On Sunday, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times had a blurb that caught my attention claiming that Tropicana Field has turned into a dead zone in centerfield turning would-be home runs into outs:

The other reason is the number of balls going out of it. The Rays seem convinced that for some reason, well-struck balls are not carrying to centerfield as they should, drives last week by Matt Joyce and Luke Scott the latest examples after the team noticed it last season. Ideas have been tossed out, and some looked into, such as the temperature (lower with fewer people?), humidity and air-conditioning currents.

There is some merit to the claim: From 2005-10, 10.7 percent of the homers hit at the Trop by all teams went to centerfield (112 of 1,046) and 30.4 percent from left-center to right-center (318). In 2011-12, entering Saturday, 3.8 percent (7 of 187) had gone to center and 20.9 percent (39) to left-center and right-center. (The only one to center this year was the Scott ball Seattle's Michael Saunders knocked over the fence.) "I think it's real," hitting coach Derek Shelton said. "I guess the wind's blowing in all the time."

Looking back from 2008 through the present, Rays hitters have only hit 21 balls out to straightaway centerfield at the Trop led by Carlos Pena's seven blasts.

Was there any relationship between the number of home runs to centerfield and the number of blue seats that were showing up to any given game? The attendance from 2008-2012 can be broken into the following quartiles:

Prior to Luke Scott's glove assisted home run, Carlos Pena's June 2010 blast against the Blue Jays was the only Rays home run to centerfield with fewer than 15,597 fans in attendance which is representative of 25% of the Rays games from 2008-present. It's not as ominous as it sounds, because the 2nd quartile had the highest incidence with nine home runs. And if you look at the median of 28,57 fans, there actually was one more home run with fewer fans than more fans.

To get a larger sample I looked at all home runs hit by the Rays to any field from 2008-present and got the following results.

It's a surprisingly similar result with Q2 being the highest home run total, Q1 the lowest and Q1+Q2 = Q3+Q4. If you are of the belief that somewhere between 15,597 and 20,929 fans in attendance optimizes the Rays potential for home runs, I've got a shortstop that hits high velocity fastballs better than low velocity that I'd like to sell you. Its fashionable to blame the blue seats for a lot of things, the sapping of power should not be one of them. Now who wants to volunteer to do the air current analysis?

It's been a pleasant sight to witness a strong turnout of fans through the first two series at Tropicana Field. Here are some facts and figures to put the start at the gate in perspective. First, there is year over year fact:

In 2011, the Rays opened with a 3 game weekend series against Baltimore and two hosting Anaheim. When they returned from their road trip they hosted Minnesota for a Thursday-Sunday series and the White Sox for a Monday-Thursday. It took the Rays 11 games to outdraw the 175,613 fans drawn through the first six games this season.

Yes, that includes a Yankees series which averaged 32,856 per game over the weekend. This is slightly above the 31,864 the Yankees have drawn over the weekend at the Trop from 2008-2011. In 2010 the Rays also had their home opening series over the weekend at the Trop and averaged 31,455. One quirky fact from 2011 is that all three home series against the Yankees were weekday series. In fact only 9 of the past 36 Yankee games have fallen on a Friday-Sunday. The Yankees have drawn 6,455 more fans per game on the weekend at the Trop. However this is likely not an accident as the loss in attendance from Yankee games on weekends is more than offset by the increase from smaller markets moving from the weekdays to weekends.

The three games series against the Twins averaged 25,681. This is actually below the 2008-11 weekend average of 26,287 against the Twins. This number appears inflated by some pennant chase baseball. A year ago in April from Friday to Saturday the Twins games averaged just 18,065.

The cushion built will through the first six games will come in handy as Anaheim is traditionally a weak draw averaging just 15,599 during weekday games from 2008-11 at the Trop. This includes games 4 and 5 last year which averaged a paltry 12,505 fans. Here's to the fans turning out and continuing to outpace their benchmarks.

With the Rays claiming Brandon Allen off waivers and BJ Upton's return from the disabled list, it was clear that two of three Al Lopez award winning position players (Stephen Vogt, Elliot Johnson, Reid Brignac) would not survive the weekend at Tropicana Field. Stephen Vogt was the obvious choice given that Allen will fill his role as designated pinch-hitter. There's also the fact that Vogt set a franchise record by making outs in his first thirteen plate appearances. Vogt is 27 years of age and without a designated position of excellence. Perhaps he will make it back to the big leagues, but if not I can appreciate that he will have the memories, three weeks of greatly enhanced pay checks and that shiny Al Lopez award. I'll always have the love for the fringe prospects/organizational soldiers so I enjoyed his stint.

The more difficult decision for the Rays came down to Reid Brignac, one year removed from being handed an unchallenged opening day shortstop gig, and the sole two-time Lopez award winner Elliot Johnson. Brignac, the 2004 2nd round pick of the Rays, is an advanced shortstop defensively but possesses a long loopy swing and very little discipline at the plate. Johnson was a long shot from the get go, getting his start as an un-drafted free agent out of high school in 2002. The scrappy utility man surprised many and managed to crack the 2008 opening day roster. His stay would be limited to 19 at-bats, and prior to the start of the 2010 season the out-of-options Johnson cleared waivers after he was designated for assignment. When Brignac won the Lopez award and cracked the opening day roster that same year, a crack opened for Johnson that he probably didn't recognize at the moment. He became a full time shortstop for Durham and made the most of the opportunity. Fast forward to 2011 in a post-Jason Bartlett world and you'd find Reid Brignac as the unchallenged shortstop with Elliot Johnson persevering and making it back to the big leagues as his backup.

