SB Nation User Blog: Grant

SBN Awards: NL MVP

Grant — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 04:46:15 -0000

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	Pts
1	Albert Pujols	St. Louis Cardinals	31	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	434
2	Hanley Ramirez	Florida Marlins	-	6	8	11	2	1	2	-	-	-	220
3	Chase Utley	Philadelphia Phillies	-	7	11	2	3	1	-	1	-	1	192
4	Prince Fielder	Milwaukee Brewers	-	5	4	4	7	7	1	-	-	-	186
5	Troy Tulowitzki	Colorado Rockies	-	4	1	5	2	3	3	4	1	2	134
6	Tim Lincecum	San Francisco Giants	-	4	1	-	1	2	2	3	1	-	79
7	Ryan Howard	Philadelphia Phillies	-	4	-	1	4	1	-	-	3	1	79
8	Ryan Zimmerman	Washington Nationals	-	-	1	3	3	3	3	1	-	2	79
9	Adrian Gonzalez	San Diego Padres	-	-	1	-	3	3	2	4	3	4	71
10	Pablo Sandoval	San Francisco Giants	-	-	-	1	2	2	2	3	4	3	57
11	Matt Kemp	Los Angeles Dodgers	-	-	1	1	1	1	5	3	-	1	56
12	Ryan Braun	Milwaukee Brewers	-	-	2	-	-	2	2	1	1	-	39
13	Chris Carpenter	St. Louis Cardinals	-	-	-	-	2	1	1	-	1	2	25
14	Derrek Lee	Chicago Cubs	-	-	-	-	-	2	1	1	3	2	25
15	Andre Ethier	Los Angeles Dodgers	-	-	-	-	1	2	2	-	-	-	24
16	Adam Wainwright	St. Louis Cardinals	-	-	-	1	-	-	1	1	4	1	23
17	Javier Vazquez	Atlanta Braves	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	1	2	1	16
18	Matt Holliday	St. Louis Cardinals	-	-	1	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	12
19	Joey Votto	Cincinnati Reds	-	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	11
20	Mark Reynolds	Arizona Diamondbacks	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	1	2	10
21	Todd Helton	Colorado Rockies	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	7
22	Jayson Werth	Philadelphia Phillies	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	1	6
23	Adam Dunn	Washington Nationals	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	3	5
24	Juan Pierre	Los Angeles Dodgers	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	4
25	Justin Upton	Arizona Diamondbacks	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	4
26	Raul Ibanez	Philadelphia Phillies	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	4
27	Ubaldo Jimenez	Colorado Rockies	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	4
28	Brian McCann	Atlanta Braves	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	-	4
29	Dan Haren	Arizona Diamondbacks	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	-	4
30	Michael Bourn	Houston Astros	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	3
31	Yadier Molina	St. Louis Cardinals	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	3
32	Nyjer Morgan	Washington Nationals	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1
33	Yunel Escobar	Atlanta Braves	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1

My ballot:

Albert Pujols
Hanley Ramirez
Chase Utley
Pablo Sandoval
Prince Fielder
Troy Tulowitski
Adrian Gonzalez
Tim Lincecum
Adam Wainwright
Chris Carpenter

The last three slots were my way of saying, "Hey, pitchers should contend too. Just, uh, not on my ballot." Obvious homerism in play with my Sandoval vote, especially since I didn't even include Ryan Zimmerman on my ballot. I'm pretty sure there's no defensive difference between Sandoval and Zimmerman, so I'm not too regretful. Ahem.

Hey, it's better than a fourth-place vote for Todd Helton or second-place vote for Joey Votto, at least.

Right-handed hitters and the power of money

Grant — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 19:34:57 -0000

Today's goal: stopping the "Free agent hitters won't come to the Giants because of the huge ballpark" myth. I don't know for certain it's a myth, mind you, but I have a pretty good idea. I'm not out there, talking to free agent hitters, hearing them laugh off suggestions that AT&T Park will depress their numbers. But here's my logic:

Point #1

AT&T Park isn't a pitcher's park any more. It was a few years ago. Now it's not. Ballparks are funny like that. Last year, AT&T Park was actually more favorable to hitters. To simplify park factors to an embarrassing degree: take the runs scored by the Giants at home and on the road, take the runs scored by their opponents during the same games, and figure out how all of the runs were distributed*. It's more complicated than that, but the important point to note is that park factors have nothing to do with how good or bad a particular offense is in a given season.

