With the season opener less than a week away now and a tumultuous weekend behind us, I thought it may be good time to take a brief look back at the L'affaire Schoenert. As always, items here are based on a a good deal of information from OBD as well as my own opinion, and i will try and discern between the two for you.  

First---Although Schoenert's firing surprised me when announced it was inevitable based on all that I know now. There were simply vast philosophical differences between DJ and Turk, and rank insubordiantion surfaced as these differences began to manifest themselves daily in practice and throughout the preseason.  It was never ever that DJ wanted a less sophisticated offense, it was simply that he wanted "less."  Fewer plays--but designed to take advantage of our strengths, plays that could be practiced and perfected reptetitively, plays that Trent had confidence in, plays that would finally give us what we need desperately on offense--an identity. Throughout the Spring OTAs and Camp, DJ repeatedely told Turk to slim down the huge vuluminous playbook. Practice was altered to attempt to do this. They fooled with the 40 second clock to force the offense to use fewer plays.   Turk's response was essentially, "Yeah, yeah, we'll slim it down," but this never happened.  We never got around to perfecting execution, because Turk was insitent on trying everything in the kitchen sink. Trent was hopelessly lost in the lack of communication between DJ and Turk, and Finally, immediately following the Lion's game, DJ had had enough and they made the move. Could the timing have been better? OF COURSE. But in the end DJ delayed because he believed that Turk would come around---after all, he was Schoenert's most ardent supporter in advocating him for the OC job. It was DJ's idea to promote him--and that move, which may cost DJ his job in the end, is on him. But he acted decisively when it became apparent that throughout the entire offense--staff and players alike---that Schoenert had gone completely off the reservation.  To the best of my knowledge, no member of the offense, Trent or Evans ever went directly  to DJ about this as has been widely reported.

To me anyway, Schoenert's "Pop Warner" comments on DJ's offense made on the way out tells you a lot more about him  than DJ.   You may think that that DJ is a lousy head coach, bad game manager, etc., and I realize that many of you do--I disagree, but this is America and you have a right to your opinion. One fact is inarguable, however. DJ has developed a huge reputation of respect and integrtiy throughout  the NFL for more than 35 years as a player, position coach, coordinator and HC. As one NFL person told me this weekend, "if you can't bust your hump for Dick Jauron, then you can't work with anybody."

Such is the irony of life that Turk torched the guy responsible for him getting the job in the first place as he exited. Tells you a lot. 

I understand that the entire attitude at OBD has greatly improved in only three short days, as the simmering between coach and OC has vanished and AVP has assumed control. He is widely respected and liked, and his vision of the offense is consistent with DJs. Righ now, his biggest job is to restore some confidence in Trent--not to mention getting ready for the Pats. No small task.

There is no telling now how this will ultimately work out. Personally I feel like we are now playing a huge game of "catch-up" on offense and the abilities of DJ, AVP, and the entire offensive staff and obviously Trent will be put to the ultimate test.

I will try and post before the end of the week with some "informed thoughts" on the season ahead.

Well, it has been quite a long time since I have posted here--perhaps since the Draft. However, with the preseason underway, and the usual negativity pervading the Board,  I thought it may be a good time to offer some informed thoughts. I am recently returned from five days with the Bills. Three days of practice last week--inside the ropes--VERY up close and personal, followed by a trip to Canton where I watched the game last night.

My first question---in reading all of the fan posts here, I am curious. Why don't we just mail in a 6-10 season and forget about actually playing the games?  For what is worth, and I am NO homer, nor am I a polyanna, but I have a MUCH different outlook on the upcoming season than 95% of my fellow rumblers.   For any of you who have followed my rare posts here, you may disagree totally with any and all that I say, but need only trust that it comes from a love of the Bills coupled with some inside knowledge not usually bestowed on just a normal football-loving guy. Where do I start????

First---we are going to score points. Maybe a ton of them. It is the very RARE person here who is willing to give Schoenert/Jauron any kind of credit. for the creativity of going no-huddle 100% of the time. Now you may think this is some type of "gadget" or "gimmick" meant to trick defenses because we can't outplay them--but you would be 100% wrong. This decision came after a LOT of careful thinking and analysis--not the least of which was a rigorous analysis of our own talent.. There is much more to this than I have time for today--but I was chuckling last night watching the Houston corners playing 12 yards off of T.O. and Lee, the middle wide open and Trent throwing in ryhthm.   I am incredibly excited and you should be too.

