As the Phillies offense limps out of the gate, the calls for Domonic Brown's return will no doubt come soon. And although the Phillies never mentioned it publicly (they really are not allowed to), I think they sent Brown back to AAA partly to scrape an extra year of team control out of Brown.

A quick review of how service time and team control work:

• Players accrue a day of service every day they are on the active roster or major-league disabled list.
• Players can accrue up to, but no more than, 172 days of service in one season. For MLB's accounting, 172 days equals one season of service. There are typically about 182 calendar days in the regular season.
• Players are eligible for arbitration at the conclusion of the first season where their service clock runs over three seasons. The exception is Super Two players, who get an extra year of arbitration.
• Players are eligible for free agency at the end of the first season where their service clock runs over 6 full seasons (long-term deals and options aside).

Brown finished last year with 1 year and 13 days of service time, meaning he needs another 159 days in the bigs to clear 2 full years of service. The 2012 season ends on October 3rd, meaning Brown needs to be in the major leagues by no later than April 28th to achieve 159 days of service time.

Consider we are already 9 days away from that date, and there has been nary a whisper from the Phillies front office of bringing Brown back into the fold, it is almost a lock that they are going to squeeze an extra year of team control out of the 24-year-old former top prospect. Brown most likely won't be a free agent until after the 2017 season.

As for Super Two status, which Brown could hypothetically achieve after the 2013 season? MLB Trade Rumors has 2 years and 134 days as the projected cutoff number for Super Twos after this season, which is down from the 2.147 cutoff last year. The cutoff has generally been trending down because of teams gaming service clocks by delaying the promotions of top prospects.

Let's say Brown could become a Super Two after 2013 if he gets to 2 years and 130 days by then, and let's further assume he is a full time player in 2013. He would need 117 days of service this season to get to 1.130, which puts his latest possible arrival date for eventual Super Two status as June 9th.

Of course, the Phillies haven't mentioned holding Brown back for service reasons publicly. They have maintained he needs to work on his defense (which is very true) and they have not put any kind of expected return date out. And no one has speculated about it, until I just did. Even if they didn't evaluate service time considerations at all when making the decision to pack Brown back to the minors, the implications are positive for the long-term.

To summarize:

• Brown comes up after April 28th: extra year of team control
• Brown comes up after June 9th: likely no Super Two status after 2013 season

Whether on purpose or not, the Phillies have successfully extended their control over a very valuable asset, and they have likely saved themselves some money at the same time.

After what looked like a disastrous semifinal round last night, Cael's boys bounced back with an incredible Sunday. A 13-2 record sealed the deal, as the Nits picked up three champs (Molinaro, Taylor, Ruth), three third-placers (Wright, Alton, Wade), two fifth-placers (Megaludis, McIntosh), and two seventh placers (Pearsall, Martelotti). PSU has claimed 9 automatic bids to NCAAs, and Pearsall is alive for an at-large bid.

Molinaro: co-Most Outstanding Wrestler

Taylor: Wrestler of the Year

Sanderson: Coach of the Year

WOOOOOOO

Dan Szymborski's full 2012 ZiPS projections came out just last week. Let's have a look at what the vaunted projection system sees in store for the 2012 edition of the Fightins after the jump.

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In light of Cole Hamels recently signing a one-year, $15 million contract for his last year of team control, attention now turns to whether the Phillies can bring back their homegrown ace long-term. At the same time that the Fightins will need to deal with Hamels, their two best (and youngest) position players will also require attention. Shane Victorino will finish his team-friendly 3-year deal in October, and Hunter Pence will be one year from free agency, with the ability to command about $15 million in his final year of arbitration. Together, the three figure to account for at least $50 million in salary obligations for 2013 -- a number the Phillies are unlikely to pay.

The question then becomes: who of these three will sport red pinstripes in 2013? Let's assume the Mayan calander is incorrect, and there actually be a 2013.

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via phillysportscentral.com

Edit: I bolded what I consider to be the primary reason NOT to put Worley in the 'pen - at least for now. As PhillyFriar notes, come late August/early September, it's a different story.

