SB Nation User Blog: Governator

What To Do At Third Base?

Governator — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 04:00:11 -0000

Now that a decision has been made to cut Pete Happy loose, at least for the time being, the major question of this offseason has become what Amaro will do to fill the hole at the hot corner.

Basically, it boils down to this: Get an upper-level free agent to play everyday, get a platoon bat to go with Greg Dobbs, or trade prospects for an Alex Gordon type or a true upper-tier third baseman.

Thoughts after the jump.

Free agent possibilities:

Mark DeRosa (Type B, age 34) - .250/.319/.433 for CLE/STL in 2009. OPS+ of 100. Down year. Generally OPSed around .800 as a starter prior to this year. Wrist surgery in late October. Attended UPenn. Most likely solution; has been linked to Phillies before.

Chone Figgins (Type A, age 31) - .298/.395/.393 for ANA in 2009. OPS+ of 108 with 42 SB/17 CS. top free agent third baseman. viewed as excellent defender. Hasn't been much noise that the Phils have interest here. Would be a true top of the order hitter, allowing either Rollins or Victorino to move to the seven-hole.

Adrian Beltre (no compensation, age 30) - .265/.304/.379 for SEA in 2009. career avg OPS+ of 105. Gold Glove in AL in 07 and 08. consistent 25-HR power throughout career. only 477 ABs this year due to injuries. would come cheaper than Figgins and be an upgrade over Feliz if healthy. not as patient a hitter as DeRosa or Figgins.

Joe Crede and Troy Glaus have both been mentioned, but Crede posted a miserable OPS+ of 83 last year and Glaus was hurt the whole year.

If healthy, Glaus could be the best option, with a career triple slash line of .255/.359/.497 for a career OPS+ of 121. Age is a concern as well, as next year will be his age 33 season.

Trade possibilities:

Alex Gordon (age 25, KC) - triple slash of .232/.324/.378 in 189 PAs last year. could be a classic buy-low option. Bill James is bullish on his 2010 potential, forecasting an .822 OPS. if they can acquire him for Michael Taylor it could make sense to do a deal. Lefty batter with platoon splits is probably not a good fit for the Phillies lineup.

Scott Rolen? Michael Young (too pricey)?

Within:

The Phillies have no one in their minor league system with the potential to play third base at the major league level right now. It appeared Jason Donald might be that guy, but he is obviously now the property of the Cleveland Indians. Greg Dobbs is fit to bat against righthanders, but is worthless against lefties and isn't up to par with the glove.

My opinion:

Troy Glaus is the best option out there if healthy and interested in coming to Philadelphia. His powerful righty bat could slot into the middle of the order nicely. Imagine a three-through-seven of Utley, Werth, Howard, Glaus and Ibanez. Pretty nice, right? However, he made $12 million in 2009 and 2008, so he'll be more expensive than Feliz. The lost season could discount his value, but how much depends to be seen. Unfortunately, there haven't yet been any rumors linking him to the Phils. He also carries the advantage of requiring no compensation picks.

DeRosa is the most realistic and likely possibility. He provides a nice blend of affordability, power, and defense. I would not be upset if the Phils went after him.

Figgins is the premium guy out there, for obvious reasons. However, I don't see the Phils paying his price.

Beltre would be an upgrade as well. He'll give you better defense and the familiar lack of walks and patience. He is probably going to come cheaper than Glaus, and definitely cheaper than Figgins.

I expect DeRosa as target numero uno. If Rube doesn't get his man, I'd look for the Phils to step back and see how the market plays out before committing to anyone.

Chris Brown tells us why PSU plays great D

Governator — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 04:15:26 -0000

I'm not sure how many of you read smartfootball.com, the essential football strategy site run by Chris Brown, but you should. Chris is a maestro of football strategy and is a fantastic read, no matter your knowledge level. He frequently breaks down different offenses/defenses/plays that are either effective or popular. While he tends to focus on schemes that are trendy (i.e. Paul Johnson flexbone, spread option variants, the evolving spread shotgun triple option, Wildcat plays) he stuck with the Blue and White for his most recent piece over at Dr. Saturday.

What does Chris have to say about Dear Old State's defense?

Well, mostly that we play a lot of Cover 3, and we are very good at it.

But once you peel back the layers you see the biggest holdover of them all for Penn State's defense: They are maybe the last, great "Cover 3" team -- i.e. their base coverage is a three-deep, four under zone defense.