Oh--yes, the O-Line. After some quick reading, I am in favor of waiving LeVitre. Whaddya say? I guess after one exhibition game, his career is like O-V-E-R. He sucks. Guess what? Good grief people. Get a grip. I like him a LOT. Not as much as the man love I have for Wood, but the kid is a tirless worker, is very smart, and has a LOT of talent. The O-Line is FAR from my biggest concern on this team.  When I left St. John Fisher, Butler was in VERY bad temper, trying to get back on the field as soon as he can--which will be this week I believe. Langston is absolutely a more than adequete LT, Hang is fine, and we just need some continuous reps, which will happen over the next 4 weeks.

I do believe that ultimately the season will reside in Trent's hands and I am very confident after watching him over the past week. He is confident, has been extremely accurate is has shown leadership qualities that i do not believe had existed before.

I could write endlessly about all that I have observed and more importantly learned over this past week, but I do not have the time or quite frankly the will. I will happily respond to questions or things on specific players you may be interested in--I suffer from no lack of opinion at all, but PLEASE people, lighten up. We are going to be good. YES--we do need a better pass rush for sure. I know this as does the team. Hopefully Maybin will get into Camp quickly and provide some threat off of the edge--but from what i hear, his agents are a bit odd, and this may take a bit more time.

As to the bona fides that allow me to speak as an informed insider--Brian will testify for me. He is aware of what i know and how I know it, but that is as far as it goes.

Now--let's get ready for Saturday. And please, try and be objective.

All Best,

Geronimo

I hope all of you folks had as much fun as I did today---it is always alternately fun, frustrating and ALWAYS interesting.   I had hoped to be able to post this morning once I had some insite into what our first day plans were, but alas, i was away from the PC most of the morning. I did, however, have the time to call Brian and give him a heads-up as to what may occur and hope that he passed it along. I have not had the time to go back over the hundreds and hundreds of posts to see if it made it.

First off---Maybin.  Excepting the slim possibility that Curry or the OT from Alabama would fall to us, they had been honing in on Maybin for quite awhile at 11, but keeping the interest pretty low-key. There was, as has been reported, a huge interest in Pettigrew as well and their first day goal was really to come out of the first day with both of them. Now truth be told, I was NOT a huge Maybin fan. I felt he was simply too small, could not hold up against the run and #11 was simply too high for a situational player. However, as somebody told me today, they view him as clearly the MOST significant potential difference-maker they could get their hands on. Somebody who could make plays. They very much liked Ayers, but didn't see that ability there at all. Same with Cushing and Matthews. OBD felt that their season essentially ended last year when Schobel went down and any ability to apply pressure with four people ended. Will Maybin work out? I do not know. But he clearly has the upside and was well worth it at #11. For all of you Ohers lovers---they liked him as a player but honestly viewed him as one of the "strangest" players who have ever interviewed at OBD and after that, they lost interest.

They tried MIGHTILY to move up from #28 and get Pettigrew. They felt they had to get to #19 ahead of Philly, Balt. and Detroit, but alas, folks were asking for a second rounder and they couldn't get it done.  I loved the guy. There was a school of thought at OBD that they should take him at #11 and hope that Maybin slid--but that was outvoted.

The second biggest objective for OBD today, was to change the composition and nature of the O-Line. I have posted here earlier that they would likely take 2-3 O-Lineman and they would not be "Dockery nice," but rather "Butler not nice." They had Wood, Unger and LeVitre ranked 1, 2, 3 out of all the interior lineman available. and when Wood was picked at #28, rest assured he is going to step in immediately at LG. The love LeVitre as well, and couln't resist the opportunity to move up and get him. Pencil him in as the starting RG--and Butler will go back to RT. Langston will play LT and Chambers/Bell will be our swing guys. In my mind--this restructuring is HUGE. Wood and LeVitre play to the whistle, are smart, tough and will hit you in the nose. I am encouraged.

Now I know that Jarious Byrd shocked all of you--and me as well, although his name was mentioned to me as somebody they liked a lot. I just wasn't paying appropriate attention. My bad. I wish I was. He is NOT going to play corner, but is ideally suited to Free Safety although as you know we use our two safeties almost interchangably. As was explained to me--OBD feels he has a better set of ball skills than almost enybody we have in the secondary, is a tough, hard, nosed run stuffer and can also cover, a neccessity for the Cover 2.  They view him as potentially better than Scott and much better than George Wilson. An upgrade.

