thank you" to Goldson for knocking that ball loose so early in the game. That play singlehandedly nullified a massive advantage ARI's pass OFF had against SF's pass DEF.

BOTTOM LINE

Make no mistake, the 49ers defrocked the Cardinals - hope you like that pun - because of a god vs. devil performance the likes of which hasn't been seen since the Crusades:

They destroyed ARI's aerial assault.
They sacked the enemy commander (i.e., Kurt Warner).
They annihilated their opposition in the trenches.
Goldson's "shock and awe" campaign against an enemy stronghold caused an early retreat.

*DVOA, ALY, and ASR statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.

Shotgun Wedding: Alex Smith Meets the Offense of His Dreams

Florida Danny — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 16:52:11 -0000

AUTHOR'S NOTE: The time I usually devote to team and players stats was instead devoted last week to this very special article I've put together with the help of Aaron Schatz from Football Outsiders (FO). He provided the individual stats for Alex Smith and Shaun Hill, and I did the writing, but we're both in general agreement about what the stats say as they relate to Smith and the shotgun. If you want to show your appreciation for Aaron's entirely unobligated attention to the whims of our blog, and have an interest in accessing FO's statistical database for yourself, head over to his site and get the premium membership. Obviously, I highly recommend it.

Besides whether or not Mike Nolan was going to make it through an entire press conference without saying, "look it," the fate of Alex Smith has been the hottest topic of Niner debate over the past 5 years. I don't need to recap all the gory details, but suffice it to say that he's a polarizing figure among Niner fans. My goal for this post is not to settle the debate. Rather, what I'd like to do here is answer a Dennis-Green-esque question about Smith: Is he who we thought he was?

Whether you love him or hate him, and whether you think he's the 49ers' "QB of the future" or not, there's no denying that what we've seen from Smith this season constitutes a remarkable turnaround for a guy who, just 9 months ago, was in serious danger of being released. In this post, my intention is to show - as crisply and clearly as possible - what the statistics say about the reason(s) for his resurrection. I know the guy's already married and all, but, as you'll see, this season has been something of a shotgun wedding for Smith.

A ROCKY RELATIONSHIP

There's really no mistaking the fact that Smith's career has been seriously hampered by injury. Indeed, he's only had 2 seasons in which he was actually healthy: 2006 and 2009. So, the first clue about the reason for his renaissance is that he's actually healthy. To drive the point home, here's a table showing the 49ers' Pass OFF DVOA for games since 2005 that Smith did not play, games he played while coming off of an injury, and games he played while totally healthy (I've excluded 5 games in which multiple QBs played):

Game Type	G	Avg Pass OFF Game DVOA
Smith healthy	25	-5.2%
Smith coming off injury	8	-63.3%
Smith did not play	37	-22.9%

As you can see from this table, the 49ers' pass OFF has been considerably better in games when Smith is healthy when compared to games in which he didn't play or played coming off of an injury. What's most interesting to me is that, despite the ridiculously small sample size for "Smith coming off injury," the 58.1% difference is statistically significant within 95% certainty. In other words, it's beyond a reasonable statistical doubt that the Niners' OFF plays better when Smith is healthy.

After the jump, I'll show why health is just one of many things that are the same between 2006 and 2009, and therefore can't explain why Smith is better in 2009 than 2006. And, of course, I'll offer my suggestion for what CAN explain it (See story title)...

Of course, not all "Smith healthy" games are created equally. For instance, 16 of these 25 games occurred in 2006, 3 occurred in 2007, and 6 have occurred in 2009. Each of these seasons was qualitatively different for various reasons:

Different offensive coordinators (OCs)
Different offensive lines (OLs)
Different receiving corps

So, to further isolate the reason(s) for Smith's renaissance, we need to see if any of these qualitative differences have exhibited any quantitative (i.e., statistical) difference to support the theory that they are a meaningful contributor to Smith's turnaround this season. Again, remember that we're comparing "healthy Alex" to "healthy Alex" here so that we partial out health as a factor.

First, the OCs. It's conventional wisdom around NinerLand that Norv Turner turned Smith into a competent NFL QB during the 2006 season. However, as we've just seen, the fact that Smith was healthy in 2006 is as important - or more important - a reason for why he played so well that season. Interestingly enough, the fact of the matter is that Smith - and the Niners' overall Pass OFF in games he started* - is considerably better this season than he was in 2006 (2009 stats are through Week 13, Pass OFF Game DVOAs only include games Smith started):

Season	G	DYAR/P	DVOA	EYds/P	Avg Pass OFF Game DVOA
2009	7	0.68	-0.4%	6.05	1.2%
2006	16	-0.26	-15.3%	4.72	-2.4%
2009 Difference		+0.94	+14.9%	+1.33	+3.6%

So, if Smith is better now, how much of it has to do with the fact that Jimmy Raye is his OC rather than Turner. Here's a table comparing the Raye's and Turner's career DVOA stats and rankings prior to being hired by the 49ers:

OC	OFF	Rank	Pass OFF	Rank	Rush OFF	Rank
Turner	-2.2%	16.3	-2.6%	17.3	-2.5%	16.7
Raye	-0.6%	14.3	0.9%	16.0	-2.9%	13.8
Raye Difference	+1.6%	+2.0	+3.5%	+1.3	-0.4%	+2.9

While I'd say that Raye's track record was slightly better when he got hired, I wouldn't say that it necessarily accounts for Alex Smith's improvement above and beyond what we already know about the impact of health. For instance, a 3.5% improvement in Pass OFF DVOA -which is what we'd expect given Raye's and Turner's track records - is hardly a drop in the bucket of Smith's 14.9% individual DVOA improvement. Also, keep in mind that Turner's stats don't include his pre-DVOA-era stint as OC of the early-90s Dallas Cowboys. So, all in all, I'd say the difference in OCs doesn't explain Smith's renaissance.

Onto the OLs. How much of Smith's improvement this season can be attributed to the inherent ability of his OL to block pass rushers? Here's the comparison:

OL	G	ASR	Rank
2009	12	8.6%	27
2006	16	6.8%	18
2009 Difference		-1.8%	-9

OK, so actually, the Niners' OL is worse this season when it comes to pass-blocking. Of course, FO's research shows that ASR is more dependent on the QB than people realize, so it may just be the case that the OL's worse ASR this season is a byproduct of Shaun Hill starting at QB for about half the games. As I'll show later on, ASR has, in fact, decreased since Smith took over at QB. However, what we're trying to explain here is whether Smith's renaissance is due to having a better OL in 2009. Suffice it to say that, even acknowledging the OL's ASR improvement with Smith at QB this season, their ASR is still not better than it was in 2006. In other words, even if you account for the fact that a sack-prone Hill was the QB earlier in the year, the OL is still not pass-blocking better this season than in 2006, and so "better OL pass-blocking" can't be the reason for Smith being better this season than he was in 2006.

The third component of potential qualitative differences between Smith's 2006 and 2009 seasons is his supporting cast in the passing game. Here's a table showing the stats for his stable of receivers in 2006 and 2009:

	2006				2009
Stat	Bryant	Battle	EJ/VD	Gore	Crabs	Morgan	VD	Gore
Targets	91	86	91	86	56	59	101	57
DYAR/T	0.09	1.23	-0.33	1.53	-0.75	-0.27	1.47	1.23
EYds/T	6.43	8.06	3.74	7.66	4.96	5.93	8.50	6.53
Weighted Avg	DYAR/T = 0.61 EYds/T = 6.43				DYAR/T = 0.59 EYds/T = 6.81

From the averages at the bottom of this table - which are weighted by number of targets - it's pretty clear that Smith's 2009 receiving corps is not much better - if at all - than his 2006 receiving corps. It's true that Vernon Davis is better now than when he split time with Eric Johnson back in 2006, but Frank Gore's receiving stats are worse this season, and both of Smith's starting WRs (Michael Crabtree and Josh Morgan) are worse statistically than their counterparts in 2006 (Antonio Bryant and Arnaz Battle). Therefore, it ends up being a wash.

So, just to recap this section, we've determined a few things. First, Alex Smith is significantly better when he's healthy than when he's not (aka duh!). Second, when comparing "healthy Alex" to "healthy Alex," he's actually better this season than he was in 2006. Third, this improvement is not due to (a) having a better OC, (b) having a better OL, or (c) having a better receiving corps.

I NOW PRONOUNCE YOU QB AND OFFENSE

Based on the above, Alex is having his best season this year, but it's not because of health (i.e., he was worse while healthy in 2006), it's not because of a better OC, it's not because of an improved OL, and it's not because of an improved receiving corps. What the hell is it then?

