B1G 2012: THE ILLINOIS COCKTAIL PARTY PREVIEW

I think everyone at OTE was ready for Ron Zook to go. We appreciated the humor and the ridiculous quarterback switches, but we here love some good coaching and good football sense. And the Zooker didn't bring that in spades. So yes, the Illinois Fighting Illini set a record last year by winning 6 and then losing 6 to finish the season. That's all in the past. Time to take a look at 2012, where a new coach and a challenging road schedule won't make the going easy.

One thing to keep in mind: The Illinois football team featured a Top 20 defense in 2011. That's something really good to build on. One other thing to keep in mind: The Illinois offense of 2011 was horrendous. They gave up tons of sacks, barely scored 20 ppg, and failed to generate big plays.

On last season

The good news is...

Zook is gone, along with his inability to make effective in-game adjustments or tailor an offense to his players strengths.

A bowl win is always nice, even if it may have had traces of a cripple fight...

And let's not forget there will be some returners in 2012, 14 starters to be exact.

The bad news is...

That damn spread offensive system, the one that looked out of sync and punchless much of the year? It's still alive and struggling, judging from the Spring Game.

It looks a bit like a Pistol system, but it's a Spread with read-option. And it was ugly in 2011, breaking 20 points in conference play only twice. A.J. Jenkins, he of the 90 catches and probably the Illini's best offensive threat, is gone also.

On the offensive side of the ball

The good news is...

There are two quarterbacks, Nathan Scheelhaase and Riley O'Toole, who are capable of leading the team. Because O'Toole is white and doesn't feature a huge arm, we will henceforth refer to him as "scrappy" and "savvy", otherwise the Gods of sports cliches would be unhappy with us.

There are two running backs, Donovonn Young and Josh Ferguson (150 yards in the Spring Game), who are big play guys.

The tight end position will be a strength for years to come.

The bad news is...

The offensive system makes me want to die.

I know it's a spread, I know it's not built for long passes, I know the talent level of the skill players isn't that high. But the Illini are going to have a tough time completing any passing pattern that asks for some kind of timing. Sadly. most patterns do in fact demand some sort of timing.

Furthermore, are we going to see some of the same QB musical chairs as we did last year? One has to assume new coach Tim Beckman won't make the same mistakes as Ron Zook did, switching in his quarterbacks with no rhyme or reason.

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My thanks to John M. from Crimson Quarry for this honest, introspective piece. Definitely rec worthy. - graham

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Indiana Football: Why Bother? I'll Tell You

- John M.

I would like to thank the PTB here at OTE for giving me some space to write about Indiana football. I don't venture over here as often as I should, and when I or another Indiana football fan posts anything about IU football, we're often met with a combination of pity and curiosity. Here's how a typical thread goes:

Me: [some comment relevant to Indiana football]

Random OSU/Penn State/Michigan fan: "Wow, it's a real live Indiana fan. We never have Indiana fans here!"

Snarling Purdue fan: "Oh, look who forgot to turn around his reversible jacket."

Conciliatory Iowa fan: "Dude, knock it off. No Indiana fans are going to come around here if we keep acting like this every time one shows up!"

Me: "Seriously, I know we're not any good. Can we just talk about football?"

Sure, IU doesn't generate as much attention here at OTE as the schools with better football teams (and there are eleven of them). And sometimes there isn't all that much to say. "Gee, guys, I know we deserve to be #12 in your ‘Comparing Crappy Movies to Big Ten Teams' post, but couldn't you at least give us ‘Ishtar' instead of ‘Malibu's Most Wanted'?" (ed note: MMW is an underrated comedy IMO) (ed note deux: why haven't we done this comparison piece yet??)

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Don't worry, everyone is going to get the snarky short end of one of these.

It just happened to be Sparty's turn.

After watching a Spartan team disappear last night against the packed in Louisville defense, a Spartan team that had what I consider the easiest road to the Final Four, it appears that B1G supporters will pin their hopes now on a dangerous OSU team and/or a huge Indiana upset. Watching the #1 seeded Spartans fall also reminded me that it's been almost ten years since a B1G team won a national title in the two college majors: men's basketball and football.

