Alright Niners Nation here is the opportunity you've all been waiting for. The chance to vote in a poll. I want to know why you think the 49ers will beat the Saints on Saturday. Is it the Defense, Is it the Offense, Is it the Special Teams? Maybe its something else altogether. I want to know and I know you want to tell everybody why you think the Niners are going win so here's your chance.

There has been a lot made in the media about the "struggles" the saints have had on the road. It is well documented that in terms of points scored and allowed the Saints basically turn into the Chargers on the road. It is an interesting discrepancy but one that I dont feel tells the whole story of this matchup we are going to have the privledge of watching on Saturday.

To me the main factor that we should be considering when it comes to home vs road performanc is not how "poorly" the saints do on the road but instead how well the 49ers play at home.

After the jump lets take a look at some numbers.

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We all know that turnover differential is closely associated with winning in the NFL. It is a quick and dirty way for anyone to get a feel for how well a particular team is really doing. The idea is that a teams turnover differential should reflect a teams record and if it doesn't then it normally means that a team is either lucky or unlucky. Generally it does a really good job but what if we could improve it.

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So I have been getting into DVOA a lot recently (Not that I really understand any of it) and have been really impressed.  If you were to make predictions for the weeks upcoming games based strictly on DVOA ranking you would do really well.  DVOA predicted the 49ers over the Eagles and Bucs and Lions, when many of the experts thought otherwise. 

Needless to say I thought it would be interesting to take a look at the Browns game using DVOA.

Continue reading this post »

Due to the overwhelming popularity of my last two FanPosts, Bottom Dwellers and Alternative Lids, I have decided to give into the pressure of the masses and present you with another well thought out and written discussion topic for your reading pleasure.

As we all know there has been a lot of talk about how "lucky" the Giants were last season.  And one of the key words that has been brought up a lot over the course of the off season is regression.  Men and Women, Dogs and Cats, Baseball Experts and Bruce Jenkins, all have thrown their hat into the regression arena expecting a sharp decline in offense this year.

Well I'm not much of a numbers guy myself but I thought it would be interesting to take a look at the Giants offense in both a worst case (OMG Regression) and best case (OMG Luck) scenario.

Before we get to the numbers,  I will say that this is an offense only exercise and for the sake of argument we will assume that the pitching will bear a striking resemblance to last year.  Last year the Giants allowed 583 Runs or 3.6  runs per game.

For the worst case I took the single worst season with at least 300 AB for each player and plugged their OBP and SLG into everybody's favorite lineup analysis tool.  For players without much playing time I took some liberties. For Torres I took his lowest projected OBP and SLG. And for Posey I took 10% off the top of his numbers last year. 

1. Torres - .320 /.419
2. Sanchez - .298 /.371
3. Huff - .288 /.372
4. Posey - .321/.454
5. Sandoval - .323 /.409
6. Burrell - .315 /.367
7. Ross - .322 /.413
8. Tejada - .298 /.384
9. Cain - 119. /.121

The above lineup would produce 3.6 runs per game or 583 total which I found fascinating.  Identical to the amount of runs we allowed per game last year.  If we were to plug the numbers into pythag we could expect the worst case offense to lead us to a record of ... 81-81.

Now I know that we cant necessarily expect our pitching to perform like they did last year but knowing that if they did we could expect our floor to be about .500 is pretty reassuring.

For the best case I just took the best seasons from each player.  I didn't add onto Posey even though I think he could and should get better. And I understand that Tejada is never going to meet his career high again but this is just for fun.

1. Torres - .343 /.479
2. Sanchez - .378 /.473
3. Huff - .385 /.506
4. Posey - .357 /.505
5. Sandoval - .387 /.556
6. Burrell - .376 /.544
7. Ross - .316 /.488
8. Tejada - .360 /.534
9. Bumgarner - .220 /.205

Which projected a total of 5.6 runs per game or 907 total.  Putting our best case record at ... 115 -47

In the end I believe I have mathematically and scientifically proven that the team as is constructed today is going to win somewhere between 81 and 115 games.

Can you say repeat?

I was recently inside one of those hat stores in the mall with my two year old daughter and she picked up a Chicago White Sox Hat.  I told her to put it back and when she asked why I told her it was because that was a white sox hat and we are Giants fans.

