SB Nation User Blog: FreeZorilla

BA's Top 10 Rays Prospects for 2010

FreeZorilla — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 16:59:30 -0000

BA's Top 10 Rays Prospects for 2010

Wade Davis for 2013 closer, that is all.

Zaun Owns All in the Dirt

FreeZorilla — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 14:18:23 -0000

Zaun Owns All in the Dirt

Catcher Blocked Ball % and Run Values from Dan Turkenkopf of BTBS.

Zaun leads all while Shoppach is at the other end, a difference of about 1.5 wins.

Awesome Pitch F/x Spray Chart Tool

FreeZorilla — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 14:56:33 -0000

Awesome Pitch F/x Spray Chart Tool

You can create spray charts by hitter or pitcher with optional variables including handedness and/or pitch type. Currently it displays whether the ball was a hit or out. This may be old news but its the first I've seen of it.

Catch-22: What to do with Dioner Navarro?

FreeZorilla — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 01:33:23 -0000

More photos » by Reinhold Matay - AP

Does Navi fit into the current roster construction of the Rays?

Browse more photos »

In 2009, the catcher slot represented a hole in the Rays line up more glaring than the sun. Unlikely 2008 All-Star Dioner Navarro took a rather nasty statistical nose dive, leaving the Front Office little choice but to use their Z-game in acquiring 38 year-old Gregg Zaun for minor league first-baseman Rhyne Hughes. Zaun provided exactly what R.J. expected when he called for the Rays to look into Zaunover a month before the trade occurred. Zaun and Navi afforded the Rays a pair of complementary switch-hitters. Zaun fares slightly better versus right-handed pitching while Navi has a much wider gap between his splits in favor of facing southpaws.

Catchers who can hit lefties are a-dime-a-dozen as all catchers field right-handed. One of the main reason catchers are routinely criticized as poor hitters is because in 2009 70.5% of American League plate appearances came against right-handed pitching. This places left-handed hitting or good switch-hitting catchers at a premium as they have favorable platoon splits far more often than their right-handed counterparts.

Heading into the off-season, many expected the Rays to try to keep Zaun aroundfor a year while replacing Navarro. The thinking was that both catchers would cost $2-3 million and perhaps a cheaper alternative could be found for Navarro since Zaun has a more favorable match-up 29.5% of the time. Two potential roadblocks to this plan were Zaun's increasing age, and a compensatory 2nd round pick awarded to the Rays if another team was to sign Zaun due to his Type B free agent status.

As often is the case, the Rays Front Office strikes hard, silently and when least expected. With all eyes patiently looking ahead to the Winter Meetings, Andrew Friedman sensed opportunity. The rebuilding Cleveland Indians had a surplus of catchers. The right-handed Kelly Shoppach made $1,950,000 andwas due for a raise in arbitration. Behind Shoppach were 3 young catchers, prospects Lou Marson and Carlos Santana along with Wyatt Toregas. Shoppach would be too expensive for the Indians by the time they were to be competitive again, so he was a prime candidate to be non-tendered. Friedman sensed this and agreed to move a Player to Be Named Later for Shoppach. We now know through MLB.com that the player will either be AAA pitcher Mitch Talbot who is out of options or Joe Cruz who pitched in A- ball last year. Talbot, if healthy, should be able to handily crack the Cleveland rotation, whereas the Rays would probably been forced to pawn him off in a fire sale in Spring Training. It was a win-win as neither team had much leverage and succeeded in addressing a weakness from a position of excess strength.

Shoppach is a powerful right-hander who strikes out a lot but has decent on base-skills. His career splits trend much like Navi's, highly successful vs. LHP with a big drop-off vs. righties. However, Shoppach fares better than Navarro from both sides of the plate. Their career platoon splits can be found below:

	vs RHP		vs LHP
	OBP	SLG	OBP	SLG
Navi	0.302	0.339	0.336	0.434
Shoppach	0.308	0.396	0.386	0.614

We often discuss how the catching spot is one of a natural platoon. Teams are forced to take up two roster spots, so why not try to make some chemistry magic by playing off their strengths? The thought of signing Gregg Zaun began to look more attractive. Shoppach was adequate enough against RHP to reduce Zaun's workload. He could handle the 50 or so starts vs LHP and take on an additional 50-60 starts against RHP, while the elder Zaun would provide excellent ball-blocking skills and steady offense in the remaining 50-60 games vs. RHP. This option went out the door when the Brewers signed Zaun for $2.1 million giving the Rays the extra pick in next year's draft.

At this point it was widely assumed Navarro was a dead man walking in Tampa Bay. I penned a column looking at cheap in-house and external replacements in the minors who had wide splits in favor of facing RHP. We watched the days go by at the Winter Meetings waiting for a Navarro trade for the best available compensation. As the Saturday night deadline approached, there was a growing sense that Navarro would be non-tendered if he could not be moved. In 2009, Dioner Navarro andthe Rays had a bloody arbitration battle over a mere $400,000 with the Rays emerging victorious. Those are the types of battles that needlessly occur when you are represented by an agent who would tweet the following:

@kendallalmerico Here’s a shocker. Navarro starts, Rays win again. Talk stats all you want, but team chemistry = wins. And wins are what matters.