So the question exists - How badly does the B1G actually need a national title in football or basketball?

A simple analysis hints at the thought that the B1G doesn't need a national title. Watch -

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Uh oh.

This was way too much fun.

I really hope you're not reading this. That is unless you're outside, on a mobile device, enjoying the record breaking Midwest temperatures. Jackson, Michigan hit 80 degrees today, something the (disputed) birthplace of the Republican Party had never done this time of year. It's March, and although I believe that talking about the weather is typically small talk to waste the time, the wonderful weather plays a nice role in mentioning that March 15, 2012 might literally have been the greatest day ever.

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We've got four matchups today. Some good (Iowa/Illinois is a tasty morsel), some not good (Purdue/Nebby mahhhh). Since Michigan is going to win the whole thing anyway and then make a Final Four run, none of this really matters, but I'll take some shots at the four games today.

I would also like to mention that yes, at 11:30 am, there will be basketball on TV. For those of you without jobs, I hate you. Your next four weeks are spoken for and I am jealous. Wake up, eat Lucky Charms, watch hoops. Literally shaking my head.

One more point - The best basketball team I ever played on, or at least the most successful team, was an 8th grade "A" team. We were .500, which says a lot about the teams I played on throughout my life. But after some early season struggles, we sort got on a roll. And I say this - When you get on a roll, when you're not plagued by injuries, when you figure out the identity of your team, what works, what doesn't work...You become incredibly dangerous. You go into every game, no matter the matchup, knowing you're going to win. You make a mistake and everyone says, no worries, keep working hard. You miss a shot? Keep shooting. So if you watch a lot of basketball and you have a discerning eye, watch for those teams come March.

Iowa v. Illinois

I love this Iowa team. I love their four wins over ranked teams. I love Matt Gatens. I love when Basabe gives 15 good minutes. I love how this is an 11 win team that pushed itself into an NIT spot.

On the other hand, I don't like Illinois (Sorry U-God). The team doesn't have offensive cohesiveness. The Illini are 2-11 in their last 13 games, all conference games. Bruce Weber is probably done.

I'm taking the Hawkeyes; I trust hardworking squads come March.

Indiana v. PSU

A) It's like a home game, B) The Hoosiers are hot and balanced, C) PSU can't score points, D) Indiana is 2-0 v. PSU this year.

All signs point me to an Indiana win. That ain't rocket science. Timmy Frazier better get his scoring shoes on...

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Ridiculous, I know, but kind of awesome. Now you get the voice of the fan, with all its foibles and squeaks and "ums".

To answer some burning questions -

The lighting is not excessive, I'm just not tan right now. Michigan will do that to you.

William Buford's name is mispronounced. Sorry. I only did, oh, 35 takes to get a finished product and I would love to show those all to you, but almost every single one ends with me cussing.

The featured celebratory cigar is an Arturo Fuente with a medium ring gauge. It's an easy smoke, but tasty, just like every other AF.

Subscribe to OTE's YouTube Channel here

This channel will be way more awesome when we start to get guest appearances from people other than me. This channel will also be 100x more awesome during football season, when I can bring the thing into stadiums and interview cheerleaders.

Furthermore, I'm assuming you all might have some sweet videos of your own B1G football or non-football experiences. Send those vids onto me, we'll feature them on the OTE channel.

Give me some ideas for what y'all want to see while OTE has a video camera and a YouTube channel. I thought of going to all the B1G stadiums this year, scalping tickets, getting some good ol' home town video at each game...

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Last week, I wrote that the B1G wasn't the best basketball conference in America. My main point? Sure, we have strong defenses, but the B1G isn't filled with dangerous teams that came make runs. I cited the uninspired play of Wisconsin, Purdue, and Indiana...

...Who all promptly went out and got huge wins over the three teams ahead of them, clinching even nicer spots for themselves in the NCAA Tourney. And then I read that ESPN's Power Rankings have the B1G as the top conference. I'll take it. So what else do we know?

Six In

Michigan State (Probable 1/2 seed)

Ohio State (Probable 2 seed)

Michigan (Probable 3 seed)

Indiana (Probable 4 seed)

Wisconsin (Probable 4/5 seed)

Purdue (Probable 8 seed)

...

