
Gabe F-B
Dec 22, 2009 May 31, 2012 32 2295
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Numbers behind the lockout
Quick summary: Players salaries and team revenues are growing exactly at the rate of inflation. Team expenses (outside of players salaries) are growing at five times the rate of inflation.
11 months ago
Gabe F-B
84 comments
2 recs
Every Draft Pick (Prematurely) Reviewed: 2011
This is year two of putting my thoughts down on as many draft prospects as possible for posterity and possibly comedy. I lean heavy towards stats, but am going to try and take a slightly more holistic approach. I use the Draftexpress mock draft order, so the players are not necessarily in the order I would pick them.
Here's where I tried doing this -- Last year!
For fellow draft junkies, here's a few of the places I lean on when obsessing over draft prospects:
http://arturogalletti.wordpress.com/
Before starting with this years draft, I'm going to take a look at one guy I definitely got wrong last year.
More in a second.
22 comments
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12 recs |
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A Readers Guide to Keith Langlois
Our friend Keith at Pistons.com unloaded both barrels of rainbows and unicorns in defense of Jod in his post-trade deadline article. Let's take a closer look at some of the things he said.
First the title:
ALL QUIET: To stand pat in tough times no easier than rolling the dice in good ones.
Huh. Not sure about this assertion. Will it be backed up by a) logical evidence, or b) extended metaphors/parables about firing bullets and cresting waves and 60 cents on the dollar and dice rolling? The article title may have already answered this question.
It takes guts to do what Danny Ainge did as the NBA trade deadline approached Thursday.
It takes guts to do what Joe Dumars did, as well, as that same deadline approached.
Dumb ≠ Gutsy.
And that’s no easier – with trades flying all around the league – when you’re the president of a franchise accustomed to long playoff runs, suddenly staring at the likelihood of a second consecutive season on the postseason sideline, than to roll the dice as Ainge did.
It takes guts to stand pat when there is a public clamor for action, when your team is openly frustrated by its own lack of success, when the losses mount and the unrest among fans still coming to The Palace swells proportionately.
Run-on sentences take guts.
If it was a deal that gave him even a 51-49 chance to better the product, he would have done it.
Jod's basketball acumen is so finely attuned he can determine the chances of a better/worse product from a trade down to single percentage points. (ed- no word yet from Keith as to whether this applies to free agent signings)
The Pistons didn’t get any better on Thursday, but they didn’t get any worse, either.
Mind --> BLOWN
Look south to Cleveland and consider the Cavs. They made a bold move Wednesday, sending Mo Williams and Jamario Moon to the Clippers for Baron Davis and this year’s No. 1 pick, a certain lottery pick.
The Cavs made a possibly bad, potentially very bad deal. What does this have to do with the Pistons? More in a second.
My hunch is that an overwhelming number of Pistons fans would have celebrated a similar deal, though the Pistons don’t have similar pieces.
That's not a hunch. That is me stabbing a voodoo doll connected to your spirit in the ass.
This is actually a pretty incredible sentence, even by Keith's standards.
"My hunch is" = I have no evidence
"an overwhelming number of Pistons fans would have celebrated a similar deal" = rock solid strawman construction
"though the Pistons don’t have similar pieces." = strawman self-immolation
In sum: "I have no evidence, but here's a strawman, but that strawman doesn't apply in this case."
The closest thing to it would be Tayshaun Prince (like Moon, an expiring contract, though a considerably better player) and Rodney Stuckey.
15 comments
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10 recs |
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More Trade Ideas- no cows spared
Starting from the assumption that it will take the Pistons a few years (at a minimum) of genuine rebuilding to get back into contention, let's imagine if all players on the team are available.
The Pistons have roughly $41m committed through the '12-'13 season to five players:
Rip (12.5), BG (12.5), CV (8), Max (5), Bynum (3.5).
I think we're all in agreement that trading Rip is the preferred outcome. But regardless of that preference, having two sub-superstar shooting guards making a combined $25m locks the Pistons in an awkward salary structure limbo, so if no team will take Rip, what would an acceptable trade with Gordon look like (I have a few ideas)?
Also, IME the combo of CV and Max is not an efficient use of money. For a combined cost of $13m, the Pistons are getting two essentially average PF's. Are there any realistic trades that involve CV/Max that DBB would go for?
The Pistons have four veterans on expiring contracts:
Tay (11m), Wilcox (3m), TMac (1m), Big Ben (1m).
Should the team look to trade any of these guys for players with expensive long-term contracts, or is it better to try and flip them to contending teams for inferior players and draft picks, or just let them expire?
And now the young players who haven't yet reached their first contract extension:
Stuckey, Monroe, Daye, Jerebko, Summers, White.
It probably makes sense to separate them into tiers, I'm guessing the Pistons would break them down into something like: Tier 3- Summers/White. Tier 2- Jerebko/Daye, Tier 1- Stuckey/Monroe. Should any of them be on the table even if it's not a straight talent for talent trade, say if a team would take Rip off the Pistons hands, should Jod be willing to include Daye or Jerebko?
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Enough questions, here's a couple trade ideas:
BG division (simple):
Gordon for Dalembert (and let's say a 2nd round pick in 2011 and future protected 1st round pick).
Gordon for Troy Murphy (and similar package of picks).
Those both lighten the SG load and bring back a big with an expiring contract. Gordon would compliment Harris, Favors, and Lopez in NJ. In Sactown, Gordon could be the floor spacer to compliment Evans in the backcourt.