...

But, like Draper's suits, while Penn State's defense might be a throwback, it works so damn well because they get all the little details right.

Well, pardon my French, but we already knew that.

What Mr. Brown so eloquently explains is why the Cover 3 works so well and how it integrates nicely with the front seven and the run game.

Fronts and coverages are tied together, which is the reason Bradley and Co. like it so much: They can get in an old-school eight-man front, and with a zone defense every defender has their eyes on the football. Contrast this with man defenses where members of the secondary might have their backs turned on option plays (deadly) or pass plays (can't see the ball in the air to make interceptions or breakups).

...

There are a lot of routes that are supposed to beat Cover 3, but very few get open against Penn State.

Anyone who played high-school football probably played at least some Cover 3, for a lot of those reasons.

Personally, my HS defensive coach, while he didn't play under Bradley (his son did, he wore 40 and was OK as a linebacker) might as well have. I can attest to all of those advantages. We always stuffed the run and played the pass well, regardless of the talent present.

Another component of the Cover 3 is a belief in a style of defense. When you put three d-backs deep, you're not giving up long gains unless they are stupid or physically inadequate. Essentially, what Bradley does, and what Coach Connor did, was to "dare" offenses to drive the field on their defense.

Putting together a 15-play, 70-yard drive is clearly more difficult than completing a single pass 30 yards downfield that is run by the receiver into the end zone. Penalties, missed assignments, drops and turnovers all generally conspire to end a long drive before it reaches paydirt. This makes forcing teams to go on extended drives generally an effective defensive strategy if your guys can hold up all game without tiring.

But that's not all. What you've likely noticed is that Penn State almost never brings a Jim Johnson-esque all-out man coverage blitz. It's generally a zone dog: some combination of five players go for the quarterback, the other six play Cover 3 with three underneath.

The other biggest part of Penn State's defense is its robust zone-blitz package. JoePa's staff has a variety of blitzes, though they have a cardinal rule: Once a zone blitz is called, it will be run; no checking out of it at the last minute.

Brown also works in some history behind the position nicknames for the linebackers and the "hero," and goes through the history of the defense under Joe while also tossing some big compliments in the direction of the defensive assistants.

The article was a preview of the game with Michigan, but it's still a great read for anyone who wants to know more about the success of our 'D' and has an interest in Xs and Os. I would also recommend checking Smartfootball.com religiously for more great stuff like this and following Chris on Twitter @smartfootball.

Oh, and for what its worth, Andrew Quarless' touchdown came with UM playing "Tampa 2" coverage, as Ezeh was forced to get depth with Quarless between the two deep safeties. Brown tossed out the "Tampa 2" as a 'fad' defense. Just sayin'.

Sweet Lou is here, he comes bearing the future

Governator — Sun, 12 Apr 2009 04:45:10 -0000

The air smells a little sweeter in Pennsylvania right now, and I think I know why.

While some less-enlightened folk point to the arrival of spring, I sadly shake my head in disagreement. What's really happening is the coronation of the newest king of the Phillies. King Lou is here, and he is not leaving (hopefully).

Just for fun, let's take a look at his numbers and projections, as well as how they stack up against the lovable Chooch, best known for his prowess at blocking Lidge sliders in the dirt and GIDPs.

Marson:

2007 (A+): .373 OBP, .120 ISO, .346 BABIP, 11.7% BB, 20.4% K, 28.3% XBH

2008 (AA): .433 OBP, .102 ISO, .389 BABIP, 17.4% BB, 21.7% K, 22.8% XBH

2009 (MLB Bill James-171 AB): .392 OBP, .106 ISO, .362 BABIP, 14.1% BB, 22.2% K, 24% XBH

Now, James' numbers are a little high, but the other FanGraphs projections all have him in the ballpark of a .350 OBP. (CHONE-.348, Marcel-.353, Oliver-.347, ZiPS-.336)

Let's examine these numbers a little bit. You can probably attribute the insane 2008 OBP to the huge BABIP, but his walks increased substantially and his strikeouts stayed almost flat as he made the biggest jump in the minors. That is more than just a small deal...it is a big heap of hitting skill. The power, as shown by the painfully bad ISO, is a concern...but my feelings on his power are:

(1) It will come with time. As he gets older and stronger, his bat speed will improve, resulting in more distance off the bat.

