It's a sentiment that's been bubbling around for a while now, but with his recent struggles and the Giants sudden turn for the miserly, it's likely one that will come to a boil. You'll see it in Internet comments, callers to KNBR, and all over the twitters: the idea that Barry Zito should do the "right thing" and just retire, forsaking the rest of his contract.

I saw the thought articulated by wonderful Giants blogger Wendy Thurm (@hangingsliders), who stated thusly:

Maybe Gil Meche can have a good long talk with Zito. Seriously. Sometimes the right thing to do is just walk away.

I, however, couldn't disagree more. Barry Zito should absolutely not retire. Because the Giants don't deserve to be bailed out of his contract.

Contracts in Baseball are, as we all know, guaranteed. That's awesome. It forces teams to do far more extensive risk evaluation than in other sports, and it forces accountability on organizations that fail to do their due diligence. That's what happened here. Barry Zito has earned every single penny of that money, because he earned it the day he signed the contract (note, of course, that he hasn't been WORTH the money, but he has earned it.)

Barry Zito's contract is not Barry Zito's fault, and the notion that he should retire and save the team some money is backwards and would result in a perverse incentive, where the party whose fault the contract isn't loses out on millions while the party whose fault the contract is reaps rewards.

So stay strong Barry. Please don't retire. Don't give them the satisfaction. Make them learn their damn lesson with every terrible inning. They deserve it.

********* ATTENTION *************

I HAVE NOW RECEIVED ENOUGH SUBMISSIONS TO FILL THE LEAGUE. IF YOU WOULD LIKE TO BE CONSIDERED, YOU MAY SEND IN AN EMAIL AND I WILL PLACE YOU ON THE WAITING LIST IN CASE SOMEONE DROPS.

********** END ATTENTION ***********

Welcome to the official organizing thread for the first (?) ever McC fantasy league played for cold, hard cash. I am embarking on this endeavor to attempt to create a more intense, passionate fantasy league, one motivated not only by passion and pride, but that greatest of motivators, cash money money.

I'm sure this will not be a particularly pleasant herd of cats to corral, but I'm nonetheless going to attempt to organize this thing. If you would like to participate, please read the following very, very carefully. I will attempt to answer all questions here. At the end of this post will be the information for signing up. If you could, please rec this post so that it'll stay up long enough to attract interest.

POINT THE FIRST: The entrance fee for this league shall be $40. This seems to balance the desires of those who would like to play for a significant sum with those who are looking for something more affordable. I understand that there are some people who will be priced out at this level. I apologize for that.

POINT THE SECOND: The payments for this league shall be administered by the fantasy league payment company Leaguesafe. Please go to their website and read all about them and all their processes. The payment for this league will be done via "e-check", which requires that you give your checking account number to Leaguesafe, which then withdraws the funds. There is an option to pay with a credit card, but if I enable that option for the league, there is a 3% skim off all donations. We will, therefore, be using the "e-check" option. I have done this before with Leaguesafe, as have many of my friends, and have had no problems and enjoyed using their service. I've yet to see complaints anywhere about this company, and I'm happy to use them again. Using this service prevents you from having to trust me with your money, which makes the whole thing better for everyone.

POINT THE THIRD: The winnings of the league shall be distributed thusly: Third place shall receive 40$. Second place shall receive 80$. First place shall receive the rest of the money, which will depend on how many people sign up for the league. Note: If 8 or fewer people sign up, we may eliminate the third place prize.

POINT THE FOURTH: This will be a head-to-head league with a snake (non-auction) draft. This league will be played on Yahoo fantasy baseball, the playform with which I have had the most enjoyment.This league will allow drafting of players in both leagues.

POINT THE FIFTH: The scoring categories will be the standard 5x5, with just three minor adjustments. We will use OBP instead of AVG, Net Saves instead of Saves, and Net Stolen Bases instead of Stolen Bases. Therefore, the 10 scoring categories will be: OBP, HR, RBI, NSB, Runs, Wins, Strikeouts, ERA, NS, WHIP.

************

Holy shit, you read all that and you still want to play in this league? Awesome.

Here's what you have to do: Send an email to mccfantasy@gmail.com.

In this email should be: Your name, your MCC username (with a link to your profile, if you could), and a statement that you're interested in playing in this league and willing to pay $40 through the Leaguesafe service. I'd also like you to include which day of the week/time of day would generally work best for you to participate in the draft (i.e. Saturday afternoons).

I will be reviewing these emails. If there are more people interested than we have room for, preference will be given to more established MCC regulars, people who have been on the site longer, have more comments, etc, but newer members should be free to sign up too.

Within a week or two, I will be sending out invitations to the people who have registered who the league has room for. I'm not sure how many people will be interested, so the league could be anywhere from 8 to 16 people. If I get less than 8 people interested, we'll call this off.

I know there will soon be a deluge of threads about MCC fantasy baseball, but I wanted to toss a quick question out there: Is anyone willing to play in an MCC league for money? I know in the past there have been a lot of leagues out there just for bragging rights and fun, but I tend to find that involving money makes people a little bit more dedicated.

There's an online league payment system called Leaguesafe that I used last year and liked and is well-reviewed and trusted (http://leaguesafe.com/) that could be used to collect and distribute the money.

If you don't like to pay money for fantasy baseball, I get that. I'll probably be participating in at least one MCC free league anyway.

But if you're willing to put up $ for an MCC fantasy league, I'd just ask that you'd participate in the poll so I can gauge amounts:

Pessimism, as I've come to comprehend, isn't a particularly popular sentiment. Especially in sports, which we rely on to provide us with optimism, hope, and entertainment, it isn't very fulfilling to believe that our beloved team might not be very good.

This is how I feel. I shall attempt to enumerate the reasoning behind that sentiment.

The Offense

The commonly acknowledged problem. But I would argue that the traditional reasons for doubting our offensive output - the awful shortstop, the questionable first baseman, etc - miss the broader point.

The Giants opening day lineup will look something like this:

Pagan CF/Sanchez 2B/Sandoval 3B/Posey C/Cabrera RF/Belt LF (Or, alternatively, Cabrera in LF and Schierholtz in RF)/Huff 1B/Crawford SS

Now, consider:

The number of players in that lineup who have amassed two full above-average seasons in a row recently is 0. Zero.

