Fangraphs

Michael "Mendoza" Martinez is not a good baseball player and if he ends up getting a lot of at bats in 2012, that means something has gone seriously wrong.

That said, there was a 25 game stretch last season during which Martinez hit .279/.333/.441 with a BABIP of just .315. But even with that "hot streak," he finished the season at .196/.252/.282 in 234 plate appearances. His BABIP on the season was .220, so maybe there is room for improvement. Plus, as Wilson Valdez's tenure here illustrated, a player who can field multiple positions competently can be at least a little bit useful. Most projections seem to think he will OPS between .600 and .640, which is basically what Valdez would have gotten you anyways.

That's all. It's impossible for me to justify to myself writing more than 150 words on this subject.

So much depends

upon

a right patella

tendon

not becoming

inflamed

and unbearably

painful.

***

Player Pages: Fangraphs, Baseball Reference

Poetic beauty, the Imagists believed, was in simplicity. Shirking Victorian conventions, the Imagists favored precision, concision, and a focus on the "thing." William Carlos Williams's "The Red Wheelbarrow" stands as the shining exemplar of this important poetic movement.

With respect to Chase Utley's (and, perhaps, the Phillies') prospects for the 2012 season, it really is that simple. If healthy, he's really, really good. If he's not, he's...well, not bad, just not "really, really good."

Utley's 2011 season was by no means bad, but by his own freakish standards it left something to be desired. Despite missing much of the season's first two months to a knee injury which by his own admission he was rushed back from, Utley managed to post 3.9 fWAR -- good enough to make him the second most valuable second baseman in the National League. But most of that value was produced in the first half of his season. After his OPS reached its peak of .884 on July 29, he managed just a .226/.305/.337 line for the rest of the season. His overall line finished at .259/.344/.425. Utley is well known for his ability to play through the myriad bumps and bruises that accrue over the course of the season, but it was obvious that the injury was affecting his play.

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2011 Stats:

57.0 IP

39 SO

24 BB

3.32 ERA

5.08 FIP

4.13 xFIP

3.92 SIERA

Player pages: Fangraphs, Baseball Reference

It should be no surprise to most loyal TGP readers that, considering my trenchant defense of the unduly unpopular Phillies reliever during the 2011 season, I would volunteer to write his player preview. In fact, most of what I have to say about Herndon I have already said in my series of posts on him. Just to recap: back in May when Herndon -- the Phillies' 2010 Rule 5 selection -- was at the nadir of his popularity, lugging around a hefty 9.28 ERA, I argued for a more measured approach. Yes, Herndon was struggling, but it was far too soon to label him a bum, I contended. Provided Herndon could raise his strikeout rate just a bit (something for which there was already some precedent) he could be a valuable bullpen piece.

And indeed, after a stint in AAA to, presumably, work on some things, Herndon came back and raised his K-rate and his ERA plummeted. It required no special analytical skills to arrive at the conclusion that Herndon was much better than his early results suggested. Just a quick look at his peripheral stats and a recognition that his bad luck on balls in play and flyballs was not sustainable was enough. By the end of the season, Herndon's ERA had actually dropped below his ERA estimators (FIP/xFIP/SIERA) thanks in large part to a bizarre 3.2 inning relief appearance in a 5-4 extra-inning loss to the Marlins. He logged 7 walks -- 5 of them intentional -- but only one earned run in that game.

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Ruben Amaro, who usually prefers to jump the market and make his signings before the dust settles, decided to play the waiting game with veteran shortstop Jimmy Rollins and the result was a team-friendly three-year, $33 million deal with a vesting option for a fourth year. As WholeCamels noted last week, there was something that just seemed wrong about Amaro suddenly deciding to play hardball with a homegrown player who has been a cornerstone of the franchise for the last decade while at the same time leading the market and overpaying "out-of-towners" like Papelbon and Ibanez. But it's hard to argue with the results, and maybe Amaro's success in dealing with Rollins will lead him to re-evaluate his strategy for approaching contract negotiations.

It's not as if the deal is terrible for Rollins -- at $11 million per season, he'll be getting a raise of $3 million per season -- but he didn't get the fifth year that he was reportedly seeking. Hell, he didn't even get a guaranteed fourth year (although according to Matt Gelb the vesting option is tied to plate appearances and innings, so if he's healthy, he'll be here in 2015).