@kendallalmerico Rays now 5-7 with Zaunstarting, 5-2 with Navi behind the plate. I guess Joe Maddon wants October off this year.

@kendallalmericoSince acquiring 143 year old Geoff Zaun…Rays 5-6 with Zaunstarting at catcher, 4-2 with Navi starting. Hmmmm…let’s do the math

Andrew Friedman moves against the grain. Navarro had little to no leverage in negotiations given his gnatty agent, his putrid 2009, and the fact that teams had been filling voids at catcher all week. He accepted a one-year deal at the same salary as the previous season, $2.1 million. Why would Friedman do this given the apparent lack of synergies between Shoppach and Navi?

There are a few schools of thought. Conventional wisdom dictates the team needs an "experienced" backstop on the pine in the event of injury. Navarro is already familiar with the pitching staff and certainly that carries some value. While Navarro is almost certainly not as good as his 2008 slash line of .295/.349/.407, he is also not as bad as 2009's .218/.261/.222. For a reference point his career line is .253/.312/.367. An avenue of thought is that Navarro will rebound, thereby increasing his value and becoming an attractively priced trade target down the road.

Given Shoppach and Navi's career splits and assuming Shoppach catches about 120 games, how is the playing time best broken up using their career splits? Let's assume there are 120 games vs RHP and 40 vs LHP.

Method A= Shoppach faces all RHP and Navarro faces all LHP

Method B= Shoppach faces 80 RHP and 40 LHP, Navi gaces 40 RHP

	OBP	SLG	OPS
Method A	0.315	0.406	0.721
Method B	0.326	0.436	0.762

It seems as though overall team performance is best utilized when Navarro plays exclusively vs. RHP. Given Navi's deep career splits, I question whether this will allow him to raise his value at all. It would be akin to platooning Gabe Gross with a better hitting lefty who also struggled vs LHP. Gross would have to face lefties nearly all the time to maximize team value and his individual offensive numbers would be awful. If you don't do it in right field, why pay $2.1 million to do it at catcher?

I took a look at all catchers who had 150 PA in 2009 and looked at their career splits. I then broke the list into two, those with over 1000 career PA, and those with less. I also included each player's 2009 salary and his 2009 Defensive Runs Above Average as put together by devilfingers on drivelinemechanics.com:

Catchers > 1000 Career PA

Name	TotalPA	RHPOPS	LHPOPS	DefRAA	09 salary
Joe Mauer	2994	0.948	0.781	4.3	$10,500,000
Brian McCann	2372	0.892	0.761	-3	$3,666,667
Jorge Posada	6312	0.852	0.877	-5.9	$13,100,000
Victor Martinez	3686	0.847	0.816	-0.6	$5,900,000
Mike Napoli	1294	0.832	0.909	-9.7	$2,000,000
Ivan Rodriguez	9712	0.794	0.846	0.5	$1,500,000
Geovany Soto	1039	0.794	0.841	0.7	$575,000
Ryan Doumit	1483	0.786	0.758	-2	$2,150,000
A.J. Pierzynski	4704	0.781	0.661	-4.8	$6,250,000
Chris Iannetta	1084	0.767	0.930	2	$415,000
Jason Varitek	5464	0.759	0.828	-4.1	$5,000,000
David Ross	1458	0.754	0.769	7	$1,400,000
Kurt Suzuki	1450	0.744	0.778	0.9	$410,000
Jason Kendall	8212	0.744	0.682	-4.5	$5,000,000
Russell Martin	2326	0.743	0.880	-3.3	$3,900,000
Gregg Zaun	3925	0.733	0.730	-0.2	$1,500,000
Ramon Hernandez	4770	0.729	0.780	3.3	$8,500,000
Kenji Johjima	1722	0.725	0.710	8.8	$8,000,000
Brian Schneider	3186	0.716	0.620	3.5	$4,900,000
Carlos Ruiz	1259	0.712	0.728	5.4	$475,000
Ramon Castro	1400	0.707	0.773	-1.6	$2,625,000
Kelly Shoppach	1043	0.704	1.000	-1.5	$1,950,000
Josh Bard	1769	0.695	0.771	-7.3	$600,000
Bengie Molina	4743	0.691	0.813	-3.4	$6,000,000
Chris Snyder	1682	0.689	0.822	-3	$3,000,000
John Buck	2116	0.687	0.749	-4.8	$2,900,000
Rod Barajas	2746	0.684	0.714	4.2	$2,500,000
Yorvit Torrealba	1987	0.680	0.777	-2.9	$3,750,000
Yadier Molina	2458	0.672	0.741	6.6	$3,312,500
Ronny Paulino	1376	0.652	0.877	2.5	$440,000
Miguel Olivo	2631	0.651	0.824	-8.8	$2,700,000
Dioner Navarro	1822	0.641	0.770	0.4	$2,100,000
Gerald Laird	1826	0.633	0.776	13.3	$2,800,000
Henry Blanco	2614	0.626	0.739	5.7	$750,000
Jose Molina	1587	0.571	0.690	-1.1	$2,150,000

Of the 35 catchers with >1000 career plate appearances, Navi has the 4th worst OPS vs RHP. You'll note 2 of the 3 names below him are worth a win and 1.3 wins more defensively. Navi has little value vs. RHP and is about average defensively. If the Rays are to settle for a below average hitter, a defensive stud would seem to make more sense, especially since most of the marketplace discounts defense at the catcher spot.

