I think one of the hardest things to do in sports, and in life, is to shift from a moderately successful, getting-things-done mode to real excellence. The incentives are so hard. If you're already achieving enough success to get by, it is so easy to then let things drift. You're OK. You're holding your job. You're doing enough. You abide.

There are so many athletes who seem to play for payday, and who can blame them? When the salaries are so high that their lives are beyond comfortable, the temptation to go home and enjoy the fruits of that wealth must seem overwhelming at times. It takes a special effort to push beyond the level of play that guarantees continued paydays, and to truly commit to the arduous task of achieving more. Of doing the things that a championship requires.

It's a commitment we've all questioned from this team in the past.

It's a commitment that cannot be questioned this year. This is a different team. And so no matter what happens today, I am proud.

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Barring the worst stinkeroo performance that ever was a stinkeroo performance, I'm going to enjoy these playoffs by the Caps more than I've enjoyed the playoffs in years.

I approached that first post-lockout series against the Flyers a lot like I'm approaching this one. Relaxed. No expectations, just an anticipation to see what happened. And when the Caps took that better, more experienced Flyers team to Game 7, and the Caps seemed to get better as they went, they set up some expectations for the next year.

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So I'm walking to work today in San Francisco, and I pass a pretty lady sitting down at a table eating her breakfast with her hideous Penguins bag and scarf. (Why did the team ever go away from yellow and adopt that corpse-like puke-bronzish "Vegas gold" color anyway? Yellow was good enough for Lemieux. But I digress...) And I say to her, "I don't normally say this, but I'm a Caps fan, and I hope you beat the Sabres tonight." Which she loved.

So for one day, let's all set our differences aside and root wholeheartedly for your gang. Because the Caps really need this one, fellas. Put one to the Sabres, and the Caps season might just continue past game 82.

And besides, it's in your interest. In the unlikely event that either the Sabres or Caps find some way to get past the Rangers or whoever they draw, which one would you rather face later in the playoffs. I think the answer is pretty clear -- have you seen the Caps this year? Yeeesh.

Living in Northern California, I seriously think I see more Pens gear on people than Sharks gear. There's a joint here called Giordano's that feeds people these:

via giordanobros.com

So if you're in Northern California and want the next best thing to Primantis, maybe a meetup can be organized sometime. If I can make it, I will, and you can all take shots at the Caps fan.

Cheers, and Go Pens! (this offer good only tonight)

Jay Beagle's development has been one of the nicest stories of the season. By pure determination, the undrafted Beagle has turned himself, into a trusted NHL 4th liner. Just a month younger than Alex Ovechkin, Beagle has willed himself into a valuable NHL player in what is Ovechkin's seventh full NHL season.

It's a nice story. Last night, Dale Hunter turned it into a farce. At no point during last night's loss against Winnipeg did Ovechkin lead Beagle in even strength playing time.

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The legend goes that when the founder of Islam was asked to give proofs of his teaching, he ordered Mount Safa to come to him. When the mountain did not comply, Mohammed raised his hands toward heaven and said, 'God is merciful. Had it obeyed my words, it would have fallen on us to our destruction. I will therefore go to the mountain and thank God that he has had mercy on a stiff-necked generation.'

Random House Dictionary of Popular Proverbs and Sayings, courtesy of the Phrase Finder.

Bruce Boudreau is gone because he demanded that Alexander Ovechkin and Alexander Semin backcheck, and they refused.  So goes the media narrative, and though the truth is far more complicated, there's certainly something to it.  

But what if Boudreau's failing wasn't his inability to get Ovechkin and Semin to buy in?  What if the error was asking that of them at all?  What if Ovechkin and Semin know that asking them to hang back and support the defense is an ineffective use of their talents?

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Oct. 7, 2011, Former head coach Bruce Boudreau talks with Jeff Halpern after practice.  
Toni L. Sandys / via www.washingtonpost.com

It's been an emotional day.  A good man lost his job.  A legend took his place.  We'll be discussing the implications of the Caps' coaching change for days to come.  And until we truly get a sense for the playing style of a Dale-Hunter-coached NHL team (something Hunter himself may not have really defined yet), it'll be impossible to know what this change means for the organization.  

But some of the coming changes are predictable.  Here's one fan's take on the folks who stand to gain or lose from this change.

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Defenders of fighting in the NHL often explain that fighting is necessary to police the actions of players on the ice according to "the Code." 

