SB Nation User Blog: Frank Madden

Friday Notes: Childress vs. Sessions, more Jennings, Ilyasova decision soon?

Frank Madden — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 18:29:39 -0000

Some of Jennings' European highlights for your viewing pleasure

Gardner: Childress in town, Sessions talk
As planned, Josh Childress was in town to visit with the Bucks yesterday, but what happens next is tougher to figure out. If you use the MLE on Childress and don't make any other moves, then Sessions is gone. There simply isn't the money available to sign him for a reasonable deal and stay under the tax. And as much as I like Chill's game--he's smart, efficient, and versatile--I'm not sure I'd feel comfortable with that tradeoff (Curak and MTH had some good comments in yesterday's notes to the same effect). Why go for Sessions over Childress? For a few reasons:
1. Let the kids play. It's not to say the Bucks' small forward position is going to scare anyone, but I'd like to give Mbah a Moute and Alexander a chance to play this season. Mbah a Moute in particular could be a long-term keeper, though both guys can also get minutes at the 4.
2. Expiring deals give flexibility to add depth. The contracts of Luke Ridnour, Kurt Thomas, and Bruce Bowen (though it might be better used to shave $2 million off the Bucks' cap number) could also be used to deal for more depth at the swing spots in the near term. You're probably not getting a player of Childress' caliber, but you can't have everything.
3. Betting on Jennings is still a risk. As much potential as he might have, there's simply no guarantee Brandon Jennings will ever pan out, and expecting him to be a major contributor next year would seem unrealistic. Given the importance of the PG position, I'd much rather be betting on two young guys than just one--especially when the guy who's under contract is 19 and a long ways from being a sure thing. Could it create some awkwardness? Sure. But the point is to get as many good players as possible, and the Bucks' best chance of getting a quality player at a good price is by re-signing Sessions.
Gardner specifically mentions the possibility of a sign-and-trade with Atlanta, and a couple points bear mentioning here. First, it's not technically possible to extend an offer sheet, have it matched, and then S/T for the player. If the Bucks want to S/T for Childress, they'd have to come to an agreement with Childress and then agree on a trade with the Hawks. The Hawks could then sign Childress and immediately trade him for whatever the Bucks were offering. However, if the Bucks have an offer for Childress matched, they have to wait a calendar year before trading for him. Them's the rules.

Unfortunately, expiring deals by themselves aren't of use to the Hawks, since they can also just let Childress walk and be no worse off cap-wise. And though a S/T makes sense in general from a Hawk perspective--get something for a guy you probably aren't re-signing anyway--I'm not sure there's an obvious fit given the Bucks' assets. Atlanta would have cap space if Mike Bibby and Marvin Williams weren't re-signed, but I'm guessing those are their top priorities, and Williams in particular makes Childress expendable.

But what would the Bucks offer? Luke Ridnour could be useful as a backup, but I'm not sure any teams would take Ridnour off the Bucks' hands for anything of value. Assuming Chill's deal is around the MLE, the Bucks could offer a package of Joe Alexander along with some smaller expiring deals, which would seem to give Atlanta at least something for their troubles. However, Bowen and Thomas couldn't be included in a deal immediately. Per the CBA, the Bucks have to wait until late August before they can deal those guys in a deal that aggregates their salaries (they could be traded straight up). You could however use the less attractive Allen and Elson contracts to try to make something work. The good news is that sending salary out for Childress would free up dollars to potentially bring back Sessions as well, but it wouldn't be easy.

Gardner also got some good quotes from Sessions' agent Chubby Wells, who offers a bit of intel on where Ramon's head is at.

"I talked to John Hammond, and we both want to see the process play out," Wells said. "We'll see what's out there."
"I really think they do (want to retain Sessions)," Wells said. "John has always been a straight shooter, and I think they definitely have an interest."

To be continued. As Wells alludes to, the UFA point guards will probably go first, so the longer it takes for Jason Kidd, Mike Bibby, and Andre Miller to sign deals, the longer Sessions will probably have to wait as well. The main reason for that is the semantics of restricted free agency. If a team signs Sessions to a deal now, their cap dollars could be tied up for a week while the Bucks decide to match or not, meaning they could miss out on other guys in that period. Practically speaking, I'd guess the Bucks would match immediately if the deal was reasonable, but they could let the other team squirm as well. That means there's a risk to going after Sessions which doesn't exist with UFAs, and for that reason things tend to move in slow motion for RFAs...especially if it looks like their own team wants them back.

On the good news front, Portland is reportedly signing Hedo Turkoglu to a $50 million deal, which by my math would eliminate the Blazers' ability to be a player for Sessions. Now we just need the Knicks to sign someone else.
RealGM: Ilyasova decision by July 15?
Over at RealGM, there's a translation of a Spanish article reporting that Ersan Ilyasova has to decide whether to opt out of his Barcelona deal by July 15th. His Barca deal is 1.5 million net of taxes, so an equivalent pre-tax NBA salary would be in the $3 million range. That's probably a bit rich if the Bucks want to keep Sessions as well, but it's very possible the Bucks get him at a slight discount--he certainly seems to want to come back to the NBA, and the Bucks can offer both an excellent opportunity to play (heck, he could even start) as well as familiar surroundings (his wife is from Milwaukee).
Bucks Diary: Why the NBA's salary structure is so whack.
Ty hits the nail on the head with this one.

So, from almost any financial perspective, the Bucks appear to have set themselves on a saner path... one that offers at least the hope for a better tomorrow. But what has been the national media's interpretation of the aforementioned moves? In a nutshell: The Bucks can't afford to compete and are giving up and/or "rebuilding" (media speak for "preparing to lose a lot of games").
I think a lot of this is simply the media not really caring enough to look at the Bucks' situation in greater detail. For example Chad Ford--who actually broke the RJ deal--also claimed the Bucks would target CV over Sessions in free agency. That was news to everyone who actually follows the Bucks, and we all know how things have turned out.

