In my opinion, Kevin O'Connor is now on the clock. Between now and the trade deadline (March 15th), something needs to give.

At this point, with the schedule starting to even out (and it still hasn't yet), I think even the most homer Jazz fans are starting to see that this Jazz team is (at best) a .500 team. And it won't get any better this year or next.

Without any changes, next years rotation will look just like this team's rotation. Most likely the only the exception will maybe be Burks getting Howards minutes. But just like we are seeing with Hayward, it will be a tough learning curve for Burks without getting many meaningful minutes as a rookie. Our young bigs will still be averaging under 20 min. Hayward will improve, but Bell will get slower. I think CJ is who he is (a solid backup). Whatever rookie(s) we pick up will be getting Burks' (lack of) minutes. And the win total will be about the same. And, all of this is assuming Corbin is able to maintain the level of motivation that he has thus far been able to produce.

The year after next will start the rebuilding process. Two years late.

Right now the PG position is the only position that is performing below average (considering all 48 minutes). It is performing well below average. Earl is a great backup, but Harris is maybe the 28th or 29th best starting PG in the league. He should be a backup the rest of his career. But putting Earl in as the starter wouldn't change anything. He can't play that effective for more than 20-24 min/game, and that is what he is playing.

The answer is obvious. We need to trade for a PG. Easier said than done, I know, but if it isn't we are looking at (at least) another 1.5 seasons of a slightly below mediocre team.

So...... I think we will learn a lot about how good (or not) KOC and the front office is on this trade deadline. They have to know that there isn't a great chance of drafting a franchise PG between now and then. They have to know that even if we get Golden State's pick this year (I think unlikely), the best available player at that spot (playing the percentages) is going to be a PF.

We are deep in the front-court, with two #3 picks showing potential but getting slim minutes. Everyone knows this. I know KOC is probably playing the waiting game, as is his m.o.. Wait and see what other teams are doing. Be patient looking for a good, safe play. But now is the time. The offers will be worse by next year.

The Jazz either find a way to turn Millsap or Jefferson (and what ever draft picks needed) into a quality starting PG, or lets get use to being the 10th best team in the West for the next few years.

I love the Eurobasket tournament.  Absolutely.  It is my third favorite basketball sporting event, right behind the NBA Playoffs and the World Championships / Olympics.  I prefer it to the NCAA tournament by a good margin.  The World Championships and the Eurobasket both have the "one game elimination" intensity of the NCAA tournament but with the bonus that the teams actually know how to play.  That statement seems to be getting truer and truer each year in the NCAAs.   One of my favorite sports moment (as a fan) came when Russia won four years ago.  A true upset.  As a big AK fan, it was just a great victory.

This year, besides following Russia, I have also watched all of Turkey's games.  Intrigued by Enes Kanter of course.  So I thought I would my humble assessment of his play here.  The abstract of it is this: He is ready to contribute.  Now.  Because of that, I thought I would kill some time by throwing out three trades that could eliminate the jam the Jazz have at the PF/C.

Kanter

The standard, pre-draft statements from pundits concerning Kanter was something like this: "High ceiling, but a will take a few years to develop".  That was just a stock answer, because no one really knew.  Personally, from what I have seen, that statement is completely backwards.   I don't think Kanter has a huge ceiling.  But it seems almost certain he will be a good-to-very good player.  And he will be there soon.

Positives:  

1) Kanter is very strong.  He is consistently the strongest player on the court.  He is only going to get stronger.  

2) Kanter has great footwork and a lot of moves in the post.  At this level, he is basically unstoppable from the left post.  From the right post he needs another move.  But he can shoot a turnaround over either shoulder out to 10 ft.  He has a great right hand jump hook.  And an awesome up-and-under pump fake from either side.  

3) Kanter has a great release.  He has only shot a few jumpers, but he looks good.  Work with Okur on his pick-and-pop will really help.  Plus he is a good fee-throw shooter.  He will be 75%+ for his career.  

4) Kanter has shown a great motor.  He isn't fast by any stretch of the imagination, but he never stops on offense or defense.  

5) Kanter is a good defender.  Not a shot blocker, but, yes, he is a good defender.  He has done a great job keeping his man in front of him.  And he has been guarding some quick players too, like Luol Dung. He gets lost sometimes on pick and rolls, but it is usually because he overplays it (e.g. he is too eager).  So that is something that can be fixed I think.