One Bubbling Hard

NW (Probable Play-In game for a 13 seed)

...

Five...In Need Of B1G Tourney Run

Illinois

Minnesota

Iowa

PSU

Nebraska

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Michigan football...is relatively "back" thanks to a huge year, increased fanbase unity, monster recruits...Basically every aspect of the program seems to be on the rise (even the damn basketball team). Or is that just all afterglow of an 11-2 season?

No matter. In conjunction with this Ann Arbor rise, SBN's Michigan blog Maize and Brew has a new editor/leader, Zach Travis. Zach has instantly began providing really really good basketball and football analysis. Also, he's decided to answer all my questions. Our thanks for the extended interview on Zach's favorite indi music band, improved Michigan recruiting, and whether the Michigan program is still exceptional.

...

Q- Zach, tell the OTE readers about yourself, about your background, your favorite Indi music band, your favorite Michigan athlete of all time...

A- I'm a Michigan local (born and raised in the Flint area) that grew up loving Michigan because of my father who completed his M.A. at UMFlint while working and helping my mom raise my sister and I. I started really getting into Michigan football in high school when I started to play football (before that it was all basketball), and by the time it came to apply for college there was only one place I applied (thank God I got accepted).

I started at Michigan in 2003, went to every home game except one (Illinois in '03 thanks to a bout of mono that also cost me my good academic standing as a freshman). I ended up getting my B.A. in both history and philosophy because I naively thought two worthless liberal arts degrees would endear me to employers more than one. I stuck it out for Braylonfest in '04, I watched Manningham crush Penn State's undefeated dreams in '05, I went to the 2007 Rose Bowl, and I was in the stands for The Horror.

I started blogging during a jobless period a couple years ago because I figured if I was going to devote that much time a day to Michigan football I might as well create something. That led to my old site Dreaded Judgement and then me getting picked up by MnB Dave to write for Maize n Brew. Last fall I got hired to write Big Ten football content for Bleacher Report (which was, well, an experience) and as my contract ended I got the opportunity to take over for Dave at MnB --- something I was thrilled to do.

When it comes to indie music its either Wilco, Pavement, Man Man, or LCD Soundsystem. Mostly I just listen to R&B or soul anymore --- it doesn't get any better than Otis Redding (Editor Note: Otis, my man!), Sam Cooke, or Aretha Franklin. My favorite Michigan player of all-time was Mike Hart until a couple years ago, but Denard has stolen my heart. I don't think he will be giving it back for a while.

Q - Now that you're running Maize and Brew, what is your goal as the lead Michigan blogger for SBN?

A - I just want to build a great Michigan site. I was a reader at MnB long before I was a writer, and I am still close with MnB Dave so I really just want to continue to build on all the great work he did. The first thing I did when I got offered the position running MnB was think, "what writers would I like to read," then I went out and offered them the chance to come on board and write the kinds of things they are interested in. A site is only as good as the people writing for it. I really believe that there is a substantial audience out there for Michigan content and I think MnB can grow to be one of the premier SBN college sites if we keep providing great content.

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Who says we can't write about basketball on OTE? With Spring Practice not quite heating up yet and some excellent storylines to be discussed, I wanted to ponder a little bit of media/reality disconnect I've been seeing regarding the B1G's basketball conferences.

Early this month, I read a few articles claiming the B1G is the best conference in college basketball. I was a tad surprised, well more than a tad surprised, because after watching a ton of games this year, I felt like the B1G wasn't that strong a conference. Sure we have tenacious Michigan, peaking Michigan State, and uber-talented OSU. But beyond them, very few teams strike me as dangerous or even Tourney worthy. These teams just don't pass the "do they look like an NCAA team" test. The conference as a whole plays defense well, which is important and half the battle, but...Illinois? Dead in the water. Purdue? Limping. Wisconsin? Cannot score the basketball.

My fears were confirmed today when "the best conference in the NCAA" was given only three locks for the NCAA Tourney by the SI Bubble Watch expert. Indiana and Wisconsin are "probably in", but not locks, according to this expert. The other possible four teams (Purdue, NW, Illinois, Minnesota) are closer to not making the Tourney...than to making it.

