Nick killed the long-form version so I'm opting for brevity.

For an inexplicable reason I'm leaning toward the Indians making a bigger splash than we expect. It's obvious that the Indians have vast problems in run producing, but I wouldn't shy away from saying there is also a lot of value to gain in terms of additional run prevention.

That being said, I do expect Antonetti to make a move for some sort of offensive piece. Nick has put forth a very strong case for Melky Cabrera and I'm inclined to think he's spot on, which in reality means it probably won't happen. Honestly, I haven't looked at any rumors at all so I'm not certain who we've been linked with, but I would guess any move the front office is making is off the media's radar.

We've touched on Hiroki Kuroda, but I'm looking at another Dodger that's in the last year of their contract: Matt Kemp. (Update: As TheDanimal notes in the comments, Kemp is still under club contract for another year. I've thus added Hagadone into the deal).

The price he would command would be steep — or would it? The Indians would surely pick up the remainder of Kemp's $6.95 million salary, giving the Dodgers some much needed cash, and, we'll, Ned Colletti is a moron. I think Jeanmar Gomez and Chun-Hsiu Chen gets it done (again, provided we pick up Kemp's salary, and I'll say throw in an extra couple million).

I'd prefer if the front office made a move for another bullpen arm, either Koji Uehara of the Orioles or Grant Balfour of the Athletics, as I've no faith in Steel, Hermann and Durbin are destined for demotion and release respectively and Pestano is experiencing difficulties. But I don't think that'll happen.

My thinking on this goes back to when the Indians were apparently serious about attempting to trade for Alex Rodriguez a few years ago. I'm certain to be wildly off base but I can see the Indians even making a play to extend Kemp if they traded for him given their lack of future contractual obligations.

The forty (one) game mark. The Indians are in first place, five games ahead of Detroit, six ahead of Kansas City, eight ahead of Chicago, and 11.5 ahead of Minnesota.

There are 121 games left in the season.

Upcoming schedules:

Indians: Next six at home vs. Reds and Red Sox. Then three at both Rays and Jays, four vs. Rangers, and three vs. Twins.

Detroit: Three at Pit, then nine at home — three each vs. Rays, Red Sox, and Twins.

Kansas City: Three vs. St. Louis, then three each at Baltimore and Texas. More importantly, one day off in the next 24 days, including a 20 day stretch without one.

Chicago: Three vs. Dodgers, then 10 game roadtrip — three at Texas, four at Toronto, three at Boston.

Minnesota: Three at Arizona, then six at home — Mariners and Angels. Then three at the Tigers.

What say you?

Well, after not featuring as one of 10 subs in today's friendly vs. Valencia, it looks like the writing is on the wall for Craig Bellamy.

But dear God, why? Easily City's second best player last year, can play up front or on the wing (and he's miles better than SWP), great workrate and energy.

So I don't get it. Does Mancini have personal beef with Bellamy, despite all he says to the media to the contrary?

Going to be disappointing if Bellers leaves, but I wish him well at, likely, Fulham.

Happened to come across ESPN.com's All-Star teams. Needless to say, they're are some significant problems with them, and hey, who doesn't love a bit of ESPN bashing every now and again? I've always enjoyed discussions on who the "real" (that is, deserving) All-Stars should be, so, without ado, here are your real 2009 American League All-Stars. (Bolded first name is starter, following are reserves.)

Feel free to disagree, vehemently!

American League:

• Catchers: Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez.

And it's not even really worth discussion. (ESPN: Mauer).

• 1st Base: Kevin Youkilis, Russell Branyan, Mark Teixeira, Justin Morneau.

Not an easy decision, as there are at least five first basemen in the AL worthy of a roster spot. Youkilis is the clear leader here, though, with the highest OPS and wOBA marks, as well as a strong UZR rating of 10.7 this year (career 5.8 at 1B.)

Branyan seems like a sentimental pick, but in reality I didn't have to stretch to include him. He has the second highest OPS and wOBA of all AL 1B, and his play at 1B has actually been right around league average this year (-0.6 UZR/150).

