Went to Game 3 at Staples Center, and I did not go home disappointed.

Here are some random observations that I logged in my head throughout the game, to share with you now:

• THE 13TH MAN -I have been to a least a dozen games since the Lakers moved from the Great Western Forum, and I have never experienced Staples Center like that, with people standing at appropriate times, and "D-FENCE" chants pretty much from tip to buzzer. And did anyone catch the Lower Merion 33 jersey wearer in the front row jumping up from his seat to yell at Sefolosha taking a 3 pointer 5 feet from him? Not sure that's sportsmanlike, but that's how engaged the crowd was. And the energy was evident especially after the game. Spontaneous chants of "Let's Go Lakers" rang throughout the hallways of the arena as we exited the building. I'm guessing we were right at the perfect peak of being the underdog, yet having tremendous hope. You'd never hear that kind of enthusiasm if the Laker were the favorites. Kind of an amazing feeling, but also a reality-check about where the Lakers stand in the series.

• OKC FANS IN DA HOUSE - My friend and I sat next to a couple fitted in OKC Thunder gear. I couldn't resist giving them a nice welcome by telling them, "You came to the wrong game, because we're going to win this one, but I'm not so sure about tomorrow". My friend was prophetic when he consoled them in advance with, "At least you'll get tacos". I was a bit embarrassed when the upper deck started chants of "Westbrook sucks" after the World Peace summit.

• MORE FISH PLEASE - Except for a layup up where he blew by Kobe, Fisher was putrid. I can't believe the Lakers point guards don't take advantage of every single opportunity when they are being guarded by Fish. At least Kobe knows what to do. Watching Fisher trying to guard Kobe one-on-one was high comedy. And the running "Activate Mission: Sabotage Thunder" joke for Fisher has still not gotten old. Unfortunately Fish may have shown his hand too early, and Scotty Brooks might play him less the rest of the series. But I hope not!

• NO MORE OF THIS LINEUP - Early in the 2nd quarter, Coach Brown had this Fab Five on the court: Blake, Sessions, Barnes, Hill, and Gasol. Please, mercy, never let me see this again. There is not a natural scorer in the bunch, and the offense consists of approx zero players who are willing to create a shot. You always have to have either Bynum or Bryant out there, else the lineup is one that might work well if there were no shot clock. Unfortunately, there is a shot clock, and this group does not work well given 24 seconds to make something happen. Speaking of 24 seconds, why don't the Lakers guards try to "walk the dog" more, and let the ball roll so that time doesn't start? I know they're slowing down the game, but they're always giving themselves only 16 seconds to really start their offense, and I'm always checking the shot clock to make sure they pass the half court line before an 8-second violation can be called. They're wasting time that they could be using to create offense.
  

• MANU GINOBILI'S BROTHER? - James Harden plays similarly to a certain Spurs wing player, with shifty moves that make getting to the rack look effortless. He can also knock down the three, and he seems immune to Kobe's pump fakes (does he have some antidote to Black Mamba venom?). But he's also a dominant lefty, like Manu, a fact that seems to sometime escape Laker defenders. I know it's easier said than done, but a strategy of pushing him to his right would seem appropriate.

