via i168.photobucket.com

In the wide world of sports, there are no sure things. This is why most people love sports. Optimism reigns supreme before each athletic season and you can never be truly assured of the outcome of that season until the games are actually played. Any team can theoretically come out a champion. Unless, of course, the Chicago Cubs are involved. In that case, you can be absolutely assured that they will lose and do so in hilarious fashion. And that, my friends, is why I love sports.

How the Cubs failed miserably in 2009:

Last season was a disappointing one for the Cubs and their fans (Note to next year's Cubs preview writer: You have my permission to copy and paste that sentence). In case you forgot, they spent about $135 million to go 83-78 and come nowhere near the playoffs -- they only played 161 games, but I think we can all agree that they would have lost the 162nd had MLB not decided to mercifully cut their season short. If we're lucky, that's just the first step to contracting them.

The 2009 Cubs scored 707 runs and gave up 672 in their third year under manager Lou Piniella, paying twice as much for offensive ineptitude very similar to the Reds. 1B Derrek Lee (145 OPS+) was their only reliable hitter, as Aramis Ramirez (130 OPS+) missed half the season with a deep mangina bruise and Alfonso Soriano (due $18 million annually through 2014) fell off a cliff, putting up a robust .241/.303/.423 line while playing his usual asstastic defense in LF. Big free agent signing Milton Bradley had a .378 OBP, but was only able to put up an OPS+ of 99. On the bright side, he gave Cubs fans someone to truly unreasonably rally against and bitch about, something they hadn't really been able to do since Steve Bartman. CF Kosuke Fukudome was average offensively and below average defensively, making him well worth the $12 million the Cubs have paid him the last two years and will pay him for the next two. C Geovany Soto (79 OPS+), SS Ryan Theriot (83 OPS+), and 2B Mike Fontenot (72 OPS+) rounded out the starting lineup for most of the year.

On the pitching side of things, the Cubs actually fielded a respectable starting five, with Ryan Dempster (3.64 ERA), Carlos Zambrano (3.77 ERA), Ted Lilly (3.10 ERA), Rich Harden (4.09 ERA), and Randy Wells (3.05 ERA) all starting at least 26 games and managing a .500 record or better. The bullpen was a different story. Kevin Gregg was their closer for most of the year, managing a stellar ERA+ of 95. Set-up man and part-time closer Carlos Marmol showed off his electrifying stuff and terrifying control, striking out 93, walking 65, and hitting 12 in 74 innings. That's a WHBPIP of more than 1, which my lack of research tells me is nearly unheard of for people not named Derrick Turnbow or Jason Neighborgall. The rest of the bullpen was rounded out by Angel Guzman, Sean Marshall, Aaron Heilman, and some other slapdicks that aren't really worth mentioning.

Following the Cubs' lack of a humiliating first round playoff sweep to a supposedly inferior team, they were sold to Tom Ricketts and his family, the owners of TD Ameritrade, who have shown their experience in fucking people over and wasted no time giving Cubs fans what they deserve.

With new ownership came high hopes for the offseason, and boy did GM Jim Hendry deliver. He wasted no time in signing and trading for an assortment of crappy and overpaid players assuring that the new additions will fit in perfectly with the rest of the team. A quick overview of the new Cubs you'll see this season:

LHRP John Grabow: Acquired at the deadline last year from the Pirates, Hendry promptly gave him roughly $7.5 million more than he was worth on a 2 year, $7.5 million deal.

CF Marlon Byrd: Byrd was given a 3 year, $15 million deal to man CF for the Cubs after three solid years in Texas. Of course, his OPS was 201, 139, and 133 points higher at the friendly confines in Arlington over those three years, but I'm sure giving an aging Texas outfielder coming off of a career year with ridiculous home/road splits a three year deal for too much money couldn't possibly backfire two years in a row, right? Ok, well, at least Marlon Byrd isn't black, right? Yeah, this will end well.

LF/RF/1B Xavier Nady: Hendry's final major league free agent signing of the offseason proved that he knows how to pick a winning player, this time giving former Pirate and Met Xavier Nady $3.3 million to sit on the bench until June.

SP Carlos Silva: In order to get rid of the two years remaining on Milton Bradley's contract, Hendry dealt him for the opportunity to pay Carlos Silva $16 million over the next two seasons. Carlos Silva was 5-18 with a 6.81 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 12.4 H/9, 1.2 HR/9, and 3.9 K/9 over his two seasons in Seattle. And he's the favorite for the #5 spot in the rotation.

Other acquisitions: RHRP Jeff Gray (acquired from A's for Aaron Miles and Jake Fox), 1B Kevin Millar (minor league contract), 1B/3B/LF/RF Chad Tracy (minor league contract), RHRP Mike Parisi (Rule V draft)

Of course, the acquisition of new players means the team had to get rid of some old ones, so here's a list of the players who were smart enough to get the hell out of Chicago this offseason: RHSP Rich Harden, OF/Professional Troublemaker Milton Bradley, RHRP Kevin Gregg, RHRP Aaron Heilman, OF Reed Johnson, LHRP Neal Cotts

As you can see, the Cubs made great progress this offseason, assuming their goal was to flush money down the drain and make the team worse (as it usually is). Going into 2010, expectations are unfortunately not as high for the Cubs, meaning we won't really get an opportunity to see them choke late in the year as they're unlikely to be in contention. Let's take a look at the Cubs expected team this year.

