Click the link if you dare

Bah-hum-bug 

over all the Offense cost us about 12 wins last year.  Bravo.

I really wanted to discuss the possibility of our offense improving due to the old addittion via subtraction thought process.

Do you think the perging of

Randy Winn = -13.4 Runs below average

Emmanuel Burriss = -12.9

Rich Aurilia = - 10.3

Bengie Molina = -9.3

will be enough to make a difference in our run production.  Or are our replacements going to be equally as bad or worse.

There has been a lot of talk obviously about the differing FA possiblities and trade possibilities that we could pursue.  But one name that was written off pretty quickly is Matt Holliday and I am not sure why.

Holliday is clearly the best FA on the market bringing nearly 6 WAR to the table.  He plays a position that would hopefully force Velez to the bench and wouldn't keep us from pursuing our other FA or trade desires (N. Johnson/ Uggla)

Now I understand that according to Sabean they wont pursue anyone who isnt interested in coming to SF but I am sure that with the right offer minds can be changed.

The biggest problem I see with a Holliday aquistion is the fact that He and Cain have a history of not getting along very well and that may pose a problem.   Also there is the issue of Thomas Neal and his possibly being blocked.

Here comes the climax...

So what if we were to sign Holliday and then traded Cain and ??? to Cin for Joey Votto.  Oh I feel so dirty.

1. Sanchez
2. Scheirholtz
3. Sandoval
4. Holliday
5. Votto
6. Posey
7. Rowand
8. Renteria

Dont judge me.  I have a problem.   

After watching the game tonight and really after watching Cain pitch all year I started to wonder about some things. 

First and foremost is the notion that perhaps Cain should just pitch from the stretch period.  I know we have all heard or seen the stats but they are worth repeating because they are quite frankly unbelieveable.

Bases Empty / From Wind-Up - .326/.384/.449/.833

Runners On / From Strecth - ..150/.250/.230/.480

What do you think? Should Cain go from the stretch?

So I was just reading the story on the rookie OSP (off-season program) and had question that I thought I would pose here.

All offseason we have been hearing about Singletary's montra of 'hardwork"  he had Pain (the hill) built, there is mention of working out in sand in the above article and we know that anything short of an all out effort at practice results in a Singletary speech.

Now to my question, actually two questions.

I haven't read too much about other teams off season conditioning but it does seen like we are making an effort to be the most fit team on the field even if we are not the most talented.  Does this seem true to you?  Are we working harder than other teams at conditioning or is this just run of the mill stuff?

Also why no mention of this in previous off-seasons?  We heard a lot about individual off season work-outs but nothing team wide like this.  Is it just more information for the masses?  Or did Nolan allow the team to get away with less?

Thought it would be fun to take a look at how the top 08 draft picks were doing in spring training thus far.  Those who were invited of course.

In order of draft selection with at least 10 AB-

Play - G/ AB/ AVG/ SLG/ OBP 

Tim Beckham - 11/ 11/ .182/ .273/ .250

Pedro Alvarez - 14/ 18/ .444/ .778/ .500 - 1 HR

Buster Posey - 15/ 19/ .421/ .789/ .435 - 2 HR

Gordon Beckham - 15/ 35/ .257/ .571/ .316 - 2 HR

Justin Smoak - 19/ 23/ .273/ .455/ .304 - 1 HR

Small sample sizes of course but some interesting numbers to say the least. Looks like this is shaping up to be on the better draft classes.

Some interesting notes:

Alvarez - it appears the concerns about his conditioning arent affecting his game.

Posey - Seems to have a bit more power than scouts predicted.

I know these are spring stats and really dont mean much but I think there fun to look at.

Your thoughts?

Sky Kalkman over at Beyond the Boxscore has an interesting couple of articles on how to get the most out of your everyday line-up Via Tom Tango.

Please feel free to follow the links but for those of you refuse here is a quote that gets to the heart of the issue.

Here's how the lineup spots rank in the importance of avoiding outs:

#1, #4, #2, #5, #3, #6, #7, #8, #9

So, you want your best three hitters to hit in the #1, #4, and #2 spots.  Distribute them so OBP is higher in the order and SLG is lower.  Then place your fourth and fifth best hitters, with the #5 spot usually seeing the better hitter, unless he's a high-homerun guy.  Then place your four remaining hitters in decreasing order of overall hitting ability, with basestealers ahead of singles hitters.  Finally, stop talking like the lineup is a make-or-break decision.

An interesting concept in and of itself but coupled with the breaking news from earlier today and it seems we have the recipe for a fan-post.  So without furthur ado I give you the optimal line-up for the 2009 SF Giants.

Ok maybe a little more ado.  Before we get to the final product lets take a look at how Chone projects our offense based on runs created above average per 150 games.

Here are the numbers from best to worst for the 8 projected starters (giving Frandsen the nod)....

Winn -

Lewis -

Rowand -

Renteria -

Frandsen -

Ishikawa -

Molina -

Sandoval -  

Sorry about the formatting I dont really know what I'm doing. 

So according to Tango and Kalkman (whom I am basically copying with this fanpost) we would want our best 3 hitters in the #1, #2, and #4 spots.  With the highest OBP at the top and the power towards the middle.

So for our lead-off spot it really is a toss up between Lewis and Winn.  Either would do nicely but I tend to buy into the hype and think that Lewis will hit for more power.  So I'm going with Winn here.

Next we take our "best" remaining hitters and place them in the #2 and #4 spots based on projected OBP (#2) and SLG (#4).  That to me says Lewis and Rowand respectively.

So far we have Winn, Lewis, XXX, Rowand.  For the #3 and #5 spots we want the better hitter in the 5-hole with the player most reliant upon homeruns in the #3 spot. I'm going with Frandsen 3rd and Renteria 5th.

Placing the following 3 hitters in order of ability we end up with Ishikawa, Molina, Sandoval.

So the final product looks something like this.

1. Winn
2. Lewis
3. Frandsen
4. Rowand
5. Renteria
6. Ishikawa
7. Molina
8. Sandoval
9. Pitcher

Alright I have to stop here and say two things.  First, I will admit that I havent had the most realistic outlook concerning this years offense.   But I had no idea it was gonna be this bad.  That line-up optimized to the max still looks like a steaming pile.

Secondly, are we putting too much stock into Pablo's ability to save us.  I know the dude can hit bad balls but I am starting to wonder how much of an impact he is really going to make if he cant keep his BA high.

Anywho, here it is.  I hope you find it interesting and thought provoking.  Let me hear what you think.

I thought that with the recent discussion placing Bumgarner against Chacin being so one sided I wanted to see what the community thought about Chacin vs Alderson.

One of the big problems with comparing pitchers is that there are so many variables to consider especially in the minors.  Age, level, hype, projection, performance, scouting reports, stats, and handedness, all play a deciding factor in where we place one or the other.  So in fairness to the discussion I tried to pick two pitchers that are relatively equal to one another on a number of subjects. 

So if you had to choose one or the other:

Key - W/L, IP, ERA, BB, K, GO/FO, AVG, K/BB, K/9, BB/9

Alderson - 13/4, 145.1, 2.79, 34, 124, 1.02, .235, 3.65, 7.69, 2.1

Last 10  - 6/1, 2.29, 7, 53

Chacin (CAL League only) - 8/2, 66.1, 2.31, 12, 62, 2.83, .247, 5.1, 8.44, 1.63

Last 10 - 6/2, 2.75, 11, 51