• KOBE - I won't lie, my favorite subject. Of course, he took some bad shots, but he also made some ridiculous shots, and his mere presence in a lineup gives it immediate offensive legitimacy. You always have to worry about him if you are on defense, and it takes its toll, especially if the Lakers supporting players show up and make some baskets. I'd love to see more of the PG-Kobe screen and roll, it's so effective if the PG is aggressive, because the defense has to pick their poison, and most of the time the poison they pick is "not-Kobe". Blake got at least five points running the pick-and-roll with Kobe, and while the credit goes to Blake for making the shots themselves, the credit goes to Kobe for Blake being open or having space to go to the rack in the first place. Box score watchers get hissy at statements like this, but you can see this effect all the way from the upper deck. It's real, and it's significant.
• FOULS AND MORE FOULS - Speaking of things you can see from the upper deck, you can't see the if the "ticky tack" fouls are warranted, but I can tell you this from high up: when Kobe is trying to establish post position, he's fouled just about every time. It's like a wrestling match, and every defender is fighting to keep him from getting to where he wants. It's understandable, because if Kobe gets good position in the post, it's a recipe for disaster for the defense. But defenders since time immemorial have been uprooting Kobe and pushing him off his spot. Think Raja Bell. If you don't fight as a defender, you're dead, but still, those are fouls. Look at tape of the 80s basketball, and you won't see so much shoving of the post player. Defenders respected when the player had position, and attempted to guard them from there. In Kobe's era, there's constant shoving in the back, arms being placed where they shouldn't be, and a ton of reaching.My favorite is the defender pushing with his chest, as if not using arms means it wasn't a foul. This happened to Durant too, by World Peace, but Durant doesn't try to get that post position as persistently as Kobe, which might be a function of the effort required and the potential reward for Durant. With all this contact happening, fouls are going to get called, and if, with all the other fouls, you're put into the bonus, then you're really in trouble because now every post foul you make is two shots, or the alternative is Kobe's going to get good post position, and then you're at danger of being scored on. Kobe must love being in the bonus.

• TRUE CLUTCH - Metta World Peace. Whereas I think most players just hope not to play worse in pressure situations, this guy actually does seem to be a better player under pressure, it's so strange. But just want to give some credit here, because the guy has some of the strongest, quickest hands I've ever seen. He even blocks shots without seeming to leave the ground! I started to assume he got a hand on the ball anytime a Thunder player lost the ball, even though one time, I think Durant just lost it himself. Also, I have to think that one of the most frightening situations to be in is at the bottom of jump ball scrum with World Peace trying to wrestle the ball from you. Nothing good can come from being in this situation.
• SHOOT THE FREAKING BALL - You don't have to tell Bynum or World Peace this, but you have to shout it to Gasol, Blake, and Sessions. Blake is a better shooter than World Peace, but World Peace will pull the trigger if he's open. If Blake had World Peace's mentality, the offense would run a lot smoother. Sessions was more aggressive tonight in driving to the rim, but I still saw him pass up at least one open shot. It wastes the effort of the offensive machinations that take place to allow you to be open when you don't take the shot when you are open, and you also show the defense that they can afford not to close out on you and help elsewhere. You never had to tell Farmar or Sasha this, and while it may have been frustrating at times to see them miss, it kept defenses honest. Yeah, I mentioned Farmer and Sasha.

• STILL NOT ON TOP - Self explanatory

Check my math ... no seriously, check to make sure I didn't make an error.

Here's my guide to the scenarios that can happen in the scoring title "race" between Kobe Bryant and Kevin Durant ...

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Based on this post over at the Painted Area, and used with M.Haub's permission.

I wanted to get this in right after the regular season ended and before the playoffs started, but what can I say, I'm busy.

Let's speed right through this. It's always fun to look in hindsight at people's posted predictions.

The Painted Area's October 20th post shows the NBA regular season win predictions, by team, of John Hollinger, Kevin Pelton, and Kelly Dwyer. If you don't know who they are, that is good. The internet is a helluva drug for basketball addicts.

I took their predictions, compared them to the actual results, and how they would have done against the Vegas Odds if they had to choose over or under the Vegas line. The only one off the board were the Lakers, who hit the exact mark of 57 wins.

Check out the results after the Jump

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With all this talk of "advanced statistics" lately with the MIT Sloan Analytics conference, and the rising use of individual basketball statistics in everyday basketball arguments, I feel I must re-emphasize my position.

The way individual basketball statistics are kept do not make sense.

What is a made basket in basketball? It can be a highly individual campaign, fully crafted by one player. Or it can be a "made" by two players, half made by the assisting player, and the other half crediting to the scorer for making the shot. So far so good. Solo points made get credited to the scorer, and an assist given to the passer. Great. But, what if there were three players involved in making that basket happen? If you know how basketball works, you know this happens pretty frequently. What if there are four players that contributed? You can have up to ten players (rarely), including the defenders, involved the making of a basket. And the same goes for a missed shot! Yet when a player makes a basket, he gets all the credit, and every one else on the court gets zero, except maybe for the passer, who gets an assist. And the allocation can change for every basket depending on how it was created. This is an allocation problem, and it's a huge problem in individual basketball statistics. The same thing goes for rebounds and steals!

