If I were to make a stat to capture what is meant by "clutch hitting", I would combine some of the following:

• BA with RISP, and with less than 2 outs, combined with some measure of slugging / total bases
  
• game-winning RBIs
• pinch-hitting, maybe?
• BA in last 3 innings, score diff 4 runs or less (4 because that is the possible change with one swing and bases loaded)
• hitting versus division rivals
• all of the above, in games that "matter": playoffs, playoff race.

Reggie Jackson was called Mr. October for a reason, and Dave Winfield Mr. May: because they were perceived by Steinbrenner as possessing "clutch", and not. Has there been a stat comparison of these two, both excellent hitters, which could show a difference in performance, esp. in "big games"?

is that element, performing in the "big game", one reason why clutch stats elude? That is, in the effort to expand the stat sample size, less important games are lumped in with the more important ones, and thus the factor is canceled out?

This being a stats-loving site, let the fireworks begin...

Remember last week we were talking about Hill having zero trade value?

In 7 games, Hill hitting .333, OBP of 400, and playing every game as a starter, and D-Backs are on an 8-game winning streak. Looks like the desert air appeals to him - as I suspected a change to the NL would have. Why did I think so? Same thing happened to Rivera in LA (htting 300, with almost as many RBIs in half the games). Johnson is not panning out. Looks like Hech should be getting a shot next year.

I am not happy with the current state of the games. If we are in for another rebuilding year in 2012, then my interest will decrease. Willing to do that for 2 years, but not 3. We don't have to win 95 games on the year, BTW, if we can at least split our games with the Rays, Yanks and Bosox. If all those teams cancel each other out by playing 500 (and play 550 to 600 against everybody else on average), I am guessing we are looking at 90 wins to make the wild card. Tor vs TB = 5W10L; vs Bos = 4W8L; vs NY = 5W7L. We need to start winning more games against our division.

Yeah, yeah, prospects, patience, and the next minute you are looking at 2015 and we are still on the outside looking in. I want to see progress in 2012, and that means at least be in a legitimate race for a wildcard in September next year.

How much better would our record have been, if we had had a reliable bullpen? The days of Ward and Henke seem so long ago.

/end rant

Curious to know what you folks think about the possibility of acquiring Garza from the Cubs? He seems to have a pretty good contract (about 6 mill this year), has great numbers this year but some bad luck (so his 5-9 WL record). Cubs could use some better defence and more hitting. Would they be takers for Hill, who still have pretty good power, which may improve in the NL? Could we part ways with Snider, or Loewen? Do we make a jump and give up JPA, clearing the way for D'Arnaud? JPA looks better than their guy right now, and Hill's power numbers are better than their 2B. It does beg the question of finding our own 2B; maybe the Cubbies want to send back theirs in the deal (Barney, who has a better OBP than Hill's).

Garza has a proven track record in the AL East. A lineup of Romero-Garza-Morrow- plus 2 of the wannabes (McGowan, Litsch, Drabek, CV, McGuire) would look pretty good.

Could AA make this happen?

There are no more teams for him to coach in the NBA, just checks to cash. When the phone rings in Montana, Phil Jackson ought to let it go to voice mail and cast another line into a stream.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=aw-wojnarowski_phil_jackson_career_ends_lakers_mavericks_050811

You know, the Raps have not had an experienced coach in ages. They keep experimenting with rookies (Triano, Mr. Shats), and we have been aching for a coach who could mould this team into one that actually had an identity. You could never tell what Raps team would show up one night to the next.

I wonder if Jackson could do something for the Raps? Could he motivate Bargnani (he did a pretty good job with Bynum)? The Raps are hard working, and have some players with good IQ - would this work, you think? Would Jackson consider it?

Encarnacion's fielding is an issue that has dogged the Dominican Republic native throughout his career. Encarnacion has 107 errors in his six years as a Major Leaguer and has already committed four through just five games in the field this year.

Farrell believes the latest move allows his club to put its best overall configuration on the field. Jayson Nix, who entered Wednesday hitting .240 with six walks over his past eight games, will now receive most of the starts at third base.

http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110420&content_id=18044764&notebook_id=18049058&vkey=notebook_tor&c_id=tor

Sorry, but I would rather see Lawrie out there at third. The initial reason I thought was that, to justify EE's salary, they needed to play him at third. Rivera would DH. Well, Rivera is not exactly inspiring. Lawrie kid is hitting .450 plus at AAA, showed he could swing the bat in spring training, and must be wondering what else he has to do to get called up?

How long do you think it will be before Lawrie gets the callup? May, June, July...

On http://www.sportscity.com/MLB/Toronto-Blue-Jays-Salaries, they list Toronto's salary at $70,567,800. I added it up roughly and it comes to about 53 million. Anyone have an updated version? Are there hidden contract obligations that put the amount up that high? It looks Toronto is around 22nd highest out of the 30 teams, but I wonder if the amount is lower. Why, because I am wondering how much we might have to spend if we went after a great FA, like Pujols or Fielder, to put us over the top in 2012.

• RHP Frank Francisco (tightness in right pectoral muscle) went on the 15-day disabled list retroactive to March 22. He is scheduled to begin a rehab assignment April 7 with Class A Dunedin.

• RHP Octavio Dotel (strained left hamstring) was hurt March 8, and he went on the 15-day disabled list retroactive to March 22. He was rehabbing at the team’s Florida facility as of April 5, and he could be activated by mid-April.

With Francisco coming off the DL, along with Dotel, Reyes out of options, and Morrow to take his place in 2 games or so, I wonder if its Cecil that gets sent down, if he has another rough outing?

How do you guys think the bullpen personnel will work out?

AA said this:

"Not that I want to compare Edwin to Jose Bautista, but I do think (Encarnacion) is going to have a breakout year for us. I will not be surprised to see him hit 30 home runs or more. If he can get 500-600 plate appearances, he could have a very good year swinging the bat."

Seems like all the news is good out of spring training, but one name that I have not heard is Encarnacion's. Is he the best option for us at DH? If Lawrie breaks camp, does that shake things up for the DH role too? Or will EE come around, and reach AA's expectations?

Thoughts?

haven’t seen any poster say this in so many words…

is it just a coincidence that our new coach used to be the pitching coach for Sox, and now, more than in any other year I can remember, we are stockpiling relievers? Perhaps AA is doing a lot more consulting with coach than we are assuming (ie “AA is god” seems to be the consensus, yet the idea might very well have originated in consultation with Farrell)?

Is Farrell going to be much more active with pitching, use match-ups and stats to exploit game-time situations, more than we have seen with Jays coaches of the past?

I am sure that AA and coach know our batting against LHP, and how we had no interest in Manny and traded Napoli. Yet this guy was traded for relievers, and we paid out for relievers than for a hitter.

Postings seem to be focused on the draft picks these trades confer, yet I wonder if this year the actual usage of pitching in the game might be something different than what we Jays’ fans have become used to seeing: winning with more emphasis on game-time pitching management, less so on winning by the big HR shot.

Does that make any sense? What say you?