Well, perhaps there's something about this season in particular that doesn't have to do with any of the factors that I've already ruled out. Oh, I know, it's called "the elephant in the room," aka shotgun OFF. Because the only thing different - in terms of offensive football - between this season and his other healthy season, 2006, is the implementation of a shotgun OFF, the only stat-related** factor left to look at is whether or not the reason for Smith's renaissance is due to him being a better shotgun QB.

Thanks to Aaron Schatz over at Football Outsiders***, I got my hands on Smith's individual shotgun and non-shotgun stats through 11 games:

QB	Plays	% Shotgun	Yards per Pass	IR	DVOA	VOA
Smith in Shotgun	125	60.1%	5.98	2.4%	8.4%	13.5%
Smith Under Center	83	39.9%	5.49	4.8%	-29.6%	-25.3%

Eureka! When Smith is in the shotgun, he averages half-a-yard more per pass, his interception rate (IR) drops by half, and his QB DVOA is 38.0% better! So, yeah, Smith is waaaaay better in the shotgun.

Of course, it could just be that all QBs show this kind of discrepancy between shotgun and non-shotgun performance (after all, FO's research shows as much), and so what I'm attributing to shotgun might actually just be a statistical artifact of that formation being more efficient in general. To solve this, we need to do a little experiment.

If only there was a QB to compare Smith to that's had the same OC, the same OL, and the same supporting cast this season. Oh wait, there is. His name is Shaun Hill. The question at hand, then, is, "Was Shaun Hill waaaaay better in the shotgun this season just like Alex Smith has been?" Again, thanks to Aaron, here's Hill's stats:

QB	Plays	% Shotgun	Yards Per Pass	IR	DVOA	VOA
Hill in Shotgun	89	50.3%	6.03	2.2%	-22.1%	-4.9%
Hill Under Center	88	49.7%	3.86	0.0%	-35.0%	-27.5%

As is plainly obvious, Hill did not enjoy anywhere near the amount of improvement in shotgun that Smith has. Hill's Shotgun GB DVOA was over 30% worse than Smith's is, and his "benefit from the shotgun" difference is over 3 times smaller. Furthermore, as you can see from the differences between DVOA and unadjusted VOA for each QB, Hill's horrible shotgun efficiency actually came against an easier shotgun schedule. In other words, Smith's massive benefit from shotgun as compared to Hill was totally independent of any difference in strength of schedule.****

So, essentially, if we put another QB in practically the exact same situation as Alex Smith in 2009, that QB doesn't benefit from shotgun nearly as much. In other words, all else being equal, Smith has been helped by the shotgun offense waaaaaay more than Hill, who had the same OC, same OL, and same stable of receivers (p.s. In case you're wondering, Bruce stats = Crabtree stats, and Morgan with Smith < Morgan with Hill, so, if anything, Hill had a better supporting cast according to DVOA).

MARRIED WITH CHILDREN

Just to put an exclamation point on things, let me provide some evidence showing that the increase in shotgun with Smith at QB has borne fruit outside of Smith's own renaissance. Here's a table showing some 49er stats as they were after Hill's last full game, and as they are after 12 games:

Statistic	Through 5 Games	Rank	Through 12 Games	Rank	Change	Rank
OFF DVOA	-16.0%	26	-7.1%	21	+8.9%	+5
Pass OFF DVOA	-8.6%	26	1.3%	21	+9.9%	+5
Rush OFF DVOA	-18.0%	27	-5.8%	25	+12.2%	+2
OL ALY	2.86	31	3.23	32	+0.37	-1
OL ASR	10.7%	30	8.6%	27	+2.1%	+3

As you can see, there's been absolute improvement across the board: better overall OFF, better pass OFF, better rush OFF, better run-blocking, and better pass-blocking. In other words, an increase in the use of shotgun underlies both Smith's specific improvement and a general improvement in the 49ers' OFF overall.

BOTTOM LINE

If you put everything I've presented in this post together, you see a clear picture of why Alex Smith appears to be a better QB all of a sudden. The stats-based logic goes something like this:

Smith plays better when healthy, and the 49ers' OFF plays better with a healthy Smith.
Smith has only had 2 healthy seasons with the Niners: 2006 and 2009.
Smith is playing better while healthy in 2009 than he did while healthy in 2006.
Smith does not have a better OC, a better OL, or a better receiving corps than he did in 2006.
Therefore, Smith's improvement in 2009 cannot be attributed to health, OC, OL, or receivers.
Smith plays waaaaay better in the shotgun.
Hill, who had the same OC, OL, and receivers as Smith, and even played an easier shotgun schedule than Smith, did not play waaaaay better in the shotgun.
Smith has taken about 60% of his snaps from shotgun this season.
Therefore, the main reason for Smith's renaissance is more shotgun.

In other words, it's been a shotgun wedding for Smith and the 49ers' OFF.

*If you add in the 83.8% Pass OFF Game DVOA for this season's Texans game, the 2009 average increases to 13.0%.

**I realize that there are non-statistical factors that could explain Smith's improvement. He could just be a "smarter QB" now after having basically done nothing but "mental reps" for the past 2 years. He could be "more mature" given the adversity he's had to fight through so far in his career and personal life. However, these are intangibles that no one can - or should - try to measure from my distance. So, I'm limited to tangibles that we can measure statistically. I will say, however, that, if it's truly the case that Smith is "smarter" or "more mature" in 2009, then why do these things not show up when he's under center? Can it really be that moving a few steps forward and putting his hands under his C's rear end makes his brain go soft and turns him into an NFL toddler? I seriously doubt that.

***DVOA, DYAR, EYds, ALY, & ASR statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.

****And one more thing, don't think that Hill has been worse than Smith from shotgun simply by virtue of taking a lower percentage of snaps in that generally-more-efficient formation. Remember, I've presented their "per play" stats, i.e., I've already accounted for the difference in shotgun percentage, and, therefore, eliminated it as a confounding variable.

Poll

To which of the following do you attribute Alex Smith being better statistically this season than he was in 2006?

Week 14 Statistical Matchup: 49ers vs. Cardinals

Florida Danny — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 19:33:12 -0000

AUTHOR'S NOTE: Sorry for no team and player rankings posts this past week. I've been working on a special article that will appear on NN in a few hours. For now, here's the matchup preview to prep you for tonight's game.

This one's going to be short and sweet, everyone. Beating the Cardinals isn't rocket science (See "Pass, Defend the"), so - not surprisingly - most of the important statistical matchups are not rocket science either. What made this matchup analysis a tad difficult is that there are several pass-defending game situations in which both the Cardinals' OFF and the 49ers' DEF are really good. So this game might end up coming down to a few strength vs. strength matchups rather than the strength vs. weakness matchups I typically present in the preview post.

Away we go...

TEAM MATCHUP #1: CARDINALS OFFENSIVE TREND

In a file-under-"Duh" moment, this week's "opponent wins when they have performance X" matchup has to do with the ARI pass OFF. Here's a chart showing their game performances thus far this season:

Aside from one exception, the Cardinals' wins and losses this season have depended on a Pass OFF DVOA for the game of 30.0%. If they're over that threshold, they're 7-0; under that threshold, and their 1-4. However, as I said, we don't really need statistics to tell us that slowing down ARI's pass OFF gives the 49ers' the best chance of winning this week's game. But, it's not just the win/loss trend that matters...

After the jump, more stats showing the 49ers' recipe for Monday Night Football victory...

TEAM MATCHUP #2: PASS DEFENSE

You know I like to focus my attention on strength vs. weakness matchups. However, the passing game is so important for ARI that I feel it's important to judge how likely it is that the Niners' DEF will be able to prevent ARI from doing what they want to do in the passing game.

The Cardinals have the 8th-best Pass OFF DVOA in the NFL going into Monday's game, so they're obviously great in a general sense. However, there are two specific offensive areas that make ARI especially dangerous: (a) red zone passing, (b) pass protection; both of which offer the 49ers' an opportunity to nullify an ARI strength.

With regard to red zone passing, ARI is #3 in the league on OFF (DVOA = 55.4%). Nevertheless, the 49ers's DEF is the top-ranked team in the NFL when it comes to Red Zone Pass DEF DVOA (-97.1%). So, it'll be interesting to see which unit - the Cardinals' pass OFF or the 49ers' pass DEF - ends up having the upper hand when Kurt Warner and company pass the ball in the red zone.

