SBNation.com User Blog: GeauxHornets

The Payoff of Patience - A glance back at the '04-'05 Hornets, and a look to the Future

GeauxHornets — Fri, 23 Dec 2011 16:44:38 -0000

This won't be easy, Hornets fans.

I'll be the first to tell you that in trading Chris Paul, the face of the franchise for the past six years, I am happy with what the team received in return. In fact, I said so the very night the trade went down. However, that doesn't change the harsh reality of life after CP3 - the next couple years won't exactly make us feel like he never left. This team is going to struggle mightily. If you remember the year before the Hornets drafted Chris Paul - when the team went 18-64, landing the 4th overall pick in the draft - that's basically the kind of winning percentage we could end up achieving this season. Despite the strong likelihood of a poor record, this 2011-12 New Orleans Hornets team is completely different from the depressing, talent-barren team of 2004-05, and the differences give reason for considerable optimism.

2004 to the Present - A Brief Summary

At the '04-'05 season's trade deadline, disgruntled Hornets' biggest talent (and biggest ego), point guard Baron Davis, forced a trade out of New Orleans. The result was a team left with scraps and one which was quickly transformed into a shell of its former self. Want proof? Nineteen different players started a game for the Hornets that season. Nineteen! Four of those nineteen started more than half of the team's games - P.J. Brown (78), J.R. Smith (56), Lee Nailon (51), and Dan Dickau (46). The team's leading scorer was Nailon with 14.2 PPG, yet he sported just a 14.5 Player Efficiency Rating. Due to how the rating is calculated, the league average is set at 15. What kind of team has a leading scorer whose efficiency rating is below average? To make matters worse, this team wasn't exactly a young group blooming with potential. Even after trading long-time Hornet David Wesley to the Rockets two months into the season, this team was still one of the older ones in the NBA. Brown was 35, Nailon was 29, and many of the others receiving minutes would hardly be deserving of a bench spot on many other teams.

With such limited assets at its disposal, the Hornets' ability to rise from the depths of the Western Conference to within a game of the Western Conference Finals in just 3 seasons is nothing short of remarkable. When it came down to it, the Hornets had 4 main assets at the end of the 2004-05 season - 19 year old shooting guard J.R. Smith, 24 year old backup forward David West, 26 year old backup forward/center Chris Andersen, and the 4th overall pick in the 2005 NBA draft. Of the 4, the Hornets kept two (West and the pick, soon to become CP3), traded one (Smith was dealt with P.J. Brown in exchange for Tyson Chandler, a move that worked out very well), and lost one (Andersen was banned from the NBA for 2 years for failing a drug test). Throw in a vast overpayment for sharp-shooting forward Peja Stojakovic, and you have the 4-man core (CP/West/TC/Peja) of a team that, when healthy, could compete with anyone.

After that team's peak in 2007-08, it experienced a rough decline, largely due to two problems - injuries and bad contracts. The Hornets would not have made it as far as they did without Peja, but the fact remained that his deal was both for too much money and too much time. Typically, smaller markets tend to have to overpay for non-elite players in order to remain competitive, so it would be tough to fault the Hornets for doing so. That being said, $5 million+/year contracts for players like Morris Peterson and James Posey over multiple seasons were inexcusable deals, and more directly led to the team's rapid fall from grace. Eventually, the team arrived at the point where Chris Paul got tired of waiting for the front office to put together a squad with at least the same level of talent as the 2007-08 team, so he decided he wanted out. The Hornets granted him his wish, dealing him to the Clippers for Eric Gordon, Chris Kaman, Al-Farouq Aminu, and the Minnesota Timberwolves' 2012 1st round draft pick.

Differences between 2004-05 and 2011-12

So here we are, seemingly right back in a nearly identical position as we were stuck in seven years ago. Though things may seem exactly the same, I can guarantee you that this is anything but the same situation, and that is absolutely a good thing. Though rebuilding doesn't happen overnight and it takes a little luck in the draft (i.e. Atlanta drafting Marvin Williams 2nd overall instead of Paul) to expedite that process, this Hornets team is MILES ahead of the sorry excuse for an NBA team in 2004-05. Remember those four assets that the pre-CP3 team possessed? Double that for this team, and then some:

The 2011-12 Hornets have a young star, Eric Gordon, who is easily more talented than any player from the 2004-05 Hornets' roster.
This team will likely have two top-10 picks in the 2012 NBA draft, as opposed to just one in 2005.
Al-Farouq Aminu, another piece of the Chris Paul trade, was the 8th overall pick of the 2010 NBA draft and can be compared to the 2005 version of J.R. Smith in the type of potential-based value that he provides to the team.
Carl Landry and Chris Kaman are two above-average NBA big men with expiring contracts who could both bring in a decent return at the trade deadline; Belinelli is in the last year of his deal as well and could provide value to a team needing perimeter shooting help.
Jarrett Jack, Trevor Ariza, and Emeka Okafor are all solid players on contracts that may pay them slightly more than they're worth, but not too much so that a contending team wouldn't look to acquire one of them if the need presented itself.

From top to bottom, it is clear that the current Hornets' roster is much better positioned for long-term success than the roster of 7 years ago. If you're not yet convinced, see for yourself:

The included chart is a breakdown of each team's main 9-man rotation, including each player's age, minutes per game, and player efficiency rating. In order to get as accurate of a comparison as possible, the total team PER is a weighted average based on each player's MPG, not merely an average of each player's PER. (Note: for the remaining minutes unaccounted for by the top 9 rotation players, a PER of 11 is assumed for each team.) On the surface, a .5 total team difference in PER does not seem terribly significant. However, keep the following three points in mind:

The production from this year's Hornets team came from a group that was, on average, two years younger and less experienced than the 2004-05 unit; no current Hornets have even reached the age of 30. One more year of NBA experience should benefit most of the players on the roster; in fact, John Hollinger expects every player's PER to improve except for Jarrett Jack, Emeka Okafor, and Chris Kaman. Based on those projections and 2010-11 minutes per game, that 14.15 team PER would increase to 14.32.
The player weighing the 2004-05 team down the most, Lynch, was a league veteran who retired after the season. The player weighing the current Hornets team down, Aminu, was a rookie with lots of room to grow this season (as evidenced by Hollinger's projected PER jump for Aminu from 9.6 to 11.56.
Dan Dickau, Lee Nailon, P.J. Brown, and Jamaal Magloire all achieved PERs for that 2004-05 Hornets team that they would not reach again for the rest of their respective careers, a painfully obvious indication of their limited value as potential assets for other teams. In the cases of Dickau and Nailon, it was the highest PER of each of their entire careers. Simply put, the ceiling for each of these players was their performances as key pieces of a team that finished with 18 wins and 64 losses. If that doesn't sound very encouraging, that's because it isn't.

With all of the flaws (and as you can see, there were many) dragging down the future of this Hornets' franchise, it's important to understand that the only way that team could have turned things around within a window of even FIVE years would be through drafting a transcendent star. Luckily for New Orleans, Chris Paul was that star. As currently constructed, this Hornets team won't need to rely so much on luck; with what will likely be two top-10 draft picks in a deep class, the team will have two chances to grab its next star, along with another solid player to go along with it. Add those two picks to the young star they already have in Eric Gordon in addition to whatever the team can get back in its inevitable trade deadline deals, and the sky is the limit for this new era of the New Orleans Hornets. Stay on board, Hornets fans - we're making a short pit stop now, but it's going to be a fun and exciting ride back towards the top.

Hornets take down Grizzlies, 95-80, in final preseason tune-up - 12/21/11

GeauxHornets — Thu, 22 Dec 2011 00:36:28 -0000

In the first Hornets game in the New Orleans Arena in nearly 8 months, the team faced off the against Southwest division rival Memphis Grizzlies. Who they played wasn't really that important; as a fan, you just want to see quality minutes from the important players, and maybe a few pleasant surprises along the way. That being said, here are my 5 keys to take away from tonight's final Hornets preseason game.

Surprise! Eric Gordon can really shoot the ball, and he can play some solid defense too. The Commissioner contributed 17 points on 12 shots to go along with 4 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 blocks. He was consistently causing trouble on the defensive end as well, making his match-ups work for everything.
Jason Smith looks improved on both ends of the floor. He's always been a hustler, but his hustle turned into points and blocks tonight instead of turnovers and fouls. If he can stay disciplined and pick his spots, he could earn himself some valuable minutes off the Hornets' bench.
Quincy Pondexter is looking more active and aggressive than last season. I don't want to read too much into one game, but Q-Pon looked like a different player out there. He doesn't look lost on offense, and he was all over both the offensive and defensive glass. He finished with 14 points on just 7 shots, 12 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals, and a block. I don't expect quite that kind of regular offensive production from Quincy, but if he can make similar contributions on the glass, he can be an asset off the bench for New Orleans.
Chris Kaman is looking like the Hornets' go-to scorer in the post. With Okafor sitting this one out, Kaman more than picked up the slack inside, scoring 18 points in 22 minutes of action on only 10 shots. The biggest reason for his scoring production was due to his ability to get to the free throw line with regularity, converting 8 of 13 attempts. Kaman will continue to see big minutes, whether in the starting lineup or off the bench, and it would be a nice boost for the Hornets if he can continue to get to the charity stripe so frequently.
Team concept - good D leads to easy O. After the game's first 6 minutes, the Hornets were tenacious on defense, giving Memphis trouble all night. Frequently, that defense turned into fast break opportunities. Jarrett Jack wasn't the same scorer we saw in the Hornets' first preseason game, but he was a good facilitator in transition, assisting on multiple fast-break buckets.

A few notes from Coach Monty Williams' post-game presser:

Coach Williams knows who his backup point guard is going to be for the Hornets' season opener in Phoenix on the 26th. He wouldn't "give it away", as he put it, but I think it's reasonable to assume that Carldell "Squeaky" Johnson is the guy. He turns 29 next month, so he's not exactly glowing with upside, but he's done a good enough job in this brief preseason to earn a chance to prove his worth when the games begin to count. Either way, however, expect the Hornets to diligently pursue trade options for a more reputable backup PG. On most NBA teams, Squeaky is a 3rd string PG at best, not a backup.
As to be expected regardless of the actual results, Monty expressed his desire to see vast improvement from the team defensively. He said that he "saw an improvement from the first night, but certainly not where we want to be as a team."
When asked what he would most strongly emphasize before the team's first regular season game, Coach Williams immediately replied "offensive rebounding." Apart from Pondexter's impressive 6 offensive boards, the Hornets struggled in this regard, and Monty obviously thinks his team can do much better in that aspect of the game.
When asked how important the returning players would be to the chemistry of the team, he immediately brought up Jason Smith, and how he seemingly "came into camp with an attitude", as he is "still proving himself in the NBA."
Monty made a point to bring up Gordon's physicality on defense, as he's obviously a huge fan of his overall game. He noted that he expects Gordon to basically do his own thing on offense, and will obviously be relying on EG to put up lots of points.

All in all, tonight's game was a nice way for the Hornets to end the preseason, and can now head into the regular season with a little optimism. Lots of reasons to be optimistic about this team, both now and in the future. Below, you can find a few shots of the Hornets' new faces captured by our credentialed photographer, Matt McIntosh, for the game last night.

Hornets trade Chris Paul to Clippers for Gordon, Aminu, Kaman, 1st Round Pick

GeauxHornets — Thu, 15 Dec 2011 01:57:41 -0000

At long last, a trade has finally been passed through that will send Hornets' superstar point guard Chris Paul, along with two 2015 2nd round picks, to the Los Angeles Clippers. In return, New Orleans will receive 23 year old all-star shooting guard Eric Gordon, second-year small forward (and the 8th overall pick in the 2010 draft) Al-Farouq Aminu, veteran center Chris Kaman, and the Minnesota Timberwolves' 2012 first round draft pick which was owned by the Clippers.

While no player in the league apart from either LeBron James or Dwight Howard adds the kind of talent and value to a team that Paul provides, the Hornets absolutely made the best out of a bad situation by getting this deal done. The trade gives them 1) a young star in Gordon who is under contract for at least two more seasons, 2) a wing player in Aminu who has loads of potential, 3) a solid big man in Kaman in the final year of his contract who could potentially be dealt to a contender for other assets near the trade deadline, and 4) the draft pick of Minnesota's which will almost certainly be a top-10 pick, hopefully even top-5.

What does the deal mean for the Hornets in the short-term? Unfortunately, it'll be a rough year or two for this team in the standings. By making this trade, though, New Orleans set itself up very nicely to hit the ground running on its rebuilding process. This trade is just the first phase in what is likely to be a series of moves by the Hornets' front office in order to properly position the team to succeed in the long-term. The best pathway to long-term success, especially for small-market teams such as the Hornets, is by building through the draft and creating a young core that can grow together (just ask the Oklahoma City Thunder). Every player on the roster will likely be made available if it can bring back younger talent and additional draft picks in order to really rebuild this team from the ground up. It's hard to predict anything at this point, but there are a ton of possibilities now, and it will be incredibly exciting to follow as it all plays out.

To sum things up - I am really excited with the trade. We are about to see a total overhaul of this Hornets franchise, from a new owner all the way down to totally new players. Are we more than likely going to miss the playoffs this season? Yeah, we'll probably be near the bottom of the standings. The result, however, is two top-10 first round draft picks in a deep 2012 draft class - and that's just the worst case scenario. Depending on the lottery and the records of both the Hornets and the T-Wolves, we could be staring at the top two picks in the draft next summer. Obviously, the chances of that happening are slim, but regardless, those two picks will be very solid and will likely go a long way in helping New Orleans turn things around as quickly as possible.

I am certain it will be a focal point of another post in the future, but best of luck to Chris Paul (except when he plays against us). I cannot wait to see what he and Blake Griffin can accomplish together, and would love nothing more than for that duo to turn the Lakers into the irrelevant Los Angeles team. It's been a phenomenal six years, and he's done more to help revive professional basketball in the city of New Orleans than any of us could have ever hoped. From all of us to you, CP3 - thanks for everything, and good luck.

