Let me just say that the ad on this site for "live fortune telling" with a fee quoted, very much offends me.

What's with that John?  You're in favor of gullible people being scammed by such cretins?

You'd figure that the average person around here is above that, but based on the "Who'll Win the World Series" thread, I'm not so sure.

Don't laugh, Snider + the 2007 draft class probably moves the Jays up from 28th-30th to somewhere in the 21st-23rd range.  See link below for stats and analysis.

http://www.battersbox.ca/

1. Travis Snider, OF
   
2. Brett Cecil, LHP
   
3. Kevin Ahrens, 3B/SS
   
4. Robinzon Diaz, C
   
5. Yohermyn Chavez, OF
   
6. John Tolisano, 2B
   
7. Ricky Romero, LHP
   
8. David Purcey, LHP
   
9. Kyle Ginley, RHP
   
10. Marc Rzepczynski, LHP
    
11. Joel Collins, C
    
12. Eric Eiland, OF
    
13. J.P. Arencibia, C
    
14. Josh Banks, RHP
    
15. Justin Jackson, SS
    
16. Brian Jeroloman, C
    
17. Chi-Hung Cheng, LHP
    
18. Lee Gronkiewicz RHP
    
19. Adrian Martin, RHP
    
20. Sergio Santos, SS

Right now, based on current performance, if you had to go into a best of 5 or 7 series....

This was just discussed on tonights Jays telecast.

Halladay
Burnett
McGowan

I would go to war with this threesome.  

Who would you counter with?  Realizing of course that the the sample size is ridiculously small.  LOL

Hey guys, very deep league.  I need to add a SS to my roster. (no 2007 draft picks) I'm at a loss. Please help.

All of the following are gone. (no particular order, and some I don't know):)

Brandon Wood
Alexi Casilla
Erick Aybar
Reid Brignac
Carlos Truinfel
Elvis Andrus
Chris Nelson
Brent Lillibridge
German Duran
Sean Rodriguez
Sergio Santos
Paul Kelly
Joaquin Arias
Angel Sanchez
Josh Rodriguez
Hector Gomez
Stephen King
Yunel Escobar
Emmanuel Burriss
Ian Desmond
Adrian Cardenas
Brent Brewer

Any ideas???

All input appreciated.

The Sox Carter seems to get all of the press, but the Diamondbacks Carter is quietly having a great year repeating AAA at Tucson.

Deric McKamey at Baseball HQ really likes Carter's (Arizona) bat, and figures that some AL team should trade for him and give him a shot.  He thinks he could be a Travis Hafner lite.

He has the following line playing 1B (badly) for Tucson

0.339/0.399/0.531 with 12 homers and 34 doubles.

Looks like Connor Jackson is being shopped, so maybe Carter will get a shot later this year.

The Sox Carter is younger and obviously is the better prospect at this point, but I think the other Chris Carter shouldn't be totally overlooked.

He went 5-for-5 with a homer and four runs scored yesterday in AA and he isn't 21 yet.

He's now .380/.465/.535 in 71 AB's and already has more doubles than all of last year.

I wonder if this is still a relatively small sample size, or if he has worked himself back to legiti
mate prospect status.

If he continues anything close to this pace over the next couple of months where would he rank in a top prospects list?

I'm just wondering if any of these guys still have even a small chance of having productive major league careers.

All were at one point quite highly touted, but have seemingly fallen of the face of the earth.

Travis Hanson
Brian Dopirak
Matt Tuiasosopo

I held on to Dopirak in a 400 deep minor league system league, but I'm about to drop him as there seem to be many better options out there.

Opinions?

Sorry for the fantasy question, but it does involve pitchers that are still more prospects than anything else.

I would like some opinions, best/worst case scenarios for

Dustin McGowan
Angel Guzman
Edinson Volquez

I have these guys rostered in a keeper league, and I'm starting to think I'm going to go 0 for 3 in terms of one of them ending up a mid rotation starter.

Anybody with a positive outlook on any of these guys?

There hasn't been a lot of discussion related to the WBC on this site, but many in the press and on blogs and message boards have offerred their opinions and criticisms of team USA.
Poor pitching, no timely hitting, bad defense, etc.  