In a vacuum there is not a team who would draft Elliot Johnson over Brignac. Brignac has the better glove at short (though Johnson has proven himself capable), has the more sparking pedigree and at 26, is two years younger than Johnson.He has one more thing that Johnson does not; a remaining minor league option. If the Rays want to keep both players in the organization, they can send Brignac down and be assured of losing neither. Johnson would have to be designated for assignment and has made himself more valuable than he was in 2010. Rumor in the Spring had the Twins interested in Johnson. Even if Johnson were to clear, he would be eligible to refuse assignment and become a free agent as a two time DFA winner.

This decision was not simply one of asset hoarding. If Johnson was set free, what would Brignac's role look like? Brignac could be a defensive closer late in games, with Sean Rodriguez sliding over to second base against left handed starters. This alignment offers an upgrade over Jeff Keppinger's glove. He also could start approximately 20-25% of the games when the Rays are facing right handed ground ball pitchers, the rare breed who dares cross Brignac's uppercut swing path.

Johnson also provides the potential for a late game defensive upgrade. He provides a better pinch running option for Jose Molina or even Luke Scott if the proper situation arose. In a small sample size, he's been a deceptively poor base runner, but the Rays seem to have plenty of confidence in that role for Johnson which is supported by his minor league record. Perhaps as a result of lacking a pedigree, Johnson developed as a utility man allowing Joe Maddon to comfortably play him at all seven of the non-battery positions. This allows Maddon the flexibility to pinch hit a designated bat like Allen for any righty against a righty (Molina, Rodriguez, Keppinger) with a sound defensive replacement available.

With both Brignac and Johnson, you really don't want them batting in a high leverage situation, but if you end up there by accident, the switch hitting Johnson is less likely to be neutralized by the opposing manager.

The role for the 25th man may best be defined as "anything but hitting", and Elliot Johnson is able to do more things for Joe Maddon. And who knows, maybe Brignac can take advantage of this trip to Durham to reinvent himself as a better utility specialist than Johnson in the same manner Johnson developed into a shortstop in 201

Attempting to quantify the value or effect of a hitting coach is generally deemed worthless, if not dangerous. Yet, the notion of ignoring what is difficult to measure seems to be even more reckless. Stats like batting average do have meaning, they just pale in comparison to other metrics that make a greater attempt to neutralize for park, luck and other factors which can make true talent levels difficult to estimate. Catcher defense was seemingly ignored forever because of measurement difficulties. Now, many pundits express with great confidence that Jose Molina's glove is worth an additional two wins for the Rays.

Measuring a team's offense against other teams in the league by any non-park-adjusted metric has obvious flaws. However, we can take a player's performance and retroactively compare it to his pre-season projection to gain an idea of whether or not he exceeded expectations. Below is a table of the 2011 Rays' Zip Projections for wOBA and their actual performance, along with the amount the performance over or under performed their projections. Given the definition of projections, it would be normal to expect an even distribution of over and under performers.

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Tributes to Dan Johnson are all over the web. This thread is a walk back in time for Johnson's four greatest nights in the American League East with videos and links to the DRB post-game threads. Sometimes reliving the video and the real time emotion of the community can be more effective than the written word. Enjoy.

The NESN commentary on the Papelbon home run is fantastic.

Rays Turn Tables With D.J., Win 5-4.

Then there was the dramatic two home run game against Phil Hughes from 2010, which came after the infamous Jeter phantom hit-by-pitch.

The first one:

The Second One:

It's also easy to forget the extra inning walk-off against Scott Atchison and the Red Sox:

http://www.draysbay.com/2010/8/29/1656822/dan-johnson-hits-walkoff-home-run

And the final moment, Game 162:

>

Playoff Baseball, Its Happening

The Night in Pictures

Evan Longoria is Friggin' Insane, or Rays Beat Yankees 8-7 and Advance to the Playoffs

Of course, I wanted to extend the season. Yet, I find myself incredibly satisfied with the wild ride that was the 2011 Rays baseball season. A year ago we said goodbye to past hero's Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, Jason Bartlett, Matt Garza, Rafael Soriano, Joaquin Benoit, Grant Balfour and the trusted ROOGY/LOOGY tandem of Dan Wheeler and Randy Choate. This was the year that was supposed to be highlighted by the amateur draft due to the surplus of picks and watching some of the young guns develop their games in an environment of lowered expectations.

Below is a quick look at the talent that was lost along with the contract received and any trade or draft pick compensation received:

The departing free agents earned an incredible $239.6 million in contracts, while the Rays received a legend named Fuld and 18 prospects. Oh, and the Rays won the wildcard out of the American League East.

Since being called up to the big leagues, Desmond Jennings has been a tour de force with a slash line of .295/.386/.530. Many fans have been left wondering what could have been had Jennings been called up earlier in the season prior to the Super Two cutoff date. Jennings has been worth 1.9 Wins Above Replacement in 47 games which is approximiately the same value produced by San Fuld with about 75% more plate appearances. If the season were to end with the Rays a game or two back, it would appear as if Jennings WAR rate might have been enough to make up the difference.

Critics of controlling service time will surely argue that the Rays missed the playoffs with their ways. Defenders of the process will argue that the Rays avoided an extra year of arbitration, preserved an extra projected peak age season, and can play him longer in centerfield where he is more valuable. These arguments have been made in the past and can be read more in-depth here.

Above all else is the fact the Desmond Jennings is playing far better than anybody projected. It is very easy to forget this knowing he has been a top rated outfield prospect each of the last two seasons. The tables below show Jennings 2010-11 AAA numbers as well as his 2011 MLB projections and results.

2010's AAA .755 OPS can be easily chalked up to Jennings' battle with a wrist injury. However Jennings is still outperforming by a wide margin his .830 2011 AAA OPS. His MLB projections are very similar to what you would expect from a reasonable corner platoon. In other words, based on expectations, the benefits of holding Jennings back a few months far outweighed a  reasonable projection of  his marginal increase in wins.

