SB Nation Blog: Fooch

We're #1! We're #1!

Fooch — Fri, 04 Jul 2008 21:20:03 -0000

Hopefully everybody's off having a great 4th of July. Nothing says Happy 4th of July like the annual Nathan's hot dog eating contest on Coney Island. Actual quote: "It's July 4 and we're in the epicenter of patriotism here at Coney Island" (of course also heard: "The passion is raw, but the hot dogs are cooked!").

Anyways, congratulations are in order for the Bay Area's own Joey Chestnut, a resident of San Jose. Chestnut defended his crown, defeating Takeru "The Tsunami" Kobayashi in a tiebreaker. After 10 minutes they were tied at 59 hot dogs, so they had a run off where the fastest to eat 5 hot dogs was the winner. Chestnut won this first ever tie-breaker to bring glory and honor to America.

Enjoy a safe 4th of July and we'll see you later this weekend.

via blogs.dailyillini.com

Semi-rational irrational prediction: 49ers TE Vernon Davis will make the Pro Bowl this season

Fooch — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 04:12:08 -0000

So what exactly is a semi-rational irrational prediction? Well, it's irrational because there is very little new information that would make this a valid prediction. We all are hoping certain things happen, but it's a long season and considering we haven't reached training camp, who knows what will happen. I term it semi-rational though because I do have some sound reasoning for this prediction, or at least reasonably sound I guess. Feel free to create your own semi-rational irrational prediction, or just mock mine.

Vernon Davis finished 2007 with 52 receptions for 509 yards and 4 touchdowns. Those are respectable numbers for an anemic offense, but nothing to write home about. However, among the 47 NFL tight ends with at least 1 reception and/or 1 receiving yard, The Disease finished 4th in receptions, 6th in receiving yards and 6th in touchdowns. The tight ends ahead of him were the usual suspects, including Jason Witten, Chris Cooley and Jeremy Shockey.

Jason Witten finished with 96 receptions, 1,145 yards and 7 touchdowns. Chris Cooley finished with 66 receptions, 786 yards and 8 touchdowns. Jeremy Shockey finished with 57 receptions, 619 yards and 3 touchdowns.

In the new Mike Martz offense, Frank Gore is expected to have a big year in the Marshall Faulk role. We're all hoping Alex Smith/Shaun Hill is able to put up big numbers, or at least better than average. However, of all the offensive weapons, I think Vernon Davis is due to have the big breakout season. I remain completely convinced that Vernon Davis will soon be joining the continuing evolution of the tight end position with the likes of Antonio Gates.

Mike Martz has not used the tight end much in his offense, but he's never had a tight end that can match the rare combination of size and speed The Disease possesses. When Davis is lined up as a tight end, no linebacker can cover him. Check the video from the Bengals game last season where Davis made the linebacker look absolutely helpless on this touchdown catch (at the 1:15 mark and ignore the Limp Bizkit). At the same time, he is too big and physical for a corner or safety to cover him like normal.

While there are clearly several keys to the offense turning things around (o-line, QB, RB, WR, etc...), if this team makes the playoffs, Vernon Davis will have had a big year. There was a lot of discussion during OTAs about the installation of "hot reads." I think Davis will be one of the primary beneficiaries. Furthermore, I consider Davis more of a receiver than a tight end (even though he can fill both roles obviously). As such, drafted receivers often take 2 or 3 years before they make that leap in greatness. This is his 3rd year and I think the leap is at hand.

As far as what it will take to make it to the Pro Bowl? Well I'll give you this prediction and say that it will be sufficient to get him in. Davis will finish the season with 73 receptions, 805 yards and 7 touchdowns. Maybe it's a little irrational to think he'll make the leap, but I think there is some sound reasoning for that position.

So, let's open the floor. You're more than welcome to criticize or support my prediction, but I'd love to hear a single semi-rational irrational prediction from you folks. I'm sure there's one guy on the team that you just have a gut-feeling about how he'll do and want to shout it on the rooftops. So, let's hear it. And even better, I've created a separate section for this called Preview. So it'll be that much easier to find this wild and crazy predictions when the season comes to a close.