Another reason ARI's pass OFF is so dangerous is because their OL is stingy when it comes to allowing sacks. Specifically, the Cardinals' OL ASR is 4.5%, which is good for 6th-highest in the NFL. Fortunately, for our beloved team, the 49ers are ranked 7th in defensive front 7 (DF7) ASR.

So, to recap, it's obvious that the Cardinals' pass OFF is the straw that stirs their drink. Two key areas in which they're particularly good are in the red zone and in pass protection. It turns out that these two areas are actually defensive strengths for the 49ers: they're among the top 8 in defending them. Therefore, what we have here is the proverbial "irresistible force meets an immovable object" matchup. A Niner victory tonight might depend on their ability to remain "immovable."

TEAM MATCHUP #3: PASS OFFENSE

Each of the past 2 weeks, I've advocated a Niner OFF that passes the ball early and often. Against the Jaguars and Seahawks, my advocacy was based on each of these teams being horrible in pass DEF. This week, the statistical matchup against ARI once again suggests a pass-heavy OFF, but for a different reason: it's highly unlikely that SF will be able to run the ball effectively against ARI. Here's a handy table that, I think, succinctly illustrates this point (bold = top 8; italics = bottom 8):

	SF OFF		ARI DEF
Statistic	Value	Rk	Value	Rk
Rush DVOA	-5.8%	25	-13.1%	7
Overall ALY	3.23	32	3.62	7
C/G ALY	3.22	31	3.68	9
RT ALY	2.53	31	3.04	3
Power Success Rate	59%	23	52%	4
Stuffed Rate	24%	31	27%	1

How's that for an argument against trying to run the ball against ARI? If I had to pin down the most damning evidence in the table, it would have to be the Niners' disadvantageous matchups in C/G and RT ALY. Taken together, these two run directions have comprised 83% of all Niner RB carries this season, which means that ARI's DF7 is best where SF runs most. I don't know about you, but it's kind of the definition of "bad strategy" to implement a tactic that's likely to fail - and miserably so - 4 out of every 5 times you do it. Therefore, "good strategy" would be to avoid this disadvantageous matchup as much as possible. In other words, now is not the time to overreact to the SEA loss; keep passing the ball, please.

PLAYER MATCHUP #1: VERNON DAVIS VS. ARI PASS DEF

By now, it's apparent that the 49ers' pass OFF goes through Vernon Davis. Nevertheless, here's one more stab at it: VD's 101 targets this season are nearly twice as many as the 49ers' most-targeted WR (Josh Morgan, 59). So, when thinking about what the Niners want to do on OFF, "getting the ball to VD" seems to be tops on the list.

Luckily, for the Niners, the Cardinals' DEF is ranked 23rd in DVOA vs. TEs (18.6%), and give up an average of 7.4 yards per TE target (ranked 21st). Obviously, the Niners are going to pass the ball to VD regardless of the matchup, but these stats suggest they have a real opportunity to be especially successful doing so against ARI. Equally obvious is the conclusion that exploiting this matchup is going to have a big impact on whether the 49ers come out of tonight's game with a win.

PLAYER MATCHUP #2: MICHAEL CRABTREE VS. ARI PASS DEF

Although he's behind Morgan in total targets this season (56 vs. 59), Michael Crabtree is only slightly behind VD in targets per game (8.0 vs. 8.4), meaning that Crabtree's the 2nd-most-involved pass catcher on the team. So, though it's a little less obvious, the 49ers' pass OFF heavily involves Crabs.

And as was the case with VD's matchup against ARI's pass DEF, Crabtree's matchup is favorable to the 49ers. That's because the Cardinals are ranked 30th in DEF DVOA vs. #1 WRs (24.2%), and they give up an average of 9.0 yards per #1-WR target (ranked 26th). So, if the Niners can exploit this matchup, we might get to witness a break out of Crabs tonight. To boot, when combined with VD's matchup, December 14, 2009, might be remembered as the day that The Tainted Twosome spread across the nation...if the Niners can win thanks to their matchup advantages.

PLAYER MATCHUP #3: TIM HIGHTOWER VS. SF PASS DEF

It's been a while, so you may not remember that Tim Hightower had 12 catches for 121 yards in the 49ers' Week 1 win over the Cardinals. Add on 2 incomplete Warner passes that were intended for Hightower, and you find that about 30% of ARI's pass OFF in that game went through their pass-catching RB extraordinaire.

This ARI strategy against the SF pass DEF will probably continue in tonight's game because of something you're far likelier to remember: The 49ers have been getting shredded all season by screens, checkdowns, and dumpoffs to RBs. In terms of DVOA, the Niners' pass DEF is the 6th-worst in the league at defending RBs in the passing game.

Given that the Niners won the first ARI game despite Hightower's prolific receiving day, you might think that this matchup won't have a big impact on winning this game. However, I'll offer a word of caution.

The Week 14 San Francisco 49ers are not the same team that they were in Week 1, and neither are the Week 14 Arizona Cardinals. The formula for beating ARI in Week 1 - DEF and chewing up clock - fit perfectly with what SF was back then. Similarly, ARI's early-season sleepwalking on OFF - they had 2 negative OFF DVOAs in their first 3 games - gave SF a perfect opportunity to implement said winning formula. Since then, the Niners' OFF has - to its benefit - become a more pass-heavy unit, and the Cardinals' OFF has returned to its 2008 form with 9 straight above-average DVOA performances.

So, my point here is that, whereas the first game - as reflected by the 36 total points that were scored - played right into the 49ers' hands, the second game looks to be a high-scoring, gun-slinging affair. If that happens, then heavy involvement by Hightower in ARI's passing attack will play a bigger role in the game's outcome.

My biggest fear in this game is that ends up being like the late-blooming kid who gets beat up by the bigger kid in middle school. If the fight happens a few years down the road, when the kids are the same size, maybe the late-bloomer wins; but, in middle school, the big kid's got the advantage. Similarly, if tonight's game turns into a shootout, ARI's the big kid right now, while the Niners are the late-bloomers. Maybe next season, SF's pass OFF is on par with ARI's, and a shootout is a fair fight. In Week 14 of 2009, however, that kind of game pits men (ARI pass OFF) against boys (SF pass OFF).

MISCELLANEOUS MATCHUPS

SF OFF while winning vs. ARI DEF while losing...Not that any of us are expecting a Niner blowout victory, but ARI's DEF presents a bad matchup for the 49ers' "lose from ahead" OFF. Although they've gotten better the past couple of weeks, they're Winning Big OFF DVOA of -26.7% is still ranked only 29th, while ARI's Losing Big DEF DVOA is a 10th-ranked -11.8%. So, if the Niners do jump out to a lead of 8 or more points, don't expect it to last very long.

SF Shotgun OFF vs. SEA Shotgun DEF...Here's one final reason why I don't like the Niners chances in a shootout: ARI's DEF has already faced a whole heck of a lot of shotgun this season (41.7% of all defensive snaps, 7th-most), and they're pretty decent at defending it (Shotgun DEF DVOA = 4.3%, 13th). Considering how the Jaguars' DEF was ranked dead last against the shotgun and the Seahawks' DEF was ranked 27th, this game is going to be the toughest test yet of the 49ers' new-fangled "Danny-Gun" OFF.

Also, as I've mentioned before, one of the benefits of more shotgun is that the Niners' OL pass-blocks better. Unfortunately, ARI's current ASR ranking (5th) is considerably higher than either JAX's (31st) or SEA's (19th) was when the 49ers played them. So, again, this game presents an opportunity for SF's OFF to show that "more shotgun" works against a real NFL DEF.

BOTTOM LINE

Based on the statistical matchups, here are the keys to a 49er victory on Sunday:

Slow down the straw that stirs ARI's drink: their pass OFF.
Remain immovable on pass DEF in the red zone.
Pressure Kurt Warner.
Prevent efficient receptions by Hightower.
On OFF, pass, pass, pass. The result might be a shootout loss, but doing the opposite makes a blowout loss more likely.
Pass the ball to the Tainted Twosome as much as possible.
Show the entire nation - not just Niners Nation - that their new shotgun OFF works against a real NFL DEF.

*DVOA & ALY statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.

Poll

Should the 49ers scrap the shotgun FOR THIS GAME ONLY and instead use the same ball-control game plan that they used to beat Arizona in Week 1?

Singletary’s Formula for Success through 12 Games

Florida Danny — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 19:03:49 -0000

AUTHOR'S NOTE: If you're interested, here is my statistical matchup review of the Seahawks game.