Which is why I have no problem with team statistics, because you have no allocation problems. The team scores, the team rebounds, the team defends as a single unit. You only need to worry about adjusting for pace and other minor details. Clean.

Like a double rainbow, what does it all mean? See after the jump ...

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I told myself I would cut back on this internet blogging business this season, as well as watching so many games. And I have reduced the time I've put into the Lakers this season, but now this historic Cleveland losing streak has gotten my hackles up and I have to write.

Why? Am I a secret Cavaliers fan? Well, no, not really. But I really wanted the Cavaliers to make some noise after the King bolted their city, to show that they were a good supporting cast that had depth. And now, this latest debacle is going to make the typical fan say "See? I told you those bums were no good without Lebron!" and other things like "The Cavs never tried to make the team better when Lebron was there, that's why he left!".

Let's talk about the first point - Lebron's supporting cast. Let's get this straight: the team that just lost their 24th straight game is not the same as Lebron's supporting cast from last year. We obviously know that Shaq also left, and Ilguaskas is with his buddy in Miami, and Delonte West is in green in Boston. But here are the Cavaliers that played more than 20 minutes against Portland last night, and their minutes played:

Jamison 37:16
Sessions 33:15
Hickson 31:47
Eyenga 27:42
Parker 26:02
Gibson 25:32

And now, here is a list of the Cavs who played more than 20 minutes in the Cavs last game of the playoffs last season, and their minutes played:

Mo Williams 46:31
L̶e̶b̶r̶o̶n̶ ̶4̶6̶:̶1̶2̶
Jamison 29:48
Parker 28:41
Varajeo 26:44
Shaq 24:07

As you can see, a much different Cavs team, even outside of Lebron. Christian Eyenga is now starting for the Cavs. Anderson Varajeo is out for the season.

So don't confuse last year's Lebronites with this season's Cavs team, they are hardly similar.

What about the claim that the Cavs never made any trades or signings that mattered?

Hogwash- after the jump

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Earlier Post Moved to Front Page

Let me present an extreme example.

There are 5 players on a team, and you can only score two points for a made basket.

Scenario 1

4 of the players are "bad", skills-wise, at shooting. Because they are so bad at shooting, they limit their field goal attempts. This is good. They only take good and easy shots, usually lay-ups or put-backs. Let's say they only take 3 shots a game, and they make 2 shots a game for the aforementioned reasons. So they shoot 66% on their FG percentage, a very efficient shooting percentage, for 2 makes * 2 points * 4 players = 16 points.

1 player is "good" skills-wise, at shooting. Because he is good at shooting, the coach asks him to take as many of the shots as he can, even if they are difficult, as long as there is no opportunity for a lay-up or put-back by his teammates. For this reason he takes 80 shots a game, and makes only 32 of them, making him a 40% shooter. Not very efficient, but he scores 32*2= 64 points.

Scenario 2

Those bad shooters, if they were to take the same number of shots as the "volume shooter" as a group, would take 20 shots a piece, for a total of 80 FGA. Now, here's the assumption, and I realize it's a big one: they are not good shooters, so they would only make 6 out of those 20 looks (6 total makes * 2 points * 4 players = 48 points). On the other side, the good shooter can do just as well or better as the bad shooters if he takes the same 3 shots apiece (12 total) that they were taking. Let's say he makes 8 of those 12 shots, the same as the bad shooting group as a whole. That's (8 makes * 2 points = 16 points).

After the jump: Which scenario is better for team?

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Faithful Lakers and Adam Morrison fans, good morning!

On the verge of this supposed monumental game against the San Antonio Spurs, I have been having a civil discourse with the insightful Pounding the Rock "coach", jollyrogerwilco.

Our series of exchanges will delight and entertain you for minutes, and bring the anticipation of tonight's game to a boil!

Read all about it after the jump!

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