CP3 to Orlando?! We would NEVER... wait a second

GeauxHornets — Fri, 02 Dec 2011 07:26:56 -0000

Earlier tonight, Matt Moore of CBSSports.com threw out a bold idea - that, even after Chris Paul's apparent NYC demands, Orlando should still try to trade for him. On the surface, this idea probably seems ludicrous from both sides. Orlando would be acquiring a player who has made it known that he plans on relocating to the Big Apple when his contract expires, and the Magic don't exactly have the trade chips that a rebuilding team would covet. However, if we dig deeper, we can see that maybe this idea isn't so crazy after all.

So, to briefly paraphase Matt, the Magic would agree to this trade for two reasons which are highly correlated. They make the deal to win a championship this season, and worry about repercussions later. The ultimate goal, besides winning a championship, is that Paul and Howard have so much fun bringing a title to Orlando that they both decide to stick around and try and win some more. The latter of the two trade motives is a long shot, but what do they have to lose?

As for the Hornets - besides Orlando's first round pick that they would undoubtedly command (although it likely wouldn't be a terribly valuable one since it'd be linked to a suddenly powerful Magic squad), they possess some of the last guys you would name when trying to think of players to rebuild around. Let's list them.

Player (2011-12 salary, years remaining)

Gilbert Arenas ($19.3 million, 3 years) - Likely to be amnestied. Total waste of space, see: 2011 playoffs. No further explanation necessary.

Dwight Howard ($18.1 million, 1 year) - ...yeah right. Get real. Not now, not ever. No way.

Hedo Turkoglu ($11 million, 3 years) - Vastly overpaid, poor-defending small forward. Think Peja with better handles, a worse 3-point shot, and everything else basically the same. Now ask yourself why that player is making 8 figures every year until he's 35. No thanks.

Jameer Nelson ($8.6 million, 2 years) - Former all-star, but realistically just an above average, slightly overpaid point guard. Could be an asset for a contending team needing an upgrade at the point.

J.J. Redick ($6.75 million, 2 years) - Very good shooter, decent defender and ball-handler. Not quite worth the money he's making, but not nearly overpaid enough to be looked over by a team in the playoff hunt that needs a shooter.

Brandon Bass ($4.25 million, 2 years) - Originally drafted by the Hornets out of LSU, Bass has turned into a solid backup power forward and spot starter. He's essentially a slightly less talented Carl Landry; not as good of a scorer, but slightly better defensively (though that isn't really saying much). Bass could absolutely help a playoff team looking for a solid big man off the bench.

Chris Duhon ($3.25 million, 3 years) - Incredibly ineffective player with an awful contract. He may be a local product, but you won't find him anywhere near the Hornets.

Quentin Richardson ($2.45 million, 3 years) - Looked like a decent backup wing player... until last season, that is. He doesn't do anything terribly well, and considering he's signed through his 34th birthday, he's not an incredibly attractive option.

Ryan Anderson ($2.24 million, 1 year) - Anderson is a fantastic 3-point shooter, a decent (at best) rebounder, and a poor defender who blocks a few shots here and there. The Magic love him, so they would likely be reluctant to include him in any potential deal, but if it's for Chris Paul, I'd have to imagine that anyone is attainable outside of Howard.

Daniel Orton ($1.1 million, 1 year w/ team options for 2 more) - Orton was the Magic's late first round pick in 2010 out of Kentucky and is still a major work in progress. He's big and can rebound and block shots, but that's about all that's known about him right now. Currently, he seems like a poor man's Aaron Gray (is that even possible?), but with much more upside due to his young age of 21.

Those are the guys that the Magic are currently employing. Besides taking a gamble on Orton, none of those players are ones to really rebuild around. Which brings us back to the question - Why the hell would we trade Chris Paul to Orlando for them?

Here's why, as first explained by Moore. The thing with at least half of those players is that, while they may not be valuable to a Hornets team looking to start over, they would have much, much greater value to other teams battling for playoff position. Nelson, Redick, Bass, and Anderson are four players who could each return decent hauls individually as the trade deadline approaches. Teams looking to make a postseason push could turn to the suddenly trade-happy Hornets looking to make a deal. In addition to any draft picks the team would receive from Orlando initially, they could also possibly net a couple more by turning around and trading whoever else they receive from Orlando.

Think about something along the lines of CP3 and Trevor Ariza for Nelson, Redick, Bass, Orton, and Orlando's 2012 first round pick. The Hornets get to unload Ariza's inflated contract and horrific shot selection (his excellent defense isn't really going to be much help to a rebuilding Hornets team), and in exchange they get 3 guys who would all be attractive assets as the trade deadline approaches, a project to work with at center, and a first rounder in a deep 2012 draft class.

Is it an ideal situation for the Hornets? Of course not.

Should they pursue other trade options before settling on the Magic? Unquestionably.

But is it better than whatever garbage they would get from the Knicks? You bet.

Can small-market owners "win" the lockout? If so, what of the Hornets?

GeauxHornets — Wed, 24 Aug 2011 19:39:47 -0000

*I wrote and posted the following article this morning on HoopDat, a New Orleans sports blog operated by Andrew and I that we periodically link to here as well.*

Tom Ziller is on a roll. I cranked out a post yesterday defending his excellent article about whether or not NBA owners can reasonably expect to make money, and today he has come out with a piece that should help ease the minds of small-market NBA fans everywhere. Read on to find out why he thinks small-market franchises have a great chance to come out as winners in the NBA lockout.

In Ziller's article, he brings up the growing theory that this lockout is not necessarily players vs. owners, but instead owners vs. owners. He lists seven teams (Lakers, Bulls, Knicks, Mavericks, Heat, Trail Blazers, and Nets) that have owners who not only have much deeper pockets than the rest, but also have shown a willingness to spend unlimited amounts of money chasing NBA titles. The rest of the league’s owners either possess one of those two characteristics (either possessing great wealth with no inclination to spend big, or having a willingness to spend but not enough wealth to do so) or neither. There are a couple teams with owners on the fence between these two categories (Ziller mentions the Magic and Celtics as two such teams) but the seven teams mentioned first are the no-doubters.

Here’s where it gets interesting – Ziller makes the very astute claim that each of those seven teams have TONS at stake if the lockout lasts throughout the entire season. To quote him directly:

Jerry Buss can count the number of remaining opening nights he’ll have Kobe Bryant for on one hand; Arison can do the same for the LeBron-Wade duo. Dolan’s shareholders just spent $850 million to rebuild Madison Square Garden. Mark Cuban finally has a championship to defend. Mikhail Prokhorov has one year to convince his superstar to stay (and help recruit a second superstar). Jerry Reinsdorf finally has a true heir to Jordan. The time is now for these owners, for their teams.

This potential desperation from the big-money owners, combined with the players slowly entering panic mode once the lack of a paycheck becomes a reality, should give the small-market owners tons of negotiating leverage. Now, I know what all of you are probably wondering – how might this affect the Hornets?

From a short-term financial perspective, the Hornets may be completely satisfied with waiting out this lockout, much like most of the other small-market teams; however, it’s not that simple. In order to have ANY chance of keeping Chris Paul in teal and yellow, there have to be games played this season. CP3 is one of the more loyal players in the NBA, but there would be no easier way for him to leave town than if the last season of his contract does not get played. That may not sound very optimistic, but trust me, there’s good news.

The way I see it, this current division between both groups of owners couldn’t possibly be better for the Hornets. On one side, there’s a group of 7-10 owners who will have a great deal of incentive to ensure that at least part of a season gets played. On the other side, the remaining 20 or so owners have all of the leverage, as most are completely comfortable with waiting things out until the big money, big spending owners give in to their demands. Once the owners finally agree on CBA terms, there’s a good chance that the players will be so desperate to get paid that it won’t be long until they give in as well.

If events unfold according to this scenario, not only will there be games played this season, but there will also be a new small market-friendly CBA to go along with it. Of course, none of this guarantees that Chris Paul re-signs with the Hornets, but for New Orleans basketball fans, it’s more important to look at the big picture – there will be significantly less reason for the Hornets to relocate, thus solidifying professional basketball’s place in New Orleans.

*Be sure to find/like our Facebook page and follow us on Twitter!*

New Orleans Saints Fantasy Football Draft Ratings

GeauxHornets — Tue, 23 Aug 2011 18:44:29 -0000

*The following post was written by my co-writer, Andrew, over at HoopDat New Orleans Sports Blog, but I thought it would be fun to post it here as well and see what you guys thought. I gave some of my own projections as well, but the writing is all his.*

The single most important three hours of the year is approaching. The three hour window that will determine bragging rights between your friends and coworkers for the rest of the year. The three hour window that separates the men from the boys, the weak from the strong, and the sports fanatics from the fair weather fan.

I’m talking, of course, about your league’s fantasy football draft. Fantasy football is right around the corner, and if you’re not preparing for it right now…. Well, then you probably accidently clicked on this site. Move along, nothing to see here.

But for those of you who are getting ready for fantasy football, we here at hoopdat thought it’d be instructive to take a look at all of the fantasy relevant players on the Saints roster and tell you who could be a steal and who’s going to be a bust. Enjoy!

Drew Brees – QB

Coming off of a Superbowl MVP, last season was actually a bit of a letdown for Drew. He threw a career high 22 interceptions, tied a career high with nine fumbles, and generally looked just a bit off. Some have speculated that a midseason MCL injury may have thrown him off a bit. Of course, weaker than expected for Drew was still world class for anyone else, as he had a 90.9 QB rating and threw for 4,620 yards and 33 TDs.

ESPN currently has Drew rated as the third overall QB, just behind Mike Vick and just ahead of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. We think this looks about right, though lingering questions about the health of his wide outs and the ability of the offensive line to gel together leave us a bit concerned. Another thing to keep in mind is the depth of the Saints’ running game this season, which may result in a slightly heavier reliance on the run than last year.

Our take – Fairly Valued

ESPN’s Projection – 3rd overall QB, 281 points, 34 TDs, 15 picks, 4516 yards

My Projection – 4th overall QB, 284 points, 34 TDs, 14 picks, 4620 yards

Mason’s Projection – 4th overall QB, 281 points, 35 TDs, 15 INTs, 4400 yards

Running Backs

Given how Coach Payton likes to constantly mix his RBs up, this (and wideout) are much more difficult positions to forecast than for most teams. However, with great uncertainty comes great opportunity, and for fantasy footballers brave enough to venture into one of these players, the upside could be great.

Mark Ingram

The rookie has been impressive in training camp so far, and he received several touches in the red zone during the Saints first preseason game. ESPN currently has Ingram rated as the 28th overall running back, just behind Shonn Greene and Fred Jackson but ahead of Daniel Thomas and Marshawn Lynch.

Given Ingram’s talent level, his reportedly impressive training camp, and the fact the Saints traded into the first round to pick him up, we’d be surprised if the Saints didn’t make a serious effort to get Ingram involved in the offense. This means there could be some serious upside / sleeper potential to Ingram’s pick.

Our take – slightly undervalued / nice sleeper

ESPN projections – 28th overall RB, 197 carries, 869 yards, 8 TDs, 15 receptions, 103 yards, 1 fumble, 142 points

My projection – 22nd overall RB, 205 carries, 910 yards, 10 TDs, 20 receptions, 150 yards, 0 fumbles, 166 points

Mason’s projection – 25th overall RB, 210 carries, 917 yards, 10 TDs, 17 receptions, 118 yds, 3 fumbles, 154 points

Pierre Thomas

PT is coming off an injury plagued campaign that ended in offseason ankle surgery. He’s a solid back whose "no-nonsense, straight ahead" running style (in stark contrast to Reggie’s "dance around" style) and toughness quickly made him a fan favorite. Unfortunately, in a crowded backfield like the Saints this year, a player like PT is often the one who gets lost in the shuffle.

Pierre Thomas just doesn’t make much sense on a risk / reward basis to us at these levels. Most likely case, you’re getting someone who will struggle to be your third best fantasy running back. Combine that with the likelihood of him losing carries to Ingram as the season wears on and some injury risk, and we’re putting PT on the "avoid" list, though we’d love it if he proved us wrong.

Our take – Avoid

ESPN projections – 32nd overall, 152 carries, 702 yards, 5 TDs, 31 receptions, 245 yards, 2 TDs, 1 fumble, 134 points

My projection – 38th overall, 140 carries, 650 yards, 6TDs, 26 receptions, 150 yards, 2 Tds, 0 fumbles, 128 points

Mason’s projection – 39th overall, 135 carries, 628 yards, 6 TDs, 25 receptions, 172 yards, 1 TD, 2 fumbles, 117 points

Wideouts / TEs

The Saints have some nice talent at wideout, which is great for Saints fans but terrible for fantasy owners. Drew Brees loves to spread the ball around, which makes picking one week’s standout fantasy player a nightmare for owners. That said, here’s our best thinking.

Marques Colston

Colston is probably the biggest gamble in the draft. He’s had three surgeries on his right knee in the past 12 months and has already missed a bit of preseason time recovering from the most recent surgery. So your downside is the injury nags him throughout the season and causes him to miss significant amounts of time. On the other hand, the upside is huge. Colston is every QBs dream red zone target- he’s big and strong and excellent at bringing down jump balls. Colston has led the Saints in wideout targets four of the past five years and been at least seventh in the NFL in red zone targets three of the past four years, so he clearly has a connection with Drew Brees.

This is a tough call to make. If he’s healthy, it’s not hard to see Colston returning to pro-bowl caliber form. Personally, I was calling for him to lead the league in TD catches this season, and he could do that if healthy. For those of willing to roll the dice, Colston is just what the doctor ordered…. but be advised it’s a big roll of the dice, and more conservative owners should stay away.