Neutral:

1)  Rebounding has been average.  I thought it would be better.  Partly this has to do with something I will mention in the negatives.

2) His screens.  He is not setting good screens, but no player on Turkey does.   Relative to NBA standards that is.  Turkey basically has their bigs set shadow screens and the guards definitely don't rub their defenders off on them.  They dance around about four feet behind the screen.  Not at all NBA style, so it is hard to assess Kanter here.  He is willing though.

Negatives:

1) Kanter, from an "upside" prospective has one major flaw.  He has no explosion from a standstill.  None.  This is what is holding him back from being a great rebounder.  If he is moving, he can get up in the air and haul in some great rebounds.  From a stand-still, he is easily out jumped.  His lack of explosiveness is what is going to keep him from being a "first option" scorer in the NBA.  He will demand a double team in the post.  He is going to be unstoppable one-on-one.  But (just like Big Al), teams will be able to send a late double team.  That is, they can wait for him to start his move, then send a help defender late, because the action unfolds so slowly.  Compare this to someone like Amare Stoudamire.  If you don't send a double team immediately, Stoudamire is so explosive he will beat the help defender to the rim (and finishes powerfully).  This is what makes Favors' upside so high; he has that explosiveness.

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Turkey is under-using Kanter.  Understandable, since he is a new addition, and the players aren't used to him.  But it is obvious that he is a fairly polished, refined player.  Now.  And he has an NBA body.  Now.  He is ready to contribute.  Now.  Which means the Jazz have a bigger jam at the PF/C then we thought.  Which brings us to the last thing I thought I would throw out for my amusement:  Three ways to lessen that jam.  One way to improve the team by moving each of three different players:

Three Trade Scenarios:

Millsap to Washington for Chris Singleton:  Simple, we have a big man jam, they have a SF jam.  Washington has cap-room and their projected strategy is  to take on veteran or two with short contracts.  Gives us a young, defensive oriented SF and some payroll relief.   Everyone wins

Jefferson and a future #1 to Houston for Kyle Lowry:  Don't think this is a one sided trade for them.  This is what it would take.  Lowry might be their best player.  And Houston is smart.  They don't make bad trades.  Not even when they are in desperate need.  They went all last season starting a 6-6 center and did not give in to a bad trade.  But for the Jazz, it would be be worth it.  Lowry would be the starting PG for the next 8-10 years.  Harris could be a combo-guard off the bench for a couple years.  The Jazz would save a good amount of money.  Eventually we would start Lowry, Burks, Hayward, Kanter, and Favors with Millsap as a super-sub.  That is a team I could believe in.

Kanter and Harris to Phoenix for Nash and a future #1:  This would depend on Nash signing an extension.  This is about the only scenario I can think of where Kanter would be moved.  Why not?  And for the record, there is no scenario where Favors gets moved.

Well, it has been a slow off-season.  Not much to discuss here on SLCDunk.  So this is what happens.  I write a short novel of a fanpost!

The local SLC debate of Millsap vs. Jefferson seems to rage on lately, just as the debate of Millsap vs. Boozer raged in previous years.  With the emergence of Favors and the addition of Kanter, it is nearly inevitable that one or both of Millsap or Jefferson will be moved to the bench or traded off the team.    And so the debate of the merits and deficiencies of both of these players rages in the basketball vacuum that is this off-season.

But lately I have been wondering this:  Does the memory of Karl Malone affect how we view Millsap and Jefferson, and how we viewed Boozer?  I am wondering if there is a simple spit:  the views of those of us old enough to remember Malone's playing days well, and those young'ens that don't.  So I would like to end this post with a poll related to that question.  But before I get to that, let me talk about intimidation.  Or more accurately...

Fearlessness... The Lack of Intimidation

I believe that one of the most important characteristics of a competitive athlete that just does not show up on any stat sheet is the lack of intimidation.  Even at the professional level, it is easy to see that many, if not most players can be intimidated.   Intimidated by opposing crowds.  Intimidated by pressure.  Intimidated by superior athletes.   Intimidated by the moment.  

We couldn't have gotten a better case study of this then the last finals.   In the end, the difference was that the Mavs were not intimidated by the moment.  The Heat were.    Even having a bad shooting night, being swarmed by what might be the most athletic team ever, Dirk was fearless in the clutch.  He was a cold-hearted killer.  Lebron and Bosh looked like deer in the headlights.   Wade was rattled.  And so the series was handily (amazingly handily) won by the Mavs.