For the catchers with less than 1000 PAs, we have to take their splits with a larger grain of salt, though RHP is the more reliable number. Park-Adjusted AAA OPS vs RHPis included for reference point for the minor league alternatives in my previous article, with a minimum 150 PA required in a AAA season.

Catches < 1000 Career PA

Name	TotalPA	RHPOPS	paAAA	LHPOPS	DefRAA
Landon Powell	155	0.829	0.735	0.458	2.4
John Baker	656	0.815	0.820	0.630	-3.2
Matt Wieters	385	0.804	1.017	0.695	2.5
Miguel Montero	938	0.773	1.020	0.792	-6.5
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	869	0.768	N/A	0.588	-0.3
Taylor Teagarden	271	0.721	0.770	0.841	2.4
Nick Hundley	505	0.719	0.824	0.593	-6.8
Chris Coste	885	0.713	0.494	0.821	-0.2
Ryan Hanigan	402	0.712	0.794	0.680	7
Jason Jaramillo	224	0.701	0.795	0.511	0.1
Omir Santos	316	0.700	0.625	0.616	2.4
Rob Johnson	325	0.636	0.878	0.490	-1.8
Brayan Pena	314	0.595	0.742	0.648	-2.9
Koyie Hill	543	0.580	0.812	0.627	6.1
Raul Chavez	725	0.576	0.563	0.555	4.4
Jeff Mathis	861	0.573	0.587	0.663	-2.1
Wil Nieves	597	0.569	0.629	0.589	-0.3
Humberto Quintero	589	0.555	0.942	0.732	1.7

There is no guarantee AAA success vs RHP will translate to the major leagues. We don't know that a John Jaso or Jose Lobaton will be able to provide a Navarro-level of success against RHP. However with two birds in the bush, the chance of one of them landing in the hand is a bit better.

Navi would almost be better suited to scrap the switch-hitting and work solely from the right side of the plate. Barring an unexpected offensive breakthrough, Navarro will be best utilized as a career backup to a catcher who hits well against RHP. Navarro can play predominantly against lefties and make fairly valuable contributions. For a team with that makeup, $2.1 million is a pretty attractive price in this marketplace. If Navarro had been traded prior to reaching the deal, the acquiring team would almost certainly be paying closer to the $3-3.5 million being earned by the likes of John Buck, Pudge, and Jason Kendall. As a counterpart to Shoppach, the return falls short even with the discounted contract. My hope is that Friedman can find the right place for Navi to succeed andreceive something back of greater value back than he would have received witht he contract uncertainty associated with the arbitration process.

Barbarians at the Gate: The Effect of Starting Pitching Matchups on Attendance

FreeZorilla — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 18:10:19 -0000

More photos » by Steve Nesius - AP

The Gatemaster salutes his legions

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I usually don't touch the topic of attendance. DRB's own Steve Slowinski does as good a job breaking down attendance as anyone I've seen. However, a discussion occurred during the winter meeting threads regarding the impact a premium starter like Roy Halladay would have on attendance in the Tampa Bay market. Did the starting pitcher on any given day have a a dramatic impact on attendance? This will not be overly scientific. However, I believe this data shows that variables such as day/night game, tchotchkes, free concerts, and weekend games all have a far greater impact on attendance than the home team starting pitcher in this market.

The one variable I did adjust for was the visiting team. I compared each individual start to the average Trop attendance per the visiting team in 2009. My hope is that the advantage of concerts, weekend games and night games would somewhat balance out over the season. For example, if games against the visiting Yankees at the Trop average 30,000, and David Price's home start vs the Yanks drew 28,000, a deficit of 2,000 would be recorded. Onto the data:

	Starts	Deficit/Surplus	Avg Deficit/Surplus Per Start
David Price	12	14,083	1,173.6
Matt Garza	17	18,617	1,095.1
Scott Kazmir	11	9,116	828.7
James Shields	18	-10,958	-608.8
Jeff Niemann	12	-12,455	-1,037.9
Wade Davis	4	-4,679	-1,169.8
Andy Sonnanstine	7	-13,730	-1,961.4

Poor Wade Davis. He had no chance as his starts were compared against averages that included games from before the Rays fell out of contention. Similarly, Kazmir did not have to make late season starts after the Rays were eliminated. Its a little surprising James Shields ran a deficit as he has been the Rays' best pitcher for some time now. Regardless, the worst-to-first attendance against the mean ran a net of about 3,000 additional fans, or less than 10% stadium capacity. If the Rays were to add a premium starter, its safe to say it would be for far better reasons than aspiring for an increased gate. The economics of paying for Halladay simply don't approach the added salary cost.