If consistency is the holy grail of roster construction, the Giants proposed lineup looks like a sippy cup in comparison. The simple fact is that none of the players that the Giants are counting on to provide offensive upgrades have shown that they can be counted on. But, hey, we'll go ahead and count on them anyway.

I'll delve further into the two most-discussed players in the Giants offseason - Buster Posey and Freddy Sanchez.

Posey is the wild card, but rather than treat him like a wild card, the Giants are choosing to bank on him returning as a major offensive upgrade. He is the "free agent" that the Giants didn't sign. The Giants are counting on Posey to return the cleanup-hitting catcher they've seen for the past year.

In searching for a recent Posey comparison, I decided the example of Jason Kendall made sense. Kendall was an offensive standout at catcher who suffered an ankle injury that took him out for almost a full season in 1999. Of course, Kendall's injury wasn't quite as bad as Posey's, but it fits the general idea.

In his career leading up to his injury, Kendall was a .312/.399/.451 hitter - phenomenal for a catcher. Now, the year he came back from his injury, Kendall was actually still quite good, putting up a .320/.412/.470 line. But after that 2000 season, Kendall put up poorer numbers. In the three years after his injury, Kendall managed a .298/.366/.395 line, which, while good, pales in comparison to his earlier work.

None of this is to say that Posey will follow Kendall's path exactly. He could be better, or he could be worse. But the aging curve for catchers in general peaks much earlier than other position players - whereas an infielder or outfielder would tend to peak at around age 27, consensus is that peak catcher age is somewhere a few years earlier, perhaps 24 or 25. Kendall was injured when he was 25, and he was never again as good as he was. Posey was injured when he was 24. Will he ever again be as good as he was?

Maybe. Maybe not. It's a foolish thing to count on. But, then again, the Giants are counting on so many inconsistent players, what could one more hurt?

Sanchez I'll spend less time on, because the idea of Freddy Sanchez being some sort of offensive savior now that he's not injured is ludicrous on its face. Mostly, of course, because Freddy Sanchez wasn't an offensive savior even before he got injured. Over the past three years, Sanchez has been the epitome of average - posting exactly a 100 OPS+. Going in to 2012, he's a year older, a year further into his decline, and coming off a major injury. Sanchez shouldn't even be counted on to be an average hitter or play 100 games, but the Giants are hoping like hell he'll do both.

The Pitching

This is the aspect people fall back on. "Sure", they'll say, "the offense might not be great. But the pitching will carry us!"

It may, however, be time to consider whether or not the pitching can be counted on.

First of all, the elephant in the room: injuries. When was the last time the Giants endured a pitching injury that substantially hurt the team. One could argue Jonathan Sanchez last year, perhaps, but Sanchez wasn't pitching that well even before he was injured. Reality is, the Giants have suffered almost no significant injuries to their starting pitching staff, despite the fact that pitchers on the whole spend more time on the DL than any other player.

Now, of course, this does not mean that the Giants are any more likely to experience a pitcher injury than they ever were. That is the gambler's fallacy. But it's still something that might happen, and the Giants, whose starting pitching depth in the minor consists of Eric Surkamp, are ill prepared to deal with it.

The second point to consider is whether the pitching can be counted on to be as good. Research indicates that pitchers generally peak around 26-27 and decline from there. In the words of Tom Tango:

So, it’s clear enough: age 27 IS the peak age for pitchers.

Cain will be that peak age this year. Lincecum will be past his peak age, and his year-to-year FIPs (2.34-->3.15-->3.17) paint the picture of a pitcher already declining, albeit slowly and from a high peak.

The only pitcher one could reasonably hope to take a significant step forward is Bumgarner, whose unique combination of talent and youth makes him a true gem and treasure of this team.

Vogelsong has a decade of data indicating he's mediocre at best and awful at worst. At another year older, the contract he received solely on the strength of one incredible outlier of a season seems an unnecessary risk.

Need more be said about Zito?

And, a quick note on the bullpen: Assuming the bullpen will look something like: Wilson, Romo, Affeldt, Lopez, Mota, Casilla, (Runzler or Hembree?), the only players below peak age would be Romo, who has significant elbow concerns, and Runzler or Hembree, who would likely be among the last men out of the bullpen. Everyone else in the bullpen will be a year older and thus subjected to the requisite age-related decline. Counting on the bullpen to be as good as it was even a year ago is silly.

The Response

The most frustrating thing, for me at least, has been the Giants response to the problems laid out in front of it. When faced with an offense that needs upgrading and pitchers likely to soon enter their decline phase, the Giants chose to fail to upgrade the offense and focus instead on locking up the declining pitchers long term. This Bass-Ackwards strategy has left them banking on two injured players - one who plays a position where early peaks are frequent and injuries a constant concern and the other who was never really that good to begin with - to provide a significant upgrade to an offense that was so bad that they were outscored by the Padres (and likely will be again).

The Reasons For Optimism

Not all is terrible. The reason that this is so frustrating is because the Giants are an OK team, and would need very little in the way of upgrades to be considered favorites for their division. They're already OK. I just don't think they're good.

Any optimism for me rests in a belief that "OK" may be "Good Enough". The NL West is not particularly stacked (though I expect the Dodgers and Diamondbacks will both be running alongside the Giants), and there is a possibility for a low-win team to escape with the division. With the potential of two wild-cards, the waters get muddled further. I'm certainly not saying the Giants couldn't make the playoffs. I just think their odds could be higher.

So what would you have done, dummy?

Complaints without solutions are not fun to read, and since I know that a thought among many who read this will be "what would you have done instead?", I'll try to lay out a few ideas.

If the payroll really and truly must be 130 million, there were ways to save money. Declining to bring back Lopez and Affeldt and replacing them instead with lefty relievers like Verdugo and Runzler could have saved us significant coin. Non-tendering Jonathan Sanchez instead of trading him for a major league player (or trading him for a minor leaguer) could have saved money too. Even if you're uncomfortable going without Lopez or Affeldt, you need only pick one of the two, non-tender the fungible Santiago Casilla, and non-tender Sanchez instead of paying Cabrera, and you would have the roughly 13 million dollars that it would take to get Carlos Beltran, whose bat would have been mighty welcome.

