Logic is good. Logic is what keeps you from hitting on the gal with the adam’s apple in the smokey dive bar.

Raw emotion can be good, but it’s also what will tell you to take a chance "because that might not be an adam’s apple at all -- it might just be the beginnings of a goiter -- so how do you know until you investigate after eight more drinks?" Fear that raw, base emotion.

Logic says Jason Bay, fine hitter that he is, is going to be overpaid. A lot of his value is given right back on defense, he’s over 30, and he isn’t likely to age gracefully. Maybe he’ll ease into his mid- and late-30s like a healthy Moises Alou. Logic says that it would be silly to pay close to $100M to find out.

Then the raw emotion takes over. Bay’s asking price is now floating around 4/$70M, which is almost the kind of contract a team can work around. He’d replace Eugenio Velez, so it’s an addition by subtraction even before it’s an addition by addition. Bay is a real hitter – he gets "on base" and hits balls for "extra bases" if you believe the myths – and he’d sure be a fine addition to the lineup. And, heck, the Giants have a strikeout staff, so do they really need a great left fielder?

Fight those feelings. The logic is sound. Even if you’re a UZR skeptic , Bay’s defensive reputation doesn’t improve when you disregard the statistics in favor of fan-based scouting reports. By all accounts, Bay is a lousy fielder. How lousy? Lousy enough to hurt his overall value in a big way, and he isn’t getting younger and more agile.

But Bay! In the middle of the lineup! And then you do one of those CHECK OUT MY LINEUP things after you furiously rosterbate:

Continue reading this post »

I swore I wasn't going to do another "What about this free agent?" post, but they're like crack. I'll get this over with, n00b-FanPost-style:

What about Rick Ankiel? He's a low-OBP, low-BA hacker with serious power who was busted for HGH, but didn't fall off a cliff until the season after, so maybe the decline is unrelated, but he'd be cheap on a one-year deal, and his wOBA was just above .360 the previous two years, yet his defense isn't great shakes, though his arm is tops, and left-handed hitters usually don't hit for power in San Francisco, but maybe Ankiel is an exception. Thoughts????

Ugh. I hate the offseason. What's even worse is that when rosterbating, you have to look at things from the Giants' warped perspective. "So, assuming that Eugenio Velez is a leadoff hitter and corner outfielder worth starting, and assuming that John Bowker is not a good soldier who can help a baseball team by soldiering, what free agents should we look at?"

Continue reading this post »

The slow progression of offseason hope-munching continues. The Giants lost out on Nick Johnson because they weren't willing to offer a second year. Remind yourself of this in May, when Johnson is on the DL for psoriasis or something. Or remind yourself in October, when he takes a bases-loaded walk to win a World Series game. I would have given a second year, but I understand why there wasn't a team willing to do so. I'm not going to blame the Giants for not going all in.

Chone Figgins was too expensive, and if he doesn't put up a couple more seasons like his last, he isn't going to be worth it. Matt Holliday is going to get $100M, and Jason Bay is going to get $90M to go with his sketchy defense. I can't complain about a team not wanting to commit to those sorts of luxuries. Those aren't the once-in-a-decade offensive forces the Giants are looking for, but they'll be paid like the are.

I'm not going to blame the Giants for not trading Madison Bumgarner for a pre-arbitration cleanup hitter who doesn't exist. I'm not going to blame them for not wanting to part with Thomas Neal or Jonathan Sanchez for Dan Uggla.

Continue reading this post »

More photos » by Kevin P. Casey - AP

You can run, but your Dodger past will catch up with you. I'd like to think that being consumed by your Dodger past looks similar to when the bad guys died in Ghost.

Browse more photos »

Sometimes a meme comes around that I just don’t get. I was all in on those LOLCats – heck, I’m pretty sure I started them – but I can’t get into the Talk Like a Pirate Day, for one. It’s a joke that I don’t get, and I’m pretty sure I don’t care to.

The Giants-related meme I don’t get is that Adrian Beltre would be a good idea. I know the science behind the idea; Beltre’s road splits away from Seattle are very impressive, and his defense is stellar. All things being equal, he’d be a nice player to take a chance on. But here’s what scares me…

Continue reading this post »

From the Miami Herald:

During the Marlins’ Dan Uggla trade talks with San Francisco, Giants players who were discussed include right-hander Jonathan Sanchez (8-12, 4.24 ERA; no-hitter last season); lefty Clayton Tanner (a top minor-league pitcher) and a midlevel pitching prospect.

I'm sure the weather was discussed too. Uggla for midwestern cold front! Which is to say, the Giants aren't giving up Sanchez, and the Marlins don't want an arbitration case in return for a player they're trading because he makes too much in arbitration.

When I cringed at the inclusion of Tanner -- a C+ prospect, at best -- it made me ask myself what I would be willing to include for two years of a fairly pricey Dan Uggla. If we go by the newest update of the Community Prospect List, here would be my response if a specific prospect were traded:

Continue reading this post »