There is a lot of talk about Jon Jones cleaning out the division in two more fights. Seems a little like jumping the gun, but if we are going to jump it, let’s go for distance. To do so, we will make the following assumptions: a) Jon Jones wins his next two fights; b) Neither Jones nor his opponents suffer injuries that derail any fight plans; c) Anderson Silva has meant what he’s said and will not move up to challenge for the title. I know that last one will bug some people, but it’s what Silva has said. Of course if he changes his mind, he’d leapfrog any other fighter.

Jon Jones will be fighting Rashad Evans in April, unless Rashad has an as yet unreported injury from his domination of Phil Davis. If that’s the case, Jones will face Henderson. Either way, whoever doesn’t face Jones in April will probably face him in August or September. Now the question turns to who will Jon Jones challenge next. Is there another challenger or is the division cleaned out and does Jones start rematching fighters he has dominated?

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As we have seen in the last few days, what you say in the UFC can have consequences. Miguel Torres has paid a steep price for what he has claimed to be just a joke. And while Rashad Evans hasn't faced as severe a punishment, his public persona has taken a hit based on his attempted Penn State joke. And while it's very easy to say they should have known better than to say these things, is it entirely their fault?

One of the worst things a fighter can be called today is boring. No one ever disputes that Jon Fitch is the clear consensus #2 welterweight, yet anytime his name is brought up, a majority of people will say they don't want to see him fight. And he is further handicapped by his personality. Jon Fitch may be a great human being, but he rarely says anything that moves the needle and brings little passion to his interviews. People aren't interested in Jon Fitch, and in a sport where each fighter is his own team, his own brand, you need get fans to be passionate about you. Otherwise, your fights don't sell, you get buried on undercards, and you don't fight for championships. How do you do get people that invested in you? Personality. And what's the fastest way to get people to like you? Be funny.

Comedy is hard. When you are working in a comedic realm, you are often dealing with people's prejudices, fears, and hot-buttons. You force them to deal with things they may not want to. Aside from the subject matter, there's a natural timing and rhythm in telling a joke that not everyone has or can learn. For example, when Tom Brady hosted Saturday Night Live, he was awful. Truly awful. But put Peyton Manning in there and he killed. Same show, same writers, both NFL quarterback, both used to being center stage, but one succeeded and one failed. Manning has the natural timing, Brady doesn't. And so it goes with fighters. Take anything Chael Sonnen has said and have Mark Munoz say it. All you would hear is crickets. It would never work.

This isn't the NFL or MLB, where you can use the team as a starting point to get the fans interested and the most talented players then have an easier route to become stars. There are hundreds of fighters trying to capture fan interests to propel their careers. And as much as fans want to say it's all about the skill, what makes people care enough to buy PPV after PPV is having an interest in the fighters. They want to love the nice guy with the tear-jearking story. They want to hate the villain who talks trash. They want to cheer the clowning, smiling goofball that they think it would be great to have a beer with.

Chael Sonnen is the extreme example of a fighter who has used his over-the-top personality to advance his career and public persona. Time and again, you here people complain that his record isn't that good, that his grinding style isn't that interesting and that he's a jerk. Yet when he fights, everyone watches. When he makes an outrageous statement, everyone listens and comments. Guys like Forrest Griffin, Brock Lesnar, BJ Penn, Nick Diaz, Michael Bisping and Josh Koscheck have these outsized personalities as well, some are crafted (Lesnar,) some are natural (Diaz,) and some are a combination of their nature and planning. But regardless of how they got there, they've all used this to their advantage.

And other fighters see this. They want to climb the mountain and see that making bold or funny or controversial statements can get people interested. When the fans are interested in a fighter, because of like or dislike, they watch that guy fight. The more people who watch the fight, the better opportunity there is for the next fight. But here's the problem, not everyone can be that guy. Some people just don't have that piece to their personality. So as long as we as fans are asking these fighters to do more than fight for us, but to entertain us, to make us care about them as people, to make us react to them, guys like Miguel Torres are going to make mistakes.

According to a story over at the Huffington Post, Congress has lifted the ban on the butchering of horses for human consumption. Now we can expect to see many more fighter in the UFC pack on 50 pounds of muscle and move to compete in the heavyweight division. Looking at you Jon Jones!