I know some of you are disappointed that we didn't uprgade at SAM and at TE. I suppose I am as well to some degree, but simply put, we didn't the ammo to do it all.   The national media is trashing us for not getting a LT, but somebody at OBD told me tonight--do they really think there was a single tackle out there who will be better than Langston in 2009? Excepting Smith perhpas. I think OBD feels the same way about the OLBs and TEs available in the 2nd/3rd round. I am pretty sure they will try and add somebody at each position once we get back on the clock, but rather than attempt to make an incremental upgrade at a number of spots--they chose to really get after the O-Line, which I cannot blame them for.

I hope to get some more insite into who they will be looking at tomorrow and will share it if I can.

What i think we accomplished today? I think we added three smash mouth tough, good FOOTBALL PLAYERS where we needed them, and a potentially critical pass rusher. I heard one national guy compare Maybin to John Abraham. That would be nice.

That is it for tonite.

Like everybody here, I'm just counting down the days until the 25th to see how things are going to turn out.  I thought I'd share a bit of what I know as of a week before the draft, but would say at the outset, that as of this moment, this post wil contain FAR more speculation than hard "information." I will try and differentiate between the two when I can, so that you are totally free to draw your own conclusions.

First--I thought it may be helpful to do a brief overview of exactly how the Bills put their Board together--I think I did this last year as well, and I apologize if this is repetitive. First, as you all know, the whole process is somewhat circular and goes on year-round literally. For example, Bill's scouts will be attending College Spring Games and practices this weekend getting ready for the 2010 Draft. However, as a starting point, at the conclusion of the College Bowl season and then the Combine, every Bills Area scout puts a grade on all the draft-considered players in their geographic area. The scouts grades are then reevaluated by their national cross-checkers who work across the country and look for seeming aberrations or to provide a second pair of eyeballs. Now the grades get kicked up a bit. Tom Modrak grades everybody. The Bills position coaches grade only those players in their specific position and don't bother with tape of anybody else. Fewell and Turk grade all defensive/offensive players depending on position, and DJ, like Modrak grades everybody. The grades are all addded and averaged and voila--a consensus ranking is established. All "character" issues are built into the grade (points taken off depending on the degree of 'the issue.') by the way--so they are inherent in the final grade so as to avoid any "on-the-clock" wrangling about that. They're built in. They will actually give grades to about 100 more players than will actually be drafted---here's where the UFAs will be signed from.  There really isn't a lot of chit chat between the 32 teams as players are evluated and graded, but I do know for a fact that among the fraternity of assistant positional coaches they are always talking with each other---conversations like, "what did you have this guy at," simply as a means to double check their own sanity and make sure they haven't "fallen in love" with some bordeline player.

The Board is pretty much complete as we speak although there are always last-minute adjustments. On Thursday and Friday of this week, the entire organization will get together and will start playing "war games," e.g., 'what if scenarios. They do this for almost two full days, and in a typical year will go into the Draft feeling well prepared for virtually any scenario. In the War room will be DJ, Modrak, Brandon, Ralph, Fewell, John Guy and Turk. A smaller crowd than most teams.

HOWEVER, I have to tell you, this is NOT a typical year, by any stretch of the imagination. The entire Peters thing hangs over the organization and to say that things are fluid would be an understatement. As many others have accurately pointed out, he and his agent have put the Bills in a very bad predicament, and one which I KNOW OBD would like to resolve as quickly as possible. I do KNOW that talks with Det./Philly and others have been held--but would call them preliminary and no doubt things will heat up during the coming week. The same for Roscoe, although that is clearly less of a priority.

I can certainly say with a straight face that there is NOBODY right now who can predict with certainty what will happen next weekend. The folks at OBD can't. What if Peters is dealt? For what? What is he isn't? Same with Roscoe. I thought that MARVelous did a nice job in his recent Post about covering plausible "trade down" possibilities. There are more variables this year than in any other I can recall.

With all this said, let me make a few well, kind of predictions. I reserve the right to change my mind depending on new information as we get close to the 25th.