From the very beginning, Amaro made it clear that he wouldn't budge on the fifth year, but he nevertheless maintained a dialogue with Rollins and his agent Dan Lozano. When there were reports during the Winter Meetings that both the Cardinals and the Brewers had interest in Rollins, Amaro didn't panic. Rather, he reportedly explored the possibility of bringing in third baseman Aramis Ramirez and moving Polanco. Whether Ramirez and a shortstop to be named later would have been better than Rollins and Polanco is not clear, but this seemed more like a bargaining ploy than a realistic plan in any case. When the Brewers gave Alex Gonzalez a one year deal and the Cardinals re-signed Rafael Furcal for two years, though, it was apparent that the market for Rollins's services had all but dried up. Amaro also deserves credit for passing on Michael Cuddyer, an inferior player who yesterday signed with the Colorado Rockies on a deal similar to Rollins's.

Assuming that the fourth year option vests, four years and $44 million would only require Rollins to post about 8 fWAR over the life of the deal. We can reasonably expect some decline over the next four years as he is entering his age 33 season, but consider that Rollins's worst season since 2002 came in 2010, when he missed 74 games, and he still managed to rack up 2.5 fWAR. He rebounded nicely in 2011 to post 3.8 fWAR. If Rollins can remain even just moderately healthy, he shouldn't have a problem outperforming this contract.

A good deal for a good player who for the past decade has been a ton of fun to watch. Win, win, win.

No, I'm not his mother or father. As far as I am aware, we share no recent ancestors. I've been reading the reaction to this admittedly peculiar choice, and I feel like I owe an explanation.

Next week, the BBWAA will reveal the winner of the 2011 NL MVP. If SB Nation's own voting for the award is any indication, Matt Kemp should win by a comfortable margin.

Kemp was awesome this year, and it's hard to dispute that he deserved the award. Kemp had plenty to offer both traditionalists--he took two of the three triple crown categories with 39 homers and 126 RBI (with a not too shabby .324 BA and 40 stolen bases to boot)--and the saber-inclined, with a .419 wOBA and 8.7 fWAR. Indeed, I would argue that outside of a top three of Kemp, Halladay (8.2 fWAR), and Ryan Braun (7.8 fWAR), a good case could be made for any arrangement of players for the next seven spots. 

Here is my full ballot: 

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Brad Lidge's spectacular (miraculous?) 2008 season rightly cemented his place in Phillies lore. After playing an integral role in lifting the Phillies to their second straight NL East pennant by going a perfect 41 for 41 in save opportunities during the regular season, Lidge carried the magic over to the postseason where he converted all seven of his chances. It was only appropriate that he was on the mound for the final three outs of game 5b of the World Series and it was only appropriate that he was singled out in Harry Kalas's iconic call after striking out Eric Hinske to seal it: 

The 0-2 pitch - swing and a miss, struck him out! The Philadelphia Phillies are 2008 World Champions of baseball! Brad Lidge does it again, and stays perfect for the 2008 season! 48-for-48 in save opportunities, and let the city celebrate!

The Phillies' acquisition of Lidge between the 2007 and 2008 can't be understood without first recalling the horror show that was the 2007 Phillies pitching staff. It's hard to fathom now considering the total metamorphosis of the starting rotation under Ruben Amaro, but in 2007 we saw the likes of Adam Eaton, J.D. "Real Deal" Durbin, and a broken Freddy Garcia log significant innings. If it can be believed, the bullpen was even worse. Going into the season, the pen included of the likes of Geoff Geary, (pre-awesome) Ryan Madson, Clay Condrey, Tom Gordon, a man with twelve fingers, and later, the execrable Jose Mesa. Gordon, who had done a nice job as the closer in 2006 before hurting his shoulder late in the season, landed on the DL again in early May of 2007. So bad was the bullpen situation that Charlie Manuel felt compelled to weaken his already weak starting rotation by moving Brett Myers into the pen after just three starts. Myers performed well first as a setup man and then as closer in Gordon's absence, and the starting rotation was stabilized somewhat with the deadline deal for Kyle Lohse and the luck-fueled 3.87 ERA of straight-from-AA-call-up Kyle Kendrick. 

When the Phillies sent Michael Bourn, Geoff Geary, and Mike Costanzo to Houston for Lidge and Eric BruntLOLtt after the 2007 season, it generally viewed as a decent deal for the Phillies. Lidge had stuff as good as any reliever in baseball (12.6 K/9 from 2002-2007) but had struggled intermittently in his last few years with the Astros and bounced in and out of the closer role. For a reasonable one-year price tag of $6.5 million, his addition to the Phillies' bullpen gave them a legitimate, Proven Closer (TM) (albeit one coming off of knee surgery) with the potential to be utterly dominant. Meanwhile, of the pieces the Phillies gave up, Bourn was the most promising. Costanzo was a 23-year-old AA third baseman with good pop and decent plate discipline but a propensity for strikeouts and serious questions about his defense. Geary was...well...Geary. The move also had the effect of adding a starting pitcher, as it allowed Myers to slot back into the rotation. 