On the heels of another excellent Vance Worley start tonight, there will no doubt be calls for Vance Gogh to stay with the big club and move into the bullpen when Joe Blanton returns from the DL. While there is no doubt Vance could be effective out of the bullpen, and would probably be ready for a high-leverage role immediately, I posit that he should go back to Lehigh Valley until the need for a 6th starter arises again. More on why, and my thoughts on bullpen composition, after the jump:

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Editor's Note: Front-paged. Nice work! - WC

Luke Adams over at MLBTR put up a story earlier today describing the Josh Willingham situation brewing in DC; mainly, that he would like an extension going into his final arbitration season but is unlikely to get it from the Nationals. The story also hypothesizes that the Nats will attempt to move Willingham during the offseason and that several teams have already asked about the righty's availability.

I believe Willingham is the single best option available at this time for the Phillies to plug the impending Jayson Werth-sized hole in their lineup from a production and cost standpoint.

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Sergei Bobrovsky is starting his 11th game in a row tonight, as well as both games of a back-to-back. We all remember last year when Lavy rode goalies into the ground, especially Michael Leighton in the spring when Boucher was available on the bench and Ray Emery immediately after he returned from injury.

Given Bob's youth and incredible upside, is it wise to be putting him out there every single night? He is a MAJOR part of the team's future and it seems that investment ought to be protected to an extent.

Or maybe I just forget what it's like to have a real live number 1 goaltender?

Considering that WAR has quickly become the handy, one-stop shop for comparing player values, I thought it might be fun to see how the Phils are impacted by the combination of a Werth-less lineup (see what I did there) and a full season of Roy Oswalt.

Read after the jump for fun with WAR.

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The Phillies payroll sits at $143 million for 2011 with Durbin and Francisco (and obviously Werth) unsigned. Anticipating that Contreras will leave via free agency, Durbin will be signed for another couple years by the team, Francisco will be offered arbitration and Kendrick will be non-tendered, let's figure on about 4.5 million between the two, which puts the team at 147.5 million with a big hole in RF and a few spots to fill on the bench.

Clearly the Phillies are going to have to go get a right-handed bat with some pop (Manny Ramirez? Magglio Ordonez?). Even projecting them for a payroll of $150 million means they will need to clear some salary in order to do that.

The way I see it, the three most likely pieces to be moved are Victorino, Ibanez, and Blanton.

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The purpose of this post is just that. I recall most thought JayPa was truly the most atrocious QB coach in the land during the QB14 years. What now? Let's look at his recent body of work, with the exception of the 06/07 debacle.

MRob, 05: 127 QB rating, 52% completions, 17/10 TD/INT, 196 yards per game

Clark, 08: 143 rating, 59% completions, 19/6 ratio, 199 yards p/game

Devlin, 08: 163 rating, 53% completions, 4/0 ratio, 46 yards p/game

Clark, 09: 142 rating, 61% completions, 24/10 ratio, 231 p/game

Combine this with a strong debut by a true freshman who's been in the program since May, and maybe we can admit that he can coach the position a little bit.

I'm mostly interested in hearing your opinion...

Something I realized looking at Cot's Contracts is that Kyle Kendrick is  headed to arbitration this winter as a Super Two, meaning he's in for a not insubstantial raise.

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I've developed a curiosity in the last few years related to how a team's offense performs according to the pitcher on the mound. I first noticed this trend when Roger Clemens was pitching for the Astros and putting up dominant start after dominant start. However, he had no wins to show for it because the team never scored for him.

I posit that teams tend to score more runs when their less effective starting pitchers are on the mound. The cause(s) could be any of several possibilities.

-First, that teams somehow have a different, more focused approach to hitting with bad pitchers on the mound for them, because they know they'll need more runs. (sounds like something Joe Morgan might say. blech.)

-Second, that Team A's crappy pitchers tend to be matched up against the crappy pitchers for any Team X (possible/likely, but I don't know how to research this)

-Simple luck (also possible/likely)

On the heels of last night's game, with the Phillies scoring 12 for Kyle Kendrick, I decided to take a look at the Phillies numbers.

