SB Nation User Blog: ForThree

A Kings Fan's Guide to the Salary Cap 2009 edition

ForThree — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 20:31:26 -0000

This guide exists because I wanted to figure out what our free agent possibilities were for the next few years under various scenarios and decided to subject the rest of you to my inane ramblings. It also helps that I am pissed off I have to work today and Friday which has motivated me to be more productive in terms of FanPosts than actual work.

First, some basic assumptions:

1) Next year's salary cap, as well as the year after, will be equal to this year's cap: $57,700,000. Yes, I know its rumored it might go down next year, I'm not buying it unless Stern is as good at hiring CPA's to cook the league books as he is at hiring corrupt [redacted] fans to be officials.

2) The Kings will not, under any circumstances, pay the luxury tax in our lifetimes.

3) The league will not have a lockout or other labor strife and the future salary system will be something resembling the current system. Yes, this is hopelessly optimistic, because I'm sure as soon as we look like we might be good there will be a season ending lockout, but if we don't have this assumption we can't speculate, and what fun is that? We all know the reason Al Gore invented the Internets was so random idiots like myself that know nothing about what they are talking about can speculate on useless topics like professional basketball salaries.

Second, the credit:

This probably should have gone first, but hey, I'm a heartless jerk. All of the information that is correct in this FanPost is from ShamSports.

Third, the disclaimer:

This post will exist only long enough for pookey to find it and write a good version. The over-under on errors pookey will find in this post is twelve. I'm taking the over.

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So where are we heading into next year if we do nothing?

2010/2011

If we make the qualifying offers to Sergio ($2.338mil) and Brockman ($932k) we'll be at $40.6mil in salary with 11 guys under contract. Throw in a #1 pick at $3mil (less than Tyreke) and we are about $14.1mil under the cap to sign 0-3 guys.

That means we're not in any danger of signing any of the max guys this summer (not that people thought we would be). $14million should be a hell of a lot of money though for say a $9mil/year free agent and a $3mil or so short contract reasonable bench guy and our 2nd round pick.

2011/2012

Honestly, this season is damn similar to 2010/2011 assuming we keep everyone that's on the team now. Of course, presumably we'll have another #1 pick, call that guys salary another $3 mil, but if we let Sergio walk that almost balances it out.

So what does it mean?

If we do nothing, you can expect either this summer or next to be able to add one mid-tier $8-10mil kind of guy either via signing or a trade. But...you only get one, and whoever that guy is probably will be the last one for a while. After 2011/2012, our young guys will begin needing to get paid, so its safe to assume we won't have a lot of cap space then.

What other options do we have?

Ahh, the Noc and Beno question. These guys make between $6 and $7mil each in the next two years. If we can get rid of one of them, our cap space goes from about $14mil to over $20mil. Suddenly we have serious money to throw around. I'm in the camp that says we won't get a top tier guy to come here easily, but I also believe money talks. If one of these guys are movable with out taking on salary, you have to like being in a position to spend the money on an expensive free agent or a trade. Now, of course, we have no idea what the Maloofs appetite would be to spend $$$ but a $14mil guy and a $4mil guy is different than $9mil and $3mil.

You guys know I've been willing to get rid of Nocioni since he got here, I'm still in that camp, and think its at least possible, because the guy has been playing well most of the time.

As for Beno, yes he's played great, but if he's ever able to be moved, he has to go. His contract after this year is: $6.47mil/$6.92mil/$7.37mil...its horrendous, he has to go if we can figure it out.

Sam Amick Lost his Father last night

ForThree — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 17:52:10 -0000

Sam Amick Lost his Father last night

from David Thorpe's chat.

Our condolences to you and your family Sam.

Quick Look at the Kings offense

ForThree — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 17:08:40 -0000

I was interested in trying to determine what we are doing on offense, so I rewatched the 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarters of last night's Utah game and made some notes. I was real interested in determining how often we are getting the ball to a post player, and whether it was working or not.

A quick comment about my methods, I only counted non-transition possessions, and I counted any time we were shooting free throws as two points regardless of whether or not the free throws actually went in.