Here's the some from the article:

Horse Meat Inspection Ban Lifted In The U.S.

TULSA, Okla. -- Horses could soon be butchered in the U.S. for human consumption after Congress quietly lifted a 5-year-old ban on funding horse meat inspections, and activists say slaughterhouses could be up and running in as little as a month.

Slaughter opponents pushed a measure cutting off funding for horse meat inspections through Congress in 2006 after other efforts to pass outright bans on horse slaughter failed in previous years. Congress lifted the ban in a spending bill President Barack Obama signed into law Nov. 18 to keep the government afloat until mid-December.

The entire article can be found here.

A lot of names have been kicked around for the first UFC on Fox.  Anderson Silva, Lyoto Machida, and Chael Sonnen have been three of the most prominent names talked about.  But I don’t know that we’ll see any of these guys on the card.  And for one simple reason, this card is not for hardcore fans, but as a way to introduce MMA and the UFC to a new audience.  Why wouldn’t you want to use these guys to do that?  They are three of the best and most recognizable stars in the sport.  But there are problems with all of them being used for that purpose.

Sonnen is a lightning rod for the hardcore fans.  People either love him for his attitude and antics or despise him for being a cheat, racist, and fraud.  And therein lies the problem, while the Chael haters want to see him get beat, you don’t really want to introduce potential new fans to him right away.  He’s had the legal issues, the PED issue and says a lot of stuff that can be construed as racist or homophobic.  This event is going to get covered by a different type of media, people with a stronger anti-MMA agenda.  There is no need to give those people someone like Chael to exploit towards that end.

Silva and Machida have a different problem, as they both seem to be pretty solid citizens.  Their problem is that they don’t speak English.  Now there have been rumors about how much English Silva can actually speak, but it doesn’t matter what he knows as long as he chooses not to do it.  People have a short attention span.  They don’t care for subtitles and they don’t want to listen to questions asked and answered in two languages.  Again, hardcore fans are used to it, but FOX will be trying to pull in people who haven’t watched MMA and are accustomed to the NFL, NASCAR, and MLB.  Sure MLB has their share of Spanish-speaking players, but let’s be honest, those guys don’t get nearly as much airtime as other players and coaches.  Plus, Silva having to fight Saturday could end up making him unavailable anyway.

The point is to educate these new fans about the sport and the fighters.  They need the more clean-cut guys, guys who can communicate well, guys with less trouble in their pasts.  It’s like when you bring your girlfriend to a family function for the first time; you keep her away from the weird uncle with the plate in his head.  Not that you don’t love the guy, but you don’t want her to have to deal with too much too fast.  Also, you want to make sure that you are going to get two exciting fights.  Fights that you can guarantee will deliver.  So who do you bring?

First, Urijah Faber vs. Brian Bowles needs to be moved from UFC 139 to FOX.   These guys do not do boring fights.  Plus, you have the advantage of Faber having already been marketed to a larger audience through endorsements and is great as a face to introduce the sport to new fans.  He’s solid in interviews and is used to dealing with press.  Bowles should also do well representing the sport.  The second fight, Rich Franklin vs. Dan Henderson.  Their first fight was quality, very close and I can’t see them having a boring fight either.  Again, Franklin has already done a ton of work helping to promote MMA in a variety of areas.  We know the story, former math teacher, looks like a tough Jim Carey, and does great in interviews.  Henderson would be solid as well, plus he brings the former Olympian status to the table.  These four guys would be perfect to handle the spotlight to introduce MMA and the UFC to the new viewers FOX will bring and, as their histories show, they will deliver in the fights.  Are these match ups that the hardcore fans are clamoring for?  No, but that’s not what this first UFC on FOX is about.

I like that the UFC is willing to bring drastic change to The Ultimate Fighter.  The show needs it and the fans want it.  And Fox has the cred for running the most popular reality competition show of all time, American Idol.  Unfortunately, Fox has also produced Temptation Island, The Swan and Who's Your Daddy.  And this I why I am concerned about a live TUF show.  It could be great, but there's some big potential for failure as well.