Point #2

Agents know things that will make them more money. Their hearts pump not blood, but a viscous, green sludge that is made from liquified hundred dollar bills and the tears of children who were just told their favorite player signed with the Yankees. This change doesn't just occur in nature; they have to work toward it. And if the Giants are offering $1M more to the client of an agent, which would mean that the agent's cut would be substantially more if the player would sign with the Giants, the agent needs to have information at his disposal that might ease the concerns of his client. So agents all know about park factors. They're intimately aware of them because not being familiar with them could cost them millions of dollars.

If a player has to choose between a couple of teams, it's not the agent who has to find parking in the Haight on a Saturday night. He doesn't care where the player ends up, apart from the standard close-working-relationship platitudes that can disappear quickly over a million dollar difference. So the agent needs to be able to say, "Look, that place gets a bad rap, but it's really not a pitcher's park anymore. People think of it like the Astrodome or Petco Park, but it's just not like that."

That's the bulk of the argument, but I don't really see how it's refutable with anything other than the idea that some agents might have been locked in a closet as kids by a bunch of numbers and facts, like Brian Sabean was, but that's a stretch. Good agents and even mediocre agents would know this; it would take an especially bad agent to tell Jason Bay or Matt Holliday, gee, maybe that scary park does gobble up home runs, so take less money elsewhere.

Comparatively high state taxes? Cost of living? Home runs disappearing for one-dimensional, left-handed power hitters? Those are legitimate reasons why free agent hitters might not want to come to San Francisco when they could go somewhere else for the same money. AT&T Park as an offense-suppressing bogeyman? Get outta here. And agents know it.

_{* For example: The Giants scored two of their three runs this season at home, therefore AT&T Park was a "hitter's park."}

SBN Awards: NL Cy Young

Grant — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 17:15:41 -0000

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Tim Lincecum	San Francisco Giants	18	13	-	129
2	Chris Carpenter	St. Louis Cardinals	9	4	7	64
3	Adam Wainwright	St. Louis Cardinals	4	4	10	42
4	Javier Vazquez	Atlanta Braves	-	5	7	22
5	Dan Haren	Arizona Diamondbacks	-	3	4	13
6	Ubaldo Jimenez	Colorado Rockies	-	1	1	4
7	Cliff Lee	Philadelphia Phillies	-	-	1	1
8	Jair Jurrjens	Atlanta Braves	-	-	1	1

My vote: Brad Penny, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter. Wainwright over Carpenter because of the innings pitched advantage. Penny over Lincecum because Penny had four wins in six starts, which is a 67% chance of a win. Lincecum was good, but he couldn't even crack 50%.

Wait, maybe I voted for Lincecum. I'll have to find my ballot. Either way, I'm reppin' the Giants, baby.

And those of you who don't want Lincecum to win because of a possible increased arbitration award: for shame. A new lawnmower would be a much more practical birthday gift than a $200 bottle of bourbon and a milk crate filled with pornography. But, go on, ask me which one I'd rather have. Don't be, I say, don't be so practical, kid. You'll miss out on the good things in life.

Free Agency, Part Two: Our greatest fears

Grant — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 22:15:27 -0000

The flipside. One player you’re absolutely terrified that the Giants will sign. Cull free agent list, and name your guy.

I have three nominations for coveted Annual Gary Matthews, Jr. Do Not Want Award:

The Overpaid, Overcommitted, and Over Here

Jason Bay will get close to $100M, and that just might work for an AL team. Bay’s a remarkably consistent hitter, and he’s been healthy throughout his career. His defense is pretty spotty, but he’s still a net positive as long as he’s hitting. On the Giants, though, he’d be paid like a franchise player. With Zito and Rowand making a combined $100,000,000,000,000 over the next three years, adding Bay would pretty much be the last free agent foray for a while.

