IIn an attempt to get a break from the many +1 ranking threads, I figured I'd throw something out there as a quasi "smackdown" though I don't have the time or ability to do a long writeup on any of the players.

With Rizzo now in Chicago, there are four players that are still "basically" rookies who are looking to get meaningful playing time at 1b come 2012. Three of them are in the NL West, and one used to be.

• Anthony Rizzo
• Yonder Alonso
• Paul Goldschmidt
• Brandon Belt

Alonso ranked slightly ahead of Rizzo in the community list, but that was before Alonso left hitter-friendly Cincy and Rizzo moved to hitter-friendly Wrigley. Belt and Goldy aren't rookies anymore, so they weren't ranked.

So how do you rank them? (not just in fantasy - but actual baseball)

Alonso didn't have elite minor league numbers (.293/.370/.466) and showed the least power of any of the four in the minors (~.170 IsoP) (though was great in limited action last year -.330/.398/.545 in 100 PA), but walked at around a 10% clip with solid double powers and didn't strike out much (~15%). He's 24

Goldschmidt absolutely had the most power with a .303 IsoP, his walk (~10%) and K rates (~27%) weren't ideal, but his last year in the minors was amazing with a 92/82 K/BB in 455 AA plate appearances. During 177 PA in the majors last year, the power was there (.225 IsoP), but so were the ks (30%) and walk rate was a little over 11%. He's 23.

Brandon Belt has been moved around a bit, and Huff is still there, but for the sake of argument let's call him a 1b. Really tore up the minors during two years there with a .343/.457/.596 line including a .250 IsoP and nearly identical 17% K and BB rates in 825 PA. Really struggled in the majors last year (though admittedly he didn't have consistent playing time). He had a 27% K rate and a 9.5% walk rate. He did hit 9 homers in 209 PA for a .190 IsoP. He's 23.

Rizzo's .296/.366/.514 minor league line was really pulled up last year (in the PCL) with a .331/.404/.652. Prior to last year, he had a .170 IsoP, and last year brought it up to .220. He had a walk rate just under 10% in the minors and a 21% k rate. He really struggled last year with a 30% k rate and 10 XBH (including one homer) in 153 PA. Though he did have a 14% walk rate. He is also the youngest of the group at only 21

So how would rank them moving forward for the next 5 or so years?

I think I'd probably go Belt, Goldsmidt, Rizzo, Alonso. I really like Belt's on base ability over Goldy's extra power potential since Goldy's power comes with a risk of 25-30% k rates.

This is a quasi fantasy question, but I figure during the off-season it is a little less hated than usual.

 

And even if you don't know/play strat-o-matic/sim baseball, it tries to align most with real baseball (thus includes defense, and other skills that fantasy doesn't include).

 

I have the #1 pick in my AL strat league and it is a really tough call.  Pineda, Trout, and Lawrie are my three big options.  There are no salaries at play and I get to keep players in perpetuity (can only keep 22 players a year out of  35 man roster)

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I'm surprised that this hasn't been posted yet.

I was hoping to see some debate on specific people not included or whatever.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/2011/07/midseason-top-50-prospects-list/

 

And here they are:

1    Bryce Harper, of, Nationals
2    Mike Trout, of, Angels
3    Matt Moore, lhp, Rays
4    Julio Teheran, rhp, Braves
5    Manny Machado, ss, Orioles
6    Martin Perez, lhp, Rangers
7    Shelby Miller, rhp, Cardinals
8    Jesus Montero, c, Yankees
9    Jameson Taillon, rhp, Pirates
10    Brett Lawrie, 3b, Blue Jays
11    Jacob Turner, rhp, Tigers
12    Jurickson Profar, ss, Rangers
13    Manny Banuelos, lhp, Yankees
14    Drew Pomeranz, lhp, Indians
15    Devin Mesoraco, c, Reds
16    Arodys Vizcaino, rhp, Braves
17    Wil Myers, of, Royals
18    Carlos Martinez, rhp, Cardinals
19    Tyler Skaggs, lhp, Diamondbacks
20    Desmond Jennings, of, Rays
21    Dee Gordon, ss, Dodgers
22    Hak-Ju Lee, ss, Rays
23    Jake Odorizzi, rhp, Royals
24    Aaron Hicks, of, Twins
25    Leonys Martin, of, Rangers
26    Dellin Betances, rhp, Yankees
27    Mike Montgomery, lhp, Royals
28    Wilin Rosario, c, Rockies
29    Travis d'Arnaud, c, Blue Jays
30    Matt Harvey, rhp, Mets
31    Jason Kipnis, 2b, Indians
32    Brett Jackson, of, Cubs
33    Gary Brown, of, Giants
34    Robbie Erlin, lhp, Rangers
35    Zack Wheeler, rhp, Giants
36    Kyle Gibson, rhp, Twins
37    Anthony Ranaudo, rhp, Red Sox
38    Taijuan Walker, rhp, Mariners
39    Zach Lee, rhp, Dodgers
40    Jarrod Parker, rhp, Diamondbacks
41    Jonathan Singleton, of/1b, Phillies
42    Brad Peacock, rhp, Nationals
43    Jarred Cosart, rhp, Phillies
44    Randall Delgado, rhp, Braves
45    Anthony Gose, cf, Blue Jays
46    Nolan Arenado, 3b, Rockies
47    Allen Webster, rhp, Dodgers
48    Matt Szczur, of, Cubs
49    Jedd Gyorko, 3b, Padres
50    Paul Goldschmidt, 1b, Diamondbacks