(2) Even if it doesn't come, he's proven he's such a skilled hitter he can be a valuable basepath-clogger even if he only ever hits singles.

James thinks his power will increase a tad, but is still projecting a very high BABIP. This probably stems from Marson's swing -- he is a true line drive hitter who sprays to all fields and doesn't elevate the ball frequently. It's possible the power could come as he gets stronger and improves his bat speed, a la Chase Utley, but he will still be valuable without double digit home run power. That's because the Phillies currently run this guy out there:

Ruiz:

career (MLB): .329 OBP, .116 ISO, .263 BABIP, 10.6% BB, 12.3% K, 32.4% XBH, 49.9% GB, 77 OPS+

This is not to bash away at Carlos. He's a wonderful backstop, and I would love to see the Phils keep him around as a backup as long as he's affordable (since his original signing bonus was $8,000, he's been the ultimate bargain ballplayer). He is great on defense, blocks the plate well, hustles his butt off and is an all-around good guy (and he gets dirt on his uniform, which gives Bill Plaschke a massive erection). But he is simply not a good offensive player.

While his awful average last year was partially because of an outrageously low .237 BABIP, the fact that his career number in that department is .263 means it wasn't that fluky.

And we all know why it wasn't THAT fluky: a career groundball rate of 1/2. That means a lot of outs, some singles, and a home run every once in a while. His OPS+ is far below league average, and I imagine it is in the neighborhood of replacement level for his career

As far as defense goes, Ruiz is one of the best, but Marson is said to be no slouch. He is an excellent natural athlete, and the scouting reports indicate he is at least average with room to improve. He also threw out 35% of basestealers last year, a good sign.

Conclusion:

With an aging, strikeout-prone lineup, the Phils are in desperate need of some semblance of offense from the catcher spot. Marson is a patient hitter (with possibly developing power) who is on base frequently who will give the Phightins more than league average offense from the 8-hole. I think his ceiling is Kendall-esque if he doesn't develop power, and Martin- or McCann-esque if he does. All in all, I'm excited what he can do over the next couple of weeks.

...But where do we start?

Governator — Sun, 12 Apr 2009 04:31:12 -0000

So after all that buzz about teh OMGz Hurricanez, it's Flyers-Pens in Round 1. All that remains to be decided is where the series will start.

The good guys and the bad guys are currently tied in the standings with 99 points, but the Pens have more victories and thus the tiebreaker if things don't change.

All the Flyers have to do is scratch out a measly point (or two) against the Rangers today to snare home ice. Just a point. And it would be great if Martin Biron inspired some confidence along the way.

Either way, expect an absolute Pennsylvania brawl in this series. The Pens dominated the regular season matchup, but I would expect no less than 7 games from these two teams.

I think the series comes down to who can defend (as it always does). The Orange and Black roll out the deepest 3 lines in the league, the Pens have Crosby, Malkin and the spark of Guerin, and both sides have major questions defensively.

If Parent/Timmonen and Coburn/Carle can keep the Dynamic Duo from slicing the Flyers up, I think it's on to the conference semifinals. Otherwise, hello Aronimink.

Flyers sign who?

Governator — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 21:06:29 -0000

Sam Carchidi is reporting that Holmgren signed David Sloane, a recent Colgate grad, to fill in for Ryan Parent tonight.

The Flyers signed 6-foot-4, 220-pound David Sloane, an Ambler native, to an amateur tryout under emergency conditions and said he would be in the lineup tonight against the host New York Rangers.

...

Under emergency conditions of an amateur tryout, Sloane is available to play for a 24-hour period beginning with tonight's game.

It was unclear this afternoon why Flyers general manager Paul Holmgren chose to use Sloane instead of calling up a player from the Phantoms. Earlier in the week, Holmgren said Danny Syvret might be used if Parent could not play. Holmgren could not be reached for comment.

"I just want to keep it simple and play my game," Sloane said. "I want to get the butterflies out early, which I am sure there will be plenty of."

Sloane also signed an amateur tryout with the Phantoms on March 17, but has yet to appear in a game for the Flyers' AHL affiliate.

...

Sloane said he was "thankful for this opportunity. Just throwing the Flyers uniform on and playing at a place like Madison Square Garden has been a dream of mine my whole life."

So he wasn't good enough to get on the ice for the Phantoms, but he's a better option than Syvret to play for the flyers? too bad Sbisa won't fit under the cap.