So what did we learn here?

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Mr. Delaney, Mr. Bielema, and fellow OTE reader -

I sit here and deliver a discussion on the state of quarterbacking in the B1G. I sit here and deliver a discussion on passing games in the B1G.

But most importantly, I sit here to warn you - We are not the same pass-happy conference that we were two years ago. The State of the B1G Quarterbacks and Passing Games are in flux thanks to coaching changes and changing offense philosophy.

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Bowl Lessons

This wasn't an earthshaking bowl season, mostly because of things discussed here, but Wisconsin and the Michigan schools at least made it bearable to watch at the end. So did we learn anything?

Other OTE Articles of Note

Penn State's Hilarious Coach Hiring Process - The Way Ted Glover Saw It Go Down

Hilary's Simpson's Power Poll Wrap Up

We learned that Purdue has some nice talent; and seriously, if you had guessed Purdue would have ended the season being considered a better team than Ohio State, Northwestern, and Illinois, I would have called you crazy. Real crazy.

We learned that the Spartan and Wolverine coaches are pretty solid (although I guess we probably knew that). Both teams came back and won against worthy opponents...without playing their best ball. The players were put in position to succeed by the coaches and that's about all you can ask for.

We learned that the late season swoons of PSU, OSU, and Nebraska...were not just B1G induced. Nope, those teams were just not that good in 2011-2012. We also learned you don't want to live in a B1G world where OSU and PSU are rebuilding. Not during bowl season anyways.

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I would argue that no, a Michigan win does not in fact save face for the B1G. We sealed our fate with yesterday's losses. However, I would also argue that the 2011-2012 bowl season was one of the least consequential bowl seasons in history (yes, more meaningless than usual for you playoff lovers). This is not a diatribe about a need for playoffs though. Expansion and complete program overhauls made bowl results, in many circumstances, completely meaningless to the bigger picture. Let's discus.

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How does one determine the importance of a Bowl? Well, I think it's pretty simple. Something like -

Preseason Expectations of the B1G team +

Preseason Expectations of the opposing team +

Meaningful nature of the Bowl +

National perception of the matchup +

Regional perception of the matchup +

B1G's perception of the matchup +

Importance of the matchup on regional/national levels +

Impact on 2012 season +

Impact on recruiting =

Bowl Importance

We could rate this with HilaryLee-like equations or graphs, but I think this shakes itself out nicely to give us an answer.

DOESN'T PASS THE SMELL TEST

TAMU-Northwestern is a big game...for Northwestern. If they win, streak over. And if Northwestern does win, people will just bemoan such a talented TAMU team falling apart. But on a national level, both teams are middle of the road.

Iowa-Oklahoma is actually more important than you would think, because a win here would be such a boost to the Hawkeyes (and a rarity too - a preseason #1 losing to an unranked team in a bowl game?). But it's still just a blip on the national level.

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Hey guys, it's Christmastime here in America (in case you haven't heard). And we've had a hell of year in the B1G. And we've had one hell of year on OTE. So let me first say, thank you, Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, Happy Kwanza, Happy Festivus, Happy Year of Skyrim, etc. Thank you to all our writers, our old readers, new readers, haters, lovers, people living in their parent's basement, people with kids, individuals who moved to Des Moines to be with someone you thought was your future wife but is now living crosstown with someone named Larry and now you're sitting alone on Christmas eating soggy Lucky Charms and staring out at the desolate countryside, wondering, what if, what if. I'm so thankful that you stop by OTE to wade into the awesomeness of B1G fandom.

Second -

The economy apparently isn't spectacular. People don't like Wall Street. People don't like Congress. Rock music has been eclipsed by Indi music, er, unless for some reason you're a huge Daughtry or Nickelback fan. So let's take it back, way back, into a simpler time, with more hair, more overwrought guitar solos, and less cell phones. With that in mind, I asked each OTE writer the question - If your 2011 B1G program/team was a 1980's hair band song, what song would you be? Answers...below.

ed note: We didn't get all the teams represented, so add your own ideas to the mix.