Folks, "the Code" is broken.  It has been for years.  And the defenders of fighting are doing fighting a disservice by tying it to something as inconsistent, hypocritical, and downright unjust as "the Code."  "The Code" is going to be the death of fighting in the NHL one day if it isn't reformed, or if we don't start treating fighting as what it has become: fan entertainment divorced from any actual value to wins and losses on the ice.

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Expect to see more of this thanks to Tom Poti

The last few days have brought news about Tom Poti.  No, not that his groin injury renders him unable to play -- that's hardly news.  I'm talking about the news of how the team is going to handle his absence.  And it looks like they've elected the LTIR route, which is probably the worst of the available options.  One man, though, ought to celebrate the decision:  DJ King.

Of course, nobody ever celebrates a teammate's injury.  But the financial effects of Poti's injury and of how the team plans to deal with it may really benefit King.  The reason has to do with the salary cap.  This year, no team can spend more than $64,300,000 of salary cap dollars.  There are a few exceptions to the rule, and one is the Long Term Injured Reserve rule, which permits a team to exceed the cap by the prorated salary cap dollars of any player put on LTIR.  Assuming, as we all expect, that Poti will miss the whole season, that means the Caps can spend a maximum of up to $2,875,000 over the cap. 

What it doesn't mean is that Poti doesn't count against the cap.  There's a major distinction there versus being under the cap, and it's the fact that cap space above the cap limit cannot be banked.  If you don't spend all of Poti's salary above the cap in a given day, you don't get to spend it later.  LTIR relief is use-it-or-lose-it.  No matter how far above the cap you are on any given day, the effect is the same -- you're treated as though you spent to the maximum of the cap.

And that brings me to King.  If the Caps were under the salary cap, they would have a decision to make.  King's cap hit is $637,500.  They could carry King, or they could be an extra $637,500 under the cap.  If they didn't carry him, then by the trade deadline 3/4 of the way through the season, they could use King's cap space to acquire about $2 Million in salary.  (By the trade deadline, the team would have saved 3/4 of that $637,500, which is $478,125 extra dollars under the cap.  A player with a $1,900,000 would have already been paid $1,425,000 by his original team by then, and would have about $475,000 to go, which could be paid for by the savings from not carrying King up to that point.)

You have to think that it'd be very tempting for McPhee to send King to the AHL and free up an extra $2,000,000 for late-season player acquisitions.  But because of Poti, that won't be an option.  The Caps won't be banking any salary cap space this year as long as Poti's on LTIR.  So the only decision with respect to King will be whether the Caps want to be about $1,000,000 above the cap or $1,637,500 above the cap on any given day.  And since LTIR is use-it-or-lose-it, there's no real reason to pick one versus the other.  Might as well carry King.

So DJ King may have Tom Poti's brittle groin to thank for his job.  The rest of us can blame Tom Poti's contract for the Caps' options being very limited come the trade deadline.  I hope the team McPhee has put together this September is good enough, because there may not be much opportunity to upgrade as long as Tom Poti's on LTIR.

In the past week, the Caps have signed four free agents and acquired another roster player by trade.  They're not over the salary cap yet, but they likely will be before too long.  There is a 10% "cushion" that permits a team to go over the salary cap during the offseason, but once the season starts, the NHL won't let a team play any games if it's above the salary cap .  So how can the Capitals get under the salary cap by opening night?

There have been a lot of Capgeek rosters flying the last couple of days, but I think this one is a good starting point.  It includes only (a) the Young Guns plus Johansson, Alzner, Carlson, and Neuvirth, (b) players who have been acquired or have signed new contracts in the last 12 months, minus Tom Poti, and (c) John Erskine.

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A little more than a year ago, I wrote a Fanpost with a proposal for realignment.  Now that the Thrashers' move to Winnipeg has forced the NHL's hand, and the league has disclosed that it is looking into having four divisions again, I thought it might make sense to take a second look.

Here were my guiding principles:

I believe the biggest problem with the current setup (apart from losing those historic names) is that many natural rivalries have been broken up -- some before they were ever allowed to get started.  My philosophy is that cities that have something in common should be together in the same division, whenever possible.  As a Caps fan, I am obviously particularly sensitive to this.  Good rivalries should be the #1 consideration in any divisional structure.

But rivalries are not the only consideration.  Travel is not just very expensive -- it's a competitive concern.  Western Conference teams spend many more days on the road and many more hours in the air than Eastern Conference teams, and these extra burdens can have an effect on the standings. 

