I'll try to make this short (Hehe, that's my Tim Kawakami impression!), but this crappy, nationally ignored Nuggs-Dubs game really had it all: It emblematic'd the metaphorical of epitomizing it up. Or, as sportswriters lazily shovel say, it summed up the Warriors season.

• The snatching of defeat from the splash whiskers of victory (I'm trying to poke fun at Nellie in vague, non libelous ways).

I watched the game with my friend and we came to the collective halftime conclusion that Nellie would get scared in the fourth quarter, then turn to empirically discredited small ball.  Our crystal ball also said this panic attack would lose the Warriors another close game. Guess we're psychic. Or sentient.

• Embarrassment for Warriors management
  

On the heels of the Blazers, the Nuggets represent another injury-rocked team that can overcome adversity.

• An easy way to shift the blame

In real time, it looked like Monta landed on Earl's butt. In slow-mo, he merely grazed it. In retrospect, it was a stupid thing for Ellis to do. Currently, it's funny to say 'Monta grazed Earl's ass.'  I loved how Bob Fitzgerald turned into Howard Beale when it happened, considering how sub-marine the stakes were.  If anything,this puts GSW one step closer towards getting a soon-to-disgruntled high lottery pick.

• Dark Nellie comedy

This was sad, inexcusable, and incomprehensible. In the third quarter Ronny Turiaf injured his ankle,  went to the training room, and bravely reentered the game.  He's a professional, someone who would give full effort no matter the circumstances.  But Nellie should have stopped him.  Holy sh**, this  game was not the time for Turiaf torture porn.  I felt like this was the most under talked about subplot in Twitterland--possibly because we've become immune to Nellie's insanity.  Ronny Turiaf limped up and down the court while visibly grimacing. His rotations weren't slow so much as they weren't there.  As Turiaf trudged on possession switches, he looked like an old, dying, dog dragging his body towards a final resting spot.  The absence of a fifth man was a big factor in the quarter, most noticeably felt when JR Smith waltzed towards an easy dunk.

Even when healthy Turiaf's a 'meh' rebounder.  On a bad wheel, he could only receive rebounds--not get them.  Of course he nearly played the whole fourth quarter alongside an awful rebounding lineup.  Of course we lost.

• Bizarre Treatment of Anthony Randolph

No game would be complete without it.  Randolph played badly in the first half, but was pretty much left to his own devices.  I don't have an issue with keeping the kid on the court, even through mistakes.  What didn't make sense was Nellie's benching of Randolph after some inspired second half play.  Or, maybe it would have made sense if Randolph weren't the only healthy big at that point (I'm not counting Chris Hunter, he's D-Leaguer till proven otherwise). It's as though Don Nelson's trying to get Anthony Randolph to suck through Pavlovian conditioning.  Who knew the old man could find such creative outlets for his whimsy?

• Monta Ellis laughing at the end

Can't blame the guy. Can't do it. Just can't.

via images.fanfeedr.com

The meta conversations of Warriors fans and pundits continue.  I’m responding to the Worriers blog semi-responding to Tim Kawakami’s blog.  Eventually we’ll all have solved the Warriors problems, only to have Cohan sell the team to Calgary.  The topic is Monta’s crappy +/- and its attributions. Feel free to follow it on my site/twitter as well.  

I come here not to bury Monta Ellis, but instead to praise his past productivity.  Let’s go back a short hop temporally and a long leap mentally. Let’s see what Monta accomplished in 2007-2008 for the best Warriors team of the last decade:

Net +4.3

With Monta on the floor, the 48 win Warriors were a marginally better defensive team (-.8), and an improved offensive squad (+3.5).   While Ellis hurt them in rebounding, he more than made up for it with great scoring efficiency.  His 58% TS (stands for ‘True Shooting’, not ‘Tough Sh**, we’re fining you 3 millie for a moped crash) from that year dwarfs his modern middling-to-mediocre 52.5%.  On the defensive end, he acquitted himself decently for a young player, usually drawing assignments on guys who were actually his size.  