Just for laughs, among other things, I decided to look at how attendance varied based upon "popularity" of the opposing pitcher. The most neutral definition I could muster was "all-star." While it does not mean much in terms of true talent, those are the names the mainstream fans are most likely to recognize and desire to see. 24 of 81 home games in 2009 featured an opposing starting pitcher who has made at least one all-star team in his career. Again, this does not take into account things like concert nights and day games, but the hope is over those 24 games it will balance out fairly evenly. I compared each opposing starter's attendance drawn to the average his team drew at the Trop in 2009. Below are the results

All-Star Aggregate	607,980
Team Average Aggregate	604,733
Attendance Increase/Gm	135.29

I was slightly surprised to see such little effect. After all, you have many chances to see your own ace each season, but a Zack Greinke comes along once a year at best. The data shows a good indication that the novelty of an ace pitcher will not alone bring in considerably higher gates. The true attendance barometer will be total team record. A first place Sonnanstine start versus Ryan Rowland-Smith should be expected to outdraw a 3rd place Shields - Felix Hernandez battle, all other things equal.

Catcher Alternatives from the Left Side

FreeZorilla — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 13:06:29 -0000

by Duane Burleson - AP

Kyle Phillips can make right-handed pitchers feel a bit uneasy.

View full size photo »

With the departure of Gregg Zaun, it appears the Rays are ready to have Kelly Shoppach catch 120 games or so in 2010.While Shoppach qualifies as serviceable vs right-handed pitching, he excels versus lefties. This should leave the Rays looking for a catcher who can hit from the left side of the dish or at least one has shown the ability to hit either hand adequately. What options are out there? Let's break them down into two categories: internal and external options.

Internal Options

Jose Lobaton

Lobaton is a switch-hitting catcher who was claimed off waivers from the Padres when he was designated for assignment upon acquiring Sean Gallagher from Oakland. The Rays thought enough of Lobaton to keep five catchers on the 40 man roster. The 25 year-old Venezuelan was initially signed as an amateur free agent by the Padres in 2002. Prior to being claimed by the Rays, Lobaton was named the best defensive catcher in the Padres farm system consecutive years. We can probably assume he would at least not be a liability behind the plate.

As for the stick, Lobaton had a brief hiccup at AAA in 2008 with the Padres with a slash of .241/.292/.353 in 148 PA. At all previous levels Lobaton displayed good on-base skills consistently walking comfortably over 10% of the time. Upon being claimed by the Rays he was sent to AA Montgomery where he had a nice line of .262/.376/.452. The previous year in AA he OPSed .760.

The key with Lobaton is he shows much better from the left side of the plate. If we isolate his LHB vs RHP appearances his numbers look like this over the past three years.

Year	Level	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	ISO	BB%	K%
2007	A+	314	0.269	0.354	0.432	0.163	11.5%	22.6%
2008	AA	287	0.271	0.347	0.457	0.186	11.2%	22.7%
2009	AA	87	0.280	0.360	0.493	0.213	10.3%	19.5%
2009	AAA	107	0.284	0.352	0.432	0.148	9.4%	20.6%

John Jaso

Jaso is a 26 year-old left-handed hitting catcher who was rapidly on the rise through the Rays farm system after being selected in the 12th round of the draft in 2003 by the Rays out of high school. He was added to the 40 man roster prior the the 2007 rule five draft. The biggest roadblock for Jaso has been his defense. However, he did have his worst offensive year at the plate in 2009. If there is to be a time for Jaso, in the organization, there probably won't be a better opportunity than now. Jaso has displayed decent power and excellent on-base skills throughout the minors with his BB:K ratio floating around one, always excellent for a double digit walker. He also does not find himself crippled by the sight of a lefty on the mound with a career OBP of .360 vs LHP. Jaso's #'s vs RHP splits can be found below:

Year	Level	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	ISO	BB%	K%
2007	AA	317	0.311	0.408	0.489	0.178	13.9%	11.7%
2008	AA	280	0.267	0.398	0.409	0.142	17.5%	9.6%
2008	AAA	78	0.278	0.333	0.514	0.236	7.7%	9.0%
2009	AAA	307	0.261	0.358	0.364	0.103	11.7%	12.4%

External Options from the Minors

Luke Carlin

Carlin has had a long and winding road in professional baseball that has resulted in a couple cups of coffee in the bigs the past two seasons totaling about 100 PA. Originally drafted by the Tigers in the 10th round out of Northeastern in 2002, he was granteda quick release in 2003. He caught on with the Padres immediately and played in their organization for 6 years. He signed with Arizona in 2009 as a minor league free agent. Carlin did very little with the bat until 2008, essentially his 3rd full season in AAA. However in back to back years he has now posted OPSes of .828 and .911. Carlin is another switch-hitter who has fared better from the left.