Runs scored for Phillies starting pitchers (FIP in parentheses):

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So the Phils have unloaded a trio of three-year deals in the past few days on Joe Blanton, Shane Victorino and Carlos Ruiz. While the three players earned the money with their play in the last two years, and the front office has achieved cost certainty into 2011 and 2012, there's a good chance the team will look tremendously different when the three are heading into 2012, the final year of their contracts. Let's take a look, after the jump.

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While many of us were bashing our brains in over the remarkable suckitude of the basketball team, that OTHER team was putting a hurtin' on ye olde Fighting Illini of Illinois. The most remarkable part was that the two most questionable weights for Penn State picked up the two biggest wins, as 133-pounder Bryan Pearsall held on for a rollicking 13-12 decision of Illinois' Daryl Thomas and 141-pounder Adam Lynch decked 11th-ranked Ryan Prater in the second period. The Lions cruised from there and won the dual 24-11.

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I don't recall this getting any juice on here when Sickels originally posted it, so I thought I'd throw it up now. Dom Brown is the choice at number 1 followed by Trevor May and Phillippe Aumont. Sickels ranks J.C. Ramirez fourth in the system and Tyson Gillies eighth. More after the jump.

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Now that a decision has been made to cut Pete Happy loose, at least for the time being, the major question of this offseason has become what Amaro will do to fill the hole at the hot corner.

Basically, it boils down to this: Get an upper-level free agent to play everyday, get a platoon bat to go with Greg Dobbs, or trade prospects for an Alex Gordon type or a true upper-tier third baseman.

Thoughts after the jump.

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I'm not sure how many of you read smartfootball.com, the essential football strategy site run by Chris Brown, but you should. Chris is a maestro of football strategy and is a fantastic read, no matter your knowledge level. He frequently breaks down different offenses/defenses/plays that are either effective or popular. While he tends to focus on schemes that are trendy (i.e. Paul Johnson flexbone, spread option variants, the evolving spread shotgun triple option, Wildcat plays) he stuck with the Blue and White for his most recent piece over at Dr. Saturday.

What does Chris have to say about Dear Old State's defense?

Well, mostly that we play a lot of Cover 3, and we are very good at it.

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The air smells a little sweeter in Pennsylvania right now, and I think I know why.

While some less-enlightened folk point to the arrival of spring, I sadly shake my head in disagreement. What's really happening is the coronation of the newest king of the Phillies. King Lou is here, and he is not leaving (hopefully).

Just for fun, let's take a look at his numbers and projections, as well as how they stack up against the lovable Chooch, best known for his prowess at blocking Lidge sliders in the dirt and GIDPs.

Marson:

2007 (A+): .373 OBP, .120 ISO, .346 BABIP, 11.7% BB, 20.4% K, 28.3% XBH

2008 (AA): .433 OBP, .102 ISO, .389 BABIP, 17.4% BB, 21.7% K, 22.8% XBH

2009 (MLB Bill James-171 AB): .392 OBP, .106 ISO, .362 BABIP, 14.1% BB, 22.2% K, 24% XBH

Now, James' numbers are a little high, but the other FanGraphs projections all have him in the ballpark of a .350 OBP. (CHONE-.348, Marcel-.353, Oliver-.347, ZiPS-.336)

Let's examine these numbers a little bit. You can probably attribute the insane 2008 OBP to the huge BABIP, but his walks increased substantially and his strikeouts stayed almost flat as he made the biggest jump in the minors. That is more than just a small deal...it is a big heap of hitting skill. The power, as shown by the painfully bad ISO, is a concern...but my feelings on his power are:

(1) It will come with time. As he gets older and stronger, his bat speed will improve, resulting in more distance off the bat.

(2) Even if it doesn't come, he's proven he's such a skilled hitter he can be a valuable basepath-clogger even if he only ever hits singles.