Quarter	Possessions	Post Ups	Avg Pts	No Post Up	Avg Pts
2nd	22	9	1.78	13	1.15
3rd	22	7	1.14	15	1.47
4th	18	5	1.4	14	0.43

As you can see, over the course of the game we steadily went away from the post up game. In the second quarter it was extremely effective, in the 3rd quarter though, we played most of the quarter without JT, Spencer or Tyreke on the floor and the offense was much different. It worked reasonably well, but I don't know that we can count on duplicating the shooting we got in the 3rd quarter very often without a post player to run the offense through.

The 4th quarter strategy of draining the shot clock to 8 before even attempting to start the offense was a mess. Yes, we won the game, but I can't believe we had a better chance to win playing the prevent offense than running our usual sets. The only bright spot in the 4th quarter was, when we did get the ball down low, we were pretty effective against a pretty decent defensive team, at home, in lockdown mode out of desperation.

One other question I had, was who is getting the post up opportunities. The results didn't surprise me a ton having watched the games, but if you'd have told me they would look like this before the season started I would have been Shocked (pun intended):

Player	Post Ups	Avg Pts
JT	9	2.22
Tyreke	8	1.38
Spencer	3	0
May	1	0

Last night, every time we got the ball to JT in the post, he made a good decision that either resulted in points or foul shots. I think its interesting to note who is getting the chance to post up (JT & Tyreke) in addition to the amazing effieciency JT displayed last night.

Now for all the usual caveats, these numbers are amateurish for a host of reasons, and the sample size is way too small to draw any conclusions from, but given the assist numbers JT has put up to start this season, I think we've sold JT short a little bit (or at least I have) as a playmaker. We are starting to see the emergence of a post player you can throw the ball in to, and count on them to make a good decision that leads to a good chance for points. We have not given Jason his due to date for amazing development from last year to what we've seen this year.

Grading the Road Trip

ForThree — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 14:20:23 -0000

Well, we waitied all summer for this, here at the NBA Masochist Forum. No wins, three losses, but some items worth noting and getting excited about. Note that I'm giving out these grades based on my (hopefully) reasonable expectations, not comparing players to each other.

Tyreke Evans: B

A couple of bad decisions here and there, and a tough opener, but certainly well within what you'd expect from a rookie point guard asked to do everything. His defense on CP3 was special, he wants to involve his teammates, and we have every reason to be excited about him going forward.

Kevin Martin: C+

Some will probably feel I'm being generous here, but Kevin is doing some things I really like. His New Orleans game was abysmal, and certainly 34% shooting isn't getting it done. What I did like, is better defense, more competitiveness and more steals than turnovers. The last stat I think says a lot to help mitigate Kevin's bad shooting. I guess, if the thing I'm worried about with Kevin is shooting...I'm pretty hopeful.

Desmond Mason: B

In our one really good stretch during the NO game, he was absolutely shutting down David West. He's keeping the starting spot warm for Casspi and/or Donté to step up and claim, as long as he does it professionally, and plays hard, its tough to complain. I like him on the team, even if I'm hoping he plays 5 minutes a night by the end of the year.

Jason Thompson: A

Leading the team in rebounding isn't a surprise; leading the team in assists is Shocking. Add in, only 11 fouls, over 1 blocked shot a game and only 1 turnover in three games, and you have to be excited about Mr. Thompson. Let's throw in some more: he played respectable post defense against legit threats without fouling, he made great decisions with the ball (12 assists/ 1 turnover), showed an actual post up game (definite work in progress) and as always, the effort and hustle were there. He had a tough time finishing shots, and still doesn't seem to have a left hand, but the road trip put some of JT's development on display.

Sean May: D

Displayed a nice shot but played way too soft most of the time. Had some stretches of good defense, but if you're going to be the short big guy that can't jump, you need to box-out more and play harder. I hope for better.

Spencer Hawes: D+

The plus is because the 3rd game seemed to be going in the right direction. The first two were horrendous, with Spencer seemingly completely lost on offense. More energy, more competitiveness, Spencer showed some growth on defense, but needs to relax and get some confidence on offense. Hopefully the SA game was the start of something.

Andres Nocioni: C

Phenomenal in the NO game, way too much Noc Jordan in the SA game when it was getting away and Nocioni was trying to "take over". Play hard Noc, help our guys get better, Petrie will get you out of here as soon as he's able.