But that got me to thinking... If I was forced to wear a hat other than a Giants hat what hat would I choose? How would I order my choices? How would I choose? How would you choose?

In the end I decided that I couldnt go wrong sticking with the history of the game.  So my top 5 teams are all historically significant to MLB.  But history only went so far as I couldnt put a team like the Cubs this high.  So really my end result is a personal mix of historical significance/ the team itself/ style/ association with the teams fanbase.

My Top 5

     1) Cardinals

     2) Tigers

     3) Red Sox

     4) Yankees

     5) White Sox

My Bottom 5

     26) Padres

     27) Rockies

     28) Diamondbacks

     29) Angels

     30) Dodgers

What say you?

So I was listening to Colin Cowherd this morning on espn radio, ( which was my first mistake) and he was talking about how the top teams in each sport are really important but the bottom feeders have no effect on the popularity of the sport.  Im not really interested in discussing his point about whether or not the top teams are more important than parity what I am interested in discussing is the fact that Cowherd while listing off some of the worst teams in each sport, listed the NL West as his example of bottom feeders in MLB.

This is nothing new for Colin he has consistently refered to the NL West as a terrible division and I personally cant understand why.  My best guess is that this is left over from a particularly bad year in 2008 when the Dodgers took the division title with 84 wins.  But I cant honestly believe that this line of thinking is really still effecting the way people view the division, especially someone like Colin Cowherd who is being paid handsomely for his opinions on professional sports.

So my question is why do you think that people still refer to the NL West as the worst division in MLB?  Do people still think of the NL West as the worst division in MLB or is that a view held solely by a lazy radio host?  Where does the NL West rank in the rundown of MLB divisions? Is it the worst?  Which division is the worst?

Here are some fun facts that I am sure everyone is already aware of.

1) Giants have the best winning percentage in the NL.

2) Giants have only lost 10 times least in the NL.

3) Giants have 4 pitchers who are in the top 10 in FIP

4) Giants are in 1st Place

5) Dodgers are in Last Place

6) Giants have the 6th best wOBA in the NL

7) Giants have the best pitching staff in the NL

8) Giants have the second best defense in the league.

We have all heard the rumors about the Niners not passing on Clausen if he is available but I wanted to get a feel for how the fans felt about it.  So included is a poll.  Please Vote.  Your nation needs you.

Also please note in the comments if you are a fan of cake or pie.  Me personally I like pie with apple being my favorite I could eat 75 of them. Yes 75.

Rams - Bradford

Lions - Suh

Bucs - McCoy

Skins - T. Williams

Chiefs - Okung

Hawks - Berry

Browns - Haden

Raiders - Clausen

Bills - Bulaga

Jags - D. Williams

Broncos - McClain

Phins - Pierre-Paul

49ers -  E. Thomas

Hawks - C. Brown

Giants - D. Morgan

Titans - K. Wilson

49ers - Iupati

Steelers - Pouncey

Falcons - B. Graham

Texans - McCourty

Bengals - D. Bryant

Patriots - Odrick

Packers - A. Davis

Eagles - Spiller

Ravens - P. Robinson

Cards - Gresham

Cowboys - S. Weatherspoon

Chargers - R. Matthews

Jets - Kindle

Vikings - K. Jackson

Colts - Saffold

Saints - E. Griffen

This Mock isn't what I think will really happen just thought it would be fun to mix up the mocks a little.  Plus some comments on the top ten picks.

Rams - R. Okung

Rams decide that Colt McCoy is worth waiting until the second round and decide to grab the best tackle in the draft to protect Him.

Lions - E. Berry

Taking a strict BPA strategy the Lions follow their draft board and take the player at the top.

Tampa Bay - N. Suh

I want this mock to have some semblence of realism and I cant see the Bucs passing on Suh here.

Redskins - J. Clausen

Clausen is thrilled to be the 1st QB Selected and Shanahan is Thrilled that his job security isnt in the hands of Jason Campbell

Chiefs - G. McCoy

Going D-Line in back to back drafts may raise some quesions but the chiefs feel McCoy provides to much Value to let him Go.

Seattle - T. Mays

In the SB Nation Mock draft this Selection by Field Gulls really got my attention and made a lot of sense.  Not that it makes any sense.