And as we all know, 2008 Lidge was Good Lidge. It wasn't until mid-May that he allowed his first earned run. Pat Gillick was so impressed with Lidge's first few months that in early July he signed him to a whopping three year, $36 million extension with a team option for a fourth year or a $1.5 million buyout which they will certainly exercise this offseason. Of course hindsight is 20/20, and it's easy to say now that this was a bad deal, but even at the time there were reasons to be wary. First, outside of a very select group of Mariano Rivera-like freaks, relief pitchers simply aren't worth that much money. It is an extremely volatile role from year to year. Second, as I already noted, Brad Lidge himself had a recent history of year to year volatility. Third, at the time of the deal Lidge was 31 years old and his recent bill of health wasn't exactly spotless.

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As painful as last week's early playoff exit was for Phillies fans, I think it is important to keep some perspective. We are currently living through the greatest run in the history of the franchise -- a history that could best be characterized as "long periods of futility punctuated by short stretches of excellence." The most recent such period of futility spanned more than a decade, from 1987 to 2000 (one flash-in-the-pan 1993 campaign excepted). Fortunately, I am not old enough to remember the first few years of that stretch, but having become a fan in the early 90s, I remember most of it. 

It's certainly true that there is no better way to get fans to come out to the ballpark than to put a good team on the field. But if you are not going to put a good team on the field, you must provide alternate forms of entertainment if you expect anyone to show up.

Like a home run derby between two former Phillies stars: 

The "Bull Blast" was a home run contest between Greg Luzinski and a challenger that happened every year for a few years in the late 80s. In August 1987, between games of a twi-night double header against the Dodgers, the Bull took on Dick Allen in the seven inning contest. 

Intrepid beat reporter Les Bowen had the scoop:

And between games, you've got the "Bull Blast," a home-run hitting contest between ex-Phils Greg Luzinski and Dick Allen.

Such a deal.

Plus, it will be the first Veterans Stadium meeting between the Phils and Dodgers since May 20. Who knows how much weight Tom Lasorda has gained since then? Certainly, Lasorda has had reason to drown his sorrows in a plate of pasta - the Dodgers are 54-66, and have seven players on the disabled list.

Consequently, Lasorda has used 90 different lineups this season. The Phils have used just 74. But there is no truth to the rumor that after Luzinski and Allen square off, the Dodgers will try to sign the winner to play for them in the nightcap.

Luzinski has been approaching the contest as if that were the case, however. He was down at the Vet during the three-game Phils-Padres series taking batting practice, from 3:30 to 4 each afternoon. Allen's approach, typically, has been more enigmatic.

"He came in from the West Coast a few days ago and went straight down to Maryland," reported Dick Allen Jr., a member of the Phils' ground crew. "I don't know what he's doing, whether he's practicing or not. He's been playing in some of those old-timers' games . . . I think he can still hit one out. But I'm hoping they'll let me shag. I want to jump over the wall and rob somebody, like Eric Davis does."

A few things worth noting: 

• As you'll see in the video, Dick Allen Jr. was indeed permitted to shag flyballs.
• Luzinski's homer at around 1:00 is absolutely pulverized.
• At the time of the Bull Blast, Dick Allen was 45 and 1/2 years old. Allen stood at just 5' 11" tall and weighed about 190 pounds, but nevertheless packed a tremendous amount of power, as he hit 351 homers in his career. One of the best offensive players in Phillies history, it's hardly surprising that he was given tons of shit by fans (his race probably also had something to do with it.) His 9.1 WAR Rookie of the Year campaign in 1964 and his 7.8 WAR 1966 season remain two of the top ten offensive seasons in franchise history. 
• Yes, that's Chris Wheeler you hear.

Luzinski won the contest 8-7 in extra innings. The two faced off again the following year and Luzinski won again, this time by a score of 7-5. 

I, for one, vote to resurrect this tradition. I doubt the Bull or Dick Allen are in any condition to hit balls into the seats (even at CBP), but maybe we can look forward to a Ryan Howard-Bobby Abreu matchup in ten years or so.

I am still seeing a number of people on this site and elsewhere who can't quite seem to accept that the Phillies realized their roughly 80 percent chance of not winning a World Series. In the minds of these people (and I should note that this is certainly the majority opinion) a 102 win season is considered void owing to the team's failure to win three out of five games against the Cardinals. 

David did a wonderful job of setting the record straight on the 2011 season, so my intention here is only to augment his fine work with another thought experiment. 