Projected 2010 Starting Lineup

SS Ryan Theriot - Theriot is entering his 4th season as the Cubs starting SS. He brings virtually no power or other offensive value to the table and has an annoying way to pronounce his last name. Despite above average speed, he's not a very good base stealer. Above average defense at SS is his calling card, I suppose. Annoyingly qualifies as a Bill Hall All Star, with a career .321/.374/.423 line against the Reds.

RF Kosuke Fukudome - The Fuck You Dome has two years left on the lease and should continue to not hit lefties or anything at all in the second half. He's expected to sit in favor of Sam Fuld, Micah Hoffpauir, or the aforementioned Xavier Nady vs. lefties this year, although none of them strike fear into the heart of opponents either. On the bright side (for Cubs fans), his defense should improve now that he's moved out of CF and into RF. On the bright side (for Reds fans), he's a career .167 hitter against our mighty Redlegs.

1B Derrek Lee - Regained his power stroke last year after three years of diminished production in that regard, also heading into a contract year this season. He's unlikely to repeat his .306/.393/.579 campaign from last year, though part of me hopes that he does so the Cubs can give him the giant stupid extension we know they want to. Has more homers (32) against the Reds than any other team, which is kind of a dick move.

3B Aramis Ramirez - Monster hitter at 3B who tends to struggle a bit with health and defense. He has a player option for 2011 worth $14.6 million, so a big year would likely mean he'll get a large chunk of change on the free agent market. Is a career .336/.391/.579 hitter against the Reds, which is also kind of a dick move. He and D-Lee better get out by 2011, because they won't keep having that success when they're facing Aroldis Chapman instead of Eric Milton.

CF Marlon Byrd - I already talked about this jerkoff above. Interesting note: Has never faced the Reds before, despite spending the first 4 years of his career in the NL with the Phillies and Nationals.

LF Alfonso Soriano - Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha. Don't you wish your boss was dumb enough to give you $90 million over the next 5 years to suck at everything you try to do?

C Geovany Soto - He learned his lesson last year, hitting like total crap after stealing Joey Votto's Rookie of the Year award the year before. The Cubs blamed it on the fact that he spent all winter smoking pot, getting the munchies, and putting on 40 pounds, but I think it's more likely that he was being punished by Captain Canuck for his crimes against Canadianity. He reportedly came to spring training in much better shape this year, meaning he's probably moved onto heavier drugs.

2B Mike Fontenot - Inexplicably being awarded the 2B job by Lou Piniella over vastly superior hitter and adequate enough fielder Jeff Baker, he also pronounces his last name annoyingly. He's Fonte-not a good hitter at all, although his 2B defense is respectable. The Cubs are also hoping he can be their back-up SS this season, despite his 4 career appearances there. Just a .213 career hitter against the Reds, as a bonus.

Projected Bench Players: OF Sam Fuld, 1B/OF Micah Hoffpauir, 2B/3B Jeff Baker, 1B/OF Xavier Nady, C Koyie Hill

Projected Rotation:

RHSP Carlos Zambrano - Not ruining this fatass's arm is just another thing that Dusty didn't do right in Chicago, but Big Whiny Z has still failed to top 200 innings each of the past two years. While he's hardly the ace that Cubs fans make him out to be, he's generally owned the Reds throughout his career, with a 2.95 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 33 appearances.

LHSP Ted Lilly - Put up a stellar season last year with a 3.10 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. He's in the final year of his contract like several others, although luckily all the really overpaid and really crappy players seem to still be signed for a couple more years (or 5, like Alfonso Soriano. Hahahahaha!) There are some injury concerns about Lilly going into this season. I predict he'll be cruising to the DL and see Cubs fans as he pass, and when he goes twice they're gonna kick his Lilly ass.

RHSP Ryan Dempster - We all know about Ryan Dempster. Screw Ryan Dempster.

RHSP Randy Wells - Put up a 147 ERA+ in 165 innings last year as a 26-year-old rookie. His minor league numbers and peripherals indicate this was a bit of a fluke, but his overall effectiveness should still fall somewhere between David Wells and Kip Wells. Speaking of people named Wells, is anybody else shocked that the Cubs didn't trade for Vernon Wells to shore up their CF hole this offseason? That contract looks like it was written by Jim Hendry himself.

RHSP Carlos Silva - The 5th starter spot is still technically up for grabs, but I'd like to think the Cubs will live up to their Cubbiness and hand the spot to Silva. Quick question: Carlos Silva vs. a lineup of CF Taveras, SS Gonzalez, 1B Hernandez, 3B Rosales, 2B Hairston, LF Patterson, RF McDonald, and C Tatum...does the world explode?

Key Relievers: LHRP John Grabow, RHRP Jeff Samardzija, LHRP Sean Marshall, RHRP Carlos Marmol

The Cubs lost set-up man Angel Guzman for the year with an arm injury, dealing a big blow to an already weak bullpen. Marshall and Grabow are solid if unspectacular lefties out of the pen, while Samardzija was absolutely awful last season but has some upside. Marmol is scary wild and I wouldn't count on him to close out games. If the offense is actually able to score enough runs for the Cubs to have some leads, I wouldn't expect this bullpen to hold onto them.

Prospects to watch:

RHP Andrew Cashner - The Cubs first round pick out of TCU a couple years ago, Cashner is likely to see some time in the Cubs bullpen at some point this season. He could be a potential closer one day, although the Cubs would like to give him a shot as a starter.