This is not meant to be an anti-Jennings BABIP/hot streak post. Its about how he has far surpassed his expectations. Given where he is on his developmental curve, hopefully it's a sign of wonderful things to come. Instead of criticizing the front office, ask yourself is his outburst on the big league scene possibly a result of the Rays extra cautious approach with his development? There are a few places I do feel the Rays were too cute this season; keeping Andy Sonnanstine on the big league club while allowing Cory Wade to opt out and promoting Justin Ruggiano over Brandon Guyer come to mind. Taking their time with Desmond Jennings in an attempt to maximize the use of his time in Tampa Bay was a wise risk/reward decision, end of the season finishing place be damned.

Unlike most toolsy draft choices by the Rays, 2010 1st round pick Josh Sale was selected out of a Seattle high school with the 17th player taken as a pure power bat. His 2011 debut on the surface has been largely an underwhelming mixed bag with a line of .209/.284/.366 as a 19 year-old in the Appalachian League. On the plus side, Sale is making contact, striking out just 16.2% of the time while walking 9.5%. However he has not blown through Princeton the way many were hoping for the top prep bat of 2010. While 13 of his 28 hits have gone for extra bases, his ISO  is just .157.

Many fans have pointed to the end-all-be-all that is BABIP (.234) as evidence that Sale has simply been the victim of bad luck. It's worth a dive beneath the surface to examine just what comprises Sale's batted ball profile. Component data isn't readily available for rookie ballers so I dove into milb.com's game recaps to create the following breakdown of Sale's first 147 plate appearances.

The top line does not paint a rosy picture. 50+% ground balls, only 11% line drives, and more than twice as many infield pops as home runs are indicative of poor contact. Nearly 80% of ground balls going to the right and up the middle will ultimately lead to easy shift decisions for opposing managers and low BABIP. Speaking of BABIP, here are Sale's BABIP splits by batted ball type and direction:

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Its hard to believe but true. Six of the past seven times the Rays loaded the bases with no runs ended with nary a baserunner crossing the plate. Below are a list of bullet points related to the Rays in situations with ducks on the pond and no one out:

• The Run Expectancy matrix shows a team should expect to score 2.47 runs with the bases loaded and nobody out. The Rays are averaging 1.75 runs.
• The distribution of runs over the season: 1,6,3,4,0,0,0,4,0,0,0
• The pitchers who Houdini'd the Rays are Dan Haren, Ryan Webb, Chris Narveson, Luke Hochevar, Joakim Soria, and Ricky Romero.
• Despite the reputation as a death blow, the Rays are 3-3 in games when they have been Houdini'd.
• The Magic of Kotch has faded with the bases loaded and less than two outs: 0-5 with 4 double plays though two were in the air.
• The last eight batters to come to the plate with no outs and the bases juiced have failed to produce a run.
• The team has had 50 plate appearances with the bases loaded and less than two outs, yet Evan Longoria is yet to have an opportunity.
• Matt Joyce is 0-5 with a Sac Fly in his six plate appearances with the bases loaded and less than two outs (1 RBI in 6 PA). 
• 10 of the team's 50 plate appearances with the bases loaded and less than two outs have resulted in double play's, an astonishing 20% rate.
• The bright spots: Ben Zobrist 2-4 (2B, HR, BB) and Johnny Damon (reached bases 3 of 8 times, RBI in 6 of 8 chances) have produced 17 of the teams 32 RBI with the bases loaded and less than two outs.
• Rays pitching has only pulled off one Houdini this year in 12 chances when Jake McGee and Juan Cruz shut down the Red Sox in extras.

One of the drums I was beating in the Kotchman thread was that given today's offensive offensive climate and the Trop's ability to swallow power by the gallon, Kotchman's high contact, hit to all fields skill set can provide a unique fit for the Rays.

To the point of the stadium, I mentioned in the comments that opposing first basemen have posted a line of .290/.364/.441 with 5 HR and an ISO of just .151 at the Trop. One might surmise that with the strength of the Rays pitching and defense that would not be entirely unexpected, but on the road opposing first basemen are hitting .314/.402/.562 with 10 HR and an ISO of .251.

As for the offensive climate, power has become a very difficult and therefore pricey commodity to find. Observe the chart below covering each position's OPS for 2009-11. First basemen are OPSing just .782 down from .846 in 2009. The raw data in table format follows.

It had long been assumed Carlos Pena would no longer be a Ray once his three-year contract ended following the 2010 season. There was some consideration of a hometown discount deal from the fan base when Pena posted a very disappointing 1 WAR season in 2010. Perhaps Pena would sign a one year deal to rebuild his value went the line of thinking, but Jim Hendry and the Cubs quickly squashed that idea by ponying up $10 million on a one-year deal.

The Rays were left with AAA/Japan/anti-Red Sox home run hero Dan Johnson and little else in the cupboard. PECOTA offered some reassurance with a projection of .244/.368/.465 for the Pumpkin, but the Rays wanted to make sure they had an insurance plan. Collective groans went out when that insurance plan turned out to to be buy-low candidate Casey Kotchman, he of the .217/.280/.336 2010 slash line, to a minor-league deal. The reaction was even worse once Nick Johnson and Russell Branyan signed minor-league deals as well.

It's easy to lose sight of the fact that first base was a huge question mark coming into the season and how we all gushed over Johnson's .833 OPS projection. How does Kotchman fit in amongst the rest of the 2011 crop of free-agent first basemen who were available to the Rays?