So imagine, if you will, that in the bottom of the fourth of Friday's game, with runners on the corners and two outs, Raul Ibanez's deep flyball to right field isn't tracked down by Lance Berkman against the wall, but rather carries an additional five feet and either just clears the fence for a three run homer or bounces off of it for a two run double. In either case, the lead holds and the Phillies advance to their fourth consecutive NLCS. For at least another week, the talk of the Phillies' season being a failure is forestalled. 

And this is precisely why declaring a 162 game season a failure on the basis of the outcome of a five game series is ridiculous. If a stray gust of wind had blown out to right field as Ibanez's fly ball was in the air, we would very likely not even be having this discussion. If Ibanez's bat had made contact with the ball a millimeter above where it actually did, the Phillies could be four wins away from another National League Pennant right now. In a five game series, small, random events can carry an undue influence on the series outcome. Such minute details can have no less an impact on the outcomes of individual regular season games, but the difference is that over the course of 162 games they have a chance to even out. When you think of it in terms of a millimeter here and a millimeter there being decisive, does it still make sense to call the 2011 season a failure? That's a rhetorical question. The answer is "No."

So, knowing this why do we continue to stake a team's legacy on the outcome of a few series at the end of the season? Very few people would even bother to argue that the playoffs are an effective way of determining who the best team was in a given season. Some may respond by saying something along the lines of "Nobody remembers teams that are dominant in the regular season but fizzle out in the playoffs." However, this is more a diagnosis of the very problem than it is a counterargument. Others may acknowledge the validity of my point while saying "Yeah, but for me, the season is a failure because they couldn't win a World Series." But just because you claim something applies only to you does not mean it is not illogical or that it should be immune from criticism.

Look, I am as disappointed as the next man that the Phillies' playoff run ended early again this year. I would love to see another parade as much as anyone. But drawing a distinction between disappointment with the outcome of a series in which randomness rules and disappointment with a full 162 game season is essential.

The 2011 Phillies were objectively the best team in the league. This team was one of a handful of the best teams in the franchise's 129 year history. Over the course of the regular season this team provided you with hundreds of hours of enjoyment. It's a damn shame that a couple of millimeters are all it takes for people to declare it a failure.

This is kind of amusing now. The Phillies lost yet again--their eighth straight game. At first it looked like things might be turning around when the Phillies loaded the bases with no outs in the top of the first, but then it looked like more of the same when Hunter Pence grounded into a double play and nary a run was plated. But then things appeared to be turning around again when the Phillies pushed across three runs in just two innings to jump out to an early 3-0 lead. But then it looked like more of the same again when Hunter Pence botched a relatively routine two-out flyball that allowed two runs the score. The worst part wasn't the runs, actually, but the fact that it allowed the inning to continue. A David Wright walk, a Nick Evans double, and a Josh Thole single later and the Phillies were down 5-3. All-in-all, a five-run error for Mr. Pence. Banner effort for him tonight.

According to the boxscore, the Phillies didn't score again. But actually I didn't watch after the Mets took the lead. 

The Phillies are playing really crappy baseball right now and it's really frustrating to watch, it can't be denied. However, the sheer improbability of losing eight games in a row suggests that this is a fluke. Even if the Phillies suddenly and mysteriously turned into a really terrible team immediately after clinching, the chances of them losing eight games in a row are extremely small. 

Probably the worst part of this whole ordeal is that it has brought out the most stereotypical negadelphian traits in a number of fans. Look, as I noted earlier this week, teams that have lost a lot towards the end of the regular season have won in October and teams that have gone into the playoffs on a hot streak have lost too. It's just how the playoffs work. Unfortunately, it appears that this team's history has already been written. In the likely event that they lose in the playoffs, they will forever be branded as the team that clinched early and then burnt out. It's really too bad that barring a World Series win, this is how this amazing season will be remembered.

So to sum up, here's my suggestion: if these games upset you, don't watch them. Don't even check the scores in the morning. There's simply no point in getting yourself worked up over games that are utterly meaningless. Do something else with your time until the playoffs start and forget the last twelve games of the season ever happened. If nothing else, it should allow you to enjoy the playoffs without being haunted by the anxiety that these games may have caused you.

via www.fangraphs.com

Let us imagine a scenario: after the Phillies clinch the NL East on September 17th they go on to win just three of their last eleven games. Many Phillies fans and members of the media begin to grow uneasy with this apparent lack of urgency from the team. Even though the games are meaningless, they'd still love to see the team continue to win at their previous torrid clip.

In the NLDS, the Phillies encounter the Milwaukee Brewers. In the first game, Roy Halladay delivers an uncharacteristically shaky performance, allowing five runs in seven innings. Meanwhile, the Phillies bats manage to hit a number of balls hard off of Brewers' game one starter Zack Greinke, but they all seem to find gloves and he pitches a complete game 4-hitter. Just like that, the Phillies find themselves down 1-0. 