First, the general format.  After season 13, Dana White said he would never have a season where guys didn't have to fight to get into the house.  Let's hope he sticks to this.  We don't need these fight-in bouts to be live.  Tape them several weeks in advance, give us a kick off show with the highlights and bios of the guys who made it.  But they need to fight to get in.  Bringing in fan voting for fight selection?  I don't know.  We've seen things like votefortheworst.com try to screw with American Idol.  Ever read a fanpost or comment from someone pushing a really bad fight idea.  Yeah, that guy is going to be voting.  Also, we need more skilled fighters and fewer Junie Brownings, even though the Junies of the world tend to get picked for reality shows.  But Fox needs to remember this is a competition reality show, not Jersey Shore.  Talent is more important than willingness to be an ass.

Second, the coaches.  So the coaches are going to have a thirteen week camp to prepare for a fight, while training their fighters?  I can't imagine we are going to see top contenders or champions as coaches.  There is not enough incentive to risk distraction from a fight that will be either the final step towards a championship fight or an actual title fight.  I can't see a way that you won't have coaches that are either middle of the pack, but exciting fighters, or guys that are on the downside of their careers.  At best, think Franklin vs. Ortiz.  At the low end, Sam Stout vs. Spencer Fisher; experienced and exciting, but not relevant.  Not that this is horrible, but will it take something out of the show?  Also, I'm hoping that the UFC will set up two different gyms, since the coaches will have to train as well and this will allow the fighters to train alongside their coaches and let the coaches set their own schedule without having to share gym space.

Third, the house.  We've seen the kind of insanity being locked in a house for six weeks brings out, what do you think will happen after 13 weeks?  They've got to give these guys some access, even if limited, to tv, phones, email and the outside world.  Even the crackheads on Celebrity Rehab get to use their cell phones for an hour a day.  We don't need talented, promising guys to snap in week 10 because they haven't spoken to their wife and kids for two months.

Finally, the fights.  The fact these are going to be live is great.  More drama, more pressure.  But I can't help think injuries are going to derail this.  Let's say you have a guy who fights last in the first round.  If he's lucky, he won't fight for four more weeks.  Then two weeks after that.  Then the finale the following week.  That will be four fights in 8 weeks, including the last two fights in a two week span.  That's a lot of damage, even without serious injury.  Swollen knuckles, thigh bruises, slight strains, minor cuts.  These are things that most fighters have after one fight, but four in eight weeks?  That's a lot to deal with.  Also, the guy who fights first in the first round gets eight weeks to heal and train for his next fight, a huge advantage.  And last, one thing that was good about having the finale months after the season taped, was that you usually ended up with two pretty talented, tough guys who then got 3 months to go a train hard and really improve their skills before the finale.  Unless they are doing more of a comeback season, with more experienced fighters, guys are not going to have the chance to improve as much. 

I hope that all of these concerns are addressed and that the show is phenomenal.  I'm a fan and hope the show can create more fans.  But I will be concerned that the risk/reward of the new format is too high until season 15 wraps up.

With Machida and Ortiz apparently turning down the opportunity to face Evans in  the main event of UFC 133, the UFC is now looking for an opportunist to take the fight.  Why not Chael Sonnen?  This seems to be a good fit and provides plenty of upside.  First, Sonnen is a big MW and Evans is a smaller LHW, so the size difference won't be that bad.  Plus, Sonnen was challenging Machida to a LHW fight for his return already.  Which leads me to the second point.  Sonnen can say, "I'll take the fight Machida was afraid to take!"  That certainly helps sell this thing.  Third, the trash talk between Evans and Sonnen over the next three weeks will be fantastic.  That sound you hear is PPV numbers climbing well past what Evans vs. Davis would have done.  And finally, does anyone care about Sonnen vs. Stann?  We're not going to get the standard Chael trash talk and beating Stann really doesn't push Sonnen.  A win over a top LHW however, virtually guarantees a MW title shot in his next fight.  The UFC can find someone else for Stann and he can continue his growth as a fighter.  C'mon Dana White!  Make this happen!  Tweet Chael and get him on board!