As soon as Bay is on the Giants, he’ll remember that he’s over 30 and fall off a cliff offensively. And the Giants will have three years of the most hilarious outfield coverage in baseball, especially if right field is filled by a rangeless goober as well. This is my dream; this is my nightmare.

Pure, uncut, ignorance

"Man, this team needs an RBI man. Saaaay, Jermaine Dye is available. He gets RBIs. This offseason stuff sure is easy. Saaaaay, Newhart reruns are on! Good thing my work is done here."

I’m not wild about using UZR to predict future performance – that’s not really what it was designed for – but Dye’s UZR hints that he’s played the outfield like a thumbless Glenallen Hill for the last three years, and that age is only going to make things worse. You don’t put a clomper like that in the outfield unless his offense is stellar enough to force your hand. A .340 OBP in a hitter’s park is not stellar, and it’s not a given that he’ll produce even that going forward.

I’m not unreasonable. Now that Sabean is back, all I want him to do is honestly evaluate why his offenses have been at the bottom of the league for the past six years. A Dye signing – "35 years young, plenty of homers and RBI, what’s not to like?" – would be an obvious indication that Sabean thinks that he’s just been unlucky with his roster-building philosophies. It wasn’t his fault, for example, that Rowand stopped hitting 30 home runs when he came to San Francisco. Gag.

Bengie Molina

This category is populated by Bengie Molina. A man who gets paid to evaluate baseball players is right now worried about how the offense is going to make up for Molina’s offensive production. He’s thinking, man, it makes sense to give Posey a shot, but who’s going to drive in the runs? Is it worth it, he wonders, to commit to a second or third year to Molina if it guarantees that all of those runs are driven in next year? That would block Posey, but then the runs would be driven in. And runs need to be driven in, or the offense will be even worse! What a dilemma.

Again, we follow an organization that is convinced that Molina helps an offense, whereas the rest of the civilized world realizes that a sub-.300 on-base percentage coming from the slowest player in baseball is something to avoid. Bringing back Molina is finding your wife in bed with one of her students after you’ve already read the e-mails between the two. I mean, you knew, but seeing it in action just hammers the ungodliness home.

I think Molina scares me more than any of the other free agents. At least we can pretend with Dye and Bay – poor defense is much harder to quantify on a day-to-day basis, especially when they’re improving on the offense from last season. But Molina grounding into double plays, stopping at third on a long double, and weakly flying out to the outfield for another two seasons? Assuming Bochy will know how to transition from a veteran catcher to a rookie catcher? I’ll set a series of small fires if that happens, and I can’t promise that they’ll be on inanimate objects.

SBN Awards: NL Rookie of the Year

Grant — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 21:14:23 -0000

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Tommy Hanson	Atlanta Braves	9	9	6	78
2	J.A. Happ	Philadelphia Phillies	6	9	7	64
3	Andrew McCutchen	Pittsburgh Pirates	8	3	5	54
4	Chris Coghlan	Florida Marlins	7	5	4	54
5	Dexter Fowler	Colorado Rockies	-	3	1	10
6	Randy Wells	Chicago Cubs	-	-	6	6
7	Garrett Jones	Pittsburgh Pirates	1	-	-	5
8	Casey McGehee	Milwaukee Brewers	-	1	2	5
9	Seth Smith	Colorado Rockies	-	1	-	3

Note that Pablo Sandoval would have been a unanimous choice if he had 15 fewer at-bats in 2008. It's hard to complain about the decision to play him then, though. When a guy's ready, he should play. Worrying about potential awards a player may or may not be eligible for the following season: weenie talk.

FYI: My ballot was Hanson, Happ, and Coghlan, in that order. Close race.