There are other potential avenues for upgrades - trades, in particular, which I am uncomfortable holding the front office accountable for, since I have no idea who is and isn't available, etc. I'll say one thing: Sabean could redeem his entire offseason by swinging a trade for Alexei Ramirez.

THE TOO LONG, DIDN'T READ VERSION:

Offense might be good, but every player in it is extremely inconsistent. Giants depending on offensive upgrades from two injured players who can't be depended one.

Pitching might be good, but silly to think it will still be as good and uninjured as it's always been, as players get older.

Front office plan focused on wrong priorities, failed to upgrade terrible offense.

Still hope - division not great, 2 wild cards mean things can still happen.

Still, if you made me bet whether the Giants would reach the playoffs this year, I'd say no.

I want you to know, that I'm happy for you
I wish nothing but the best for you both
A lefty version of me
Does he hit lightly like me?
Would he lay a bunt and move the runner?
Does he grow scruff like me
And would he be so gritty
I'm sure he'd make a really excellent 'warmer

'cause the love that you gave at the trade wasn't able
To make it enough for you to tender me, no
And every time you pick his name
Does he know how you told me you'd control me
Until you died, till you died
But you're still alive

And I’m here to remind you
Of the mess you left when you non-tendered me
It’s not fair to deny me
Of the contract I want you to give to me
You, you, you Fontenot

You seem very well, things look peaceful
I'm not quite as well, I thought you should know
Did you forget about me, Mr. Sabes, so savvy
I hate to bug you in the middle of winter
It was a slap in the face how quickly I was replaced
Were you thinking of me when you tendered?

'cause the love that you gave at the trade wasn't able
To make it enough for you to tender me, no
And every time you write his name
Does she know how you told me you'd control me
But Sabesy lied, Sabsey lied
But Mike's still alive


And I’m here to remind you
Of the mess you left when you non-tendered me
It’s not fair to deny me
Of the contract I want you to give to me
You, you, you Fontenot

So the contract you gave out to him not to me
And I'm not gonna fade
As soon as you release me, and you know it
And every time I I hit a single on someone else's team
I hope you feel it...well can you feel it


And I’m here to remind you
Of the bat you lost when you non-tendered me
It’s not fair to deny me
Of the contract I want you to give to me
Un, un, un stoppable.

It's no secret that I (and many others) aren't exactly pleased with the way the offseason is progressing. But here, I wish to make explicit a few different aspects of why, exactly, I think that the way the Giants are seemingly approaching their offseason is horrible. We'll first delve in to their misplaced priorities, and then get in to the fantasy world they're living in vis a vis the way the offense is constructed.

The priorities.

They make no sense. The Giants are a team which suffered from a historically awful offense. Any success they did have is because of their pitching staff. Luckily, their pitching staff is all already under team control for next year.

So you'd think that, given that the strength of their team is all guaranteed to return next year while the major weakness of their team is something that needs immediate attention, the choice of which to hone in on would be obvious, right? Which do you think they're going to focus on this offseason?

If you said "the one that they don't have to focus on unless they want to", you'd be correct. That whole offense thing will work itself out.

Actually, that last line isn't sarcasm. That appears to be exactly what the Giants think. Which brings us to...

The fantasy world they're living in.

The Giants (and many fans) labor under a simple assumption: That since their pitching is so good (and will obviously never get injured, another fantasy assumption), they don't actually need a good offense. They just need "enough" offense, combined with "timely hitting" to get by.

The problem, which they do not appear to recognize, is that they do not have "enough" offense, and, really, they don't have anything close to "enough" offense.

See, for instance, their total levels of offensive production, as measured by wRC+, an all-encompassing measure of park- and league-adjusted offensive production. Each "point" of wRC+ above or below 100 is essentially a percentage point above or below the baseball average.

2009: 83

2010: 95

2011: 83

Notice anything there? When the Giants wRC+ hovers in the low 80s, they just can't make it into the playoffs. When it gets into the mid 90s, that's enough to win the division on the last day of the season.

So it certainly looks like, if we assume that the pitching next year will be as good as it's been for the past few years (a dangerous assumption, but one the Giants are certainly going to make), then it looks like they're going to have to boost their offensive production by roughly 10% relative to the rest of baseball.

Now, obviously, this is possible. I mean, look up there, the Giants did that between 2009 and 2010!

And how did they do it then? They got MVP caliber seasons from Aubrey Huff and Andres Torres, they got Freddy Sanchez's only healthy season in the past three years, they got Pat Burrell back from the dead, and they replaced Bengie Molina with a healthy and talented Buster Posey, who hit better than anyone had any right to expect.

These are the sort of things that have to happen, all together, for the Giants to have "enough" offense.

So what are the sort of things the Giants are going to be counting on next year to reach the "enough" level of offense?

1) They're counting on Freddy Sanchez, who's had one healthy season of the past three, and who, even when healthy, is an average-at-best hitter, to provide a significant upgrade. This despite the fact that he had a shoulder injury (do you use shoulders when hitting?) and the fact that he'll be another year older.

2) They're counting on Buster Posey, out all season with a massive leg injury, to come back at full strength and be as good as he was his rookie year, and playing a full season without any problems.

3) They're counting on Aubrey Huff, who is old and just had a historically awful season, to be good again. Because they want him to, and because he'll be working out.

4) They're counting on Brandon Crawford, who didn't hit in the majors last year and who never really hit in the miors, to come up and hit enough to justify his glove on the field. Either that or they're counting on being able to sign some veteran for cheap who will provide offensive value.

5) They're counting on Melky Cabrera, who's had one good year in his entire career, to have another one. And they're probably going to play him over Andres Torres, who's had two good years and one average one in the past three, because they've decided they don't like Torres.

And, really, just as egregiously,

6) They're counting on the starting pitching staff, which has suffered no significant in-season injuries for the past three years, to turn in another season where they're healthy and as good as they've ever been. And because they're counting on this, they've decided they don't need any offense.