There are some people who will immediately say that The Ultimate Fighter isn’t worth saving.  I think the more MMA on television the better.  However, the show is not as compelling as it needs to be.  What are the problems?   First, fighters don’t want to coach.  They need to be fighting and getting shelved for the show hurts.  Second, the coaches’ fights have been flopping.  Delays or cancellations to injury or illness (Rampag/Rashad, Tito/Chuck, Lesnar/Dos Santos) have plagued the last few seasons.  Third, the quality of the competing fighters has diminished.  Look at season one’s roster.  Okay, now look at season eleven.  Ouch.

I think the best way to save the show would be to radically alter it and instead of having fighters coach, use existing teams and trainers.  Forget the house in Vegas.  Send two groups of eight fighters to separate camps for 2 weeks to train.  Bring them back and have your eight first round fights all in the same day or over two days.  Send the winners back for 3 weeks to train and bring them back for the four quarterfinal bouts.  Send them back for another 3 weeks and do the semis.  Keep the finale the way it is.  Focus more on the fighter’s personal stories and get better coverage of their training.  We don’t need chair-throwing, door-smashing, and roommate-threatening.  We’ve seen it all already.  Show people what it means to be a fighter, not an idiot locked in a house for 6 weeks with a bunch of guys.

Also, by using an existing team, in their own gym, the level of coaching and training is going to be better.  Guys will improve a lot more.  Plus, fight teams have more of a reputation to protect, so they have more interest in seeing these guys improve.  As opposed to Rampage saying, “I ain’t no coach.”  And we would get to see how the best teams actually train.  They still need to get better fighters to start with.  I don’t know if the fighters on the show get any kind of compensation, other than those $5000 finish bonuses, but Zuffa may need to pay some better prospects to get them on the show.

So here’s an example:  Ultimate Fighter 14:  Team Cesar Gracie vs. Team AKA.  Send 8 bantamweights to Stockton and 8 to San Jose.  Every few weeks, bring the guys into Vegas and run the fights.  I would bet the improvement you would see in these guys from their first fight to the semis would be much more dramatic.  And on the finale, Joe Silva could probably come up with a fight or two with veterans of each camp.  I don’t know if we’d be able to get Shields vs. Koscheck as the main event of a free show, but something on the level of a Nate Diaz vs. Mike Swick (as an example, since we don’t know when Swick will fight again) would be a good match up.

There are plenty of good match ups out there.  Along with AKA and Cesar Gracie, Arizona Combat Sports, Black House in San Diego, Xtreme Couture, Grudge, The Pit, and Greg Jackson’s are all quality camps on the West Coast, so the travel wouldn’t be as bad for the fighters.

The last chance The Ultimate Fighter had of being interesting in its current format was Sonnen vs. Bisping and that disappeared along with Sonnen’s career.  If the UFC wants to continue with this show, radical change is needed and soon.

After Fedor's brutal loss last night, many people have speculated that he may be done.  Is he really done?  Let's look at his last three fights.  Fedor is clearly a far superior fighter to Brett Rogers and did eventually finish him, but Fedor struggled a lot with Rogers weight and reach advantage.  Versus Werdum, Fedor got caught.  There's not much here to show that he is done.  He knocked Werdum down and then got submitted on the ground by BJJ black belt.  Then last night against Silva, Fedor had no answer to the size advantage Silva had.  Silva overwhelmed him in the second round.  An eight inch reach and 50 pound weight advantage was too much to overcome.  But despite that, Fedor was not knocked out.  He lost due to damage.  I don't think that Fedor would have been able to win the fight, if his eye had allowed a third round, but I don't think Silva would have knocked him out either.

I don't think age has caught up to Fedor as much as the heavyweight class has outgrown him.  Put Brett Rogers skill set in a 6 foot tall, 230 pound body and that fight wouldn't have lasted 2 minutes.  Perhaps Werdum's longer legs with his 6'4" frame made the difference in catching Fedor.  I think Fedor has better all-around skills than Silva and he still appears to have very good hand speed.  But maybe not enough hand speed to overcome an eight inch reach advantage.  Look back at some of the names that Fedor beat back in the day:  Nogueria, Cro Cop, Coleman, Randleman, Sobral, Linland.  These guys were all similar in size to Fedor and all are smaller than every other fighter in the Strikeforce tournament.  And not only has the heavyweight division grown in size, but many of the larger fighter's have more well-rounded skills.