Casey Kotchman's 136 wRC+ eclipses every season of the Carlos Pena era with the exception of 2007's 167. Kotchman's .846 OPS eclipses the .833 PECOTA for Dan Johnson that had us all tickled pink. Kotchman has outperformed every free agent first basemen with the exception of the $37 million Paul Konerko and wake me up the day you see the Rays making that type of investment in a free agent first baseman. Friedman once again has skimmed the bargain bin and found a magical season, one beyond any dreamer's wildest vision. If Carlos Pena, Russel Branyan, or Dan Johnson was putting up an .846 OPS as a Ray, we would not be bemoaning the fact he was under-performing Albert Pujols or Adrian Gonzalez but rather celebrating a player who outperformed expectations. If fingers are to be pointed at individuals it should be at those who have failed to live up to the expectations set for them not a first baseman making less than $1 million. That is where the shortfall exists.

Sorry for the fan post, but FS are better suited for one link. Three good reads I came across outside of the local media:

The Herald-Sun from Durham did a real nice piece on Elliot Johnson (h/t watchingdurhambullsbaseball.com). Make all the grit jokes you want, but its really hard not to root for this guy.

http://www.heraldsun.com/view/full_story_sports/12584444/article-Another-swing-at-big-leagues?instance=bulls_article

Timy Gayle of the Montgomery Advertiser takes a look at Matt Bush's journey, seems as though he had surgery on the right radial nerve in his upper arm last year.

http://www.montgomeryadvertiser.com/article/20110407/SPORTS01/104070321/1018/-last-chance-Former-No-1-draft-pick-gets-fresh-start-Biscuits

Stacy Lonf of the same paper also takes a detailed look at Matt Moore and the bone chip surgery he had in the off-season. Moore credits Neil Allen changing his fastball grip for his improvement in 2010.

http://www.montgomeryadvertiser.com/article/20110407/SPORTS01/104070318/1018/Barons-his-crosshairs-Meet-Biscuits-strikeout-machine

Enjoy!

It seemed obvious at the time. Ben Zobrist, a shortstop, had been having a fine year at the plate with the Rays in 2008, complemented by some monster numbers in Durham. Gabe Gross was an eyesore on the untrained eye at the dish with a ..238 batting average. If Zobrist could play shortstop, of course he could be expected to play a respectable corner outfield. Gross batted only .143 in July and .211 in August. As the postseason arrived I was beside myself, and a DRB username was born.

It turns out I was a bit lucky on my first argument. The percentages were against Zobrist over Gross in right field, and the responsible choice in the thick of a pennant race was Gross. Zobrist's major league sample size gave an indication his power surge likely was not real, Gross turned out have had an above average overall season at the plate against right-handed pitching with a wOBA of .349, and it turns out it's not so easy to learn a new position on the fly in a pennant race. However, the fact that known sabertruths are not absolute truths, merely a guide, has not been lost on me.

The debate with those much more informed with me at the time, namely R.J. Anderson and Navi's Navy created an unquenchable thirst for the pursuit of advanced savermetric knowledge. The respect and admiration I developed for the way the Rays organization is run left me wanting to try to predict their next move in the way that Tommy Rancel seems to pick bullpen options out of the blue for the Rays on an annual basis. Even more so, when a move seems unusual such as batting Jason Bartlett against most right-handed pitchers over the slicker glove and more left-handed bat of Reid Brignac, I wanted to try to backdoor the reasoning behind the move. This is what drove me to writing as a hobby.

Continue reading this post »

With a few weeks left from the start of the regular season and the Rays rosterbation slowing down, its worth a quick fly around to see what the outlook is for the former Rays who have left the team over the past three seasons. Let' take this from the most recent exoduses and head back through 2008 over a series of posts.

Carl Crawford

With all the talk of a willingness to play centerfield and leadoff if that's what the Red Sox desired from him, it seems like Crawford is likely going to be in his familiar situation of playing left field and batting 2nd for the Sox. His bat and speed are dangerous wherever, but I am happy he will be in left where his incredible range will be mitigated at home by the Green Monster while also leaving his average-at-best arm exposed. 

Carlos Pena

Pena will look to rebound from a very rough 2010 with the Cubs. He seems to be slotted for fifth in the order and has had a pretty solid Spring, something he has struggled to do in recent years. Pena is 11-37 with 2 home runs, while also drawing six walks.

Continue reading this post »

Emotions have been running high over hometown high school hero Casey Kotchman's return to the bay area or at least to the organization whose Major League Baseball team plays here. Kotchman's struggles over the past few seasons and his strong Spring are well documented. Joe Maddon made it fairly clear Dan Johnson will be the starting first baseman for this club which means Casey Kotchman will be headed to Durham to start the year. It's the right decision in terms of both expected production and roster flexibility. It's really not all that different from Dan Johnson having to bide his time last year waiting for Pat Burrell's continued Tampa Bay fizzle and the Hank Blalock experiment. Burrell had loads of capital invested in him and Blalock had an opt-out date forcing the Rays hand to give him a test drive or lose him forever. The question that is worth discussing is what the likely situation would be that would put Kotchman in a Tampa Bay big league uniform.

Casey Kotchman is an excellent defensive first baseman but is limited to the position of first base only. So who would have to get hurt in order for Kotchman to get a call? The conversation must first start with the incumbant Dan Johnson. Johnson has played both third base and the corner outfield in the past but struggled mightily in small samples at each position. It is likely that Johnson would field a position other than first base only in the event of an in-game emergency like when catcher Shawn Riggans manned left field for an inning or two. The Rays also have an option to play 3rd base on the roster in Sean Rodriguez, and Felipe Lopez likely will be available in Durham. Kotchman likely will need an injury to either Manny Ramirez or Dan Johnson to have a shot. In the event Ramirez goes down, moving Johnson back to the designated hitter role would be an option allowing Kotchman's glove to play at first.