This is crazy beans.

I did this two years ago when the Giants missed the playoffs, so I figured I'd post another poll now that we have our playoff teams finalized. I'll update it after the first round once people have been eliminated.

The Rays will obviously be sentimental favorites with the way they snuck in, but the Cardinals have a similar tale of scrappiness.

If you're looking for a long-standing team without a World Series to their name, the Rangers or Brewers might tug at your sympathies.

The Diamondbacks beat us, but they can be fun to watch. The Tigers have Verlander, but can they win a game he isn't pitching?

And I suppose you could root for the Phillies or the Yankees. But what kind of person would that make you?

Though I assure you there are more than 75 words in the flowchart, SBNation doesn't count them, so I have to post a bit up top. I'll just say this: my flowchart doesn't address cost on these players, so just assume that I mean that we should sign everyone to reasonable contracts. But this is what I think the Giants should do this offseason. I bleed orange. I bleed orange. I bleed orange. I bleed orange. I bleed orange.

A long, long time ago…
I can still remember
How that Series used to make me smile.
And I knew if Bochy had his chance
That I could make those veterans dance
And we’d probably be crappy for a while

But August came, it made me shiver
With every fly out, every squibber
Cabrera played at shortstop;
I couldn’t make the pain stop.

I can’t remember if I cried
When the standings were no longer tied,
But the Giants hurt me deep inside
The day the playoffs died

So bye-bye, world series try.
Drove my mazda to the plaza,
But the losses made me cry.
And the radio guys must have been high
Singin’, "What about this Brett Pill guy?
“What about this Brett Pill guy?”

Did you build the giant glove,
And do you have faith in the Sabes above,
If the owners tell you so?
Do you believe in walks and hits,
Do the Giants drive you to your wits?,
And can you teach me how to live in the pits?

Well, I know that you love yourself some Sabes
`cause I heard you love on Wilson’s saves
You both said “fear the beard”
But I cried those playoff tears,

I was a basement-dwelling SABR nerd
With an open spreadsheet and my vision blurred,
But I knew fangraphs word for word
The day the playoffs died.

I started singin’,
bye-bye, world series try.
Drove my mazda to the plaza,
But the losses made me cry.
And the radio guys must have been high
Singin’, "Let’s give Manny Burriss a try!"
" Let’s give Manny Burriss a try!"

Now for one year we’ve been hoping to win
On this team, our dreams we pin,
But that’s not how it used to be.

When Schmidty pitched for Dusty B,
With a heater and a change that were sights to see
And a grin that came from under his goatee,

Oh, and while Barry B was leaving town,
Zito stole a golden crown.
We knew he was overpaid;
Macgowan had the decision made!

And while Timmy learned how to pitch,
They drafted well, and had a niche
And there was only just one hitch
The day the playoffs died

We were singing,
bye-bye, world series try.
Drove my mazda to the plaza,
But the losses made me cry.
And the radio guys must have been high
Singin’, "What about this Darren Ford guy?
“What about this Darren Ford guy guy?”

Helter skelter in the summer weather.
The wheels fell off all together,
Seven games back and falling fast.
Landed, felt like we were in last..
The players tried but were out of gas ,
With Bochy, in the dugout, playing Cabs…

Now the all star break was sweet perfume
We thought Beltran would be a boon.
We all got up our hopes,
Oh, but we really couldn’t cope!
`cause the players tried to hit the ball;
The pitchers pitched well, one and all.
Do you recall what caused the fall
The day the playoffs died?

We started singing,
bye-bye, world series try.
Drove my mazda to the plaza,
But the losses made me cry.
And the radio guys must have been high
Singin’, "How selfish is this Beltran guy?
“How selfish is this Beltran guy?”

Oh, and there we were all in second place,
A whole year gone without a trace
With no time left to start again.
So come on: Sabes be savvy, Sabes be smart!
Sabes signs veterans to play a part
Cause gritty is the GM’s only friend.

Oh, and as I watched him trade away
My fingers typed an angry way.
No nerd on a blog
Could convince him Cabrera’s a dog

And as the season slinked off into the night
As nothing else seemed to go right,
I saw Gibson laughing with delight
The day the playoffs died

He was singing,
bye-bye, world series try.
Drove my mazda to the plaza,
But the losses made me cry.
And the radio guys must have been high
Singin’, "Let’s give Cain for Fielder another try!"
" Let’s give Cain for Fielder another try!"

I met a guy who wrote a blog
And I asked him if he liked the fog ,
But he just propellored and walked away.

I went down to the park at night
Where the playoff lights had burned so bright,
But the man there said the Giants wouldn’t play.

And in the office, Sabes he schemed,
The fans cried, and Boras dreamed.
But not a word was spoken;
The veterans all were broken.

And the players I despise the most:
Miguel Tejada and Rowand’s ghost
They caught the last flight off the coast
The day the playoffs died.

And they were singing,
bye-bye, world series try.
Drove my mazda to the plaza,
But the losses made me cry.
And the radio guys must have been high
Singin’, "Sign Pujols, for he is the guy!"
“Sign Pujols, for he is the guy!”

They were singing,
bye-bye, world series try.
Drove my mazda to the plaza,
But the losses made me cry.
And the radio guys must have been high
Singin’, "Mathis would be an interesting sign."
“Mathis would be an interesting sign.”

It's almost too good to think about. The idea of, perhaps, Albert Pujols in the orange and black, popping 40 home runs a year over the cars in left field.

The Giants have been named as a possible destination by a number of sources, from Yahoo to Buster Olney. After all, the Giants have, at least once before, given out big money to the best player in the league. And, hell, that worked out.

I wanted to poll the community on how much money you'd be willing to give Pujols. In order to do this, let's assume that Pujols demands a 10-year contract and let's assume you have to give it to him. The contract is 10 years - what is the absolute maximum amount you would be willing to pay?

There's been a lot of talk about how good we're going to be next season. Some are convinced we're the favorites to win the west and scoff at anyone who suggests otherwise. Some are a bit more skeptical and fear regression.