SS Starlin Castro - Listed at 19 years old, Castro has impressed in Cubs camp just as he did in AA last year. Projects to be a good contact hitter with a little pop, while opinions on his defense vary from potential plus defender to a guy who will have to move off of the position. If the Cubs are smart he'll get a full year in the minors this year, but nobody has ever accused the Cubs of being smart.

Overall 2010 Outlook: The Cubs need pretty much their entire offense to rebound from last year, plus have Lee, Byrd, and the pitching staff not regress, plus have some no-names step up and have big years in the bullpen. All while being the Cubs. If you're waiting for the opportunity to see the Cubs exit the playoffs in embarrassing fashion, I wouldn't hold your breath. Unless you're a Cubs fan, in which case I suggest you hold your breath for as long as you possibly can. At the bottom of Lake Michigan. The Cubs have all the pinnings of a 4th place team on the decline, and I boldly predict that they will not win the World Series this season or any time in the near (or distant) future.

I saw a link to this article on C. Trent's blog and if true, I am again impressed. I'm not gonna lie, I was kind of expecting the Reds to use the Duran signing as proof that they were committed to spending on international players without actually consistently doing so, but between this apparent signing as well as the rumors that they're very much in the mix for Inoa, it looks the Reds are very much for real.

Rodriguez rates as the clear second best overall prospect and the best hitting prospect in this class of internationals. Duran, had the Reds not found a loophole in the rule and signed him, likely would've slotted just behind Rodriguez as the third best overall prospect and second best hitting prospect. Michael Inoa, the Dominican pitcher the Reds are battling the Rangers and A's (among other teams) for, is the consensus top prospect. Could you imagine if the Reds managed to land Inoa along with Duran and Rodriguez? That's one hell of an influx of talent to your farm system for a total money commitment about equal to a year of Corey Patterson and what we ended up paying Mike Stanton. We obviously won't know anything for sure until July 2nd, but if the Rodriguez deal is indeed done, that's something to get excited about as a Reds fan. Here's the blurb on Rodriguez from the article:

2. Yorman Rodriguez, CF, Venezuela: Yorman Rodriguez has been touted as the top position player in this class for some time. His selling point is a rare combination plus-plus speed and plus-plus raw power. He’s a five-tool talent with an outstanding frame, athleticism, and defensive tools, but like most July 2nd hitting prospects, he gets a wide range of reviews on his ability to hit.

The common refrain on a raw bat are heard with Rodriguez: lunges at the ball, trouble identifying breaking pitches, trouble with high level stuff, questionable approach, and 5 o’clock power (batting practice only). Some players grow out of it, some never adjust, so the team that gets Rodriguez believes in his ability to make adjustments.

He has all the elements of a star centerfielder. He’s been compared to Miguel Cabrera for his powerful bat and Venezuelan bloodlines, but more athletic comparisons like Cesar Cedeno, Eric Davis, or a right-handed hitting Carlos Beltran seem more apt. That being said, Rodriguez, or any of the hitters below him, could go to the GCL and hit .180 for three seasons and make everyone look stupid, but those kind of comparisons let you know why teams will pay him and that the tools are for real.

There are rumors that since his agent has stopped shopping him around that a deal has been struck and the Reds are rumored to be that team—another team new to being a major player on the international scene, spending $2.0 million in March on 16 year old power-hitting OF Juan Duran, and have already spent $3-4 million this season on pre July 2nd prospects. The Yankees, Mariners, Red Sox, and Cardinals are all heavily interested and Rodriguez figures to get a bonus between $2.5 million and $3.0 million, which would top Miguel Cabrera’s $1.9 million bonus in 1999 as the highest in Venezuelan history.

Now, don't get me wrong here, Volquez has been absolutely tremendous. I think he's surpassed any expectations that anyone has had for him, and he's shown that he can be a pretty badass pitcher even without great control. But I miss Josh Hamilton. I miss rooting for him, sure, but I really miss him on the field. While we continue to enjoy the fine "contributions" of Corey Patterson, Josh Hamilton has been perhaps the most valuable player in the AL so far.

His April stats? .330/.379/.591. 6 homers, 1 triple, 10 doubles, 16 runs, and a major league leading (by six!) 32 RBIs (Encarnacion and Griffey are tied for the Reds lead with 15). 11 walks, and just 13 strikeouts. And he's hitting .346 against lefties and has played in every single Rangers game so far. The only area that he hasn't been spectacular? Well, he only has one assist so far, but I suspect that might have something to do with nobody running on him.

I appreciate what Volquez has done, but I can't help but be really sad that we're missing what Hammy is doing. We all saw the insane amount of talent he had. This isn't a hot month, this is Josh Hamilton. Surely I can't be alone in missing him?

The other Tampa Bay beat writer named Marc, Marc Topkin, says it's a 6-year deal worth $17.5 million. The Rays hold a 2014 option, and a two-year option for 2015-2016. If all the options are picked up, the total value of the deal comes to 9 years, $44 million -- giving the Rays cost-certainty for the next six and then a shot at Longoria's first three free agent years for a total of $26.5 million. Even if Longoria doesn't end up as the superstar that almost everyone thinks he's a lock to become, this is still going to be a good deal for the Rays. And Longoria benefits, because he's banked $17 million and likely quite a bit more after just six games in the majors.