For Kotchman to even be considered a possibility he must first demonstrate in Durham that his swing truly has found a groove to where he could be at least a league average bat. For his career Kotchman has been an 8.8 runs above average first baseman over 150 games, according to Ultimate Zone Rating. A league average bat (.327 wOBA)  would make Kotchman worth slightly less than a win not accounting for position over a season (doesn't matter within the context of a lineup). Under this scenario, Damon would stay in left and Johnson would serve as the designated hitter.

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Some stuff is too good to let slip deep in the back of an OTTOTD. For the sake of easy retrieval, here are the highlights of the DRB Fashion Faux Pas Committee on Men's Shorts.

RGlass: I prefer the 7inch (proper coverage), but the 9 inch seems to be coming in (mad gays last year were wearing them). The 5 inch is for the elss well-endowed that really like their quads. Umm the polin button downs are MONTE. The sweaters or w/e with them look retarded, but you don’t buy the stuff in sets. top 1 is a cardigan which is all the rage, though I won't wear them. 2 is a grey sweater. Not sure why that’s weird. 3 is a sweet blue poplin button down taht I believe I own (not from JC though, BB FTW!). Top 4 is a plaid button down with a crew neck sweater. Still don’t see what’s offensive. Flat front is the way to go and above the knee is a must. Pleated for more just hangin, and flat front for ball games and lookin MONEY. I used to rock ‘em longer, but then I realized how the ladies couldn’t resist the sexy, tan man-thighs. You gotta see my quads. Re: plaid. A simple madras is OK, but when you get too crazy or add cargos it can be a bit much. I prefer plain, seer sucker, or ones with cool aquatic life on them (fish, lobsters, etc.). The one prob with salmon shorts is finding a pastel polo that doesn't scream look at me. Gotta go with a simple yellow or something to keep it from being “too much.” I rock a 38/40 and I'm not that fat. Just big. 42 can still be dec. You have to have manly thighs to pull it off. Being of W. European stock helps because we don’t get that gross WOPy leg hair. I'm comfortable in jeans and a tshirt. As long as the jeans were a hundred bucks.

DPIR: I'm not sure what the fuck a J-Crew is but you should only shop at Old Navy. I'm still young and need to show off my swag.Okay, it's still winter season. If you want to be big pimpin', you need to buy some of their short-sleeved button downs. Under that, you need to sport a long sleeve t-shirt, either gray or white. Compliment it with some khaki shorts and shit if you’re in the mood, but some gel in your hair. Hey, some of us are still hip, young, and cool. Can't be going out dressed like I'm all professional and shit, wtf? Listen, take this advice from an 18 y/o college kid. Jorts are for douchebags. I don’t think I see many people wearing them around campus and when they do they’re usually rocking the avaiators and wear skinny jeans when they aren’t wearing their jorts. Plaid shorts are fine but to a certain extent. You don’t want some flamboyant fucking design or colors on them. Keep it simple like a white/blue mixture. Only problem with plaid shorts is that you have to wear solid colored shirt to match with them. Cargo shorts are the most common from what I can tell. They’re sort of frat-boyish, but they’re fine. Personally, I prefer khaki shorts. As long as they aren’t too short (hang right at the knee or above it), they’re pretty badass. Wear these and you’ll be a pimp. If you’re buff and want to let everyone know that you workout err day, wear some gym shorts accompanied with a plain colored t-shirt. Usually you’ll see these dudes wearing a Tapout hat, as well. Listen, I don't make the rules. I just observe the trends. There's literally no other place to shop to make me feel like a pimp. I'd say American Eagle but it's way too expensive there. A groomer. I got one of them, it's pretty rad.

Warde: I love Jcrew shirts and polos. They fit so god. Khaki shorts are the only acceptable form of ‘nice’ shorts. The pockets are made for sunglass holding (so useful) and holding little plastic bags. 42 is average in America probably

Sandrew: There's a difference between jorts and jean shorts. If they aren’t homemade you’re probably ok.

JaxRaysGirl: I hesitate to give an opinion on this. Not everyone should wear shorts.  In general, though, I agree with DaPriceIsRight. However, some people should not wear shorts at all. I am of the opinion that jorts or jutoffs on men are never okay and should get the wearer a one way ticket to a trailer park where they will need to live the rest of their life. Well, I know it's really superficial, but if you are extremely overweight and you have sores and scabs all over your legs, cover that shit up. No one wants to see it. If you have Muppet furry legs, either trim them up, or wear pants, because wearing shorts over what looks like fur pants is just gross. Fat people.  They are everywhere. I don’t think they should sell shorts above a size 16 in women’s and I don’t think they should sell them in larger than a 42 in men’s.

Dobber:

There has been quite a bit of chatter/speculation/freaking out about just who will sit against left-handed pitching on the Rays this year.  Personally, I think it's much ado about nothing. Here are the right handed-bats we can pretty much pencil in against southpaws:

• 3B Evan Longoria
• CF BJ Upton
• Sean Rodriguez
• C Kelly Shoppach
• DH Manny Ramirez
• Ben Zobrist

That leaves three spots open between first base, second base, shortstop and two corner outfield spots, since we know Sean Rodriguez and Ben Zobrist will be fielding two of them. How will those plate appearances be broken up between Matt Joyce, Dan Johnson, Reid Brignac, Johnny Damon and an Elliot Johnson type?

Continue reading this post »

When one is given what we in the media call "an advanced copy" of a literary work it is customary to first read the book and then to offer a review. So let's begin the book review of TPR11 by stealing the format of opening up an article with a lame joke from RJ Anderson to offset Josh Frank's theft of my Delmon Young Trade String which has since been "stolen" from him:

Q: What do you get when you take the best writers in the Rays blogosphere and produce one fantastic team annual?