BG division (less simple):
Hollinger likes this idea. BG/Wilcox/Bynum for Camby/Andre Miller. Is it feasible? Maaayyybee...? Portland is at a crossroads, and might want to go young. Gordon would, in theory, be a good fit in a backcourt with Roy (like a supercharged Steve Blake). So Portland could run a Gordon/Roy/Batum/Aldridge/? line-up and put the ball back in Roy's hands as the primary play-maker. Bynum would be a change of pace back-up. For the Pistons, Miller's contract has a team option for next season, so the team could dump him and be left with only Camby (for just one year). This would go a long way toward bringing the Pistons long-term salary structure back in-line, and Camby is still an effective player.
finally, Stuckey and CV division:
??. Stuckey/CV for Jameer Nelson/Ryan Anderson. Stay with me-- for the Pistons, Anderson approximates CV's production at a much lower cost. Nelson already signed an extension for around what Stuckey will probably be getting, and IME Nelson is a better player. In sum, comparable production, less money spent. For Orlando, they're already gambling huge money on Arenas, this would eliminate potential alpha-dog conflict between Nelson and Arenas, Stuckey gives them a slashing guard to compliment all the shooters they have, and CV gives them a more established stretch-PF to platoon with Bass.
What says DBB? Is this RP worthy?
Shameless Self-Promotion
Here's a teaser/trailer for an indie feature film I shot this summer, my first time being Director of Photography on a full length movie.
If you scroll through the crew you can see my goofy mug, or a better option is probably to scroll through the pretty cast, and if you're so inclined there's a link to the movie's facebook page-- any and all 'likes' are greatly appreciated (I can angle to get DBB a special thanks in the credits!).
Hope you all enjoy it!
over 1 year ago
Gabe F-B
11 comments
1 recs
Players who might be available (who we might want)
Going 101% off pure speculation, let's break down which possibly available players we would want if we were Jods for a day.
I'll start with my random assorted lists/thoughts.
Good article about hip hop/rap
Worth a read.
DBB Basketball Game?
This is more low-key than a trip to Vegas, but if anyone is interested-- I'm home visiting my parents in Ann Arbor and most of the guys I used to play basketball with are now either out of state or don't/can't play that much anymore.
So any DBB'ers in the area interested in pick-up bball?
I usually just play at outdoor parks in summer, but I'd make the trek to a gym if there's a couple other guys who wanna run some 5v5 on hardwood. Or 3v3 at Elbel is always solid.
Bosh to Miami
A couple people have mentioned the news in different posts. But here it is, another domino comes tumbling down.
Best non-dunk shooters in 2010 Draft
Very interesting article. Unfortunately (IMO), it is another data point that suggests Greg Monroe might struggle against NBA competition.
Every Draft Pick (prematurely) Reviewed
I've been a draft junkie for years, obsessing over the Pistons picks even when they only had late 2nd rounders (i.e. 2006- Samb and Blalock FTW!). So now I'm finally going to put my epinions to the test, and review every projected pick, and record my thoughts for posterity/accountability and possibly comedy.
I'm listing all the players in the order that they are currently projected on the draftexpress mock draft.
I'm a stats oriented guy, and I think a stats-based view gives the best chance of getting a pick correct, but there's really no perfect method, and some players who put up great stats in college won't make it in the league, and some guys with middling numbers might surprise.
73 comments
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3 recs |
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Greg Monroe vs. Everyone Else
***** IMPORTANT: To see the full stat tabs, this post needs to be viewed on the WIDE setting*****
Monroe seems to be Pistons fans most popular choice among players who will probably be available (he's definitely the choice of pistons.com editor/Jod spokesman, Keith Langlois).
I don't want Monroe.
I'm gonna try and illustrate why with stats (courtesy of draftexpress.com)
Monroe:
Basic Statistics Per 40 Pace Adjusted
| Year | League | Team | GP | Min | Pts | FG | FGA | FG% | 2Pt | 2PtA | 2P% | 3Pt | 3PtA | 3P% | FTM | FTA | FT% | Off | Def | TOT | Asts | Stls | Blks | TOs | PFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008/09 | NCAA | Georgetown | 31 | 30.9 | 17.2 | 6.3 | 11.0 | 57.2 | 6.2 | 10.7 | 57.8 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 33.3 | 4.6 | 6.6 | 70.0 | 2.7 | 6.2 | 8.9 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 3.4 |
| 2009/10 | NCAA | Georgetown | 34 | 34.2 | 19.0 | 7.0 | 13.3 | 52.5 | 6.7 | 12.4 | 54.5 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 25.9 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 66.0 | 2.6 | 8.8 | 11.3 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 3.9 | 3.0 |
Villanueva:
Basic Statistics Per 40 Pace Adjusted