Should be interesting to watch this guy play tonight, that's for sure.

JVR loves college, thinks last night was awfully crazy, he should have taped it

Governator — Wed, 01 Apr 2009 05:13:42 -0000

Top prospect James van Riemsdyk is making his 2nd annual campaign to annoy the hell out of Paul Holmgren.

The 6-3, 19-year-old left-winger just finished his sophomore year at UNH. He scored 17 goals and added 23 assists in 36 regular season games for the Wildcats.

The Flyers are trying to get him on a tryout contract with the Phantoms for the rest of the season. This dance happened last year, and JVR made a very rare move (and ticked Homer off) by choosing to go back to school.

Van Riemsdyk was the Flyer's first pick in the 2007 entry draft and the second pick overall.

"I have spoken a couple of times with his adviser," Holmgren said. "We're still just kind of talking.

"I'm not sure which way this is going to go. [University of New Hampshire] lost and James needs to make a decision whether he wants to leave school or not, and that's kind of what we're talking about right now.

"He's still doing some soul-searching, would be the way to put it right now. I've not talked to James. I've just spoken to his adviser."

On one hand, college is awesome. Especially when it's paid for and you get to be the man every day and be on a varsity athletic team and get mad perks, jersey chasing girls and free gear.

On the other hand, the Flyers are prepared to pay this kid a lot of money, and by a lot of accounts he could be an impact NHL player VERY soon. I would like to see him come out now. It would really be beneficial for him to get in the developmental time at a much higher level of hockey with better, more skilled players. Cheap talent would be really helpful for the Orange and Black next year as they once again fight the cap.

The article also mentions Luca Sbisa will return once Lethbridge's season is over. They are currently in the WHL playoffs. Will the Flyers be able to fit him under the cap?

Kevin Goldstein (BP) talks Phils' prospects

Governator — Sun, 04 Jan 2009 02:00:51 -0000

Kevin Goldstein (BP) talks Phils' prospects

Goldstein hooks phuture phillies up with a nice interview

The Bowl Boondoggle...great read

Governator — Mon, 22 Dec 2008 23:07:04 -0000

The Bowl Boondoggle...great read

Great article by Wetzel from Yahoo about the bowl system. Actually well written and researched, not just senseless opinion shouting.

Projected 2009 Starters - Defense

Governator — Thu, 27 Nov 2008 23:05:00 -0000

There are some major question marks on defense in 2009 as well, specifically in the secondary. All 4 starters are out of eligibility, and only Astorino and Wallace are known commodities who will be back in 09. But the front 7 could be all-time PSU-great, if Maybin, Evans, and Odrick don't go the NFL Bowman is eligible for the draft as well, but he should return.

Let's take a look:

RE: Project Mayhem, hopefully

1. Aaron Maybin - very little needs to be said about him.

2. Kevion Latham - have heard good things about him, and Lattimore and Crawford could also see time.

DT: All set

1. Jared Odrick - dominant

2. Abe Koroma - solid

3. Ollie Ogbu - solid

4. Brandon Ware - He's been unblockable some times as a NG on the foreign team, but he needs to shed a few pounds to please Joe.

note: Devon Still is an x-factor here. He could play anywhere on the D-line, or he could shift to offensive tackle.

LE:

1. Maurice Evans - if he doesn't go to the draft, he could be lined up for a monster year in '09 if he keeps his head screwed on straight.

2. Jack Crawford - Impressive for a true freshman to be thrown into the fray on an LJSr. d-line.

WLB:

1. Mike Mauti/Nate Stupar - these 2 seem like the logical contenders for this spot. Both played excellent on special teams, and seem primed for a spring battle. I favor Stupar, with the possibility that Mauti becomes the top backup for both OLB spots.

2. See above, also Yancich or Andrew Dailey

MLB:

1. Sean Lee - His return could be huge to the PSU defense. It will have been almost 18 months since the injury when the '09 season kicks off, so he should be ready to go.

2. Josh Hull/Chris Colasanti - Given Colasanti's obvious physical gifts, he should have been playing a lot this year. What's going on with #53?