In game two, Cliff Lee and Yovani Gallardo duel for seven innings, each holding their opponents to just two runs. Having thrown 105 pitches, Cliff Lee is sent out for the eighth. After putting two men on with no outs, Lee appears to have escaped the jam before Ryan Braun sends a 2-0 cutter into the second deck in left to put the Brewers ahead 5-2. The Phillies manage to tack on two runs in the eight against the Brewers bullpen, but the lead ultimately holds and the Brewers take a commanding 2-0 lead in the series. 

Facing elimination, Cole Hamels takes the mound and pitches a total gem. In seven shutout innings, he strikes out 11 Brewers and allows just 2 hits. Against Shawn Marcum, the Phillies offense breaks out for five runs, chasing him after four innings. Antonio Bastardo enters the game in the bottom of the eighth and surrenders two runs while getting just one out. Brad Lidge replaces Bastardo and allows an inherited runner to score, but escapes without further damage. Ryan Madson enters a 5-3 game in the bottom of the ninth and records two quick outs. Then, a Nyjer Morgan bleeder and a Ryan Braun bloop put two men on for Prince Fielder. An ill-advised 0-2 cutter from Madson is smashed damn near out of the stadium and the Brewers complete the sweep in walk-off fashion. 

I know it is horrifying to envision this scenario, but if you can, try to bear with me. Next I want you to imagine that after you have tended to the sucking chest wound you have been left with from this series, you find yourself listening to sports radio, or watching ESPN, or accidentally reading the comments on a local paper's website. 

What is the dominant narrative being used to explain the Phillies' sudden, unceremonious elimination from the playoffs?

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It is odd to look at the NL East standings and see the Phillies 12 games ahead on September 12th. The idea of a double-digit division lead is completely foreign to me. Indeed, those of us who became fans in 1993 have known only double-digit September deficits. Who could ever forget the 2000 team that on September 12th sat 25 games back in the division at 59-85? Curt Schilling was traded away to Arizona and, despite spectacular seasons from Bobby Abreu and Scott Rolen, the team had grown boring by May. There were better, more exciting things for a 13-year-old boy to be doing with his time than watching a horrible team play out the string. Like burning ants with a magnifying glass. And popping bubble wrap. And doing wheelies on his BMX bike. 

There was a blip in 2001 when the Phillies finished two games behind the Braves in the division, but things began to change in earnest in the mid-aughts. The signing of Jim Thome, the move to Citizens Bank Park, and the emergence of talent from the minors at key positions saw the Phillies claw their way back to respectability. If not necessarily competitive in the division race, the team found itself in the thick of the Wild Card race several years in a row. All of this is to say that while the team may have been disappointing in the end, they were not boring anymore. 

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The Phillies' playoff death march of death was forestalled by one day as the Milwaukee Brewers staved off a four game home sweep behind a strong pitching performance from Yovani Gallardo. 

For the first five innings, Gallardo utterly dominated the Phillies still-depleted lineup to the tune of one hit and nine strikeouts. There's no more shame in that than there was in the Brewers being shut down on consecutive days by Cole Hamels, Roy Halladay, and Cliff Lee -- all four are excellent pitchers.

Still, after six innings today, the Phillies were on top in this one and appeared poised to clinch their fifth playoff berth in a row. In the top of the sixth, Gallardo showed his first signs of being human when he allowed a leadoff homer to Shane Victorino and a two-out solo blast to Ryan Howard. That would be all the Phillies could muster, however, and Gallardo departed after seven with a snazzy line of 3 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, and 12 K. 

On the other side, Vance Worley was very good yet again. Worley battled to hold the potent Brewers bats to just one run through six innings, but was unable to hold the lead in the seventh as they mounted a two out mini-rally. Corey Hart started things with a double down the line in left and lovable psychopath Nyjer Morgan drove him in with a double in the right-centerfield gap. Worley appeared to have Ryan Braun struck out on a fastball that caught the inside corner, but Gerry Davis wasn't looking and gave Braun another chance, which was poked into right field for the go-ahead run. 

The Brewers' bullpen held and the Phillies lost 3-2. 

A few notes:

-The Phillies concluded a 6-1 week against two teams that are virtual locks for the playoffs. Cool. 

-Or maybe not...The Braves lost to the Cardinals again today, cutting their Wild Card lead to 4.5 games. The Phillies division lead remains at 12 games. For the Braves, that's eight losses in their last 11 games. 

-The Phillies now head down to Houston for a three game set. It will be nice to play a late-season series against the Astros without having to worry about how the inevitable sweep will affect their playoff chances. 