Early 49ers Fantasy Info

Fooch — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 22:54:31 -0000

As we get ready for training camp and the preseason, the time is also fast approaching for preparing for fantasy football drafts. I'm planning on starting positional previews for fantasy purposes in the next few days. For now, Rotoworld did a quick tour of the NFC West. There wasn't anything earth shattering but definitely a couple things to think about for your fantasy drafts and for the 49ers season in general.

Since Mike Martz aggressively praises all his players, it's hard to get a read on San Francisco's jumbled roster . . . Perhaps the most promising thing to come out of summer reports is Martz's eagerness to split Vernon Davis out wide and use him often as a receiver. Martz hasn't used tight ends as receivers much in the past, but he could be adjusting his playbook. … It's also clear that the offense will run through Frank Gore, like Martz once did for Marshall Faulk. Expect at least 70 catches. I see the world through Gore-colored glasses, but I think fewer carries will keep him healthy.

The Vernon Davis and Frank Gore comments aren't exactly shocking. However, I do think that Vernon Davis definitely has the potential for the biggest breakout season fantasy or otherwise. Frank Gore has always been a back who gets a lot of receptions, and considering the use of Faulk in the past, this isn't surprising.

Vernon Davis is a great talent, but Martz has never been a big user of the tight end in the past. Over at Turf Show Times, our Rams blog, VanRam had the following to say:

Long time Rams fans won't recall any big seasons for tight ends under Martz. In fact, prior to last season when Randy McMichael had 39 catches, 431 yards and 3 TDs (considered a disappointment and the fewest balls McMichael has caught since his rookie season in '02), the last time a Rams TE had more than 35 catches was in 2001 when Ernie Conwell had 38 catches, 441 yards and 4 TDs.

Of course, we all know The Disease is no Randy McMichael or Ernie Conwell. I've said it before, and I'll say it again, Isaac Bruce may be our "#1 wide receiver," but Vernon Davis is our most talented pass catcher. He is the guy who could be the game breaker. Plenty more to come on that of course.

A little July 4th 49ers touch football

Fooch — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 03:49:35 -0000

There is a lot of quality writing here at SB Nation, but I miss much of it because of the sheer volume of sites. So I added the RSS feed for the football sites and have been able to check out the latest and greatest headlines. I mention this because I came across an interesting post that has inspired a post of my own. Over at Buc Em, our Bucaneers blog, new author NoahChestnut had an ingenius post about a six-on-six flag football contest among the Bucs.

Flag and touch football are always a ton of fun and traditions for many on July 4th before the BBQ. That got me thinking, what current 49ers would make up a solid touch football squad for a game on the beach. To make it a little more interesting, I thought I'd come up with two 4-man squads to face off against each other. And of course, feel free to throw out comments on who you think you would make for solid touch football players. Buc Em put together a whole 6-round draft, but I'm just thinking we'll come up with a pair of teams more or less randomly.

From what I've seen most players can throw a spiral, so we don't necessarily need to have a true quarterback at the QB position. And considering some of the people with whom I've played touch football, it's definitely not a must. Also, this is competitive enough where I don't think you'd see many of the bigger offensive and defensive linemen on the field. Although, I suppose they would be the guy designated to run the short routes when you're looking to move the chains. So I guess, consider yourself the honorary captain and pick sides.

We'll have the red team and the white team and let's hear why you think a player is suited for a certain position. Since they'll be playing both way let us know where on defense a given guy will play as well. One rule I will implement is that you have to select 2 offensive 49ers and 2 defensive 49ers. No real reason, but I think it would keep things interesting. You can substitute max one special teamer (Lee, Nedney, or Rossum) on either side. The offense will consist of a quarterback and three wide receivers and those guys will then need to play deep safety, corner #1, corner #2 and pass rusher. Remember, the pass rusher has to count to 5 Mississippi (or is alligator?) before he can rush the quarterback.

RED TEAM
QB/Deep Safety - Arnaz Battle - I couldn't resist the former quarterback here. He can throw the ball but you know he'll be there to mix in some trickeration. When I've played in the past, I'm a big fan of the QB lateral throw to the wide receiver who then throws deep.

WR #1/Corner #1 - Ashley Lelie - He may not do jack for the 49ers, but with his blazing speed I can definitely see him as an impressive touch football player. One of the most successful plays is just a fly pattern by your fastest guy. I could see Battle sending Lelie to the house and just chucking it up. In touch football, who cares if you can't run correct routes.