While all of this may be true, it has to be remembered that this is basically like the second week of spring training for all of the players.
All of that though, IMO, is quite irrelevent to the bigger picture in all of this.

A major league baseball season comprises 162 games.  Over a 162 game season great teams will have stretches of 2-8 or 3-7, great hitters will go 2 for 17 or 4 for 31 (and even much worse). Terrible pitchers with career 5.40 ERA's will pitch shutouts, Cy Young caliber pitchers will give up 8 runs in 3 innings.  Baseball isn't like football where a better team will beat an inferior opponent 8 or 9 times out of 10.  Over the course of a complete season the Devil Rays will beat the Yankees on more than one occasion.  A AAA team would probably beat their major league affiliate 3 times out of 10.

The problem with the WBC is that the sample of AB and IP is so small it that it basically renders the results meaningless.  When a 0.300 hitter faces a 4.50 ERA pitcher over a sample of 20AB it is possible for the hitter to go 1 for 20 or 12 for 20.  No matter how hard the hitter tries because he has USA on his chest his rate of success or failure is GREATLY dependent on luck when you are talking about only 20AB.  Very small differences in bat to ball contact produce hugely different results.
The purpose of a 162 game schedule is to reduce the luck factor by greatly increasing the sample size.

Now I realize that luck is a factor in all sports, but to have a baseball competition decided by one game, or even 3 games is just plain dumb.  It proves exactly nothing.

The fact that the US team was eliminated before the semi-finals doesn't say anything about the quality of US baseball, or even about the quality of this team or how well the players on the team performed.  Being spring training rusty combined with hitting in bad luck basically doomed them.

Now I'm Canadian, but the fact that Canada beat the US in that one game didn't give me any sense of national pride.  I know that is was a one game fluke, and basically a statistical anomoly.  To call it any more than that, and to read anything into which country wins this tournament is just plain foolish.    

It's looking like John is in the minority when it comes to Justin Upton.  John has him ranked 14th among hitters, which would probably put him around 20th overall.

Bryan Smith says he would put him 4th overall, and Deric McKamey has him 2nd behind Young.  I'm anticipating that BA will also rank him in the top 5.

I just recently passed on Upton to go with Billingsley in the 2nd round of my draft, and am now kicking myself.

What do you guys think?  The consensus is that he is a better player than his brother.

Minor league draft for a long term keeper.  less than 50 IP or 200 AB  This draft is 10 rounds, then there will be a 30 round major league draft.

12 teams, 5X5 roto, no salaries

So far I have picked Hermida, Billingsley, Quentin, Markakis, McCann, Aybar, and A. Miller.

I have used John's top 50's as my guide, but went with Miller because I really think he has a lot of upside.

Who would you take with your next pick?

In the middle of a minor league draft in a keeper league.
12 teams, 10 minor leaguers, 30 major leaguers (also a draft, no salaries)

So far I have picked Hermidia, Billingsley, Quentin, and Markakis.

I have been offerred Liriano for Quentin/Markakis.

I'm leaning towards pulling the trigger on this deal.

Big time conflicting opinions on this guy.

I'm about to make my 4th round pick in a minor league draft.  It's 12 teams, up to 200 ML AB's for hitters, and I so far have picked Hermida, Billingsley, and Quentin.
I will have the 47th and 50th picks.

I want to pick a catcher with one of these 2 picks, and they are available except Salty and Johjima.
Shandler has Willingham as the top rated catcher for 2006. ($22)  That just blows me away. (VMart and Mauer are at $18)

I realize that this is only for 2006, but can a case be made for picking him over all of the other good prospects for beyond 2006?

John has him ranked below at least a half dozen other guys.  McCann is also eligible in this draft.
This is a 10 player minor league draft, and will be followed by a major league draft with no salaries.
Who would you pick?

I just finished a minor league draft, am about to start a new one, and am still trying to properly evaluate where a unique case like Bobby Jenks should be slotted.