Welcome back for this week's look at how the 49ers are doing according to Mike Singletary's Formula for Success. For those that don't remember Singletary's Formula for Success, here it is:

Total Ball Security
Execute
Dominate the Trenches
Create Good Field Position
Finish

The first thing I'll say is, "Don't worry. This isn't another equation-heavy measurement statistics article." OK. With that out of the way - and most of you still around - I'll repeat that, given the large sample sizes at this point in the season, don't expect too much fluctuation in any of the Formula-related stats I present today. Instead, it's most important to focus on the changes in these stats as compared to last week.

In today's post, I'll first present updated Adjusted BS Rates - along with their components - for each NFL team. Then, as I did last week, I'll use one gigantic table to present all of the stats that measure the other 4 ingredients of Singletary's Formula for Success. Of course, as has been the case of late, I'll provide some brief commentary along the way

After the jump, a pile of BS followed by a heaping helping of formula ingredients...

ADJUSTED BS RATES

Below you'll find Adjusted Ball Security (BS) Rates, Unadjusted BS Rates, Fumble Rates (FR), Interception Rates (IR), and Adjusted IRs for each NFL team through 12 games (Niner stats and top 8 for each category in bold; bottom 8 for each category in italics):

	Team	Adj BS Rate	Last Wk	BS Rate	Rk	FR	Rk	IR	Rk	Adj IR	Rk
1	MIN	98.70%	1	98.78%	1	1.24%	2	1.19%	1	1.43%	3
2	NE	98.61%	2	98.35%	3	1.41%	3	2.11%	8	1.34%	2
3	MIA	98.21%	3	97.75%	14	1.99%	12	2.86%	18	1.32%	1
4	SD	98.18%	6	98.39%	2	1.62%	4	1.60%	3	2.24%	7
5	IND	98.15%	5	98.30%	4	1.20%	1	2.60%	13	3.02%	19
6	ATL	98.05%	7	97.77%	11	1.73%	6	3.24%	24	2.38%	8
7	PHI	98.01%	11	98.08%	7	1.80%	8	2.15%	9	2.39%	9
8	DAL	97.98%	13	97.92%	9	2.27%	21	1.69%	5	1.53%	4
9	DEN	97.95%	4	98.21%	5	1.66%	5	2.07%	7	2.88%	15
10	NO	97.90%	12	97.73%	15	2.14%	17	2.55%	12	2.01%	6
11	GB	97.90%	8	98.18%	6	1.90%	10	1.65%	4	2.54%	10
12	BAL	97.83%	9	97.94%	8	1.75%	7	2.68%	15	3.04%	20
13	HOU	97.78%	10	97.75%	13	1.80%	9	3.15%	23	3.07%	21
14	JAC	97.71%	14	97.82%	10	2.47%	25	1.54%	2	1.90%	5
15	STL	97.68%	15	97.70%	16	2.00%	13	2.91%	19	2.99%	18
16	CIN	97.60%	17	97.77%	12	2.03%	15	2.74%	17	3.32%	23
17	NYG	97.57%	16	97.65%	19	2.18%	19	2.73%	16	2.96%	17
18	SF	97.55%	18	97.70%	17	2.32%	22	2.27%	10	2.71%	11
19	CLE	97.47%	23	97.32%	22	2.09%	16	3.97%	26	3.49%	24
20	PIT	97.44%	19	97.67%	18	2.00%	14	3.02%	21	3.75%	25
21	ARI	97.35%	22	97.54%	20	2.38%	23	2.61%	14	3.16%	22
22	TEN	97.33%	21	97.30%	23	2.59%	27	2.95%	20	2.85%	14
23	BUF	97.32%	20	97.15%	25	2.17%	18	4.41%	27	3.86%	27
24	WAS	97.21%	25	97.10%	26	2.82%	29	3.07%	22	2.72%	12
25	SEA	97.15%	26	97.47%	21	2.83%	30	1.96%	6	2.88%	16
26	KC	97.12%	24	97.28%	24	2.91%	32	2.30%	11	2.81%	13
27	DET	96.98%	27	96.94%	28	1.91%	11	5.30%	30	5.18%	31
28	NYJ	96.98%	31	96.63%	31	2.46%	24	5.96%	32	4.62%	29
29	CAR	96.97%	29	96.78%	29	2.23%	20	5.57%	31	4.91%	30
30	TB	96.95%	28	96.48%	32	2.69%	28	5.21%	29	3.77%	26
31	OAK	96.78%	32	96.95%	27	2.83%	31	3.55%	25	4.11%	28
32	CHI	96.56%	30	96.72%	30	2.54%	26	4.72%	28	5.18%	32

If you don't know what each of these stats mean, see my detailed explanation here.

One thing I forgot to mention last week is that the 49ers actually have the best Adjusted BS Rate among the 4 NFC West teams. So, if Total Ball Security is one of the mechanisms via which Mike Singletary envisions his team winning the division (at some point in my lifetime), then they're well on their way when it comes to avoiding fumbles and interceptions.

Of course, you wouldn't exactly expect that given the 49ers' fumbling woes against the Seahawks and the Cardinals stellar play of late. However, the reason why they remained at #18 this week should be pretty apparent. Namely, their 2 fumbles against the Seahawks, although costly during that particular game, constituted only 2 of their 76 fumbling opportunities in Week 13 (2.63%); and, more importantly, they represented only 2 of their 777 total fumbling opportunities through 12 games (0.26%). Essentially, those 2 fumbles didn't affect the overall stats that much because of the large sample size.

Nevertheless, although it may not have affected their Adjusted BS Rate very much, their fumble-prone (and interception-averse) performance against SEA did affect their component rankings in two ways. First, they dropped from 21st to 22nd in FR because their 2.63% FR on Sunday was still higher than their 2.28% FR going into Sunday's game. Second, their IRs moved up considerably in the rankings: their IR ranking rose from #13 to #10 and their Adjusted IR ranking rose from #17 to #11.

Why the big leap in IRs? Well, it's pretty simple, Alex Smith threw 0 INTs in 45 passes against SEA, and 0.00% is as good as it gets with respect to IR. What's interesting to me about the 49ers being the 10th- or 11th-best team in terms of avoiding INTs -and this should not shock you whatsoever - is that their decrease in IR has coincided perfectly with their increase in the use of shotgun, as well as their increase in passing frequency. Here's a useful table to illustrate this point:

Time Frame	% Shotgun	Passes per Game	INTs	IR
Through 9 Games	37.1%	30.9	8	2.88%
Through 10 Games	40.0%	31.1	9	2.89%
Through 11 Games	41.5%	32.0	9	2.56%
Through 12 Games	43.3%	33.1	9	2.27%

Why is this interesting to me? Well, in football, it's pretty much the conventional wisdom that more passing leads to a higher IR. Likewise, the conventional wisdom among anti-shotgun Niner fans is that more shotgun leads to a higher IR. From this table, we can see that, since SF implemented their shotgun OFF for the first time against GB, their IR has clearly defied the conventional wisdom; it's actually getting better! Indeed, over the past 3 games, Alex Smith has thrown only 1 INT in 119 passes, for an astonishingly microscopic IR of 0.84%. What's even more amazing about Smith's nearly "total" ball security is that the last 3 shotgun- and passing-heavy games have come against teams that have an average defensive IR of 3.51% (average ranking = 12th). Ho hum, just another meaningless piece of evidence that shotgun-haters are going to ignore when they argue that the Niners need to go back to running the ball or the West Coast Offense or whatever it is this week. I look forward to hearing your denials in the comments section.

As for the rest of the NFL, the biggest leapers this week were the Eagles and Cowboys, who ascended into the top 8 at the expense of the Broncos and Packers. In terms of the relationship between Adjusted BS Rate and winning, the top 8 teams are a combined 58-38, while the bottom 8 teams are a combined 31-65. A few other things I'll point out before moving on are

The Dolphins are #3 in Adjusted BS Rate despite being less than 2 full seasons removed from a 1-15 record. Meanwhile, the Niners are still only #18 despite being in a "rebuilding mode" for the past 6 years. Why isn't the Dolphins record better than 6-6 this season? Looking at the difference between their Adjusted and Unadjusted IR, you see that they've had a governor on their engine called "the toughest IR strength of schedule (SOS) in the NFL."
The same thing can be said for the other seemingly underachieving team in the top 8: The Atlanta Falcons. Yes, passes by Matt Ryan (and now Chris Redman) have been intercepted rather frequently. However, these INTs have come against the 4th-toughest IR schedule in the league.
On the flip side, DEN is in the top 8 when it comes to Unadjusted IR, but they're only a middle-of-the-road IR team when we take their 3rd-easiest IR SOS into account. So, in my mind, their 8-4 record is somewhat of a mirage insofar as it's a byproduct of ball security in the passing game.