I add this because the one prospect who is almost unanimously regarded as superior to Longoria is our own Jay Bruce, who is currently toiling in the minors with a .935 OPS because we wish to delay his arbitration and free agency by a year. This, of course, while we get to watch the Corey Patterson show (for $3 million!). Now that the precedent has been set, can anybody see any reason why the Reds shouldn't get on this, extend Jay Bruce, and have him up in the majors now as well as the next decade?

Belisle and Ross will both start the year on the DL, along with Gonzalez. Taking their places are Bako and Lincoln. In terms of good news, Votto is sticking around and starting.

The Fay:

Starting lineup:
Corey Patterson CF
Jeff Keppinger SS
Ken Griffey Jr. RF
Brandon Phillips 2B
Adam Dunn LF
Edwin Encarnacion 3B
Joey Votto 1B
Paul Bako/Javy Valentin C

We've gotta clear 3 spots on the 40 man for Lincoln, Cueto, Bako, Patterson, and Mercker, so that could get interesting. My guesses on who we dump there: Hanigan, Coutlangus, and Drew T. Anderson. Tyler Pelland and Ramon Ramirez also appear to be possibilities. Cutting Stanton and losing Capellan cleared up two spots already.

Rate your level of satisfaction with the roster.

Fun note: I have no idea how to work these fancy new "FanPosts", leading to my work looking moderately retarded. If only pressing enter actually meant something...

From MLBTR:

John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer is hearing a rumor that the Reds are "actively seeking a catcher."  He speculates that Ryan Freel could be trade bait.

Fay's note conveniently gels with some info from a Jeff Brantley radio appearance that a reader passed along.  Brantley reportedly said the Reds have been scouting the Rangers' Gerald Laird.  On a not necessarily related note, Brantley also mentioned that they may look to trade Matt Belisle.

MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan recently wrote that the Rangers don't intend to trade Laird despite some interest.  On the other hand, Jon Daniels admitted in Sullivan's article that he wouldn't turn a deaf ear to anything.  Laird is set to be the Rangers' starting catcher this year.  Jarrod Saltalamacchia would take on a smaller role or try Triple A.

The Reds could also consider trying to acquire San Diego's Michael Barrett, who has played under Dusty Baker with the Cubs.  Bengie Molina and Ramon Hernandez may also be available.

I'd be okay with moving Freel and his contract despite the fact that I think he's gonna rebound with a .360 OBP and his usual speed/defense/versatility/multiple DL trip contributions. I think the backlash towards him has been thoroughly excessive, but he's not an integral part of the team. Not sure that we could move him for what we want at catcher or not, but it's worth a shot.

Of the catching options mentioned, I'd be opposed to Laird, given that he's up the same alley as David Ross (strong defender, weak hitter), except I think Ross is a better player than Laird anyways. Barrett is an interesting option, and I think his bat would play well, but he has a poor defensive reputation and he's kind of a dick, and if we don't give up Freel in a deal to get him, he's making a solid chunk of change (I think around $5 mil this season). Ramon Hernandez is the most expensive option available, but he's not a bad defender and I think his bat will rebound from last year. He'd likely cost Freel and a solid prospect (I'd say anyone after the Stubbs/Frazier/Mesoraco tier would probably be the asking price), and he's due something like $17 million over the next two seasons, so he'd take a lot of money that we're probably not willing to spend.

The Belisle note is interesting as well. If the Reds can acquire a solid major league piece for Belisle, I'm all for it. I think Belisle is a dime-a-dozen type player if he's relegated to bullpen use and I'm not convinced he's gonna be anything more than a little below-average as a starter. That said, the Reds are gonna need pitching depth this season, so it might be wise to keep him around so we don't have to see Tom Shearn again. Personally, I'd take a run at Reggie Willits from the Angels, but I get the feeling Krivdawg is content with his current CF options and wouldn't want to acquire a potential leadoff-hitting CF actually capable of filling the role successfully.

Either way, I think we see another move before the season starts.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/international-affairs/2008/265719.html

The international signing period is still four months away, but the Reds have already made a big splash in the Dominican Republic, giving a $2 million signing bonus to 16-year-old outfielder Juan Duran, a player who many thought would not be eligible to sign until July 2.

"We've scouted him extensively," Reds scouting director Chris Buckley said. "We had not thought he was eligible until this coming July 2. But we found out he was eligible, and when we did we were able to react. (Assistant general manager) Bob Miller and (director of Latin American scouting) Tony Arias deserve the credit on this one, because Bob was going over guys we were preparing for this year's signing period, and he said, 'You can sign this guy right now.'

"We did not know that, but when we found that out, we were able to go get him because of the work Tony has done. He compares favorably to this year's high drafts."

Players who are 16 years old are eligible to sign with major league teams during the international signing period, which lasts from July 2 to Aug. 31. Players who turn 16 years old during the international signing period are eligible to sign with teams on their birthdays.

Duran's birthday is Sept. 2, 1991, making him a 16-year-old who seemed to have barely missed the cutoff point to sign during last year's international signing period, and it appeared he would have to wait until the commencement of the 2008 period to sign. However, the rules state that for an international player to be eligible to sign, he must be 16 years old at the time of the signing and turn 17 years old by either Sept. 1 or by the end of his first professional season.

Players signed during the international signing period are not eligible to play that same year, so their first professional season comes the following calendar year. For example, a player signed during the 2007 international signing period would have his first professional season be the 2008 season.

The Reds realized that they could sign Duran if they assigned him to their 2008 roster in Billings in the Rookie-level Pioneer League, where the regular season ends on Sept. 5. Since Duran will turn 17 before the end of the 2008 Pioneer League season, he was eligible to sign before the 2008 international signing period and was eligible to sign back on his birthday last year.