SBN Awards: NL Manager of the Year

Grant — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 00:10:21 -0000

Rk	Manager	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Jim Tracy	Colorado Rockies	24	1	2	125
2	Tony LaRussa	St. Louis Cardinals	3	7	10	46
3	Fredi Gonzalez	Florida Marlins	2	6	5	33
4	Joe Torre	Los Angeles Dodgers	-	9	2	29
5	Charlie Manuel	Philadelphia Phillies	-	3	5	14
6	Bruce Bochy	San Francisco Giants	1	1	1	9
7	Bobby Cox	Atlanta Braves	-	1	4	7
8	Bud Black	San Diego Padres	-	1	1	4
9	John Russell	Pittsburgh Pirates	-	1	-	3

Go ahead. Ask me if that's my first-place vote for Bochy. The answer is after the jump!

No.

Scouring the free agent market

Grant — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 22:38:17 -0000

One player you want. Cull the free agent list, and name your guy.

It’s a rosterbation sensation!

Nick Johnson is my guy, and I know it might not be especially rational. If Nick Johnson were a regular reader, he would probably raise his eyebrows at the suggestion that the Giants should spend a lot of money on an oft-injured, 30-year-old who plays a position at which the Giants have a decent option.

Per Rotoworld: Nick Johnson is going on the 60-day DL after raising, then straining, his eyebrows. The condition, incredulitis, is believed to be chronic.

But I’m an on-base percentage slut. Can’t get enough. Guy’s gotta have it. Mmmmm, on-base percentage: you got what I need. Mmm.

Johnson had a fantastic on-base percentage last year. He always does when he’s in the lineup. He isn’t much of a power guy – heck, he only had eight home runs last year, which is Ishikawa territory – but that’s easy to ignore when he’s putting up sweet, sweet on-base percentages. Mmmmm. And as weird as it sounds, I still think Johnson is learning how to hit. Sure, he’s 30 already, and he’s been around for eight seasons, but he’s only been healthy for, oh, 12 games or so.

"Gee, Grant," you say, "isn’t it a bad idea to sign over-30 guys who rarely stay healthy?" To which I respond, "lalalalalalalalala" with my fingers in my ears. On-base percentage, you punishing-yet-fair dominatrix: what are you about to get me into?

I don’t mind Ryan Garko on a roster, but with an organization that has Jesus Guzman, I’m not sure that there’s a good reason to pay Garko what he’s going to get in arbitration. He doesn’t run, and he doesn’t field, which is all pretty discouraging for a .280/.350/.470 guy (in the best-case scenario, even). FanGraphs says the difference between Garko and Johnson has been anywhere between one to four wins, depending on the season you pick. That’s pretty substantial, especially for a team with only one hitter who is a decent bet to be above average next season.

I’ll probably delete this post in three years, when Johnson is in the last year of a 3/$24M deal that provided his team with a total of 200 combined plate appearances. For now, though, Johnson is the only name-brand free agent in whom I have any interest.

I have a problem.

Your one guy, if you please. Don't do that thing where you post the whole lineup after your 156 moves are made. One guy, dang it.

Star Pitcher Pinched

Grant — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 19:41:48 -0000

by Grant on Nov 5, 1923 2:00 PM PST

Star Pitcher Sullies Team, Caught With Hooch

Teammates View Art Nehf Askance, Mindful of Series Loss

With the hopes and year-long dreams of post-championship attaboys dashed by the cross-town behemoth Yankees, whose steadfastness in the face of worthy competition proved too daunting for even our nifty boys, star pitcher Art Nehf was caught with a hip flask full of hooch, besmirching his name and reputation as well as that of his fair team.

Though Nehf's doggy, Joe Brooks appearance has always led this observer to believe that he partook of a belt of giggle water whenever convenient, the official pinch only confirms our suspicions. Nehf proved to be quite the sap by carrying the skee on the hip; though he was not zozzled at the time of his arrest, there is every indication that he was planning on going hoary-eyed through the streets of New York, stumbling from speakeasy to speakeasy.

Far be it from this observer to be the town killjoy, but Nehf's predilection for getting owled or fried to the hat whenever the opportunity arose quite possibly could be the reason for the Giants' crushing defeat in the Contest of Contests this solemn autumn. For no Yankees player has yet to be popped for panther sweat in the past year, which just might account for their uncanny ability to hit on all sixes when their backs were against the Polo Grounds center field wall. No impartial party has yet reported that fellas like Wally Pipp, Whitey Witt, or "Babe" Ruth have besotted themselves in a quest to get canned from whatever bathtub skee dribbled into their cup, so we can only assume that their gumption, discipline, and fortitude served them well.