I will bet 90-10 that Peters will be dealt. The Bills are HUGELY motivated and may end up taking less than what we would like. His contract demands are high and the acquring team will have to consider that. BUT--we need definition on the LT situation and I am betting we get it by next Saturday evening.   I believe that at least right now, Det. is the most interested

I think Roscoe will be dealt. I have NO idea what his value is as a draft pick. This is MY opinion though and comes from nowhere else. I do KNOW that OBD and KC spoke over the Free Agency period. Let's not forget that Scott Pioli once sent a 2nd AND a 7th to the Dolfs for Wes Welker. He saw how important Welker was to Matt Cassell this past year. He is also very familiar with Roscoe, his athleticism and playmaking ability and may fancy him another Welker--which as a receiver he is nowehere near to. This year's draft is deep in the O-Line. If they want to send us an unhappy Waters for Roscoe--I am all over that.

Ok--the question everybody wants to know--who will we take? I really don't know because OBD does not really know at he moment. I hope to provide more intel later in the week based on more info, but here is what I would speculate on.  And yes, on an informed basis. Assuming that Andre Smith is not available (OBD doesn't think we should or will be) I believe that only three folks are being strongly considered. Robert Ayers, Pettigrew and Clay Matthews, Jr.   I have my own favorite as I'm sure you do. I'd be vey happy with one, happy with another and OK with the third. But let's leave that for the next post.

I think you'll see a minimum of two, but more likely three O-Lineman taken.  I believe that these will be a slight change in how they have traditional evaluated O-Lineman. Less emphasis on sheer size, and more on kiss-ass toughness and meanness.   They screwed up on Dock--and to this day aren't really sure why he digressed so terribly badly--but there is a school of thought that he was just too "nice,"  Butler, for example, is not "nice."

I have gone on far too long with limted information so I will stop.

All Best,

Geronimo

Hello Rumblers!  It is Sunday evening and I've just returned from four fun and action-filled days at Saint John Fisher College and Buffalo Bills training camp. I am tired but excited, and wanted to get this full report up for the group's information. As usual, I had a lot of unfettered access and if nothing else, the people who comprise OBD have again proven to be the classiest, and just plain nicest folks you could want to meet.

I know this report will not address everything and every player you want to know/hear about, but this does comprise the high spots at least in my estimation.

What am I totally jazzed about? The defense!!!!  I am stoked folks, and you should be too. In my opinion we are looking at a top ten defense.  Marcus Stroud looked immense in my time there - he has a first punch that is powerful, splits the double team like an All Pro and if we had done nothing else but add him in the off-season, we would be hugely improved. I saw nobody block him 1-1, and this is NOT a knock on our O-Line. Can he keep it up? I think the simple key here is to carefully gauge his snaps and run our four man rotation regularly. If he remains healthy and fresh, he will make a BIG difference. Paul Posluszny looked terrific and bigger than I recall. Donte Whitner has stepped it up big-time - he is everywhere, and has assumed the role of a vocal leader. Love it!! 

By far the biggest surprise to me was Kawika Mitchell. I had seen him play many times, but was not ready for exactly how steady he is, how sturdy at the point of attack he is, and what a great leader he is. He is NOT a loud rah-rah guy, but in my estimation he has already become the leader of the defense. He and Poz are inseparable and he is constantly patting backs, softly critiquing and just flat out hustling. They call it leading by example. What a great signing.

In the backfield, I thought Ko Simpson looked fine and with his greater foot speed and range should hold off the heady George Wilson for the FS job.  I know everybody is thinking about LCB as am I. During my time there, Jabari Greer took all the #1 unit snaps and Will James was the starting nickel. Now I am on the record as believing that Greer's year last year was overrated, and that we somehow mistook hustle and guts for production. I believed that he is simply too small to line up on the outside.  I may be wrong. He is so quick. He has such an outstanding break to the ball that it may compensate for the lack of size against all but the biggest receivers. Time will tell - and I still will bet that at some point this year Leodis McKelvin will challenge there. I am not a huge James fan, and think that Leodis has a very strong chance to win the nickel job outright before the season starts. I watched him a lot. What is interesting, at least to me, is that he is much better in team drills (7-7, 11-11) than in individual drills. That tells me that he is hugely instinctual and athletic, but his technique needs a lot of work. I saw DB coach George Catavalos spend oodles of time with him (let's not forget it was his first week in camp) as well as with Reggie Corner. Corner was not nearly as quick as I thought he would be, but he makes plays. Just a football player. I like him. It is just so hard at this point to figure where Youboty fits - I think the coaches are pleased with him, but I am not sure how much.