And that is where I wonder if our memory of Malone affects how we are viewing our big men today.  For those of us who can remember Malone, one thing we can say was that the man was fearless.  Fearless on the road.  Fearless driving into the paint.  Fearless of playing hurt.  Fearless of failure.  Fearless.  He might not have always been clutch.... being fearless and clutch, well that was Stockton... but Malone was fearless.  And that meant everything to Jazz fans.  The best analogy for you younger fans is that of is probably to compare him to DWill.  DWill, in his Jazz days, was fearless.  Not always clutch.  We forgave all those times DWills clanked 20 foot jumpers at the end of games, because he did hit a few, but more so, because he wasn't intimidated by the moment.  And fans respond to that.

So part of the reason some of us "old-timers" never got on the Boozer bandwagon, I am thinking, is because we remembered a fearless power forward, and the one thing Boozer never was,  was fearless.  Boozer was intimidated by bigger players (Garnett, Pau, etc).  Intimidated of playing hurt.  Intimidated by the moment.

And that is what I think might be the core of the debate between Millsap and Jefferson today.  I just can't watch Jefferson and think he is fearless.  Not  when he only plays his best when the game is 15pts one way or the other.  Not when he say's things like "That's why I don't like to dunk in traffic".    Not when he looks like a deer in the headlights at the end of games.

And that is why maybe some of us value Millsap more than his stats say we should.  Because Millsap is fearless.   The higher the pressure of the moment, the better Millsap seems to shoot.  The more likely he is to come up with a big block.  The more fearless he seems.  And that is what we want in a "Power" forward.  

Millsap is too small to play 35-40 minutes at the PF position.  We know that now.    And I think we all started to see that Favors has that sense of fearlessness about him.  (Why shoot an open 15 footer when I can hammer dunk over three-players?  Who cares if I end up on my back?)  That's the similarity I see between Favors and (the young) Malone.  So maybe Millsap slides to the 3.  Maybe he comes of the bench.   I am pretty sure Millsap will be on the floor at the end of games one way or another.   And personally, I hope that is the case of a lot of years to come.

Jefferson?  He is a good player.  If there is no pressure.  If he is not needed to lead the team in a close game. If he doesn't need to  lead the team in the playoff hunt.   OK, so maybe he just needs to be in a position where he isn't leading.  Should he still start?  Should he be traded?  I personally think he could excel being a team's third big.  He would have a lot of value producing outside of the biggest pressure moments.  If he can't handle that, then trade him.  (Either way, don't feel bad for him.. he is still a personable, nice, very rich young man... he will be OK).

Poll: Does the the memory of Malone affect the assessment of Jefferson?

Going into tomorrow's draft lottery, I thought I would give a bit of a run down of the draft prospects from a little different perspective.  I will list them in the categories as I see them.  It is not a ranking of where I think they will go in the draft.  Nor is it a draft board, as I am not listing them as I rank them, except they are in order of how I would rank them in each category.

I am far from a professional scout.  During the last couple months I have tried to watch the top prospects during the NCAA (and NIT) tournament and some Euro league.  And then I am relying heavily on DraftExpress.com and NBADraft.net heavily for information.

I am interested in what other fan's opinions are about where prospects fall in these categories.

Very Good Chance at Becoming an All-Star

In this draft it doesn't seem as if we have any prospects sitting in the Definitely a Franchise Altering Talent category, so this is the highest category here.  It has two players:  Irving and Williams.  I have high confidence in both of these players to become All-Stars.  If they Jazz have a chance at either of these two, via trading other picks, or luck, they better take them and quick. 

 Irving doesn't have jaw-dropping speed or jumping, but he might be in the top-ten players in the league as far as passing ability from day one.  That is saying something, and it is special.

William's has that "look".  He believes he is the best player on the court at all times, and he plays like it.  Relative to context, he threw down one of the most amazing dunks I have seen when he willed himself to dunk two handed over three players in the second half against UConn.  You can't teach heart, and he has it.

The biggest question for Irving and Williams might be how dedicated are they going to be on the defensive end.  Or will their interest only be peaked on one side of the court.  Its the difference between players like Kobe and Carmelo. 

Could be All-Stars.  Could Flop.

I think this is where this draft is lacking.  Usually there are about ten players who, if they can just overcome one thing or another, could be really good.  But if they don't, they might not have a long career.   For example Hayward from last year.  Everyone knew he had the tools, but would he become strong enough to play and not be blown away in the wind?  