The youth of today deserve more from Art Nehf, whose swanky glad rags prove a tell-tale sign of the gin-mill gadfly who lost the final game of a grueling Fall contest, possibly while splifficated. For shame, Mr. Nehf. For shame.

Hate the Yankees, not baseball.

Grant — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 21:56:11 -0000

So it begins. I’ll bold the following, just so you know that I’m not crazy.

The Yankees have an inherent advantage. They committed hundreds of millions in one offseason to bring in C.C. Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, and A.J. Burnett, which is something that no other team can do. Signing those players is a big reason why the Yankees won a championship. The Yankees have an inherent advantage.

So I’ll never argue that payroll doesn’t matter. But I was listening to KNBR, and the hosts were going off on baseball’s lack of competitive balance. (If a KNBR intern can leave the following on a post-it note on Bob Fitzgerald’s desk, that’d be just peachy: according to the USA Today, the Cardinals were 17th among MLB teams in payroll, the Rockies were 18th, and the Twins were 24th. So please retire the "seven out of the top eight payrolls made the playoffs" line. Thank you.) Yes, the Yankees had an advantage. It was a substantial advantage. But, like every single championship team, they needed a little luck to go along with their spending, drafting, and trading.

The Yankees featured a starting lineup with four players who were 35 or older: Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, Johnny Damon, and Hideki Matsui. Not only did all four stay healthy, but all four each had some of the best seasons of their respective careers. The Yankees deserve credit for developing Jeter and Posada, and they deserve credit for being able to separate the Damons from the Rowands, but having all four elder statesmen produce at the level they did is insane. And it wasn’t just the ballpark inflating their numbers; they all had legitimately fantastic seasons.

The Yankees outperformed their Pythagorean projection by eight games, which is also pretty danged lucky. The bullpen was anchored by a 40-year-old, a homegrown prospect, a 17th-round pick, a minor league free agent, and a guy who put up a 5.9 K/9 in the Mexican League two years ago. That’s a testament to solid scouting and player evaluation; it’s also a big grab-bag of luck and fortuitous circumstances.

Factor in some expected declines for any of the over-30 set, throw a couple of gas cans in the place of David Robertson and Alfredo Aceves, and the Yankees have a tougher road. You could do those kinds of hypotheticals until it gets ridiculous – "If Alex Rodriguez found a power ring on Ryxxl-4, he’d be a new Green Lantern, and he wouldn’t even play baseball." – but the larger point remains: Money, and money alone, isn’t all it takes to win a championship. There has to be a series of astute maneuvers – picking up Nick Swisher for a sack of doorknobs, not trading Melky Cabrera for Alan Embree, sticking with Robinson Cano after a down year – and a bunch of luck to go along with the money.

So, yes, the Yankees had an advantage. They’re able to brush off contracts like Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright like no other team can. When something that was legitimately unlucky happened – Chien-Ming Wang going Scott Munter on the AL – it’s more than luck that the Yankees had $500B in offseason acquisitions to help round out the rotation. The, uh, Royals don’t have that luxury.

But the Yankees didn’t win the championship last offseason. They haven’t already won the 2010 championship. Pretending anything differently is a disservice to baseball. The sport is fine, dammit.

Congratulations, Yankees. Now go eat a bowl of scorpions and break your ankles while tripping over a pile of champagne bottles because you can all screw yourselves. You and your spoiled fans can all screw yourselves. Winning a single championship would warm my heart for decades. Decades. I just want one. Can you please just give us one of your 27, you greedy, imperialistic bastards?

Great. Now I want to stab something.

Open World Series GameThread

Grant — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 21:50:45 -0000

You know what are awesome? Game sevens. C'mon, Phillies.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Pedro Martinez	5-1	9	9	0	0	0	0	44.2	48	18	18	7	8	37	3.63	1.25

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Andy Pettitte	14-8	32	32	0	0	0	0	194.2	193	101	90	20	76	148	4.16	1.38