Cleveland - A. Davis

With their CB need apparently solved via the Sheldon Brown trade the Browns Go O-Line and shock everyone with their selection of Davis.

Oakland - Sam Bradford

The McNabb rumors show a weakness in Al Davis trust in Russell and after failing to complete the trade for McNabb the Raiders try to find their QBOTF and shock everyone by making a very rational selection.

Buffalo - D. Bryant

T.O. is gone and the Bills filled the void of Diva WR with Dez .

Jaguars - D. Morgan

This Pick is all about fixing that pass rush.

Denver - R. McClain

Miami - C.J. Spiller

San Francisco - B. Bulaga

Seattle  - C. Brown

Giants - J. Pierre Paul

Titans - D. McCourty

San Francisco - K. Wilson

Pittsburgh - B. Graham

Atlanta - S. Kindle

Houston - T. Willams

Bengals - D. Williams

Patriots - S. Weatherspoon

Packers - R. Matthews

Eagles - E. Thomas

Ravens - T. Cody

Cardinals - J. Gresham

Cowboys - M. Pouncey

Chargers - J. Dwyer

Jets - G. Tate

Vikings - T. Tebow

Colts - J. Odrick

Saints - M. Iupati

There is a thread up asking for everybody's ideal draft but I wanted to know what player is going to make you throw yourself down the stairs if you see them holding up a 49er jersey come draft time?

The reasons could be many.  You think the player is sure to bust.  You think he doesn't fit our needs or our system.  You think he was a huge reach and we could have got him later.  The decision is yours.

For me it Jason Pierre Paul.  Dude just screams bust to me.  It is the Balmer selection all over again.  Now I am not quite ready to give up completely on Balmer but things aren't looking good.  Beside the bust potential which I suppose exists with every player there is the fact that I unlike a lot of you out there do not think that we need a pass rusher in order to take the next step.

I'll include a poll because I like them with some possible selections but would love to hear all thoughts in the comments.

This one is for accountability so that I have something to reference when my picks go horribly, horribly, wrong on draft day.  Also I wanted to mix it up a little bit and have a little fun.

1  Rams - Sam Bradford - QBOTF 
2  Lions - Ndamakong Suh -  I have a feeling Suh/McCoy will resemble NBA's Oden/ Durant in a few years
3  Bucs  - Gerald McCoy - Meaning the Bucs better hope that the Lions make the wrong choice
4  Redskins - Jimmy Clausen - Does anyone really believe in Jason Campbell
5  Chiefs - Russell Okung -  His Practice battles with Tyson Jackson will be the stuff of legends 
6  Seahawks - CJ Spiller - Carroll wants a playmaker and chooses his next Reggie Bush
7  Browns - Joe Haden - Browns would rather fork out the cash for a CB rather than S Berry
8  Raiders - Jason Pierre Paul - Total Crapshoot - I half expect him to take Brandon Spikes just to mix it up.
9  Bills - Trent Williams - Smarter people than me said so, so take it up with them 
10  Jaguars - Eric Berry - Some one has to do something to try and stop Peyton.
11  Broncos - Dan Williams - Nolan may be gone but his love of big men lingers like a sweet perfume
12  Dolphins - Rolondo McClain - The crazy thing is they're getting him to use in the wild cat.
13  49ers - Bryan Bulaga - Part of the Niners revamped line
14  Seahawks - Bruce Campbell - Someone needs to throw a block for Spiller 60 yards downfield.
15  Giants - Derrick Morgan - In NY getting to the QB means getting to the Super Bowl.
16  Titans  - Brandon Graham - Tennessee settles for the pass rushing left-overs.
17  49ers - Mike Iupati - If Alex Smith cant succeed behing this line then it's time to move on
18  Steelers - Taylor Mays - Will learn from Polamalu about playing safty and about all the different hair products
19  Falcons - Sergio Kindle - Do I really need to come up with a reason for every pick
20  Texans - Earl Thomas - Because the truth is I dont know anything about the Falcons or Texans
21  Bengals - Sean Weatherspoon - They tried the all offense approach, time to sprinkle in a litte D
22  Patriots - Dez Bryant - Because what would Tom Brady do with out an insane amount of weapons
23  Packers - Anthony Davis - Last year Rodgers had more men on him than a young Pam Anderson
24  Eagles - Everson Griffin - 3-4/ 4-3 whatever.  All that matters is putting the QB on his rump.
25  Ravens - Kyle Wilson - Maybe one year Baltimore will have a better Offense than Defense. Maybe Not.
26  Cards - Jermaine Gresham - Matt Leinhart needs all the help he can get.
27  Cowboys - Golden Tate - Jerry Jones doesnt even know what position he plays he just wants GOLD!
28  Chargers  - Ryan Matthews - Grasping at straws for the next Tomlinson
29  Jets - Brandon Spikes - Rex Ryan can't believe the Jets gave up 8 passing TD's.  Time to fix that problem.
30  Vikings - Devin McCourty - Insert generic Joke about Brett Farve being old here.
31  Colts - Jared Odrick - I think that Peyton could throw to High School WR and be Ok.  Colts work on their D.
32  Saints - Carlos Dunlap - Ok time to fess up I just copied the last 5 picks from Drafttek's last CMD.