In other areas of the D, Spencer Johnson pulled off a rare "hat-trick" on Saturday morning, consecutively beating Fowler, Butler and Chambers in 1-1 drills sending Stroud into fits of apoplexy. I do not believe that the coaches feel he can play 50 snaps a game, but he can be a very valuable role guy. I have no idea if he will make the team, but Marcus Buggs hits you coming off the bus, and hustles his butt off. Aaron Schobel was not there this week, and honestly Chris Ellis did not stick out in any way.  If you are worried about special teams with all of the departures, you can feel a lot better knowing that John DiGiorgio and Keith Ellison will be back on teams full-time. Along with John Wendling, Bryan Scott and some of the new guys, I would not lose any sleep on this. 

Offensively: honestly, I am concerned and it it all goes back to one thing. Jason Peters. Had he been with the team throughout the OTAs, minicamp and preseason, my optimism would be off the map. But he has not and Lord knows when or if he will come back. My latest sense is that this is NOT the agent's doing....he is not "holding" Peters out, but rather it is simply something the player is doing, for whatever the reason on his own. The feeling is that even if he were to come back on the eve of the season and in shape (a big assumption), he could not contribute immediately. Every single line call has changed under Turk Schonert as have many of the blocking schemes with Sean Kugler taking over as O-Line coach from Mouse McNally. There will be a HUGE mental adjustment for Peters to be able to play. I thought Langston Walker played well at RT last year, but can he play LT? I am not sure in the least. I do not understand why some people think Kirk Chambers is a possible cut. I saw nothing that would indicate that - but will tell you that Demitrius Bell is going to be a player in the league, just not this year. He is agile, hostile and hard-working, but incredibly weak in the upper body.  Matt Murphy is also a hard worker, but I just can't see him starting, at least at the outset of the season. I hope whatever is in Peters' head disappears. He is desperately needed.

On the plus side offensively, Marshawn Lynch looked fabulous as did Freddie Jackson. Trent looks a lot bigger and more confident. I saw a LOT of formations where Lynch and/or Jackson went in motion and lined up wide - this may well be how Turk intends on attacking the safety to keep Lee Evans in single coverage. I like that. Lee looks great and I was highly impressed by Stevie Jackson!  He can run, catch and leap. If he can find a way to contribute to special teams, he may make it to the game day 45 and surprise us. The biggest disappointment in my time there was that James Hardy did not participate in team drills at all and I have nothing to evaluate him on. I do think that the coaches like his work ethic, and attention to detail. They have high hopes as do we, but I think his time, at least until he earns more, will be situational.

I defy any of you to tell the difference between Derek Schouman and Derek Fine. They are look-alikes who both block and are sure-handed. Fine is a bit bigger I thought, but they caught everything thrown at them while I was there. Yes, I know - they are not Antonio Gates getting down the field - but we could do worse.

I have no idea what to make of the 3rd RB duel between Dwayne Wright and Xavier Omon. I was disappointed in the way both of them ran. They seemed to be thinking far too much, and simply not squaring their shoulders and getting down the field. In one blitz pick up drill I watched closely, Wright simply "fanned" on three straight blitzes by a lone rusher.  Exit Trent in a real game.  By the way, Marshawn and Jackson are both outstanding blitz blockers.

I will answer questions if you have them, but I have droned on long enough. One final point - and this was as interesting to me as anything else I saw while at St. John Fisher - the elapsed time between rookie LB Bowen going down and the signing of of Donnie Spragan (nice pick-up) was just a few hours. They had his agent on the phone while Bowen was still on campus and not the hospital. This really impressed me. Excellent teamwork and preparation by John Guy, Dick Jauron, Jim Overdorf and Russ Brandon.   Just something to noodle over. They got him while he was on his way to Foxboro to visit the Pats - never a bad thing!

I thought I'd take the opportunity to share some feedback on Rookie Camp from those in a better position to observe than I.  As always, consider this informed opinion, so take it for what it is worth--I was certainly not there. Also, please remember that the rookies were in shorts and tees, not exactly how they're going to line-up against Seattle in September.

I think there is a tendency among very close observers of the game to be disappointed when they first see the rookies up close. They have scouted them ad nauseum, been enthusiastic about drafting them and see a lot of potential. Then, as people with decades in the NFL, they see chinks and problems under close-up first-hand scrutiny. Last year I recall that when the staff first saw Marshawn Lynch and Paul Posluszny, they were struck by how much better they actually were than on tape. They are equally enthusiastic about this year's class--although sadly my report will only deal with a few of them.