Oh, and then there’s the matter of turnovers.  Question: What would Monta’s 07-08 per game turnovers, multiplied by two be?  Answer: Not as much as his current per game TO amount (2.1 to 4.3).  Question: Is that the nerdiest thing you've ever asked yourself? Answer: Sadly, no.  Anyway, I’m not even going to reference the pace/minute adjusted stats because the 4.3 pretty much tells the story.  Adjusting for minutes is like putting a paint job on a totaled moped.   

I’m not really of that fluffy Ric Bucher School of ‘this guy makes that guy better.’ I’ve tended to believe that players only marginally overlap (unless you play with Iverson).  But dammit if it doesn’t seem Monta misses Baron Davis.   Let’s move away from stats for a second and conjure up an old moving picture of Baron dribbling a few feet above the key.  Davis drives and this pulls the defense a few paces towards him.  After two dribbles he whips the ball towards Ellis, who’s crouching on the three point line (at the point that’s equidistant from top-of-the-key and the baseline).  As Monta’s defender moves towards the action, Ellis simply blows past him in the opposite direction. Simple, effective, and thinking about it nearly makes me cry. Off the ball is where Ellis is meant to play.

As I recover from that nostalgia I’ll add that Baron could guard twos, allowing Monta to matchup on ones (Ya, ya, ya, we’ve heard that a million times). Baron may not be Monta’s basketball soul mate-the one player meant for Ellis to play with.  I loved BDiddy, but he was never close to All-NBA material and there are other big point guards in the sea.  Could I interest you in nearly over-the-hill types like Andre Miller and Jason Kidd?  Maybe we can tank and snag my guy Evan Turner, or even luck out with the Great Wall of John? I’m not sure what the solution is, but I believe we’re wasting a good player’s prime every game the problem goes unsolved.

After the last game, Ellis said, 'I can't do it by myself. I can't win a game by myself.'  He's right about that, but perhaps he shouldn't be trying to win it by himself.  Perhaps he should be reaping the benefits of a new facilitator, even a mediocre one. With Ellis dribbling out the clock, we're more likely to see a high-speed turnover than a lethal layup. 

(Before this post begins, I want to say 'Sorry, I'm not trying to spam the site, I just get bored and write stuff sometimes.')

Or should I say 'joie de Turiaf'? I know that Turiaf's joie de vivre is a contagious force, an irrepressible energy that somehow transforms the way I watch televised basketball.  Years ago, I met a Philly guy who lectured me on how much he loved Turiaf.  This dude was a casual NBA fan with no real attachment to the Lakers (Ronny's squad back then), yet he felt compelled to drunkenly express his bizarre Turiaf love (Nah, nah, ya don' undah-stand... He's a BEAST...a BEAST...I LOVE him). I thought it was odd at the time, but I get it now.

And here's where it gets a little messy.  Because, well, I'm not sure where to separate Turiaf the player from Turiaf the lovable force of nature.  For the purposes of clarity I'm chucking metrics and win percentages out the window.  Hell, Turiaf competes for playing time with two of the most productive (in my opinion) Warriors and I still love the guy.  I know he's merely a capable backup center. Trust me, I know.

It's that Turiaf owns his space.  He's not going through the motions of a NBA basketball game--he's celebrating every moment. In a corporate, pressurized, sport, Turiaf stands out as a whirlwind of innocent exuberance.  He gets hyphy, and so do you.  You do because he conveys just how much damned fun competition should be.  That's corny, but it's coming from a guy who might just channel his inner Ronny next time he wins at pickup hoops or even Madden 2010.  It won't look as cool when a 5-11 Jewish dude's jumping around and flailing, but I'm wringing more celebration out of life because Ronny showed me the way.

And here's where it gets a little messy again. I have no clue who the real Turiaf is.  I'm not even sure whether to call him, "Ronnie" or "Ronny." He really could be anybody, even a two-faced Kirby Puckett type.  All I know is that he gives a piece of his being every night on the court, and we're better for the transference.  Oh and then of course, there's this:

Bridge to Twitterithia, and my Warriors/Sports site

A lot of praise around the internets for the Dubs effort vs. The Lakers.  I certainly didn't expect anything but a Laker blowout, so...we should be happy?