So Fedor still has a solid skill set, good hand speed, and has never been KO'd.  That third part is huge.  His chin has been tested, but never found wanting.  He's not Liddell, he's not Arlovski.  He's just too small for this division.  No one would ever say that Brock Lesnar has more skill than Randy Couture, but Lesnar size was too much and Randy was smart enough to see it.  Lesnar, Carwin, Dos Santos.  The division was growing and Couture wasn't going to have the answers for size.  It made sense to go back to light heavyweight.  Sure the guys at 205 are probably quicker, but they can't use their size to bully Couture around.  And the same would be true for Fedor.

It's clear that Fedor could make the drop to 205.  He weighs in at 230 and is in no danger of being asked to pose for the cover of Men's Fitness.  He ain't Roy Nelson, but he's probably closer to Roy than he is to John Basedow.  So he could go on the Dolce Diet and get down to 210 in a few weeks, won't lose any power, and could cut the five for weigh-ins with no problem.  Might even be a step quicker.  Then he's got interesting and competitive fights with Henderson, Cavalcante, Mousassi.

So why wouldn't he?  Maybe M-1 won't let him.  Heavyweight is always the marquee class in combat sports.  Perhaps they don't think he could make the money at light heavyweight.  His pride could get in the way.  He doesn't want to be perceived as running away from heavyweight fighters. Maybe he wouldn't want to give up his ice cream and make the weight.

Or he feels he can still compete at heavyweight.  Like I said, he hasn't been knocked out and he has one loss where he caught and the other was stopped because of the eye, rather than being finished.  But should a fighter wait until a brutal knockout to see the writing on the wall.  Fedor's opponents at heavyweight are not going to get smaller.  They are going to continue to grow and eventually one will wreck him.  Randy Couture would not still be fighting at 47 if he had remained at heavyweight.  Fedor has no chance to continue fighting to 40 at heavyweight, but he might be able to at 205.

People keep saying that Yushin Okami has lost his title shot, thanks to Dana White's decision to look for a Silva vs. GSP megafight, but I don't think this needs to be the case.  GSP still has to get past Jake Shields in April and has said he wants around nine months to add muscle to make the move to middleweight.  This gives the UFC the opportunity to have Silva continue cleaning out the division by facing Okami in July at UFC 132.  This works for different reasons.  First, it gives the July 4th weekend card Anderson Silva as a headliner.  Second, he has plenty of time to prepare.  And third, if Jake Shields were to stop GSP, the megafight goes away and Silva will have nothing scheduled.

More importantly, given GSP's stated timetable for the move to middleweight, he would not be ready to face Silva until December or, more likely, on the UFC's New Year's card, shelving Silva for the rest of 2011.  This provides a perfect opportunity for Silva to fight in five months against Okami, then five to six months to prepare for GSP.  The risk is that Silva could lose to Okami or be injured, but it's a gamble I think the UFC should make.  Silva should't be waiting ten or eleven months to fight GSP.  Both fighters are draws and need to remain active.  Worst case, GSP can still move up to middleweight and face Okami for the title if Silva loses or face another middleweight in a no. 1 contender's bout if Silva is hurt.  Either way, GSP will have cleaned out the welterweight division and needs to move up regardless.

As for the welterweight division, once GSP leaves, a new champion will need to be crowned.  GSP would relinquish the belt after his victory in April, which means a new champion would be determined this summer.  That would probably leave the winner of Fitch-Penn to fight the winner of Condit-Lytle on the UFC 131 card in June for the vacant belt.  Maybe the winner of Kampmann-Sanchez could leapfrog Lytle with an impressive win, but I don't think either would get moved ahead of Fitch, Penn or Condit.  Thiago Alves is scheduled for May and could move into the picture, but since he has already lost twice to Fitch and hasn't had a solid history of  making weight, he's probably not much of an option that soon, barring multiple injuries.  Most likely, the winner of Kampmann-Sanchez would see a late fall/winter title shot or take on Alves for one.   Of course if GSP leaves the welterweight division, Dan Hardy and Josh Koscheck will have a shorter path back to contention and might quickly be back in the mix.