There has been about 10 different top 25/50/100 whatever lists posted on this board in the past couple weeks. So here's the aggregate list. I removed the outliers - those players that were only listed twice or less (basically, most of Dewey's list).

I also removed those players who have played a meaningful number of major league games since a lot of people didn't list them at all (so gone are guys like Chacin, Weiters, etc.)   Of those in the majors, remaining are Tillman, Matusz, Escobar, Latos

Here's the list

 

1. Jason Heyward
2. Jesus Montero
3. Michael Stanton
4. Justin Smoak
5. Buster Posey
6. Chris Tillman
7. Carlos Santana
8. Brian Matusz
9. Desmond Jennings
10. Logan Morrison
11. Madison Bumgarner
12. Jenrry Mejia
13. Pedro Alvarez
14. Dominic Brown
15. Fernando Martinez
16. Christian Friedrich
17. Mat Latos
18. Wade Davis
19. Matt LaPorta
20. Alcides Escobar
21. Hector Rondon
22. Kyle Drabek
23. Jarrod Parker
24. Yonder Alonso
25. Martin Perez
26. Michael Taylor
27. Chris Carter
28. Thomas Neal
29. Jaff Decker
30. Nick Weglarz

For Peavy? According to Heyman (who I don't believe a word he says) http://www.fannation.com/si_blogs/mlb_trade_talk/posts/72805-padres-agree-to-deal-peavy-to-white-sox

But also http://twitter.com/FollowThePadres says 4 pitching prospects:

Clayton Richard
Aaron Poreda
Dexter Carter
Adam Russell

Now it's on MLB trade rumors http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/07/peavy-dealt-to-white-sox-again.html

And I can't even get to 75 words with all of those links.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/futures-game/2009/268439.html

Wow, the American team might win infinity to nothing.

I'm surprised Villalona is on the team again, wasn't he on it last year? I thought BA tried to spread players out from year to year.

Also, interesting trivia, 7 of my fantasy team's 8 minor league players will be in this game.

Now I ask you, is that tripe I wrote under the link better than just typing "FILLER FILLER FILLER, I HATE THE 75 WORD LIMIT?"

Since I've seen others on the board posting for "who should I pick", here's how my league's supplemental draft has played out so far

PS. Foolishly, people drafted Pedro Alvarez, Gordon Beckham, and Brett Wallace in the regular draft - won't go into the details of keeper issues - but at least that's why they aren't listed here.

PPS. The only people who qualify are players that are a) signed by a major league team - so no Strasburgh and b) have never played a major league game - so no Holland. So it's mostly going to be 2008 draftees and guys who were marginal prospects last year but improved their rankings during the winter.

1) Tim Beckham

2) Buster Posey

3) Justin Smoak

4) Eric Hosmer

5) Brian Matusz

6) Yonder Alonso

7) Aaron Hicks

8) JP Arencibia

9) Michel Ynoa

10) Brett Lawrie

11) Dominic Brown

12) Dayan Viciedo

 

2nd round order:

1) Kyle Blanks

2) Junichi Tazawa

3) Matt Dominguez

4) Aaron Poreda

5) Kyle Skipworth

6) Daniel Bard

7) Daryl Jones

8) Tyler Flowers

9) Sean West

10) David Cooper

Two teams stopped picking because they had a full roster

 

3nd round order:

1) Phillipe Aumonte

2) Jordan Walden

starting to peter out. Some of the good guys still left: Jason Castro, Todd Frazier, Andrew Lambo, Michael Saunders, Jason Donald, Lou Marson, Michael Main, Wilson Ramos

Jennings hasn't played professional baseball since August. He had a "minor knee injury" and ended up missing the rest of the season, and now apparently (according to rotoworld.com) hurt his back in March and was supposed to be out "4-6 weeks". Now he supposedly has a shoulder injury and has "no ETA". Is this guy made of glass? Is there anything else to the story? It seems odd to have "no ETA" unless it's a dramatically serious injury.

Really cool (though analytical) paper about the success, and therefore "worth" of prospects by Victor Wang.