As for the defensive book, the consensus say defense is his bread and butter. Scout.com had this to say in 2007:

2006 Defense (Triple-A Portland): .991 Fielding Percentage was second among all catchers in the Pacific Coast League. He caught 36% of runners attempting to steal (24 of 66). Carlin is like a brick wall behind the plate. His part-time catching role in Portland was sometimes staggered however Carlin performed with unwavering consistency. The 26 year-old calls a good game and challenges hitters and pitchers alike by calling for pitches on the inside portion of the plate. Carlin's pick-off move to first has seen a lot of improvement.

Carlin is either rule five eligible or a minor league free agent after being outrighted to AAA on December 3rd, depending on whether he accepts the assignment. I'm sure the consensus is he is a AAAA player based on his age of 29 years, but given the relative lack of an opportunity cost, he could be worth a ST look to an open-minded organization. Below are his splits over the past 3 years vs. RHP. At the least, he is a good defensive, poor hitting catcher who is willing to draw walks when given the chance.

Year	Level	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	ISO	BB%	K%
2007	AAA	239	0.243	0.357	0.337	0.094	15.1%	24.3%
2008	AAA	90	0.296	0.433	0.507	0.211	17.8%	23.3%
2009	AAA	202	0.345	0.448	0.53	0.185	15.4%	19.8%

Kyle Phillips

Phillips was drafted out of high school by the Twins in the 10th round of the 2002 draft. After spending 4 years with the Twins, he would spend 1 with the Brewers before finding a home in the Blue Jays organization in 2007. Like Jaso, the big question on Phillips is his defense. What the left-handed hitter has done consistently with the Blue Jays is murder right-handed pitching. Phillips is just 25, if his defense is better than subjectively advertised, he will have a future in the bigs. He was outrighted to AAA, and will be exposed in the Rule Five draft. His numbers vs. RHP are below.

Year	Level	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	ISO	BB%	K%
2007	A+	342	0.329	0.372	0.453	0.124	7.0%	9.9%
2008	AA	246	0.326	0.398	0.472	0.146	10.2%	12.2%
2009	AAA	239	0.346	0.413	0.49	0.144	8.8%	13.0%

The Rays are in pretty good hands with Shoppach behind the dish, it is not worth giving up a key trading chip for a catcher who will play 40-50 games when there are freely available players within and outside of the system who have yet to be given a shot, and who would be less expensive than a veteran. Let's get three of these guys into camp and let the strong man survive.

Potential Rule Five Relievers

FreeZorilla — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 17:38:05 -0000

Last week we took a look at one position the Rays are in desparate need of help: Catcher. This week we're looking at what are likely the easiest Rule Five players to hide, pitchers.

First, a word on selection process. I certainly do not consider myself a scout in any matter, not regarding Ben Zobrist nor Nevin Ashley. Most of these players I knew very little about prior to the mining process. I reviewed a fanpost on Sickel's blog, where fans were encouraged to mention their team's most prominent unprotected Rule Five players. I then combed the list looking primarily at strikeouts, walks, and groundballs. Once I narrowed the list down to 10, I turned it over to the scouts or fans of the team for a report on the player's stuff. Please note the table below does not include pitchers who have stuff who have failed to put it together yet. Its a glaring omission, but I am not qualified to make that sort of assessment.

	Team	Age	Level	K%	BB%	GB%	tRA	MLE FIP
Craig Baker	COL	24	A+	29%	8%	50%	3.25	3.17
Josh Wilkie	WAS	25	AA	19%	6%	50%	2.56	3.38
Steven Wright	CLE	25	AA	22%	5%	44%	2.91	3.49
Disco Hayes	KC	26	AAA	11%	3%	50%	4.39	3.76
Ben Snyder	SF	24	AA	32%	5%	33%	4.15*	4.13	LOOGY
Yohan Pino	CLE	23	AAA	26%	7%	36%	3.27	4.24	Starter
Client Everts	WAS	25	AA	26%	9%	55%	3.22	4.29
Neil Wagner	CLE	25	AA	26%	12%	53%	3.51	4.71
Carlton Smith	CLE	23	AA	12%	7%	60%	4.32	5.3
Steve Johnson	BAL	22	AA	24%	11%	31%	3.61	6.24	Starter

Age is based on the player's age today. Level represents where they spent the majority of 2009. K and BB% are based on relief except for those who are listed as starters.

Ben Snyder's #'s except for tRA are based solely vs LHB as he appears to be headed towards a career as a LOOGY.

MLE FIP represents their Major League Equivalent FIPas found on minorleaguesplits.

All stats courtesy of statcorner and minorleaguesplits

Craig Baker

Baker was selected in the 4th round of the 2006 draft by the Rockies. He was dominant out of the bullpen for the Rockies in A ball (2008) and in the closer role in A+ (2009). In 2009, Baseball America named him Class A+'s Best Reliever and owner of the best Breaking Pitch. Per the Modesto Bee:

Nuts' manager Jerry Weinsteindidn't seem surprised that Baker has set the record with 23 games left to play.