Usually there are more flops then stars here, but it always seems there are a good number of players in this category.  This year I think there are only three.   But with the Jazz's first pick, I think they have to roll the dice with one of these guys if they have a chance.

Kanter probably doesn't have the running/jumping ability to dominate.  In fact, that could make him nothing but big body to take fouls against Dwight Howard.  On the other hand, if he shows he can at least hang with more atheletic players he has everything else in place to become a fringe All-Star every year.  He understands the game, he has amazing skills for his size, and he is big and strong.

Burks is interesting.  I actually watched NIT games just to see him play.  For being a volume scorer, watching him play one thing stands out:  he might have the second best court vision in the draft behind Irving.  He is like AK in that regard.  He really see's the court well.  And he is unselfish.  For being a "gunner" he probably should have been taking more shots considering the talent level of his teammates.  But he seems very willing to make the right play.  I am not concerned with his poor jump shot percentages because his form is good an pure.  I actually think he will show himself to be a good spot up shooter in the NBA.   His problem, as far as I could see, was that he never, ever, got set up for open jumpers.  They were always off the dribble.  He has a great handle as well and is by far the best rebounding SG in the draft (again, he reads the play and times rebounds very well).

His down side?  He scarily sometimes seems to be drifting... not a high motor from what I have seen.  If he show a desire once in the NBA he will be great, if not he will be someone who's name none of us will remember in five years.

In contrast to Burks, Brandon Knight has a very high motor.  He is running full speed from tip-off to the final whistle.  And his full speed is fast.  Very fast.  He is fearless, smart, and you can tell he wants to win badly.   He has a great handle, and deep range on his jumper.  And he is a relentless defender.  Sounds great.  Except he is a point guard and what I left out is .... well... he can't pass very well.  I hate to say it, because I loved watching him compete, but I never once (in two games) saw him make a pass where I said to myself, "wow, nice pass".  In fact, I rarely said to myself  "That was a pass".  Because he doesn't pass much.  Maybe my sample size was small, maybe it was the offense.  And he is young and reportedly a willing learner.  If he can learn to facilitate, the sky is the limit.  If not, well, I really like watching Ronnie Price play his 5 minutes a game too.

Physically Outstanding Defenders

These are the guys who probably never be stars, but are something special physically, high-motor guys, who will be in the league a long time because they will, at the least, be good defenders.  If the Jazz could get any of these guys at #12 I would be ecstatic.  And if none of the other prospects I've mentioned are available, with there first pick.  Actually I would think about packaging our #12 with one of our incumbents to move up to get one of a couple of these guys. 

Vesely might have a bit of a boom or bust in him.  But I doubt he will ever be a star.  You don't seem many clumsy stars, and he looks like he might be a little of that.  From highlights that seems to be why he is such a poor rebounder for his size.  Can't grab the ball well.  On the other hand, he is 6'11 and can dunk from 30 feet away.  And he supposedly has a never-ending motor.   And he can spot up for the J.  So he might be the first D&J 6'11 player in the league.  I would take that.

I think most know Biyombo's story by now.  Has only been playing a few years.  6'9 with a 9'6 wingspan.  He just blocked a shot in my driveway as I was shooting around.  Then stared me down as I was going inside.  Seems like a very intelligent kid who might have a bit of the "sports crazy'.  Kind of like his hero Garnett.  Kind of like the opposite of Boozer and Big Al.  Kind of what I would like to see the Jazz.

Kawhi Leonard is a bit of a sleeper in the draft.  Will be a lock-down wing almost assuredly.  If he gets a can get his offensive game together, he could easily be the third best player on most teams.

 Valanciounus has one big question:  Will he ever weigh more than the ball boy?  If so, he is tall and long with boundless energy (every highlight I ever see with him ends with him sprinting full speed the other direction, no matter what the play happed to be   All of them.  Watch.)  And, unlike most big men, he could be in the game late because he is a really, really good free-throw shooter.  That all counts for a lot.  But can he win a wrestling match with the ball-boy?

Great Offensive Players Who Hate Defense, Who I Do not Want the Jazz to Draft Because the Team is Bad Enough on Defense Anyways and I am Sick of It.

I never want the Jazz to draft these players.  Or sign them to 60 million dollar deals.  Sometime's it happens.  I hope not in this draft.