THE REST OF THE 49ERS' FORMULA STATS

Now that I have a useful stat for measuring Total Ball Security, I can add it to the following table, which displays the Niners stats according to Singletary's Formula for Success, what those stats were last week, and what the extent of change was between this week's stats and last week's stats (top-8 in bold; bottom-8 in italics):

		This Week		Last Week		Change
Formula Ingredient	Statistic	Value	Rk	Value	Rk	Value	Rk
Total Ball Security	Adj BS Rate	97.55%	18	97.53%	18	-0.02%	0
Total Ball Security	BS Rate	97.70%	17	97.63%	19	-0.07%	+2
Total Ball Security	FR	2.32%	22	2.28%	21	-0.04%	-1
Total Ball Security	IR	2.27%	10	2.56%	13	+0.29%	+3
Total Ball Security	Adj IR	2.71%	11	2.86%	17	+0.15%	+6
Execute	Total	0.6%	17	-1.6%	20	+1.0%	+3
Execute	OFF	-7.1%	21	-10.0%	21	+2.9%	0
Execute	DEF	-7.2%	5	-7.6%	7	+0.4%	+2
Execute	ST	0.5%	16	0.8%	15	+0.3%	-1
Execute	1Q OFF	-31.9%	30	-39.3%	31	+7.4%	+1
Execute	1Q DEF	-6.8%	11	-2.7%	13	+4.1%	+2
Dominate the Trenches	OL ALY	3.23	32	3.21	32	+0.02	0
Dominate the Trenches	OL ASR	8.6%	27	9.3%	29	+0.7%	+2
Dominate the Trenches	DF7 ALY	3.65	8	3.65	7	0.00	-1
Dominate the Trenches	DF7 ASR	7.1%	7	6.7%	13	+0.4%	+6
Create Great Field Position	FG/XP Pts	1.7	14	1.1	15	+0.6	+1
Create Great Field Position	KO Pts	3.9	12	3.2	15	+0.7	+3
Create Great Field Position	KR Pts	-1.9	17	-1.9	18	0.0	+1
Create Great Field Position	P Pts	12.0	2	11.0	2	+1.0	0
Create Great Field Position	PR Pts	-13.5	32	-10.1	31	-3.4	-1
Create Great Field Position	Own 1-20 OFF	-32.2%	30	-35.2%	30	+3.0%	0
Create Great Field Position	Opp 1-20 DEF	19.5%	24	22.2%	24	+2.7%	0
Finish	4Q OFF	6.4%	16	3.2%	18	+3.2%	+2
Finish	4Q DEF	4.5%	15	2.8%	14	-1.7%	-1
Finish	Late/Close OFF	-24.8%	28	-27.7%	31	+2.9%	+3
Finish	Late/Close DEF	-11.0%	7	-13.1%	9	-2.1%	+2

Aside from the aforementioned improvement in Adjusted IR, the Niners' biggest Formula-related statistical change this week came in defensive front 7 (DF7) ASR: the 49ers' DF7 is now in the top 8 of the NFL when it comes to sacking the QB. I never thought I'd write that sentence; that's for sure.

A few other changes that are interesting...First, every offensive DVOA in this table showed improvement over last week. For reasons that I've repeated numerous times on Niners Nation, the most important offensive improvement -in my mind - is the massive jump in 1st-Quarter DVOA. Hot starts - especially on the road - are what good teams display, so, if this stat continues to improve over the final 4 games, it bodes well for next season.

Second, thanks to the Terrible Twosome of Arnaz Battle and Brandon Jones - not to be confused with the Tainted Twosome of VD and Crabs - the Niners have now lost 13.5 points-worth of field position on punt returns. A lot of fans bemoan the 49ers' awful "return teams," but in actuality it's only the punt return team that's truly awful. The kickoff return unit is below average, for sure, but they've cost the Niners about 12 fewer points-worth of field position than the punt return unit. So when you're complaining about the "return teams," focus your ire on the guys who catch, run, and block when the opponent punts the ball.

Finally, only 1 of the 5 Formula ingredients showed improvement across the board: Execute. That's obviously a good thing.

BOTTOM LINE

Based on Mike Singletary's Formula for Success:

Total Ball Security - Amazingly, the shotgun OFF has turned Smith into a ball-secure QB. Unfortunately, the Niners as a whole are still mediocre in this ingredient because Frank Gore and Arnaz Battle continue to be ball-insecure 49ers.
Execute - They're still average, but improving across the board.
Dominate in the Trenches - They're still average overall, but the DF7 is dominating in pass-rushing situations.
Create Great Field Position - They're still average. If it weren't for the pathetic punt return unit, they'd be well above average.
Finish - They're still average, but at least the OFF is catching up to the DEF.

Coming up later today or tomorrow... a very special article about Alex Smith, Shaun Hill, and the shotgun OFF.

*DVOA, ALY, and ASR statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.

Poll

Whether or not you agree with more shotgun, are you surprised that the 49ers' offensive interception rate has gone down considerably since they unveiled their new shotgun offense?

Week 13 Statistical Matchup Review: 49ers @ Seahawks

Florida Danny — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 10:24:41 -0000

The theme for today's matchup review post, similar to the theme of recent 49er teams, is "what could have been." In 2006, the Niners beat the division-leading Seahawks to pull within 1 game of the division lead at 5-5. They had a pretty favorable stretch of upcoming games against the 4-6 Rams, 6-4 Saints, and 4-6 Packers, and we got all excited. Unfortunately, they proceeded to lose all 3 of those games, only to beat the Seahawks again in Week 15 to revive our hopes once more. What happens next? As the Seahawks are in the midst of losing to the 12-2 Chargers, the Niners lay an absolute egg against the 4-10 (!!!) Cardinals to kick us in the junk one more time for good measure.

Sound familiar? This season, the Niners have brought out their junk-kicking boots once again, with their wins coming when they're seemingly out of the playoff picture, and their losses coming when they're firmly within the picture frame. This Sunday's loss was, ala the Cardinals' game in 2006, the final for-good-measure display of their junk-kicking skills.

What does this have to do with the matchup review? Well, as you'll see, this was a game that the 49ers should have won easily. The loss defied more than just statistics; it defied logic altogether. Some matchup results ended up in perfect accordance with what they needed to accomplish, and yet they still lost. In other matchups, they turned stone-cold, lead-pipe advantages into performances befitting the Keystone Kops. All in all, if you want to understand the anatomy of a kick in the junk, this Sunday's matchup with the Seahawks helps explain why 49er teams of recent vintage have continually given us their best Sisyphus impression.

Ladies and gentlemen, grab your barf bags as I present this week's statistical matchup review alternately titled, How to Lose Games and Influence Digestion.

TEAM MATCHUP #1: SEAHAWKS DEFENSIVE TREND

Before the game, I displayed a chart showing that, without fail, the Seahawks' wins and losses through 11 games had a 1-to-1 dependency on their DEF DVOA for the game: above average = Seahawks win; below average = Seahawks loss. Well, wouldn't you know it, but the 49ers decided to play the role of bedside nurse once again, giving their opponent exactly what ails them. In the case of the SEA game, it turns out that the Niners lost despite SEA having a below-average Game DEF DVOA of 24.5%; their 3rd-worst Game DEF DVOA of the season!

So basically, the Seahawks DEF sucked just about as bad as they were supposed to suck (if not worse), and yet the 49ers couldn't do what every other team that's encountered said death-spiraling Seahawk DEF has done: win the damn game. What makes matters even worse - and more odds-defying - is that the Niners' had an above-average Game OFF DVOA of 9.5%; their 3rd-best Game OFF DVOA of the season! Oh, and by the way, just for kicks, they also had an above-average Game DEF DVOA of -8.1%. Tell most any NFL team that they're going to have one of their best days on OFF, and their 4-7 opponent, whose losses occur when they play bad DEF, is going to have one of their worst days on DEF, and that team is going to tell you that an ass-whooping is what they're about to dish out. Behold the (2006 and) 2009 49ers: not most any NFL team.

After the jump, I'll make you reach for the Pepto...

TEAM MATCHUP #2: 1ST-DOWN DEFENSE

Here's another case of the odds-defying game result. Just to remind you, the first part of the equation in this matchup had to do with the 49ers's DEF having a massive advantage over the Seahawks' OFF in passing situations on 2nd down. The second part was that, given this advantage, the Niners' DEF needed to constantly put SEA's OFF in such situations by holding them to 3 yards or less on 1st down.