Now that we have the ZiPS projections, which happen to be some of my favorites, we can look at whether or not we're likely to see an offensive performance increase. I'll compare the projected numbers to the production that we got out of each position last year, which is data available by fangraphs. Keep in mind - I'm not comparing next year's players to this year's, I'm going to compare next year's players to the overall production we got from that position last year.

You should remember that, of course, not all players will play 162 games. So if player X is projected to have a .800 OPS, you need to adjust it downward by a few points to account for the theoretically worse player who will get starts in that player's absence.

CATCHER

2010 Positional Production:.281/.335/.439
Buster Posey ZiPS Projection: .297/.366/.479

Surprising how far down a few months of a terrible Molina brother can drag you. I don't think there's much doubt that we'll gain some offense at the catcher position.

FIRST BASE

2010 Positional Production: .292/.366/.490
Aubrey Huff ZiPS Projection:.273/.349/.465
Brandon Belt ZiPS Projection:.266/.357/.440

When you combine a career year from Aubrey Huff and the handful of games that Buster started at 1B, we got a ton of punch out of 1B. We're probably going to lose about as much here as we're going to gain at catcher, whether it's Huff or Belt who wins the position.

SECOND BASE

2010 Positional Production: .273/.329/.366
Freddy Sanchez ZiPS Pojection: .278/.320/.386

With Freddy injured for the start of last season, our 2B production suffered. But Freddy is once again hurt, and ZiPS doesn't think he's much of a hitter. Don't count on an upgrade in 2B production.

SHORTSTOP

2010 Positional Production: .255/.316/.415
Miguel Tejada ZiPS Projection: .287/.319/.411

This one was pretty surprising to me, considering that Juan was our primary shortstop. But the numbers don't lie, and it's likely they were brought down pretty significantly by some subpar play by Edgar Renteria. Miggy's projected to hit just about where we got last year, or even a bit better, so no big loss here.

THIRD BASE

2010 Positional Production: .266/.322/.403
Pablo Sandoval ZiPS Projection: .295/.346/.474

ZiPS is pretty bullish in predicting a rebound from Pablo, so we can call this one a nice improvement.

LEFT FIELD

2010 Positional Production: .264/.354/.464
Pat Burrell ZiPS Projection: .239/.342/.438   
Brandon Belt ZiPS Projection:.266/.357/.440

We got good lumber out of left field last year, and we can't expect to improve on that, no matter if we see Brandon Belt or Pat Burrell there. This one is down as a mild downgrade.

CENTER FIELD

2010 Positional Production: .251/.318/.434
Andres Torres ZiPS Projection: 252/.319/.428

I don't know why Andres' projection is what it is, but if ZiPS is to be believed, we'll get similar production in CF next year as the last.

RIGHT FIELD

2010 Positional Production: .256/.324/.427
Cody Ross ZiPS Projection: .269/.318/.450

The Giants got OK production from RF thanks to some fluky good hitting by Nate Schierholtz for a time and also from Aubrey Huff's couple of weeks in RF. Cody Ross is projected to be a bit better than what we got out of the position last year.

ANALYSIS

The Giants, perhaps unsurprisingly, got good production out of a lot of positions last year. They'll need to do so again next year to repeat. Let's see how likely that is.

UPGRADES: Catcher, Third Base, Right Field
WASHES: Second Base, Shortstop, Center Field
DOWNGRADES: First Base, Left Field

This, of course, doesn't take into account the production of players off the bench, and we're not quite sure where Brandon Belt will play. Both of those could throw off the numbers, but this is just a cursory look.

As is usually the case, the truth lies between the extremes. Anyone who says that the Giants offense will be better because we'll get full years of Posey/Ross/Burrell/Sanchez isn't seeing the whole picture. But we aren't necessarily going to see a downgrade either. The Giants will probably see something like the same level of offensive production as they did last year, which means they'll need to get the same level of fantastic pitching if they want to win another 92 games. Here's hopin'.

We've had some discussions about this, but I thought it'd be cool to give everyone a chance to say what their favorite game of the 2010 playoffs were. I'll include a brief description to jog your memory, and also my favorite highlight of the game. Feel free to use whatever criteria you want, and be as subjective as you want.

For simplicity's sake, I'm only going to include games that the Giants won. If your favorite game was a game we lost, well, you're weird.

Game One, National League Division Series - Braves at Giants. 1-0.

The first game of the playoffs, and a barn burner. The Giants, fresh off clinching the NL West on the last game of the season, hold court in AT&T park for the first postseason game in San Francisco since 2003. The only run on the game comes after a controversial 'safe' call on Buster Posey and a Cody Ross single. The show, however, is stolen by Tim Lincecum, who turns in the performance of a lifetime on the big stage.

HIGHLIGHT: Lincecum K's 14 in a complete game shutout

Game Three, National League Division Series - Giants at Braves. 3-2.

Known simply as 'The Brooks Conrad Game'.The Giants score early on an error by Conrad in the second on a tough play. The score stays the same until the 8th, when Eric Hinkse comes up huge with a pinch hit 2-run-home-run. Then, the top of the ninth. Travis walks. Freddy singles. Aubrey drives in Travis on a solid base hit. And Buster Posey hits a routine ball to second that just doesn't end well for Conrad...

HIGHLIGHT: In an effort to be nice to Brooks, I'll choose Aubrey's base hit that ties the game.

Game Four, National League Division Series - Giants at Braves. 3-2

The Giants fall behind early on a Brian McCann sac fly off our dear Madison Bumgarner. Cody Ross ties it with a solo home run, but McCann comes roaring back with a dinger of his own to put the Braves back up. Then, in the top of the seventh, Uribe reaches on another controversial call and Aubrey hustles home. Then Cody comes through with an RBI single to give the Giants all the runs they need (that is, just one more than the other guys)

HIGHLIGHT: Cody unties it

Game One, National League Championship Series - Giants at Phillies. 4-3.

The Giants enter the city of brotherly love and stare down the Cy Young winner, Roy Halladay. You know what happens. Cody Ross puts the Giants on top in the third with a dinger. Carlos Ruiz comes back with a solo shot of his own. Cody comes through again. Then, Pat the Bat hits has his biggest hit of the postseason, doubling home Buster in the 6th. Juan comes up with an RBI single to follow, and it's a good thing too, because Jayson Werth hits a 2 run that that almost allows the Phillies to come back.