It's from August, but I hadn't seen or heard about it before.  While this is part of a subscription-only newsletter, I'm not concerned about this being copywrited, because in this Hardball Times Article (which is cool in and of itself):  http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-bright-side-of-losing-santana/ the author links the original paper, here: http://www.philbirnbaum.com/btn2007-08.pdf

Basically, Wang looked at the prospects in the top 100 of BAs lists through every year in the 90s.  And then looked at their performance in the first six years of their careers.

Looking only at top 10 prospects:  For hitters, the likelihood of them becoming stars (based on WARP) was 17%, bust 21%.  For pitchers it was 4% stars and over 50% busts.  For prospects 11-25, the bust rate increased for both subgroups.

Following up on Bravesin07/PujolsJunkie's posts about cool stat figures, how about the other end?

Let's keep this to consensus top 50 prospects (obviously there is no "consensus" on this, but figuring our top 25, plus some leeway around those who will likely finish around the top 50.

Under .260 average (full season) = Cam Maybin
Under 10 HR (full season) = Ellsbury
Under 30 SB (career)= Travis Snider
Over 162Ks (batter, season) = Cam Maybin
at least 17 losses = Carlos Carrasco
at least 100 BB's (pitcher) = Franklin Morales
Era over 5.00 (full season) = Radhams Liz
Fewer than 100 career games (pitcher) = Nick Adenhart
Fewer than 1,000 career AB = Jose Tabata
Least career major league service time = Jose Tabata

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/12/sports/baseball/12mitchell.html?em&ex=1197608400&en=55cc34 ecc24a60f6&ei=5087%0A

Steroid Report Expected to Cite About 50 Players

"...What it contains will be officially revealed Thursday, when Mitchell holds a 2 p.m. news conference in Manhattan followed by a separate news conference by Commissioner Bud Selig to discuss the findings. But two people who are familiar with Mitchell's investigation, and his findings, said that the report would contain the names of more than 50 active and former major league players who are linked to the use of performance-enhancing drugs....

....Both said many of the names in the report are directly tied to information provided to Mitchell's investigators by Kirk Radomski, a former bat boy and clubhouse attendant for the Mets who pleaded guilty to steroid distribution in April.

In Radomski's plea agreement, he stated that he provided dozens of players with steroids, human growth hormone and stimulants from 1995 through 2005...."

"...The evidence that Mitchell will use to cite players is expected to be documentary in nature -- canceled checks, shipping slips, phone records -- and not based on positive drug tests...."

Feel free to speculate which all star players (since nobody cares about anyone else) that will be listed among the 50 or chide people who are speculating about it.

The key facts are that the source worked for the Mets and he was supplying between '95 and '05.

I think Piazza is a lock.  I also bet that Arod will be mentioned.

this year's FA class isn't really that interesting, but the 2008 off-season is shaping up be like the 2000 off-season.

And because of that, next year's trade deadline looks like it has the potential to have some really game-changing talents changing teams.  Given the list of talents below, I think a lot of teams will be much more likely to part with some elite level prospects to get these guys.  Don't get too attached to your teams' favorite prospects.

Guys currently tabbed as potential free agents after 2008:

P:  Johan, Peavy, Sabathia, Lackey, AJ Burnett, Rich Harden, Ben Sheets
OF:  Crawford, Dunn, Wily Mo Pena, Manny, Vlad
IF:  Texeira, Furcal, Renteria, Glaus, Chipper, Orlando Hudson, Sexson, Felipe Lopez, Blaylock

The pitching especially looks amazing.

And note: between now and the end of the '08 season, the Yankees will have about $80MM coming off the books in Clemens, Giambi, Mussina, Pavano, Farnsworth, Abreu, and Pettite.  That $80MM number will be decreased by whatever it costs to extend A-rod, and sign new contracts with Posada and Rivera.  But it will still likely be about $60-%70MM.  Enough for at least two, probably three superstar additions

Remember him?

In his last 10 games dating back to the middle of July (since he missed about 3 weeks with a non-pitching related bruised elbow):

16 2/3 innings
14 hits
5 walks
23 ks
0.54 ERA

He has been typically pitching more than an inning per appearance.

He was supposed to be phenomenal when drafted, and then just fell apart in the majors last year as well as Spring Training, and the beginning of the season this year.

Is there hope still for him to be a dominant reliever/closer?

Just so that Giantsfan doesn't feel obligated to start it every day.

The big thing I'm eyeing is Gallardo - Marmol.  Gallardo has a tough row to hoe if he's to try and keep pace with Lincecum's numbers.

Some games already concluded today.

Rasmus starting to pick it up with another 2-4

Longoria continues to hit for power (5th homer) and with patience (17th walk). Looks like I was wrong here.