| Year | League | Team | GP | Min | Pts | FG | FGA | FG% | 2Pt | 2PtA | 2P% | 3Pt | 3PtA | 3P% | FTM | FTA | FT% | Off | Def | TOT | Asts | Stls | Blks | TOs | PFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003/04 | NCAA | Connecticut | 32 | 19.0 | 18.3 | 7.2 | 14.1 | 51.4 | 6.1 | 10.9 | 55.6 | 1.2 | 3.1 | 36.7 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 66.7 | 3.6 | 7.2 | 10.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 4.6 |
| 2004/05 | NCAA | Connecticut | 31 | 25.8 | 19.9 | 7.5 | 14.4 | 52.1 | 7.2 | 13.8 | 52.2 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 50.0 | 4.6 | 6.7 | 68.8 | 3.9 | 8.3 | 12.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 3.2 |
Aldrich:
Basic Statistics Per 40 Pace Adjusted
| Year | League | Team | GP | Min | Pts | FG | FGA | FG% | 2Pt | 2PtA | 2P% | 3Pt | 3PtA | 3P% | FTM | FTA | FT% | Off | Def | TOT | Asts | Stls | Blks | TOs | PFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007/08 | NCAA | Kansas | 40 | 8.3 | 13.3 | 5.1 | 9.8 | 51.8 | 5.1 | 9.8 | 51.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 68.4 | 4.0 | 10.1 | 14.1 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 5.7 | |
| 2008/09 | NCAA | Kansas | 35 | 29.6 | 19.9 | 7.6 | 12.7 | 59.8 | 7.6 | 12.7 | 59.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 79.2 | 4.0 | 10.7 | 14.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 3.4 | |
| 2009/10 | NCAA | Kansas | 36 | 26.8 | 16.2 | 5.9 | 10.6 | 56.2 | 5.9 | 10.6 | 56.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.3 | 6.3 | 67.9 | 4.4 | 9.7 | 14.1 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 3.7 |
Ed Davis:
Basic Statistics Per 40 Pace Adjusted
| Year | League | Team | GP | Min | Pts | FG | FGA | FG% | 2Pt | 2PtA | 2P% | 3Pt | 3PtA | 3P% | FTM | FTA | FT% | Off | Def | TOT | Asts | Stls | Blks | TOs | PFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008/09 | NCAA | North Carolina | 38 | 18.8 | 12.8 | 5.0 | 9.7 | 51.8 | 5.0 | 9.7 | 51.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | 4.9 | 57.3 | 4.2 | 8.5 | 12.7 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 3.7 | |
| 2009/10 | NCAA | North Carolina | 24 | 26.9 | 17.6 | 6.3 | 11.0 | 57.8 | 6.3 | 11.0 | 57.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 7.5 | 65.9 | 3.8 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 2.4 |
Whiteside:
Basic Statistics Per 40 Pace Adjusted
| Year | League | Team | GP | Min | Pts | FG | FGA | FG% | 2Pt | 2PtA | 2P% | 3Pt | 3PtA | 3P% | FTM | FTA | FT% | Off | Def | TOT | Asts | Stls | Blks | TOs | PFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009/10 | NCAA | Marshall | 34 | 26.1 | 19.0 | 7.1 | 13.6 | 52.4 | 7.0 | 13.4 | 52.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 60.0 | 4.7 | 8.0 | 58.8 | 3.9 | 9.0 | 12.9 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 7.7 | 2.7 | 3.5 |
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Monroe:
Efficiency Statistics
| Player Info | Shooting Ratios | Passing Ratios | Defensive Ratios | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | League | Team | GP | Min | PTs/g | FGA/g | Pts/Play | TS% | eFG% | FTA/FGA | 3PA/FGA | Ast/g | Ast/FGA | A/TO | PPR | BK/g | STL/g | PF/g | |||
| 2008/09 | NCAA | Georgetown | 31 | 30.9 | 12.7 | 8.1 | 0.99 | 0.61 | 0.58 | 0.60 | 0.02 | 2.5 | 0.32 | 1.03 | -2.59 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2.5 | |||
| 2009/10 | NCAA | Georgetown | 34 | 34.2 | 16.1 | 11.3 | 0.92 | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.54 | 0.07 | 3.8 | 0.33 | 1.14 | -2.36 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 2.6 | |||
Villanueva:
Efficiency Statistics
| Player Info | Shooting Ratios | Passing Ratios | Defensive Ratios | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | League | Team | GP | Min | PTs/g | FGA/g | Pts/Play | TS% | eFG% | FTA/FGA | 3PA/FGA | Ast/g | Ast/FGA | A/TO | PPR | BK/g | STL/g | PF/g | |||
| 2003/04 | NCAA | Connecticut | 32 | 19.0 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 0.99 | 0.57 | 0.55 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.7 | 0.10 | 0.59 | -3.92 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 2.3 | |||
| 2004/05 | NCAA | Connecticut | 31 | 25.8 | 13.6 | 9.8 | 0.95 | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.46 | 0.04 | 1.3 | 0.13 | 0.57 | -5.46 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 2.2 | |||
Aldrich:
Efficiency Statistics
| Player Info | Shooting Ratios | Passing Ratios | Defensive Ratios | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | League | Team | GP | Min | PTs/g | FGA/g | Pts/Play | TS% | eFG% | FTA/FGA | 3PA/FGA | Ast/g | Ast/FGA | A/TO | PPR | BK/g | STL/g | PF/g | |||
| 2007/08 | NCAA | Kansas | 40 | 8.3 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 0.92 | 0.56 | 0.52 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.1 | 0.06 | 0.24 | -5.36 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 1.2 | |||
| 2008/09 | NCAA | Kansas | 35 | 29.6 | 14.9 | 9.5 | 1.13 | 0.64 | 0.60 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 1.0 | 0.11 | 0.64 | -3.11 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 2.6 | |||
| 2009/10 | NCAA | Kansas | 36 | 26.8 | 11.3 | 7.4 | 1.03 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.60 | 0.00 | 0.9 | 0.12 | 0.55 | -3.69 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 2.6 | |||