One American League international scouting director said that he had Duran in for a workout as recently as last month.

"I think it caught everybody by surprise," he said. "Even his agents were promoting him as a July 2 guy. He really doesn't follow the July 2 cutoff for this year. I guess we all thought that, with the Sept. 1 cutoff in mind, we all figured he was eligible this year instead of last year."

Duran, who bats and throws righthanded and checks in at roughly 6-foot-6, 190 pounds, likely will not play a game this year in the PL, however, where at 16 years old he would be by far the youngest player in the league. The Reds cannot assign him to the Gulf Coast League, since the GCL season ends on Aug. 27, so sending him to the GCL would void his contract.

Buckley and Arias were both with the Blue Jays when the team drafted outfielder Alex Rios as an 18-year-old with the 19th overall pick in the 1999 draft.

"He compares favorably, only he's bigger and stronger at this age than Rios was," Buckley said. "He's more physical, and he has shown some of the same feel for hitting that Alex displayed.

"We don't have a second-round pick this year so we wanted to be creative and get more talent any way we can."

The $2 million bonus that Duran received was $500,000 more than the Red Sox gave to Dominican third baseman Michael Almanzar, who received the highest bonus of the 2007 international signing period. In 2006, the Giants gave Dominican first baseman Angel Villalona that year's top bonus at $2.1 million. It is the highest international bonus in Reds history, and tied for the third-largest signing bonus given to any player in club history.

Arias said that Duran was one of the Reds' top targets for July 2 before they realized within the last week that they could sign him.

"His body and offensive ability stick out like a sore thumb," Arias said. "In batting practice, he was just hitting them over the trees in our complex, hitting them out to center and right-center field. You can tell just tell from the way the ball jumps off his bat.

"I've never seen a 16-year-old with this type of ability. I talked to some people in the Dominican Republic who crossed paths with Vladimir Guerrero at that age, guys who have been scouting in the Dominican for more than 20 years, and they said they've never come into contact with a bat like this. He's got 80 power potential (on the 20-80 scouting scale) and just gets tremendous loft. In my opinion, in terms of his bat and his body, he's a better overall package than Angel Villalona. We wanted to change the perception in the baseball industry that Cincinnati is a cheap organization. We want to get back to being the Big Red Machine."

Another AL international scouting director said his team was also interested in Duran.

"We liked him," another AL international scouting director said. "We saw him as a corner outfielder, big, long-limbed, real bat potential. He's definitely a guy a lot of people liked."

One National League international scouting director compared Duran's body to that of a young Juan Gonzalez.

"He might end up being in center field because he's a plus runner. It's all going to come down to how big he gets and if he slows down," the scout said. "He's going to put on some weight, so whether he retains that speed will tell if he ends up at a corner.

"He's got some bat speed, and the power will come from the bat speed, but it all comes down to how thick he grows."

The same NL international scouting director also noted that Duran has been bothered by an elbow problem--which Arias said might have something to do with Duran having grown six inches in the past year--and that Duran only started throwing as far as 40 feet last month.

"He went to a tournament in Puerto Rico in the winter, and he didn't throw there. I saw him in February, and all he did was hit. I don't know what the up-to-date situation with his elbow is, but maybe they already checked him. Was he worth that kind of money? I guess he was to the Reds because they think he's an impact guy, but to me, I don't think so."
One AL international scouting director called him "one of those guys who don't come around very often."

"He's got all the tools," he said. "He's a pretty good player, very advanced for his age. I think it was a good investment. He's a good athlete, he has above-average power right now and he has a chance for 80 power (on the 20-80 scouting scale). He demonstrated every ability that you like to see in a kid. He's a very outgoing kid, good swing. There's no doubt about his approach, bat speed and power . . . he has all the common denominators you like to see, good balance, rhythm and a pretty good idea of what to do at the plate.

"If he has to go to a corner (outfield position), he certainly has the power to go there. But right now I'd give him every opportunity to play center field because he's light on his feet and has a good idea how to play out there. He's probably 6-foot-6, 195 pounds, somewhere in that area, so he could gain a whole 40 pounds with no problem. You look at this guy, and you hate to compare guys to major league players, especially at his age, but he could be a young Dave Winfield in the making."

I, for one, am shocked that the Reds were the ones to not only find this loophole, but also the ones to spend $2 million on a player. Hopefully it's the beginning of a significant trend, and either way, I'm pretty excited that the Reds have their own Villalona/Tabata/Martinez/Triunel type to overhype.

I figure some of you know by now, but I haven't seen mention anywhere around here and this is fairly relevant to our own news-gathering and the like. The always-polarizing C. Trent Rosencrans, formerly of the Cincinnati Post, has been hired as the online beat writer for 1530 Homer, and as such, shall continue his (in my opinion) highly useful Reds coverage for us as he did last season. On top of that, he'll also be covering the Bengals and various college teams from the area. I know some of you dislike him because of the gigantic sticks lodged in your respective asses, but I'm absolutely pumped that I don't have to count on Fay the Generally Useless for my Reds updates this season.

His new blog: http://www.1530homer.com/pages/ctrent.html

Baseball America is releasing the NL first this year, meaning we get the Reds list about two months before we did last year. Here's the top 10, with a quick summary of each guy from me:

1.      Jay Bruce, of - The best prospect in baseball -- and it's not close. Bruce does everything well and JJ Cooper sees him as a future hall of famer.
   