Of course, John Hammond has seen first hand the value of letting players leave if the price is too high--Ben Wallace being the prime example. The Pistons also allowed Memo Okur to take huge dollars from Utah in 2003, and it didn't prevent them from continuing to win 50 games and go to the conference finals every year. Now the Bucks have done something similar with Villanueva, and the Pistons are ironically on the other side. We'll see how it works out. I'm sure Charlie will put up better numbers than anyone the Bucks have at PF next year, and his high-volume, lower efficiency scoring could have been useful to take some of the burden off Michael Redd and Andrew Bogut.
WSSP: Lots of Bucks' audio
Living on the East Coast, I barely listen to sports radio since they never talk about teams I care about. And even in Milwaukee it's often tough to find Bucks talk with the Packers and Brewers around. Fortunately, WSSP not only talks a lot of Bucks (thanks Sparky, Gery, Doug, Mike and Gary) but puts it all in their audio vault. There's a ton of stuff to listen to there, including interviews with Brandon Jennings' legendary high school coach Steve Smith, Scott Skiles, and lots of Gery Woelfel.

Fact of the day: According to Smith, Jennings once hit 14 threes in a single game in high school (NBA.com says it was 13, but same difference). Given he couldn't hit 30% last year in Europe, I'm guessing he's kinda streaky, eh?
540 ESPN: Bucks audio
Not to be outdone, ESPN 540 also has a bunch of Bucks-related podcasts up. John Hammond's chat with Homer the day after the draft was interesting in that it confirmed the Bucks presumed starting lineup given the current guys under contract: Ridnour, Redd, Mbah a Moute, Johnson and Bogut.
Gardner: Meeks meets Milwaukee
Jodie Meeks is in town and getting used to his new digs. Charles Gardner also uncovers a good hint as to why the Bucks liked him so much despite not bringing him in for a workout. Take it away, Dave Babcock:

"I went to see him and Patrick Patterson, and he moves so well without the ball and obviously he's a very good shooter," Babcock said of Meeks, who will turn 22 in August. "Couple with that he's physical, strong and a good defender, for him to be at 41 was sort of shocking."

DX and Chad Ford both had him as a late second-rounder, so "shocking" is probably an exaggeration. But it never hurts to pimp your second rounders, does it?
When in Rome: Brandon Jennings' blog
I alluded to this on draft night, but Jennings has an active blog over on Under Armour's website. Apparently when a shoe company gives you a $2 million contract, they'll also host your blog. Surprising, eh?

Thursday Notes: Villanueva heading to Detroit, Sessions and Ilyasova get courtesy calls, Jennings headlines Vegas roster

Frank Madden — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 04:51:54 -0000

ESPN: Villanueva gets five years, $40 million from Pistons. Well, that didn't take long. On the first day of free agency, the Pistons have reportedly reached an agreement to pay Charlie V an average of $8 million per season over the next five. Especially considering they are also on the verge of giving Ben Gordon five years and $55 million, the Pistons' decision to sell off Chauncey Billups for cap room is looking...well, interesting. With Stuckey, Prince and Hamilton still in the fold as well, the Pistons certainly have some talent, but it's tough to figure out what direction the team is going. If you trade Billups for an expiring deal like Iverson's, then why give the less valuable and similarly aging Rip Hamilton a big extension the same week? And then why use most of your free agency dollars on an exceptional shooting but undersized guy who plays the same position as Hamilton? I guess a Hamilton trade is imminent, but neither CV nor Gordon are the types of franchise-changing guys you'd hope to snag with all that cap room.

You could say this somehow validates the Bucks' decision to let CV walk. After all, they'd understandably never throw that kind of coin at CV. However, if the Bucks had made their intention of re-signing CV clear and given him a QO it's unlikely he would have gotten nearly that much--RFAs just don't generate the same interest in the open market. Still, I think it's understandable, if a bit regrettable, that given the tax situation they let Villanueva walk. He'll probably put up good numbers next year, but I don't think anyone ever questioned his ability to put up stats. One thing's for sure: we wish Charlie the best of luck in Motown.
Woelfel: Childress visits, Sessions getting attention. The idea of pursuing outside free agents was basically a foreign concept to me for the past few months, so I haven't really even been talking about it. But now that the Bucks have some luxury tax breathing room it's once again an option--especially with Charlie V gone and Ramon Sessions' future up in the air. One intriguing possibility is former Hawks' swingman Josh Childress, whom Woelfel reports was in town today. It seems like ages ago that I harbored vague and in retrospect comical dreams of using Jamaal Magloire as bait to pry Childress from the big man-starved Hawks, but in reality that was just three years ago. Hey, Magloire wasn't that bad at the time.

Combining efficient scoring with the length to be a disruptive defender, Childress could either start at small forward or be a killer sixth man at both the big guard and three. He's still technically the Hawks' RFA, but with Bibby and Marvin Williams also in free agency it's possible the Hawks could let him walk for a full MLE deal (the most the Bucks could offer) or more. Or he can play another year in Greece. As for Sessions, he's getting plenty of attention:

James "Chubby'' Wells, Sessions' agent, said his client received four calls within a half hour of the start of free agency. One of them was from Bucks general manager John Hammond. "There were between 10 and 12 teams that contacted me today,'' Wells said. "And I still have two other teams that I know who are interested in Ramon that will be contacting me.''
I'd guess most of the big name UFAs to come to agreements in the next week or so, at which point restricted guys like Sessions will get more attention from the remaining teams with cap room. As a sidenote, Sessions is Wells' only NBA client as far as I know, which could be either a good or bad thing from an ease-of-re-signing perspective.
Gardner: Hammond calls Sessions, Ilyasova. Echoing Woelfel's column, Charles Gardner writes that Sessions and Ersan Ilyasova both got calls from John Hammond as soon as free agency started. As a Sessions fan, I'm hoping the Bucks start to make their interest a bit more overt, as it would help ward off other teams interested in giving him an offer sheet. That might be wishful thinking, though.