The Jimmer, and the Lithuanian Jimmer (Motiejunus).    They can shoot, they can drive, they can pass, they use both hands, they have a handle.  They have no idea what else there is left to do.  So they will kind of jog around and avoid all contact until their team has the ball again.   I hate these kinds of players.   

College Players Who Might be Good, But Will Probably be Role-Players if Anything

This is pretty much the rest of the draft pool, highlighted by Kemba and the Morris brothers.  Probably at  couple surprises as always, but at this point, players will be drafted to fit a team.  And for once, the Jazz don't have to worry about this pool.  I hope they do from next year on though.

Actually, the title of the post is really:

What do you think the Jazz should do?  What do you think the Jazz actually will do?  I would like to know everyone's opinions on what moves the Jazz's front office should and will make in the upcoming off-season and into next year.

I know everybody alludes to their opinions on these matters, via comments, pretty much continuously.  At least I know I do!  However, I would like to have, in one spot, everyone's opinion on these matters.  The interesting part will be looking back sometime next year and seeing who actually was on the money about what the Jazz will do.   The nice thing about this site is that even though there is a diverse range of opinions, there are a lot of well thought out opinions... even those I don't agree with!

Here is the only loose rule:  try to stay away from talking about who specifically the Jazz should draft.  We can talk about that after the lottery, and I don't want this to turn into a semi-mock draft.

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So here is the fun part (for me), dear readers, MY opinions:

- The Jazz should and will establish that the only two untouchables on the Jazz are Gordo and Favors.  That's it.   Everyone else can and will be shopped.

- The Jazz should consider every other player on the roster is available for draft picks.  Here is my logic.  

As Bill Simmons points out occasionally, the reality is that NBA teams can afford to pay three players big money ($10 mill+, three players mid-money (around $6-8 mill) and every one else on the roster has to split what is left.  Basically all the really good teams are built around three-big money guys that are really good.  Seems simple, but it is easy to pay a not so great player with big stats, big money.  And then you can't afford a really good player.  You might get lucky and get someone who is on a rookie contract, but then they will bolt if you can't afford them.  You have to pick your three wisely and lock them up (see Kobe, Pau, Oden.... see Duncan, Parker, Ginobilli...  see Allen, Pierce, Garnett) etc.   There are exceptions, but that is the rule.  The real trick is not to pay someone the big money unless they are one of those three.  You need other good players, but you need them at the more affordable $7 mill range.  And then you need players who are productive bench players who are on rookie contracts, or D-league types.

So here is the thing, I think Gordo and Favors could be two of the three main guys.  I really do.  I don't think anyone else on the roster can be.  I think Millsap, Al, and Harris all belong in that "next three" category.  The only way the Jazz will be able to get that third great player, realistically, is through the draft.  Therefore, I think every other player should be considered as assets to find more ways to get the last main piece through the draft.  Then you worry about role players.  And the higher the pick the better.  Therefore....

- I think the Jazz should trade Big Al for a draft pick.  Straight up.  Seriously, if Toronto or Cleveland (who I think could absorb his salary would trade him for the 5th or 8th pick respectively we do it.  Big Al isn't worth big money, and we won't be able to keep him for mid money in two years.  Sell high now.  In fact, in all honesty, I would trade Al and next year's Golden State pick for a chance to get into the top four picks.   I don't think the Jazz will do this though.

- I think the Jazz will try to flip Big Al for a young prospect and monetary savings.  I think Big Al for Nick Young will be discussed.   At the latest,  I think he will get traded, at the latest,  during next year's season. 

- I think the Jazz should not value next year's Golden State pick higher than any pick #10 or less in this years draft.  I don't see Golden State getting worse. 

- I think the Jazz should not resign AK for even the mid-level.  Sorry.  He is falling apart and not worth it.  And I am a huge fan.  Also, I don't think the Jazz will.  Here is a strange prediction, but I would not be surprised if AK retires from professional ball.  Seriously.  I could see him playing for the Russian national team only, and spending more time on the Kirilenko foundation.  He is really rich now, his is dealing with a scary nerve injury, and I could see that happening.  

- I think the Jazz should not and will not worry about Corbin's record this year at all.  I think fans will though. 

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So there we are.  I am all for pushing hard to find another main piece through the draft.   Whether or not the Jazz go this way, I think there is going to be a much larger overhaul then most are expecting.

And how about you?