Our take – High risk / high reward

ESPN projection – 16th WR overall, 71 Catches, 1005 yards, 8 TDs, 1 fumble, 146 points

My projection (best case scenario) – 5th overall, 104 catches, 1260 yards, 12 TDs, 0 fumbles, 198 points

My projection (worst case scenario) – only makes it on the field for three games, leaves before half time in two of them.

Mason’s Projection - 13th WR overall, 72 receptions, 992 yards, 10 TDs, 1 fumble, 157 points

Robert Meachem

Saints fans keep waiting for Meachem to make the leap. It’s clear all the tools are there, but something you can’t quite put your finger on is always missing.

Well, HoopDat is here to tell you- this is the year for Meachem. It’s his fourth year in the league, and it’s a contract year for him. We’re anticipating big things for Meachem, as he pushes Colston for the top wideout spot and enjoys a breakout season.

Our take – way undervalued / big sleeper

ESPN projection – 39th WR overall, 47 catches, 661 yards, 7 TDs, 1 fumble, 110 points

My projection – 15th WR overall, 62 catches, 940 yards, 10 TDs, 0 fumbles, 154 points

Mason’s projection - 22nd overall, 68 catches,1009 yards, 6 TDs, 3 fumbles, 130 points

Jimmy Graham

Second year TE Jimmy Graham comes into the season with big expectations placed on him, as he’ll have to step into the volatile shoes of departed TE Jeremy Shockey. Graham is a super athletic big man with a basketball background who walked onto the University of Miami football team his senior year of college, got drafted the next year, showed some real flashes of promise during his first season, and is now the team’s top TE.

I’ll be honest: I’m buying everything this guy is selling. We saw what Antonio Gates could do with his background as a basketball player and athleticism, and I think Graham’s upside is somewhere close to Gates…. But that’s still a few years down the line. Still, with another training camp under his belt and some more football experience, we think he’s at least a solid starter with huge upside potential.

Our take – undervalued / sleeper

ESPN’s projection – 11th overall TE, 59 receptions, 690 yards, 6 TDs, 0 fumbles, 105 points

My projection – 6th overall TE, 65 receptions, 675 yards, 10 TDs, 0 fumbles, 128 points

Mason’s projection – 7th overall TE, 68 receptions, 743 yards, 8 TDs, 1 fumble, 120 points

*The original publishing of this article can be found here. Make sure to find us on facebook and follow us on twitter!*

Poll

Which Saints player not named Drew Brees will be the team's top fantasy scorer?

Mark Ingram

10 votes

Pierre Thomas

2 votes

Marques Colston

5 votes

Robert Meachem

0 votes

Jimmy Graham

9 votes

26 votes | Poll has closed

Phil Jackson and his New Orleans Commentary - Enough is Enough

GeauxHornets — Sun, 24 Apr 2011 03:33:27 -0000

In response to Phil Jackson's most recent comment made to the LA Times (originally found here) concerning his feelings towards New Orleans, I felt it necessary to dedicate an entire article to informing people about how much New Orleanians should truly despise the Lakers' head coach. I wrote an article on HoopDat back in late December about Jackson, attempting to describe just how heartless his comments make him seem. Below is a re-posting of sorts, along with some editing based on recent events. I hope you all enjoy reading it as much as I enjoyed writing it.

Let me just start by saying that I know Phil Jackson has had a difficult, tumultuous career. It’s not easy spending your entire playing days in front of a jam-packed Madison Square Garden in New York City, followed by coaching two of the greatest teams ever assembled in two of the NBA’s largest markets, Chicago and Los Angeles. It’s tough when you always have a superstar running the show, and you don’t have to do as much coaching as your peers in order to succeed. Phil Jackson has had it tough and he should be credited for sticking through it all of these years, so when he makes comments about how he "doesn’t know if New Orleans can support an NBA team" and claims that "it hasn’t been successful supporting a team up until now", we should probably just let it slide, right?

Give me a break. This guy has had it made ever since he entered the NBA as a player. He cruised through his playing career as a second-string player for the New York Knicks throughout the late 60′s and most of the 70′s, eventually parlaying his "basketball prowess" into an assisting coaching gig with the Chicago Bulls in 1987. Two years later, he replaced Doug Collins (a current coach of the year candidate with Philadelphia) as head coach, and never looked back. I’m not saying the guy doesn’t know basketball; the man obviously has a great basketball mind. That being said, coaching a Michael Jordan-run team doesn’t exactly seem like the most stressful job in the world. In 1998, Jackson was let go from the Bulls despite all of his team’s success because of his alleged poor treatment of his assistant coaches and his problematic ego. After not being asked to return, he vowed never to coach again in the NBA, claiming that his career was over.

…Until he was spoonfed his next pair of superstars. One year later, he took the Los Angeles Lakers’ head coaching job, moving from an MJ-led team to a Kobe Bryant and Shaquille O’Neal-led squad. Man, this guy has had it rough, how did he get by? Going from a team with the greatest player of all time to arguably two of the top 15 players of all time must have been such a hard transition for him. Anyway, he’s been there ever since, and after the Kobe/Shaq schism sent Shaq out of LA, his front office eventually worked out a deal that spoonfed the team Pau Gasol, one of the best forwards in the league. Phil Jackson has benefitted from working under two great basketball minds as GMs – Jerry Krause in Chicago and Mitch Kupchak in Los Angeles – who built fantastic teams in two HUGE markets for him to coach.

The reason I give a synopsis of his NBA career is because over the years, Jackson has apparently decided that his championship rings have earned himself the right to address issues which he has no business discussing. Whether it be about Arizona immigration laws, a comparison of an opposing coach to Adolf Hitler, or simply the state of the Hornets in New Orleans, Jackson continues to overstep his boundaries as a head coach. Before he talked about New Orleans in particular, he mentioned his concerns with the NBA running the Hornets and who would be calling the shots for their personnel decisions. I respect his concern with that topic because the league’s ownership of the Hornets directly affects his team, and he has a right to be concerned just like the other 28 teams in the NBA. What he doesn't have the right to talk about, however, is CP3's future (he makes it sound like Paul wanting to leave is a certainty) and much more importantly, whether the Hornets should or should not stay in New Orleans. The worst part is, unsurprisingly enough, this is not the first time Jackson has done so. He has repeatedly denounced the city of New Orleans, often times for completely non-basketball related reasons, and I am tired of it.

So Phil, the next time you think it "smells better elsewhere," just know what we here in New Orleans think – the only time that "mildew smell" shows up around here is when you’re contaminating our city. Don’t worry though, at least we have "drained the mud out of the building," but unfortunately, we do still have a problem with termites from time to time… whenever the Lakers and their head coach come to town.

The Big Gray Monster and his Career Night

GeauxHornets — Tue, 19 Apr 2011 01:11:16 -0000

Before the season began, how many of you thought that Aaron Gray's status for a playoff game would be a noteworthy ESPN headline that you wouldn't have to go sifting through their website to find? Sure enough, it currently sits in plain sight on ESPN's NBA homepage, which in itself is a huge testament to the game that Gray played on Sunday afternoon against the Lakers. Though his season high of 12 points certainly played a major part in calling his game a success, it was the little things that helped the Hornets to a game one victory in Los Angeles. If the Big Gray Monster (BGM) is able to do make a similar impact on future games while staying out of foul trouble, the Hornets will be able to counter the Lakers' size much more effectively than anyone could have predicted, and will therefore make this series a much more winnable one for New Orleans.

So, what were these "little things" that made Gray so much more effective on Sunday? One has to be his improved endurance, exemplified by consistently running the floor. Another is the discipline he utilized to stay out of foul trouble with Okafor glued to the bench for that very reason. Important as these may be, I have listed my three most essential keys to the Big Gray Monster's game 1 performance below.

1. Knack for establishing deep position inside. Rohan touched on this point in his game recap on Sunday night, and it is one that cannot possibly be understated. It would be easy to give all the credit for Gray's offensive production to the Hornets' point guards; Chris Paul brilliantly assisted four of BGM's five made shots, and Jack assisted the other. However, there was much more to his 12-point night than excellent point guard play. Aside from the absurd 16-foot baseline jumper he nailed, Gray may not have seen any of those passes come in from Paul or Jack without excellent positioning. Aaron was consistently able to plant himself deep within the paint, allowing him to basically just catch the ball and dunk it every time the ball came his way. The only way this is possible is through relentless effort and strength, so Gray deserves a ton of credit for creating those opportunities for himself so frequently.

2. Ability to finish looks. Countless times this season, we have seen Gray receive the ball near the rim and go up with it weakly, resulting in either a missed shot or a miss and a foul (followed by free throws that he often misses). Because of his poor free throw percentage, it is even more important for BGM to be able to finish around the rim. At long last, Gray came through in this regard, ironically doing so against one of the toughest teams in the paint in the entire league. Though frequently contested, BGM never backed down from the challenge; only once did a foul stop him from scoring, making each of his 5 official attempts which included two "and-ones" (both of which he converted). Excellent determination from Aaron throughout the game to make sure he made every shot count.

3. Strong post defense. The fact that Gray's game is praise-worthy despite only collecting one rebound (normally his best skill) is a tribute to just how well he played in almost every other area, especially defensively. This may sound strange, but it seemed to me like Gray finally started to use his size to his advantage on defense, not just his strength. One play in particular sticks out in my mind in this regard. Matched up one-on-one against Pau Gasol, the Lakers' all-star forward faced up against Gray from a little outside the low block. Gray played a little bit off of him, forcing Gasol to either A) back him down or B) take a jump shot/pass the ball. Gray effectively used his size and width to destroy any hopes of maneuvering around him, while still standing close enough to contest a shot with his 7 foot height and long arms. Gasol ended up deciding that Gray's strength was too much to handle, settling for a jumper that missed fairly badly. If the BGM can keep playing this kind of defense and show the ability and discipline to stand his ground, not only will he be more effective, but he'll also increase the likelihood that he stays out of foul trouble. Gray's defense on Sunday was almost as important as his offense, and the Hornets will need every bit of it in the coming games to keep the Lakers' big men off-balance.

Hopefully, this has been an appropriate shout-out to Aaron Gray, because after Sunday, the man certainly deserves it. Hornets fans everywhere are keeping their fingers crossed that the swelling in his ankle goes down enough to enable him to play on Wednesday night. No matter how many more games we see the Big Gray Monster play this season, he has already made a bigger impact on this series than any of us could have hoped, becoming a key contributor to a Hornets road playoff victory. Thanks for stepping up, Mr. Gray.

A Hornets Fan's Guide to the 2010-11 Season's Final 48 Hours

GeauxHornets — Tue, 12 Apr 2011 02:51:04 -0000

What a fun ride it's been, huh? As noted by many, this Hornets season has quite possibly had more ups and downs than any season for any professional team in recent memory. Why would the final week of the season be any different? For even the most die hard Hornets follower, it is difficult to keep track of all of the potential outcomes regarding playoff seeding and opponents. Therefore, I feel that it is our duty here on At The Hive to explain exactly how, as Hornets fans, you should be rooting for these final two days to play out. After the jump, you'll find my best attempt to explain where the Hornets currently stand and where they should hope to end up.

(Note: You'll see that this is a very detailed post, outlining nearly every possible scenario that the Hornets may face. While I think that it is all important to know, if you want to just skip to the bread and butter - "The Final Verdict" - you should be able to learn a lot from that alone.)

First, it bears mentioning that the Hornets find themselves at a huge disadvantage heading into the final day of the season on Wednesday. Their game against Dallas occurs at 7 PM central time, which is before both Portland and Memphis play their final regular season games on the west coast (9:30 PM central time). As a result, both the Blazers and Grizzlies can adjust their game plans according to how the Hornets fare against Dallas in order to achieve the seeding that they would want most. This sort of predicament makes me wonder whether or not all games should be played concurrently on the final day of the season; that way, no team can gain an unfair advantage by being able to see the results of prior games just because they play on the west coast. However, that is a discussion for another time (or in the comments section, perhaps?).

To Finish 6th:

After the Hornets' rather embarrassing loss to the Jazz, very little hope remains of earning the 6th seed. The only way that this can happen is if the Hornets can pull into a 3-way tie with Portland and Memphis; by doing so, the Hornets would jump to 6th thanks to owning the tie-breaker over both teams. For this scenario to come to fruition, ALL of the following events would have to take place:

The Grizzlies beat the Trail Blazers in Portland on Tuesday night
The Hornets beat the Mavericks in Dallas on Wednesday night
The Grizzlies lose to the Clippers in Los Angeles on Wednesday night
The Trail Blazers lose to the Warriors in Oakland on Wednesday night

Obviously, the chances of each of these four outcomes all occurring are very low. Therefore, we can now focus on whether we should be rooting for the Hornets to finish as the 7th seed or the 8th seed. First, let's take a look at how the Hornets can achieve either spot.

To finish 7th:

Scenario A - Blazers over Grizzlies, Clippers over Grizzlies

If these two results both happen, the Hornets' game against the Mavericks on Wednesday is rendered totally meaningless. The Hornets would be unable to catch Portland, and would finish ahead of Memphis thanks to owning the tie-breaker. Unfortunately, the Hornets won't know the result of the Grizzlies/Clippers game until after they play Dallas.

Scenario B - Blazers over Grizzlies, Hornets over Mavericks, Grizzlies over Clippers

Because of the timing of the Wednesday games, if Portland beats Memphis on Tuesday night and the Hornets want the 7th seed, they're going to have to play to win. As stated above, they can still land the 7th seed by losing if the Grizzlies lose to Los Angeles as well, but if they truly want that #7 seed, they'll play to win the game in Dallas.

Scenario C - Grizzlies over Blazers, Hornets over Mavericks, Blazers over Warriors OR Grizzlies over Clippers

If the Grizzlies can go into Portland and win on Tuesday night, the Hornets would need to win and then have either the Blazers OR Grizzlies win their final game. If both Memphis and Portland won on Wednesday night, the Hornets would finish as the 8th seed; if both of those teams lost on Wednesday night, we would see the first scenario presented above which would give the Hornets the 6th seed.