Leodis McKelvin definitely impressed with his natural athletic ability, ball instincts and sheer explosiveness. OBD believes that he just loves playing football, a theme that ran throughout all of the draftees. Knowing their draft philosophy, this came as no surprise.  James Hardy made an equally big impression with his hands, size and route-running. I heard comments that lead me to believe that he can step right in and contribute beyond what the experts believe is "normal" for a first-year wideout. I also heard comments that indicate that it depends on how they use him in the offense. I am very curious about this, but for the time being, it will have to remain a curiosity. Chris Ellis apparently exhibited the very quick first step we have all read about, and while they consider him raw in the technique sense, they were excited about the possibilities of him playing in the DE rotation, but likely only as a situational pass rusher initially. He will get a lot of teaching attention in camp. They are high on both Reggie Corner and Derek Fine. Corner apparently is just a natural ballhawk, is smart, uses his instincts well, and although he is clearly small, he's a natural nickel back. Fine they like a lot.  No one single thing he does jumps out at you, but it's more the collective package. Very smart, very tough, can catch it, and loves to block. Just a "football player" is the report.

I can say that the optimism at OBD is very high. As high as I have ever heard it. They truly feel that with what they did in free agency, all the injured guys coming back healthy, the addition of this rookie class and some key changes on the coaching staff, they can line up and play with anybody. Much will depend on good health and Trent Edwards to be sure--but they are very excited.

I do hope to have a report following the first full-team workouts scheduled for the 16th-18th.

Just reading all that has been written over the evening and this morning, it seems that a majority of Bills fans are disappointed with the Draft--most particularly the second day proceedings. That is certainly NOT the view at OBD. Let's review the last 48 hours from the OBD perspective. Going into the Draft the team's three biggest needs (as they saw it) were CB, WR and a 4th DE in the rotation with some pass rush ability. Check. Check and Check. They covered all three in the first three picks and I will not spend much time reviewing McKelvin, Hardy and Ellis. They are VERY high on Ellis as a situational player--they think he has innate pass rush abilities that are very hard to teach and whatever attitude problems exists will be quickly gone after a few days around Kollar and Schobel. Let's take a better look at the fourth round guys--where most of the disappointment exists I sense.

The Bills looked at Corner totally prepared NOT to like him. All off-season they have gotten bigger and they were ready to readily dismiss him on size alone. Then they saw him on tape and were really dazzled. They view him as an outstanding cover guy--quick, smart, makes plays and VERY tough.  They love him. If he were two inches taller they think he'd have been a low first, high second pick.  They think he will push Greer for the nickel and may win it outright. The Fine situation is interesting. Most Bills fans wanted an up-the-field TE--somebody who could threaten the deep middle. That is NOT what the Bills were seeking after Keller and Davis were off the Board. They think that C. Anderson and Teyo have as much ability to do this as anybody they could possibly have drafted, and they were looking for a tough, smart, hard-nosed blocker who could also catch a bit to line up opposite Royal on short yardage and goal line. They think Fine is a very good player--and he is really going to push Schouman. They want competition at every position, remember.

Bowen? Tough as nails and solid tackler/player with athletic ability is the view at OBD and he is going to be a special teams demon. You all MUST remember that we have lost Stamer, Haggan, Wire and Aiken off of teams. That is a LOT of productivity and in an area that the Bills take incredibly seriously. They also want to push Ellison and think that Bowen--who is a tireless worker will do that. We also really needed depth at LB after Digi and Ellison. 

Omon---they were thinking of a smaller RB at this point but opted for this kid because he is hard, nosed, tough and moves the pile. Freddy Jackson is our situational guy and nobody they could have gotten here would have been better than him. In addition--they really want Wright to work harder and think this kid will help them see exactly what they have in Wright. Or don't have.  Why a RB at all?? We only really have our top three--and we wanted and needed some depth.

The tackle Bell? A total and complete project likely two years away--but they see quick feet, bad technique that can be changed, good possibilities and a very hard worker. Only time will tell.

They LOVE the WR Johnson and think he was a real value. They do not think he does any one thing exceptionally well--but everything pretty well. He has size, decent speed and catches most everything. Apparently there are "issues" with him--but certainly worth a 7th rounder.   They do think if he works out he can and will play.

Cox---Just a "height, wight, speed" guy worth a flier. They love using CBs on teams and will likely carry 6 on the 53 man roster.