WR #2/Corner #2 - Nate Clements - Lockdown is a guy who likes getting the ball in his hands whether it be interceptions or punt returns. While he seems like a quiet guy on the field, he seems like he would talk a lot of smack after a big play in a touch football game. His ESPN scouting report indicates he can "flip his hips and change directions effectively in the open field" and I think that is key for a game on the beach. Playing football on the beach can be a pain when you're trying to juke the guy covering you in the sand.

WR #3/Pass Rusher - Patrick Willis - While he has speed, I don't think he has what it takes to cover a wide receiver. Instead, imagine you're the opposing QB and Bamm Bamm is coming after you. You know it won't be a simple "touch." On the offensive end I could see him filling that quick in or out role to pick up a few yards at a time (I fill that role admirably thanks to my complete lack of speed).

GOLD TEAM
QB/Pass Rusher - Joe Nedney - I can definitely see Nedney standing tall in the pocket delivering passes. I went with him as the pass rusher because I just don't see him covering the necessary space in the secondary to protect the deep pass.

WR #1/Deep Safety - Dashon Goldson - His scouting report indicates a weakness in man to man coverage, so I think defensively he's suited for that deep safety position. I'm a little worried about the overall speed, but I think he can make some plays for the Gold Team.

WR #2/Corner #1 - Vernon Davis - Every touch game has the trash talker who won't shut up about how great he is. Ladies and gentleman, I introduce to you Vernon Davis. The Disease would definitely be "that guy" on the beach. I have a feeling though that his defensive game would not be nearly as good as he thinks it is.

WR #3/Corner #2 - Alex Smith - The 49ers have run trick plays where Battle and Robinson line up in the backfield and Smith splits out wide. Considering his ability to run the spread option at Utah, Smith brings serious athleticism to the table. I'm curious about his coverage skills, but I could see him taking a deep pass from Nedney to the house.

And there you have it, two teams ready to battle on Baker Beach in the Outer Richmond of San Francisco. So who wins? Well, the gold team's success rides on the arm of Joe Nedney. I think they've got more talent on offense, although I would love to see Nate Clements guarding Alex Smith straight up. I think the Red Team takes it, but if Nedney comes to play, who knows.

So who do you have out there and why? There were several players I would have loved to include but there is only so much space. Who deserves a spot on the Battle at the Beach?

Celtics make offer to Corey Maggette

Fooch — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 00:55:16 -0000

Marc Spears is reporting that in addition to making a MLE offer to James Posey, the Celtics have made an offer to Corey Maggette. Considering they need an eventual replacement for Ray Allen, this would certainly be an intriguing pickup. Maggette averaged 22.1 points and 5.6 rebounds per game.

He's always been considered immensely talented, going back to his days at Duke when he was Dick Vitale's very own Mr. Maggette-oooh. The question is whether you'd want him over Posey. It sounds like if they can sign either one it will only be one, not both. Posey has certainly become a fan favorite after his postseason performance, but Maggette seems like a special talent, which could help carry this team as the veterans get older. He wouldn't be the bedrock of the team, but he'd be quite a talent to have.

I've added a poll. I'm a Maggette guy, but I'm sure Posey has plenty of supporters.

49ers All-Time Guard #1

Fooch — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 20:19:55 -0000

In a slightly less than shocking outcome, Jesse Sapolu has absolutely run away with the center vote. I had thought about just naming him the center, but there were still some other talented options at least worth considering. Now that we've got the center, we'll work our way through the line, starting with the guards. After this first vote is wrapped up, I'll reopen the polls with the remaining nominees.

Guy McIntyre (1984-1993): McIntyre joined Sapolu in the 80s and early 90s to form a whole mountain of protection. McIntyre spent a little time at right guard, but made his bones as a left guard. He won three Super Bowls, while earning five trips to the Pro Bowl. Since retiring, McIntyre has helped out in training camps and currently serves as the Player Development Director for the 49ers.

Randy Cross (1976-1988): Cross spent a good chunk of his career at center, but his best years were at right guard. Cross won three Super Bowls and earned three Pro Bowl appearances and six All-Pro selections. Since retiring, Cross has worked as an analyst for NFL and college games.