Why Teixeira and Morneau (ESPN's starting pick; they used the fact that he's leading the AL in RBI to make their case) over Fat Cabrera? Both Teixeira and Morneau have better numbers at the plate, and both are better 1B than Cabrera (regardless of his 6.0 UZR/150 rating this year).

• 2nd Base: Ben Zobrist, Aaron Hill, Ian Kinsler.
  

The starter is an obvious choice (of course, he had less votes from ESPN than Dustin Pedrioa and his .095 ISO and .758 OPS), as Zobrist is leading the entire American League in OPS and wOBA. It's hard to get a proper reading on his defense since he plays so many positions ... but come on, he's leading the AL in OPS! (And ESPN gave him only a single vote.) (ESPN: Hill)

• 3rd Base: Evan Longoria, Brandon Inge.

Longoria is obvious, and he's probably going to be an All-Star for as long as he plays. Inge gets the pick over Scott Rolen because of better power numbers (.245 ISO to Rolen's .161). (ESPN: Longoria)

• SS: Jason Bartlett, Derek Jeter.

Listen, this is just stupid. Derek Jeter is only an All-Star reserve at this point because the AL crop is seriously weak. Bartlett is a much, much better defender, has more XBH (in twelve less games than Jeter), a higher ISO, OPS, and wOBA, and is hitting .367. (ESPN: Jeter, and no, he's not "Still the man", as ESPN says.)

• OF: Carl Crawford, Torii Hunter, Ichiro Suzuki, Adam Lind, Adam Jones, Nelson Cruz, Jason Bay.

Crawford starts because of his good defense and speed score. Trust me, I tried to leave Ichiro off the team, but I can't exactly ignore his .368 average (even if his walk rate is terrible and .125 ISO is bad for a corner outfielder ...)

Note: Johnny Damon can never be an All-Star with that arm. Never. (ESPN: Hunter, Bay, Ichiro—Lind, Jones, and Cruz didn't get a single vote combined.)

Starting Pitchers: Zack Greinke, Felix Hernandez, Roy Halladay, Justin Verlander, Cliff Lee, Jon Lester, Josh Beckett.

Edwin Jackson, you've been too lucky to make this list. (ESPN: Greinke)

Relief Pitchers: Mariano Rivera, Joe Nathan, Bobby Jenks, Andrew Bailey, Scott Downs, David Aardsma.

It felt good leaving Papelbon off this list (and its because he doesn't deserve it).

Teams with the most number of All-Stars:

Bos: 4 (Youkilis, Bay, Lester, Beckett); SEA: 4 (Branyan, Ichiro, Hernandez, Aardsma); TOR: 4 (Hill, Lind, Halladay, Downs); TB: 4 (Zobrist, Longoria, Bartlett, Crawford); NYY: 3 (Teixeira, Jeter, Rivera); MIN: 3 (Mauer, Morneau, Nathan); CLE: 2 (Martinez, Lee); TEX: 2 (Kinsler, Cruz); DET: 2 (Inge, Verlander); BAL: 1 (Jones); CHW: 1 (Jenks); KC: 1 (Greinke); LAA: 1 (Hunter); OAK: 1 (Bailey).

Next Up: Your 2009 National League All-Stars.

The Big Game Thread.

Continue reading this post »

CLE: Carmona
DET: Who knows?

Bonderman was scheduled to start, but is pitching in a B game because Leyland didn't want to showcase him to the Indians before it was absolutely necessary.

In other Tigers news, Granderson is hurt, and Miguel Cabrera is on the verge of signing an eight year contract north of $150 million. Blah.

CLE: Carmona
TOR: McGowan

It doesn't look like there's any audio for today's game, so I have no idea how any of us will follow this game. Let's just make this a dumping ground for all thoughts Spring Training.

Me, I'm really excited about Aubrey's (SSS alarm) performance so far.

Man, I really thought this was 300 characters. Umm, everyone give suggestions for what Andrew should hold up at the Indians-Mets game on Friday (ESPN televised).

Well, since there's going to be a ton of discussion about this, I thought I might start something here about potential bats to target.