2.     Homer Bailey, rhp - Though he struggled in the majors last year, he still projects as an ace-level talent. It may take a few years for him to adjust, as he's still pretty raw, but anyone who doubts him now is probably gonna feel pretty stupid in 2010.
   
3.     Joey Votto, 1b/of - Though Votto is unlikely to be a perennial all-star, I like him as a consistent .850+ OPS guy in the majors.
   
4.     Johnny Cueto, rhp - More polished than Homer and likely to make a major league appearance at some point next year. He's presently tearing up the Dominican Winter League as well.
   
5.     Drew Stubbs, of - His bat really came alive the last month of last season, and his defense was already elite. If the hitting improvement is real, Stubbs is gonna need to change his name to Studds.
   
6.     Devin Mesoraco, c - Didn't do much in the minors this past year, but he was battling injury and still showed off his nice tools. He's nowhere near the majors.
   
7.     Todd Frazier, ss - Personally, I like Frazier more than both Stubbs and Mesoraco. He's not gonna stick at SS, but I think he'll be an impact bat at 3B. I expect we'll see him in the majors by the middle of 2009 as well.
   
8.     Juan Francisco, 3b - Huge raw power, huge lack of plate discipline, huge arm, and huge amount of strikeouts. I like Adrian Beltre as a comparison for him, personally.
   
9.     Josh Roenicke, rhp - He's got a fastball that runs into the high-90s and some dirty secondary stuff, and he's a converted outfielder so he hasn't been pitching long. He's a future closer, in both mine and BA's opinions.
   
10.     Matt Maloney, lhp - Not as good as the numbers look following his trade to the Reds, but he should be a decent back of the rotation starter and he's close to major league ready right now.

Now that I've had some time to reflect on the season (read: I'm bored as hell at the moment), I'm gonna toss out some random, possibly inane, possibly enlightening thoughts on the Reds year. It shall be glorious and you shall all be better after reading it.

As most of you know, Maloney was the bounty we recieved for Kyle Lohse back at the deadline. At the time, I was somewhat unhappy with the deal because I believed we could've gotten more, but Maloney has thus far made that look like an excellent deal.

Maloney is a 6-4 lefty with a fastball in the upper-80s and a plus breaking ball and change. His control is decent but not outstanding, and he does not do a very good job of keeping the ball on the ground, allowing a fairly high amount of homers with a groundball percentage easily under 50%.

Despite this fairly pedestrian scouting report, Maloney's already decent numbers absolutely took off once the Reds dealt for him. In 45 innings over 7 starts between AA and AAA, Maloney allowed 27 hits, 9 walks, and had a whopping 62 strikeouts. That's a WHIP of .80 and a K/9 up near 13. Small sample size or not, those are some absolutely ridiculous numbers. He still allowed too many homers (6 in 45 innings), but he flashed some really badass numbers. It's not really backed up by scouting reports, but I'm significantly more hopeful that he can be a #4 starter now than I was when we dealt for him.

Personally, I think the smartest thing for next year would be to have a starting rotation of Harang, Arroyo, Bailey, Cueto, and Maloney right out of spring training. It would have growing pains, but it has the ability there to be absolutely outstanding. We might as well get it some experience.

Bullpen-wise to start next year, I'd like to see Bray, Majewski (well, like to see is an overstatement with him), Coutlangus, Burton, Roenicke, Viola, and Weathers. Screw the old guys, I wanna see these young power arms. This is not a team that is very likely to contend next year, so we might as well make use of it as a growth year like the Tigers did a few years ago. I am presently pumped about this team's pitching future, and that's a pretty rare thing indeed.

http://frontier.cincinnati.com/blogs/spring/

Following the Reds game today, Wayne Krivsky said that Jay Bruce was named BA's player of the year. Not a big surprise, I suppose, but still nice to see.

In other Bruce news, he was not called up for September and will not be called up, but will be playing for team USA in November and will be invited to major league camp to begin next year.

Game one of the doubleheader's line-up:

Hopper cf
Keppinger ss
Griffey rf
Phillips 2b
Cantu 1b
Encarnacion 3b
Valentin c
Ellison lf
Ramirez p

Pete said Gonzalez, Ross and Dunn will be playing the second game.

Dunn sits for Jason Ellison for the second time in a week and evidently Hamilton will be sitting both games. Yes, Dunn and Hamilton are both significantly worse against lefties. AND THEY'RE STILL WAY FUCKING BETTER THAN JASON ELLISON IS AGAINST ANYONE.

aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaagh I fucking hate idiot managers.

As some of you may or may not know, Wily Mo has been awful in Boston this year and managed to slip through waivers. To clear up a rosterspot for hot-shot prospect Clay Buchholz to make a spot start, the Red Sox have traded Wily Mo to the Nationals for a PTBNL and cash considerations -- so basically nothing.

I don't care how bad Wily Mo has been this year, how you can just give up a player with his talent for nothing seems downright stupid. Theo Epstein is a very good GM, but this move looks short-sighted as hell. And it's a great buy-low move from Bowden, who continues to stack up former Reds.

Continue reading this post »

BA has come out with their annual manager surveys listing the best tools in each of the leagues in the minors.