Davis:
Efficiency Statistics
| Player Info | Shooting Ratios | Passing Ratios | Defensive Ratios | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | League | Team | GP | Min | PTs/g | FGA/g | Pts/Play | TS% | eFG% | FTA/FGA | 3PA/FGA | Ast/g | Ast/FGA | A/TO | PPR | BK/g | STL/g | PF/g | |||
| 2008/09 | NCAA | North Carolina | 38 | 18.8 | 6.7 | 5.0 | 0.92 | 0.54 | 0.52 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.6 | 0.12 | 0.55 | -3.56 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 1.9 | |||
| 2009/10 | NCAA | North Carolina | 24 | 26.9 | 12.9 | 8.0 | 1.03 | 0.61 | 0.58 | 0.69 | 0.00 | 0.9 | 0.11 | 0.48 | -4.88 | 2.7 | 0.4 | 1.8 | |||
Whiteside:
Efficiency Statistics
| Player Info | Shooting Ratios | Passing Ratios | Defensive Ratios | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | League | Team | GP | Min | PTs/g | FGA/g | Pts/Play | TS% | eFG% | FTA/FGA | 3PA/FGA | Ast/g | Ast/FGA | A/TO | PPR | BK/g | STL/g | PF/g | |||
| 2009/10 | NCAA | Marshall | 34 | 26.1 | 13.1 | 9.4 | 0.95 | 0.55 | 0.53 | 0.59 | 0.02 | 0.3 | 0.03 | 0.16 | -6.46 | 5.4 | 0.6 | 2.4 | |||
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Monroe:
Usage Statistics
| Player Info | Complete Metrics | Possession Info | Possession Ratios | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | League | Team | GP | Min | PER | EFF | EFF/40 | WS/40 | Pos/g | Tm Pos/g | % Tm Pos | Pts/Pos | FGA/Pos | FTA/Pos | Ast/Pos | TO/Pos |
| 2008/09 | NCAA | Georgetown | 31 | 30.9 | 25.5 | 17.7 | 22.9 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 65.5 | 17.5 | 1.11 | 0.70 | 0.42 | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| 2009/10 | NCAA | Georgetown | 34 | 34.2 | 25.9 | 21.6 | 25.2 | 12.5 | 15.4 | 66.8 | 23.1 | 1.05 | 0.73 | 0.40 | 0.24 | 0.21 |
Villanueva:
Usage Statistics
| Player Info | Complete Metrics | Possession Info | Possession Ratios | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | League | Team | GP | Min | PER | EFF | EFF/40 | WS/40 | Pos/g | Tm Pos/g | % Tm Pos | Pts/Pos | FGA/Pos | FTA/Pos | Ast/Pos | TO/Pos |
| 2003/04 | NCAA | Connecticut | 32 | 19.0 | 23.4 | 11.4 | 24.0 | 11.1 | 7.8 | 70.2 | 11.1 | 1.15 | 0.88 | 0.25 | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| 2004/05 | NCAA | Connecticut | 31 | 25.8 | 25.9 | 17.3 | 26.8 | 13.4 | 12.4 | 71.8 | 17.3 | 1.09 | 0.79 | 0.37 | 0.10 | 0.18 |
Aldrich:
Usage Statistics
| Player Info | Complete Metrics | Possession Info | Possession Ratios | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | League | Team | GP | Min | PER | EFF | EFF/40 | WS/40 | Pos/g | Tm Pos/g | % Tm Pos | Pts/Pos | FGA/Pos | FTA/Pos | Ast/Pos | TO/Pos |
| 2007/08 | NCAA | Kansas | 40 | 8.3 | 22.2 | 5.2 | 25.2 | 13.9 | 2.7 | 69.0 | 3.9 | 1.05 | 0.78 | 0.36 | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| 2008/09 | NCAA | Kansas | 35 | 29.6 | 31.6 | 23.9 | 32.2 | 18.6 | 11.8 | 69.5 | 16.9 | 1.26 | 0.81 | 0.37 | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| 2009/10 | NCAA | Kansas | 36 | 26.8 | 28.7 | 20.0 | 29.9 | 17.4 | 9.7 | 70.1 | 13.9 | 1.16 | 0.76 | 0.45 | 0.09 | 0.16 |
Davis:
Usage Statistics
| Player Info | Complete Metrics | Possession Info | Possession Ratios | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | League | Team | GP | Min | PER | EFF | EFF/40 | WS/40 | Pos/g | Tm Pos/g | % Tm Pos | Pts/Pos | FGA/Pos | FTA/Pos | Ast/Pos | TO/Pos |
| 2008/09 | NCAA | North Carolina | 38 | 18.8 | 20.5 | 11.3 | 24.1 | 13.7 | 6.3 | 76.0 | 8.3 | 1.06 | 0.80 | 0.40 | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| 2009/10 | NCAA | North Carolina | 24 | 26.9 | 26.8 | 18.9 | 28.1 | 15.9 | 11.1 | 73.0 | 15.2 | 1.16 | 0.72 | 0.50 | 0.08 | 0.17 |
Whiteside:
Usage Statistics
| Player Info | Complete Metrics | Possession Info | Possession Ratios | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | League | Team | GP | Min | PER | EFF | EFF/40 | WS/40 | Pos/g | Tm Pos/g | % Tm Pos | Pts/Pos | FGA/Pos | FTA/Pos | Ast/Pos | TO/Pos |
| 2009/10 | NCAA | Marshall | 34 | 26.1 | 29.8 | 19.6 | 30.1 | 15.6 | 12.0 | 71.0 | 16.9 | 1.09 | 0.78 | 0.46 | 0.02 | 0.16 |
Summary:
First I'll start out with the positives for Monroe; he played a larger role in Gtown's offense than any of the other big guys, and while he wasn't as efficient from the field as one would like, he did a good job of drawing fouls, which kept his TS% at an acceptable level. He had the most assists, and the best A/TO ratio. Also, he created more steals than the other big guys, which suggests good lateral fluidity.
Now the other side of the coin, and why I prefer the alternatives: The other guys blow Monroe out of the water when it comes to blocking shots, and they all rebounded at a higher rate, and at a much higher rate when it came to offensive rebounding. Shot-blocking and offensive rebounding are hugely important stats for projecting college PF/C prospects. Blocking shots is probably the most important "athletic indicator"-- because it tells a great deal about a PF/C prospects explosiveness and timing. Offensive rebounding is the best "hustle" stat-- telling about aggressiveness (and it shows an understanding of angles/positioning).