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It's now down to Kansas and Wisconsin for Dayne Crist.

This would of course be the second grad student exemption quarterback to come to Madison in as many years. And it's already pissing people off. Check out the OTE thread here and tell me - Who wasn't offended by the thought of Crist playing quarterback in Madison? Wisconsin fans were angry because DC was a TO machine at ND. These Badgers were also worried how this would affect recruiting of quarterbacks. B1G fans, especially Spartans, were offended that Wisconsin would use, and presumably abuse, the exemption rule two years in a row. Others were pissy about the rule in general.

So let's conversate for a few about this odd situation that sort of resembles free agency and helped Wisconsin win the B1G title in 2011.

Why Wisconsin Should Not Pursue Another Transfer QB by Ted Glover

Dear Wisconsin,

I can understand why you'd be wanting to dip into the Transfer QB well again--but for two ridiculous, 100-1 Hail Mary passes, you and Russell Wilson are talking about playing LSU in the BCS National Championship game.

But Dayne Crist is no Russell Wilson, and the 2012 Wisconsin Badgers aren't the 2011 Wisconsin Badgers.

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I do not expect the B1G to impress this bowl season. Too little offense, conference-wide, and too many mediocre teams in that squishy middle.

/awkward silence

However, let us pray deeply for at least five wins, which is doable. A little toughness here, a little realized potential there, a couple struggling opponents...And we pull a nationally respectable 6-4 record out there, helping the B1G in 2012 BCS polls and recruiting.

Check out these matchups though:

Games The B1G SHOULD Win:

Purdue over WMU

OSU over Florida

Michigan over VT

Purdue plays tougher than anyone's expected, even though Vegas gives them no credit. The lack of Boilermaker weapons gives people pause, but...Beat the MAC. OSU has a suddenly functioning offense with a hit or miss defense, which favors them over the barely awake Florida offense. Michigan is explosive and reaping the fruits of a veteran class and a (probably) favorable matchup.

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Michigan's Defense Has Vastly Improved in 2011

The proof is in their 2nd half performances and ability to get third down stops (remember late versus Iowa, how many times the Hawkeyes were stopped on third and short?). Also take a look at the tremendous amount of rushing yards given up last year, and the year before...and compare that to 2011.

2009 - 474 attempts, 2063 yards, 4.35 YPC, 20 TD's

2010 - 554 attempts, 2456 yards, 4.43 YPC, 34 TD's

2011 - 381 attempts, 1549 yards, 4.07 YPC, 13 TD's

What's crazier than those insane stats? The 2011 defense was made up of the same kids who played in 2010. Apparently new coaches, less injuries, and new schemes was a good idea! /wins award for most obvious statement of the year. Everyone remembers 2010, where that 3-4, or modified 3-4, or the occasional 3-3-5...was completely ineffective, where opposing coaches would shelve the passing game because they knew the run game would be working all game. I went to the MACtion championship game for Miami (OH) in 2010. After watching a half of Red(skin)hawk football, I turned to Jon and said, "something is different with their defense, I can't figure it out." Turns out that after watching Michigan football all year, I wasn't used to watching a team that form tackled and put their linebackers in position to make plays. Things done changed.

Take a look at the individual performances of the star runners Michigan faced this year:

Cierre Wood, ND: 127 yards, 1 TD

Jonas Gray, ND: 64 yards

Ronnie Hillman, SDSU: 109 yards

Edwin Baker, MSU: 167 yards, 1 TD

Rex Burkhead, Nebraska: 36 yards

Taylor Martinez, Nebraska: 49 yards

Ralph Bolden, Purdue: 22 yards

Marcus Coker, Iowa: 132 yards, 2 TD

Jason Ford, Illinois: 26 yards, 1 TD

Braxton Miller, OSU: 100 yards, 1 TD

Boom Herron, OSU: 37 yards, 1 TD

Key performers exist mostly on the disruptive D-Line, but the secondary has improved also, giving up 1000 less passing yards than last years' squad. And yet -