Omri Casspi: A

Nice three games Omri. Welcome to the NBA, I think we're going to be excited you're on the team for a while.

Beno Udrih: D

At some points in the NO game, I thought Beno and Nocioni were really getting it, but most of the time, Beno was doing his patented dribble a hole through the floor while he points at guys that aren't doing what he wants and they stare back at him with the "Who is this asshole and why does he make more money than me?" stare. Also, we saw plenty of this last year, but his defense was an embarrassment. This team has plenty of room on it for a scoring point guard coming off the bench, hopefully Beno will get it soon.

Jon Brockman: A

37 minutes, 14 rebounds and hustle. Brockman has tons to work on, but there's nothing to complain about at this point.

Sergio Rodriguez: Inc.

Didn't see enough to have an opinion.

Donté Green: Inc, but..

Obviously Donté didn't play enough to get a grade, but I will say, in the few minutes he played, he seemed to be making a concerted effort to give the coaching staff what they were looking for. Keep it up, PW will give him a chance, if he keeps working at developing an NBA game.

Coaching Staff: B+

I don't have a lot to complain about. Coaches, please put some time in with our guys defending the pick and roll. Our bigs don't step up hard enough to slow down the guard, or get back quickly enough to defend the big guy. We've got to do better defending the pick and roll at the top of the key. Rotations, minutes, timeouts, etc, I thought the coaches did a good job.

One fan's Season Preview

ForThree — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 20:46:26 -0000

The emotional transition from a fan's perspective is one of the best things about sports, especially as a long-term fan. From the team coming to Sacramento (yes I'm that old), to the reality of bad basketball, but our bad basketball. The excitement of getting the number one pick, the reality of Pervis Ellison; years of misery balanced by the pleasure of watching a true pro, the Rock.

The rejection of a young prima donna who doesn't want to play for your team. The disbelief of the turnaround. Witnessing a revolution, seeing a young point guard bring art back to basketball. Revelling in the beauty; watching the development of a contender. The excitement of rooting for a team that is truly your contender for years, the disappointments, rooting for the ultimate anti-hero Chris Webber.

The decline, pretending there isn't a decline, when its plain to see. The apathy knowing your team is "ok" but really has no chance; hitting bottom. So why am I as excited now as I have been in years to watch our team?

We're bouncing along the bottom, its actually possible we'll be worse than last year, though I don't think its likely. I am excited though, because we've turned the page completely on the glory days, and I really think we have some pieces worth rooting for.

Here's what I'll be watching in 2009-10:

Kevin Martin - He's entering his prime, he's going to be asked to do so much for this team. Kevin you've said you want to make shots that matter, here's how you get there:

You have to play, injuries happen, maybe its all bad luck, but...you must play this season, we need you for 75+ games
We need a more complete Kevin Martin. When you're not the guy, you can get your numbers. That's not what this team needs. I don't care how many games you score 40+. I want to see scores that end opposing runs, I want buckets in the 4th quarter. I want key steals and rebounds, we need all-around development and winning contributions, not just numbers.
I want to see a PER of 21+. Two years ago, Martin delivered 21 PER, I want to see that.
Defensive rating of 108 or less. All-Pro defense isn't required, but its got to get better.

Spencer Hawes - 21 years old, all you need to do is be a starter and hold your own against the best pros in the world. This is what I want to see from Spencer:

Less entitlement and more competitiveness. No one owes you anything, the refs aren't going to ever like you, you need to compete and earn it.
Post defense - avoiding foul trouble, holding position, boxing out. With JT and Tyreke, we've added good rebounders; free them to go get the ball by boxing out the opponents best rebounders.
Good decisions with the ball
50%+ true shooting percentage
Consistency - A PER of 15+ would be phenomenal, but what I really want to see is consistant, professional play, very few terrible games.

Jason Thompson - In some ways, I think JT is less interesting than some of our guys, which isn't a bad thing, its because he's pretty consistent:

Avoiding foul trouble - Be less eager when playing defense, you don't have to make a play every time you are defending the ball, good position defense is ok.
Put backs and scoring with the left hand
Post defense - not being pushed under the basket by power forwards
Setting good screens, and making good decisions as the screener on screen-roll. Evans/JT should be scary eventually running the pick and roll, I want to see development

Tyreke Evans - Wow, just keep doing what you've been doing. Personally I can't express how impressed I've been, the game comes easily to Tyreke and he seems like a great teammate.