Hammond confirmed that he also made a call to 6-9 forward Ersan Ilyasova, a restricted free agent. Ilyasova played the past two seasons for Regal FC Barcelona in Spain.
It is thought that Ilyasova is genuinely interested in returning to the Bucks, who drafted him in 2005.

The JS has been playing up the possibility of Ilyasova returning for a couple weeks, which has been a clear signal of the Bucks' interest in bringing him back. After all, the JS almost never speculates on this stuff.
BUCKS.com: Vegas roster out. No big surprises on the Bucks' summer league roster, which will be headlined by rookies Brandon Jennings and Jodie Meeks as well as sophomores Joe Alexander and Luc Mbah a Moute. Salim Stoudamire will also be there, playing for the first time in over a year. Notable free agents include Marquette's Dominic James, former Flordia and T'Wolves big Chris Richard, and (gasp) Szymon Szewczyk! In case you'd forgotten, Szewczyk was drafted by the Bucks in the second round waaaaaay back in 2003, ahead of such notables as Mo Williams and Kyle Korver. He's bounced around Europe since then, but is technically still Bucks' property.

I'll be credentialed in Vegas for the first two games and should be liveblogging them as they happen. Hopefully they will all be streamed on NBA.com again as well. Obviously the big story will be watching Jennings make his debut in a Bucks' (practice) uniform. Given the way little guys like Nate Robinson and Jerryd Bayless have dominated Vegas in past years, Jennings could put on a show--even if he's not quite ready to do so come November. Just as interesting to me will be keeping an eye on Alexander, who has been working out diligently at the Cousins Center in the hopes of rebounding from a difficult rookie season. He wasn't a major factor last year in Vegas, which turned out to be an early warning sign of what was to come.

Monday Notes: Villanueva not returning, more on Jennings

Frank Madden — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 22:30:06 -0000

Gardner: No qualifying offer for Villanueva. As we've assumed for a while, Charles Gardner writes that the Bucks are officially moving on without Charlie Villanueva. John Hammond confirmed today that the Bucks would not make a qualifying offer of $4.6 million to Villanueva, meaning he will become an unrestricted free agent on Wednesday. I think I speak for most Bucks fans when I wish Charlie the best, though it will certainly be harder to root for him if he ends up in Cleveland. The Bucks have already make QOs to Ramon Sessions and Ersan Ilyasova, but that's understandable since their QOs are only around $1 million each. The problem with CV's offer is that it wasn't completely unrealistic for him to accept the QO if he couldn't find an attractive offer in free agency (probably not likely, but not impossible). In that scenario he could have played another year in Milwaukee and then been an UFA next summer.

However, with at most $8 million of room under the luxury tax this summer, the Bucks would have had a hard time matching an offer for Sessions if CV took the QO--and I'd guess they might prefer a cheaper deal for the more defensively capable Ilyasova anyway. Not extending a QO to Villanueva could also help the Bucks' efforts in re-signing Sessions--we've talked a bit about the importance of scaring off potential suitors for Sessions, and the Bucks suddenly look a lot more serious about bringing back Sessions now that they've officially cut bait on CV. What we haven't heard is a forceful statement by the Bucks that they will match offers for Sessions. One positive is that a bunch of teams that might have been interested in Sessions just drafted young PGs--notably Minnesota, Atlanta, and Philadelphia. That still leaves the Knicks and Portland as potential threats, though the availability of unrestricted free agents like Jason Kidd, Mike Bibby, and Andre Miller might be more immediate targets. The Knicks might also still be in the hunt for Ricky Rubio.
Enlund: Busy weeks brings options. With RJ gone and Villanueva now set to follow, the Bucks will be losing a fair bit of scoring punch. Then again, Scott Skiles didn't sound too concerned last week...after all, it's early:

"I'm not (concerned right now) because we're in June. I don't think you can ride that wave of looking four months in advance. You always have to have a concern what your roster is looking like. But we'll see as we keep moving on this summer and what opportunities we have."
Sure, it's possible the Bucks use their expiring deals to add a scorer between now and the start of the season, but the best we can probably hope for from free agency is re-signing Sessions and bringing back Ilyasova. Ersan has developed into a good spot-up shooter from the shorter international three point line, and if he does return he'll be expected to offer similar defense-stretching skills next season. Right now the Bucks are desperately short in that department, as Joe Alexander is their only forward capable of hitting threes with any regularity. However, Ilyasova isn't going to create his own shot, a skill decidedly lacking among the Bucks' wing players right now (with the exception of Michael Redd). That means more of the offensive load will fall upon Andrew Bogut's shoulders, and Sessions' ability to get to the rim would also be a major bonus should he return. Still, I'm a bit worried about their lack of perimeter shooting, which would only encourage teams to sag down on Bogut and beg Sessions to beat them from the outside.
Bucks.com: Jennings Press Conference. Jim Paschke brings you video from Brandon Jennings' introduction to the Milwaukee media. I can only assume he's sick of explaining the virtues of his year abroad in Rome, which is starting to remind me of Joe Alexander's constant rehashing of Bob Huggins' importance after last year's draft. Needless to say, I don't envy players having to answer the same question 800 times. By the way, I love the fact that John Hammond says that as much as Jennings was a risky pick, they were also "scared to death" of not taking him. That was my reaction as well, though I'm also plenty nervous about whether he actually lives up to his sizable potential. Then again, I haven't spent inordinate amounts of time scouting the guy.
Gardner: Johnson's fresh start. Gardner has a bit more on Amir Johnson, the guy who at the moment is slated to get a big chunk of the minutes at PF.

