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Devil Fingers on Sal Perez and Sample Size


Here is the conclusion: "The tiny bit we might have learned from the numbers about Perez so far indicates is that he is going to take his swings and make contact. We might also initially say that he is not a fan of the free pass. Now, those things is neither very exciting nor surprising if you looked at Perez’s minor league numbers or read what people were saying about him as a prospect. But that is not the issue here. The issue is how some people take his major league numbers on their own to mean something. Overall, they mean very little, and even what they can tell us about his plate approach is only slightly "stable." That is not to dismiss Perez’s minor league performances or the scouting reports derived from them. On the contrary, given the near-irrelevant sample (with respect to estimating his true talent) of his major league statistics to date, his minor league stats and especially scouting reports are much more important. Perez is a very young player with loads of potential. But if you want to make that point, scouting reports are going to do far more work than what happened during Perez’s 198 major-league plate appearances to date."

I believe most of the top talents in this draft will go in the first 50 picks, because otherwise it...


I believe most of the top talents in this draft will go in the first 50 picks, because otherwise it will be tough to pay them. Most of the second-tier high school players who are willing to sign for $500,000 to $750,000 will go in the second and third rounds, for the same reason. After that, I envision a lot of college and junior college players in rounds 4-10.

Jim Callis on the new draft rules from latest Ask BA. He also suggests that the two main strategies for freeing up extra money under the new cap rules will be (1) taking players earlier than expected who will sign at a discount and (2) taking college seniors who will sign well below slot in rounds 4-10.

SOS Still a Royal!


Not surprisingly, no one else wanted Sean O'Sullivan as he cleared waivers and was outrighted to AAA. As a result, SOS stays with the organization but is removed from the 40-man roster. If he is ever recalled (please no), the Royals would have to make room on the 40-man roster for him.


UPDATED: Royals Review AL Only Ross Gload Memorial League and Open Thread

There are a couple spots available for the RR AL Only Ross Gload Memorial Roto League. The draft will be Thursday, March 15, at 7:30 pm central time. It is a standard 5x5 roto format (OBP, HR, RBI,...


How bad and for how long would the young players have to play before being sent to the minors?

The Royals project to start the year with five position players who have less than a full year of major league service time -- Eric Hosmer, Johnny Giavotella, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain, and Sal...


Hosmer Will Be A Super Two

Per ESPN's article on changes under the new CBA: After the 2012 season, about five to six additional major leaguers will become eligible for salary arbitration each year. The group of players with...


Who is the next Felipe Paulino?

Instead of another re-hash of "let's trade for Wandy Rodriguez" or "let's acquire whatever starting pitcher that MLB Trade Rumors mentioned today," something that might be worthwhile would be...

Royals Urged to Take Things Slow by Hardball Times Article


This is a nice little article by THT's Joshua Fisher (who I am guessing reads Royals Review) explaining why the Royals should hold off on spending significant money or prospects to acquire frontline pitching for 2012. And to expand on one point, while there seems to be sentiment that a .500 Royals team could contend next year, the AL Central winner has averaged 93 wins over the last decade (and only finished with less than 90 wins twice during that time, 87 wins in 2009 and 89 wins in 2008). Sacrificing money or talent that could help toward winning 90 games in 2013 and beyond in exchange for a chance to win 83 games in 2012 is the wrong play.


OT: Fall TV Season

The TV networks have started to roll out their new shows, and like seemingly every year, the outlook is pretty bleak.  The only show I was somewhat looking forward to watching was "Up All Night,"...

BA's Jim Callis: " I suspect the Royals will fall in the 11-20 range rather than in the top 10."


"There's still talent in the pipeline, but at the same time Kansas City may not have more four prospects on the 2012 Top 100. When we update our organization rankings in the 2012 Prospect Handbook, I suspect the Royals will fall in the 11-20 range rather than in the top 10." Baseball America's Jim Callis answering the question "will the Royals still have a top 10 farm system heading into 2012?"


2012 Royals Payroll -- More Committed than You Think, But Still Plenty to Go Around

A frequent recent comment -- one that Kevin Goldstein apparently mentioned first and subsequently repeated many times in the comments -- is that the Royals have zero financial commitments to their...


Hot Stove About to Heat Up

If the offseason has seemed slow so far, it is about to pick up.  Earlier this fall, the owners and the players agreed to move up several of the offseason deadlines.   After the holiday weekend,...

Fangraphs on the Royals "Getting Out of the Cellar"


Joe Pawlikowski, the one Fangraphs writer whose last name gets misspelled more often than Matt Klaassen, discusses potential courses of action the Royals could take to return to contention. The suggestions are nothing new to regular readers -- trade veterans (Greinke, DeJesus, Soria, and maybe Butler) for younger and cheaper players, especially at catcher, middle infield, outfield, and for at least the short-term, the mound -- but provides a nice summary of the Royals' situation.


Josh Fields: Tender/Non-Tender

  One of the first orders of business this offseason will be whether the Royals will tender contracts to its arbitration eligible players.  While most of the decisions are obvious, Josh Fields p...


Keeping Prospects In Perspective: Baseball America's Top 10 Prospects 2006-2008

With the recent trend in stories projecting future Royals rosters in 2012 and beyond, it seemed a good idea to look back on how players rated as the top prospects in baseball from a few seasons ago...

Fangraphs: What the Kansas City Royals Should Do


In a continuing series on what each MLB team should do as the trade deadline approaches, the late devil_fingers concludes[Spoiler Alert] the Royals should sell, sell, sell.