SLB:

1. Big Game Bowman - Our most explosive LB since LaVar.

2. Bani Gbadyu/Yancich/Andrew Dailey - who knows how this shakes out?

CB: a potential disaster zone

1. AJ Wallace - 2009 would be a good time to start playing like a 5-star recruit.

2. Chaz Powell - it seems our need here is greater than at wideout, thus he could move back to his original position.

3. Darrell Givens - hopefully he's ready to contribute

4. Stephon Morris - he is supposedly a natural cover man, so if he's ready he could play

Knowledge Timmons also may figure in the mix here, but he's never really converted that track speed to football success

FS: ?

1. D'Anton Lynn - He's supposedly a natural safety, so this seems a logical spot with Scirrotto's graduation.

2. Malcolm Willis? Knowledge Timmons?

SS: a little better

1. Drew Astorino - really impressed this year, should slide in nicely

2. ??? maybe Bani sees some snaps here, in Rubin's 4th LB role? Maybe Timmons

K - Anthony Fera

P - Jeremy Boone

PR - Devon Smith

KR - Chaz Powell, Stephfon Green

In summary, you have to feel great about our chances of stopping the run. The front 7 is downright loaded. They will need to get great push on passing downs, because the secondary could be a serious adventure.

Projected 2009 Starters - Offense

Governator — Thu, 27 Nov 2008 22:30:51 -0000

Penn State will suffer some heavy losses on offense to graduation after the Rose Bowl, as the triplets, 3 All-Big Ten linemen, and Dan Lawlor will all have used up their eligibility.

Here, I'm going to take a look at what I think next year's depth chart will/should be.

First up, offense.

LT:

1. DeOntae Pannell - they burned his redshirt early in the year, and he was second string to Cadogan all season. There's no reason to believe he won't naturally progress into the starting role.

2. Nerraw McCormack - He hasn't done much since arrived in University Park, but I think he was redshirted this year. Eric Shrive could push here or at RT.

LG: Sweet Lou

1. Lou Eliades - he was challenging Rich Ohrnberger for this spot in 07 before he got concussed, so it's conceivable he would move back inside with Rich O gone.

2. Johnnie Troutman - he was listed 3rd behind Ohrnberger and Lucian for the Michigan State game.

C: Cheeze Wiz?

1. Stefan Wisniewski - He's taken reps there in the past, and it feels logical to move him inside at this point. Shipley showed what a good center can mean to an offense.

2. Matt Stankiewitch - He took a redshirt this year, but he was a stud in HS and seems to have the right build and attitude for a center. If he's good enough, I could see Stank getting to start at center and Wiz back at RG, but I figure he'd really have to light it up for that.

RG: Could be interesting...

1. JB Walton - he was 2nd string to Wiz/Lucian all year, so he'll probably get first crack at the gig.

2. Quinn Barham

RT: OK

1. Dennis Landolt - steady and dependable, if not spectacular.

2. ??? Maybe Shrive, or McCormack, or Mike Farrell?

WR: Yikes!

1. Graham Zug - 'nuff said.

2. AJ Price - I hope he's ready, because he'll be needed.

3. Brett Brackett/Derek Moye - I'd be hesisitant to start Brackett because of his lack of speed, but the slot seems like a good place for him. He got a lot of time in the Terrell Golden wideout/h-back role this year, and did a decent job with it. I wouldn't mind letting him continue to do that, and have Moye, who provides more athleticism, as the true slot receiver.

4. Chaz Powell/Moye - is he ready? He could provide the speed and playmaking ability this depleted WR corps will need. If Moye isn't the 3rd receiver, he'd probably figure in here.

5. BrYce McNeal/Justin Brown or James McDonald - McDonald has paid his dues, but I think we'll get one of McNeal or Brown and that kid could get a look here if he's ready.

I think Devon Smith will be used also, in a DWill-type role as a slot and motion back.

QB: 1st Team All Big Ten

1. Daryll Clark - no questions asked.

2. Pat Devlin - again, no questions asked. Great to have a capable backup.

3. ??? Hopefully Kevin Newsome...

RB: All set here.

1. Evan Royster - duh.

2. Stephfon Green - I'd like to see him more involved next year, especially in the slot as a receiving option.

3. Brandon Beachum - I could see him growing into a short-yardage role. He likes to hit people.

4. Curtis Dukes

TE:

1. Expect the continued Shuler/Quarless platoon. I doubt Quarless becomes what we thought he might be at this point.

Szczerba comes in for extra muscle at the goal line.

FB: We will miss Lawlor badly. He was a phenomenal lead blocker.

1. Mike Zordich - Hopefully he can fill that role