John Ayers (1977-1986): Ayers continues the theme of outstanding offensive lineman in the 80s. The offensive line was just as important to the West Coast offense as Joe Montana. Ayers never made it to the Pro Bowl but that could be due in part to being overshadowed by the likes of Cross and McIntyre. Sapolu, Cross and Ayers made for an impressive G-C-G.

Bruno Banducci (1946-1954): After being drafted by the Eagles, Banducci made his way to San Francisco in 1946, where he'd eventually earn a trip to the Pro Bowl and two All-Pro selections. Aside from his outstanding guard play, I also have to include him because he actually had a punt return AND a kick return in 1947. Not sure why that's important, but it's impressive nonetheless.

Woody Peoples (1968-1977): Offensive linemen play a physically grueling position and Peoples was a consistent force at right guard. Peoples played 76 consecutive games without being injured at one point and earned two trips to the Pro Bowl, excelling as a pulling guard.

Updating Der Kommissar's Rookie Salary Cap Rant

Fooch — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 04:11:32 -0000

A few days ago marcello posted a link to Roger Goodell's rant against the rise in rookie salaries. I knew I wanted to discuss this in more depth, but I wanted to wait and get my ducks in a row. Today is a perfect time for this post thanks to several video links at ESPN.com and NFL.com on the issue. Throw in Captain Chaos's post and there is a whole lot to consider.

Now that the owners have opted out of the current labor deal, the rookie salary issue is sure to become a sticking point in negotiations going forward. When it comes to labor negotiations, each side values any and all bargaining chips they can bring to the table. Conceivably, the NFLPA could concede a rookie salary cap as long as the NFL did ______. However, this particular issue is not so simple. Players eligible for the draft are covered by the NFL collective bargaining agreement, even though they're not members of the NFL Players Association. Gene Upshaw and the veterans that run the NFLPA are supposed to be looking out for the best interests of their entire constituency, but I wonder how true that is.

People's Exhibit A: Patrick Willis and Joe Staley are entering their second year in the league, and as first round picks they have certainly benefited from the rise in rookie salaries. I'm excited for the future of both young men and would not normally blaspheme against either, particularly the true awesomeness that is Patrick Willis. Then I see the video linked here and I take issue with what they have to say. In the video, both guys agree that some kind of cap is necessary on rookie salaries. At the end they're asked about their own salaries but the video cuts off before we get a straight answer.

Say the NFL and NFLPA come to some sort of agreement on how to handle this. If the players agree to a rookie salary cap, that could conceivably mean more money for the veterans when they're free agents. That is a bit of an assumption on my part, but something worth considering. One way to not screw over the rookies (not that a 3 year, $8 million deal would be getting screwed), would be that the money saved by the owners on rookie salaries would go towards the players pension plan. That way the rookies could eventually benefit if they're in the league long enough. I'm just spitballing ideas, but it's something that both sides will have to think long and hard about.

ESPN has some interesting info about the issue. Gene Wojciechowski has an anti-Goodell take and after the jump is some ESPN video, including analysis by John Clayton. He points to the trade off necessary for Upshaw to give up the rookie money and whether the NFL is willing to give up a chunk of revenue for that cap.

My own take? While I believe in the free market economy, I don't think the situation is right for it in the NFL. On the one hand, the owners are the ones giving up gobs of money to these players and they should be more disciplined. The problem is that on the other hand, the players are willing to hold out until they get the money they want. It becomes a battle of wills. If there was a slotted rookie cap in place, there would be no holdouts and no acrimonious negotiations. And for those wondering about the rookie salary pool, it comes down to working the system as they do with veterans. The Dolphins rookie pool was $6.5 million. Jake Long signed a 5 year, $57.75 million deal, but his 2008 cap figure is only $3 million.

I'll close with one reason for the players being allowed to demand whatever they want. It comes from Wojciechowski's lambasting of the commissioner:

His statement was greeted by a long round of applause from the estimated crowd of 2,000 inside the amphitheater.

None of those applauding were drafted out of college, had their job rights owned by a team/employer not necessarily of their choice, could be traded to another employer without their consent, could be severely injured on the job, and could be cut at almost anytime.