Out of Options Players From Around the Majors

As mentioned in the recent Davies thread, the Royals should keep an eye on other teams' players who are out of options, as they may become available in trade or on waivers before final rosters are...


Hey, At Least We're Not the Astros: Fangraphs Ranks Royals as the 29th Best Organization in Baseball; or Et Tu, devil_fingers?

Fangraphs is again counting down its rankings of each organization in baseball.  Despite a recent binge of hiring Royals bloggers to counter a perceived bias against all things Royals,...


Why Using 2009 Results to Predict 2010 Does Not Work, or Yes, Yuniesky Betancourt Can Only Get Better

Dave Cameron at Fangraphs has a nice article on the perils of using the prior year's result as the baseline for projecting the next year's results, including a few encouraging words on postive...


Shane Costa and Ryan Shealy Eras Officially End

MLB has released the list of six-year minor league free agents, which includes notable Royals Shane Costa, Ryan Shealy, and Chris Lubanski.  Under the rules, a minor leaguer with six full years of...

The Latest Word on Evaluating Catcher Defense, or Miguel Olivo's Defense Is As Bad As We Thought


Our own devil_fingers spent an inordinate amount of time creating his own methodology to evaluate catcher's defense based on throwing out runners, preventing wild pitches and passed balls, throwing errors, and catching errors. Not surprisingly, the three Royals backstops fared poorly: Pena was -2.9 runs in limited playing time, Buck was -4.8 runs in more playing time, and Olivo was 113th out of 114 at -8.8 runs (thanks Mike Napoli).


Further Evidence Baseball Prospectus Is As Out of Touch As A Mike Meyers Comedy

From today's Christina Kahrl chat, following up on an answer in which she badmouths Ryan Sweeney: vegasbill (Las Vegas): UZR and BPro defense stats both have Sweeney as a pretty great...


Flooding the Market: 1B/DH-Types Abound

One development last offseason was that many good hitting but defensively challenged players – or "1B/DH-types" – found a weak market for their services and had to take contracts well below what...

Free Talent Alert


With too many outfielders and a full 40-man roster, the Rockies have designated corner outfielder Matt Murton for assignment. While no future star, Matt Murton is a nice player who can hit for average, take a walk, avoid strikeouts, hit the ball in the gaps, and play an average to slighly above average corner outfield. A right-handed hitter, he has mashed LHP (career: 306/374/483, 857 OPS) while holding his own against RHP (career: 276/340/412, 752 OPS). Only 27, he is under club control for four more years (although he may qualify for arbitration next year as a Super 2). There is not a lot of upside, but with regular playing time, he could be a league average (~2.0 WAR) player -- maybe a little more with an age 27-29 peak bump -- for near the league minimum. At the very least, he would make a very good fourth outfielder, especially for a team with two left-handed hitters starting in the corners (like say David DeJesus and Mark Teahen). And yes, a right-handed (and cheaper) Mark Teahen is a fair comparison. This would be a little move, but one that could push the Royals back in a positive direction at little cost.

Billy Butler is Average, or Fangraphs Steals Devil_Fingers' Material


R.J. Anderson of Fangraphs and D-Rays Bay takes a quick look on players who have been essentially average this year. "Borrowing" the idea from somebody else "appropriately named Devil_Fingers," he lists a few average players, some surprising (Jason Bay? Really!), some not (Mark DeRosa), based on Wins Above Replacement (WAR). The Royals' own Billy Butler gets a shout out. One player who missed the cut was Adam Dunn, who despite mashing the ball this year, is still below average because he plays awful, awful defense in both the outfield and at first base. If Dunn was a DH, however, he would actually be average to slightly above average.


More Thoughts on Davies

Davies 2009 (through May 27 start):    4.94 FIP6.33 K/9,  3.86 BB/9, 1.64 K/BB, 8.9% swinging strike rate1.23 HR/9, 11.8% HR/FB17.4% LD%, 44.4% GB%, 288 BABIP The K/BB is almost exactly his 2008...

When Is A Small Sample Size No Longer Small?


Eric Seidman at Fangraphs has a nice article summarizing research on when sample sizes become (somewhat) reliable for hitters. The research suggests that the following stats begin to stabilize with the corresponding number of plate appearances: 50 PA: Swing % 100 PA: Contact Rate 150 PA: Strikeout Rate, Line Drive Rate, Pitches/PA 200 PA: Walk Rate, Groundball Rate, GB/FB 250 PA: Flyball Rate 300 PA: Home Run Rate, HR/FB 500 PA: OBP, SLG, OPS, 1B Rate, Popup Rate 550 PA: ISO Did not stabilize by 650 PA (the cutoff): BA, BABIP The underlying work was done by a well respected analyst who goes by the handle Pizza Cutter at the Statistically Speaking blog. His research on pitchers is here.

Brayan Pena DFA'd


Or so says one of the totally legitimate rumor sites. Considering Pena historically has struggled against RHP and has a questionable defensive reputation, he might actually clear waivers. This clears a spot for the return of Jose Guillen.


So What Are K/9, BB/9, and K/BB Anyway?

Continuing with the series on explaining useful statistics as requested in the excellent For All the Dummies post, this entry looks at three key pitching statistics that both scouting and...

Kevin Goldstein Hates the Royals and Is Stupid


Baseball Prospectus (subscription may be required) ranks the Royals minor league system No. 16, only one ahead of the no-talent Seattle Mariners.

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