A: Low sales volume as a result of only having an illiterate data hound left on the sideline failing to do the work justice in the form of a book review.

TPR11 has been in the works for over a year now and takes a sharp turn from team annuals of the past. Gone are the deeply analytical stat driven pieces, heat maps, and graphs.  In its place the reader will find deeply satisfying pre-season reading that can be revisited on an annual basis so long as Team Sternberg is running the organization.

The party gets started with a foreword from Jonah Keri, the author of a little-known or referenced book about the rise of the Rays under team owner Stu Sternberg. Keri was a logical choice given the synergies that exist between the publications, Keri's considerable name recognition, and his business relationship at Bloomberg Sports with TPR writers RJ Anderson and Tommy Rancel. Keri quickly drills into TPR's methodology of focusing on the importance of process over results using "The Danks Theory" as revealed by Rancel as a primary example.

Nicholas Macaluso (@thekidpow) will quickly become the BJ Upton of the Rays blogging community as he likely will never be able to duplicate his debut piece of work, "The Process, The Beast, and the Emptiness of Winning."  You don't have to be a stat geek to appreciate this piece covering the authors realization that pain and glory for a fan are only temporary. On the contrary, diamonds are forever and so is the Process. Macaluso's writing is brilliant and can appeal to sports fans who may not even like baseball. It's the type of quality writing that can be found in the Best American Sports Writing Series, of which I have invested countless throne hours reading about all sports from ultra-marathons to college hoops to water polo. This piece will leave Rays fans hearts swelling with pride, while leaving us chomping at the bit for opening day.

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Robinson Chirinos came over in the Matt Garza deal with perhaps the most compelling narrative, but no higher than the the third highest ceiling of the Five Man Garza Loot Band. It's easy to get behind a player who made the unusual conversion from shortstop to catcher in his 25-year-old season in Advanced-A ball in 2009. Chirinos took to the position well and the career momentum carried over to his bat. Nonetheless, Chirinos will turn 27 in June and only has 62 plate appearances to date at the Triple-A level.

Chirinos was just added to the 40-man roster this off season, meaning he has a slew of options the Rays could burn through, a nice luxury that could enable Chirinos to continue to hone his staff-handling craft in Durham. "Lefty-mashing" catcher Kelly Shoppach is in the final guaranteed season of his deal, earning $3 million, leaving Chirinos with seemingly little hope outside of an injury to crack the opening day 25-man roster.

It still seems likely that Chirinos will begin the season in Durham, but the Venezuela native is doing everything in his power to battle his way on the roster a la Sean Rodriguez in 2010. Chirinos is 7-18 this Spring with three walks. Five of the seven hits have been of the extra base variety. His slash line is .389/.496/.944. Even that video game cheat code line doesn't do the week he is having justice.

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Recently I touched on concerns regarding a possible increase in groundball double plays from the 1st and 2nd positions with John Jaso in the leadoff slot. I decided to look a little deeper into the Carl Crawford effect in 2010.

Carl Crawford came to the plate with a man occupying 1st base with less than two outs in what is commonly known as a double play opportunity 132 times in 2010. In those spots he put up a tidy slash line of .336/.375/.571, also known as fantastic. There were still another 62.5% of the time where Crawford failed to reach safely. Of that 62.5% of the time, 37  times Carl Crawford slapped a groundball fielded by an infielder, prime double play territory. Just twice did that fielded infield ground ball result in a double play. Two out of 132 times. Here is a breakdown of Crawford's groundballs that did not result in double plays based on out state. Runs represents the amount of runs the Rays scored in the same inning after Crawford avoided getting doubled up.

15 times Crawford avoided an inning-ending double play resulting in 3 RBIs and 12 runs to come.  On the 19 GDIP avoided with no outs, 19 runs scored later in the inning. How does this compare to the Rays most likely to fill in the 1-2 slots this season?

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It seems like John Jaso is the clubhouse leader to lead off the batting order against right-handed pitchers prompting me to declare yesterday that John Jaso might currently be the most overrated Ray. I like John Jaso a great deal and feel more confident in the team's catcher position than I ever have. I simply question whether there aren't better alternatives to shaping out the top of the order.

John Jaso burst upon the scene last year displaying an eagle-eye and great baserunning instincts, a very refreshing set of attributes when compared to the man he replaced, Dioner Navarro. Jaso quickly rose from a short-term replacement at the catcher position to the top of the order against right-handed pitching. At the time of his leadoff promotion last year I penned this piece arguing against the move despite the .425 OBP through two months:

While Jaso has OBP skills, particularly for a catcher, I'd be surprised to see him  north of .355 from here on out. That's a number to be proud of, but not what is needed at the top of the order of this team sans speed. I see no benefit out of anybody not named Carl Crawford or Evan Longoria having more plate appearances than Ben Zobrist and since CC won't bat leadoff....

 I ran the numbers to discover that from June forward, Jaso produced an OBP of wait for it...... .355. This is a bet I would double down on again this year. There is no shame in a .355 OBP, but this team is blessed to have a few players capable of this figure. What are other factors that would lead me to look elsewhere?

The stacking of lefties could be a concern. Unless BJ Upton bats ninth against right-handers you are likely looking at three lefties at 9-2 in the order in Reid Brignac, Jaso, and Johnny Damon. If Upton isn't 8th, it could be more making bullpen management far easier on opposing managers.

Despite Jaso's great baserunning instincts, you can't hide his true speed out of the box.  He is an above-average double play threat. Of Rays hitters with at least 50 potentional GIDP opportunities, Jaso finished second in GIDP % with a Navarro like 13% With his high contact rate, the possibility increases. If the 8-9 men get on, GIDPs with the big boppers coming up are highly unfortunate events.