Don't believe the hype - The NBA hype machine is coming, you'll get yours, keep being who you have been so far
Work on your jumpshot - this is the easy one, all basketball players like working on shooting
Distribute the ball - I have no complaints so far
I am eager to see the chemistry develop in our backcourt

Omri Casspi - Its only preseason!

Take what's given to you on offense, make the easy play and be aggressive on defense
I want to see what Omri really does at an NBA level, how good can he be?
It would be nice by the end of the year if Omri at least shows he's going to have an NBA career, we need to manage our expectations

Donte Greene - jjham summed up my opinion a couple of days ago. Dé3 needs to decide if he's going to be an NBA player or a bust, he literally has no NBA skills right now, hopefully I won't be able to say that by the end of the year.

Paul Westphal - I had my doubts over the summer, but our new Coach has said all the right things, and pushed the right buttons so far, here are my goals for the season:

I want to see developing chemistry amongst our guys
We're not going to be a good defensive team, but there's no reason we should be a defensive embarrassment either
Keep Beno and Nocioni under control - keep them happy enough that they aren't being complete pains in the ass and are being professional and contributing to the team
I want to see some joy in the team, and professional effort
I want to see professional learning. We're going to be bad, but I want to see player development over the course of the year.

So that's what I'm excited about this year, hopefully everyone's ready for a fun, oftentimes painful year.

The One Thing We Know

ForThree — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 14:43:33 -0000

A lot has been said about the draft, we've been through the roller coaster, everyone's coming to terms with where we are going as a team. There have been dozens of opinions posted; we should have taken Rubio, Evans will be John Salmons, Evans will be the Big O. Cutting through all the opinions, there's only one thing we actually know:

Given the chance, Petrie selected Evans over Rubio.

So why'd he do it? Is there a plausible case GP selected Evans over Rubio for non-basketball reasons? Clearly, Rubio's got some issues, the buyout, whether he'd come over or not. We don't know, but all of the available speculation says Rubio wanted to come here, and the buyout was manageable in the right situation. I think its tough to make a case Rubio wasn't selected because of these reasons.

That leaves us with this, GP actually thinks Evans will be a better NBA player than Rubio. Think about it, do you guys think GP was excited to pass on Rubio if he's going to be the next great point guard? Now, of course Petrie could be wrong, but we have to give some credit to his opinion right? There are some great contributors to this site, and other sites do great work too, but Petrie's the pro, we need to at least give some credit to his opinion. He thinks Evans is going to be good, if he is, what's it mean for our team?

A lot has been said on this site (all bad) about our defense, and rightfully so. Assuming the major pieces on the team already are the foundation (Martin, Hawes, JT), drafting Evans is a huge step towards having a competant defensive team eventually. I think Hawes and JT will eventually be a competant defensive duo. Competant is a long ways from imposing. If our defense is going to be decent, the perimeter guys have to do a good job denying easy penetration to the basket. Evans is the first perimeter defender for this team we don't need to make apologies for, he's a first rate, athletic defender. There is legitmate hope when matching up 3 years from now, we're going to be able to put him on a solid scorer on another team and have confidence that scorer is going to be slowed down. I think we need two good perimeter defenders if we're ever going to be a decent defensive team. Evans is #1, I hope a Small Forward to be identified is #2 and if Martin is our worst perimeter defender we'll be in good shape, because he's going to be better on a better team also, and not many teams roll 3 heavy scorers out there for their wings and PG anyway.

On offense, of course we've hung our hat on the Princeton since the Adelman days. Evans seems like a bad fit in the Princeton; reportedly he's a ball hog, he's not an accomplished shooter. I don't think its in Petrie's blood to go away from a motion offense entirely; it just doesn't seem possible we're going to be clearing one side of the floor and running endless pick and rolls. Presuming we do run some type of motion offense, I think Evans is going to fit in better than people think. A motion offense isn't just about long jump shots, its about getting the ball to a player with a slight advantage. Evans is going to be very good in those situations.