A few guidelines:

1. Be realistic.
   
2. Platoons are always an option.
   
3. Think about how we match up (trade wise) with other teams needs.
   
4. Playing multiple positions (flexibility!) is a bonus.
   
5. Plate discipline is preferred, though our organization is good at helping youth with their approaches.
   
5. Left handed bats are OK, but RH is preferable ... I guess.

Have at it.

Yep.

Continue reading this post »

HEY, HEY HEY LETS GO TRIBE
HEY, HEY HEY LETS GO TRIBE
HEY, HEY HEY LETS GO TRIBE
HEY, HEY HEY LETS GO TRIBE
HEY, HEY HEY LETS GO TRIBE
HEY, HEY HEY LETS GO TRIBE

GO TRIBE

I can't wait 4.5 hours. I'm just as antsy and riled up - maybe even nervous today - as I was before Games 1 and 2. I really hope we jump on Clemens in the 1st, and Westbrook sets the Yankmee's down 1-2-3 with 3 groundballs to Jhonny.

Grady sets the tone today, baby. It's TRIBE TIME NOW!

LET'S GO TRIBE!

Well, since there's no game today, I don't know what to do with myself. My voice is almost entirely gone. The first thing any friend I run across says to me is: "I bet you're happy today." Strangers tell me "Go Tribe" on the streets.

But there's no game. And I'm really bored. So, how is everyone else using the off day?

I'm a columnist for the University of Iowa student newspaper, The Daily Iowan. Here's what I wrote for today.

Mr. October
By: Andrew Swift - The Daily Iowan
Posted: 10/1/07
Please, God?

Major League Baseball's playoffs start this week. My beloved Cleveland Indians are set to host the evil New York Yankees, beginning Thursday. It's been six long years since the Tribe was in the playoffs. I feel like an Israelite after discovering the Promised Land.

I have class. Worse, I have a paper due Friday.

Let's get this straight. I have a hard enough time going to class when the Indians are playing the White Sox in some meaningless April game. Now, we're in the playoffs - and midterms just happen to coincide with the second season.

A couple of phenomena need to be addressed. Most people frown upon using "we" in reference to ones favored sports teams. As a Cleveland fan, I've earned this right. You can't religiously follow the Indians, Browns, and Cavaliers and still classify yourself as an optimist.

We're not cursed. We just have terrible luck. Elway, Jordan, Jose Mesa - pick a dramatic sports moment in the last 30 years, and there's a good shot a Cleveland team was on the wrong end of it. Early on, a Cleveland fan becomes conditioned to always look for the other shoe to drop.

The Browns have never won a Super Bowl. The Cavaliers had never even made the NBA Finals before last year. But neither of those franchises draws the same loyalty from me as the Indians, who haven't won a World Series since 1948. During last year's NBA Finals, I secretly hoped for the San Antonio Spurs to beat the Cavaliers so the Indians could be my first championship.

I don't even have any ties to Cleveland. The first baseball game I attended, back in 1992, was Cleveland at Milwaukee. The Indians' center fielder, Kenny Lofton, quickly became my favorite ballplayer, and from that point on, I was an Indians fan. The Indians' reacquisition of him this past July is a sign of destiny.

In my memoirs, there'll be an entire chapter dedicated to Kenny Lofton. (No way am I editing that. - ed.)

When the Indians made a late run in 2005 toward October, I wore a jersey every day for a month. When they choked the last week of that year, I felt God had forsaken me. The last Friday of the regular season, I spent 45 blacked-out minutes detailing how much "I love these guys" to a few friends. Though I take a lot of hell for it to this day, I refuse to feel ashamed.

Naturally, I've since taken to strict silence regarding how well I think the Tribe will fare in the postseason. I don't want to blame myself for any crushing defeats. Some might argue I'm acting irrationally. They would be right.

I'm dead scared of the Yankees - not because I necessarily think they're a better team, but because I can't stomach the thought of bowing out in the first round. Yankees General Manager Brian Cashman - a fitting name for the Yankees GM - is beginning to eerily resemble Russian President Vladimir Putin in my eyes. I have nightmarish memories of the Indians series with the Yankees in April, when a six-run outburst off Joe Borowski in the bottom of the ninth propelled the Yankees to a sweep.