Lets say 6X6, H2H, 16 teams, (holds as a category), minor leaguers are at $1 for the first 3 years, and then may be signed to a 5 year contract at $10/per or various shorter contracts.  25 man minor league draft followed by 40 man major league auction ($300 cap)(ROY eligibility for minor league draft)

I'm wondering in such a scenario where you guys would draft Jenks in the minor league draft.

Despite his disaster of a 2005 season I decided to take a flier on Dopirak in the later rounds of my recent minor league draft.

A year ago he was the consensus Cubs top prospect, and I believe John had him at B+

So what do you guys see him doing in 2006 and beyond?  Any chance he bounces back?

I was recently involved in a 16X25 minor league draft using ROY eligibilty rules.
I had the 10th, 23rd, and 42nd picks.  My plan was to go with 3 hitters unless a pitcher dropped more than I expected.
I ended up with Marte, Guzman, and Markakis.  How do you guys think I did?
Only 3 teams drafted hitting 1,2,3.  I'm curious how everyone would rate my picks in relation to the other 2.

I recently joined a couple of keeper leagues and ended up with Carlos Quentin and Lastings Milledge in my 14 team league, and Andy Marte and Joel Guzman in my 16 team league.

So which pair would you guys rather have?

Which of these four players is the safest bet to have a very good career, and which player has the best chance to have a HOF type numbers?

I'm just finishing up a draft of minor leaguers for the new keeper league that I joined.

It's 16 teams and 25 rounds.  Eligibility is less that 50 IP or 135 AB.

The league itself is a 6X6 H2H league with most of the standard categories.  

I had the 10th pick, and went Marte, Guzman, and Markakis as my top 3.

My minor league roster.

OF - Nick Markakis, BAL
OF - Chris Carter, ARI
OF - Adam Lind, TOR
OF - Greg Golson, PHI
OF - Brent Clevlen, DET
OF - Denard Span, MIN

C - George Kottaras, SD
1B - Brian Dopirak, CHC
1B - Joey Votto, CIN
2B - Hernan Iribarren, MIL
3B - Andy Marte, BOS
SS - Joel Guzman, LAD
SS - Elvis Andrus, ATL
SS - Omar Quintanilla, COL

P - Chuck Tiffany, LAD
P - Dustin McGowan, TOR
P - Greg Miller, LAD
P - Edison Volquez, TEX
P - Ricky Romero, TOR
P - Angel Guzman, CHC
P - David Purcey, TOR
P - Dana Eveland, MIL
P - Fausto Carmona, CLE

I realize that Dopirak fell way off last year, and that Miller, and A.Guzman are longshots for health reasons, but if even one of them pans out I'll be quite happy.

My infield looks like an area of weakness, as Andrus is a long ways away and Guzman will eventually be an outfielder.  Iribarren and Votto are probably C prospects at this point.

My pitching has some guys with upside, but I didn't draft any pitchers that are projected to be closers.  

So what do you guys think?  How many of these guys will be B+ or higher in John's upcoming book? Comments appreciated.  

I'm involved in a long term keeper draft of minor leaguers.  I want to pick one more catcher, but the last 2 I was interested in were just picked.  We have 5 rounds left.  Any ideas about sleeper catchers? I already have Kottaras and want one more catcher.

Gone so far

Chris Iannetta, COL
Miguel Perez, CIN
Kurt Suzuki, OAK
Brandon Snyder, BAL
Jarrod Saltalamacchia, ATL
Michael Collins, ANA
Neil Walker, PIT
Russell Martin, LAD
Ronny Paulino, PIT
Taylor Teagarden, TEX
Guillermo Quiroz, TOR
Jeff Clement, SEA
George Kottaras, SD
Kenji Johjima, SEA
Kelly Shoppach, BOS
Curtis Thigpen, TOR
Miguel Montero, ARI
Jeff Mathis, ANA
Josh Willingham, FLA
John Jaso, TB
Angel Salome, MIL

Any other catchers with some upside left?  Suggestions greatly appreciated.

I was just looking at their list and noticed that Loney, Tiffany, and Miller didn't make it.

Quite understandable that Miller didn't make it, but I was a bit surprised that Loney and Tiffany didn't.

I was just wondering what the latest is on Loney and Tiffany as far as their chances of having good major league careers.