For those of you that do more than one round. Bravo to you.  1 round is plenty for me.

I think we can all agree on the fact that we need an upgrade in the return department.  The question is who?  There are quite a few options out there in the draft and I was curious to poll the Niners Nation about their thoughts on the different return men.

C.J. Spiller - RB is not a huge need although a COP back would be a nice addition.  Spiller brings that homerun threat that we have been lacking the last few years and the offense and the return game would clearly be improved.  The question is does the talent level between Spiller and the other options warrant using a first round pick on him?

Jahvid Best - Bay Area ties, legitimate return skills, and gives us the COP back and homerun threat.  Has dealt with injuries and isnt quite the talent that Spiller is but we may be able to get him in the 2nd round although we may have to give up a later round pick to move up to do so.

Devin McCourty - The second best CB in the draft but at a 1st round price tag.  Taking him with the 16/17 pick overall wouldnt necessarily be a reach but it wouldn't be a great value either.  If we are going to spend a 1st round pick on a return man is CB a better option than RB?

Kyle Wilson - Another 2nd round pick with Bay area ties and legitimate return skills, but this time from the CB position.  CB isnt really a need for us although you can never have enough, but at the same time Wilson wouldnt have to force his way onto the field right away which could give him a year or two to develop while he provides us with his special team skills.

Javier Arenas - One more CB but this time a 3rd round pick.  The hesitations aren't really about his return skills but more about his play on defense.  Although, if we only invested a 3rd round pick on him would we need him to provide extra value above and beyond his returns.  The later in the draft we are able to legitimately fill needs the more freedom we have to make our team better in the early rounds.

Dexter Mcluster - Burst onto to the scene this year with some seriously big games for Ole Miss.  Is entering the draft as a WR but is really more of an all around playmaker on offense.  Had some quality practices at the senior bowl and his stock is on the rise.  Would need to grab him in the 2nd round and some may feel that is too high a selection for a WR when we already seem to have the position nailed down for the next few years.

Is Tim Lincecum the best 10th overall draft selection in baseball history? 

I went back over each of the draft picks and the only one that is worthy of argument is Mark McGwire.  Here are some notable career achievements from each player.

 

Lincecum: (2 Full Seasons)

McGwire: (17 Full Seasons)

Thought it would make for an interesting discussion. 

Other discussion starters include is Lincecum the best draft pick in Giants History? 

Is Lincecum the greatest player in Baseball History?

If Lincecum used his Fastball to reverse the rotation of the earth and went back in time to face Babe Ruth would he strike him out with a Fastball, Curve, Change-Up, or Slider?

What would happen if Lincecum faced Bonds?  Would we even still exist to discuss such a possibility? 

Ok... Nick Johnson is gone and the list of available free agents is shrinking by the day.  I am sure we are all aware of the team needs but for the sake of this fanpost lets recap -

1) Offense

Ok great.

I think that we are also in agreement that we would perfer a 1B so that Sandoval can stay at 3B and maintain his value in that spot.  So with all that said let me present a case for Mr. Adam Laroche.

Let me start off by saying that I am not thrilled by the idea of Laroche but then again I am not thrilled by the idea of any of the FA on the market.  

So why Laroche?

Well -

He plays a position of need

He is a solid defender

He is a +15 run producer at the plate which would make him an easy second on the team behind Pablo at +34.9

He satisfies the Dingerz gland. Which is marketable, exciting, and provides protection for Sandoval.