And here was my proposal, now with Winnipeg now in place of Atlanta:

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In 1990, Abe Pollin was unprepared to pay any player more than $1,000,000 a year.  Now a consistently above-average forward can be guaranteed $27,000,000 over six years.

If I could buy stock in the NHL, I would. 

Last year, leaguewide revenues increased enough to lead to a nearly $4 Million rise in next year's salary cap, from $59.4 Million to $64.3 Million.  Since players get about 57 cents of every dollar of NHL revenues, that reflects an average increase in revenues of about $8.8 Million per team, or roughly $260 Million for the entire league.  And that rise happened in a year in which many teams had serious financial difficulties.  One team – the Thrashers – could not survive its troubles.  The Dallas Stars were sold in bankruptcy, and the multiyear bankruptcy saga of the Phoenix Coyotes continued.  Add in the New York Islanders, and that’s four teams (13% of the league) with severe problems. 

The coming years look brighter for at least three of those troubled franchises.  The Stars have been sold and are ready to focus on hockey again.  The ultimate wisdom of moving the Thrashers to Winnipeg has yet to be determined, but at a minimum a team with committed owners and an excited fanbase in Winnipeg is better for the NHL than the hot mess in Atlanta the last few years.  It seems very likely that the Phoenix saga will be resolved, one way or another, by this time next year.  The Islanders problem seems more intractable – it’ll be 2015 before the Islanders can move if no new arena is built – but even that issue has a clear end date.  And the NHL may have suitors in Quebec City, Kansas City, and the Greater Toronto (Hamilton) area who are ready to purchase a team.  Those ownership groups might scoop up the Coyotes or Islanders if things don't improve, or, as the upcoming shift to 4 divisions suggests (since 30 ain’t divisible by 4, but 32 is), perhaps the NHL may expand in the near future.  It's certainly hard to imagine that we'll be talking about so many bankruptcies and such in a couple of years.

And the outlook is good for the league as a whole.  The NHL has a hit on its hands with the Winter Classic, buoyed by College Football’s inexplicable decision to surrender January 1st.  The league has a new TV deal worth an additional $120 Million dollars per year over the previous deal.  That’s $4 per team, or a projected $2+ Million increase in the salary cap.  And unless the NFL and its players get smart in a hurry and resolve their labor dispute, the NHL might attract its share of disappointed and bored football fans this season.

Over the next few years, the salary cap is going to go up my friends.  And I think it’s going to go up a lot, especially next year when the TV contract kicks in.

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The logic of the offseason can be a bit roundabout.

This past season, the Caps' biggest problem was offense.  They scored 2.67 goals per game, which put them at a poor #19 in the league, a far cry from their #1 ranking the previous year.  (They were a much better 2.33 in goals against per game, which put them at #4 in the league.)  Now, in the offseason, it appears to many of us that the best way for the Caps to improve their offense is to sign a center who will put defense first and who can take the load off of Nick Backstrom, allowing Backstrom to once again focus on putting the puck in the net.  But that's the shape of things, and finding that 3rd line center presents itself as the Caps' main priority.

There's been talk of acquiring Marty Reasoner in these parts, of signing Marcel Goc, and of some other names (even including Brooks Laich), but a name I haven't seen suggested much is Michael Handzus.  I think Handzus might be the best option of the bunch.

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This Fanpost presents a new stat:  Goal Asymmetry Experienced by Team Above Normal.  Here's GAETAN in two sentences: 

GAETAN tells us how many more or fewer goals a player's team scored and allowed while he was on the ice than we would have expected from an average player.  To calculate GAETAN, we first determine how many goals for and goals against would have occurred while an average player played the same number of minutes as a particular player, and then we compare those numbers to the actual goals for and goals against that occurred while the particular player was on the ice. 

All of the numbers are available in this spreadsheet.

GAETAN is essentially a reworking of plus/minus.  ("Goal asymmetry experienced by team" is another way of saying "plus/minus" - it's the difference between a team's goals for and goals against while a player is on the ice).  The stat is named after the late Gaetan Duchesne, a solid 2-way forward whose +68 rating in his career as a Capital ranks ninth among team leaders, and whose career +102 rating makes him #188 all time.  To this day, Duchesne, Doug Jarvis, and Bobby Gould may be the best line of defensive forwards the Caps ever iced.