To Finish 8th:

Scenario A - Grizzlies over Blazers, Blazers over Warriors, Grizzlies over Clippers

This is the other scenario in which the Hornets' fate is taken out of their hands. If the Grizzlies beat the Blazers on Tuesday night, both teams will own a one-game lead over the Hornets in the standings. Should this happen, then New Orleans could still finish anywhere from 6th through 8th entering their game in Dallas on Wednesday night. If both Portland and Memphis win their games on Wednesday night, the Hornets will be locked into the 8th seed no matter how they fare against Dallas.

Scenario B - Grizzlies over Blazers, Mavericks over Hornets, Clippers over Grizzlies, Blazers over Warriors

This scenario is very similar to the one above; the only difference is that if the Clippers can upset the Grizzlies, the Hornets (retroactively, of course) would control their own destiny in regards to the 7th or 8th seed. Beating Dallas would give them the 7th seed, but losing would drop them to 8th. Too bad their crystal ball is currently on the fritz.

Scenario C - Blazers over Grizzlies, Mavericks over Hornets, Grizzlies over Clippers

If the Hornets really want the 8th seed, this is probably the least optimal way that they can get it. If the Blazers beat the Grizzlies tomorrow night, The Hornets will control their own destiny for the 7th seed; however, ironic as it may seem, the Grizzlies will control their own destiny for the 8th seed. If Memphis decides that the 8th seed presents a better match-up than the 7th seed, they can simply tank their game against the Clippers on Wednesday night, and there is nothing that the Hornets can do about it.

Whoa! Alright, now that all that is settled... what exactly is at stake in the Memphis/Portland game?

This game essentially counts double for either team, as the season series is tied 1-1, so a win would give the victorious team the tie-breaker. If that team is Memphis, then both teams would be tied in the standings, one game ahead of the Hornets; however, the Grizzlies would jump to the 6th seed thanks to earning that tie-breaker. If Portland wins, they clinch the 6th seed and give Memphis the power to throw away their last game to clinch the 8th seed if they so choose. Memphis winning this game will give the Hornets a great deal more flexibility in regards to where they would rather finish in the standings between 7th or 8th, but that doesn't necessarily mean that the Hornets should be blindly rooting for the Grizzlies, as you'll see below.

X-Factor that could throw a wrench into everything: Spurs @ Lakers on Tuesday night

There is another very important game that tips off in Los Angeles just a half hour after the Grizzlies and Blazers. After winning tonight in Houston, the Dallas Mavericks have jumped out to a 1/2 game lead on the Lakers, but the Lakers still control their own destiny. If the Spurs can beat the Lakers on the road, however, everything changes. Dallas would immediately become the overwhelming favorite to grab the #2 seed, because all they would have to do to clinch it is beat the Hornets at home. If things play out this way, the Hornets will be kicking themselves for kicking away the Jazz game. If they had beaten Utah on Monday night, they likely would have been able to punt away this Dallas game and lock themselves into a first round series with that same team, widely believed to be the Hornets' ideal first round opponent. Instead, all New Orleans beating Dallas would likely do is ensure a first round match-up with the Lakers.

The Final Verdict

After looking at all four possible outcome combinations of the Grizzlies/Blazers and Spurs/Lakers games on Tuesday night, I honestly cannot think of a single scenario that would give the Hornets a reason to play to win on Wednesday night. The one Tuesday night sequence of events that would likely spell doom (and by doom, I mean a Hornets vs. Lakers first round playoff series) for the Hornets would be a Blazers win followed by a Lakers win. If this combination were to occur, Portland would be locked into the 6th seed and Los Angeles would be the heavy favorite to land the 2nd seed. Memphis losing to Portland would unfortunately give the Grizzlies the ability to tank and land the 8th seed if they wanted to avoid the Lakers. The Hornets may as well lose Wednesday night to try to help bump the Mavericks up to the 2nd seed, although they would need the Kings to somehow pull out an emotional victory over the Lakers in what may be their last game ever in Sacramento. Should this happen, the 7th seed (Grizzlies if Memphis wins, Hornets if Memphis loses) would play Dallas, not Los Angeles.

If the Blazers win and Lakers lose on Tuesday night, the Hornets should be tanking their game against Dallas without a second thought. A Mavericks victory will guarantee them the #2 seed and the corresponding Hornets loss will lock them into either 7th (if Memphis also loses on Wednesday night) or 8th (if Memphis wins on Wednesday night). If the Grizzlies win and the Lakers win on Tuesday night, the Hornets would likely throw away the Dallas game as well; a victory over Dallas would only prove to be beneficial if both Portland and Memphis were to lose against inferior opponents on Wednesday night. I just don't see the Hornets risking a first round match-up with the Lakers for a minimal chance at Dallas when they could simply settle for San Antonio as the 8th seed. The logic is similar for the final possible outcome - a win by the Grizzlies and a loss by the Lakers. Though a Lakers loss would seem like a reason to try to win and move up, the fact that the potential Hornets victory would be at the Mavericks' expense would put the Lakers right back in the driver's seat for the 2nd seed. Therefore, the Hornets would likely again elect to simply play it safe and lock in a first round duel with the Spurs instead of taking a chance on meeting the Lakers.

And that's about it... I think.

I know this is a TON of information to take in, but if you can get through it, you should have an excellent grasp on every outcome you should be rooting for as a Hornets fan. If there are any other questions or if you think that any of my claims are incorrect, post a comment and let's talk about it. Go Hornets!

Fan Attendance: Not just about the Bottom Line

GeauxHornets — Wed, 06 Apr 2011 05:59:38 -0000

First of all, my apologies, as this isn't the kind of detailed post that I have typically produced for you guys lately (the real world takes its toll on even the best of us sometimes). However, I have put together a bit of research that I believe to be quite important as the Hornets continue to make their playoff push. We have all made our cases about how important attendance numbers are to the team's future in New Orleans, but what about its correlation to actual on-court success? After the jump, I present some interesting (but not totally unpredictable) information about the relationship between fan support and team success.

First of all, a disclaimer - in order to properly define "fan support," I have removed three Hornets home games from my data set. The two games against the Los Angeles Lakers and the one game against the Boston Celtics do not properly represent the true impact of a "home court advantage", as many of the fans at those games were cheering for the road team. Once these games are removed, we are left with 35 New Orleans Hornets home games to analyze.

Within these games, the first thing that became clear to me was a "cut-off number"; that is, the attendance number where performance clearly starts to separate. This number appears to be about 14,000 (13,898 to be exact). When there are at least 13,898 fans in the New Orleans Arena, the Hornets have not lost a game to a team that is currently under .500, going 9-0 against those teams with an average scoring margin of +11.22. When attendance falls below this number, the Hornets' record against sub-.500 teams falls to 5-2 with a margin over 5 points lower at 6.14. If there is one conclusion to take away from this data, it is the fact that, when the crowd is behind them, the Hornets take care of business versus inferior opponents.

Let's take this "cut-off number" a step further, shall we? When the attendance total is 13,898 or above, the Hornets have an average scoring margin of +5.86 points in 21 games played, with these games coming against teams with a current average winning percentage of just over 50%. When the attendance falls below this total, the Hornets' scoring margin drops a full three points to a +2.86 average in 14 games, and these teams sport a current average winning percentage of just under 50%. To put all the pieces together, the Hornets outscore superior opponents by a larger margin when more fans are in attendance cheering them on.

What is my point, you ask? Quite simple - get your butts in the seats at the New Orleans Arena! This Hornets team needs your support more than ever right now, and as you can see from the statistics above, every extra fan will help this team play just a little bit better. Who knows, maybe you are that one additional fan who pushes the Hornets to their next victory! Think about that while deciding whether or not to join us in The Hive for the Hornets' next game, especially come playoff time. I'm in! Are you?

Thoughts and/or gripes welcome and encouraged in the comments section below. If you have a problem with me discarding the Lakers' games from my analysis, I can definitely understand where you're coming from; I went back and forth a good bit on whether or not it was fair to exclude those games. If the Hornets happen to land the Lakers in a playoff series, it is especially important for us Hornets fans to snatch up those tickets before the Laker bandwagoners get their hands on them. That way, we can see what a true "home court advantage" means against those guys!

"Rose for MVP" Support is an Insult to Chris Paul

GeauxHornets — Tue, 29 Mar 2011 13:27:27 -0000

We've all heard the talk around the league concerning this year's MVP "debate." Over the past few weeks, it has become increasingly clear to people around the NBA that Derrick Rose has separated himself from the pack in the eyes of the media, and those are the people who do the voting. On the surface, the thought makes sense - he's the floor general and scoring leader on the team with the best record in the Eastern Conference. Looking deeper, however, we find that Rose may not be as much of an "MVP" as some may think, and his numbers beyond his points per game total are not exactly "league leading." In fact, those numbers pale in comparison to another point guard who had a very similar resume just three seasons ago, and yet did not take home the MVP award. That point guard is our own Chris Paul. I believe that any media member who is planning on voting for Derrick Rose as this season's MVP should strongly reconsider, especially if that individual did not vote for CP3 three seasons ago; not only would it be the incorrect choice, it would also be an insult to our beloved team leader.

First, let's take a look at both players' raw stats. These numbers don't tell the whole story, but it's an excellent start:

Player (Year)	MPG	FG%	3P%	FT%	RPG	APG	SPG	TOPG	PPG	PER
Chris Paul ('07-08)	37.6	48.8%	36.9%	85.1%	4.0	11.6	2.7	2.5	21.1	28.39
Derrick Rose ('10-11)	37.5	44.0%	32.9%	85.2%	4.2	7.9	1.1	3.5	25.0	23.37

A quick review of these stats tells us that both players sport close to equal numbers in minutes played, free throw percentage, and rebounds. Apart from that, the separation occurs. Rose bests Paul in only one area - points per game. That may sound siginificant, but Rose is getting those points this season at a MUCH lower efficiency than Paul did in his MVP-worthy season. Paul made nearly 49% of his shots, significantly higher than Rose's 44%, and held a similar 37% to 33% advantage from three point range.

Creating even more distance between the two is each player's assist and steal averages. In the 2007-08 season, CP3 led the league in both assists and steals; his 11.6 assist per game total was .5 assists higher than the next closest player (Steve Nash), and his 2.71 steals per game rate was a staggering .38 steals higher than second place in that category (Ron Artest and Baron Davis). Rose comes nowhere close to either of these averages, dishing out 7.9 dimes per game to go along with 1.1 steals per game. Both are respectable numbers, but nowhere near MVP caliber.

As an NBA point guard, one of your main responsibilities is to take care of the basketball. Suffice it to say that a 10 turnover outing like the one Rose had last game isn't going to help his MVP candidacy. Rose is averaging a full turnover more per game this season than Chris Paul did three seasons ago, although part of this can be attributed to a higher usage rate (31.7% for Rose vs. 27.0% for Paul). That being said, his 10.1% turnover rate (a stat which is adjusted for possessions that a player uses) is still significantly higher than Paul's miniscule 7.8% rate in 2007-08, a number that was second lowest in the league for starting PGs. The lowest? Derek Fisher; however, with Fish's lack of aggression while deferring to Kobe on most Lakers possessions, that shouldn't come as a huge surprise.

Finally, we arrive at both Paul and Rose's player efficiency ratings for their seasons in question; but first, a little bit of historical data. In the past 20 seasons, the MVP has finished in the top five in PER 16 times. Over this twenty year span, the average PER for an MVP award winner is 27.33. Like all statistical evaluation tools, even PER has a flaw or two, but the correlation between the metric and the MVP award is impossible to ignore. Derrick Rose currently sports a PER of 23.37, good for 11th in the NBA; however, if the season ended today and he was indeed crowned MVP, it would be the lowest PER for an MVP winner not named Steve Nash since Dave Cowens won the award in 1973. That's almost 40 years ago! In Chris Paul's 2007-08 season, he finished the year with a PER of 28.39, second in the NBA to LeBron James, and 5 spots ahead of actual winner Kobe Bryant's 24.2 PER. The point here isn't to complain about past events (even though CP3 obviously should have beaten out Kobe that season), but instead to put Rose's current season in perspective. Are his numbers truly deserving of the MVP award? I don't think so.

Of course, there's one more argument that is left to be made - after all, basketball is a team sport, isn't it? Derrick Rose is the leader of a team which currently rests atop the Eastern Conference, a position few expected it to be in before the season began. This sounds eerily similar to a certain 2007-08 Hornets team which finished one game behind the Los Angeles Lakers for the top spot in the Western conference, an achievement that absolutely nobody foresaw. That Chris Paul-led Hornets team finished 5th in the NBA in offensive rating and 7th in defensive rating; with players such as Morris Peterson, Peja Stojakovic, and David West in the lineup, the vast majority of the defensive burden fell on both Paul and Tyson Chandler, and both delivered. Rose, on the other hand, has been hailed primarily for his offense, not his defense; ironically, the Bulls are first in the NBA in defensive rating so far this season and just 14th in offensive rating. In a nutshell, while Rose's season has obviously been a strong one, it is not the primary reason that the Bulls have won the majority of their games. Chicago has gotten to where they are thanks to the impeccable defensive system implemented by new coach Tom Thibodeau, and the entire team's willingness to buy in and adjust to his teachings.

For the record, if I had an MVP vote, it would absolutely go to Dwight Howard (26.18 PER,14.3 RPG, and 2.41 BPG each rank 2nd in the NBA, and his team would be a complete wreck without him); however, that's not the point of this column. If Derrick Rose - whose current season is inferior to Chris Paul's 2007-08 season in almost every way - is crowned as this season's Most Valuable Player, I think the NBA needs to take a long look at the criteria that is used by voters to determine who wins this award, because the decision making process will appear as inconsistent as ever.