He is younger than Johnson and doesnt have a history of injury.

He unlike Zito is trending in the right direction. 2009 saw the best BB%, OBP, and second best OPS and wOBA of his career.  His BABIP was slightly elevated but nothing abnormally high.

His contract demands have softend from 3 and 25 to 3 and 18 which as a 2.4 WAR player is a pretty good value.

His power seems legit as Hittracker has only 2 of his 25 HR listed as Lucky while 19 of the 25 are listed as Plenty or No Doubters.  

Is a type B FA so he wont cost us a pick.

Could provide some return value in a trade whereas our current players obviously arent very desirable. (other than pitchers of course)

That seems to be about it. Although there may be more but I am too lazy to look it up.  I know that there are also red flags but I would rather the Giants go out and make mistakes trying to get better than to sit back and expect different results with the same team.  I only wish that they would be wililng to admit certain mistakes and cut ties with players that are dragging us down.

Thoughts?

Click the link if you dare

Bah-hum-bug 

over all the Offense cost us about 12 wins last year.  Bravo.

I really wanted to discuss the possibility of our offense improving due to the old addittion via subtraction thought process.

Do you think the perging of

Randy Winn = -13.4 Runs below average

Emmanuel Burriss = -12.9

Rich Aurilia = - 10.3

Bengie Molina = -9.3

will be enough to make a difference in our run production.  Or are our replacements going to be equally as bad or worse.

There has been a lot of talk obviously about the differing FA possiblities and trade possibilities that we could pursue.  But one name that was written off pretty quickly is Matt Holliday and I am not sure why.

Holliday is clearly the best FA on the market bringing nearly 6 WAR to the table.  He plays a position that would hopefully force Velez to the bench and wouldn't keep us from pursuing our other FA or trade desires (N. Johnson/ Uggla)

Now I understand that according to Sabean they wont pursue anyone who isnt interested in coming to SF but I am sure that with the right offer minds can be changed.

The biggest problem I see with a Holliday aquistion is the fact that He and Cain have a history of not getting along very well and that may pose a problem.   Also there is the issue of Thomas Neal and his possibly being blocked.

Here comes the climax...

So what if we were to sign Holliday and then traded Cain and ??? to Cin for Joey Votto.  Oh I feel so dirty.

1. Sanchez
2. Scheirholtz
3. Sandoval
4. Holliday
5. Votto
6. Posey
7. Rowand
8. Renteria

Dont judge me.  I have a problem.   

After watching the game tonight and really after watching Cain pitch all year I started to wonder about some things. 

First and foremost is the notion that perhaps Cain should just pitch from the stretch period.  I know we have all heard or seen the stats but they are worth repeating because they are quite frankly unbelieveable.

Bases Empty / From Wind-Up - .326/.384/.449/.833

Runners On / From Strecth - ..150/.250/.230/.480

What do you think? Should Cain go from the stretch?

So I was just reading the story on the rookie OSP (off-season program) and had question that I thought I would pose here.

All offseason we have been hearing about Singletary's montra of 'hardwork"  he had Pain (the hill) built, there is mention of working out in sand in the above article and we know that anything short of an all out effort at practice results in a Singletary speech.

Now to my question, actually two questions.

I haven't read too much about other teams off season conditioning but it does seen like we are making an effort to be the most fit team on the field even if we are not the most talented.  Does this seem true to you?  Are we working harder than other teams at conditioning or is this just run of the mill stuff?

Also why no mention of this in previous off-seasons?  We heard a lot about individual off season work-outs but nothing team wide like this.  Is it just more information for the masses?  Or did Nolan allow the team to get away with less?

Thought it would be fun to take a look at how the top 08 draft picks were doing in spring training thus far.  Those who were invited of course.

In order of draft selection with at least 10 AB-

Play - G/ AB/ AVG/ SLG/ OBP 

Tim Beckham - 11/ 11/ .182/ .273/ .250

Pedro Alvarez - 14/ 18/ .444/ .778/ .500 - 1 HR

Buster Posey - 15/ 19/ .421/ .789/ .435 - 2 HR

Gordon Beckham - 15/ 35/ .257/ .571/ .316 - 2 HR

Justin Smoak - 19/ 23/ .273/ .455/ .304 - 1 HR

Small sample sizes of course but some interesting numbers to say the least. Looks like this is shaping up to be on the better draft classes.