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The Ducks' brutal path to glory is unavailable to the Caps, who will have to carve their own road if they hope to achieve their goal.

The New York Rangers tried, for the first two games of their 2011 first round series, to outplay the Washington Capitals.  The result for the Rangers was an overtime loss and a 2-0 shutout.  Although the margins of victory were thin, it became clear that the Rangers simply lack the depth of talent that the Caps possess. 

As the games shifted to New York for Games 3 and 4, John Tortorella made an important determination: playing skill hockey wasn't going to work.  Since the Rangers couldn't elevate their play to the Caps' level, they would need to lower the Caps' level of play down to their own.  And that meant shifting the roles and focus of his players.  The table that follows the jump illustrates the adjustments Tortorella made by showing who the TOI winners and losers have been for both teams in games 3 and 4 versus games 1 and 2.

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Marc Staal had a tough game last night.  He skated 33:48 and was on the ice for both Caps goals -- his bad clear was the cause of the OT game winner. If you remember from How Jason Chimera Scored A Goal From The Penalty Box, coaches try to keep shift length at about 45 seconds and to keep players at a ratio of two shifts off for every one shift on.  Staal’s average shift length was 55 seconds -- a little high but not too bad.  But he averaged only 1:20 of gametime on the bench between shifts.

After the jump, you can see how Staal’s night compared shift-by-shift to Caps' defensive TOI leader last night: Scott Hannan.  Hannan skated 28:39, with an average shift length of 52 seconds and an average of 1:36 between shifts.  That latter number, to me, is the crucial one.  Those 16 extra seconds of rest before every shift can make a huge difference.  In the table below, every break between shifts of less than 1:30 is in bold, and every break of less than 1:00 is in blue (the links don't go anywhere).

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It’s a picture of the blog on which the picture is hosted.  Whoa.  Meta.

On a day in which no news was expected (more on that below), the Rink put up a dizzying amount of content, with contributors battling against members to see who would generate the most.  And though the Contributors came away with the most postings, it turned out to be a close battle. 

Ten notes on the day:

• The contributors, led by team captain JP, started the day with a solid gameplan of posting at least one new message every hour.  Following the Clips at 6:37, JP managed to post his take on John Calder-son at 10:00, Ups and Downs at 11:00, the Nooner at noon (duh), a breakdown of Caps/Rangers fisticuffs at 1:00, and an introduction to Brian Boyle at 2:00. 
• Of course, opportunism is a critical element of success on a day like today, and the Contributors took advantage of their opportunities, posting the surprise news of Mike Knuble’s extension.  They also found room for the second Caps Rap and what passes for sharp words from the Washington Post beat writer. 
• The Members fell behind early (because really, who’s going to compete with JP to post something at about 6:37 in the morning?)  Their only morning contribution was a 1500+ word analysis of some statistic Gould Old Days made up two years ago.  It’s not clear whether Gouldie thought he was going to make up ground through sheer wordiness.  Perhaps he’d have been better off posting it as a serial.
• The Members definitely made their presence felt in the afternoon, with three fanposts and two fanshots.  It was a strong comeback, but ultimately they couldn’t match the discipline and creativity shown by the Contributors, and they fell short (even before JP posted an insurance fanshot about Alan May).
• The Caps’ youth movement was a major theme for the day, forming the basis for nice fanposts by j762 and psuscott1 as well as JP’s Carlson writeup.
• It was a day of recycled content – Professor Bradley would be proud.  The contributors redid their breakdown of Caps/Rangers fights from two years ago.  The fanshots by Gouldie and psuscott1 were updating previous analyses – psuscott1 wrote his earlier this season, Gouldie’s was a moldy two years old.  The most welcome return of an old friend was SombreroGuy’s Operation Poncho 2.0.   The prospect of around 300 ponchos in the stands surrounding John Tortorella is truly epic.
• Alex Semin was completely invisible on the day.  It’s like he wasn’t even here.
• A good deal solid content appeared in the comments sections, highlighted by Elliotte's excellent comment in the Ups and Downs.  Elliotte says he’s planning to turn it into a fanpost.  I'm sure planning to rec’ it when it comes up.  No doubt it’ll be a great read.
• The OT thread put up a relatively subdued 240ish comments, below their season average.  Perhaps it was hard to find when other content knocked it off the front page.
• Another day like this, and employers around the DC area will probably ban the site.  By one estimate that is based on absolutely no information at all, Japers’ Rink cost the region $2.2 Million in worker productivity today. 

