
Gopherballs
Feb 12, 2008 Dec 15, 2009 21 2237
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Shane Costa and Ryan Shealy Eras Officially End
MLB has released the list of six-year minor league free agents, which includes notable Royals Shane Costa, Ryan Shealy, and Chris Lubanski. Under the rules, a minor leaguer with six full years of credited service time in the minors can become a free agent if his organization does not place him on its 40-man major league roster. Neither Costa, Shealy, nor Lubanski were expected back, so this comes as no surprise. Costa is now free to fulfill his destiny as a backup outfielder for the Padres, while Shealy and Lubanski will be looking for jobs filling out AAA rosters.
CHONE Projections for 2010
Costa: 279/336/418, +1 batting runs above average
Shealy: 245/329/398, -2 batting runs above average
Lubanski: 243/309/379, -13 batting runs above average
The full list of now former Royals is after the break.
39 comments | 1 recs
The Latest Word on Evaluating Catcher Defense, or Miguel Olivo's Defense Is As Bad As We Thought
Our own devil_fingers spent an inordinate amount of time creating his own methodology to evaluate catcher's defense based on throwing out runners, preventing wild pitches and passed balls, throwing errors, and catching errors. Not surprisingly, the three Royals backstops fared poorly: Pena was -2.9 runs in limited playing time, Buck was -4.8 runs in more playing time, and Olivo was 113th out of 114 at -8.8 runs (thanks Mike Napoli).
2 months ago
Gopherballs
17 comments
1 recs
Further Evidence Baseball Prospectus Is As Out of Touch As A Mike Meyers Comedy
From today's Christina Kahrl chat, following up on an answer in which she badmouths Ryan Sweeney:
vegasbill (Las Vegas): UZR and BPro defense stats both have Sweeney as a pretty great defender. Combined with his average offense he's a valuable player.
Christina Kahrl: Average for what, all major league hitters? Certainly not for right fielders; a .261 EqA from a corner outfielder isn't valuable, it's something you have to overcome to score enough runs to contend.
How did one of the main Baseball Prospectus writers completely miss the boat on valuing defense and positional adjustments?
17 comments | 1 recs
Flooding the Market: 1B/DH-Types Abound
One development last offseason was that many good hitting but defensively challenged players – or "1B/DH-types" – found a weak market for their services and had to take contracts well below what they would have received in previous years (Adam Dunn, Pat Burrell, Bobby Abreu, etc.). The Royals, however, were unable to take advantage, as they preemptively filled their one open 1B/DH spot by surrendering Leo Nunez to Florida instead of waiting for the Marlins to formally non-tender Mike Jacobs.
This offseason, potential free agent 1B/DH-types will again be plentiful. Here is the list according to Cots (which includes a few "OF" and "3B" whose defense or health are so bad that they really should only DH anymore):
14 comments | 0 recs
Free Talent Alert
With too many outfielders and a full 40-man roster, the Rockies have designated corner outfielder Matt Murton for assignment. While no future star, Matt Murton is a nice player who can hit for average, take a walk, avoid strikeouts, hit the ball in the gaps, and play an average to slighly above average corner outfield. A right-handed hitter, he has mashed LHP (career: 306/374/483, 857 OPS) while holding his own against RHP (career: 276/340/412, 752 OPS). Only 27, he is under club control for four more years (although he may qualify for arbitration next year as a Super 2). There is not a lot of upside, but with regular playing time, he could be a league average (~2.0 WAR) player -- maybe a little more with an age 27-29 peak bump -- for near the league minimum. At the very least, he would make a very good fourth outfielder, especially for a team with two left-handed hitters starting in the corners (like say David DeJesus and Mark Teahen). And yes, a right-handed (and cheaper) Mark Teahen is a fair comparison.
This would be a little move, but one that could push the Royals back in a positive direction at little cost.
3 months ago
Gopherballs
16 comments
1 recs
Billy Butler is Average, or Fangraphs Steals Devil_Fingers' Material
R.J. Anderson of Fangraphs and D-Rays Bay takes a quick look on players who have been essentially average this year. "Borrowing" the idea from somebody else "appropriately named Devil_Fingers," he lists a few average players, some surprising (Jason Bay? Really!), some not (Mark DeRosa), based on Wins Above Replacement (WAR). The Royals' own Billy Butler gets a shout out.
One player who missed the cut was Adam Dunn, who despite mashing the ball this year, is still below average because he plays awful, awful defense in both the outfield and at first base. If Dunn was a DH, however, he would actually be average to slightly above average.
4 months ago
Gopherballs
0 comments
0 recs
More Thoughts on Davies
Davies 2009 (through May 27 start):
4.94 FIP
6.33 K/9, 3.86 BB/9, 1.64 K/BB, 8.9% swinging strike rate
1.23 HR/9, 11.8% HR/FB
17.4% LD%, 44.4% GB%, 288 BABIP
The K/BB is almost exactly his 2008 1.65 K/BB, so he has added a few strikeouts at the expense of a proportional number of walks. A good sign is that his swinging strike rate is up almost a 1% from 8.0% in 2008. As expected, his HR/FB rose from an unsustainable 6.7% in 2008 to a tick above average in 2009. He has also turned about 5% of batted balls from line drives (21.6% LD% 2008) into groundballs (38.8% GB% 2008).
3 comments | 4 recs
When Is A Small Sample Size No Longer Small?
Eric Seidman at Fangraphs has a nice article summarizing research on when sample sizes become (somewhat) reliable for hitters. The research suggests that the following stats begin to stabilize with the corresponding number of plate appearances:
50 PA: Swing %
100 PA: Contact Rate
150 PA: Strikeout Rate, Line Drive Rate, Pitches/PA
200 PA: Walk Rate, Groundball Rate, GB/FB
250 PA: Flyball Rate
300 PA: Home Run Rate, HR/FB
500 PA: OBP, SLG, OPS, 1B Rate, Popup Rate
550 PA: ISO
Did not stabilize by 650 PA (the cutoff): BA, BABIP
The underlying work was done by a well respected analyst who goes by the handle Pizza Cutter at the Statistically Speaking blog. His research on pitchers is here.
6 months ago
Gopherballs
7 comments
1 recs
Brayan Pena DFA'd
Or so says one of the totally legitimate rumor sites. Considering Pena historically has struggled against RHP and has a questionable defensive reputation, he might actually clear waivers.
This clears a spot for the return of Jose Guillen.
7 months ago
Gopherballs
19 comments
0 recs
So What Are K/9, BB/9, and K/BB Anyway?
Continuing with the series on explaining useful statistics as requested in the excellent For All the Dummies post, this entry looks at three key pitching statistics that both scouting and statistical analysts consider very important: strikeout rate (K/9), walk rate (BB/9), and strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB, or alternatively K:BB). Again, the purpose here is provide a brief introduction and (likely oversimplified) explanation of these stats, not to start any debates or provide any in-depth analysis.
11 comments | 10 recs
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