Niners Nation Fantasy Football

Fooch — Sat, 28 Jun 2008 05:11:26 -0000

EDITOR'S NOTE 6/30/08: I posted this over the weekend. Please indicate if you're interested. We would be using fleaflicker.com more than likely.

It may only be June, but that certainly doesn't mean we can't start talking about fantasy football. Last season the NFL bloggers had a blogger league over at cbs.sportsline.com. This year? We're going to have a Niners Nation league (or multiple leagues if there is enough interest). More importantly, there will be an actual prize to the winner (and one with cash value, not just a front page post). I don't have the details yet, but it will be something to be determined in the not too distant future.

For now I just want to get an idea of who would be interested. The plan is for a 12 team league and if there is sufficient interest, more than one league. There will be more details to come, as we'll be affiliating with a specific service.

For now, either drop a note in the comments or email me (link at the bottom of the page).

It's Preview Magazine Time: Pro Football Weekly

Fooch — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 03:42:02 -0000

Aside from OTAs and a short minicamp, May, June and much of July are pretty quiet on the football front. I'm guessing that's why the various publications put out their annual NFL Preview issues. A lot will change in training camp, but for now, football fans demand information. My first memories of this revolved around Street & Smith's. Others have come along, including Athlon Sports and Lindy's Pro Football Preview, but for me, it all goes back to Street & Smith's.

We'll look at those magazines later, but for now I thought we'd start with CBSSports.com's Pro Football Weekly. PFW gives letter grades to eight offensive and defensive units, a projected record and odds on winning the Super Bowl. I've put all the pertinent information about all 4 NFC West teams in this handy-dandy chart:

	San Francisco	Arizona	Seattle	St. Louis
Quarterbacks	C	B-	A-	B-
Running Backs	B	C+	C+	A-
Receivers	C-	A-	B	B-
Offensive Line	C-	C+	C+	C
Defensive Line	C	C+	B	C+
Linebackers	B-	B	A	C+
Defensive Backs	C+	C+	B+	C+
Special Teams	B+	B-	C-	B-
Predicted 2008 Record	3-13	10-6	12-4	6-10
Super Bowl Odds	70-1	40-1	12-1	50-1

As you can see, PFW seems rather bullish on the Cardinals and incredibly down on the 49ers. I have no problem with the long Super Bowl odds, but does anybody honestly see this team going 3-13? I suppose anything's possible and I'm probably more optimistic than an objective football analyst. However, I honestly see both the offensive and defensive units improving in 2008. I'm not predicting 13-3, but I think a 7-9 or 8-8 prediction is completely reasonable and safe guess. Furthermore, even though the grades aren't all that good, there is no one unit that is so awful as to warrant 3-13.

Right off the bat, let's look at the running back position. Steven Jackson is arguably the better running back in the NFC West. Even conceding that point, would you rather have DeShaun Foster as your #2 back or the combination of Travis MInor and youngsters Brian Leonard and Antonio Pittman. Sure there is upside in those last two, but Foster brings more to the table this season.

Looking at the offensive line grades, it's fair based on last year's performance. However, I definitely think the offensive line will perform above a C- if they can stay healthy. The addition of Barry Sims gives them a very capable backup to Jonas Jennings, meaning they won't be sliding guards to tackle and tackles to guard.

As far as the defensive backs are concerned, I think this a clear sign of not doing enough research. It seems like they saw the 49ers final numbers and assumed the DBs were just as bad as everybody else. They did acknowledge that Clements played well under his "$80 million contract" (that we all know is NOT $80M). While Walt Harris certainly regressed from 2006, the depth behind him has grown. Shawntae Spencer remains a talented back up and the youth movement of Tarell Brown and Reggie Smith brings a lot to the table.

They wrapped up the preview stating that:

At the very least, the Niners should be a lot more interesting with Mike Martz in charge of the offense. But with so many holes to fill on both sides of the ball, a sixth straight losing season seems more than a little likely.

Considering they predicted 3-13, it seems like they think it's more like a lock.

Other Stuff
As with every preview magazine, PFW has several feature articles on everything ranging from the 10 players to keep an eye on throughout the year to the top rated players overall and at each position. I'm disappointed to say that Patrick Willis didn't make the top 10 players to watch each week, or even the honorable mentions. Of course the top 10 were all the usual suspects on offense. The honorable mentions did include Ed Reed and Antonio Cromartie. Personally, I think you're gonna see something special every week when Bamm-Bamm takes the field.