Stolen base potential out of the leadoff spot should also be at a greater premium than in seasons past. WIth Carl Crawford batting 2nd, there was little reason for concern over the number two hitter getting doubled up. This year the leadoff man stealing 2nd could be the difference between a runner on 3rd and 1 out, and nobody on and two out.

In my mind, Ben Zobrist is still the best candidate to lead-off as SternFan and I have championing since 2009 (SternFan has since defected, probably Zo's ultimate endorsement). He combines Jaso's ability to work the count and get on base at a high clip, with better speed and the switch-hitting ability to keep opposing managers on their toes. John Jaso is a great asset for the Rays and quite likable. I think his skill set makes for a great 9 hitter as the second lead-off man, but he's not the player I want getting the most plate appearances on the team.

Most of the early season roster questions are settled by the time April Fools Day rolls around. There is nothing left to do until Opening Day except to speculate how things will work out over the upcoming 162 games. We've all been teased by the randomness of Spring and a small dose of shiny new toy syndrome. Let's take a quick stroll down Comment Lane at some of the April fears and dreams in 2010 that look a bit silly in retrospect.

On the Bullpen:

Not confident in the bullpen at all

Ekstrom’s garbage. Who knows how Sonnanstine will do? Cormier’s a last-guy-out-of-the-pen type masquerading as a middle reliever. Balfour’s had his issues.

Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on Apr 2, 2010 7:20 PM PDT reply actions  

 

firmly agree.

starters must go deeper this year.

Mira Sorvino...Paul Walker...T-Pain...Fall 2010...HEADSTONE MAFIA, A LOVE STORY OF REVENGE. "5/5 stars!!!" - DRB User "Andy Hellicksonstine"

by PlayOnWords on Apr 2, 2010 7:35 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions  

 

im feeling like the guy with the least amount of question marks is dan wheeler

and that is terrifying.

Mira Sorvino...Paul Walker...T-Pain...Fall 2010...HEADSTONE MAFIA, A LOVE STORY OF REVENGE. "5/5 stars!!!" - DRB User "Andy Hellicksonstine"

by PlayOnWords on Apr 2, 2010 8:48 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions  

It's 2007 all over again in the pen

by sternfan1 on Apr 2, 2010 9:03 PM PDT reply actions  

Ekstrom, Sonny, Cormier, Choate and Balfour=DISASTER

ANd again i hope i eat these words

by sternfan1 on Apr 2, 2010 9:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

Matthan's Predictions:

So happy baseball is here

1. Rays win the East with 100-105 games
2. Beat the Phils for the WS title
3. SRod dominates…he’s on all my quasi deep fantasy leagues
4. Upton bounces back and is top 5 in MLB in WAR
5. Rays draw great crowds…2.5 mil
6. New stadium gets closer to reality in the Channelside or Carillon area

but then again I’m optimistic to a fault sometimes…#6 scares me the most…

Go Gators!!

by matthan on Apr 6, 2010 11:25 AM PDT via mobile reply actions  

A DH Opportunity Squandered:

A bit surprised

I thought a Blalock/Burrel platoon would be nice.

No more Cowbells!

by bestbostonsports on Apr 2, 2010 1:22 PM PDT reply actions

I cannot cannot cannot see how this was the right move

The cons are overwhelming I think, we’re starting the arb clock on a future key cog early and we’re robbing Brignac of time in AAA to improve his bad plate discipline and overall hitting practice.
Especially with Sean Rodriguez available to be a middle infielder, I can’t fathom why we need Brignac to be a backup backup. Blalock is the better hitter no question ,even if he is overrated.

by benderbrodriguez on Apr 2, 2010 2:29 PM PDT reply actions  

Blalock will have 30 homers this year

Book it

by raysrule44 on Apr 2, 2010 4:11 PM PDT reply actions  

There has been a lot of good dialogue regarding certain players such as Matt Joyce and Kelly Shoppach over the past week  and  their situational usage in platoon roles. Shoppach in particular was simply awful versus right-handed pitching in 2010. How awful? Awful to the tune of a .210 wOBA and 54.3% strikeout rate, much worse than his career split numbers against righties: .302 and 39.1%. It's easy to jump to the conclusion that Joe Maddon used Shoppach terribly last year, allowing him to face righties nearly half the time (45%), but digging a little deeper reveals that the skipper was far more delicate in handling the burly catcher's platoon usage than his previous managers. Shoppach had faced right-handed pitching in 68-79% of his plate appearances in each of the previous four seasons with nowhere near the dreadful results.

We all know Maddon loves to maximize his daily lineups by trying to take advantage of any platoon splits available, be it handedness or opposing pitcher batted-ball profiles. Over the past three years the Rays have had four veteran  "lefty mashers", or right-handed platoon hitters: Gabe Kapler, Kelly Shoppach, Jonny Gomes, and (to a lesser extent) Jason Bartlett. Remembering Kapler's laughable 2009 campaign against right-handers, I thought it worth a quick look to see what the potential downfall was to an individual's ability to hit the same-handed pitching when given the opportunity less frequently. Each veteran had his most favorable usage to the team (lowest % of plate appearances versus RHP) under the guidance of Joe Maddon. Did this usage make them worse against right-handed pitchers, though?

I looked at the last five years of each individual when they had at least 50 plate appearance against right-handed pitching. The results can be found in the chart at the top of the article or in the tables below.

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It is hard to dispute that Carl Crawford has made the biggest in-uniform contribution in Rays franchise history, but newly-anointed Friend of the Site PlayOnWords recently raised an interesting question:

When its all said and done, who will be more important to this franchise: Delmon Young or Carl Crawford?