Or not. The Warriors have near 50 win talent with a healthy squad, and these efforts should be the norm.  The Lakers game was a shining example in how brutally bad lineup decisions are snatching defeat from the splash whiskers of victory. Of course I'm going to talk about Anthony Randolph, and I don't care if people are tired of hearing it.  Anthony Randolph, he of the 'too many (gasp!) mistakes,' played a shade under 19 minutes.  Who can fault Nellie for that, the kid was clearly overmatched and killing the team?  I mean, getting only 5 blocked shots, going 3/5, 5 assists, a whole turnover, making Lamar Odom pee his pants...Hey, whenever you can sub out a guy on pace for a quadruple double for the unshaven corpse of Vladimir 'rather be snowboarding' Radmanovic...well, I'll stop with the cloying sarcasm.

Here are the AR per 36 minute totals:

Age      Tm      Lg      G      GS      MP      FG      FGA      FG%      3P      3PA      3P%
20      GSW      NBA      29      5      671      6.4      14.5      .439      0.1      0.3      .200

FT      FTA      FT%      ORB      DRB      TRB   AST     STL   BLK   TOV      PF     PTS
5.3      6.5      .810         3.3         6.9       10.2    2.1      1.3    2.5      2.4       4.5    18.1

I'll also add Randolph's PER of 18.64 (second on the team).  And don't start with that 'but he kills the team chemistry on defense!' The numbers ain't with ya on it. Sorry.

Here is Don Nelson's record since the beginning of last season: 38-75.  To those waiting for Nellie to coach us back from oblivion, do yourselves a favor and get super comfy.

I keep banging the same drum because the inexcusable occurs with alarming regularity.  Warrior 'drama' gets all the pub, but Nellie's unfettered mind-numbingly destructive lineup decisions is the real overarching trope of the post 'We Believe' era.  Nellie's addiction to 'small ball' (or in this case, intentionally losing and passing it off as a strategy) continues unabated, and I have this stupid urge to make the holdouts accept reality: Please, for the sake of sanity, objective truth, and common wisdom,  admit that he's coaching the team into the ground.  It's painful enough to watch this happen to my favorite team, I don't want to also feel like John Lithgow from 'The Twilight Zone' movie (there's a gremlin doling out minutes to Kurz/Mikki/Vlad!).

It went from frustrating to comical back to frustrating and perhaps back to comical again.  At least this losing strategy has it's comedic benefits. One sideshow of the Nellie ball experience is hearing/reading Nellie apologists defend these decisions to the bitter end.  As Nellie gets crazier, the apologists are forced into odd contortions.  If Randolph balls it up in mingy minutes, we get something like, 'Hey, Randolph grabbed two more rebounds after he was yanked and Nellie talked to him, yay Nellie!' Father knows best, right?  I'm sure he has his reasons, huh?  I'd be more inclined to believe this if Nellie hadn't pulled the same crap with virtually every young big who had the misfortune of suiting up for him.  Look, I have nothing but love for all the Dubs fans out there, and I want the Nellie lovers to be correct...but I don't think we're at a point of arguing the subjective anymore.  As in, one can argue that Wade is superior to Kobe Bryant, or vice versa. One cannot reasonably argue that Anthony Parker is superior to Kobe. And you can't make solid, data-based arguments for keeping the 20 year old on the bench.

The paternalistic excuses for Nellie's handling of Randolph have officially jumped the shark.  Nellie's not raising a child, he's keeping one of his best players off the court in favor of NBA dregs.  This isn't 1972, we have endless empirical evidence to prove a coaching failure. Warriors Fans, it's time to wake up and smell the scotch: Your coach is hurting the team.