Bucks coach Scott Skiles said the plan was for Johnson to practice with the Bucks' rookie league squad in its minicamp next week, although the four-year veteran is not eligible to play with the team in Las Vegas.
"He has the length to guard the big guys," Hammond said, "but he doesn't have the strength yet. He is getting stronger; he's got a good body. But you give him a chance to play that power forward position and you put a legitimate center next to him like Andrew Bogut, I think it will give him a chance to really excel and show his true strengths."
Givony: Jennings' Euro Trip. One of the best reads on Jennings' experiences in Rome comes courtesy of DX's Jonathan Givony, who had the chance to watch Jennings play and practice in Europe in May. The whole thing is worth a read, but I'll cherry pick one of the more promising parts to start:

What separates him from the Aaron Brooks’ and Monta Ellis’ of the world, though are his playmaking instincts. His talent and creativity with the ball were always evident in the games, scrimmages and practices we saw, as he sees the floor and is capable of making incredibly difficult passes look easy, in a way that no point guard in this draft not named Ricky Rubio can. Over the course of our three days in Rome, we saw Jennings make a handful of mind-blowing plays that hint of an incredible future that is in store, particularly in transition or running the pick and roll.
It's interesting how Jennings is widely lauded by scouts for his playmaking, despite the fact that he was often forced to play off the ball in Rome and was more of a scorer in his last year at Oak Hill. One concern I've had is that Jennings at his best might fancy himself too much of a scorer, which based on his shaky outside shot doesn't seem like a very good thing.
Sporting News: Jennings unplugged...unfortunately. Well, it didn't take long for Jennings' brashness to cause a bit of controversy. Chris Littmann has more on Jennings' friend/rapper Joe Budden recording of Jennings' occasionally off-color comments, which it didn't sound like Jennings was aware of.

And really, none of the comments should come as a shock, because if you don't know Jennings for his swagger at this point, what do you know him for?
I was actually expecting something much worse when I first heard about this, and went back and forth about posting it in the first place. Still, it is interesting that Jennings alludes to the Bucks using their remaining dollars to re-sign Charlie Villanueva rather than Ramon Sessions--when the opposite seems to be true.
FanPosts: How the Bucks Drafted for Need Mitchell makes some good points over in the fanposts. Also check out his initial response to draft night.

Deep Threat: Bucks take Jodie Meeks 41st

Frank Madden — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 03:03:47 -0000

Meeks had a 10 minute highlight reel against Tennessee

I was desperately hoping DeJuan Blair might slip a few more spots, but instead the Bucks settled on Kentucky scoring machine Jodie Meeks. Especially with Richard Jefferson gone, the Bucks are short on perimeter scorers so Meeks could certainly play a role as a floor-spacer off the bench. Meeks led Kentucky with 23.7 ppg on .463/.406/.902 shooting, including three games of 45+ points. At 6'4" and 211 pounds, he's got a short wingspan (6'4.5") but a good max vert (37") and he's supposed to be a reasonable defender. He doesn't rebound, pass, or create his own shot that well, but he's got the makings of a good role player and could steal minutes from Charlie Bell.

Among others, the Bucks passed on Jerel McNeal, Danny Green, Nick Calathes, Ahmad Nivins, and Chase Budinger (what happened to him?). We'll see if it pans out.

Young Buck: Bucks take Brandon Jennings 10th

Frank Madden — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 01:04:32 -0000

Brandon Jennings: fashionably late

No one in the draft scared me more than Brandon Jennings...so naturally he's now a Buck. As one of the highest risk/reward guys in the draft, Jennings was scary to pick and equally scary to pass on. Having played only sporadically for Roma in his year abroad, Jennings has been the draft's biggest mystery man, and only after his performance Monday against Jonny Flynn, Ty Lawson, and Jeff Teague did he seem to become a major part of the Bucks' draft discussion. Here's what we do know:

Jennings' European stats aren't remotely impressive, but given how many 19 year old Americans have played in Europe, it's tough to tell how damning that really is. Still, John Hollinger's translated numbers are "awful" and Ty's analysis also gave him the thumbs down. Yes, I'm concerned about this.
Jennings' talents--even if unrefined--are undeniable. Though not big (6'1", 170), he's probably got the best first step in the draft and can jump out of the gym. And yes, he showed he could play in high school, averaging 35.5 ppg and 7.5 apg while garnering Parade Player of the Year honors as a senior at Oak Hill.
Andy Katz reported the Bucks had Flynn ranked higher on their board, but went with Jennings after Flynn went sixth to Minnesota. Interestingly, Skiles has been mentioned as championing Jennings' cause with the Bucks which is...well, surprising. On some level it's reassuring, because if Skiles likes him then he might not be as risky as we think. Or Skiles might just be a terrible talent evaluator.
What now with Ramon Sessions? The Bucks are no doubt shopping Luke Ridnour hard right now, and moving him soon would certainly clarify things a bit. Short-term Sessions still seems like the obvious starter if he comes back, as Jennings doesn't seem to have the polish needed to get major minutes for Skiles right now. Long-term is less clear--obviously the Bucks didn't pick Jennings to be a career back-up, and Sessions is still just 23 years old. That could make for some awkwardness down the road, but if Sessions can be had for good value then there's no reason not to bring him back and let the two guys fight it out.
Even if the Bucks let Charlie Villanueva walk, they won't be lacking in the new media-embracing-athlete department. Jennings kept a very interesting blog while in Rome and tweets prolifically as well. I'm sure that's what won over Scott Skiles.
In terms of making a splash and generating interest, Jennings fits the bill. Given his brash style on and off the court and unique backstory, Jennings should spark about as much initial interest as anyone picked 10th overall.
The more I think about the more I appreciate the Bucks' willingness to roll the dice. We always say how the draft is usually the only means of acquiring star players, so there's a lot to be said for going after one of the few guys with superstar potential. Is he Allen Iverson? Is he Tony Parker? Is he Sebastian Telfair? We'll have to wait a while to know for sure.