Brandon Hynick is old (22) for A+ ball (so were Garza and Slowey last year), but he pitched a complete game 2 hitter with 7ks and no walks.  Now at 22:3 and zero ER in 32 innings

In a league that counts OPS instead of BA, and classifies LF, CF, RF positions, and allows you to keep a player for four years after they lose ROY eligibility (as a late 20th round pick)

How would you rank the following four? (from a fantasy perspective - knowing I can only have them for the first four full years of their careers)

Andrew Miller
Hunter Pence
Carlos Gonzalez
Matt Garza

I have all four of thse guys (along with Morales, Bruce, Rasmus, and Gallardo) and am in the middle of  trade discussions.  The guy keeps asking for Pence - I think I'd rather part with a pitching prospect and am leaning toward including Miller

edit: Can't really say what I'd be getting b/c someone else in my league reads this blog. Suffice the say, the value of what I'm getting is good - it's just a matter of which prospects I should be trying to make sure I hold.

This was mentioned by someone a few weeks ago, but didn't really get any responses, and Gonzalez has continued to produce.

So the question is, with Gonzalez at .318/.398/.530 through 198AB, what does it mean?  What is the level of competition in the VWL?

John has Carlos Gonzalez listed a B+.  

The concerns with Gonzalez (aside from laziness) was his atrocious plate discipline.

But through 53 games in the Venezuela Winter league, he's sitting at a 25/33 BB/K ratio which is dramatically improved from his last two years.  And I wouldn't say 200 AB is a small sample.

Even figuring in his improved plate discipline at his cup of coffee in AA last year (7BB/12K in 61 AB - could have been an anomoly), when comparing last year (464 AB) to his VWL so far (198 AB), he's improved his BB rate from 8% to 13% (it was about 8% in '05) and reduced his K rate from 25% to 17% (it was about 17% in '05).  

Really the only batting # that's regressed is his power with only a 10.6% XBH rate compared to 14.6% last season (it was 8.2% in '05).

So, anyone know what to make of this? (other than it's a slow day for me at work and I obviously own him in my fantasy league)

Is the VWL just easy competition?  Is Gonzalez turning a corner with his batting eye?  Would you give up the power for improved batting eye for development's sake?

Who would get the biggest contracts?  The Vernon Wells situation got some people talking.  Is he really the 8th best player in baseball?  

I argued, no probably not, but given his age and position scarcity, I bet if all players were immediately free agents, he'd be one of the top 10 picks (or sign one of the top 10 largest contracts)

So it got me thinking, who would be the 10 people?

I mean, guys like Manny Ramirez and Derek Jeter would get paid more than Reyes or Sizemore for this year, but they certainly wouldn't get a bigger contract, nor would they get drafted ahead of them.

It's probably easier to just think of a straight-forward draft, but thinking about the potential contracts might be pretty interesting as well.

Here are my ten:

1.  Pujols - still young and best hitter alive
   
2.  Santana - always healthy, still relatively young, and very consistent
   
3.  Howard - David Ortiz minus four years
   
4.  Arod - Still one of the best
   
5.  Reyes - over his injury bug, premium position, very young, and still improving
   
6.  Wells - I think he'd be the highest paid CF.  Barely 28, great fielder
   
7.  Wright - Fielding could improve, but fantastic, young hitter.
   
8.  Beltran - premium position, speed, power, everything.
   
9.  Sizemore - I may be short-changing him, or maybe he shouldn't even be on this list.  I keep going back and forth
   
10. Zambrano - tough to narrow down the list and pick him over so many other guys (Utley, Aramis, Soriano), but he's 26, is a complete horse, and never gets hurt in spite of Cubs' management
    

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/baseball/mlb/12/13/matsuzaka.signs/index.html

"Daisuke Matsuzaka has reached a deal with the Boston Red Sox for 6 years, $52 million, SI.com's Jon Heyman has learned. The deal contains escalator clauses that could bring it up to $60 million."

Certainly much better than anything I've seen bandied about until very recently.

And the fact that the last number I heard was Sox offer:  6/48 vs. Boras 6/66, it's a clear indication that Boras got whupped in this one.

Any know of a central site where I can find stats for some of the winter leagues?

First Inning doesn't have anything, but ondeckbaseball references Fall League stats a fair amount, and I don't know where they are getting it.

I know that Milb.com does have some stats for the AFL, but I was looking at hopefully all the leagues including those in the Dominican, Venezuela, Hawaii, etc.

Any help?

So, it's 16 months away, but who are your early choices for ROY AL and NL next year?

Top three picks

AL

1.  Kendrick
   
2.  Marte
   
3.  Garza

I think the Royals will keep Gordon and Butler down as long as possible, and I think Delmon struggles

NL

1.  Drew
   
2.  Tulo
   
3.  Milledge

I think Quentin has all around solid numbers, but nothing that jumps out.  Ditto LaRoche, and no pitchers really jump out at me as being there the full season