My Jewish Christmas has me thinking NBA lottery gifts.  Is it too soon to think about the lottery? That question is rhetorical.  Thanks to the GSoM scouting project, much of that thinking will be refined to a tasty pulpy paste that Nellie should happily gobble or drink…if he’s heard of the internet.

Just for fun, I’ll add my rusty two cents about four months too early.  The Warriors are this year’s Grizzlies: They have redundancies of redundancies, which could force a dumb decision.  Who among us watched the Grizz glumly pick Thabeet and thought it would work out well? No one, except the rare breed of character who would actually admit to having thought anything other than ‘STIFF’ on draft day.  I respect that person’s honesty, and perhaps Thabeet will hit a championship-winning half court shot before it’s all said and done.  But in the pre-Thabeet half court shot era, the pick looks awful–especially since Conley’s looking like a guy who merely rode Greg Oden’s coattails (which will eventually lead to Greg Oden fracturing both coattails).  I guess my point is that W’s management shouldn’t worry about redundancy because we barley know who’s good on this youthful, crazy team.

If the Warriors Secaucus their way into the top 3, almost any pick would force a trade.  I love Derrick Favors as Amare 2.0, but what happens if we actually have the luck to get him? Biedrins trade? We give up on Randolph?  Another Monta vs. Curry situation among bigs? Same problems arise with the glorious John Wall.  This isn’t necessarily bad, it’s just an interesting place to be after so much pre-season playoffs hyping. Winning the lottery will set off a Tim Kawakami speculation bomb. Just prepare for it, no biggie.

Given our lotto luck, I wouldn’t be surprised if we slip past top 3 pay dirt.  If that happens, remember Evan Turner. I may be getting ahead of myself, but his talent will most likely exceed his draft selection number.  Hell, I’ll prematurely conjecture my mental mind into thinking we’ll get him.  So why does Turner Talent>Turner Selection?  He fractured two back vertebrae and is out two months.  This is a concern, but it is also a chance to get a DuJuan Blair bargain.

I heard an interview with Daryl Morey once, where he said that the Rockets consistently take on injury risk as a means of beating the basketball market (paraphrasing).  Perhaps Mr. Quantum physics was merely playing a Jedi Mind Trick so he could laugh when Donnie Walsh signed Jonathan Bender, but Morey’s words seemed pregnant with the veracity of a thousand George Washingtons.

In Morey I trust.  And in Evan Turner’s awsome rebounding, passing, and driving ability I sort of trust.  He’s six-foot-seven and ath-a-letic, as the announcers say. Check out this Turner youtube mix set to Eminem’s ‘Till I Collapse’ and try to keep from getting pumped (He looks like Tyreke Evans on some of the drives!).  Behold, his mighty rebounding and assist numbers (two huge Warriors concerns). With a little luck, we can add him and at least compensate for our suckitude with a historically youthful, compelling cast. Call it ’suckcitement.’

Bridge to Twitterithia

With the Warriors now shopping Maggette via ESPN.com leaks, the FO has made a tacit admission that his contract is 'bad'.'  I actually like Maggette's efficiency and think he gets too much grief for an ugly/selfish game.  The signing seemed ill-advised at the time, but that's not Corey's fault.  MEgette never promised to be Steve Nash.  Dude's a foul-machine-of-a-scorer, and he's been contributing recently.  If the Warriors deal young talent with CM just to shed his recently signed contract, it would be a bizarre case of GM schizophrenia (Let's sign this guy! Please take him off our hands, we'll give you stuff!). A contract retrospective is in order.  Since all things in sports must be compared, I'm 'analyzing' two dumb 2008 deals.  Was Philly dumber for luring Elton Brand from us, or were we dumber for holding our noses and nabbing Maggette?

Battle of Dumb!

Brand:

2006 PER: 23.17

2007 PER: 17.72 (8 games)

2008 PER: 14.65

2009 PER: 17.28

Dr. Evil negotiated contract for five years, and nearly 80 million dollars

Woefully underperforming

Team stocked at position (Young, Speights)

Logjam problem compounded by lack of burn for developing players

Brand is an arterial clog

Maggette:

2006 PER: 18.67

2007 PER: 19.41

2008 PER: 16.91

2009 PER: 18.69

Consolation for a consolation prize signs for five years, roughly 50 million dollars.