Interesting stat #1: SEA had 3 successful plays out of 11 passing plays on 2nd & long (27.3%); as compared to a 50% success rate on 2nd & long runs. 49ers exploit advantage? Check. Interesting stat #2: When the Niners' DEF stopped SEA's OFF for 3 yards or less on their first 1st down of a drive, such drives ended with Punt, Fumble, Punt, Punt, TD, Half, Punt, Punt, Punt. 49ers exploit advantage? Check.

Interesting stat #3: On the lone TD drive in the previous list, the 49ers' DEF gave up 2 of the Seahawks' 3 successful 2nd-down passing plays in the entire game. 49ers blow advantage? Check. Interesting stat #4: When the Niners' DEF didn't stop SEA's OFF for 3 yards or less on their first 1st down of a drive, such drives ended with TD, Punt, Punt, Punt, FG, Punt, FG. 49ers blow advantage? Check.

Interesting stat #5: Before Arnaz Battle's fumble, SF's DEF was 4 for 4 (i.e., a perfect 100% success rate) in holding SEA's OFF to 3 yards or less on 1st down. 49ers exploit advantage? Check. Interesting stat #6: After Battle's fumble, SF's DEF was 13 for 25 (i.e., a lackluster 52% success rate) in holding SEA's OFF to 3 yards or less on 1st down. Battle blows DEF's advantage? Check.

So, my point here is that the matchup played out exactly as expected. When Matt Hasselbeck and company passed the ball on 2nd & long, it worked in the 49ers' favor. Otherwise, it didn't. When the Niners' DEF started a drive by putting SEA into 2nd & long, it ultimately worked in the 49ers' favor on the drive. Otherwise, it didn't. When the coaching staff wasn't calling ridiculous special teams plays, and pinning their hopes on the tandem of "Human Roster Exemption" and "Worst WR-Signing of 2009," it worked in the Niner DEF's favor. Otherwise, it didn't.

The fact of the matter is, however, that this matchup worked out in the 49ers' favor far more than it didn't, and yet, they still lost the game. Why? How about 3 matchup-defying epic fails: a 15-yard gain on 2nd & 8, a 25-yard gain on 2nd & 7, and a 32-yard gain on 1st & 10. The first 2 came on SEA's 2nd TD drive (if you want to call the 1st one "a drive"), and the third came on SEA's final game-winning drive. Interesting stat #7: 3 epic matchup fails = 49ers loss.

TEAM MATCHUP #3: PASS DEFENSE IN THE RED ZONE

Do I really have to say much about this one? The Niners' DEF had a 167.9% (!!!) DVOA advantage if/when SEA threw red zone passes, and was coming off a game in which the dropped the hammer on the Jaguars' similarly disadvantaged OFF in this exact game situation. So much for that, I guess: Both of SEA's TDs came on red zone passes. Nice job, guys. Revised interesting stat # 7: 5 epic fails = 49ers loss.

PLAYER MATCHUP # 1: FRANK GORE VS. SEA PASS DEF

Remember how, in last week's matchup review, I lauded the 49ers' coaching staff for exploiting Frank Gore's advantage against JAX's DEF in the passing game? Remember how I mentioned that he was the target for 25% of Alex Smith's passes in the JAX game, and how Smith threw 6 of his first 9 passes to Gore? After looking at the SEA-game play-by-play, they're resigned to remain exactly that: memories.

Against the Seahawks, Gore was the target of a Smith pass only 7 times, or only 15.5% of Smith's 45-pass total. What's worse is that, after being the target of Smith's 3rd pass of the game, Gore did not have a ball thrown his way for 14 straight passes! A certain pearl of 1980s pop culture comes to mind here: Hello? McFly?

This one is definitely on the coaches. How do you go into a game against the 26th-ranked pass DEF vs. RBs, and throw Gore the ball like he's Roger Craig, but then go into the following game against the #27 pass DEF vs. RBs, and throw him the ball like he's Billy Bajema? It makes absolutely no sense to me. The worst part is that 4 of Gore's 5 catches ended up being successful plays for the Niners' OFF. Hello? McFly? Re-revised interesting stat #7: 5 epic fails and 1 coaching fail = 49ers loss.

MISCELLANEOUS MATCHUPS

SF 1st-quarter OFF vs. SEA 1st-quarter DEF...Enough of the epic failing; let's go back to the "lose despite epic success" theme. I don't need to give you the play-by-play for you to know that the Niners's OFF shot, roasted, and ate the Seahawks DEF during the 1st quarter. If not for one of the worst non-calls I've ever seen, the Niners would have been up 14-0 only 8:35 into the game. And, to me, 14-0 is meaningfully different than 7-0. To an NFL team, being down by 7 in the 1st quarter means "only one score away." But, to a 4-7 NFL team like the Seahawks, only 2 weeks removed from receiving a 35-9 beatdown at the hands of the Vikings, being down by 14 midway through the 1st quarter means "I can't wait to clean out my locker and get the hell out of here."

I don't care what anyone says, but the fact that the 49ers' 1st-quarter dominance on offense didn't end up helping them win the game is something you can pin squarely on the backs of the inept officiating tandem that saw no evil on that play. Of course, were you at all surprised that (non-)call went the other way? Remember, the alternate title of this movie is How to Lose Games and Influence Digestion. Getting that call isn't in the script.

SF Shotgun OFF vs. SEA Shotgun DEF...One more epic coaching fail for you guys before I'm done. Before the game, I mentioned how SEA's DEF is 6th-worst in the NFL when it comes to efficiency on plays when the opposing OFF lines up in shotgun. As was the case in the Jags game, the Niners needed more shotgun. It turns out they used even more shotgun OFF against SEA (62.1% of all plays) than they did against JAX (55.7%). The coaches are fine so far.

Where the epic coaching fail begins is related to something I've been talking about for weeks: the benefit of shotgun to the running game. Against the Seahawks, the 49ers' OFF had a 44.4% play success rate from the shotgun formation, and a 36.4% play success rate when Smith lined up under center; so, yeah, we know already, shotgun is more efficient overall.

The interesting things about the SEA game are (a) the pass OFF was slightly more efficient under center (50.0%) than they were in shotgun (46.9% success rate), and (b) the run OFF was a pathetic 0 for 7 (success rate = 0.0%) on running plays in non-shotgun formations!!!

Why? Hmm. Might the former have something to do with the fact that 7 of Gore's 9 carries were on non-shotgun plays? Might somebody be telegraphing their passing plays? Might the entire world know that, when the 49ers line up in shotgun, they're going to pass the ball? Might it be a little less difficult to defend the pass when a team knows it's coming? Hmm. And might the latter have something to do with the fact that, against SEA, the Niners were 6 times as likely to run the ball when under center than when in shotgun? Or perhaps it has something to do with the fact that, except for one drive in which they mysteriously exhumed their Gore-up-the-middle-three-times-then-punt OFF, all of Gore's runs came on 1st down? Hmm.

Hopefully, you're getting my point for the 100th time. One of the main reasons I cited for shotgun being useful for the 49ers and their inept OL is that it allows an OFF to disguise their play-calls. If you run out of shotgun efficiently, it will be nearly impossible for the DEF to know when you're going to run because the norm for NFL DEF's is to defend pass first against shotgun. DEFs defending pass first = easier blocking for the OL on running plays.

So, one of the main benefits of shotgun is disguise. But here we have a game in which the coaching staff (read Jimmy Raye) somehow was able to force his telegraphing nature into an offense specifically designed to avoid telegraphing. Want to know what one SEA defensive coach said to the others? It goes like this: "Hey guys, when Smith is in shotgun, they're passing. But if he's under center on 1st down, they're running." Amazing. When a nerdy, armchair DC like me can figure this out, it means that the Niners' OC (and the rest of the offensive coaches) committed an epic fail.

Re-re-revised interesting stat #7: 5 epic fails and 2 coaching fails = 49ers loss.

BOTTOM LINE

Aside from specific epic fails, here are the main matchup-related reasons why the 49ers lost to the Seahawks:

They did something no other team had done against SEA this season: Lose despite their OFF utterly dominating SEA's DEF.
Battle's fumble gave SEA's OFF life after the Niners' DEF was utterly dominating them on 1st down.
A blown PI call nullified the Niner OFF's utter domination of SEA's DEF in the 1st quarter.
Total matchup meltdown in red zone pass DEF, the initial catalyst of which was Battle's fumble putting the pass DEF in a position to fail.
Poor gameplanning by the offensive coaches rendered Gore relatively nonexistent in the passing game.
Poor "self-scouting" by the offensive coaches rendered the 49ers' run and pass tendencies transparent, which thereby nullified their massive shotgun advantage.