A PF/C prospects who is weak at both offensive rebounding and shot-blocking is troubling, because it suggests both a lack of aggressiveness and a lack of NBA caliber athleticism. Players with this combination of issues typically have limited ceilings (i.e. the very best case scenario is a guy roughly as productive as LaMarcus Aldridge).
On top of this is the fact that Monroe was the most turnover prone player (by possession). This is another issue where taken on its own, it might not be much of a concern, especially if the player is contributing in a number of areas (think Evan Turner). But if a player already has several holes in his game, adding a high turnover rate makes the prospect even riskier.
Finally, just take a look at the comparison between Monroe and Villanueva... They are remarkably similar players. CV actually has slightly better rebounding numbers(!), while Monroe has the edge with assists, but they are very close in most categories. Why draft an offensive-minded big when CV's contract runs another four years?
69 comments
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2 recs |
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2nd best PG prospect in the draft?
Good hoopsanalyst article about Jeremy Lin. He looks like a surprisingly solid prospect. There's been reports of the Pistons having workouts with PG's/SG's. I'd rather have Varnado, Faried and/or Parakhouski, but if Jod has his heart set on drafting a guard, Lin is IMO the best of the PG/SG's who will probably be available.
Jod's completely random surprise pick?
via mlive.com, some random fringe prospects are coming into Detroit for a workout. One of the players has a rumored "guarantee" from a team picking in the top half of the 2nd round...
"Osiris Eldridge is an interesting prospect in that he's basically coming out of nowhere - at least as far as players I had been following for the upcoming draft. Eldridge, a 6-foot-3 guard out of Illinois State, was named to the Missouri Valley Conference's All-Defensive team and First-Team All-MVC as well as turning heads on his way to earning All-Tournament honors at the Portsmouth Invitational Tournament. He's currently training in Chicago with world-renowned trainer Tim Grover as well as working his jumper with Tim "The Target" Sullivan, though Draft Express noted that "he actually has decent shooting mechanics and can get his shot off whenever he pleases." Problem is, he seemed to look for his shot a bit too often as he attempted over six three-pointers per game this season (he made 35%, so it's not all bad). USBasket.com, not typically noted for breaking news, has reported that Eldridge already has a "promise" as a second round draft pick (with Detroit being one of the possible suitors)."
I'm confused.
Hoopsanalyst Draft Preview
We're all basically draft junkies at this point, and over the years I've always been impressed by how good Ed Weiland has been at picking the cream from the crap (think of him as the opposite of Chad Ford and David Thorpe). Weiland's more in-depth breakdowns are coming later, but this is a good start.
Draft Prospect Ranking
Ed Weiland of Hoopsanalyst's updated prospect rankings. Fun read for draft junkies.
Simple. Logical. Trade Idea.
This occurred to me after reading a little about the potential McGrady to the Knicks deals. We can make the exact same trade, but on a smaller scale.
Knicks get: Kwame, Chucky, Summers.
Pistons get: Jeffries, the Knicks 2010 2nd round pick, and the right to switch 1st round picks with the Knicks in 2011 or the Knicks unprotected 2012 1st round pick.
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The Knicks get their cap space to try and sign two free agents.
The Pistons get some future assets, which could end up being really valuable if the Knicks don't end up with Lebron or Wade, and continue sucking. Also, Jeffries contract expires after next season, so he's potentially a decent trade asset down the road.
This seems like the type of long term trade that can really pay off. The risk is that the Knicks end up putting together a super team with Lebron and someone else, but IMO the possibility of that happening is fairly remote, and if two big superstars really want to play with each other, they can probably come up with a way to arrange it with or without anyone's help... In which case, everyone else will be screwed anyway, so we may as well get something out of it.
Great Hoopsanalyst article
Very interesting article comparing the relative fortunes of Ty Thomas and Aldridge. It's especially important in light of the Pistons upcoming lottery pick.
One More Trade Idea: Complicated and Probably Crazy
Alright, here's my weekly bit of procrastination in the form of another trade idea: Trade! and Trade!
So yeah, this is actually two ideas, a small one and a big one based off the same idea. Neither is probably very likely, and they might not make total sense, but what the hell...
Smaller version:
Detroit gets: Elton Brand, and Philly's unprotected 1st round pick, and 2nd round pick.
Philly gets: CV, Daye, Kwame.
Detroit takes on a lot of future payroll, but gets a high lottery pick. Philly saves lots of money down the road, gets a good prospect in Daye to make up for losing their pick, and picks up a young veteran in CV signed to a much more reasonable contract than Brand.
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Larger version:
Detroit gets: Elton Brand, Philly's unprotected 1st round pick and their 2nd round pick.
Philly gets: CV, Daye, Kwame, and: Amare, Earl Clark, J Collins, Taylor Griffin.
Phoenix gets: Iguodala, Dalembert.
Detroit reasoning is the same; take on lot of payroll, but get a high lottery pick (basically doubles our chances of coming away with Cousins). Brand could also be pretty good if Kander can heal him up.
Philly gets Amare, still gets CV, two prospects in Daye and Clark, and completely straightens out their salary situation by trading away Dalembert/Brand/Iguodala.
Phoenix: They are said to be very high on Iguodala, so they get their man and Dalembert, for Amare, Clark and spare parts. If they're really high on Clark, maybe he could be substituted for a different player, I think Dudley works as well, I doubt Philly would hold out just because Clark wasn't included.
EDIT- third possibility: Trade?