As far as the player ratings, 4.0-5.0 goes Pro Bowl, blue chip guys who "consistently make big plays." 3.0-3.9 goes to impact players who fall short in at least one area. 2.4-2.9 goes to starters who get the job done or a "still-developing player who has the potential to get it done."

Coming in at #50 and the highest rated 49er is Bamm-Bamm himself, Patrick Willis with a 4.0 (for new readers wondering about the Bamm-Bamm, Chad Johnson gave Willis that nickname just prior to playing against him last season. Suffice to say, it has stuck here at Niners Nation).

Next to many players they included little initials, such as u (upside), uu (huge upside), c (player is at a crossroads) and d (begun to decline or will soon). Willis is notched with a uu meaning huge upside. Only Brian Urlacher ranks higher than Willis, while Lofa Tatupu and DeMeco Ryans are also given 4.0. Since Willis has uu, and those two don't, he gets the tiebreaker. An interesting point is made in his little bio:

Willis had one of the all-time great seasons for a rookie linebacker, leading the NFL in tackles by a wide margin...Such a high tackle total is usually an indicator of a weak defense, but make no mistake: Willis had an outstanding first season. A fast, tough inside linebacker who makes tackles sideline-to-sideline, Willis could be an All-Pro for the next 10 years if he stays healthy and hungry.

Aside from Willis, the 49ers get high marks for Frank Gore (3.75, although I think there should be a u next to Gore considering the impact Martz could have on the offense). Vernon Davis comes in at 3.4 with uu and in the team preview they think he could blow up in the Martz offense (shocker there). Joe Staley checks in at 3.3 with a uu, Justin Smith is a 3.4, Nate Clements is a 3.7 and MIchael Lewis is a 3.4.

And just to cap it off, the man, the myth, the legend, Andy Lee comes in at 3.8 with a u. You have to love a punter with upside!

49ers All-Time Center: Jesse Sapolu

Fooch — Sun, 29 Jun 2008 17:18:59 -0000

We're calling the #2 defensive end position relatively early as Cedrick Hardman was running away with 71% of the vote. Now that we've got a defensive line, I thought I would move over to the offensive line. We'll start with the anchor in the middle, the center. We all have ideas of who we consider the best center in 49ers history. The interesting thing with the offensive line is the lack of statistics for measuring "greatness." While there are statistics like pancakes, for the most part the only stats we might normally look at the production of the rushing game and how little (or often) the quarterback was sacked. Other than that, we just thing a guy is great because of what we saw.

One quick note: I was originally going to include Randy Cross here, but he actually spent more time as a guard. On those first couple of Super Bowl teams he was the starting right guard and his 3 Pro Bowl appearances came as a guard.

Jesse Sapolu (1983-1997): For those of us who came of age in the 80s and 90s, Jesse Sapolu was a rock on the 49ers offensive line. Sapolu spent 13 seasons with the 49ers and is one of six 49ers to win four Super Bowl rings. He earned two trips to the Pro Bowl late in his career in 1993 and 1994. Personally, I can't think of any 49ers who were quietly as popular as Sapolu. During the 49ers 80s/90s dynasty, the offensive line play was a key factor in the continued success. Having an anchor like Jesse Sapolu was essential for a quality offensive line.

Forrest Blue (1968-1974): A first round pick of the 49ers in 1968, Blue was named to 4 consecutive Pro Bowls from 1971-1974, as well as first team All-Pro in 1971 and 1972. Blue was just the second offensive lineman to be drafted by the 49ers in the first round.

Bruce Bosley (1956-1968): Bosley was originally drafted as a defensive end in the second round out of West Virginia. After being moved to left guard, he settled in at center in 1962, where he produced 3 Pro Bowl appearances and 1 All-Pro selection. Bosley was referred to as one of the most underrated centers of the '60s and was well respected around the league.

Jeremy Newberry (1999-2005): I've included Newberry based on a combination of his production and potential. Newberry was a 2-time Pro Bowler before micro-fracture surgery more or less ended his career with the 49ers. Newberry was always one of my favorite 49ers and if he had remained healthy, I think he would have legitimately challenged Sapolu and Blue as the best center in 49ers history.