When it Matters Most, can the Hornets Finish what they Start?

GeauxHornets — Tue, 22 Mar 2011 02:54:07 -0000

The Hornets have had their share of come-from-behind victories this season, with none more memorable than the team's victory over Dallas just two weeks ago. That being said, after Saturday night's collapse against Boston, there is just cause to look at the other side of the coin as well. If you watched the game Saturday night, you know two things - first, and totally irrelevant to this article, the referees will apparently go out of their way to protect Boston's key players in crunch time. Second, and much more pertinent to my point, the Hornets team that took the court in the third quarter was absolutely not the same team that controlled the game in the first half. With this concept in mind, I decided to evaluate every game that the Hornets have played this season in which they were leading by 10 points or more at halftime. After finding these games, I then focused on how many of them I would have expected the Hornets to win (using three key points) and compared that total to how many games the team actually won. To conclude, I explain a possible on-the-court reason for the results. I discovered some pretty interesting information, all of which can be found after the jump.

The following is a basic outline of my findings:

Out of the 71 games that the Hornets have played so far this season, they have taken a 10+ point lead into halftime in 16 of those games, sporting a lead of 12.8 points on average.
Six of those sixteen games were against teams who would make the playoffs if the season ended today - vs. Portland, vs. San Antonio, at Denver, at Atlanta, vs. Chicago, and vs. Boston. To be as conservative as possible, I'm going to bump that number up to seven by including a December game against Utah, since it was played before the Jazz dealt Deron Williams.
Ten of the sixteen games were home games for the Hornets.

First, let's use these three facts to project how many of the sixteen games we should expect the Hornets to win. To remain conservative, let's start by giving the Hornets losses against every playoff team and wins against every non-playoff team, bringing us to a record of 9-7. But wait - ten of the sixteen games were at home; I'd say that should be good for about 1 extra win, improving our estimated record to 10-6. I feel like we're forgetting something... of course! The Hornets were up by at least 10 points in EACH of these games! That fact has to change our estimates substantially, doesn't it? I don't think that it's unreasonable to expect about 2/3 of those 6 expected losses to turn into wins by adding those 12.8 Hornets points to each final score. After all of our data is accounted for, we arrive at a projected record of 14-2. That may look a bit optimistic on the surface, but based on the facts that we have in front of us, it doesn't seem like much of a stretch at all, does it? The opponent that most Hornets fans seem to hope that their team draws in the first round of the playoffs, the Dallas Mavericks, finished 15-2 in games that they led by ten points or more at halftime. It really is not an unreasonable expectation, folks.

Now, for the actual results. The Hornets finished with a record of 10-6 in those sixteen games. Though only winning ten of those games is, in my opinion, pretty disappointing, the fact that I find the most disturbing is that five of those six losses came at home. In a sense, I guess it's a little comforting to know that the Hornets went 5-1 in road games in which they led by 10 or more at halftime, with their only loss coming in overtime to Detroit back in December. However, knowing that the Bees only went 5-5 in home games of this nature is particularly worrisome. The five losses came against San Antonio (11/28), Golden State (1/5), Chicago (2/12), Houston (2/27), and Boston (3/17). It's easy to write off three of those losses because of the competition, but if the Hornets are at home and up by double digits at halftime, those are all games that should be and need to be won if New Orleans wants to make any noise in postseason play.

While breaking down the results of these sixteen games, I found one other trend that bothered me just a bit. The average final score differential for those games is about 7.8, which means that, on average, the Hornets gave up 5 points of that average 12.8 point lead in the second half. This number doesn't shake me too much, because in many of these situations, the Hornets were playing to protect a big lead, not to win a close game. However, these numbers are inflated by the 41 point victory in Atlanta in which the Hornets bench outscored an apathetic Hawks bench by 16 points in the 4th quarter. By removing this game from the list, that -5 differential becomes -7, a more disconcerting number. We all know that basketball is a game of runs, and while that can't be totally disregarded, my point remains the same - if the Hornets want to have any chance at doing some damage in the playoffs against a team with a superior record, they cannot afford to squander any big leads that they are fortunate enough to establish, especially at home.

Finally, the burning question - who or what is responsible for this second half drop-off? I am sure that there must be some recurring themes that we could point to that would help us explain these collapses, but finding them would be quite difficult with minimal amount of resources that I have at my disposal (hey, I don't have ESPN's stat guys working for me). I was, however, able to find one thing worth mentioning. In the five blown double-digit halftime leads prior to the Boston game, David West shot a combined 20-30 from the field in the first quarter of each game. In the second halves of each game, he made 13 of his 29 total shots (about 45%). Obviously, we can't expect West (or anyone) to regularly maintain a 67% shooting percentage; however, the thing that does disturb me is the drop-off in his shot attempts. A player that the Hornets consider their best scorer should not be taking fewer shots in the 3rd and 4th quarters combined than he does in the first quarter alone. I can't say for certain whether this decline in second half attempts is due to a change in the Hornets' game plan (though that seems unlikely), a lack of assertiveness by West, or even increased defensive attention from the Hornets' opponents, but no matter what, it is something that David should make an increased effort to change. By attempting 13 shots in the second half of the Celtics game, it appears that he is on his way to bucking this trend; if he can keep that up and remain just as aggressive, it should go a long way towards helping the Hornets maintain the leads that they work so hard to build.

If you have any questions or if you disagree with any of my analysis, please post anything that's on your mind in the comments below. I'd appreciate the feedback!

Hornets vs. Celtics - 3/19/2011

GeauxHornets — Sat, 19 Mar 2011 19:42:13 -0000

(Andrew wrote most of this, but didn't have time to finish or post it, so I'm taking care of that for him. Go Hornets!)

Tonight, the Hornets (40-30, 24-10 home) take on the Celtics (48-19, 19-13 away) in the New Orleans Arena. Boston has had a lot of trouble on the road recently, and with the packed Saturday night crowd at the Hive tonight, the Hornets will hopefully have an edge tonight. I personally hate the Celtics (they're all such whiny babies, especially Rondo... who incidentally looks like a bug eyed alien), so let's push the Hornets to a good showing. The Hornets beat the Celtics in Boston in their first meeting, but both KG and Rondo were out, so don't take too much away from it. Key match-ups and game prediction after the jump.

(Andrew wrote most of this, but didn't have time to finish or post it, so I'm taking care of that for him. Go Hornets!)

Chris Paul vs. Rajon Rondo

A match-up of two of the best point guards in the game, the two come in on completely different steaks. CP3 has been absolutely lights-out since returning from a mild concussion, averaging nearly 29 points, 11 assists, and 5 steals in the three games since his return. Rondo, on the other hand, has been ice cold recently, scoring just 8 points in his last four games on 4 of 29 shooting. For the Hornets to win, CP3 needs to dominate this matchup... good news is, with the way he's playing recently, there is a pretty good chance of that happening.

David West and Emeka Okafor vs. Kevin Garnett and Glen "Big Baby" Davis

Kevin Garnett has been a bit off recently (at least by his standards). He's been shooting well, but hasn't really been filling up the stat sheet like he normally does. He's grabbing only 6 boards and 2 assists per game in his last five games, well below his season averages of over 9 and 4. It's not a huge drop off, but it's definitely noticeable, and you would think his totals would be up without Perkins (no Perkins = more rebounding duties for Garnett). Still, Garnett plays the type of defense that D-West traditionally struggles with, and both Oak and West will likely struggle guarding the two Celtics bigs (both Davis and Garnett have a decent jump shot, and the two Hornets big men have had trouble defending bigs who strech the floor).

Trevor Ariza vs. Paul Pierce

This is more like a "half match-up", because the only relevant part to these two facing off is Pierce's offense against Ariza's defense. As Mason noted in yesterday's post, Ariza has struggled in his four games since returning from his groin injury. That being said, Pierce has seen a part of his own game fall off since the all-star break - his long range shooting. He is only shooting 31% from long range since then, a span of 13 games. Conversely, he is shooting 90% from the line in that same time period, up from 84.5% before the break. For Ariza to be successful in his efforts to guard him, he needs to keep him from getting into the paint and encourage him to take long jumpers. If Ariza can keep Pierce from getting into a rhythm, then the Hornets may be able to stomach another inefficient offensive performance from their small forward.

Prediction

The Celtics are one point favorites. I know they've been bad on the road lately, but they match up really well with the Hornets. I expect Chris Paul to have a great game (say 20 points, 3 steals, 12 assists), but he will need to be unconscious for the Hornets to win. Either way, expect a slow, measured, low scoring game, as both teams play a very methodical style.

Pick - Celtics 90, Hornets 86

What to do with Trevor Ariza

GeauxHornets — Thu, 17 Mar 2011 14:28:18 -0000

If you have read some of my posts on HoopDat, you'll know that I've been pretty rough on Trevor Ariza all season. Before I explain the point of this post - why I think it may be in the Hornets' best interest to sit Ariza against Boston, and possibly longer if necessary - I want to make it clear that the foundation for this belief stems from Trevor's important role with the team. He is one of the key players who helps the Hornets play the defensive-minded style that they have utilized this season. His offensive game usually makes me want to cry, but his stellar on-ball defense and above-average rebounding for his position are essential components to the Hornets' success. Ever since Ariza's latest injury in New York, however, he hasn't been the same player, especially on defense. With how little Ariza typically brings to the table offensively, he needs to be at the top of his game defensively to truly be an asset on the floor, and over the past four games, he hasn't been. With Saturday night's game against the Celtics being the only game that the Hornets will play in an 8-day stretch spanning from March 16th to the 24th, I think the decision to rest Ariza against Boston should be a no-brainer for the Hornets' coaching staff.

First, the numbers to support my angle on the situation. In the four games since Ariza's return, he has posted offensive game scores of 1.6 (didn't know that low of a score was even possible with 41 minutes of playing time), 4.7, 4.5, and 5.0. An "average" game score is right around 10. For comparison's sake, in Chris Paul's 33/15/7/5 game against Sacramento on Saturday night, his score was an incredible 38.3. Carl Landry's performance in that same game (20 pts, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 block and 1 steal) netted him a solid score of 18.2. This scoring method is far from a substitute for watching a player in person, but it is at least a decent starting point (GmSc formula here). As we can see, Ariza's offensive scores have been even lower than his already low season average of 7.64; while unsettling, that is not the biggest issue at hand here. The problem that I am seeing which worries me most is his defense.

For his career, Ariza has a defensive rating of 104 (check the game score link for the definition of offensive and defensive rating; basically, the number revolves around points scored/allowed per 100 possessions, so for defense, the lower the number, the better). To compare, Tony Allen and Ron Artest, known all around the league for being defensive stoppers, currently sport defensive ratings of 102 and 103 respectively for their careers. Many of the less talented defensive players in the NBA have ratings that hover around 110. This season, Ariza has posted similar numbers to his own career average, as well as those of Artest and Allen, with an defensive rating of 103.2 through March 1st (not including the Knicks game, when his most recent injury occurred). In the four games he has played since that injury, this number has spiked to 110. Four games is obviously just a small sample size, but by watching the games, I have come to the same conclusion - Ariza looks a step slow on defense, and I have to believe that not being entirely healthy is the main reason why.

Quite simply, I think it would do the Hornets a great deal of good if Ariza were to sit out until he is 100% healthy, and giving him a full week off to rest should allow that to happen while only missing one game. If he isn't absolutely ready by the time the Hornets play in Utah on the 24th, they should keep him out until he's ready to go. The Hornets' win against Phoenix put them 5 games ahead of 9th place Houston and boosted them to a 90% playoff probability according to John Hollinger's playoff odds system. At this point, the only way that I could see New Orleans stumbling out of a playoff spot is if Chris Paul or Emeka Okafor have to miss a stretch of the final dozen games (the reason I don't include West is because Carl Landry should be able to handle starting duties for a short time period if necessary).

From a risk/reward perspective, Ariza's numbers correlate to a wins over replacement player rating (EWA) of .4 thus far this season, meaning his play this season has been just higher than replacement level. However, this number makes a key assumption that the "replacement player" has an EWA of 0. Unfortunately, the Hornets' backup SF Quincy Pondexter's EWA is -.7, so missing Ariza would likely hurt New Orleans more than the numbers may indicate. That being said, the odds are that replacing Ariza with Pondexter for even a 3 or 4 game stretch is unlikely to have an effect on the Hornets' win/loss record over that span. In the long run, ensuring that the Hornets have a completely healthy Trevor Ariza come playoff time is much more important than a brief drop-off at the small forward position.

Poll

What is your opinion on Ariza's current struggles?

He's just going through a rough stretch; he's healthy, keep playing him.

35 votes

He's obviously not 100%, rest him until he's healthy.

47 votes

He's not quite 100%, but the Hornets can't afford to keep him out.

50 votes

132 votes | Poll has closed

These Ain't Your Daddy's (or slightly older brother's) Hornets

GeauxHornets — Fri, 11 Mar 2011 15:24:20 -0000

Running with Paul's trend from yesterday, allow me to quickly introduce myself as well; my name is Mason Ginsberg. I co-run HoopDat, a New Orleans sports blog which focuses on both the Saints and the Hornets, with Andrew Walker, the third new member recently added to this stellar At The Hive team. Feel free to send any sort of feedback through Twitter (@WhoDatHornet88) or e-mail (mginsberg88@gmail.com). Thanks for reading!

As most Hornets fans know, "change" has been one of the words that best describes their team ever since the final game of the 2009-10 season. The roster turnover that has occurred between that game and now is unmistakable, with the only four mainstays being Chris Paul, David West, Emeka Okafor, and Aaron Gray. After New Orleans' most improbable win of the season over Dallas on Wednesday night without Chris Paul, it has never been more apparent how immensely improved the Hornets' roster has become. New Orleans Hornets' general manager Dell Demps and the rest of the team's front office have not received the credit they deserve for the total resurrection of the roster, and what better time to recognize them than after a win which was fueled largely by the team's new faces?