James thinks his power will increase a tad, but is still projecting a very high BABIP. This probably stems from Marson's swing -- he is a true line drive hitter who sprays to all fields and doesn't elevate the ball frequently. It's possible the power could come as he gets stronger and improves his bat speed, a la Chase Utley, but he will still be valuable without double digit home run power. That's because the Phillies currently run this guy out there:

Ruiz:

career (MLB): .329 OBP, .116 ISO, .263 BABIP, 10.6% BB, 12.3% K, 32.4% XBH, 49.9% GB, 77 OPS+

This is not to bash away at Carlos. He's a wonderful backstop, and I would love to see the Phils keep him around as a backup as long as he's affordable (since his original signing bonus was $8,000, he's been the ultimate bargain ballplayer). He is great on defense, blocks the plate well, hustles his butt off and is an all-around good guy (and he gets dirt on his uniform, which gives Bill Plaschke a massive erection). But he is simply not a good offensive player.

While his awful average last year was partially because of an outrageously low .237 BABIP, the fact that his career number in that department is .263 means it wasn't that fluky.

And we all know why it wasn't THAT fluky: a career groundball rate of 1/2. That means a lot of outs, some singles, and a home run every once in a while. His OPS+ is far below league average, and I imagine it is in the neighborhood of replacement level for his career

As far as defense goes, Ruiz is one of the best, but Marson is said to be no slouch. He is an excellent natural athlete, and the scouting reports indicate he is at least average with room to improve. He also threw out 35% of basestealers last year, a good sign.

Conclusion:

With an aging, strikeout-prone lineup, the Phils are in desperate need of some semblance of offense from the catcher spot. Marson is a patient hitter (with possibly developing power) who is on base frequently who will give the Phightins more than league average offense from the 8-hole. I think his ceiling is Kendall-esque if he doesn't develop power, and Martin- or McCann-esque if he does. All in all, I'm excited what he can do over the next couple of weeks.

So after all that buzz about teh OMGz Hurricanez, it's Flyers-Pens in Round 1. All that remains to be decided is where the series will start.

The good guys and the bad guys are currently tied in the standings with 99 points, but the Pens have more victories and thus the tiebreaker if things don't change.

All the Flyers have to do is scratch out a measly point (or two) against the Rangers today to snare home ice. Just a point. And it would be great if Martin Biron inspired some confidence along the way.

Either way, expect an absolute Pennsylvania brawl in this series. The Pens dominated the regular season matchup, but I would expect no less than 7 games from these two teams.

I think the series comes down to who can defend (as it always does). The Orange and Black roll out the deepest 3 lines in the league, the Pens have Crosby, Malkin and the spark of Guerin, and both sides have major questions defensively.

If Parent/Timmonen and Coburn/Carle can keep the Dynamic Duo from slicing the Flyers up, I think it's on to the conference semifinals. Otherwise, hello Aronimink.

Sam Carchidi is reporting that Holmgren signed David Sloane, a recent Colgate grad, to fill in for Ryan Parent tonight.

The Flyers signed 6-foot-4, 220-pound David Sloane, an Ambler native, to an amateur tryout under emergency conditions and said he would be in the lineup tonight against the host New York Rangers.

...

Under emergency conditions of an amateur tryout, Sloane is available to play for a 24-hour period beginning with tonight's game.

It was unclear this afternoon why Flyers general manager Paul Holmgren chose to use Sloane instead of calling up a player from the Phantoms. Earlier in the week, Holmgren said Danny Syvret might be used if Parent could not play. Holmgren could not be reached for comment.

"I just want to keep it simple and play my game," Sloane said. "I want to get the butterflies out early, which I am sure there will be plenty of."

Sloane also signed an amateur tryout with the Phantoms on March 17, but has yet to appear in a game for the Flyers' AHL affiliate.

...

 

Sloane said he was "thankful for this opportunity. Just throwing the Flyers uniform on and playing at a place like Madison Square Garden has been a dream of mine my whole life."

So he wasn't good enough to get on the ice for the Phantoms, but he's a better option than Syvret to play for the flyers? too bad Sbisa won't fit under the cap.

Should be interesting to watch this guy play tonight, that's for sure.

Top prospect James van Riemsdyk is making his 2nd annual campaign to annoy the hell out of Paul Holmgren.

The 6-3, 19-year-old left-winger just finished his sophomore year at UNH. He scored 17 goals and added 23 assists in 36 regular season games for the Wildcats.

The Flyers are trying to get him on a tryout contract with the Phantoms for the rest of the season. This dance happened last year, and JVR made a very rare move (and ticked Homer off) by choosing to go back to school.