-The Eagles looked pretty sharp today, huh?

via www.fangraphs.com

Having long since tired of casual romantic encounters, I've decided to cast my net for someone who is in it for the long haul. Although I've searched far and wide for my terrestrial soulmate, I have yet to find a woman who I can bring home to mom. It seems as if the prospects on dry land are, well...dry. But as they always say: there are many fish in the sea -- which is exactly where I am taking my search. 

A bit about me: I'm a gainfully employed 27-year-old SBM. I'm tall with an athletic build. I've been told that I'm a handsome man and that I bear a slight resemblance to Tiger Woods. I bat and throw right handed and can play four different positions. I have a zest for life and love trying new things. 

Some of my interests include cooking (sea food especially), water sports, yoga, book collecting, learning new languages, left handed pitching, sculpture, French New Wave cinema, Jazz music, and volunteering at oil spill cleanups. 

You will never have to worry about our conversations being dull and uninteresting as I am a true man of letters. I graduated from Stanford University (an esteemed west coast learning institution), where I studied Political Science. What's more, the marine biology course I took as a general requirement makes me particularly sensitive to the culture of sea people. Several of my close college friends are engineers, and I have already put them to work designing a portable mermaid tank so you can travel safely and comfortably. This is not to say that I am unwilling to meet you half way; I love the ocean and own state of the art scuba equipment. I imagine -- if we turn out to be right for each other -- that we would build a quaint home on the beach in gorgeous Clearwater, Florida and eventually start a family of merfolk/human kids.

Things I look for in a mermaid include (but are not limited to) brown hair, green fins, intelligence, adventurousness, and a good sense of humor. 

Preferably I would meet a stunning mermaid princess who shares some of my interests and has an open heart and an open mind, but I would settle for a member of a royal court. 

My turnoffs include mermaids who feel like fishes out of water when trying new things, are poor communicators, and are overly needy. Between the months of April and November I am traveling frequently due to my job, so you must be independent and comfortable spending long periods of time apart.

I understand that human-merfolk relationships are frowned upon in our society, with many states taking steps to ban such marriages. But who ever said that Cupid doesn't own a harpoon gun? I believe that true love knows no shape, creed, color, gender, or species. Moreover, I can sympathize with the merfolk's plight of being caught between the fish world and the human world while being accepted by members of neither. For the last year I have been accepted by members of neither the platoon player community nor the everyday player community. Let's turn this shared pain into something beautiful.

If you like what you read and the prospect of sharing a life with me intrigues you, please do not hesitate to contact me. It's time for something deeper.

Sincerely, 

John

In the spirit of Labor Day -- which became a national holiday in 1894 on the heels of the Pullman Strike -- Charlie Manuel and the Phillies decided to play today's game under protest. 

Not surprisingly, it was Joe West (the first member of his family in over 125 years not to be employed by the Pinkertons) who was at the center of another controversy on the baseball field. With the score tied at 2 in the top of the sixth and Ryan Howard on first with no outs, Hunter Pence hit a ball to deep right field. Brian Peterson went back on the ball and attempted to make a leaping catch at the wall, but a fan appeared to reach over the wall and make contact with the ball. Pence ended up stopping at second for a double. 

What happened next is confusing: Joe West called his team together to review whether the ball cleared the wall, which he said after the game was requested by Charlie Manuel. But Charlie Manuel said after the game that he requested nothing. As it turns out, according to Matt Gelb, an umpire IS allowed to review a play without a request from a manager. So, naturally, after reviewing a play just because he felt like it, Joe West ruled that the fan had interfered. Pence was called out. Howard went back to first. Charlie argued and was ejected. And the rest of the game was played under protest. 

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For the first five innings, tonight's contest appeared to have all of the trappings of a pitchers' duel, not unlike last night's low-scoring affair. Phillies ace di tutti aces Roy Halladay and Reds guy Bronson Arroyo traded zeroes for the first three frames. But Bronson Arroyo is a pitcher who doesn't strike many people out and doesn't do a very good job of keeping the ball in the ballpark. The wise bet was that he would break first.

In the fourth, it was Arroyo's tendency to give up home runs that bit him. Chase Utley drew a one out walk and Ryan Howard hit what appeared at first to be a high popout right that kept drifting and drifting and drifting until it drifted far enough to put the Phillies up 2-0. Then, in the sixth, Hunter Pence got the real party started with a solo homer to deep center on a pitch that was somewhere between his nipples and his nose. Wheels wasn't in the booth at the time, but I swear to you I could hear that distinctive cat-in-heat sound in the background.