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It's a lot of fun when you get a Heisman candidate from the B1G. Even though their candidacy most likely came at the expense of your team, most of the ire you felt towards the candidate is probably gone come Bowl Season. So we'll take a quick look at Montee Ball, the Wisconsin RB who is projected to finished 4th in the Heisman voting. I asked our writers - What did Montee Ball do to your team this year? Note: Montee Ball did not play against Michigan in 2011, but I watched him in East Lansing during the Hail Sparty game and Jesus - Ball was ridiculous. His body control, balance, and quickness remind me a sports car weaving through cones on a test track. The 25 lb. offseason weight loss turned Ball into a more versatile back. Sure, he can push a pile at 206 lbs, but his improved swerving and juking were something to behold. I tip my cap to someone who turned himself into "The Next Great Wisconsin Running Back."

Bonus Question - If Wisky goes 13-0 or 12-1, who gets the Heisman Credit, Russel Wilson or Ball? Intriguing...

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MSULaxer sent this image to me. So if you're sitting near Section 615, Seat 4, Row 4, and you see a young man with Spartan paraphernalia on, buy him a beer or 5.

Fans, and I suspect some OTE readers, will jump on many different kinds of Michigan-hating bandwagons. Four specific ones come to mind:

1. "You beat a 6-6 team, why are you celebrating so much?"
2. "Here comes Urban Meyer, here comes another OSU win streak."
3. "The weak B1G should be thanked for your success, 'cause that's not a 10-2 team."
4. "Enjoy getting crushed in the BCS or the Cap One. You're going to have to play quarterbacks who won't overthrow wide open receivers."

College football, and life in general, does move quickly past the present. People move past today's news to tomorrow's news...before today is even done.

So let me treasure this victory, the first of its kind since I was a 20 year old sophomore, the first since I whooped and hollered in the back of antiquated Peabody Hall. Let me cheer this victory because Michigan showed tremendous poise and physicality against a program that's been better than the entire B1G for the last ten years. Let me celebrate all those damn-the-torpedo Denard Robinson runs that kept so many drives alive. Let me celebrate ten wins (!) and defensive toughness. And my God, let me celebrate something most* of you support: Beating Ohio State.

/pause

Thank you.

*Those who subscribe to the "meteor theory" are free to hate at will.

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(A musty office somewhere in Boston, February 2011)

(flipping through press clippings from 2010) That don't look good to me at all Urban.

The NCAA was a monster. Mean fuckin' drunk. Used to come over to Gainesville hammered, looking to death penalize someone. I had to use "more family time" as a PR shield so they wouldn't go after Tebow's eye stickers.

Used to put sanctions, loss of scholarships, or a faux early retirement on the kitchen table and say, choose.

Boy with the oversigning and all, I gotta go with loss of scholarships there.

Went with the early retirement.

Why?

'Cause fuck 'em, that's why.

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Some of you may downplay Michigan's beating of Nebraska. Some of you may bring up Nebraska's fumbles or the homefield advantage of the Big House (that's a new one). It doesn't matter, because for the first time since 2007, Michigan beat a top tier B1G team.* And for the first time since 2006, Michigan, well, played like Michigan should.

This Michigan season has been an under the radar one ever since the MSU loss. Everyone assumed it was the same old "start hot and then get shown for what they really are" Michigan team. Apparently, not so fast, my friends. So - What happened? What should we take from this season? And what's going to happen this week versus OSU?

*top tier being a relative term; I guess we could have said "ranked", but 2008 Wisconsin was ranked and turned out to be a pretty mediocre football team. Nebraska has 8 wins, including beatings of MSU, OSU, and PSU. So that's top tier-ish.

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I am thrilled out of my damn socks for three specific games this week, because as far as predictions go, I don't what the hell is going to happen. You think I know which Ohio State offensive line will show up, the one that knocked Wisconsin all around or the one that got manhandled by Purdue? You think I have any idea if Michigan can slow a power running attack like Nebraska? And even though your mind gives some cognitive dissonance about picking Purdue over Iowa, that game is inching closer to a tossup in my mind.

Enjoy some prognosticating and then log onto Yahoo! to weigh in. OH AND HOW IN GODS NAME CAN I WATCH FIVE B1G GAMES AT ONE TIME? Even my DVR can't do that.

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