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Does Navi fit into the current roster construction of the Rays?

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In 2009, the catcher slot represented a hole in the Rays line up more glaring than the sun. Unlikely 2008 All-Star Dioner Navarro took a rather nasty statistical nose dive, leaving  the Front Office little choice but to use their Z-game in acquiring 38 year-old Gregg Zaun for minor league first-baseman Rhyne Hughes. Zaun provided exactly what R.J. expected when he called for the Rays to look into Zaunover a month before the trade occurred. Zaun and Navi afforded the Rays a pair of complementary switch-hitters. Zaun fares slightly better versus right-handed pitching while Navi has a much wider gap between his splits in favor of facing southpaws.

Catchers who can hit lefties are a-dime-a-dozen as all catchers field right-handed. One of the main reason catchers are routinely criticized as poor hitters is because in 2009 70.5% of American League plate appearances came against right-handed pitching. This places left-handed hitting or good switch-hitting catchers at a premium as they have favorable platoon splits far more often than their right-handed counterparts.

Heading into the off-season, many expected the Rays to try to keep Zaun aroundfor a year while replacing Navarro. The thinking was that both catchers would cost $2-3 million and perhaps a cheaper alternative could be found for Navarro since Zaun has a more favorable match-up 29.5% of the time. Two potential roadblocks to this plan were Zaun's increasing age, and a compensatory 2nd round pick awarded to the Rays if another team was to sign Zaun due to his Type B free agent status.

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More photos » by Steve Nesius - AP

The Gatemaster salutes his legions

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I usually don't touch the topic of attendance. DRB's own Steve Slowinski does as good a job breaking down attendance as anyone I've seen. However, a discussion occurred during the winter meeting threads regarding the impact a premium starter like Roy Halladay would have on attendance in the Tampa Bay market. Did the starting pitcher on any given day have a a dramatic impact on attendance? This will not be overly scientific. However, I believe this data shows that variables such as day/night game, tchotchkes, free concerts, and weekend games all have a far greater impact on attendance than the home team starting pitcher in this market.

The one variable I did adjust for was the visiting team. I compared each individual start to the average Trop attendance per the visiting team in 2009. My hope is that the advantage of concerts, weekend games and night games would somewhat balance out over the season. For example, if games against the visiting Yankees at the Trop average 30,000, and David Price's home start vs the Yanks drew 28,000, a deficit of 2,000 would be recorded. Onto the data:

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by Duane Burleson - AP

Kyle Phillips can make right-handed pitchers feel a bit uneasy.

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With the departure of Gregg Zaun, it appears the Rays are ready to have Kelly Shoppach catch 120 games or so in 2010.While Shoppach qualifies as serviceable vs right-handed pitching, he excels versus lefties. This should leave the Rays looking for a catcher who can hit from the left side of the dish or at least one has shown the ability to hit either hand adequately. What options are out there? Let's break them down into two categories: internal and external options.

Internal Options

Jose Lobaton

Lobaton is a switch-hitting catcher who was claimed off waivers from the Padres when he was designated for assignment upon acquiring Sean Gallagher from Oakland. The Rays thought enough of Lobaton to keep five catchers on the 40 man roster. The 25 year-old Venezuelan was initially signed as an amateur free agent by the Padres in 2002. Prior to being claimed by the Rays, Lobaton was named the best defensive catcher in the Padres farm system consecutive years. We can probably assume he would at least not be a liability behind the plate.

As for the stick, Lobaton had a brief hiccup at AAA in 2008 with the Padres with a slash of .241/.292/.353 in 148 PA. At all previous levels Lobaton displayed good on-base skills consistently walking comfortably over 10% of the time. Upon being claimed by the Rays he was sent to AA Montgomery where he had a nice line of .262/.376/.452. The previous year in AA he OPSed  .760.

The key with Lobaton is he shows much better from the left side of the plate. If we isolate his LHB vs RHP appearances his numbers look like this over the past three years.

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Last week  we took a look at one position the Rays are in desparate need of help: Catcher. This week we're looking at what are likely the easiest Rule Five players to hide, pitchers. 

First, a word on selection process. I certainly do not consider myself a scout in any matter, not regarding Ben Zobrist nor Nevin Ashley.  Most of these players I knew very little about prior to the mining process. I reviewed a fanpost on Sickel's blog, where fans were encouraged to mention their team's most prominent unprotected Rule Five players. I then combed the list looking primarily at strikeouts, walks, and groundballs.  Once I narrowed the list down to 10, I turned it over to the scouts or fans of the team for a report on the player's stuff. Please note the table below does not include pitchers who have stuff who have failed to put it together yet. Its a glaring omission, but I am not qualified to make that sort of assessment.

 Age is based on the player's age today. Level represents where they spent the majority of 2009. K and BB% are based on relief except for those who are listed as starters.

Ben Snyder's #'s except for tRA are based solely vs LHB as he appears to be headed towards a career as a LOOGY.

MLE FIP represents their Major League Equivalent FIPas found on minorleaguesplits.

All stats courtesy of statcorner and minorleaguesplits

Craig Baker

Baker was selected in the 4th round of the 2006 draft by the Rockies. He was dominant out of the bullpen for the Rockies in A ball (2008) and in the closer role in A+ (2009).  In 2009, Baseball America named him Class A+'s Best Reliever and owner of the best Breaking Pitch. Per the Modesto Bee:

Nuts' manager Jerry Weinsteindidn't seem surprised that Baker has set the record with 23 games left to play.

"A closer usually has power stuff, and perhaps one or two dominant pitches," Weinstein said. " Craig has three of 'em — curve, slider and fastball. He has a history of being a starter, but he moved to the bullpen after he was drafted."

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As R.J. posted yesterday, Fangraphs has setup community projection availability to registered users (FREE). It's a tool definitely worth registering for. I thought this would be a good place to discuss how our individual projections came out on Rays and other notables. 

More photos » by Alex Brandon - AP

Jesus Flores- The Lone Rule 5 Survivor

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In the absence of any big moves, the Rays have two glaring needs to address in the off-season, the catcher position andthe bullpen. Over the next two weeks, we will take a look at some potential Rule 5 diamonds in the rough that could perhaps help out in 2009 be hidden behindthe abundance of versatile depthin the hopes of future returns beyond 2009.  This week we will take a look at a pair of available catchers who may be of interest.

First, lets put things in perspective. It is very difficult to find a player, particularly a catcher, in the rule 5 draft andhave them survive the season on the 25-man roster. Earlier this week, R.J. Anderson provided a list of rule 5 catchers selected in the past decade. I added some color to this list with their level, OBP, and SLG from the season prior to each player's selection:

Notes:

-Palmisano put up good offensive numbers at every level of the minors he played. He failed to stick with the Astros, was offered back to Brewers who declined, and then refused assignment from the Astros. He played independent baseball in 2009 with the Pensacola Pelicans. Palmisano was between a rock anda hard place buried behind catching prospects J.R. Towles with Houston and Jonathan LuCroy with Milwaukee. I have no idea how his defense plays, but his offense isn't something to immediately discard for a catcher.

-Skeltonfailed to stick to the 25-man but a deal was worked out for the Diamondbacks to keep him. He struggled in a 239 AA plate appearances in 2009 with a slash of .182/.341/.248 despite an awesome 19.5% BB%.

-Flores was able to make the leap with the Nationals in 2007 directly from A+ ball. In 197 PA, he posted a slash of .244/.310/.361.

Now that there is an understanding of how difficult it would be for a player to stick, let's see which players could possibly be of interest to the Rays. :

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