Performing well

Team stacked with similar players

Logjam problem compounded by lack of burn for developing players

Maggette is kidneystones

With emerging talents Speights and Young outplaying EB at the 4, Brand's bigger contract is currently a bigger disaster. But the Maggette contract could outstupid it.

Why? Because in the case of Corey, nothing unexpected happened. Maggette is playing at the exact decent level that you would expect him to. Brand was an injury gamble that didn't pan out. The Sixers are partially victims of bad luck, partially of a bad choice. While the Warriors are victims of....what, exactly? Bad planning? Insanity? Mullin? Rowell?

The 48 second mark of this is the perfect metaphor for Warriors FO strategy.  We've been doing the 'Anchorman' 'burrito out the window' routine for years, even with players who surpass expectations.  I challenge any team to up us in the fickle department!

Only the Warriors could be ingeniously dumb enough to...

a) Sign OK yet roster redundant swingman for a ridiculous 50 million dollar contract

b) Move the guy to sixth man role

c) Continue to play dude as sixth man, even when roster shrinks small enough to comfortably fit in my car

d) My car isn’t large

e) Play 6-6 guy at powerforward, but play him behind Vladimir Radmonivic

f) That’s right, Vlad Rad

g) Get desperate to unload player’s contract

h) Leak info to ESPN that you want to unload player’s contract and that you’ll include 20 year old PF who compares favorably to Josh Smith.

I’m stopping at h). The funniest part is, there were related stupid decisions the Warriors were saved from doing. Before signing Maggette, they offered Arenas 100 million dollars. After the knee injuries. After they lost out on Agent Zero in his prime. The Warriors also presented Brand a boatload of cash, only to be rejected. The Dubs actually gave Brand a bigger deal, but he decided the Sixers were a 'better fit.' If Brand was avoiding Cohan&Friends for the logical reasons, this was an ironic a case of past Warriors stupidity saving the Warriors. We should be so lucky in the future...

New twitter account, btws:

Unlike Tim Kawakami (he's often amusing), I refrain from deriding fans who still show up to Warriors games.  I'm a sucker like everybody else, and I occasionally find myself grinding teeth in the Oracle.  But I'm not going to our first nationally televised game on Friday--witnessing the Bobby-Cohan brigade suffer a revenue drop is just too much fun. For those who are going, allow me to be an arm chair general. To Warriors Nation, I propose a compilation of snarky in-game activities.  I'm not endorsing outright subversion per say--the following is just a collection of things fans ought not to not to do:

• The old bag on the head: Classic. Concise. Still comical.
  
• The 'All I want for Christmas...' signs:  We have so many desires this holiday season--new ownership....a sober coach....new coach...Randolph starting. I also would enjoy a "Happy Hannukah, our coach is meshuganah" sign. 
  
• The 'We Suck' signs: Whoever came up with that is a genius. Bagheads, this would be a great sign to rock.
  
• Start a campaign for Bill Simmons as GM:  The ESPN cameras would be more inclined to pick that one up than would the PR friendly CSN operation.

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Q: Thanks for agreeing to talk with me, I know it's difficult to speak to fans at a time like this.

Keith: Yes, well, at first I was worried and didn't know whether I should.  But Don said this is okay.

Q: That was nice of him.

Keith: Um, I think he gave the go ahead.  That catatonic look usually means 'yes.' When he ignores me and tosses the frisbee to Lucky, I think that means 'no.' Being a coach is hard sometimes.

Q: Right...so how has the interim job been going?

Keith: Great! Well, mixed results.  I'm not sure. I was told to keep saying we're too short handed to win, so I guess we're meeting expectations?