HIGHLIGHT: How could it be anything but a Cody dinger?

Game Three, National League Championship Series - Phillies at Giants. 3-0.

Cody provides the first run of the game with an RBI single in the third. Aubrey tacks on another with a single of his own right after. Freddy drives in Rowand in the 5th. But really, we didn't need anything after the first run, because of Matt Cain, Javier Lopez, and Brian Wilson, who combine for a complete game 3-hitter shutout.

HIGHLIGHT: Tempting as it is to include a Cody hit or Matt Cain dominating, I have to go with Javier making the Phillies looking silly in the 8th

Game Four, National League Championship Series - Phillies at Giants. 6-5.

The Giants score twice in the early innings, and Madison appears to have everything under control until a meltdown in the fifth. Victorino drives in Francisco. Polanco drives in Victorino and Utley. Santiago Casilla comes in for relief... and throws a wild pitch that allows Polanco to score. The Giants are down 4-2, and they start clawing back. In the bottom of the fifth, Aubrey drives in Andres with an RBI single. Pablo doubles (twice) and drives in Pat and Cody to put us up by one. But then the bearded bastard Werth strikes again, doubling in Ryan Howard. But in the bottom of the ninth, Huff singles, Posey singles, and we see the most epic jazz hands ever made on a fly out...

HIGHLIGHT: Hard to choose just one, and it was tempting to go with the Panda's double, but how can you not go with the Jazz?

Game Six, National League Championship Series - Giants at Phillies. 3-2.

An incredible game. So many things go wrong. Jonathan Sanchez gives up a double to Utley and a sac fly to Werth to put the Giants in an early hole. And he doesn't even survive the third, first walking Polanco then plunking Utley. Jeremy Affeldt comes in against the heart of the Philly lineup with two on and no out... and doesn't allow a runner to move. Madison comes in for two innings of scoreless relief. Javier Lopez once again buzzsaws the heart of the order. And in the top of the eighth, Juan Uribe hits his first opposite field home run in two years to give the Giants a one run lead - and after a shaky relief appearance by Timmy, Brian gets lucky on a double play and shuts down the Phillies, and the Giants win the Pennant.

HIGHLIGHT: Jeremy Affeldt comes in with two on and no out and makes the Phillies look sillie.

Game One, The World Series - Rangers at Giants. 11-7.

A matchup hyped as a pitchers duel turns into anything but. Cliff Lee comes in with the hype of Sandy Koufax but leaves with the results of Todd Wellemeyer. The Giants offense explodes, pinning seven earned runs on Lee in just 4 2/3 innings. Freddy Sanchez becomes the first player in MLB history to double three times in his first three WS at bats. Lincecum struggles too, giving up four in just 5 2/3 innings, but with the explosion of the Giant offense, it's more than enough.

HIGHLIGHT: See Freddy. See Freddy double. And double. And double.

Game Two, The World Series - Rangers at Giants. 9-0.

This one holds a special place in my heart - I was at the game. It's remembered as a blowout, but the game was actually a taught pitcher's duel until the 8th inning. Matt Cain and CJ Wilson traded zeros through the 5th, when Edgar Renteria hit a solo home run to break the tie. Juan Uribe delivered an RBI single in the 7th, and then the Rangers bullpen imploded in the 8th. Matt Cain twirled 7 2/3 innings of shutout ball, turning it over to Javy Lopez and Guillermo Mota to finish off.

HIGHLIGHT: Matt Cain keeps the Rangers off balance - but listen at 1:30, when Matt Cain comes off the field. A fantastic standing ovation.

Game Four, The World Series - Giants at Rangers. 4-0.

Here's where Madison Bumgarner firmly implanted his name into Giants lore. The young lefty went eight scoreless, striking out 6 and giving up just three hits, and put a golden sombrero on one of the best hitters of our times, Vladimir Guerrero. Aubrey Huff provided all the offense we needed with a towering home run which has yet to fall, and Andres and Buster provided RBI hits just for good measure. Brian Wilson came in to seal the deal, putting the Giants one win away...

HIGHLIGHT: High Drive! Deep Right Field! And this... one... is... GONE! A TOWERING home run from Aubrey Huff!

Game Five, the World Series - Giants at Rangers. 3-1.

Tim Lincecum. Cliff Lee. With the title on the line. And a pitcher's duel. What more could you expect? Lee and Tim trade zeroes until the 7th, when the forgotten and widely-mocked Renteria comes through with the biggest home run in San Francisco's history (well, maybe that Barry guy would have something to say on that). Tim eventually gives up a meaningless home run to Nelson Cruz, but the damage is done. Tim throws eight, striking out ten in the biggest game of his life. Brian Wilson seals the deal.

HIGHLIGHT: We've all seen the home run highlight, the final strikeout is burned into our memory. But I think it's not fully appreciated how damn good Tim was this game. So we'll end on the same type of highlight we started with - Tim striking people out.

So now it's up to you! Vote for your favorite. I had a lot of fun compiling this.

Now that we have our star shortstop locked up, it's time to look towards which players will get tendered contracts.

You can find a list of all our arb-eligible players HERE.

Here, for me, are the categories of players we have.

NO-BRAINER TENDERS

1) Jonathan Sanchez - Uh, duh.

2) Andres Torres - It's his first time, he'll still be cheap. Again, duh.

3) Javier Lopez - Awesome loogy, will be relatively cheap. Hero down the stretch, and Bochy loves.

4) Cody Ross - Ross is available for arb his third time, so he won't be as cheap as the others. But he's relatively young at 30, and can play all three OF positions at average-to-above-average, and he's good enough at hitting to make him close to the total package. The best move here might actually be to extend him; he's due to make about 6 million in arb, so perhaps see if he'd be willing to take 2 years, 10 million.

Less-no-brainers

5) Santiago Casilla - he's good, and Bochy loves him. But he walks a lot of people to. I'm actually almost certain he'll be tendered.