Reds prospects represented:

Juan Francisco, best power in the Midwest League

Drew Stubbs, best defensive outfielder in the Midwest League

Jay Bruce, best batting prospect and best power in the Florida State League

Josh Roenicke, best reliever in the Florida State League

Michael Griffin, best defensive 3B in the Florida State League

Joey Votto, best batting prospect and best strikezone judgment in the International League

This was done via survey of minor league managers fairly early in the year. Interesting (and a touch disappointing) that neither Bailey nor Cueto is represented at all, but nice to see some hitting prospects up there as well as a good reliever prospect in Roenicke.

This is just kind of pathetic if true. - JD

Per RotoWorld.

The Nationals have discussed Adam Dunn with the Reds, FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal reports.
No deal is close, but the Reds felt the Nationals were serious enough to send scouts to watch the Single-A Potomac team that's loaded with most of the Nationals' best position prospects. Dunn and RFK would seem to be a terrible fit, but the Nationals are playing for 2008, when they'll be in a new ballpark. Of course, Dunn has the option of becoming a free agent after this season, meaning the Nationals may be acquiring little more than draft picks if they pulled off a trade. However, they would to their best to entice him to stay. That he'd be reunited with good friend Austin Kearns would improve the sales pitch. Jul. 23 - 12:56 am et

I'm gonna go cry now. The only particularly worthwhile prospect the Nats have is Chris Marrero, who is a corner outfield type with pretty tremendous power potential. He just turned 19 three weeks ago, so he's young, and he's got 18 homers so far this year as well as a .302 average. His walk rate is mediocre but his strikeout rate is okay. All in all, the Nats system might be the worst in baseball. Not cool.

Per Lord Voldemort:

OF Ryan Freel has been sent to Class AAA Louisville on a rehabilitation assignment and is scheduled to play in Sunday's home game against Pawtucket as the designated hitter...he has not played since 5/28 vs Pit, when he suffered contusions to his head and neck after an outfield collision with Norris Hopper.

It sounds to me like he could be back within a week or two, which is excellent. No reported signs of post-concussion syndrome. I know some of you are against him coming back, but I honestly can't wait to see less Norris Hopper in the lineup, and I really don't think Freel would even consider not coming back unless there was no possible way his body could handle it.

With every start this kid throws, I become more and more intrigued by him. Information is a bit hard to come by, but the numbers are getting hard to ignore. For those of you unfamiliar with him, he's a 24-year-old RHP out of Lewis & Clark State College. At 6-4, and a reportedly solid 230 pounds, he's pretty ideally sized for a pitcher. We drafted him in the 11th round of the 2005 draft, and he's been pretty nifty since then. His rookie year in the Pioneer League was mediocre over 53 innings, but last year in Dayton he had a 2.76 ERA in 150 innings, giving up just 5 homeruns. He struck out 7.32 per nine innings and walked just 2.28, while giving up less than 8 hits per nine innings. The number that stands out the most in all this, however, is the 1.93 GO/AO rate -- meaning close to two-thirds of the balls put in play on him were on the ground. That's obviously something we've been looking for.

While interesting last year, this year is when he's really taken off. He started out in Sarasota as a 24-year-old, so while his 2.20 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 9.00 K/9, 2.15 GO/AO (groundout/airout) and 1 homerun allowed in 41 innings were impressive, they had to be taken with a grain of salt. Wayne the Mighty, in wisdom never seen before and certainly not seen since in regards to prospects, promoted Fisher to Chattanooga, where he has proceeded to utterly dominate. In 43 innings since being promoted, Fisher has had a 1.26 ERA with 48 strikeouts, 13 walks, 35 hits, 3 homeruns allowed, and a 1.57 GO/AO. His combined numbers for the year are a 6-2 record, 1.71 ERA, 69 hits allowed on a .220 opponents batting average, with 89 strikeouts to just 20 walks. He's allowed four homeruns on the year with a combined GO/AO of 1.84. I'm usually skeptical of older prospects dominating lower levels (see: Valaika, Chris), but Fisher was drafted old out of a small college and has had a normal career path, despite being 24.

At this point, the numbers have become tough to ignore, and I'm really curious about what Fisher offers. His real first name is Charles, so searching for Carlos Fisher may not yield you much -- though it appears, based on a baseball cube search, that he was drafted in the 15th round of the 2001 draft as a hitter out of high school by the Padres, but did not sign. The fact that he was a hitter and probably went to college as a hitter adds even more hope for me.

All that said, this diary has two purposes. First and foremost, if anyone has some information on what his stuff is like (I know he throws a cutter and sinker and is "very competitive", but that's it), I'd love to have it. The other purpose, of course, is to inform everyone here of a very interesting looking Reds prospect. That, and so that I can say I was the first on his bandwagon if he turns out to be a sweet prospect and really kicks ass for us in a year or two.

It's the day after an off day, Juan Castro is in the lineup because Gonzalez is evidently still not fully healthy, so, of course, Norris Hopper is starting in RF over Junior.

Hopper 9
Hamilton 8
Phillips 4
Dunn 7
Encarnacion 5
Hatteberg 3
Ross 2
Castro 6
Harang 1

That's fantastic. I never was much of a fan of scoring runs anyways, so this works out perfectly.

Oh, and in case you guys were wondering, yes, I do blame Norris Hopper for this. Go to hell, Norris Hopper. Actually, no, don't, because I'm already there and I don't want you near me. Go to heaven, Norris Hopper.

Why not Joey Votto? Hopper can play center, and both Conine and Votto can be emergency outfielders if necessary. Makes more sense than calling up Wise. - JD

I haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaate Wayne Krivsky.