A good way to evaluate the improvement of the Hornets' roster is to break it down by each position in which the personel has changed from last season, so let's do just that. Since Paul, West, and Okafor are all carryovers from last season, those three positions (PG, PF, C) will be ignored, leaving us with shooting guard, small forward, and the bench. In the grades for each position, I not only look at how the players fared in their respective seasons, but I also take into account the likelihood of those players continuing to be successful going forward.

SG, 2009-10: Marcus Thornton. Grade - C+
SG, 2010-11: Marco Belinelli. Grade - C-

The shooting guard position is by far the toughest to grade. If only taking into account Thornton's 2009-10 season, it would probably get a grade in the B to B+ range. However, the fact is that Marcus never got a real extended opportunity under the new 2010-11 Hornets regime, and that knocks the position's grade down by no fault of his own. Evidence of this fact lies in Thornton's 14.1 PER during his 2010-11 Hornets tenure, compared with 18.5 in Sacramento thus far (very small sample size) and 17.4 in the prior season. Not only did Thornton struggle for minutes this season, he also couldn't sustain any real rhythm, two notions which are almost guaranteed to be correlated.

It's no secret that the shooting guard position has never been a strength for the team ever since it arrived in New Orleans; I loved David Wesley, but when he is arguably the Hornets' best SG in the past decade, that's a pretty substantial problem. By starting Belinelli at the 2-guard, the Bees weren't looking for a star; they simply wanted a player who could gel with the team's defensive identity and stretch the floor as a 3-point threat. Unfortunately, Marco has struggled with his consistency in both areas this season, most notably defensively. Though his shooting has once again come on strong as of late, there's no denying that shooting guard is still a position of weakness for the Hornets.

SF, 2009-10: Peja Stojakovic. Grade - C-
SF, 2010-11: Trevor Ariza. Grade - C+/B-

No matter how you feel about Ariza's deplorable offensive game, there is no denying the overall upgrade he brings to the position in virtually every aspect apart from shooting. Last season, Peja earned one of the NBA's worst rebound rates for small forwards at 6.8%. Ariza comes in significantly higher, at 9.5%. The difference in assist rate is similar, with Peja coming in at 7.2% compared to Ariza's 9.7%. These numbers tell us that despite the shooting percentage discrepancy between the two, Ariza is much more capable of making his teammates better than was Stojakovic.

The greatest skill that Ariza brings to the court is his on-ball defense. The Hornets regularly ask Trevor to match up with the opponent's best wing player, giving him the not so simple task of defending players such as Kevin Durant and Carmelo Anthony on a nightly basis. Given the work he does and the pressure he takes off of the rest of the defense, below average shooting becomes more than excusable. Should he be smarter about the volume and location of the shots he takes? Absolutely. That being said, Coach Monty Williams has installed a defense-first philosophy on this year's Hornets team, and that wouldn't have been possible without the addition of Ariza.

Bench, 2009-10: Darren Collison, Morris Peterson, James Posey, Darius Songaila, Aaron Gray. Grade: D
Bench, 2010-11: Jarrett Jack, Willie Green, Quincy Pondexter, Carl Landry, Aaron Gray. Grade: B-

Let's get one thing straight - last season's Hornets bench was downright horrible. The only reason that the unit did not receive an F is thanks to Darren Collison. Peterson was traded to Oklahoma City this past off-season purely to cut costs, then was subsequently dealt to Charlotte for the same reason and was released less than a week later. Oh, I almost forgot to mention - he was playing over 20 minutes per game as a Hornet! James Posey's PER of 8.7 was the worst on the team and one of the worst in the NBA for players receiving regular playing time. Songaila was average on defense but a liability offensively, generating a grand total of 0.0 in OWS (offensive win shares, the estimated number of wins added by a player's offense). Aaron Gray is, well, Aaron Gray - a big oaf who defends other big centers, gets rebounds, and fouls a ton. Overall, it is pretty clear that the Hornets' bench last season was quite abysmal.

This season, things are noticeably different. Though Jack may be a slight downgrade from Collison, both PGs are capable of starting in the NBA and would be considered top-tier backups at the position. Willie Green struggles mightily at times, but the improvement he brings to the backup SG position in comparison to Mo Pete is undeniable. Backup SF is basically a wash, but Q-Pon's athleticism and upside is a nice replacement over Posey's aging body, especially knowing that the only way he will play any substantial minutes come playoff time would be due to an Ariza injury. The recent acquisition of Carl Landry for Marcus Thornton has been scrutinized enough recently, but there is no doubt that Landry will bring much more to the team at backup PF than the amount that Thornton was contributing (regardless of who's choice it was). Additionally, Aaron Gray seems to be the perfect complement for Landry's game. Landry is a slightly undersized PF who's strengths come from his offensive post game and offensive rebounding, as he struggles on the defensive glass. Conversely, Gray is a wide-bodied 7 foot center who thrives on the defensive boards.

The Bottom Line
To most accurately grade the entire roster, however, it is going to come down to playoff rotations. I get most excited when thinking about the Hornets' 8-man rotation which we are beginning to see more and more - Paul, Jack, Belinelli, Green, Ariza, West, Landry, and Okafor. Paul will hold down the point for about 40 minutes each game, with Jack covering the rest in addition to a few minutes in the same backcourt as Paul. Belinelli, Ariza, and Green will handle virtually all of the playing time at the wings, and West, Okafor and Landry will be the three-man rotation in the frontcourt. Try to compare this rotation to last season - Paul, Collison, Thornton, Peja, Posey, West, Okafor, Songaila is probably the most comparable 8-man rotation. Is there really any debate? I would trust about five of those guys to play more than a dozen minutes; having to use Peja, Posey, and Songaila for more than 20 minutes per game would have been downright frightening in a playoff series. As a result, I want to send out my personal thanks to Dell Demps and the rest of the Hornets' staff, including Coach Monty Williams; they have assembled a roster that most of us would have never dreamed possible in April of last season. If the past nine months of management are any indication, it won't be too long before this Hornets team becomes a serious championship contender. Now, if they can just find a local owner!

Why CP3 Will not be a Knick, and the Impact of the other NBA Trade Deadline Moves on the Hornets

GeauxHornets — Sat, 26 Feb 2011 20:28:14 -0000

[Another crosspost from Mason from HoopDat. Today, he takes a look at the impact the moves of the rest of the league at the deadline will have on the Hornets.]

The past two days have made for the most active trade deadline that I’ve seen since I started seriously following the NBA, which accounts for about a decade. Tons of moves were made, and although only one of them directly involved the Hornets, many of these deals will indirectly affect them. Highlighting this group of transactions was the Carmelo Anthony trade to the Knicks, which everyone seems to think is a precursor to Chris Paul landing in New York. Allow me to elaborate on why there is an extremely small chance of this happening, as well as present each trade made over the past 72 hours (in approximate order of completion) and then explain its potential impact on the New Orleans Hornets. You can find this entry at its original location here, as well as follow the rest of our work on Facebook and Twitter.

[Another crosspost from Mason from HoopDat. Today, he takes a look at the impact the moves of the rest of the league at the deadline will have on the Hornets.]

Nuggets trade SF Carmelo Anthony, PG Chauncey Billups, C Shelden Williams, PF Renaldo Balkman, and G Anthony Carter to Knicks for PG Raymond Felton, F Danilo Gallinari, SF Wilson Chandler, C Timofey Mozgov, its 2014 first-round pick, second-round picks in 2012 and 2013, and $3 million. Minnesota also trades SF Corey Brewer to Nuggets and CKosta Koufos to Knicks, receiving C Eddy Curry, PF Anthony Randolph, and $3 million from Knicks, and 2015 second-round pick from Nuggets:

This one affects the Hornets for a couple of reasons, both of which are positive. First, it makes the current Denver Nuggets team considerably weaker. While their current record may give them enough wiggle room to still make the playoffs, the odds are that they will fall to the 7th or 8th seed and not give the Hornets any real competition. The second reason is more long-term: the Knicks cripple their long-term financial flexibility. Sure, they got one of the top 20 players in the league in Carmelo Anthony, but at what cost? I keep hearing all of the rumors saying things like "Carmelo's in NY, CP3 is next!" I'm sure people enjoy thinking about it, but the reality is that there is almost no chance of it happening. Let me explain why.

The easiest way to begin is by making a comparison to the Big Three in Miami. LeBron, Wade, and Bosh each "settled" for starting salaries of $14.5 mm (LeBron/Bosh) and $14.2mm (Wade), totaling $43.2 mm. In New York, Amare ($16.5 mm) and Carmelo ($17.15 mm) are making a combined $33.65 mm. I don't claim to know all of the intricacies and details concerning NBA salary cap rules, but it would seem that if the Knicks were to totally clean house just like Miami did, the amount that they could offer a 3rd star would be right around that difference between $43.2 mm and $33.65 mm. However, this implies two things - #1, that the 3rd player were headed to NY now (not true, won't happen until 2012, at which point Amare and Carmelo's salaries will be around $20 mm each) and #2, that the current salary cap will remain the same after the new CBA is finalized (not true, every bit of info indicates that it will decrease substantially, in addition to a hard cap being instituted). Therefore, that 3rd "star" would have to agree to a starting salary of well under his market value. I know how much CP3 wants to win, but how do you think he would feel making 1/3 of the total that his two superstar buddies are making when he may very well be the best player of the three? It's not happening, folks. The only way it could happen is if the Knicks found a way to trade for Paul; even if New Orleans were to get cold feet and try to deal him next season, New York already unloaded nearly all of its assets to Denver in exchange for Carmelo, so there is no way they could offer up enough value for him. New York will not land a third superstar; if Melo wanted CP3 or Deron Williams to join him that badly, he would have agreed to an extension amount of less than the $22 million per season average that he is set to receive.

Jazz trade PG Deron Williams to Nets for PG Devin Harris, PF Derrick Favors, its 2011 1st round pick & the Warriors' 2012 1st round pick

This trade helps the Hornets largely in the same way as the Carmelo Anthony trade. While Harris and three lottery draft picks (including Favors) is a pretty decent haul for the Jazz if they truly believed that Williams was not going to re-sign with them, the deal considerably weakens their current roster and will likely result in failing to reach the playoffs. Additionally, the trade means that yet another young star moves to the Eastern Conference, likely decreasing the appeal of playing for other Eastern Conference teams. Seriously, think about it - if you're Chris Paul, even if you wanted out of New Orleans, why would you go to the East? If he stays in the West, what other young stars does he have to get through on his way to the NBA finals besides the Westbrook-Durant duo in Oklahoma City? The Spurs (Duncan), Mavs (Nowitzki) and Lakers (Bryant) all have stars who only have a few years left at most. Aldridge has been looking damn good for Portland lately, and Blake Griffin is Blake Griffin, but do either of those teams really scream championship contender? If there's anything else that the Anthony and Williams trades did for the Hornets, it's that they made the Eastern Conference look a hell of a lot less appealing for the team's superstar point guard.

Bulls trade SF James Johnson to the Raptors for the Heat's 2011 1st round draft pick

No real impact here (or for any of the other 28 teams, for that matter).

Nets trade PF Troy Murphy and its 2012 2nd round draft pick to the Warriors for PF Brendan Wright and C Dan Gadzuric

This trade has a small chance of affecting the Hornets from a personnel perspective. Two of the the three players in this trade (Murphy and Gadzuric) are expected to have their contracts bought out, making them free to sign with any team. Before the Hornets traded for Landry, I thought they may be players for Murphy, but now New Orleans won't have enough minutes to distribute at the PF position to make New Orleans an attractive destination for Murphy. There is a chance, however, that the Hornets pursue Gadzuric. As far as backup centers go, he is still below average, but he would definitely be an improvement over both Andersen and Mbenga, and maybe Gray as well.

Cavaliers trade PG Mo Williams and SF Jamario Moon to the Clippers for PG Baron Davis and its 2011 1st round pick

Oh, the poetic justice! Take THAT, Baron! A notorious franchise-killing point guard reunited with the coach that he feuded with in New Orleans on the worst team in the NBA. To quote Bill Simmons, "We're 48 hours away from Baron firing his personal chef and replacing him with Jack from Jack in the Box." Apart from all the warm feelings this trade should give to any Hornets fan who refuses to forgive the Baron for crippling the Hornets a half-dozen years ago (like me, for example), the trade actually does give a little room to worry. In exchange for the the team's 1st round pick in a weak 2011 draft, the Clippers shed about $10 mm in salary over the next two seasons and position themselves to attempt to lure one of the big free agent names in the 2012 class to Los Angeles. I'm not saying that I expect any self-respecting NBA player to agree to play for Clippers owner Donald Sterling, but this trade at least gives them the ability to take a shot.

Wizards trade PG Kirk Hinrich and PF Hilton Armstrong to Hawks for PG Mike Bibby, SG Jordan Crawford, SF Maurice Evans and its 2011 1st round draft pick

FREE HILTON! Just kidding, he's terrible. No real impact on the Hornets in this one.

Rockets trade SF Shane Battier and G Ishmael Smith to Grizzlies for C Hasheem Thabeet and its 2011 1st round draft pick

The only real immediate effect that this trade has on the Hornets is that it gives Memphis a hold-over until star SF Rudy Gay gets healthy (the Hornets play the Grizzlies three more times this season but only one of the three will likely occur before Gay will return). Additionally, Battier is still solid defensively and is a very intelligent veteran, an addition that can only help Memphis as they make their run at a postseason berth. Even with this trade, the Hornets are still the better team, but Battier will definitely give the Grizzlies a slight boost.