I know you are all asking where is the Fullback? They were looking, but just never ran into the right situation at the right time. They have one on the roster and just signed the UFA from Army. 

All in all they are very pleased. I am. The whole thing is a crap shoot as you all know well, but it does make me feel better knowing that there is always a rationale for everything at OBD.

Well--THE day has arrived. All the tape has been watched, interviews conducted and finally, all the speculation and rumours will be put to bed and reality will rule.  Like all of you, I will be a close observer and am intensely curious as to how it all will turn out. I have a few thoughts as to what may happen over the next few days based on some informed speculation and will share with you what I am able here as the draft is about to begin. A couple things first--I have a very high degree of confidence in both Tom Modrak and Dick Jauron, and make no mistake about about it--despite Russ Brandon's public visibility, it will be Modrak and Jauron who will make the final calls today and tomorrow. They are philosophically in-tune and extremely good talent evaluators.  I trust them and you should too. 

The Bills Board was finished and polished up on Wednesday and the last two days at OBD have been spent playing "War Games." Going through scenario after scenario. A complete and comprehensive  review of every "what if" possibility. Who will likely be selected ahead of them--what if there are surprises. Trade down possibilities, trade up possibilities. Who would be the likely trade partners. All of it. No stone left unturned.  There are FAR more players on the Bills Board than will be drafted. Watch for the scurry to sign UFAs right after the draft.

Yestersday, the Bills spoke with almost every team in the league. If they didn't hear from them--they called. As of this moment, the best trade-down scenario is with the Chiefs, coming up from  #17. The Eagles coming up are also a possibility.   We will see if these talks amount to anything. So much depends on what happens in the top tem--particularly with the Chiefs.  There will be surprises as always.

So--let's begin. I should say that I will NOT be editorializing on any of the following. That will come post-draft.   Barring any last minute changes in the "assumed" top ten, and assuming a tad of good luck,  if he is there (I thnk this is 40-60 against happening) and we do not trade out--I strongly strongly believe that Leodis McKelvin will be the pick at #11. He is highly rated, the Bills think he is a complete CB who can play from day one and he fills a need position.

If McKelvin is gone--the Bills will strongly consider (if available of course) WR  Thomas, Rodgers-Cromartie, Derrick Harvey, and Keith Rivers. The latter may surprise you, but the Bills think he is an outstanding prospect and could make an immediate contribution. How and why they think that will have to wait for another day. DRC is viewed as the second best CB--not great against the run--but with  truly outstanding ball skills and great athleticism. All the plusses and issues with Thomas have been debated ad nausuem--so I will not review them here. He is obviously liked at OBD. By far (to me anyway) the most interesting selection would be Harvey and he would be strongly considered. In the end the pick will be Thomas. Bank on it.

Obviously the rest of our draft will depend on what happens at #11. OBD is well aware of the need to surround Trent Edwards with weapons. They believe that TEs Keller and Davis can step right in, play and contribute. Carlson from ND to a lesser extent.  Martellus Bennett and Finley are viewed as talented, interesting and intruguing--but raw and more project types.

Not surprisingly the WR wish list after Thomas includes Kelley, Hardy, Sweed (they have warmed up to him a bit) and Jordy Nelson. In Rosco we already have the grown-up DeSean Jackson.  Of this group and the TEs --who has the potential to drop to us in the second round if we go Defense at #11? Hard to say--but OBD's interest in all that Nelson could bring to the table transcends the single knock against him--that he'd struggle making the transition from slot to wide-out. The Bills think he would have no problem. OBD doesn't really care about Kelley's 40 time...or his post workout tantrum. They are far more concerned with his knees. The character issues with Hardy are a non-issue with them.  San Diego at #26, but no #2,3 or #4 I beleive really would like to move down for more picks. Could we move up to land of these WRs or TEs if we like him enough and it looks like nobody will make it to us in round #2?  Possibly.    Note to the friends and family of Adarius Bowman. Your boy's dope-smoking and other evil ways cost him a LOT of money.  I mean a LOT. I know one team in Western NY, who positively loved you on tape.  OBD sees Manningham as a 4th-5th round guy.

There is much more to talk about but little or no time or room left. CB Flowers is well thought of as is Cason.  They wish he played tougher though. Jenkins is not all that well thought of.

I have NO doubt that we will see a surprise or two from OBD in the next 48 hours. One of things I like about them is that they totally resist the herd mentality of the League and actually have the courage of their convictions.

Should be fun!!!  More after the Draft!!!