2009 NBA Draft Open Thread: Jennings goes 10th

Frank Madden — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 20:04:34 -0000

The draft is still a few hours away but I'll be using this post as an "open" for any commentary you might have as draft night goes on. I'll also be dumping any fresh rumors in this thread. And as a reminder, you can use your Yahoo or Open ID logins on this and any other Sports Blog Nation website.

UPDATE (7:35 CT): Jennings is indeed the pick, over Holiday.

UPDATE (6:50 CT):

Woelfel says Knicks could trade down to take Rubio and Curry could slip to Bucks; however, that was based on them trading with OKC at three and OKC just took Harden (from htr@RealGM)
Ford's Mock 7.3 still says Jennings

DX: Holiday over Jennings...or maybe not. DX has been yo-yoing on this and just a little while ago they had Jennings here. Now, their front page has Holiday 10th and Jennings slipping to 17th. Givony wrote:
With DeMar DeRozan on much shakier ground in Toronto (#9) than initially thought, there is a pretty legit possibility that he could be on the board at 10 when Milwaukee picks. Just days after trading an extremely athletic wing player in Richard Jefferson, you would assume that this would appear to be a perfect fit…Apparently not, though, since they seem to have their heart set on drafting a point guard, with Brandon Jennings being one player that Assistant GM Jeff Weltman seems to be especially fond of. We had Jennings slipping all the way to the #17 pick in our last mock draft, which would definitely make him the steal of the draft, but have moved him back up to #10…for now.
Ford: Jennings over Holiday (13th). Ford also has a "confidence level" for each pick (if the guy's available), and it's pretty high on this one--70%.
The Bucks have three point guards on their board -- Jonny Flynn, Jrue Holiday and Jennings. Over the last 48 hours, all of the momentum has been going in the direction of Jennings, even if Flynn falls to them.I think Jennings' upside and star potential have the Bucks wowed at the moment.
RealGM: Bucks/Bulls trade talk. Unclear if there's much behind this, but there's at least a rumor about Ridnour, Elson and #10 going to Chicago for Kirk Hinrich. My first reaction is I'd rather roll the dice with whoever we get at 10 than take an established solid-but-not-great guy like Hinrich. Ridnour and Elson are expiring so it's not like they're impossible to move otherwise. And while I like Hinrich in general, but he's got three years and $26.5 million left on his deal--not horrendous or anything, but not a bargain either. However, you could play him in a backcourt with Sessions since both guys have good size and Hinrich often defends SGs.

The Bucks would actually shave a few hundred grand off their current payroll since Hinrich's due $10 million this year and the three Bucks are currently on the books for $10.3 million, but next year they'd be adding about $7 million.

Speaking of Chicago, I thought there was some talk a while back about the Bulls talking to the Nets about swapping picks #16/26 for the Nets' #11, but I haven't heard about the Bucks doing the same deal for #10. Given that guys like Jennings and Blair could slip to 16 or lower, that'd be an interesting gamble.
JS: Bucks keeping options open. There's a mention of a Ridnour/Stackhouse trade, though that seems almost too good to be true. Stackhouse only has $2 million of his deal guaranteed next year, so a straight up deal would save the Bucks $4.5 million. I'd be shocked (but ecstatic) if the Mavs can't get more than Ridnour for that, especially given how few sizable non-guaranteed deals there are out there.

Enlund also writes the Bucks are "highly unlikely" to even make Charlie Villanueva his $4.6 million qualifying offer, which would make him an unrestricted free agent. Considering Sessions could get up to an MLE deal and the Bucks will only have around $8 million or less under the tax (if nothing changes), you can see why they might not even bother. Enlund also mentions Ilyasova prominently, so it does appear the replace-Charlie-with-Ersan idea is very much in play. However, the other benefit of not giving CV a QO is that it would clearly show the Bucks are making Sessions' return a priority. And the more they can make that clear, the less likely he is to get an offer sheet from another team.

Wednesday Notes: Final Pre-Draft News, more trade reaction

Frank Madden — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 02:37:11 -0000

More photos » by Eric Gay - AP

Good luck in Texas, RJ

Browse more photos »

DX: DeRozan suddenly falling to Bucks? By now you've seen me mention DeMar DeRozan's name a bunch of times as a major upside pick who unfortunately hasn't been on the Bucks radar (at least not from anything I've seen). Well, with less than 24 hours until draft time that could be changing. Jonathan Givony reports that Jonny Flynn could now be gone as high as fourth to the Kings while Toronto could opt for Jrue Holiday instead of DeRozan, who until now has been the mock favorite for #9. With Jordan Hill possibly going seventh to Golden State, that would mean none of the favorites for the Bucks' spot would be around.

In this scenario, Milwaukee may have an interesting choice on their hands at #10. DeMar DeRozan was never supposed to get to their pick, but all of a sudden they find him right there for the picking, just a few days after trading away an extremely athletic wing player in Richard Jefferson. Do they swing for the fences on DeRozan’s upside, or will they stay true to their plan of drafting a point guard at all costs and reach for Jeff Teague?
Teague would seem to be a pretty shocking pick--he doesn't exactly scream Scott Skiles favorite--and Gery Woelfel bluntly shot down the possibility of Teague being the pick earlier this week. But both Ford and Givony continue to mention him as being in the mix.
Broussard: Jennings in the mix? No one seems to know where Brandon Jennings might go, but Chris Broussard mentions him as a possiblity for the Bucks:

Golden State likes Jennings at No. 7, but coach Don Nelson told Jennings he'd be a backup to Monta Ellis. Nelson's going to move Stephen Jackson to 2-guard. Jennings is hoping to go somewhere and play right away. Milwaukee's a strong possibility at No. 10. If he falls, Phoenix could nab him at No. 14 or Philadelphia at No. 15.
Wojo: Skiles likes Jennings? Yahoo's Adrian Wojnarowski also says the Bucks could make a move for Jennings:

Milwaukee coach Scott Skiles has become a proponent of Brandon Jennings, a source said and could push to make the point guard the Bucks’ choice at No. 10.
I've been pretty vocal in having no freakin' clue whether Jennings should be in the Bucks' plans, but I will say this--it would making things damn interesting, and I'll conveniently choose to ignore his crap European stats and watch this a million times. Skiles isn't going to want him because of a high school mixtape, so I'm guessing they've seen plenty of substance in his game.
Ford: Bucks prefer to draft a PG and keep CV? From that same page, Ford posits his theory that the Bucks would prefer to use their newfound flexibility to re-sign Charlie Villanueva rather than Ramon Sessions.
This deal gave them some flexibility to re-sign one of their restricted free agents -- either Charlie Villanueva or Ramon Sessions. From what I can gather, the emphasis will be on Villanueva.
Why? The draft has something to do with it. The Bucks have several point guard prospects they like at No. 10. The only big guy they've looked at hard is DeJuan Blair, but that's too high for Blair to go.

I think they'll take Jonny Flynn, Jrue Holiday or Jeff Teague at No. 10 and go into the summer with a solid rebuilding base of talented young players including Andrew Bogut, Joe Alexander and Villanueva. It isn't a championship contender, but it's a start.

It's tough to tell if Ford is just giving his own rationale or if there's some kind of Bucks source behind this, because it kind of goes against the conventional wisdom that I've just assumed to be true at this point--that CV would likely be allowed to walk, possibly to replaced by Ersan Ilyasova. Also keep in mind that drafting a PG could simply be a precursor to trading Luke Ridnour, not letting Sessions walk. That would at least seem to be the logical course of action. Ridnour doesn't have any real value, but with an expiring contract he could be viewed as a possible backup point for a contending team. In his mock, Ford has the Bucks going for Flynn over Teague and Jennings and Ahmad Nivins in the second round.
NBADraft.net: Flynn and Pendergraph. They've also got DeRozan slipping outside the top ten, but Flynn's there too.
JS: Hammond/Skiles explaining their busy day. Apparently the value of yesterday's trades has been lost on some people, so the Bucks braintrust is necessarily trying to soothe the nerves of all the people who had anointed Richard Jefferson their new savior. Heck, even Gery Woelfel seems disenchanted. Skiles is trying to argue it wasn't a salary dump, while Hammond was on WSSP trying to articulate the difference between "financial flexibility" and "roster flexibility." Whatever, this deal had to happen and the Bucks are better off overall for it.

I don't blame the casual fan for reacting with skepticism to yesterday's trades--when you trade a perceived star and don't get one back, people are going to be ticked off. But these are the cold economic realities of the NBA, and the Bucks haven't made things any easier on themselves by taking on too many guys whose play isn't commensurate to their inflated contracts. Much of that falls on Larry Harris, but Hammond also made the decision to keep Michael Redd last summer and RJ at the deadline. Trading either for expiring deals would have expedited the process, but they seem to have gotten greedy last spring and tried to make a run at the playoffs even after Bogut/Redd went down. I can understand the need to put a decent product on the floor, but there's gotta be some consideration for the long-term, and we finally reached the inflection point yesterday.

The bottom line is that anyone who understood the Bucks' cap situation could see a move like this coming for months. And anyone who follows the NBA knows that $15 million wing players don't have much currency right now. The Bucks tried to wait out the market when nothing attractive materialized at the deadline, but the economy still sucks, the tax threshold is still going down and teams simply aren't willing to fork out huge dollars for overpaid wings. Considering that Sessions and Villanueva overshadowed RJ for much of the second half of the season, I'll gladly take my chances trying to re-sign one or both to a reasonable deal (or take Ilyasova as a consolation prize). Even if one walks, the Bucks will have a bunch of expiring deals with which to go fishing for bigger game--Ridnour, Thomas, Johnson, Bowen (if he's not cut), Allen, and Elson (assuming they take their options) add up to $20.96 million in expiring contracts.

While no one is expecting the Bucks to attract superstar free agents anytime soon, expiring deals (this year) and cap space (down the road) allow them the freedom to take advantage of other teams' desperation--Pau Gasol and Rasheed Wallace representing the most extreme examples of big name players traded in their prime for relative peanuts. Unfortunately you can't plan for that kind of opportunity, but you can give yourself a chance to take advantage of them when they arise by acquiring underpriced assets and expiring deals. The Bucks have now been on the business end of financially motivated deals twice and it could happen again soon, but in the long term they're finally positioning themselves to be a buyer rather than seller.

What the RJ/Amir trades mean for the draft, free agency, and beyond

Frank Madden — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 02:12:34 -0000

So now that we're slowly wrapping our minds around the Bucks' big day of wheeling and dealing, what does it all actually mean? We start with the Bucks' current cap situation (above) and work our way forward.

There's enough room to sign Sessions and maybe someone else. If the luxury tax comes in at $71 million (perhaps slightly optimistic), then the Bucks would have nearly $8 million to play with in free agency. Well, not really play with, because that's space under the luxury tax, not space under the salary cap. They'd have Early Bird Rights to sign Sessions and Ilyasova and their MLE in case those guys aren't signed. Similarly, they could re-sign Villanueva using their Bird Rights without having to tap the MLE. That's the assumption in the table above, which also reflects Bowen being cut and owed half his $4 million salary while Kurt Thomas stays with the team (not clear if that will happen). Factoring in the two draft picks the Bucks have and Elson/Allen taking their options, the Bucks would also have 14 guys on the roster even excluding Sessions/Villanueva/Ilyasova. Considering how many expiring deals they now have on the roster, that suggests more trades could be on the way.