Celtics trade C Kendrick Perkins and G Nate Robinson to Thunder for F Jeff Green and C Nenad Krstic

Out of all the trades listed thus far, these the first two that should make Hornets fans start to worry, because the Thunder just vastly improved their team. Not only did the team desperately add some much-needed size, but OKC finally gets its best five players into the starting lineup. I really think that Jeff Green can be successful in the right situation, but Oklahoma City was not that situation. He never really seemed to gel with the rest of the starters, which can be proven statistically through the fact that the Thunder performed much better with Ibaka replacing him. Perkins isn't healthy right now, but the Thunder don't care about that; they just need him for the playoffs (in particular, the Lakers). Once they hit the postseason and have a crunchtime lineup of Westbrook-Harden-Durant-Ibaka-Perkins, this team is going to be one tough out, making a likely first-round matchup with the Hornets significantly more frightening.

Bobcats trade C Nazr Mohammed to Thunder for SG Morris Peterson and PF D.J. White

Knowing that Perkins would not immediately be available, what did Thunder GM Sam Presti do? Nothing really, just go out and steal a hold-over/eventual backup for Perkins in Nazr Mohammed from the Bobcats. OKC gave up only a below average prospect in White and an expiring contract to make the salaries match in Peterson, and in return received a legitimate backup center. As a Hornets fan, not only am I upset because of how the trade makes the Thunder better, but also because our GM couldn't trump OKC's offer for Mohammed. Marcus Banks, Quincy Pondexter, and Jason Smith for Mohammed and Derrick Brown (who they ended up cutting to make roster space anyway) comes to mind. Are you going to tell me that Charlotte wouldn't have jumped at Q-Pon/J Smooth over DJ White? Anyway, the Thunder got their man, and as a result they added depth to a suddenly legitimate defensive frontcourt. My fellow Hornets die-hards, watch out for OKC in the playoffs.

Bobcats trade SF Gerald Wallace to Trail Blazers for PF/C Joel Przybilla, F Dante Cunningham, its 2013 1st round draft pick and the Hornets' 2011 1st round draft pick

This trade impacts the Hornets only because it makes another rival team better. I'm not too sure how Wallace will fit into the Blazers' lineup given how much they like Batum at SF, but he is going to make them a lot tougher defensively. A crunch-time lineup of Miller Matthews Batum Wallace Aldridge (or Miller Batum Wallace Aldridge Camby) both look much more formidable than their prior rotations. I still think the Hornets edge out Portland for the 5th seed in large part due to an easier strength of schedule from here on out, but the Blazers may have locked up no worse than the 6th seed with this deal. Good move by Portland.

Celtics trade C Semih Erden and F Luke Harangody to Cavaliers for its 2011 2nd round pick

Nothing special to report on this one regarding the Hornets, although Boston did manage to get rid of the two funniest looking players on their team, so kudos to the Celts on that one.

Suns trade PG Goran Dragic and its 2011 1st round pick (lottery-protected) to Houston for PG Aaron Brooks

This trade shouldn't have too much of an immediate impact on the Hornets, as Houston will likely miss the playoffs and Phoenix will fight for its life to grab the 8th seed. However, the Hornets do have 5 of their remaining 22 games against these two teams, so they will run into these two players on their new teams quite a bit. The Suns may have gotten the better player, but I'm not sure how much happier Brooks will be as Nash's backup than he was as Kyle Lowry's backup in Houston. Only time will tell the true effect of this deal.

Celtics trade SF Marquis Daniels to Kings for future 2nd round draft pick

No impact on the Hornets; purely a salary cap move for both teams, as the Kings fell below the league minimum team salary total after the Landry/Thornton trade and needed to add back to its payroll.

So, there's your list of all 2011 NBA trade deadline deals, as well as descriptions of each one's impact on the Hornets. If you have any opinions of your own, whether they agree or disagree with my thoughts, I encourage you to post them in the comments section. In sum, I think this year's deadline moves (not including the Hornets' one trade) create a slightly negative short-term effect on New Orleans because 4th seeded Oklahoma City and 6th seeded Portland both got significantly better. That being said, I also believe that the deals created a positive long-term effect on the team, mainly for the reasons that I listed above regarding Chris Paul. Of course, I'm always open to counter-arguments! Let me hear ‘em.

Breaking Down the New Orleans Saints' 2011 Schedule

GeauxHornets — Tue, 22 Feb 2011 15:47:13 -0000

Though the Saints’ weekly schedule hasn’t been released yet, every NFL team’s 2011 opponents were determined as soon as the 2010 regular season came to an end. Here is how the Saints’ 10 non-divisional games are assigned each season:

All four teams from one of the other three divisions in the NFC, alternating every year.
All four teams from one of the other four divisions in the AFC, alternating every year.
Two NFC games based on the 2010 standings. Because the Saints finished in 2nd place in their division in 2010, they will play the corresponding 2nd place teams from the two NFC divisions that the Saints do not already have on their schedule.

On paper, New Orleans seems to have a much more favorable out-of-division schedule than their fellow NFC South peers. Although it is far too early to make any predictions with absolute confidence, the Saints’ schedule at present appears to have them well positioned to reclaim their place at the top of the division. Here is a breakdown of the team’s 2011 non-divisional opponents. This post can be found at its original location here, and was also referenced by ESPN.com's Pat Yasinskas in his official NFC South Blog.

All four teams from one of the other three divisions in the NFC, alternating every year.
All four teams from one of the other four divisions in the AFC, alternating every year.
Two NFC games based on the 2010 standings. Because the Saints finished in 2nd place in their division in 2010, they will play the corresponding 2nd place teams from the two NFC divisions that the Saints do not already have on their schedule.

NFC Division Match-up – NFC North

Schedule – vs. Bears, vs. Lions, @ Vikings, @ Packers

Unfortunately, the Saints do not get to play the NFC West every year (although maybe that’s a good thing, considering the team suffered two embarrassing losses in week 5 at Arizona and in the playoffs loss at Seattle). Next season, they face the formidable NFC North, the division that lays claim to both NFC championship game participants. The only game on the Saints’ 2011 schedule that truly scares me comes from this division, as the Saints have to make a trip to Green Bay. The Saints’ other home opponent would be a tough matchup in Chicago, especially if the game came late in the season with a high chance of heavy snow; however, the Saints should be able to handle da Bears in da Dome. As for the team’s two road games – Minnesota won’t be able to make any noise this season unless they can land a new franchise QB, and though the Lions are improving, they are still at least a year away from seriously contending.

Projected record: 3-1

Falcons/Bucs - Atlanta travels to Chicago and Detroit, while the Bucs have road games in Green Bay and Minnesota. Realistically, I see the Falcons finishing 3-1 against this division as well, while the Bucs could finish anywhere from a more likely 2-2 to a less likely 3-1.

AFC Division Match-up – AFC South

Schedule – vs. Texans, vs. Colts, @ Titans, @ Jaguars

This schedule simply could not have gone better for the Saints. New Orleans gets the division’s two most talented teams in the Dome, and travel to two teams trending downward. You can be sure that the Super Bowl XLIV rematch in New Orleans between the Saints and Colts will be nationally televised, and the primetime invincibility theory concerning Peyton Manning has been put to rest after this past season. The Texans have lots of young talent, but there is simply no way Houston’s pass defense can improve enough in one offseason to contain Drew Brees. The two road trips to Jacksonville and Tennessee seem like a cakewalk when compared to the avoided trips to Houston or Indy (although that’s what we all thought about Cleveland and Arizona this season), as both teams just have too many holes on both sides of the football to hang with New Orleans.

Projected record: 4-0

Falcons/Bucs - Atlanta gets hit with a buzzsaw, having to travel to both Houston AND Indianapolis, neither of which will be easy. Though their two home games should be guaranteed wins, there is a chance that the Falcons may not be favored in either of these two road games. The Bucs have the same home/away slate as the Saints. I think the Falcons and Bucs both finish with a 3-1 record against this division, though both could easily go 2-2 thanks to a tough road schedule for Atlanta and a young Bucs team which could be more prone to a slip-up.

Final Two Games

Schedule – vs. Giants, @ Rams

The Saints catch another break with these two games. If the schedule had been inversed, the most likely outcome would be a 1-1 finish; however, because New Orleans gets a road game in a dome against an inferior team while hosting the tougher opponent, they should be able to win both of these games. New York went 0-3 on the road against teams over .500 in 2010, getting outscored by an average of over 20 points per game; I expect more of the same in 2011 from a team that hasn’t shown much resiliency since their Super Bowl XLII victory three years ago.

Projected record: 2-0

Falcons/Bucs - Atlanta’s final two games consist of a home matchup against the Eagles and a trip to Seattle. Though in most cases I would prefer to play the tougher team at home, this scenario is much different. As Saints fans learned the hard way, Seattle’s Qwest Field is one of the toughest places in the NFL to play; the place registered a seismic rating on Marshawn Lynch’s touchdown run. If that weren’t enough, the Falcons’ home game will be Michael Vick’s homecoming in the city where his NFL career first exploded; you can be sure he is going to be at the top of his game for that one. I see Atlanta splitting those two games. Tampa Bay hosts the Cowboys and travels to the 49ers. I don’t think anyone expects either of those two teams to play as poorly as last season, meaning the Bucs will have their hands full. They should split those two games, but I wouldn’t be totally shocked at any of the four possible outcomes.

Expected Non-Divisional Records

New Orleans: 9-1

Atlanta: 7-3

Tampa Bay: 6-4

Carolina: 3-7

Though I don’t expect the NFC South to have quite the same success at the top that it had in 2010, the division should still produce three teams records at .500 or better. To sum things up regarding the Saints, there are two main reasons that they should expect to come out of their non-divisional schedule ahead of their fellow NFC South opponents. First, New Orleans will benefit from playing against their tougher opponents at home, while traveling to face the less talented teams. The Saints’ game against the Packers also happens to be their only road game outside of the NFC South against a team with a winning record in 2010. Second, the only possible game in which New Orleans would have to deal with inclement, brutally cold weather is in Green Bay. While I do expect the Saints to lose to the Packers, they should be favored in each of their other nine non-divisional games. As a result, the New Orleans Saints unquestionably have the scheduling edge over the rival Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Breaking Down the Saints' 2011 List of Free Agents

GeauxHornets — Tue, 22 Feb 2011 06:21:10 -0000

ESPN’s official NFC South blogger Pat Yasinskas published a post recently which explains that the New Orleans Saints lead the league in potential free agents this offseason with 27. While he makes it clear that no player will reap the benefits of free agency until a labor agreement is agreed upon, it is obviously still an area of concern for this Saints team. With this dilemma in mind, let’s take a look at each Saints player eligible to become a free agent. The most recent Collective Bargaining Agreement states that players with 3 years or less of NFL experience are restricted free agents (any offer from another team can be matched by the player’s current team), while all other players can become unrestricted free agents. The following list of players was acquired from an article written by Mike Tripplet for NOLA.com. The odds of the Saints re-signing each of player cannot be determined with certainty until the new CBA is in place, but why not speculate a little? The original version of this article can be found here.

FAs with 3 Years of Experience or Less (2010 salary) – Only four of the Saints’ 27 free agents fall into this category, but New Orleans will likely look to hang onto most or all of them. All of these players have been paid on the rookie wage scale thus far, and since they were all either late round picks or went completely undrafted, none of them have been receiving much more than the league minimum. As a result, the Saints will have to be careful when deciding which offers they plan to match for each player.

Must retain: G Carl Nicks (400K) and K Garrett Hartley (400K). Nicks is going to be one of the tougher players for the Saints due to how significantly he has out-performed his contract, as he has turned into an above-average guard in this league. You can bet another team will give Nicks a handsome offer, and the Saints will have to look long and hard at matching it; if they can afford to pay him, I don’t think the team wants to let him walk. As for Hartley, although he had his early season struggles, he was one of the most reliable kickers in the NFL throughout the second half of the season. Kickers generally don’t cost very much to keep, so I expect the Saints to match any offers made to the young kicker.

Should retain: LB Jo-Lonn Dunbar (400K). Dunbar is a solid backup, but not a starting-quality linebacker for a respectable NFL defense. If the Saints can bring him back at a price comparable to his wort as a good second-string LB, they’ll do it, but if another team offers him starting LB money, they’ll probably let him go.

Expendable: LB Anthony Waters. He’s a special teams player on the team, nothing more; I doubt he’ll receive any legitimate offers from any other teams. If the Saints value his production as a special teams player, they may look to bring him back at the league minimum, otherwise he’s probably gone.

FAs with 4 Years of Experience or More (2010 salary) - Overall, there is some good newss and bad news about the Saints’ free agency situation. The good news is that not many of their impending free agents are absolutely essential or irreplaceable. The bad news is that of the players that the Saints need to re-sign, the vast majority of them will be in line for substantial pay raises. Unfortunately, the question of how much of an increase in payroll the team can afford will not be answered until the new CBA comes out.

Must Retain: S Roman Harper (500K), T Jermon Bushrod (500K), DT Remi Ayodele (500K). I know many Saints fans are still a bit bitter about Harper’s faceplant against Seattle, but the fact is that he is an above average safety in this league. At age 28, he’s no longer "young" by football standards, but he should have around 3-4 more fully productive years left, and the Saints would be making a mistake to let him go without a suitable replacement. Both Bushrod and Ayodele are essential as well; neither one is a star, but both have proved their worth as low-end starters in the NFL, and the Saints simply don’t have enough behind them to justify letting either player go. New Orleans will likely look to address both offensive and defensive tackle in the draft, but it is doubtful that anyone they select will come in and make an immediate impact.