Van Riemsdyk was the Flyer's first pick in the 2007 entry draft and the second pick overall.

"I have spoken a couple of times with his adviser," Holmgren said. "We're still just kind of talking.

"I'm not sure which way this is going to go. [University of New Hampshire] lost and James needs to make a decision whether he wants to leave school or not, and that's kind of what we're talking about right now.

"He's still doing some soul-searching, would be the way to put it right now. I've not talked to James. I've just spoken to his adviser."

On one hand, college is awesome. Especially when it's paid for and you get to be the man every day and be on a varsity athletic team and get mad perks, jersey chasing girls and free gear.

On the other hand, the Flyers are prepared to pay this kid a lot of money, and by a lot of accounts he could be an impact NHL player VERY soon. I would like to see him come out now. It would really be beneficial for him to get in the developmental time at a much higher level of hockey with better, more skilled players. Cheap talent would be really helpful for the Orange and Black next year as they once again fight the cap.

The article also mentions Luca Sbisa will return once Lethbridge's season is over. They are currently in the WHL playoffs. Will the Flyers be able to fit him under the cap?

There are some major question marks on defense in 2009 as well, specifically in the secondary. All 4 starters are out of eligibility, and only Astorino and Wallace are known commodities who will be back in 09. But the front 7 could be all-time PSU-great, if Maybin, Evans, and Odrick don't go the NFL Bowman is eligible for the draft as well, but he should return.

Let's take a look:

RE: Project Mayhem, hopefully

1. Aaron Maybin - very little needs to be said about him.

2. Kevion Latham - have heard good things about him, and Lattimore and Crawford could also see time.

DT: All set

1. Jared Odrick - dominant

2. Abe Koroma - solid

3. Ollie Ogbu - solid

4. Brandon Ware - He's been unblockable some times as a NG on the foreign team, but he needs to shed a few pounds to please Joe.

note: Devon Still is an x-factor here. He could play anywhere on the D-line, or he could shift to offensive tackle.

LE:

1. Maurice Evans - if he doesn't go to the draft, he could be lined up for a monster year in '09 if he keeps his head screwed on straight.

2. Jack Crawford - Impressive for a true freshman to be thrown into the fray on an LJSr. d-line.

WLB:

1. Mike Mauti/Nate Stupar - these 2 seem like the logical contenders for this spot. Both played excellent on special teams, and seem primed for a spring battle. I favor Stupar, with the possibility that Mauti becomes the top backup for both OLB spots.

2. See above, also Yancich or Andrew Dailey

MLB:

1. Sean Lee - His return could be huge to the PSU defense. It will have been almost 18 months since the injury when the '09 season kicks off, so he should be ready to go.

2. Josh Hull/Chris Colasanti - Given Colasanti's obvious physical gifts, he should have been playing a lot this year. What's going on with #53?

SLB:

1. Big Game Bowman - Our most explosive LB since LaVar.

2. Bani Gbadyu/Yancich/Andrew Dailey - who knows how this shakes out?

CB: a potential disaster zone

1. AJ Wallace - 2009 would be a good time to start playing like a 5-star recruit.

2. Chaz Powell - it seems our need here is greater than at wideout, thus he could move back to his original position.

3. Darrell Givens - hopefully he's ready to contribute

4. Stephon Morris - he is supposedly a natural cover man, so if he's ready he could play

Knowledge Timmons also may figure in the mix here, but he's never really converted that track speed to football success

FS: ?

1. D'Anton Lynn - He's supposedly a natural safety, so this seems a logical spot with Scirrotto's graduation.

2. Malcolm Willis? Knowledge Timmons?

SS: a little better

1. Drew Astorino - really impressed this year, should slide in nicely

2. ??? maybe Bani sees some snaps here, in Rubin's 4th LB role? Maybe Timmons

K - Anthony Fera

P - Jeremy Boone

PR - Devon Smith

KR - Chaz Powell, Stephfon Green

In summary, you have to feel great about our chances of stopping the run. The front 7 is downright loaded. They will need to get great push on passing downs, because the secondary could be a serious adventure.