Houston is a great defensive team with two outstanding perimeter defenders.  By only starting the halves with 2 scoring threats Brandon and LaMarcus, we are playing into their hands.  I love Joel but he is not a threat to score.  Likewise this matchup is horrible for Batum ( I love his defense and hustle) but he is a no show in this series on that offensive end.  Against Houston without any spacing this causes Blake to be very ineffective as well.  He cannot create without spacing.  Against a defensive team like Houston he performs better with lineups with more scoring threats that open up the floor.  Unfortunately, our starting lineup enables Houston to focus on only stopping two elements, which they are doing quite effectively.

Sometimes just the threat of a defense having to respect/fear that Outlaw may go off, Rudy may go back door or shoot deep or that Greg may posterize someone can make things infinitely easier on Brandon, Lamarcus and to a great extent make Blake more effective.  Just like Nate made the adjustment toward the end of the year to always have Brandon or LaMarcus in at all times to avoid scoring droughts, I feel we need to have a quick hook if we fall behind early and play the remainder of the game (foul trouble permitting) with at least 3 perceived scoring threats at all times on the floor from  a combination of Brandon, LaMarcus, Rudy, Greg and Travis.  Play Batum in the 2nd half within one of these combinations.

This was my gut feeling that I mentioned in the game chat repeatedly.  Wanting to confirm my beliefs I went to the tape and the play by play summaries of games 1-3 bear this out.

Game 1

1st Half       Starting Lineup      -10

Nate finally subs in Oden, Rudy, and Outlaw at the 2:02 mark with the score 30-20 Houston.  we finish the quarter down a total of 11 points.

2nd Half     Starting Lineup       -7

Nate subs in Outlaw at the 7:35 mark, we are down 74-49.  Houston started the half on a 12-5 run.  After the substitution we basically stay even and finish the quarter down an additional 2 points.

Game 2

1st Half      Starting Lineup       -2

Nate subs in Outlaw at the 5:39 mark with the score 17-15 Houston.  We finish the

quarter 2 up 28-26

2nd Half     Starting Lineup      -3

We start the half up 2 53-51.  With the starters in Houston goes on a quick 12-3 run to start the half. ( Brandon saves the day by hitting tough contested shots as with this lineup we were quickly down 7) Oden enters the game when we are down 1 63-62 at the 5:24 mark. We finish the quarter tied at 72.

Game  3     

1st Half      Starting Lineup      -5

Nate subs in Outlaw with 5:11 left, we find ourselves in the all too familiar position down early 11-6.  We stabilize but the damage is done we end the quarter down 6.

2nd Half      Starting Lineup      -6

We start the half down 48-37.  Houston goes on an immediate 6-0 run to be up 54-37.   White flag time we sub Travis at the 9:10 mark and we immediately go on a 7-0 run and finish the quarter down only 7 cutting 10 points off of the lead

That lineup with only two scoring threats on the floor against Houston is a combined -33   in only 36 and half minutes of play. (they are a minus 1 per minute)  They have lost all 6 starts to the half of the first 3 games.

The staff needs to make adjustments.  Houston is unique, we can go back to normal lineups/rotations in the next series.  We are digging ourselves a hole against a great defensive team that is taking tremendous energy to overcome.  You know what they say about when you are in hole, stop digging. 

I think Rudy got jobbed during the dunk competition.  The NBA got their predetermined fantasy finals matchup but Rudy made us all proud.  He did way better than I expected and should have been in the finals because of the level of difficulty and creativity in his dunks.  He is way more athletic than he has had the opportunity to show and that bodes well for things to come in the future.  I loved his sense of history with the acknowledgement of former Blazer great Fernando Martin (actually a touching tribute to the first Spanish NBA player coincidentally drafted by Portland, who died tragically in 1989) .  I also think that Rudy played admirably in the rookie game and if he would have had teammates that actually mixed in a pass once in a while (Michael Beasley I am talking to you) he would have had even greater numbers.

I feel it would be a classy move to start him and have the Portland fans and announcer acknowledge his All Star Weekend efforts on Wednesday with a standing ovation (in addition to Brandon and Greg's selections).  This would reinforce why Portland is a great place to play and give the fans an opportunity to show their appreciation for all players who do something special.

In addition, we might actually get off to a good start for a change after the way we have been playing the past few games.  It could be the Start of a beautiful finish.