Basically; subs Max in for CV, sends Wilcox to Phoenix and Barbosa to Philly, subtracts Clark from the trade.
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So what's everyone think? Should Jod be willing to double down on lottery picks? This seems like the draft to do it in, as there are a couple of guys who are looking very good. Downside is obviously that Brand's contract is insane. Would Philly and Phoenix pull the trigger? Would Jod? Would you?
I think I'd do it. With how our current roster is constructed, we're going to need to hit a home run on a high lottery pick to become a contender. This doubles our chances of doing that. It comes at a significant financial cost, and is obviously risky, but IMO it's probably worth taking the chance.
Some interesting DBB advertisements
Is anyone else's DBB home screen about 63% covered with ads for K-Y products at the moment...?
Updated Prospect Ranking
Updated, in-season prospect ranking by Ed Weiland of hoopsanalyst. After the college season is over he goes into much greater depth and compares players position by position, but I always enjoy his in-season updates because they give you an idea of which under the radar guys are worth watching.
Tired of trade ideas? Here's another!
Here's a trade idea for the new week: Blockbuster!
Players involved:
Detroit:
Outgoing: Rip, Tay, Kwame, Daye.
Incoming: David Lee, Eddy Curry, Jared Jeffries.
Boston:
Outgoing: Ray Allen.
Incoming: Rip, Tay.
New York:
Outgoing: Lee, Curry, Jeffries.
Incoming: Ray Allen, Daye, Kwame.
Reasonability?:
Detroit: Gets the best player in the deal, Lee. A player who is a legit frontcourt building block, and is still somewhat underrated, and won't command a Bosh or Stoudemire level contract. Also, Curry and Jeffries contracts only go through next season, so we would be cutting the long-term cost of Rip's deal, and have movable assets next season in Jeffries and Curry's expiring contracts. Lee and CV would be a bad pairing defensively, but I would be willing to put that gripe aside because the simplest solution to our lack of interior defenders is through the draft.
Knicks: They get rid of both Jeffries and Curry's contracts, allowing them to offer max contracts to two guys. They might lose Lee anyway, so using him to get rid of their two worst contracts I think would appeal to them.
Boston: They go all-in for the next 2-3 years, until KG's contract expires in 2012. Something else might need to be thrown in the deal to get them to pull the trigger (MFWB...? or Nate Robinson?). They've apparently started shopping Ray again, and they might be able to get more for his expiring contract, but if nothing else develops, this trade is similar to the one they (might have) offered this summer. It gives them a pair of "battle tested" vets with championship experience. Gives them a lot of match-up flexibility with smallball line-ups like Rondo/Rip/Pierce/Tay/KG. etc...
Overall:
Detroit loses a good prospect and a couple mainstays, but gets a very good frontcourt player and more future flexibility. Boston gets a pair of players who if they're healthy and start producing closer to their career norms could help them in the playoffs. Knicks clear salary cap space for this off-season. Win/Win/Win? Lose/Lose/Lose? Who does/doesn't bite?
Kelly Dwyer on being a fan
This is a good one.
over 2 years ago
Gabe F-B
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Another another trade idea
This one might actually work: Trade time.
Players involved:
Detroit: Tay, Kwame, Wilcox, Atkins, Summers, Daye.
for
Philly: Iguodala, Dalembert.
That's it.
Our perspective:
We're adding another long-term contract in Iggy, and it would suck to lose Daye. But, Dalembert fits a huge need (IMO he's also pretty underrated), and Iggy is a terrific player and would fit really well with our current core. He's the type of glue guy that can make a line-up with Ben Gordon and CV actually work.
Philly's perspective:
Money. It would save them about $4m immediately (EDIT- would it? they'd be taking back $4m less salary for this season, but is some of that money already paid?). Plus, it would save them about $10m next season (that's assuming Wilcox picks up his option). They get a good prospect in Daye, and if Tay puts himself back together, they get a decent SF to keep things together while their young guys get experience.
Overall:
Seems like it could work for both sides. If Philly can't convince one of the teams with a big expiring contract (Cavs or Rockets mainly) to do a deal, I think this would be a workable second option for them. They still save a bunch of money in the short, medium, and long-term, and they get a solid prospect in Daye. For us, we fill our biggest need going forward (a defensive minded center), and get a great all around player who would fit nicely with the rest of our core.
I like it, what do you guys/gals think? Does Philly do this? Does Jod? Is it a win/win?
Very OT: Chris Matthews inserts entire lower torso in mouth
Sorry for political link, hope it doesn't offend anyone, but this is just...
"I forgot he was black tonight for an hour."
OT: IPad
Looks pretty cool...
Trade ideas are fun! Amar'e edition
Here's a trade idea I cooked up after reading the rumor that Jod might be interested in jumping into the Amare "sweepstakes." He's not my favorite player in the world, but I do think he could be a good fit on the team, and would help Stuckey out a lot (not to mention, he'd make a good pairing with Big Ben).
Anyway, here it is: Trade Machine!
The players involved:
Detroit outgoing: CV, Tay.
Detroit Incoming: Amare, Collins.
Cleveland outgoing: Big Z.
Cleveland incoming: CV, Taylor Griffin.
Phoenix outgoing: Amare, Collins, Griffin.
Phoenix incoming: Big Z, Tay.
Reasoning:
Detroit: We get a better PF (and sometimes C) who is enough of a threat from midrange and off the pick and roll that he can help open up driving lanes for Stuckey. Also, we free up the SF position for JJ and Daye to take over full-time.