If we advance, I may be placed in the wonderful position of facing the favorite team of both my editor and my best friend. The taunting that would come from a Red Sox victory over the Indians would be crushing. (This is true. -ed.) But my greatest fear is of a successful postseason run, culminating in the Tribe becoming the bandwagon team du jour. Winning would be unfathomably amazing - but the Jhonny-come-lately crowd would deflate my elation. (Somehow, this is spelled correctly. - ed.)

I can't even speak to my father, because I know he'll bring it up. Sorry, Pops, it isn't personal. Countless friends will claim I've finally lost my mind, as I avoid them for no reason. My social life is guaranteed to evaporate during the playoffs - by choice. Other posters on the Indians blog I spend countless hours reading will become virtually my only human contact.

I won't be hungry. I won't sleep well. I'll be grouchy, moody, and prone to both random bouts of laughter and tears. Clearly, I'm a basket case. But this is what love is supposed to be. Go Tribe.

DI columnist Andrew Swift is on the warpath. E-mail him at andrew-swift@uiowa.edu with warpaint. © Copyright 2007 Daily Iowan

Fausto Carmona?

I know it won't happen, but should it happen? If we didn't know both CC's and Fausto's histories - 100 game winner vs. 1-10 last year - which pitcher would we think is more dominant headed into the playoffs? Obviously, they're both great. But! On 3 days rest (potentially), would you rather have a tired CC or a tired (sinkerballer!) Fausto?

Just a thought. Discuss.

I think the title is self-explanatory. Anyone want to be in a serious fantasy football league, let me know.

Here's the deets.
Would be an ESPN league, slightly modified.

Roster:
QB
QB
RB
RB
WR
WR
WR
WR/RB
TE
WR/TE
K
D/ST
Bench
Bench
Bench
Bench

Points are standard:

Passing    
TD Pass: 4 points
2 Point Conversion: 2 points
Every 25 passing yards: 1 point.
INT: -2 Points

Rushing:
Touchdown: 6 points
2 Point Rushing Conversion: 2 points
Every 25 rushing yards: 1 point.

Receiving:
Touchdown: 6 points
2 Point Receiving conversion: 2 points
Every 10 receiving yards: 1 point

Miscellaneous:
Fumble recovered for TD: 6 points
Punt/Kickoff return for TD: 6 points
Each fumble lost: -2 points.

Kicking:
FG made 0-39 yards: 3 points
FG made 40-49 yards: 4 points
FG made 50+ yards: 5 points
Every PAT: 1 point

Team Defense / Special Teams
0 points allowed: 10 points
2-6 points allowed: 7 points
7-13 points allowed: 4 points
14-17 points allowed: 1 point
22-27 points allowed: -1 point
28-34 points allowed: -4 points
35-45 points allowed: -7 points
46+ points allowed: -10 points
Blocked punt for TD, blocked field goal for TD, fumble return for TD, INT return for TD: 6 points
Each fumble recovered / INT: 2 points
Each safety: 2 points
Each sack: 1 point

That covers it. If you're interested sign up here, or send me an email at andrew-swift@gmail.com, and designate the subject title as LGT fantasy football. Preferably a 12 team league.

It's indubitably too high of expectations, but I've felt most of the year that Grady has underperformed. After all, his age 24 season (92 extra base hits!!!) was so good, it seemed like he was going to make the leap at 25 into super-super stardom.

He's responded with a .280/.384/.468/.852 line, opposed to last year's .290/.367/.533/.900 rates. Right off the top, we can see that his power has dropped, which accounts for the drop in OPS.

This is still great offense for a centerfielder. And, from the looks of it, there's absolutely zero reason to not expect a huge season next year.

One of the most encouraging signs is the spike in his walk rate. In 2005, his BB rate stood at 7.4%. In 2006, it upped to 10.4%, and in 2007 it is at 13.2%. This continued growth is one of the most exciting things he's shown.