The first sentence of my SF/SEA matchup preview was, "Unlike last week, a win today is going to be a team effort." It turns out I was exactly right from a matchup perspective: losing these matchups was a total team effort. Offensive players contributed to the matchup fails (e.g., Gore fumble), defensive players contributed to the matchup fails (e.g., red zone pass DEF fails), and a special teams player (who should be taking the next "special" bus out of town) even found a way to contribute to non-ST matchup fails - he's that talented! Throw on top of that the contribution of offensive coaches, and you have the anatomy of a "what could have been" loss.

Thanks for another kick in the junk, guys.

*DVOA statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.

Poll

Which of the following is THE MOST IMPORTANT REASON why the 49ers repeatedly lose games they should win?

Week 13 Statistical Matchup: 49ers @ Seahawks

Florida Danny — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 20:16:47 -0000

Fooch's Note: Don't forget to join us in today's first game thread.

Unlike last week, a win today is going to be a team effort. Don't have a lot of time here, so I won't waste any time telling you that, by reading this, you're getting a point-by-point foreshadowing of what you're going to watch about an hour from now. Let's get going.

TEAM MATCHUP #1: SEAHAWKS DEFENSIVE TREND

Last week, I told you it was the Jaguars' OFF that was their catalyst to victory. This week, it's exactly the opposite. Here's a chart showing how the Seahawks' DEF has performed in its wins and losses:

The trend here is as straightforward as it gets. When SEA's DEF plays above average, they win. When their DEF plays below average, they lose. Plain and simple. So what are chances that SEA's DEF is going to play above average today? Well, here are two stats for you that should tell you what I'm thinking: (a) The 49ers' OFF is 13.6% better on the road than at home; and (b) The Seahawks' DEF is 27.7% worse at home than on the road. If the past is prologue, this bodes well for the Niners. It's up to their OFF to exploit this matchup advantage.

After the jump, I'll present a few more matchups that seem to suggest this is a very winnable game for our San Francisco 49ers...

TEAM MATCHUP #2: 1ST-DOWN DEFENSE

Unlike 1st- and 3rd-down stats, 2nd-down stats are relatively unimportant. How they become important is if there's such a clear 2nd-down advantage/trend, that it makes efficient performance on 1st down a necessity. That's the case today when the 49ers are on DEF. Specifically, SEA currently has the #30 pass OFF on 2nd down (-27.7%), while SF has the #6 pass DEF on 2nd down (-19.5%). Furthermore, SEA has the #31 pass OFF on 2nd & long (-37.0%), while SF has the #2 pass DEF on 2nd & long (-44.2%). Therefore, it's pretty imperative that the Niners' DEF plays well on 1st down, so they can exploit their clear matchup advantage when SEA is in a passing situation on 2nd down.

TEAM MATCHUP #3: PASS DEFENSE IN THE RED ZONE

Similar to last week, the Niners have a massive advantage if SEA has to pass in the red zone. In fact, it's even bigger than last week's: 167.9%!!! Given how well SF's DEF exploited this matchup against the Jaguars, I'm confident they can do it again against the Seahawks if the situation presents itself.

TEAM MATCHUP # 3: 2ND-HALF DEFENSE

If the Niners take a lead into the 2nd half, the Seahawks' game presents a real opportunity to close out a contest on DEF. That's because SEA is #25 in 2nd-Half OFF DVOA (-18.0%), while the SF is #2 in 2nd-Half DEF DVOA (-18.7%). Furthermore, if the game happens to be close in the 2nd half, the 49ers' DEF enjoys a similar 31.8% advantage (#9 SF DEF vs. #25 SEA OFF). So, if there was any game in which to secure an early lead, this one might be it. Get the game into the 2nd half, and SF's DEF should bring the team home for victory.

PLAYER MATCHUP # 1: FRANK GORE VS. SEA PASS DEF

This one's pretty much exactly the same as last week's matchup advantage against the Jaguars: SEA has the #27 DEF DVOA against RBs in the passing game, and Gore, though he's dropped a bit in the RB Receiving DVOA rankings, is still near the top of the league. So, like last week, Jimmy Raye needs to get Gore involved in the passing game early and often.

MISCELLANEOUS MATCHUPS

SF 1st-quarter OFF vs. SEA 1st-quarter DEF...Unlike in their matchup with JAX, the 49ers' actually might be able to have that elusive 10-point 1st quarter that we've all been waiting for. That's because the Seahawks rank 26th in 1st-Quarter DEF DVOA (16.6%), which is light years worse than what the Jags' was going into last week's game (11th, -3.8%).

SF OFF while winning vs. SEA DEF while losing...The Seahawks are almost equally as bad as the Jaguars when it comes to keeping the score where it's at when they're behind. Specifically, they're ranked 22nd when losing by 7 or less (DVOA = 10.0%), and 20th when losing by 8 or more (DVOA = 13.3%). Furthermore, if the Niners can take a slim lead into the 2nd half, their tendency to "go conservative" will be offset by the Seahawks' #30 DEF DVOA when the game is late and close (20.7%).

SF Shotgun OFF vs. SEA Shotgun DEF...Just like last week, this is a great matchup for the 49ers. SEA isn't ranked dead last in Shotgun DEF DVOA, but they're really close (27th, 27.5%). I've got a fever, and the only remedy is more shotgun!

BOTTOM LINE

Based on the statistical matchups, here are the keys to a 49er victory on Sunday:

Jump out to an early lead.
Use the shotgun as much as they did against JAX.
Pass the ball to Gore early and often.
Play efficient DEF on 1st down to get SEA into passing situations on 2nd down.

This really does seem like a game that the 49ers should win, given their matchup advantages. Hopefully, I'm Nostradamus for the 3rd week in a row. I'll see you back here on Tuesday with my matchup review. GO NINERS!

*DVOA statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.

Football Outsiders and the 49ers: Player Stats through Week 12

Florida Danny — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 10:17:53 -0000

Yesterday, I noted some pretty promising statistical improvements for the 49ers' OFF. Today, we'll see whether stats and rankings for the Niners' offensive players have also improved as one would expect; or perhaps the whole is greater than the sum of its parts? To this end, I'll be adding the same kind of change stats I've started presenting in my other posts this week. Again, it's the direction of change, not necessarily its magnitude, that's more important from my perspective.

This week, QBs need a total of at least 90 passes to qualify as having valid FO stats, RBs need at least 96 carries, WRs need at least 38 targets, and TEs need at least 18 targets. Therefore, the players I'll be breaking down this week are Alex Smith, Frank Gore, Michael Crabtree, Josh Morgan, and Vernon Davis. I'll also, of course, be presenting FO stats for the OL, the defensive front 7 (DF7), and the secondary.

QUARTERBACKS

Here are Smith's stats through 208 passes this season (bold = ranked 8th or better [top 25% of starters]; italics = ranked 25th or worse [bottom 25% of starters]):

	This Week		Last Week		Change
Statistic	Value	Rk	Value	Rk	Value	Rk
DYAR per Pass	0.20	24	0.20	25	0.00	+1
YAR per Pass	0.50	23	0.12	25	+0.38	+2
EYds per Pass	5.31	25	5.23	25	+0.08	0
Yds per Pass	5.78	25	5.81	24	-0.03	-1
DVOA	-7.9%	24	-7.9%	25	0.0%	0
VOA	-3.2%	23	-9.2%	25	+6.0%	+2

As you can see, the only things that have showed any meaningful improvement are Smith's unadjusted stats, YAR/P and VOA. Not surprisingly, the 49ers' unadjusted OFF Pass VOA is what showed meaningful improvement among their team stats. Obviously, Smith threw every pass against the Jaguars, so this is kind of a "duh" finding. However, the important point is that Smith and the Niners had a productive passing attack against JAX, but more than just "productive" is what was expected against the 31st-ranked JAX pass DEF. Nevertheless, you have to crawl before you walk, so Smith and the Niners' pass OFF need to pass well against bad pass DEFs before he/they can start passing well against good DEFs.

After the jump, I'll present and discuss the rest of the stats ...