Seriously though, this team has gone from quite possibly the best bench in the league to what is pretty much unquestionably the worst in a very short period of time. Chad Moeller, Dewayne Wise, Juan Castro, Javier Valentin, and either Conine or Hatteberg, all while we've got Norris Hopper starting in CF. Injuries or not, that's downright embarrassing.

Wise doesn't deserve another chance. He's never come close to being a competent hitter in the majors and he's not going to this time, either. And I'd rather see Valentin starting in CF than Hopper if it's a righty on the mound.

Freel 3b
Hopper cf
Griffey rf
Phillips 2b
Dunn lf
Conine dh
Hatteberg 1b
Castro ss
Moeller c

Harang p

Racist Mascots
Sizemore cf
Blake 3b
Hafner 1b
Martinez dh
Peralta ss
Delluci lf
Michaels rf
Barfield 2b
Shoppach c

Byrd p

There's only so much Norris Hopper, Juan Castro, and Chad Moeller that I can take.

Groin issues, so it's not much of a worry, but I guess it gives Krivsky an out for not having him up instead of Livingston. That's convenient.

Very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very convenient.

He's undergoing arthroscopic elbow surgery (per RotoWorld) and is gonna miss about three months. I don't know what to think. The human in me feels a little sorry for him. The Geki in me is a bit sad it's not Tommy John. And the Reds fan in me is just happy he's out for three months. The Cards are in some big time trouble right now.

In their infinite wisdom and due to the bullpen struggles the team has undergone thus far, the Phillies have decided to move their #1 starter to the set-up man position in order to improve the bullpen. Brett Myers, their opening day starter, will now work ahead of Tom Gordon out of the pen. This is pretty much equivalent to the Reds moving Aaron Harang to the pen. Yikes.

Per RotoWorld:

Nationals agreed to terms with outfielder Austin Kearns on a three-year contract with a club option for 2010.
The option would cover his second year of free agency. No word on the terms yet, but the guaranteed portion of this deal is probably worth about $16 million. Kearns asked for $4.25 million and was offered $3.65 million in arbitration.

Yeah, that's totally killer on a team's finances. Three years, $16 mil with a club option. Chalk up another negative for the trade.

Marc: LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. -- Ken Griffey Jr. looked sharp in his black suit before the Baseball America awards banquet this afternoon. He held court for a while, talking about various topics including how stunned he was to receive the award from BA.

The local media's biggest questions revolved around a potential move to a corner outfield position, and he didn't object to answering them. First and foremost, the Reds have approached Griffey's agent, Brian Goldberg, and asked Griffey to at least keep consider the possibility. Goldberg said Griffey definitely will.

"They just talked to us about being open-minded in spring training, kind of see how he's moving and see how he feels," said Goldberg. "He's preparing to play center field, but based on how things go in spring training, he'll be open-minded."

Griffey has said before that he doesn't believe the difference in wear and tear on his body would be that great if he moved to a corner position, and he reiterated that today.

"It's going to be the same either way," he said. "I've got to prepare myself to go out there and play 162 games."

Would he make the move if the Reds came to him and said it would be the best thing for the team?

"We'll cross that bridge when we cross it," he said. "Right now, it's a matter of me going out there and playing center for this team and not worrying about speculation and what people think. I'm going to go out there and prepare to play."

My read: If the Reds could somehow acquire an established center fielder, Griffey would move without hesitation. But they'd have to do plenty of convincing if they wanted to shift him to make room for Ryan Freel or Chris Denorfia. Those aren't guys you can start out there six or seven days a week.

I've got mixed feelings on this, but it's a positive development.

I'd be fine with this. Guy's supposedly the best defensive SS in baseball. - JD

From RotoWorld:

Free agent Alex Gonzalez reportedly has a three-year, $15 million offer on the table, likely from either the White Sox or the Reds.
The Blue Jays have also been talking to Gonzalez, but they didn't make the offer. If Gonzalez can get this kind of deal, Julio Lugo at four years and $32 million would look very attractive. Of course, if it's the White Sox that sign Gonzalez, the same teams that are considering Gonzalez right now would likely covet Juan Uribe. Uribe is about as good defensively and has more offensive potential. Should the Reds get Gonzalez, Brandon Phillips would stay at second base. It'd make the decision to re-sign Juan Castro look awfully redundant. Nov. 16 - 8:32 pm et

Yeah, he's slick with the glove...but c'mon. He has a career OBP of .292 and while he does have decent power that might play up well in GABP, he also has a 4:1 K/BB ratio throughout his career. Krivsky can lick my balls if the Reds actually offered this.

I don't know if it has been looked into yet, but I think pursuit of the D'Backs Alberto Callaspo would be a worthy endeavor. He plays 2B and SS with good defense at both, and - here's the thing that would probably make Krivsky want him - in his 2415 minor league ABs, he has struck out a grand total of 124 times. He's not he type of player who is going to ever hit more than 10 homers in a season, nor is he much of a basestealing threat, but he should be able to hit for a good average and he does have solid gap power. I'd compare him to Mark Loretta with the capability to hit for a bit better average and maybe more power. He's major league ready at 23 and has been fantastic the last two years in AAA for the Angels and D'Backs organizations. The best thing of all? The D'Backs would likely be willing to trade him because they have a total logjam in the middle infield. I don't know what it would take to get him, but he's a Krivsky-type player and I think he'd be able to put up a pretty decent OBP from the two spot in the lineup.