"A closer usually has power stuff, and perhaps one or two dominant pitches," Weinstein said. " Craig has three of 'em — curve, slider and fastball. He has a history of being a starter, but he moved to the bullpen after he was drafted."

Josh Wilkie

Wilkie was signed as an undrafted free agent by the Nationals out of George Washington University in 2006. He climbed through the Nationals organization one level at a time and received a 2009 mid-season promotion to AAA, where he struck out 25 with 4 walks in 22.1 IP. Wilkie was in the national spotlight in the AFL and most likely will be a Rule Five selection. The Washington Post recently had a feature on Wilkie:

"His stuff is marginal minus his change-up, which is a plus major league pitch," said Paul Menhart, the pitching coach at Potomac and the Nationals' representative in Phoenix this fall. "It's a pitch that has really just allowed him to get easy outs throughout every level. He's a guy that is a legitimate option for the big leagues next year."

Told of Menhart's assessment, Wilkieresponds with enthusiasm -- "Boy, I hope that it's true" -- and continues to talk about his change-up. This is one of those topics he loves to pursue.

"The change-up has been my best pitch," said Wilkie, who also worked on a cutter while in Arizona. "It's harder than most andit has kind of a split-finger action, it falls, pretty much dives down a little bit, and comes off the hand looking like a fastball. So it's a really deceptive pitch. Instead of the curveball, which hitters can pick up pretty much right when you're throwing it, it'smore of a deception pitch. I've got a good feel with it. My hands are pretty big for my size, so I've been lucky as far as that goes."

Steven Wright

Steven Wright was selected in the 2nd round of the 2006 draft. He was one of a number of pitchers in AAA for the Indians who made a 2009 conversion to the bullpen. Wright has had split seasons since 2007, always resulting in much better repeat level performances during the first half of the year. Here is a profile of Wright from indiansprospectinsider.com:

Strengths & Opportunities:Wright throws a fastball that consistently clocks in at 89-91 MPH and has topped out at 93 MPH. In addition to the fastball he also throws a curveball, slider and changeup, with the best pitch in his arsenal the slider that grades out as a plus pitch. He has always had confidence in his slider, but he is starting to gain a lot more confidence in his curveball and starting to believe he can throw it in any count. He also has very good makeup.

Chris "Disco" Hayes

Disco was signed in March of 2006 as an undrafted free agent out of Northwestern University. Late in his career at Northwestern Hayes converted to an extreme submariner. His nickname is derived from his velocity matching the era of mirror balls and bell-bottom jeans. Longtime Royals fans have embraced him the same way they rallied around legendary closer Dab Quisenberry. Critics have doubted him from day 1, but slowly he's picked up some believers at each stop along the way to AAA. Hayes is a classic case of scouts vs. sabermetricians. Scouts doubt he has the stuff to make it to the majors, while the numbers guys think he could succeed, with the proof lying in his unlikely successes at each stop along the way. Hayes actually has a very intelligent blog and is one of the few sabermetrically inclined players to emerge thus far. This particular post shows the intelligence of Hayes as he examines his shortcomings of the second half of 2009:

If these hits had left the bat at a downward trajectory, they would almost certainly be ground-outs as, typically, only very hard hit andwell-placed groundballs get through for hits (though, again in my defense, in my last two outings I have given up three chopped infield hits). So, it seems I need to get more ground balls. But last year, when I had a 1.64 ERA and a BABIP of .235, my GO/AO was 1.57. This year in Triple-A it's 1.5. As a submarining sinker-baller, you'd perhaps expect higher numbers, but my slider is more of a pop-up pitch because, in comparison to my sinking fastball it appears to float and guys typically hit it in the air. As a quick example, in my recent outing in Tacoma, I recorded 4 "air outs" and three of them were soft flies to the short stop off of my slider. I haven't had many air outs where the outfielder has tracked the ball to the wall and made a great catch.

Ben Snyder

Snyder is a big lefty who was selected in the 4th round of the 2006 draft by the Indians out of Ball State Unviersity. The 2009 season marked the first in which Snyder worked primarily from the pen. With an acceptable 4.32 FIP vs RHB, it is the stellar numbers versus lefties that lead me to believe his future could be as a LOOGY. Snyder has been dazzling at AA against lefties, striking out roughly a third while walking just 5%. In 2008, the San Jose Giants Baseball Club had this to say about Snyder's stuff:

Snyder, a left-handed starting pitcher, enjoyed a tremendous year with Augusta a season ago. The former fourth round draft pick went 16-5 with a spectacular 2.09 ERA – second-lowest in the league. Snyder isn’t a particularly hard thrower (high 80’s fastball), but owns a stellar change-up and pinpoint control (32 BB and 145 SO over 151 innings last season). Baseball America projects that Snyder could move through the Giants minor league system quickly, but that he should open the season in San Jose.