6) Mike Fontenot - I'm very much in favor of tendering Fontenot a contract, but I don't think we're getting the same vibes from the front office. But this is a guy who plays defense well above average at 2B. He could be a decent emergency option at shortstop or third. He hits better than you think he does. Yes, he's a platoon bat, but he's the right kind of platoon bat - the left handed kind. We should have him back.

7) Ramon Ramirez - I'll admit that I was going to put this guy in the bottom category at first. But then I went to his fangraphs page and checked it out. Dude has a career FIP under 4. He'll be pretty cheap. He throws hard. Why not.

Leaning-towards-no

7) Chris Ray - Though he'll always have his place in Giants lore as Not-Bengie-Molina. But he's really not very good. I don't want him back.

I know there's a fair amount of us out there, but we've never made an effort to get together.

Is there any interest? Does someone have a favorite sports bar we could meet up at? Do any of you actually exist?

Post here and let's see if we can't get something going for game 6. I'm located out of Foggy Bottom, so I can get to any part of the city if required. It'd be nice to do a little meet-up. Maybe we can even coax xanathan out of his case.

I live in Washington, DC. I have watched every game this year. Every moment. Every wrenched gut. Every glorious victory. I have allowed my mood to be entirely controlled by this team.

But I live in Washington DC. I've been to 5 games this year - two against the Red Sox when I was in town for a week over the summer. Three when the Giants came to Washington to play the Nats.

This past week, I was on the phone with my dad. I had been encouraging him to take my little sister to a playoff game. Despite the rest of my family being A's fans (what?!), my little sister had escaped corruption. She had fallen in love with the characters on the Giants. The cuddly Panda. The delightful pitcher who looked like he could be her middle school classmate (a few years removed).

So my little sister should go to a playoff game, I told my dad. She's a Giants fan - she might not get this chance again. And finally, he seemed to relent. "You know, I'm thinking about taking Mack to a game. She'd have a good time."

"Yeah, she would", I responded. "But make sure you're in decent seats, otherwise the drunken revelers might not provide the best company".

"You're right", Pops responded. "And you know what else? You should look at some red eye flights. You know, for this series."

I was a little stunned. The very suggestion made me quiver with excitement. I told pops I'd think about it, and I hung up.

I'll get to the point, because I'm starting to wander: I've basically been given the green light to fly home to SF and go to a game.

So what's the problem, you ask?

The problem is that I can really only go to ONE game. And yes, I could fly home this week for an NLCS game. Or I could roll the dice, and save my father's offer for a game in a later series. You know - of the World variety.

I can only fly home for one game, feasibly. So what the hell should I do? Poll below.

UPDATED: A little more info on relative difficulty.

Going to the NLCS would be a little harder – Thursday games are the only ones that make sense, and I have a midterm this upcoming thursday which I would have to reschedule (assuming the professor would even let me).

If I went to a WS instead, that Thursday the 28th would be game 2, and I would be more free, academically.

There are a myriad of reasons to love Brian Wilson: the hair, the ridiculous attitude, the gimps walking around his house...

But for me, appreciation of my favorite players comes from numbers on a spread sheet, and Brian Wilson provides me with a lot to love. The best thing about Wilson, however, isn't just his stellar numbers... it's how he's managed to constantly improve himself.

Wilson basically became the full time closer in 2008 - his first full season in the bigs. Wilson was certainly impressive, earning an all star bid, but his peripheral stats left something to be desired. He accumulated .6 WAR over the year - good for a reliever, but not elite. His FIP was 3.93.

In 2009, as we know, Wilson turned it on. He was an above average closer in 08, but he became a monster in 09. He increased his K/9 rate from 9.67 to 10.33. He decreased his BB/9 rate from 4.04 to 3.36. His FIP plummeted from 3.93 down to 2.5. His ERA, for those inclined? Went from 4.62 all the way down to 2.74.

For these stats, combined with the fact that he was among the leaders in innings pitched by closers, Wilson was worth 2.4 WAR - the fourth most of any reliever in baseball, and second most in the National league.

Wilson's 09 was a phenomenal season. But there was reason for some suspicion: Wilson's BABIP in 2009 was .16 lower than it was in 08. Obviously, BABIP doesn't affect his walk and strikeout ratios, but the FIP could have been luck as well - Wilson had a very low HR/FB rate. Perhaps Wilson was just getting lucky. Perhaps his 2010 would regress a bit.

But what really sends a thrill up my leg is this simple fact: Brian Wilson just got better.

And not just by a little.

His 2010 is phenomenal. Strikeout rate has increased for the third year in a row, from 10.33 to 11.43. Walk rate has decreased for the third year in a row, from 3.36 to 3.31. FIP is down, from 2.5 down to 2.1. ERA? An incredible 1.79. His WAR for 2010 has already matched his 2009 total - and he is the second most valuable reliever in all of baseball, behind only the Cubs Carlos Marmol.

Ready for the coolest part? Wilson's been getting unlucky this year - his BABIP is .348, higher than his career average and the league average.

There is nothing in this fanpost you couldn't have looked up yourself on Fangraphs, but I felt compelled to put into words my complete and utter appreciation for Wheezy. Watching him on the mound is a delight.

The following is a list of Baseball America's list of the Philadelphia Phillies top 10 prospects in 2009:

Now, a list of where these players are now:

1)      In the majors

2)      To the Indians for Cliff lee

3)      To the Indians for Cliff Lee

4)      To the Indians for Cliff Lee

5)      To the Jays for Roy Halladay

6)      Traded to the Jays for Roy Halladay

7)      Traded to the Jays for Roy Halladay

8)      Still in Phillies org

9)      Rumored to be going to Astros for Roy Oswalt

10)  To the Indians for Cliff Lee

No no. This is not what you think. In this thread, we talk about our beat writers! However, the slow death of the newspaper means that we are down to only two "real" old-school beat writers, so I will also include a third challenger from a more non-traditional beat source. Poll at the end.

The Contenders:

Andrew Baggerly, The San Jose Mercury News

PROS: Baggerly is probably the best-loved beat reporter around these parts. He's a solid writer, seems to ask the right questions (i.e. the ones that us nerds want asked), and he's fairly prolific: we can usually expect a gamestory, a 'notebook' entry, and a postgame notes blog post after every game played, each with tidbits and factoids and interesting material.