Cleveland: They get a prototypical stretch PF, which by all accounts seems to be what they are after. CV's young, and signed to a long term deal, which could appeal to them if they think his guaranteed presence will help convince Lebron to stay. Also, all they're giving up is Big Z's contract, and Phoenix could probably be convinced to just buy him out.
Phoenix: They get cap relief and a decent SF. Also, with Tay, next season they'll have a ton of expiring contracts and can prepare to go into full rebuild mode for the post-Nash era. But, for them to pull the trigger I would guess that at least one 1st round draft pick would have to be included.
Believability:
I think it could happen if Detroit would be willing to throw in a first round pick. That would suck. But, if we could convince Phoenix to take our first round pick from next years draft instead of this years, then it wouldn't be a deal breaker for me. Also, we could lobby the Cavs to give up a future pick or two since they're really not giving up much talent otherwise (this could appeal to the Suns, because on the off chance that Lebron signs somewhere else, those future picks would suddenly become very valuable).
Downside:
Amare wants to get paid. Is he worth a huge contract? Depends how huge. Depends on if he's healthy, and if he stays motivated, and a bunch of other risky factors. There is obviously a significant risk involved either way in this type of trade- he could sign elsewhere for crazy money and we end up with nothing, or we give him a big contract and he never lives up to it.
Overall:
It's not a slam-dunk from our perspective if Phoenix insists on a 1st round pick from us, and there are some other scenarios that I'm also fond of (especially Waulie's), but if I were Jod and this trade presented itself, I'd pull the trigger unless Phoenix insisted on getting our unprotected 1st round pick in this upcoming draft.
A future core of Stuckey/Gordon/Daye/JJ/Amare/? (hopefully a C we draft with our first round pick) seems promising.
What do you guys/gals think?
For: NBA Draft Junkies
I've read Ed Weiland's draft articles, on hoopsanalyst.com, for years. He's consistently been the best. The focus is on stats, but he is good at keeping other variables in mind- age, teammates, etc... This is his first article about the 2010 draft class.
Ben and Charlie
Warning: this post will contain stats.
I've had several lengthy debates centering around Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva since the moment we signed them. I think they're both good, useful players. I don't think they're worth what we are paying them. But rather than just complain about them, I'll try to illustrate why I think signing them for a combined $90m+ was a mistake.
The best way I can think of to do this is create a comparison of somewhat similar players, who were also free agents and signed for less money and to shorter contracts, and show their career stats through last season; which was obviously all the information Jod had at the time he made the signings. Then compare their current seasons and see how they are playing (all of this is with the caveat that Gordon/CV have been dinged up).
Charlie Villanueva:
There were several players who I thought could provide similar production to CV, and were available for significantly less money.
Here are CV's career stats through last season, along with three other PF's who were free agents this off-season: Drew Gooden, Hakim Warrick, and Channing Frye.
CV is the youngest (24) and the highest scorer by PPG's and points per/36 minutes- we signed him for roughly $35m over five years. Gooden is the oldest (27) and best rebounder- he signed a one year deal with Dallas for $4.5m. Warrick is the second oldest (26) and the most efficient scorer- he signed a one year deal with the Bucks for $3.5m. Frye is below the other three in most categories, but he came with the cheapest price tag- just $2m/year for two years.
Now click here for their stats from this season. The results:
Pretty consistent from what we saw through their careers: CV is still the highest scorer both by PPG's and points per/36. Gooden is still the best rebounder. The biggest shift is Frye has seen an abnormally huge jump in his efficiency and currently has a far better TS% and eFG% than the other three.
Comparing advanced metrics: CV has the highest PER at 16.7, the other three each have about a 14.7 PER. Frye has the highest WinShare, CV the second highest; though considering how WinShares works, and the fact that CV has played more minutes than Gooden and Warrick, I'd guess the three are about equal by that metric. By ORtg and DRtg, Frye again looks the best with O: 120 and D: 109, Warrick is at O: 106 and D: 106, Gooden is at O: 101, D: 101, and CV is at O: 107, D: 108. A pretty negligible difference between the three guys not named Frye.
Ben Gordon:
First of all, in fairness to Gordon, this was a particularly horrible free agent class of SG's. Though, that does beg the question of why Jod went after the only highly regarded SG on the market when we already had Rip and Afflalo.
Anyway, here are Gordon's career stats through last season, along with the career stats of two other small scorer/shooters, and a third decent SG, who were all free agents: Nate Robinson (he was restricted, but IMO a multi-year offer would not have been matched), Von Wafer, and Rodney Carney.
Gordon scored the most points per game and per/36, was the most efficient scorer, and had the second highest assist rate, but he had the lowest rebound rate of the four and highest turnover rate (somewhat excusable because he also had the highest usage %), and he was the oldest player at 25- we signed him for around $55m over five years.
Robinson scored the second most points per game and per/36, he also dished the highest rate of assists, and was the second best rebounder- he re-signed with the Knicks for a single year at $4m and will be unrestricted this offseason. Wafer and Carney are below the other two in most categories, though they both had very low turnover rates- Carney signed for the minimum (about 800K), and Wafer signed overseas, but quickly tried to come back to the Rockets for about $1m, but failed his physical and is now in limbo.
Here are Gordon, Nate, and Carney's stats from this season, and Wafer's stats from just last season (I'm including Wafer because he increased his efficiency when given a larger role with Houston, and fits the "player-type" of "bench scorer").
Gordon still scores the most per game, but despite being benched for a few weeks, Nate now has a slightly higher pts per/36 minutes than Gordon, and has been more efficient. Carney hasn't played a ton of minutes, but has improved his 3 pt%. Wafer obviously hasn't done anything this year, but last season, when given the role of "designated bench scorer" he showed himself to be fairly effective and efficient (about equal to Gordon's current efficiency this season).