Yohan Pino

Pino was the player to be named later Cleveland acquired in the Carl Pavano trade last season. He had been considered one of the Twins' better pitching prospects early in his career, but endured a minor hiccup at AA, which included a foot injury, but rebounded strong in 2009, even making 10 starts at AAA. Here is a scouting report from a scout.com profile on Pino:

Repetoire:Fastball, Curveball, Slider

Fastball: Pinodoes not overwhelm batters with his fastball, but he does have the ability to spot it wherever he wants. His fastball sits in the mid-to-high 80s, and he uses it to set up some great off-speed stuff. While his fastball is not a putawaypitch, it does seem faster when mixed in with the rest of his arsenal.

Other Pitches:Pino has a great curveball and slider, and it is used to rack up strikeouts. A pitcher who does not throw that hard is not supposed to have such a great strikeout to innings pitched ratio, but Pino knows his pitches, and uses them to their full potential. He has great command over his entire arsenal, and he is only going to get better as he begins to fill out his 6’3’’ frame.

Clint Everts

Everts was the 5th overall pick in the 2002 draft by the Expos. He would undergo Tommy John surger in the 2004 season. Having fully recovered and been transitioned into the bullpen, Everts progressed from A+ to AA to AAA. He was outstanding with a K/9 above 9 at all three levels, but did battle walks a bit at AAA . MLB recently posted this blurb:

Clint Everts, RHP (Washington):Everts, 25, finished the 2009 season withhis original team, though they were known as the Expos when they drafted the teenager with the lively fastball, killer curveball and advanced changeup withthe fifth overall pick in 2002 out of high school in Texas. Injuries (2004 Tommy John ligament-replacement surgery) and an eventual shift to the bullpen slowed that ascent, as '09 marked his debut above Class A. His combined efforts between Advanced-A Potomac, Double-A Harrisburg andTriple-A Syracuse -- going 8-1 with a 1.65 ERA in 44 games in relief, striking out 68 in 60 innings and walking just 26 while limiting hitters to a .228 average -- should open eyes.

Neil Wagner

Wagner is coming off an impressive first full season in AA where he registered a K/9 of 10.18. Walks are definitely a concern, especially when jumping two levels. Per indiansprospectinsider from 2008:

The Indians drafted Wagner in the 21^stround of the 2005 Draft out of North Dakota State University. Wagner might be a sleeper, and someone to keep an eye on. In 2006 at Mahoning Valley, Wagner racked up 17 saves and posted a 1.39 ERA while holding opposing hitters to a .143 average and struck out 50 hitters in 32 innings. Wagner closed in college, andat this point it appears the Indians intend to develop him as a late inning reliever. Outside of Adam Miller, Wagner arguably has the most explosive fastball in the system that touches 96-98MPH consistently. He shows good control (2.24 BB/9 rate) andthe ability to put players away with his dominating fastball (10.50 K/9). While he controls his fastball well and can blow it by hitters, the key to him becoming a bonafiderelief prospect will be the development of at least one secondary pitch, which he has struggled with. Wagner was sent the Hawaii Winter League this offseason to primarily work on his two offspeed pitches, a breaking ball and changeup.

Carlton Smith

Carlton Smith was selected in the 24th round of the 2004 draft. He is the Jeremy Beckham to former #1 Indians prospect 3B Corey Smith. Smith throws with a lot of sinking action, so his defensive dependant numbers would improve with a good infield. Once again, per indiansprospectinsider.com:

Smith pounds the zone andpitches to contact withhis sinking fastball which hovers around 91-93 MPH andhas topped out as high as 95 MPH. He complements the fastball with an above average slider, split-finger, and is still working on developing a changeup

Steve Johnson

Steve Johnson was selected out of high school in the 13th round of the 2005 draft by the Dodgers. Johnson ranked as the Dodgers 15th best prospect prior to the 2009 season, during which he was shipped to the Orioles as part of the George Sherrill trade. Having worked primarily as a starter, he has the makeup of a potential rule five bullpen conversion. Many Orioles fans were disappointed they chose to protect former Ray Rhyne Hughes over Johnson.

Per bleacher report:

There's more to Johnson than just the impressive stats, though. While his stuff isn't as explosive as Jacobson's, his baseball intelligence is off the charts (thanks Dad!). He is widely known as one of the smartest pitchers around, and his desire to win is impressive.

In terms of stuff, the cupboard isn't thread-bare. Johnson compliments a low 90s fastball with a so-so curve and an average changeup. The pitch Johnson is working hard at developing, however, is a slider that made great strides this year.

Ask any scout and they'll project Johnson as back of the rotation starter at best, but most likely a long reliever. Interesting...

FG Rays Community Projection Open Thread

FreeZorilla — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 15:17:56 -0000

As R.J. posted yesterday, Fangraphs has setup community projection availability to registered users (FREE). It's a tool definitely worth registering for. I thought this would be a good place to discuss how our individual projections came out on Rays and other notables.