Given that Sessions can't be offered more than the MLE (which could go up to about $5.8 million), the Bucks now have plenty of cushion to match any offer sheet. A four or five year deal that balloons in the third season might well get them to blink, but at least they can now credibly state their intent to match offers for Sessions. Until now they haven't done that and might not have been convincing even if they did--stay tuned to see if they change their tune. I'm hoping it does. Meanwhile, I've been going on the assumption that Charlie V was gone regardless of whether the Bucks freed up more space, but every summer I predict Charlie V's departure and it never happens, so I suppose I shouldn't be so quick to judge.

Bringing Ilyasova back to replace Villanueva would appear less likely now than 24 hours ago. Like Sessions, Ilyasova has played two years in the NBA and the Arenas rule applies to him--other teams can only offer him up to the MLE as a starting salary, but the Bucks can match. The Bucks might be able to spread out $7.8 million between Sessions and Ilyasova (especially if Sessions doesn't get a full MLE offer elsewhere), but the Bucks also wouldn't need Ilyasova as much now that they've got Johnson and Thomas (if he's not bought out). Still, neither of those guys can spread the floor like Ersan, so he could still bring something to the table.

This probably doesn't change the draft strategy. OK, so that statement implies we actually know what the draft strategy is, which we might not. But on the surface it certainly seems like the Bucks would be happy to take Jordan Hill if he falls (looking less likely), with point guards Jonny Flynn, Jrue Holiday, and maybe Brandon Jennings right there as well. Unless something strange happens, at least a couple of those guys will be available at 10, and one of the PGs is certain to be around. So if the Bucks really want to pick a PG, they can have one. DeJuan Blair and Earl Clark will also be available, but no one seems to think those guys are in the mix, unless they trade down (like for instance by swapping 10 for the Bulls' 16th and 26th picks). They could also try to trade up to get Hill, but with Washington trading their pick to Minnesota earlier today, the obvious way to do that is now no longer an option.

Picking a point would give them insurance against losing Sessions, but more practically would also pave the way for a trade of Luke Ridnour. As a mediocre player on an expiring deal, Ridnour will be getting shopped hard no matter what the Bucks do, but taking a point in the draft and freeing up the cash to re-sign Sessions makes it even easier.

John Hammond alluded the other day to also possibly taking a wing if that player was BPA, and with Jefferson gone a wing player would actually be somewhat useful in the short-term as well. Still, the Bucks haven't worked out DeMar DeRozan and Tyreke Evans, and neither guy figures to be around at 10 anyway. Just like the Bucks picked Joe Alexander and Luc Mbah a Moute despite the RJ draft day acquisition a year ago, I'd expect the Bucks will go with the BPA and worry about their roster later.

What gives among the bigs? While it's not going to scare anyone, the Bucks' frontcourt added a fair bit of depth with the acquisitions of Johnson and Thomas--though for completely opposite reasons. Johnson is a human pogo stick who shot 60% last year on athleticism alone, and even in a down year rebounding the ball he was above-average for a PF (15.1 rebound rate). Defensively, he immediately becomes the Bucks' best shotblocker (1 bpg in only 15 mpg) but he also fouls at a ridiculous rate--2.8 pfs in only 14.7 mpg last year. Not even Dan Gadzuric was that bad. Despite that, Johnson's defensive on/off splits were rather exceptional: the Pistons allowed 9.0 fewer ppg while he was on the court than off it. At 36, Thomas is all savvy and experience, not shooting much anymore but capable of sticking a mid-range jumper while defending both frontcourt positions. I'd easily take him over Gadzuric, Elson, and Allen, though that isn't saying much. Both Allen and Elson are expected to pick up their player options for next year, but I'll hold out a tiny bit of hope that acquiring Johnson and Thomas could scare them into looking for PT elsewhere.

Who's at three? Then you have the small forward position, which all of a sudden is wide open for Luc Mbah a Moute and Joe Alexander to grab meaningful minutes. A couple national reports I've seen have alluded to Alexander now having the chance to start, but it would seem like Mbah a Moute would be the obvious choice for now. The only problem? Mbah a Moute doesn't shoot threes, and neither does Sessions or any of the true PFs on the current roster. That means a hypothetical lineup of, say, Sessions/Redd/LRMaM/Johnson/Bogut would have only one player capable of hitting a three point shot, which I don't see as a sustainable way of playing in the NBA. That would be a clear benefit of signing Ilyasova (or even CV), since he can actually be a perimeter threat at the 4.

The summer of 2010 should be drama-free. You know how we've spent the past few months moping about the possibility of losing two affordable young players, all because we've got two good but overpaid wings nearing the age of 30? Well, we probably would have been in the same boat next summer, banging our heads against the wall about Dan Gadzuric making $7 million a year and forcing us to dump good players for nothing to avoid the tax.

Good news! As you can see in the above table, the fact that all the players acquired today have expiring deals means that the Bucks are now in very nice shape for 2010. And by "very nice" I mean "not awful." It's possible the Bucks could actually have a decent chunk of cap space if they were to deal Redd for expiring deals before the deadline, but for now let's celebrate the fact that they at least shouldn't have any problem staying under the tax. That could of course change if they parlay some of their expiring deals into players with longer-term contracts, but let's cross that bridge when we come to it, OK?

What others are saying about the RJ/Amir Johnson trades

Frank Madden — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 01:44:40 -0000

OK, deep breaths everybody. First off, I've given you my endorsement of the RJ trade and Amir Johnson acqusition, so let's check out some reaction from around the interwebs:

Ford: It's all financial for the Bucks. Chad Ford broke the RJ trade earlier today, so we'll start with him. It's always interesting reading the national media because I always forget that most of the world doesn't realize how much we've all been agonizing about the Bucks' luxury tax hell these past few months. Also, Ramon Sessions is still a good litmus test for how much someone actually knows about the Bucks--if you think his name is pronounced "Ra-MOAN" then you clearly haven't watched the Bucks much in the last year or so. We still love you, Chad.
Dwyer: Bucks still trying to figure out what they're trying to do. Kelly Dwyer provides a good dose of reality--that this deal only makes sense in the context of becoming more serious about rebuilding. But it's all relative. I've been so depressed about the Bucks' situation the past few months that this deal has been a huge sigh of relief, but also it's true that the Bucks are mostly just cleaning up their own mess.