Gordon is without a doubt the best player among them (though IMO Nate is very underrated). The question is, how much better is he?
What is a better use of resources: 800K spent on someone like Rodney Carney and $12m spent on David Lee, or $11m spent on Ben Gordon and $3m spent on Chris Wilcox?
Or, what about a three year contract at $4-5m/year for Nate Robinson and a two year deal at 4m/year for Gooden, leaving us with $11m still left to spend? And don't say, "we already had MFWB." I've watched Houston play Brooks and Lowry together plenty of times this season, and seen them cause havoc with their dribble penetration. IMO, Nate also would have been an amazing combo with Stuckey.
Wrapping it up:
Ultimately my problem with Jod signing Gordon and CV isn't that I think they are bad players, it's that IMO they are somewhat common "player-types." While Gordon is very, very, very good at his specialty: deep shooting, there are always limited players, like Von Wafer, available who can perform a reasonable approximation of Gordon's strengths, but have a much lower price tag.
IMO, the same is true of CV. Yes, he was the most versatile scorer of the available PF's. But we signed him to a much longer and more expensive contract than the other available PF's received, and IMO it is not clear that he is much of an upgrade over players like Drew Gooden or Hakim Warrick (I don't think Frye's improvement was foreseeable, but IMO his low price tag should have been a draw for us).
I see both CV and Gordon as "floor spacing" role-players. There is clearly value in that, but they are being paid as more than just role-players. With the number of holes we had to fill on our roster this past offseason, I would have really, really preferred a more "bargain basement" approach.
Jod could have signed at least two, possibly three of: Gooden, Warrick, Frye, Robinson, and Carney, while still having enough money left to make a run at someone like David Lee.
We'll see how Jod's next few moves work out, and how he continues to rebuild the roster. Even though I'm admittedly not crazy about the steps Jod's taken so far, I'm hoping for the best along with everyone else.
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Langlois-isms of the Week
Keith Langlois is the editor of the official Pistons website, so when he writes fluff pieces, he's just doing his job. I understand this. But he has a tendency to write some goofy things, usually earnestly and unintentionally. Every once in a while I like to point some of those goofy things out.
From this Thursday's mailbag:
Donna (Southfield, Mich.): [snip] I would like to see us get a young big in the draft and I like what I see so far from Solomon Alabi and DeMarcus Cousins and hope Derrick Favors might fall. What’s your take on those players?
Langlois: [snip] By most accounts, the Pistons can forget about Favors unless they get into the top three. [snip] Cousins apparently has some character and motivation issues that could push him out of the lottery altogether, but he’s supposedly a big-time talent. Joe Dumars made a point after last season of placing greater emphasis on character and he’s ecstatic with the results. If the Pistons love Cousins’ talent and he’s still around when they pick, then it will come down to a decision on whether they can afford to take on one character risk in a locker room of good soldiers. Those are the decisions of enormous gravity that can make or break the careers of GMs.
This is a minor-classic Langlois-ism. Zero explanation as to why JOD is "ecstatic with the results," just an illogical assurance that he is.
Then we have his recent Texas Tussle article:
But there were clear indications of a competitive fire to the Pistons collectively after a run of moribund performances and plenty of encouraging signs from players dragged down by the injury bug that’s torn through the locker room with all the virulence of bubonic plague.
and:
But on this night, they didn’t strike the pose of a team whose confidence had been shattered, taking it to a Dallas team chastened by a blowout loss Sunday against the Lakers from the start, unlike so many games during the nine-game skid when they dug double-digit holes for themselves early and only rarely mustered the resolve to crawl out.
This is a time tested Langlois-ism. Spice up an otherwise functional, workmanlike recap of a regular season loss with random injections of pseudo-literary diction.
Now for a couple past Keith classics:
This is from the article about Walter Sharpe, just after we drafted him, titled He's good man, he's good:
Joe Dumars was smiling like a guy who knows something about Walter Sharpe that nobody else knows. He watched “a ton of tape” on him and brought him in to work out, holding him over for a second day.
“He’s good, man, he’s good,” Dumars said. “Handles it, shoots it, long and smooth.”
Probably the highest level of unintentional innuendo ever...
From the article about Wilcox, after we signed him, titled Fresh Start:
A few dozen of Joe Dumars’ peers around the NBA furrowed their brows over the weekend with the news that Chris Wilcox was about to become a Piston, a signing that multiple media reports say is due this week. Are they sure Wilcox is about to realize the tantalizing potential they first saw in him as a sophomore at Maryland, when he helped carry the Terps to the 2002 NCAA title and became the eighth pick in that year’s draft as a teenager?
Here's a fun bit of mental aerobics: Try to imagine R.C. Buford nervously furrowing his brow after hearing that Joe Dumars signed Chris F-ing Wilcox.
And finally, my favorite type of Langlois-ism: The complete non-use of his insider status, giving the fans nothing more than the most limited of informational nuggets and passing them off as Interesting:
Interesting conversation with Scott Perry, Pistons vice president, on Wednesday afternoon. We were talking about Rodney Stuckey and the tough lessons he absorbed in his first season as the starter... [snip]
He said Stuckey is aware of the way public sentiment has shifted over the past year, from the giddy highs of proclaiming him a breakout star following his terrific 2008 postseason run to the sudden skepticism that he can evolve into an elite point guard. I asked what Stuckey really thought about being bypassed by USA Basketball for an invitation to the U.S. Select Team camp this summer while 2008-09 rookies like D.J. Augustin, Jerryd Bayless, O.J. Mayo and Eric Gordon were invited.
“It did not go unnoticed,” Perry said.
Thanks Keith!
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