After that, the game turned into a lesson in the perils of pitching to contact. Raul Ibanez and Carlos Ruiz smacked back-to-back singles to put men on first and second for Wilson Valdez, who was robbed of a GIDP by former Phillies superstar Miguel Cairo. With the pouches now engorged and a chance to blow things wide open, Roy Halladay stepped to the plate. Now, Roy Halladay is not a very good hitter, so to most pitchers this would not seem like a very grave situation. But as I've already said, Bronson Arroyo does not miss many bats, and in this case Roy Halladay's bat was one of the bats he did not miss. Doc swung at the first pitch and the ball was scorched down the right field line for a bases-clearing double to put the Philllies up 6-0 and to push their win probability into the 99 percent zone. 

As it turns out, Roy Halladay really only needed one of the three runs he drove in himself. He had everything working tonight, as he yet again set down numerous Reds hitters in order--17 hitters between the first and the seventh, to be precise. He only encountered real trouble once, in the seventh, when he loaded the bases with one out on a Joey Votto double, a Jay Bruce HBP, and a Drew Stubbs walk. Harm was avoided because Doc has a glandular disorder that results in his body producing quantities of guile that would be unsafe to most species on the planet; he struck out Todd Frazier and got Ryan Hanigan to ground out to end the threat. Roy's final line: 7 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 9 K. 

The Phils tacked on two runs in the seventh, on a homer by Raul Ibanez, and one in the ninth on Ryan Howard's second blast of the night. Brad Lidge pitched a scoreless eighth and the Bear Jew (who was demoted after the game) finished off the shutout. 

The Braves lost tonight behind expert ball-hider Jair Jurrjens to extend the Phillies division lead to 7.5 games. Cliff Lee tomorrow.

via www.fangraphs.com

Dear David Herndon, 

It's nothing personal, I swear. For all I know, you are a perfectly fine human being. By that same token, for all I know you are a closeted neo-Nazi who impales chinchillas with a pitchfork, sets them on fire, and uses them to light his basement torture dungeon. I don't care. 

It's not about who you are. 

It's about what you do on the baseball diamond and how you are perceived and treated by Phillies fans--in particular, the apparent disconnect between those two things. So, it's about justice. 

For some reason, people in this city really hate you. If many fans had their way, you would be consigned to mop-up duty. Your entrance into close games is still greeted with groans and angry mutterings of "Oh God, Herndon? Really?!" 

They can't possibly be looking objectively at your performance this season, because if they did that, they'd recognize that you have actually been quite good. Rather, fan opinion of you seems to have been poisoned by your replacement-level 2010 campaign and your rough start this season. You're not a bad pitcher, but damnit if people don't really want you to be a bad pitcher. 

During your horrid start to this season (which I'm sure you would prefer not to remember) a number of fans insisted that you were simply performing to your true talent level and that your prospects for success at the Major League level were grim. On May 1, I came to your defense, arguing that you possess two valuable skills as a pitcher: an ability to generate loads of groundballs and good control. If you could improve your K-rate (something your minor league numbers indicated there was a precedent for), I said, you could turn out to be quite a nice piece in the Phillies bullpen. 

You did, and I was right. 

Continue reading this post »

Late late game tonight. Here are some links to tide you over.

Phillies:

Giving Kyle Kendrick his due
Giving Kyle Kendrick his doo-doo.

Ryan Howard, fastballs, and the fallacy of protection
This article summed up: "cum hoc ergo propter hoc".

Footage of Dom Brown’s IronPigs homer from Tuesday
I wonder if he was picturing Amaro's face on the ball.

Oswalt set to pitch Sunday for Phillies
With strikeouts plz.

Future Planning By Dealing Prospects
An interesting alternate perspective. The other options out there for next year aren't particularly sexy. 

Matt Stairs Retires
Adios, friend.

Elsewhere in baseball:

Scott Boras On Washington Nationals' Right-Hander Stephen Strasburg's Impending Return
*GULP*

Source: MLB could suspend Alex Rodriguez of New York Yankees for illegal poker
A-Rod believed to have been present at the poker game when Jackie Aprile shot Furio.

Diamondbacks Might Not Be Fantastic, But They're Real
Don't sleep on the D-Bags, Phillies fans.

The Animated GIFs Of July: In Which Every Living Baseball Player Is Terrible
Many baseball .GIFs.

Who Gets the Scoop? Number of Correct, First Reported Deals in July
Jon Sphincter takes the "if you throw enough crap at the wall, some of it is bound to stick" approach. 

...And you'd never guess it from how they are received by Phillies fans.

While Stutes is almost universally beloved (he already has his own "UUUUUUUUUUUU" chant), Herndon is almost universally reviled. While most Phillies fans feel confident with Mike Stutes appearing in high-leverage situations, they would be utterly apoplectic if Herndon was used in the same situations as often as Stutes is. To a certain extent this is understandable. Fans tend to value results more than process, and Stutes's 3.18 ERA would suggest that he is a whole lot better than Herndon, whose ERA sits at 4.46.