CONS: Baggerly is probably the least accessible of any of the beat writers. He does have a twitter feed, but 90% of it is just links to his stories/blogs. He almost never responds to fans directly, via twitter or any other method. He's also a bit a a flip flopper: just a few weeks ago he was admonishing us complaining fans to "enjoy the game"... right before he started becoming extremely critical of management's behavior. I'd be lying if I said that I don't enjoy Alex Pavlovic (his fill-in on off days) a bit more than Baggerly nowadays.

Mychael Urban, CSN Bay Area

PROS: Urban does the most fan interaction of any of the beat writers, bar none. His twitter feed is extremely conversational; almost all of it is talking with fans. In addition, he holds weekly chats to take questions and dole out whatever insight he has. His writing style, while by no means sophisticated, is highly accessible. Players seem to like him, and he having good relationships means he gets good access. He also produces the most multi-media of any of the writers, his fip-cam videos being the obvious example.

CONS: That writing style, while accessible, can get annoying sometimes too. Phrases like 'Book it.' sound cool to say, but come off a bit lame. In addition, Urban suffers from some sort of delusions of... well, not grandeur, but certainly insight. And he is sometimes dead wrong. There is also some odd confusion over some of the things he says, exhibit A here. Urban also pulls double duty; devoting some fraction of his time to those n'er-do-well's in Oakland.

Henry Schulman, The San Francisco Chronicle

PROS: Schulman is something like the middle road when compared to the other two: he's a traditional beat writer, and his writing is fine. He also makes a bit of an effort to reach out to fans. His tweets are the golden mean: mix of talking TO the fans and talking WITH the fans, providing information and insight while still talking to people. He is as prolific as you'd expect a beat writer to be: game stories, beat pieces, and a blog too, though his is far less often updated than Baggerly's.

CONS: Of these three, Schulman is the one most often accused (fairly or not, though I think it's fairer than not) of being something of a front office shill. He does tend to toe the company line on a lot of issues, and pieces like this one are infuriating and ill-informed. Schulman is an old-school kind of guy, and doesn't seem to be particularly inclined to change his ways, or to learn about the new ways of thinking.

-----------------------------------------------

So there you have my thoughts! Take a vote in the poll and leave comments. Have I forgotten someone? I considered adding Jeff Fletcher from AOL fanhouse, but he just doesn't write enough stuff for me to make judgments I don't think.

The Molina trade was an unmitigated success. Sabean is thinking outside what we had thought was his box, willing to move veterans and make bold statements. Here are the three moves that I think Sabean should make to complete his trading.

Trade Aaron Rowand for Carlos Zambrano

Right off the bat, I can tell you that this will be the most controversial of the three things I propose. Lots and lots of people lol'd at the ROWAND FOR BRADLEY idea this offseason, and in theory this looks similar. It's not, for a few reasons. First of all, Bradley for Rowand would have been outfielder for outfielder. If there's one single thing we know about the Giants, it's that we have too many outfielders. This would help clear up the logjam and give some young guys and/or gritty vets (I'll let you decide who Bochy will play) more playing time.

Second of all, Zambrano would probably fit in well here. There wasn't really any reason to believe that Bradley would do better in SF than Chicago, but SF might just be the perfect fit for Carlos. We have a lot of Latin players here (not to make this a race thing, but you gotta feel like we're a friendly clubhouse for guys from south of the border), and Pablo Sandoval was childhood friends with the guy. Add that to the fact that Zambrano isn't actually a bad pitcher, despite recent struggles, and you have a win-win. Plus, Chicago's last bad contract swap worked out pretty well for them; maybe they'd like to try again.

But, you say, this leaves us with 6 starting pitchers! Whatever shall we do? Well...

Trade Jonathan Sanchez for ___________________

This I'll leave up to your imagination. There's no doubt Sanchez is a good trade chip; young, cost-controlled, a good mix of potential and some proven results. Personally, I lean towards packaging Jonathan with a prospect or two for Prince Fielder, but I understand people's aversion to the idea. Maybe Jonathan is what it takes to get David DeJesus, or Hunter Pence or something. All worth looking in to, and if we got Zambrano, we could afford to lose Jonathan. Of course, we could still trade Jonathan without getting Zambrano, but it'd be more painful in terms of lost value (no offense meant to Yeah Joey!).

Trade Edgar Renteria for whatever

This is a list of all major league teams ranked by OPS from their shortstop position. Now don't get me wrong, I'm not a huge Edgar fan. But there are some contenders near the bottom of that list who are getting atrocious production from that spot (tigers, rays, cardinals, reds). Edgar's not great, but I think even he can put up a .700 OPS for the season, which would be an upgrade for a lot of teams. Sabean should call each and every one of those teams and offer Renteria for prospect(s). Offer to pay his entire salary, and get something good back. This trade would be in line with the Molina trade: a veteran with some sort of value whose presence on this team is squeezing out some other players.

I understand that these, particularly the Rowand for Zambrano idea, might not be that popular, but I think they reflect a good combination of WIN NOW and planning for the future. Ideas #2 and #3 could be executed independently of the others, of course, though trading Jonathan without having a backup plan (again, Yeah Joey or Uninjured Wellemeyer) is probably not the greatest idea.

Thoughts? How crazy am I?

I couldn't resist.

Discussion starter: Has there ever been a winning team that felt this much like a losing one? If I had to guess at the record of the 2010 San Francisco Giants using only my emotions and the quality of lineup being rolled out on a daily basis, we'd probably be at .350.

Incidentally, I really hope we win these next two Bengie-less games. That would do us all a lot of good.

In trying to evaluate who the best hitters on the team are, a variety of factors can be used. One of the most fun ones, kept by baseball-reference, is pitches per plate appearance. So, without further ado, our leaders...

The numbers are a little surprising, especially Bengie and Edgar ranking up so high. The fact that our #1 pitches/PA batter is our 8 hitter while the guy who's dead last bats leadoff is hilarious.

Updated: Bengie drops below average as of today, and Pablo goes below Rowand for last place.