RUNNING BACKS

Here are Gore's stats through 128 carries so far this season (bold = ranked 8th or better; italics = ranked 25th or worse):

	This Week		Last Week		Change
Statistic	Value	Rk	Value	Rk	Value	Rk
DYAR per Run	0.48	20	0.58	17	-0.10	-3
YAR per Run	0.30	25	0.48	20	-0.18	-5
EYds per Run	4.20	22	4.38	22	-0.18	0
Yds per Run	5.03	5	5.46	3	-0.43	-2
DVOA	3.3%	19	6.2%	16	-2.9%	-3
VOA	-0.9%	24	3.6%	18	-4.5%	-6

Interesting, eh? Gore's stats - adjusted and unadjusted - got worse across the board, yet, the 49ers' Rush OFF VOA improved after the Jags game and their Rush OFF DVOA stayed essentially the same. What gives?

Well, there are two phenomena at play here. First, realize that play-by-play efficiency as a team is compared to the average of other NFL teams, whereas play-by-play efficiency as an individual is compared to the average of other players at that position. So, it seems as though the Niners' running game is getting better relative to the rest of the league, but Gore's running is getting worse relative to other RBs. Second - and this should be far more obvious - Gore's not the only player carrying the ball in the Niners' run OFF. As it specifically relates to the Jags game, remember that Delanie Walker had an 11-yard carry on 2nd & 2, and Alex Smith had a 10-yard scramble on 2nd & 7, both of which are considered highly efficient plays according to DVOA.

So, keep these two points in mind as we move forward in the post. They're going to reappear a few more times before we're done.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Here are Crabtree's stats through 44 targets so far this season (bold = ranked 16th or better; italics = ranked 49th or worse):

	This Week		Last Week		Change
Statistic	Value	Rk	Value	Rk	Value	Rk
DYAR per Target	-0.43	67	-0.22	60	-0.21	-7
YAR per Target	-0.02	61	0.03	58	-0.05	-3
EYds per Target	5.16	71	5.47	67	-0.31	-4
Yds per Target	7.86	36	8.11	33	-0.25	-3
DVOA	-18.9%	69	-15.7%	62	-3.2%	-7
VOA	-13.1%	62	-12.3%	58	-0.8%	-4

Like Gore, we see decline across the board when it comes to Crabtree. However, you'll notice that each of his adjusted stats declined more drastically than his unadjusted stats. So, his stats display similar opponent-dependent characteristics to that of Smith. Hope you're sensing a theme here. Regardless, though, I'll say the same thing I did last week: I'm not worried about Crabs, no matter what the stats say.

Here are Morgan's stats through 51 targets so far this season:

	This Week		Last Week		Change
Statistic	Value	Rk	Value	Rk	Value	Rk
DYAR per Target	-0.41	65	0.16	55	-0.57	-10
YAR per Target	0.10	57	0.42	50	-0.32	-7
EYds per Target	5.67	67	6.56	54	-0.89	-13
Yds per Target	6.82	55	7.09	51	-0.27	-4
DVOA	-18.0%	66	-10.5%	55	-7.5%	-11
VOA	-11.5%	58	-7.3%	50	-4.2%	-8

OK. This is a little bit more problematic for me because these are massive declines across the board. It almost defies belief that Morgan's EYds/T can drop that much from targets 44 to 51 on the season. I still say that Morgan will be fine in the long-run as a productive #2 WR once he learns his new position. However, what his stats show is that, contrary to how the saying goes, a rising tide does not necessarily lift all boats. Having only 2 successful plays in 8 targets, and only 1 reception go for more than 10 yards, against the 29th-ranked pass DEF against #2 WRs pretty much defines inefficiency.

TIGHT ENDS

Here are VD's stats through 92 targets (bold = ranked 8th or better; italics = ranked 25th or worse):

	This Week		Last Week		Change
Statistic	Value	Rk	Value	Rk	Value	Rk
DYAR per Target	1.18	18	1.08	17	+0.10	-1
YAR per Target	1.21	18	1.10	19	+0.11	+1
EYds per Target	7.80	19	7.53	21	+0.27	+2
Yds per Target	7.28	19	7.24	22	+0.04	+3
DVOA	11.8%	18	10.4%	18	1.4%	0
VOA	12.2%	18	10.6%	18	1.6%	0

If I could call Alex Smith "the #25 QB in the NFL" last week based on the consistency of his rankings, then I can dub VD "the #18 TE in the NFL." Of course, that's far more tongue-in-cheek than my Smith evaluation. We all know VD's much better than his stats show, and, after last week's post, we should all know that the reason these stats are what they are is because VD's tied for 2nd-most-targeted TE in the NFL. So bottom line is, don't freak out.

What is accurately reflected in the table is the fact that the Niners' overall pass OFF improvement has ridden the wave of VD (Aside: Sorry for all the nautical references today. I'm trying to give the STD references a week off.). It's clear that, based on his number of targets, the pass OFF goes as VD goes; based on his increasing EYards/T, VD goes as his new downfield-passing QB goes; and based on his DVOA, the Niners' level of efficiency in the passing game goes as throwing the ball downfield to VD goes.

Finally, as this is my last chance to really mention it, I'll just also quickly note that the Smith did a really good job of spreading the ball around against JAX. Specifically, among the 3 pass catchers I've detailed today, VD had 9 targets, Morgan had 8 targets, and Crabtree had 7 targets. For sure, this is a pleasant development. Having 3 legitimate options in the passing attack definitely beats having 1, which seemed to be the case just 8 weeks ago.

OFFENSIVE LINE

Here's the OL's directional run-blocking chart (bold = top 8; italics = bottom 8):

In my enthusiasm over Adjusted BS Rate, I totally forgot to mention the fact that the 49ers' OL is now ranked dead last in the league. Granted, their actual ALY only dropped 0.02 yards per carry, but it's still an ignominious achievement. Once again, though, it's interesting to see how, although the Niners' Rush OFF DVOA has gotten considerably better since Smith took over at QB, the OL deserves very little, if any, of the credit. This doesn't really fit well with my theory related to the run-blocking benefits of increased shotgun, so I'm pretty much stumped. All I can think of is that perhaps (a) more of the rush OFF's short gains are ending up as "successful plays" because of the down and distance, and/or (b) adjusting line yards for the caliber of an opponents' DF7 is different than adjusting Rush OFF DVOA for the caliber of an opponents' rush DEF overall. In other words, it's déjà vu all over again in this post.

With respect to directional ALY, not much has changed. The OL continues to improve in LE ALY, but that's still most likely due to a regression to the mean; and the same thing probably goes for RE ALY given they don't run the ball in that direction very much either. Otherwise, the glaring problem remains. Jimmy Raye loves to run the ball up the middle despite the fact that his OL absolutely sucks blocking in that direction.

DEFENSIVE FRONT SEVEN

Here's the DF7's directional run-stopping chart (bold = top 8; italics = bottom 8):

The big changes here occurred on runs up the middle and behind RT. Essentially, the DF7 got struck by a triple whammy of (a) having JAX run the ball fewer times in those directions than the 49ers were previously accustomed to, (b) having those runs go for more yardage than the 49ers were previously accustomed to allowing, and (c) having those yards allowed come via the directions in which the otherwise-top-tier JAX OL were least proficient. Add those 3 things up and you have a DF7 whose C/G ALY ranking dropped 6 spots (up 0.40 yards per carry), and whose RT ALY ranking dropped 3 spots (up 0.13 yards per carry). At least in this instance the changes in player stats matched the changes in team stats: remember, the Niners' Rush DEF DVOA got 1.4% worse after the JAX game.

DEFENSIVE BACKFIELD

Finally, here's the chart showing stats for the secondary against various intended receivers (bold = top 8; italics = bottom 8):

Pretty much everything is the same here, including the fact that starting Dre Bly didn't seem to adversely affect the Niners' pass DEF against opposing #1 WRs. Of course, defending Mike Sims-Walker is just a tad bit easier than defending Andre Johnson, Reggie Wayne, and Greg Jennings. There is one descent-sized change, though: DVOA against receiving RBs. Another week, another game full of screen passes that gouge the 49ers' pass DEF.

BOTTOM LINE

OK, so through 11 games, we can draw the following conclusions about several players on the 2009 49ers:

Alex Smith: Still better than Hill, though not as instrumental in the pass OFF's improvement as you might think.
Frank Gore: Making the 49ers' run OFF better, but not making his own stats better.
Michael Crabtree and Josh Morgan: Give them time.
Vernon Davis: Instrumental in the pass OFF's improvement.
The OL: Now officially the worst in the league.
The DF7: Great when not encountering triple whammies.
The secondary: Still better without Nate Clements; not better with Dre Bly.

Later this morning: 49ers-Seahawks game matchup.

**DVOA, DYAR, EYds, and ALY statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.