In sum, plenty of information was dropped on 4-11.  The total count was 17 substantive posts and 1300+ comments.  Overall, the day gave a sense of tension released through writing.  The 2011 playoffs have been a long year in coming, and now they seem suddenly upon us.  One thing is certain:  it will be hard for the Rink – Contributors or Members – to keep up today’s frenetic pace. 

The big winners, of course, were all of us who got to read all that good stuff.  And a special thank you is due to the folks who designed the SBNation platform, which makes posting articles and comments so easy and satisfying.

Bobby Orr needs no introduction.  Neither does that thing he's holding.

.571.  That is the minimum winning percentage a team must sustain through each round of the Stanley Cup playoffs to earn the championship. They have to win four games in every seven game series.  Seems simple enough, but of course only one team can possibly accomplish this feat four consecutive times and bring home the glory.  Consistency is the key.  Any misstep that lasts more than a game or two could be fatal.

Consistency can be a tough trait to measure, but the playoff format itself suggests a way to determine which teams have been the most consistent through the regular season.  If you think of an 82-game season as 76 rolling groups of seven games (games 1-7, games 2-8, games 3-9, games 4-10, etc.), then one test of a team's consistency is how many times it achieved .571 or better during those groups of seven games.  How many times did the team win at least four out of seven?  How many times did it lose four or more?  Let's start by looking at the Eastern Conference. 

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Let's have a frank discussion about one of the Caps' best defensive defensemen, shall we?

Look, I know that he hasn't always put his own end first.  I know he's had some rough playoff series.  Mike Green is an easy guy to pile on.  But he has also been, in 2011-12 2010-11 [oops], an outstanding defensive defenseman.  And his return can't come soon enough. 

Here are some of the basic numbers (minimum 8 games -- sorry, Fahey and Collins):

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There was a time I lived and died with the Orioles.

Seems like a long time ago.

My brother's old enough to remember the ecstasy of 1983, but I'm not.  I had to hear about it from him all through growing up.  But I do remember Mike Deveraux as a rookie, and I remember when my favorite player was a catcher who ate Froot Loops, and I remember asking "Why Not" in 1989, so that'll help y'all place me in the Orioles timeline.

My first serious relationship in high school was based in large part on both of us being Orioles fans.  I'm not sure how I could have followed the team any more closely back then.

But then the Orioles jettisoned Jon Miller, and tossed Davey Johnson aside, and Rex Barney died.  I moved away, and Ripken retired, and my connections to the team faded until I stopped following baseball altogether.  Brian Roberts is about all I recognize now, and he's become an old man in baseball years.

I live in San Francisco now, and the joy of Giants fans last year was something truly magical.  (Doesn't hurt that they wear the right colors for a baseball team)  I've tried to follow the Giants, or the A's, or the Nats when I lived in DC, but it just ain't right.  It's Orioles or nothing for me.  And given those two options, I've picked "nothing" for many years.

So is this the year I should come back into the fold?  I'm not looking for a World Series here, just hope.  Just the knowledge that the team stands a chance to win any one game.  Just a team that isn't painful to watch, so I can enjoy the joy of baseball again. I'm not even asking for a .500 record.  But if they're not going to win more than they lose, at least they should have good young players who are learning how to win and who are learning lessons that might, if everything goes right, help the team win its next World Series.

Good things happen when you drive the net.  Sometimes, they just take longer than you'd expect. 

With about 40 seconds left in the 2nd period of yesterday's game against the Blackhawks, Jason Chimera had himself a bit of a breakaway, streaking wide down the right side. Chimera scored a goal with that play, but the goal took seven minutes of game time and more than half an hour of real life to show up on the scoreboard.

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A love note from Don Fishman...

Yesterday involved some complex salary cap shenanigans, so I thought it might make sense to have one thread for people to post questions about what happened and how it all worked.  That'll make the answers easier to find the next time we're all looking for them.  Hopefully, we can use everyone's combined knowledge to get a better handle on it all.  So if you're wondering why the Caps didn't put anyone on LTIR until yesterday, or whether they'll need to keep someone on LTIR all season, post your question here.

The average shift in the NHL should be less than a minute.  What does a team get for its minute of ice time?  How much is that worth? Here's a look at the Caps' salaries per minute of ice time at the eve of the trade deadline.

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