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Courtesy of Golden State Worriers, this pretty much drives home my point:

Let me begin by saying Vlad has the physical tools of a good NBA player. He's 6-10 and used to have a three point shot.  He could wake up tomorrow and turn it all around.  And he wouldn't be the first player to repair his image amid Warriors chaos.  Odds are against it, though.  My last post dealt with some fairly objective Anthony Randolph stats, but my Radman doubting has a subjective attribution: Fringe NBA hopeful Paul Shirley used to constantly joke about Vlad's apathy and lack of work ethic. This can be dismissed as uninformed NBA gossip, but Vlad hasn't improved since 2003 (this is where subjectivity meets cold, hard evidence of suck). 

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(I decided this post works better when people read onlxn's ode to Mikki Moore's craptitude)

Not a day goes by without a Bay Area media type sagely opining that Anthony Randolph should play 'under control,' or blaming Randolph's lack of PT on 'out of control' play.  Whenever the 20 year old plays well, he's given the backhanded compliment of having played 'under control' that evening.  I understand that the sentiment can come from a good place, but I chafe at the paternalistic tone with which Gary St. Jean uses it.  Actually, I chafe at anything Gary St. Jean says, and I hate how it always seems like he just woke up from a nap. Anyway, I fear that we're starting to drink the toxic Kool Aid that comes from our coaching staff, the same staff that works under management that has institutionalized destructive madness: We're starting to believe that Randolph hasn't earned a starting spot and is having a bad second year. Poor Nellie, he had such high hopes for the kid.

We're warming to this theme because humans seek order in their lives and can't stand the thought of authority figures doing irrational things. We want to think that Nelson has a tough love plan, that Randolph must be hurting the team, or that Mikki Moore brings veteran magic dust.  Our brains have trouble understanding why highly paid, motivated people would sacrifice game after game starting washed up scrubs like Vlad and Mikki. Poor management, with the injuries they're trying hard in a bad situation!

And we know how this thing usually goes in Warrior land. Management touts player, player gets blamed for team problems, player gets traded for crap, player flourishes elsewhere.  So before that happens with Anthony Randolph, I want to ask a simple question:

How bad has his second season been?

Let's check Randolph's stats and compare them to the 20 year old seasons of three realistic comps: Lamar Odom, Josh Smith, and Gerald Wallace.

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To hear people defend Don Nelson for his ridiculous decision of starting Mikki Moore is to hear people mindlessly flail at justifying an authority figure's actions (He MUST have some justification, he's the coach!).  At this point in his career, Moore is simply the worst NBA player I've ever seen in person.  I am not being hyperbolic. I have watched NBA basketball since 1990, and Moore is the worst. He gives you nothing. No rebounding, no shot blocking, no scoring, no defense. Nothing.  John Hollinger puzzled over why the guy is still in the league, and I share in his confusion.

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I need ideas, people. Big ideas.

There has been much discussion of what to nickname Curry. But we could do something bigger, something better: We could foment team harmony through granting Curry and Ellis a double nickname. Think about it. Shaq and Wade coexisted because they were Diesel and Flash. When he was with Kobe, only Shaq had the nickname(s). We all know how that went. A nickname tandem bridles egos. It is a constant reminder that players work together, need each other, and are better for the situation. Let's do our small part to mitigate the rumored Monta dissatisfaction over a new 'playmaking point guard.' I ask everybody here: What should we call the Slasher/Shooter Curry Ellis combo?

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Warning: This post will be nerdy. It will reference empirical fact, yet mix it with basketball hokum. Please don't take it that seriously.

In a league where you're only as good as your best three guys, it makes sense that the NBA's elite teams often have featured three guys capable of posting a plus 20 Player Efficiency Rating. San Antonio (Manu, Timmy, Tony), and L.A. (Kobe, Pau, Andrew) have done it, and the other big boys are damned close (Disney World, Boston). The Cavs are a notable exception, but they compensate by having an otherwordly PER machine in LBJ.

Well I got news for ya: The Dubs can make a run at the hallowed PER triple crown. Monta has gotten to the 19 mark and so has Biedrins. These two are just entering their respective primes, and I believe that at least one if not both of these overly maligned players can reach PER glory by season's end. 

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