Should Retain: DT Anthony Hargrove (600K), WR Lance Moore (1.55 mm), TE David Thomas (550K), T Zach Strief (1.55mm), DE Jeff Charleston (450K), LB Marvin Mitchell (450K), S Usama Young (450K), S Chris Reis (450K).Most of these players fall under the category of valuable backups for the Saints, except for Moore. Lance is the closest thing to a "must retain" out of all of the "should retains"; I’m just worried that another team is going to offer him more than New Orleans can afford to pay him. The Saints’ offense works by getting everybody involved, which is beneficial in the sense that no one player in the offense is completely irreplaceable (Besides Brees, of course). As long as no other team offers Moore a contract that would pay him like a starting WR, I think the Saints will absolutely re-sign him. Besides Moore, the trickiest player on this list may be Thomas; he would serve as an excellent backup for surefire new starter Jimmy Graham, but that would leave the Saints in an undesireable position with Shockey still under contract (though he is entering the last year of his deal). I would not be surprised if the Saints shop Shockey around given Graham’s emergence last season, but their might not be many takers due to his hefty $4.2 million price tag. Hargrove, Strief, Charleston, Mitchell, Young and Reis have all had a positive impact in limited action for New Orleans, and you can be sure the Saints will try to bring back all of them if they are affordable.

Expendable: LB Scott Shanle (2.2mm), C Jonathan Goodwin (2.25mm), S Darren Sharper (1.7mm), FB Heath Evans (1.35mm), DE Jimmy Wilkerson (1.75mm), RB Julius Jones (2mm), RB Ladell Betts (1.35mm), LB Danny Clark (1.4mm), LB Kawika Mitchell (2.4mm), S Pierson Prioleau (800K), S Matt Giordano (700K), WR/KR Courtney Roby (550K), CB Leigh Torrence (1mm), RB Pierre Thomas (450K), TE Tory Humphrey, RB DeShawn Wynn (450K). Most of these players are either past their primes or the Saints cannot afford to pay them what they will likely ask to receive. Shanle, Goodwin, Sharper, Wilkerson, Clark, and Mitchell are all over 30 and can be affordably replaced with younger players who likely won’t demand quite as much money. In some of their cases, the Saints already have replacements either waiting for their chance or already playing (Matt Tennant for Goodwin, Malcolm Jenkins for Sharper, Jonathan Casillas for Shanle). Outside linebacker is the one position that the Saints will likely look to fill through outside free agency, not through re-signing their own free agents. Runningbacks Jones and Betts were only brought in as injury replacements and are no longer needed; Wynn’s case isn’t much different. Prioleau and Giordano (safeties) along with Humphrey (tight end) are special teams players, nothing more. Torrence is by far the Saints’ worst CB, and I can’t imaine that they’ll look to keep him around. The two tough cuts on this list are Courtney Roby and Pierre Thomas. I really like Roby in the return game, but I just think that Adrian Arrington has shown too much potential with the chances the Saints have given him that there may not be a spot for Roby on the roster. The Saints have enough talent to handle the return game without him, so I think they’ll probably let him walk. Finally, there’s the PT Cruiser. Surprisingly, this decision was fairly easy. No matter what, there will be an NFL team that offers him starting RB money despite his injury troubles, and the Saints just can’t afford to pay him that kind of money. The emergence of Chris Ivory will allow New Orleans to give he and Reggie Bush the most touches, along with bringing in a low-priced short yardage 3rd RB. As long as Ivory and Bush can stay healthy (although this is asking a lot from Reggie), the Saints should be fine in the run game.

So there you have it, my list of who the Saints need to bring back and who they should let go. As always, I would love to hear anyone’s feedback concerning what I got right and what I got wrong.

Breaking Down the Saints’ 2011 List of Free Agents " HoopDat

Emeka Okafor's Importance to the Hornets by the Numbers

GeauxHornets — Fri, 18 Feb 2011 21:06:19 -0000

[Typed up a Staturday last night while at the NBPA press conference in Los Angeles.. then lost it to the story editor. Should have it some time this week, but for now bumping this great post to the front page. From the guys at Hoopdat who provide excellent Hornets coverage -R]

So, as you could probably tell from the recap of yesterday’s loss to Golden State, I’m a pretty big believer in Emeka Okafor’s role as the key to the Hornets’ success on defense. I utilized four key statistical categories to demonstrate just how important Okafor is; not just to the defense, but to the Hornets’ overall style of play. Thanks to Hoopsstats for the advanced data. You can find this entry at its original location here, as well as follow the rest of our work on facebook or twitter.

Team Efficiency Difference – This number takes the team’s offensive efficiency rating (for those interested, this is how efficiency and other categories are calculated) and subtracts the opponent’s efficiency rating. In the team’s first 49 games with Okafor, the Hornets averaged a team efficiency difference of +8.96, which would be good for 6th in the NBA for the entire season. In the 7 games without him, this number has dropped to -10.6, which would be 26th in the NBA for the whole year. It seems pretty clear that Okafor not only provides a positive impact on the team’s defense, but on the offensive side as well, something we probably could not have said about him last season.

Team Efficiency Difference (C) – This number is the same as above, except the stat takes only the center position into account. With Okafor, the Hornets average was 1.79, which would be good for 7th in the NBA for the entire season. Without him? This one is brutal: -10.6, by FAR beating out Toronto’s -7.1 for worst in the NBA over the whole year. While this number may more accurately display just how thin the Hornets are behind Oak, keep in mind that the totals with Oak still include those bad second-string centers (Grandenga) in limited minutes. This means that Okafor’s numbers are even more impressive because he has to make up for the horrific play of these backups.

Opposing PF/C Field Goal % - Hoopsstats refers to this total as "in the paint;" however, it actually equates to all stats accumulated from the PF and C positions, regardless of location on the court. This allows us, however, to measure Okafor’s impact in relation to the players he frequently matches up against instead of just the players who score from a certain area. With Emeka in the starting lineup, opposing PFs & Cs shot 46% from the field, which would be 3rd in the NBA. Without him, that number jumps a staggering 8 percent to 54%, ahead of only Detroit’s 54.6% season average. It’s tough to make it much simpler than that; a team’s easiest shots are the ones closest to the rim, and Okafor does a fantastic job of making those shots much more difficult.

Opposing PF/C Defensive Rebounding – Out of my four stat categories, this one is probably the least meaningful since the Hornets have been below average in this area all season. That being said, the only reason that the Hornets aren’t dead last in defensive rebounds allowed to opposing PFs or Cs is because of Okafor. With Emeka, the Hornets allowed an average of 16.59 defensive rebounds per game to those two positions, which would put them around 23rd in the NBA today. Without him, it’s been really ugly – 19.4, easily trumping Cleveland’s league-worst season total of 18.3. Okafor is the only player keeping the Hornets afloat here, and even when he returns, this is an area that Dell Demps needs to somehow address.

While there are absolutely other reasons for the Hornets’ poor play of late, there is no question that Okafor’s absence has been a primary contributor. This is not to say that the Hornets will pick up right where they left off when he returns after the all-star break, but Okafor’s presence in the starting lineup will unquestionably be a much-needed lift for a struggling group in New Orleans.

Q&A Session with New Orleans Hornets' GM Dell Demps

GeauxHornets — Tue, 25 Jan 2011 14:12:45 -0000

Before last night's game, my good friend and I were lucky enough to be able to take part in a great 45 minute question and answer session with the General Manager of the New Orleans Hornets, Mr. Dell Demps. Going into the Q&A, we both were excited for the opportunity to hear some exclusive information, but also expected a little bit of Demps side-stepping the answers that we were really looking for. To our surprise, however, he was incredibly straight forward with us, answering almost every question that we had without beating around the bush at all. Listed below are ten questions asked by us or some of the other 30-40 season ticket holders in attendance, along with a summary of Dell Demps' responses. You can find this entry at its original location here, as well as follow the rest of our work on facebook or twitter.

With the NBA's current ownership of the Hornets, how flexible is the league allowing you to be in terms of the salary cap and the luxury tax? (Andrew's question)

Demps first made it clear that the Hornets are currently about $5 million under the luxury tax line, so to go over the line, it would basically have to be in order to acquire what he called a "home run hitter." In his mind, there are about 15 such players in the NBA. If the situation presented itself where it became possible to acquire one of these players (he didn't give any specific names), then the team has been given the flexibility by the NBA to go over that tax line. In general, he assured us that despite the league's ownership of the team, it is "business as usual" throughout the Hornets' organization and that nothing has changed or tightened up.

What kind of upgrades are you currently pursuing for the Hornets' roster?

In Demps' words, the Hornets' main priority is finding a "dynamic big man." In particular, he said that he hopes to acquire a solid rebounder who is very active inside, and someone who has already proven himself in the NBA. It seems as if he isn't looking to roll the dice on an unproven player with upside, but instead someone who has already shown what he can do at this level on a consistent basis.

How is the impending expiration of the Collective Bargaining Agreement affecting your personnel and contract decisions? Are you taking a more conservative approach to preserve flexibility since the salary cap is likely to decrease, or are you acting in a more aggressive style? (My question)

Demps' first key word when answering this question was that he plans to be "proactive." He then went on to discuss a hire that they made of an in-house attorney who's lone job is to study the CBAs for the NFL, MLB, and NHL in order to try and forecast the results of the NBA's impending labor negotiations. Although the Hornets are keeping the potential effects of a new CBA in mind, Dell made it clear that he is willing to take risks, and if a great opportunity presents itself, he won't be afraid to jump on it.

Are the Hornets players in the Carmelo Anthony Sweepstakes?

Ah, the question so many people have been asking. Well, I hate to break it to you guys, but it's not happening. Dell was great in answering this question, telling us that he "is not allowed to talk about specific players to the media, but there's no rules against doing so with the fans." Demps discussed the double-edged sword nature of any Carmelo Anthony trade, saying that Denver's asking price is just too high. To acquire a player of his caliber (who he made clear is one of those 15 "home run hitters" he mentioned before), a team would need to trade a bunch of its current assets and leave themselves in a poor position to re-sign him after shipping away so many pieces of the team to acquire him. Regardless, Melo has made it clear to Demps and others that he wants to play on the east coast, and would not entertain the thought of staying in New Orleans.

When a team builds a successful, winning identity, it seems as if this culture lasts longer in larger markets (ex. LA, Boston) than in smaller markets. What can be done to create more balance throughout the league?

I don't remember exactly how that question was worded, but it invoked an answer concerning the current salary cap structure and NBA revenue sharing program. Demps for the most part agreed with this assessment, making note of the fact that the Hornets' total team payroll is around $65 million, whereas the Lakers are at about $90 million and Orlando is at $95 million. He made it clear that actions need to be taken in the upcoming labor negotiations to fix this discrepancy and create more parity in the league, as he plans to lobby for an increased revenue sharing program comparable to the NFL, as well as the obvious conclusion to slightly lower player salaries.

Will Marcus Thornton ever crack the starting lineup?

I stand corrected; I said earlier that the Carmelo question was the one that everyone's been asking, but I was wrong, it is definitely this one. Demps answered this question very well, and made all of us understand why it has taken so long for him to get substantial playing time. He began by stating that within the Hornets' organization, there are certain "non-negotiables," and at the top of that list was team defense. Before training camp, there were sessions specifically conducted for the benefit of the team's younger players to help get them acclimated to the new system that Coach Williams was bringing in. Thornton chose not to attend these off-season sessions and did not really put in the off-season work to be effective in Williams' defensive game plan, and when his lack of defensive prowess was combined with a poor shooting preseason, it led to him spending most of his time on the bench. With the Hornets' hot start, there was no real reason to mess with what was working, so he remained on the bench. As the season progressed, he began to improve defensively in practice, and has since earned more minutes. As for the "starting lineup" part of the question, Dell made it clear that he thinks Thornton's game is best suited for the second unit. Since there are only so many shots to go around for the starting five, Demps believes that having Thornton's scoring ability coming off the bench is the best fit for both him and the Hornets.

What are your plans in regards to David West's expiring contract? Are there contract extension negotiations taking place, and do you believe he will remain a Hornet? (Andrew's question)

Out of everything that Demps was asked, this is the only question that he seemed to step around a little bit. He told us that he has spoken numerous times with West and has made it clear that he "wants him to retire a Hornet, have his jersey hanging in the New Orleans Arena, have him receive standing ovations whenever he returns to a game, and have his family able to call for free tickets whenever they want." That being said, Dell enlightened us with a key piece of information regarding NBA extensions - players can only be extended based on the final year of their contracts. Therefore, although West's contract was front-loaded and he averaged more money throughout the duration of the contract than he is making this season, an extension must be based off of his salary this year. As a result, the chances of an extension before the end of this season are slim, but Demps hopes to negotiate a new contract with him after the season and before any other team has a chance at him.

What's the deal with Hornets games on Dish Network and DirecTV?

Demps admittedly wasn't the most knowledgeable person on this subject, but he did want to emphasize that it's in the works to get the Hornets games on both of these networks. He couldn't give a time frame, but he tried his best to assure everyone that the team has been working hard to make sure that everyone who wants to watch the Hornets will have that ability.

Are you happy with the New Orleans Arena?

This was an interesting question that I had not thought about before. Demps seemed to be of the opinion that there are both worse arenas and better arenas throughout the league, ranking the Hornets' facilities around "middle of the road" status. He joked that he wanted to walk across the street and ask the group that is currently upgrading the Superdome "we're next, right?" He made it pretty obvious that he would like to see a few upgrades to the New Orleans Arena, but it's not a pressing issue at the moment.

Do you believe that the Hornets will remain in New Orleans?

Demps focused on a couple points regarding this issue, jokingly mentioning along the way that if he didn't think that they were staying, he wouldn't have just closed on purchasing a house. The first point that he made was his conviction about the existence a local group who will step up and buy the team. Dell really believes that there is a group who will make this happen, thus securing the team's place in this city for the foreseeable future. He also mentioned that the Hornets' ability to hit the attendance benchmark (which he said had already been met prior to the Spurs game based on pregame sales) was very important and that he also believed that an adjusted lease agreement would be negotiated, an essential element for any potential buyer.

I'm sure I'm forgetting one or two things that he mentioned, but I think I have addressed most of the important points that he made throughout the 45 minute session. Dell Demps seems like a fantastic GM who really knows what he's doing, and I personally feel very comfortable with the team in his hands, as well as excited for the team's future here in New Orleans. I hope he has helped to answer most of your questions as well.