[editor's note, by Brian Galliford] Geronimo, resident Buffalo Rumblings insider and one of our more tenured posters, kindly offers us his latest opinions and insight as we draw closer to Draft Day. Take it away, G. End Note

Well, there are about two-plus weeks before the NFL Draft and like everybody I am anxious/curious to see how the whole thing turns out. I have not posted here for quite a while and thought it may be useful to prattle on with a few thoughts as to what may be going on at One Bills Drive. Much of this is informed opinion as always - some my own perception.

First, you should all know that there are really only two opinions that will matter on Draft Day. Opinions will have been sought and offered by all of the Bills' scouts, position coaches, and Perry Fewell and Turk Schonert - and they will all have been listened to carefully. But at the end of the day Tom Modrak and Dick Jauron will make every single call. It may surprise you that this is no different than in the past two drafts when Marv Levy was here. Marv had his own opinions, he clearly expressed them and they were valued - but he was NOT doing the picking. He was highly deferential to both Modrak and DJ, and at the end of the day, he treated them much as he would have liked to be treated as a coach when Bill Polian and John Butler were GM. Besides, he and DJ were so philosophically in tune it virtually made no difference.

Modrak and DJ have a superb working relationship. There is a great deal of trust and respect there. MOST importantly, Modrak knows exactly what "type" of player DJ wants - and I am NOT just talking about the character criteria. Modrak knows what skill sets the coaches value at the positional level and will look for guys who may be better here than they would be elsewhere and rank them accordingly. DJ has a lot of confidence in him and it is a good team. Two years' history would tell you that they have a good model for success figured out. If they see a "guy" they like and who really believe in they will go for him. They started calling around looking to move up to get Paul Posluszny exactly one second after they picked Marshawn Lynch last year.

In addition, the Bills could not care less what you think or I think and that goes double for Kiper, Mayock et al. I can quite positively assure you that if Michael Huff had fallen to them in 2006, they still would have taken Donte Whitner. Their only decision at that point was between Donte and Haloti Ngata. Time will tell but I am happy with how that has turned out. You will all recall how they were castigated by the experts in that draft. Imagine the furor if they had passed on Huff, who is now being shopped by the Raiders.

Another thing - if they think the Board is not going their way, they may reach just a tad for need. The trade up to get John McCargo in 2006 is a good case in point. It was likewise controversial. At that point, OBD desperately needed a DT. Now not only do they have a "Master Board" with all players available, they have a positional Board for every position. They saw that McCargo, who they had as a low first/top second guy, was at least two rounds better ranked than the next DT. Were they right? Well, it took an amazing 42 more picks before the next DT (Claude Wroten) was selected, so they had that nailed. Was McCargo worth it? Throw out the injured first year, but we saw glimpses last year of how quick and disruptive he can be. With Marcus Stroud here I expect to see really, really nice things from him this year.

The front office loves FOOTBALL players. I can tell you that their draft grades are based 90% on college production. They do not put much weight at all in the combine or pro days. It is all about what you see on tape. The game is played in pads and that is what they value.

What does all of this mean in terms of the Draft? I will post closer to the draft with some thoughts, but would it surprise you to know that tough guys like CB Brandon Flowers and TE John Carlson may have a higher spot at OBD than elsewhere?

I am really pumped about this year's draft, and highly confident in the team running it.

I wrote here on Sunday following the Stroud deal that the Bills mgmt. team had acted adroitly following the collape of a deal they thought was "done" literally on the eve of free Agency last Thursday nite at midnite. Mnay of you asked what it was, but I could not say.

Now for the details following today's announcement that the Browns have re-done Shaun Roger's contract to a staggering 6 years--$42M with a $20M guarantee. Unbelievable amount of money for a guy with his issues.

You can guess the rest. Yes indeed--we had a deal in place for Rogers for the same 3rd and 5th we eventually sent to Jax for Stroud. We agreed. The Lions agreed. Rogers was on board. But Voila!!! In steps Roger's agent at 11:58PM and tells us that he is not going anywhere unless he does his deal over. To make a long story short--the numbers got out of hand quickly and our guys did not like the last minute extortion.

Within one hour we are on the phone to both Jax and Stroud's agent. He is at OBD on Saturday and the rest is history.

I think this may give you some insite as to how prepared the guys at OBD are--and how quickly they are prepared to move.

In my opinion only--we got FAR the better of the deal as opposed to what the Browns eventually paid.