It's a lopsided deal, talent-wise, even taking into consideration the way people tend to overrate Jefferson. But it's a necessary deal, in Milwaukee's eyes, as Jefferson is due over $29 million over the next two seasons, on a team with little upside and no real reason to pay a luxury like Jefferson to stick around.
Watson: Johnson's run in Detroit finally over. I had the pleasure of hanging out with FanHouse writer and Detroit Bad Boys founder Matt Watson last year in Vegas, which taught me two things: Matt's an awesome dude and 2) Matt loves Amir Johnson. Granted, Johnson's 08/09 season was a major letdown, but Matt hasn't given up on him--which makes me feel even better about this deal:

Despite having four years under his belt, Johnson's ceiling is still unknown; he played only 11 games combined his first two years and spent the next two on a short leash with Flip Saunders and Michael Curry, largely due to foul trouble. When he's on the court, though, he's shown an uncanny ability to block shots, get to loose balls and quite simply make things happen.

He's one of the most athletic players in the league, and despite his up-and-down tenure in Detroit, he's young enough to carve out a successful career. In the short-term, his presence also gives Hammond a backup plan in case the Bucks are unable to re-sign restricted free agent Charlie Villanueva, who's certainly more polished offensively but prefers to play on the perimeter.
Hollinger: Everyone wins. John Hollinger writes that the Bucks are effectively trading RJ for CV and Sessions, which makes sense but was probably avoidable. I don't think the Bucks really want to bring back CV anyway for what it's worth, and the Johnson deal (which hadn't happened when Hollinger wrote his article) lends some support to that. Note that the cap number he cites was before the Johnson deal sliced off $1.76 million.

With roughly $9.4 million in wiggle room now available under the luxury tax line, the Bucks are in a much better position to defend against offers to Villanueva and Sessions. Even if re-signing both puts the Bucks slightly over the tax line, they'll have until the trade deadline to strip the extra dollars from the payroll and could easily shed Charlie Bell or Malik Allen at that point to get back under. The Bucks can also get further under the tax line by trading the 10th overall pick in Thursday's draft.
Bucks Diary: Ty says it was a move that had to be made, citing RJ's below average +/-.
Bucksketball.com: Bucks in good hands. First off, big congrats to Jeremy for joining the TrueHoop network! As you'd expect of an excellent Bucks blogger, he's down with the John Hammond's plan.

I’m not John Hammond, so I don’t know how things will play out. But if I were a betting man, I’d bet Ramon Sessions is wearing green and red next year. On top of that, I don’t think this impacts the Bucks draft that much. This trade shouts out "WE’RE IN REBUILDING MODE." Which is fine, because Larry Harris used to shout out "I KNOW WE’RE NOT VERY GOOD BUT I’M GOING TO TELL YOU WE ARE AND KEEP WASTING MONEY." Now we know where things stand. When teams are in rebuilding mode they need to acquire assets before needs. If the best player available is a point guard, then the Bucks should take the point guard. They could play him and Sessions together or work out another deal where they give up whoever this draft pick is to a team willing to take on Michael Redd’s contract. Cleveland? Portland? I don’t know.

Slow News Day: Oberto traded immediately to Detroit for Amir Johnson

Frank Madden — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 00:58:54 -0000

It's a shame I had to be at a conference today, because I picked the wrong day to be away from the internet. Just when I had kind of caught up with my post praising the Jefferson deal, John Hammond spun around and traded Fabricio Oberto--or more accurately, his only half-guaranteed $3.8 million contract--to the Pistons for perennial prospect Amir Johnson. Johnson only turned 22 a month ago and has just one year left on his deal at $3.66 million, so he's a low risk acquisition who can provide athleticism (and still some potential) at both big spots. He was always very productive in his first three seasons for the Pistons, but he dropped off this year as he struggled to get minutes under Michael Curry. That's obviously not a good sign, but John Hammond was with the Pistons when they drafted him and probably still has some hope for him. The only downside from a Bucks perspective is that having Johnson rather than cutting Oberto cuts out $1.76 million of the cap savings provided by the Jefferson deal.

Still, the Bucks will end the day with significantly more financial flexibility than they started, and that's why Bucks fans should be feeling much better about where their team is. While he's still a solid player, Jefferson was owed $14.2 million this season and $15.2 million next year, numbers that just didn't make sense anymore. The Bucks can now save up to $4.74 million this year (if they cut Bruce Bowen) and the full $15.2 million next year since all of the acquired players' contracts are expiring. And that's all assuming that Kurt Thomas isn't bought out, which could cut another million or two. Though Johnson provides some additional depth up front, I'd be happy to keep Thomas and his $3.8 million salary--he's a smart defender of both big positions and has been an excellent rebounder (17.2 rebound rate last year) despite the fact that he's turning 37 in October.

As for Bowen, there's no sense in cutting him while his contract is still only partially guaranteed, though at this point I'm guessing he gets cut to free up more dollars under the luxury tax. It sounds like his deal might not become guaranteed until August 1, which would allow the Bucks to keep him on the roster for the next month in case they want to trade him for another asset (or just keep him period, though I really doubt that). The only tricky part is that Bowen can't be traded in a deal that aggregates his salary with other players for two months. In other words, you couldn't trade Bowen's $4 million salary along with a $6.5 million salary (say, Luke Ridnour) for a $10.5 million player. You'd have to be able to break the trade down into pieces such that Bowen was being traded straight up for someone else. The same was true of Oberto, which is why the trade straight up for Johnson worked.