Obviously what he is referring to is the legacy of the Friedman-crafted Delmon Young trade string. It's worth a look to see where the two sides stand today, and what "History" (this is what I call the tag team of Victor Wang and Sky Kalkman) tells us to expect going forward.

Let's start with Carl Crawford. Including his signing bonus, Carl Crawford earned $32.32 million from the Tampa Bay organization while producing 34.5 Wins Above Replacement over a 9 year period. If we a assume the value of a win in free agency at $4 million-per-win, Crawford produced at a surplus value of $105.68 million.

(34.5 x 4) - (32.32)= 105.68

Value of Performance - Value Paid = Surplus Value

Furthermore the Rays earned the 24th ($5.2 million) and 38th pick ($2.6 million) in the 2011 draft as compensation for losing Carl Crawford in free agency. This brings the expected surplus value of Crawford and his legacy to $113.43 million.

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By popular request a FreeZo (content) and EmmyFront (visual presentation) collaboration. A name in red indicates the end of that thread string with no further compensation.  For those keeping score the Rays have banked 15.2 WAR for $10.4 million while the Twins have banked 0.3 WAR for $10.8 million. The Twins have Delmon Young rising up in salary and nearing free agency and a small amount of stake in Brett Jacobsen and Jom Hoey ((JJ Hardy was the bigger prize) while the Rays have 9 new team-controlled branches. 

Shortly after the Rays were defeated in the 2008 World Series, Edwin Jackson was shipped off to the Detroit Tigers in exchange for Matt Joyce. Some were surprised by the departure; despite being left out of the post-season rotation, Jackson set a franchise record with 14 wins and was only 25 years-old. This was the first occurrence of a wonderful, recurring problem for the Rays: too much starting pitching. Two former first-round picks were waiting in the wings in Triple-A Durham - David Price (1st overall)  and Jeff Niemann (4th) - and Wade Davis and Mitch Talbot were banging on the door as well. Something had to give, so it was likely the Rays would either move Edwin Jackson or Andy Sonnanstine.

There were many different factors that went into the decision of who to trade. Jackson had just finished up his final season of team control, while Sonnanstine had two more seasons remaining before becoming arbitration eligible. Another determining factor was what each player could bring back in return. Sonny, a soft-tossing right-hander, completed a great 2008 campaign mixing up his four pitches to keep hitters off-balance. Jackson threw much harder and earned more wins, but most peripherals gave the edge to Sonnanstine. Jackson oozed potential despite only glimpses of greatness. We will never know if Sonny was shopped as well, but I feel pretty confident that Joyce is being better than anything the Rays would have received back for Andy.

Hindsight is 20/20 and Edwin went on to have two very good seasons producing 3.5 and 3.8 WAR (vs. 1.3 and 1.5 in the two prior seasons with the Rays) while earning $2.2 and $4.2 million. That's outstanding production for that price. Jackson is set to make north of $8 million this season and was involved in his third trade in three years, moving on to the White Sox. The Rays may have been well suited to hang on to Jackson, but at the same time, by trading him they acquired six seasons of Matt Joyce and made room for Niemann in the rotation. The Rays may not have fleeced the Tigers, but they were able to exercise risk minimization.

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A lot of post-Manny/Damon signing analysis has declared Desmond Jennings the biggest loser of the day as it appears he is destined to start the season in AAA Durham. To be honest, this was a likely scenario before the signings, but the presence o Johnny Damon no longer makes it a short-term sacrifice for the benefit long-term game. Desmond Jennings has been our top positional prospect for a few seasons and has an incredibly bright future, but there are several good reasons from the team's perspective to have him in Durham for the near-term. Let's take a look at some of the common arguments for putting Jennings on the 25-man and then I will attempt to validate the reasons why it is preferable to have him in Durham.

1. Desmond Jennings has already played a full season in AAA and is one of the top outfield prospects in baseball. Leaving him in AAA any further can be discouraging and stunt his development.

Desmond Jennings would probably be the first to tell you he had a disappointing 2010 campaign. Deezy entered the season ranked as the sixth best overall prospect in baseball by both Keith Law and Baseball America. Jennings sprained his wrist in the Spring, and failed to build on 2009's momentum finishing with a AAA slash line of .278/.362/.393. Jennings has displayed a great glove, plate discipline and speed, but the power element has yet to blossom. Hopefully Jennings can build on these numbers in 2011 and earn a promotion to the big leagues, but there is plenty of room for development in AAA in the mean time. Injuries have been a concern about Deezy for years, and last season  did nothing to quell those worries.

We have heard similar concerns regarding stalling the development  of John Jaso (26/27), Matt Joyce (25/26), and Reid Brignac (24/25), yet when they finally got their chance they proved able to deliver with minimal growing pains and will now be around the organization for their peak years which leads us to...

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Friend of the site R.J. Anderson recently made the following comment on Twitter:

 Josh Hamilton/Buster Posey = Godwin's Law of @DRaysBay. If a thread goes long enough, those names will pop up.

Tired of waiting around for pitchers and catcher to report, I decided to look back and see which Rays players from the 2008-10 seasons have been the most commented on. For the sake of consistency, we will be looking solely at searches of the last name.

First, the raw top 10 most frequently commented on:

1. Scott Kazmir     28,212
2. David Price    19,021
3. BJ Upton    8,047
4. Carlos Pena    7,979
5. Matt Garza    7,082
6. Jonny Gomes    6,866
7. James Shields    6,680
8. Ben Zobrist    6,412
9. Jason Bartlett    5,495
10. Jeff Niemann    5,399

Price and Kazmir may or may not have received artificial boosts for User Names and the word "price". Seems amazing that Niemann would have drawn more comments than oh say...Crawford. It pays to have no pet names.

How about the bottom 10?

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