Is Evans the right pick? Honestly, we don't know. What I will say to defend it is: Petrie thinks he's better than Rubio.

I have three main questions about the guy:

1) Does he want to be a good defender?

2) Does he want to be a good teammate (not evil-Salmons)?

3) Does he believe the hype or is he going to work to be better?

If the answer to those three questions are good ones, there's a reasonable chance Evans was the right pick for this team.

Summer Scorecard

ForThree — Thu, 28 May 2009 17:49:57 -0000

Now that we know where our #1 pick is (boo/hiss) I thought it would be interesting to lay out my hopes and expectations for the summer and see how many (if any) our beloved GM achieves. I also think its much more fun to do this now, and then look back on it, rather than just second guess later.

The Coach

We've seen a lot of names go by, some interviews have been conducted, here's my evaluation of the candidates:

3pts - Messina + veteran assistant, Eddie Jordan + an assistant that we think adds up to better defense
2pts - Thibideau + veteran assistant
1pt - Any of the guys above with questionable assistants or Jeff Van Gundy
-1 - Rambis, not sure why he deserves a chance
-2 - Porter, Westphal, Silas, etc, these guys seem like placeholders that don't add much to me
-3 - any candidate plausibly connected to the Maloofs
-5 - Whisenant
-10 - Avery Johnson, because everyone is allowed one bout of irrationality in their FanPost

I like the concept of bringing a great Euro coach over, if he had the right support in place. Jordan or Thibideau I could also feel pretty good about, again if they put the right people around them. My most important criteria for the coach is they have to have a legit plan that vibes with GP, be effective at developing players and teaching their plan and that they play a modern style of basketball.

Beyond those three candidates it seems like a wasteland of retreads and people I'm not convinced are right for us.

The #4 Pick

It still hurts a little to write that, but hey, it is what it is.

5pts - GP calls the other GMs bluff and Rubio falls to us
2pts - we figure out how to get Rubio for a reasonable price
0pts - GP makes the #4 pick
-2pts - that pick is Thabeet (ok I lied, I get 2 irrational dislikes)

Cap Management

We've made some strides on our salary situation, but still have some major issues. Here are the priorities as I see them:

5pts - We find a way to get rid of Beno and get back a 1-2 year contract
5pts - We dump Nocioni for expiring contracts
4pts - We find a way to land a young core piece for a reasonable long-term deal at a position we need
2pts - We dump Nocioni for a 2 year contract of a contributing player
1pt - We spend no more than $3mil per year on a roll of the dice with a young talented guy
0pts - We move K9
-3pts - We sign a veteran for more than one year for more than $2mil a year

As you can see, I think Beno will be almost impossible to move. There was a rumor we could move Nocioni for expirings, if that possible we have to do it. He's redundant with Cisco and neither are NBA starters. Moving Nocioni out the door paves the way for landing that scoring, defending wing player to complement Kevin Martin that many on these boards say is easy to find. If we find a way to add a core piece who's young, say Trevor Ariza or Marvin Williams, I'll be very happy.

Team Building

In my opinion, we have 4 players that matter: Martin, Hawes, JT & Garcia. Maybe Donte plays his way onto the list; I'm not advocating getting rid of him. The #4 pick obviously should be another piece.

+5 - With our other two picks, Petrie lands two guys we plausibly think would be in the top 8 of a good team eventually
+3 - We trade up and draft a guy that fits well
+1 - One of our two lower picks fits
-2 - Petrie rolls the dice on a shooting guard and skilled center that does what Spencer does but worse

We need more good basketball players, which seems obvious, but I don't think it is. We're not the team that needs a super marksman 3 point specialist. We don't need a big guy that is a specialist. We need to roll the dice on guys who's game can grow. I love that Petrie is holding the dice; I just want him focusing on the right kind of guy.

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So that would be my plan for the offseason. I'm hoping Petrie finds a way to get about 10 points in this competely arbitrary and just for fun system. Note that points for creativity and extra credit are available! I look forward to a potential surprise or two this summer. One way or another it should be fun.

Fire away.

Excerpts from Thorpe's Chat

ForThree — Wed, 27 May 2009 17:10:41 -0000

Excerpts from Thorpe's Chat

The link has it all, but I don't know if it will be available.