Some interesting notes:

Alvarez - it appears the concerns about his conditioning arent affecting his game.

Posey - Seems to have a bit more power than scouts predicted.

I know these are spring stats and really dont mean much but I think there fun to look at.

Your thoughts?

Sky Kalkman over at Beyond the Boxscore has an interesting couple of articles on how to get the most out of your everyday line-up Via Tom Tango.

Please feel free to follow the links but for those of you refuse here is a quote that gets to the heart of the issue.

Here's how the lineup spots rank in the importance of avoiding outs:

#1, #4, #2, #5, #3, #6, #7, #8, #9

So, you want your best three hitters to hit in the #1, #4, and #2 spots.  Distribute them so OBP is higher in the order and SLG is lower.  Then place your fourth and fifth best hitters, with the #5 spot usually seeing the better hitter, unless he's a high-homerun guy.  Then place your four remaining hitters in decreasing order of overall hitting ability, with basestealers ahead of singles hitters.  Finally, stop talking like the lineup is a make-or-break decision.

An interesting concept in and of itself but coupled with the breaking news from earlier today and it seems we have the recipe for a fan-post.  So without furthur ado I give you the optimal line-up for the 2009 SF Giants.

Ok maybe a little more ado.  Before we get to the final product lets take a look at how Chone projects our offense based on runs created above average per 150 games.

Here are the numbers from best to worst for the 8 projected starters (giving Frandsen the nod)....

Winn -

Lewis -

Rowand -

Renteria -

Frandsen -

Ishikawa -

Molina -

Sandoval -  

Sorry about the formatting I dont really know what I'm doing. 

So according to Tango and Kalkman (whom I am basically copying with this fanpost) we would want our best 3 hitters in the #1, #2, and #4 spots.  With the highest OBP at the top and the power towards the middle.

So for our lead-off spot it really is a toss up between Lewis and Winn.  Either would do nicely but I tend to buy into the hype and think that Lewis will hit for more power.  So I'm going with Winn here.

Next we take our "best" remaining hitters and place them in the #2 and #4 spots based on projected OBP (#2) and SLG (#4).  That to me says Lewis and Rowand respectively.

So far we have Winn, Lewis, XXX, Rowand.  For the #3 and #5 spots we want the better hitter in the 5-hole with the player most reliant upon homeruns in the #3 spot. I'm going with Frandsen 3rd and Renteria 5th.

Placing the following 3 hitters in order of ability we end up with Ishikawa, Molina, Sandoval.

So the final product looks something like this.

1. Winn
2. Lewis
3. Frandsen
4. Rowand
5. Renteria
6. Ishikawa
7. Molina
8. Sandoval
9. Pitcher

Alright I have to stop here and say two things.  First, I will admit that I havent had the most realistic outlook concerning this years offense.   But I had no idea it was gonna be this bad.  That line-up optimized to the max still looks like a steaming pile.

Secondly, are we putting too much stock into Pablo's ability to save us.  I know the dude can hit bad balls but I am starting to wonder how much of an impact he is really going to make if he cant keep his BA high.

Anywho, here it is.  I hope you find it interesting and thought provoking.  Let me hear what you think.

I thought that with the recent discussion placing Bumgarner against Chacin being so one sided I wanted to see what the community thought about Chacin vs Alderson.

One of the big problems with comparing pitchers is that there are so many variables to consider especially in the minors.  Age, level, hype, projection, performance, scouting reports, stats, and handedness, all play a deciding factor in where we place one or the other.  So in fairness to the discussion I tried to pick two pitchers that are relatively equal to one another on a number of subjects. 

So if you had to choose one or the other:

Key - W/L, IP, ERA, BB, K, GO/FO, AVG, K/BB, K/9, BB/9

Alderson - 13/4, 145.1, 2.79, 34, 124, 1.02, .235, 3.65, 7.69, 2.1

Last 10  - 6/1, 2.29, 7, 53

Chacin (CAL League only) - 8/2, 66.1, 2.31, 12, 62, 2.83, .247, 5.1, 8.44, 1.63

Last 10 - 6/2, 2.75, 11, 51