From a luck/unluck perspective, it appears that he's been right on target. While his BABIP looks high (.340), it is right in line with his 05/06 numbers (.335 and .342 respectively). His line drive rate has ticked up from 19% last year to 21% in 2007. (I don't have the numbers from prior years.)

Two things allow Grady to consistently keep such a high BABIP: his speed and his GB:FB ratio. His groundball percentage is a low 35% (34% in 06), and his 21% line drive percentage leave him with a strong FB percentage of 44% - and fly balls are more likely to turn into hits (also why extreme ground ball pitchers like Fausto and Westbrook are so successful).

Historically, Grady has punished RHP and been dreadful against LHP. No more. This year, his splits are pretty even, with a .276/.393/.479/.872 vs. RHP, and a .288/.369/.451/.820 against LHP (170 PA). In comparison, in 2006 he posted lines of .329/.416/.586/1.002 vs RHP and .214/.290/.427/.717 against LHP (239 PA). So, when he returns to his usual RHP bashing days, we're going to see something closer to a .950 OPS than the .850 we're seeing now.

He hit 53 doubles last year, an indicator of future HR power. So, if you're in fantasy leagues, trade for him, because next year he's going to explode.

It took a few days to write this, since I've still been in shock after having the misfortune to view the Jhonny bunting fiasco in person, but this thought washed over my mind after Saturday's game at Minnesota.

I was walking around after the game on Saturday, a tough loss, which in my mind have seemed all too frequent lately. A Twins fan piped up "Go Indians" trying to mock me (wearing my Grady jersey and script I cap), to which I merely smirked. Then, he turned around, and I saw it.

He was wearing a Nick Punto jersey. I F you not.

So, how does this relate to the diary subject? Well, as soon as I saw his jersey I instantly realized that no matter how much the Indians frustrate me - and the rest of us - we support an organization that gets it.

E5 and others hate on Shapiro for getting rid of Phillips and Guthrie, but ultimately the job our general manager has done in 5 years has been nothing short of phenomenal. Shapiro, his love for character guys not withstanding, understands how to build a good baseball team, and understands what makes a baseball player good (there's been no shortage of references to his OBP comment in the booth directed at Underwood).

Wedge, for as much as I may despise him, is not a terrible manager. He may drive some of us crazy sometimes, but I've seen baseball managers do some absolutely horrifically stupid things. The fact that he has only made a few mistakes of that caliber this year is a good thing.

Maybe more than anything, I love the fact that for someone who believes themselves to be an intelligent baseball fan, I follow the organization I described above.

We support an organization that doesn't play Nick Punto regularly, but rather uses research and intelligence to find talent.

I am clearly a hardcore Sabermetric advocate, so this may seem partly grating to those not of the same opinions. But from an organizational standpoint, there is no team I'd rather follow right now.

I'm rambling. GO TRIBE!

Pretty funny stuff in Monday's PD about Nixon's pie antics.  Some highlights:

"So when Nixon lowers his voice and leans in conspiratorially, it is to share the details that not a soul in the Tribe locker room is privy to.

'Condiments,' he says, eyebrows raising, head bobbing knowingly."

...

Every player expects it now. Some happily accept the pie. Others try to duck. The club has embraced the prank in the form of a late-inning montage played on the scoreboard, scenes of white fluff covering players' faces before proclaiming 'Rally Pie!'"

American League at National League, 8:00 EST (FOX)

Starting pitchers:

American: Dan Haren (129.1 IP, 2.30 ERA, 81 PRC)
National: Jake Peavy (119 IP, 2.30 ERA, 80 PRC)

The American League looks to continue its recent dominance of AAAA tonight.

Come one, come all. Bring your drinks, forget the recent LGT animosity, and cheer on Grady, Victor, CC and home field advantage in the World Series!

So, after the last two nights, we've seem to established a drinking game. But, most drinking games I know have set rules - and we apparently not only not have set rules, but rules are continuously made up as we go along.

Should we let it go at random, or should we attempt to define them?

From what I've seen so far, they are as follows:

1. Any mention of grit / gamer / plays the game the right way / etc.
   
2. Eric Wedge bashing (have we included Joel Skinner bashing yet?)
   
3. Utility infielder jokes.