But here we value process, and if we look at the things that are under each pitcher's control, we quickly realize the extent to which perception is out of line with reality. Here, also, comparing Herndon and Stutes is a study in polar opposites. Whereas Herndon is an extreme groundball pitcher (56.9%) with a lowish K-rate (6.03 K/9) and a lowish BB-rate (2.62 BB/9), Stutes is an extreme flyball pitcher (55%) with a high K-rate (8.62 K/9) and a high BB-rate (4.54 BB/9). Stutes's success is absolutely dependent on his ability to strike batters out, as more contact would mean more flyballs which would mean more home runs. Likewise, Herndon's success is dependent on his ability to keep the ball on the ground, as his low K-rate means hitters put the ball in play against him more often.

So what has been the difference between these two pitchers to this point? The answer -- and it may upset some fans to hear it -- is "luck". To this point, Stutes has benefitted from some good luck on balls in play. Even considering that an extreme flyball pitcher like Stutes with a solid 16.4 infield flyball percentage would naturally have a lower BABIP because BABIP on flyballs tends to be lower, his current .216 mark is simply not sustainable. Moreover, while the BABIP on flyballs is lower, flyballs also have a tendency to turn into extra base hits. Stutes can clearly be expected to regress, and his recent results indicate that that process is already underway.

Herndon, on the other hand, has had very bad luck on flyballs. This year, the league average HR/FB rate has been 7%. Herndon's has been an absurdly high 17.1%. Given that it is believed that pitchers generally are not able to control whether their flyballs leave or stay in the park, this number will almost certainly regress, and as it does, Herndon's ERA will also fall. 

A quick look at each pitcher's DIPS would seem to confirm the assertion in the title of this post. Stutes's xFIP and SIERA are 4.38 and 3.71 respectively; Herndon's are 3.81 and 3.39. So not only has Herndon actually pitched better than Stutes, but he has done so by a considerable margin. Ranked by xFIP, Herndon has in fact been the third best reliever on the team among those with at least 10 innings pitched.

Continue reading this post »

Although they seem to win just about every series these days, it has been quite a long time since the Phillies swept an opponent. In fact, not since a four game sweep of the Marlins from June 14th to 16th have they accomplished the feat. And for a while today, it seemed like their effort to close out an opponent would yet again be denied. 

For most of the day it was a back and forth affair. Vance Worley took the hill for the Phillies and pitched a much better game than his final line would indicate. He had his strikeout stuff working early and was making the Pirates look downright silly, striking out five straight over one stretch from the first to third innings. He encountered some trouble in the fifth, though, when Xavier Paul blooped a two-out single to left with runners on second and third to give the Pirates their first lead of the day. 

The Phillies answered right back in the bottom half, however. A Brian Schneider double, Michael Martinez single, and Worley sacrifice bunt put runners on second and third with one out for Jimmy Rollins who stroked a single to right to put the Philles back on top 3-2. 

But the Pirates returned the Phillies return volley in the top of the sixth. Worley's miniscule 3.9% HR/FB ratio took a step towards regressing when, with two outs, he allowed a two-out two-run homer to the soon-to-be redundant Lyle Overbay (the Pirates completed a trade for Derrek Lee last night). Once again, the Phillies found themselves down a run. 

The Pirates tacked on another run against Brad Lidge in the top of the seventh to make the score 5-3. And there it stayed until the bottom of the bottom of the eighth. Ryan Howard knocked a one out double against lefty reliever Joe Beimel, but when Hunter Pence followed with a groundball to deep short that would have made for a very difficult play at first base, Howard inexplicably took off for third and was explicably gunned down. Momentarily, it appeared that the Phillies had run themselves out of the inning. Then Raul Ibanez stepped to the plate. Already with one home run to his credit--a deep shot to center that gave the Phillies the early 1-0 lead--he took Jose Veras first pitch out to left field to tie the game at five. (And before you say "BUT IT SHOULD HAVE BEEN A THREE RUN SHOT!", keep in mind the fallacy of the predetermined outcome.)

Two nice innings of relief from Ryan Madson and Antonio Bastardo twice put the Phillies in prime position to walk things off, which they did in the bottom of the tenth. Hunter Pence slapped a double down the left field line and Raul Ibanez--already the hero once--came through again smashing a base hit to the right field wall allowing Pence to score with ease. If Ibanez manages to stay hot at the plate, it would certainly make some fans regret Domonic Brown's temporary demotion a bit less.

It did today, at least.

via www.fangraphs.com