Catching Up on Rule 5 Catchers

FreeZorilla — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 17:53:12 -0000

In the absence of any big moves, the Rays have two glaring needs to address in the off-season, the catcher position andthe bullpen. Over the next two weeks, we will take a look at some potential Rule 5 diamonds in the rough that could perhaps help out in 2009 be hidden behindthe abundance of versatile depthin the hopes of future returns beyond 2009. This week we will take a look at a pair of available catchers who may be of interest.

First, lets put things in perspective. It is very difficult to find a player, particularly a catcher, in the rule 5 draft andhave them survive the season on the 25-man roster. Earlier this week, R.J. Anderson provided a list of rule 5 catchers selected in the past decade. I added some color to this list with their level, OBP, and SLG from the season prior to each player's selection:

Year	Catcher	Age	Level	OBP	SLG	Stick	Draft
2009	Lou Palmisano	26	AA	0.368	0.419	No	3rd '03
2009	James Skelton	24	AA	0.425	0.388	No	14th '04
2006	Jesus Flores	22	A+	0.335	0.482	Yes	AFA
2006	Adam Donachie	22	A+	0.375	0.467	No	2nd '02
2006	Ryan Budde	27	AAA	0.267	0.398	No	12th '01
2002	Ronny Paulino	21	A+	0.353	0.392	No	AFA 97

Notes:

-Palmisano put up good offensive numbers at every level of the minors he played. He failed to stick with the Astros, was offered back to Brewers who declined, and then refused assignment from the Astros. He played independent baseball in 2009 with the Pensacola Pelicans. Palmisano was between a rock anda hard place buried behind catching prospects J.R. Towles with Houston and Jonathan LuCroy with Milwaukee. I have no idea how his defense plays, but his offense isn't something to immediately discard for a catcher.

-Skeltonfailed to stick to the 25-man but a deal was worked out for the Diamondbacks to keep him. He struggled in a 239 AA plate appearances in 2009 with a slash of .182/.341/.248 despite an awesome 19.5% BB%.

-Flores was able to make the leap with the Nationals in 2007 directly from A+ ball. In 197 PA, he posted a slash of .244/.310/.361.

Now that there is an understanding of how difficult it would be for a player to stick, let's see which players could possibly be of interest to the Rays. :

	Age	Level	Bats	PA	BB%	K%	BA	OBP	SLG	ISO	Team
Anthony Recker	26	AAA	R	306	9.3%	29.4%	0.261	0.333	0.449	0.188	A's
Koby Clemens	23	A+	R	492	10.8%	25.8%	0.345	0.419	0.636	0.291	Astros

Koby Clemens Age 23 Astros

Its rare to find a player, let alone a catcher, who has just posted a 1.000 OPS in A+ available in a Rule 5 draft. Yet that'sexactly what Clemens did for the Astros farm team in 2009 with a slash of .345/.419/.636 and 22 home runs. The glaring weakness is his defense as he allowed 20 passed balls and threw out approximately 20% of base runners in 2009. Nonetheless the bat has to be intriguing, There's a good chance Clemens does not stick to catcher, but those offensive numbers play around the diamond. There is almost no chance he would catch for a major league club in 2009, but the Rays have two things going for them. Obviously offensive depth is not as important in the AL, and the Rays are blessed with a talented array of players who can perform at multiple positions.

Anthony Recker Age 26 Athletics

As our friends from the A's blog recently pointed out, the A's have a surplus of catching prospects on hand behind Kurt Suzuki. With Luke Donaldson and Landon Powell in the fold, Recker could be a player slipping through the cracks. Recker was originally an 18th round draft choice of Oakland in 2005 out of Alvernia College in Pennsylvania. Recker has put up solid offensive numbers as he worked his way through the A's system culminating in a AAA 2009 performance of .261/.333/.449. His glaring weakness has been his strikeout rate which has pretty consistently hovered around 30% throughout the minors. He makes the most of his swings as evidenced by a 2009 ISO of .188.

Towards the end of 2009, Dioner Navarro's primary role was to catch on the days when the Rays faced LHP. Offering arbitration to Navi could result in a hefty price tag for a catcher who would play 1/3 of the games. Recker has consistently posted wider splits relative to his overall numbers than is typical:

	vs LHP			vs RHP
	BA	OBP	SLG	BA	OBP	SLG
2008	0.34	0.396	0.536	0.255	0.332	0.408
2009	0.276	0.374	0.571	0.246	0.315	0.386

Based solely on his offensive game, it seems as though Reckerc ould be a much less costly option for Navarro's lesser used half of the platoon. It also would not come witht he opportunity cost associated with a trade. Jeff Bennett and Elliot Johnson are both currently occupying 40-man spots and most likely have little future with the MLB club.

It is a long shot that the organization would select a catcher in the Rule 5 draft, but Recker could be the best of the lot for immediate contribution while Clemens represent a chance to steal a potential big bat at no cost.

Tyler Bortnick Profile with interesting comments

FreeZorilla — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 22:29:41 -0000

Tyler Bortnick Profile with interesting comments

Bortnick had an impressive debut last year

Pay close attention to the comment section where Daniel Bortnick, Tyler's father makes an appearance.