Some excerpts:

MC Welk (SLC): Your top 5 PGs in the draft?

David Thorpe: In terms of upside? Hmmm, maybe
1. Rubio
2. Holiday
3. Jennings
4. Maynor
5. Lawson

Igor (Chicago): No Flynn or Curry in your top 5?

David Thorpe: Ouch!! Yes, Curry is in at #3, maybe I'd be convinced he's #2. I love him.

Sean (Co Springs): What makes Rubio so good?

David Thorpe: Mind and vision like Larry Bird's.

vanessa (Sacramento): do you really think the kings are good as gone in sacramento?

David Thorpe: If they hire Westphal, yes.

Modeling Kevin Martin

ForThree — Fri, 15 May 2009 17:36:35 -0000

A few months ago, intrigued by Mr. Thompson's growth, I looked at his compiled statistics in his rookie year up to then and tried to figure what NBA player those statistics resembled. I thought the same kind of exercise with resident star Kevin Martin might be interesting.

Statistics used (courtesy of BasketballReference ):

PER - Player Efficiency Rating, 15 is league average
TS% - True Shooting Percentage
ORtg - Offensive Rating, higher is better
DRtg - Defensive Rating, lower is better

I discarded Kevin's rookie year because he played so little. The other three years of his career look like this:

Kevin Martin

Age	PER	TS%	ORtg	DRtg
23	20.1	.614	120	109
24	21	.618	121	112
25	19.2	.601	115	117

Comp 1

Age	PER	TS%	ORtg	DRtg
23	15.7	.602	118	112
24	20.8	.645	124	113
25	21.2	.650	130	114

This player was a 5-time All-Star, certainly in the discussion for the greatest pure shooter ever. When he was 25 years old, he had his greatest statistical season and his 65% TS% led the NBA. It is interesting to note how bad his defensive statistics were; in these years this player's team was pretty bad. Kevin's shooting numbers aren't quite as good as this guy, but he is reasonably close. I think we all believe Kevin hasn't had his best season yet. Its interesting to note this player's defensive rating got significantly better as he got older and his team got better. You'd recognize Comp 1 as Reggie Miller.

Comp 2

Age	PER	TS%	ORtg	DRtg
24	17.4	.568	106	102
25	17.6	.540	108	104
26	18	.536	106	107

This player is remembered as one of the most consistent and dangerous scorers of his generation as well as being a very bad defender. A trade when he was 26 years old moved him to a fast paced team, and really set his career on fire; his PER peaked at 24.1 when he was 29 years old. This player was not a 3 point threat, only making 18 total despite scoring over 25,000 points in his NBA career. Of interest in his profile, when this player moved to a terrible defensive team, his defensive stats also became terrible, in the range of Kevin's current stats. Bill Simmons recently used this guy as an example of one of the worst defenders of all time. However, this guy was an 8-time All-Star, borderline Hall-of-Famer, and everyone hopefully recognizes the name of Comp 2, Alex English.

I'm not really saying I think Kevin will be quite as good as either Reggie Miller or Alex English; though he is close. So far he has been very, very close to Reggie in terms of scoring, but clearly he's not quite there.

For Alex English, the thing about his career is its consistency and how he got slightly better almost every year, to his peak at age 29. The truly amazing part is at age 35, he played 82 games, almost 3000 minutes and had a PER of 19.0.

I do think this analysis should make us feel a little better about Kevin's defensive issues. Both of these players were better individual defenders when they had a better supporting cast, the logic seems straightforward. That's not making any excuses for Martin; clearly defense needs to become a focus for improvement, but you can see how it would work.

The one major caveat to this analysis is, both Miller and English were extraordinarily durable, which Kevin has not been.

So this is my open appeal to Geoff Petrie. Kevin Martin is pretty damn special, you have two years to surround him with some actual NBA players. Spencer was a hell of a start, JT last year looks legit, we have a top 4 pick and some other pieces to be hopeful about. We need to have a legit NBA team around him in the next two years as he enters his prime.

Tim Keown's take on the Kings situation

ForThree — Mon, 13 Apr 2009 17:05:29 -0000

Tim Keown's take on the Kings situation

An interesting read over lunch from one of my favorite columnists.