SB Nation User Blog: GregJP

Live Fortune Telling

GregJP — Wed, 24 Oct 2007 16:18:43 -0000

Let me just say that the ad on this site for "live fortune telling" with a fee quoted, very much offends me.

What's with that John? You're in favor of gullible people being scammed by such cretins?

You'd figure that the average person around here is above that, but based on the "Who'll Win the World Series" thread, I'm not so sure.

Jays Top 20 Prospects

GregJP — Mon, 08 Oct 2007 02:56:30 -0000

Don't laugh, Snider + the 2007 draft class probably moves the Jays up from 28th-30th to somewhere in the 21st-23rd range. See link below for stats and analysis.

http://www.battersbox.ca/

Travis Snider, OF
Brett Cecil, LHP
Kevin Ahrens, 3B/SS
Robinzon Diaz, C
Yohermyn Chavez, OF
John Tolisano, 2B
Ricky Romero, LHP
David Purcey, LHP
Kyle Ginley, RHP
Marc Rzepczynski, LHP
Joel Collins, C
Eric Eiland, OF
J.P. Arencibia, C
Josh Banks, RHP
Justin Jackson, SS
Brian Jeroloman, C
Chi-Hung Cheng, LHP
Lee Gronkiewicz RHP
Adrian Martin, RHP
Sergio Santos, SS

Best Three Starters

GregJP — Sat, 22 Sep 2007 01:55:46 -0000

Right now, based on current performance, if you had to go into a best of 5 or 7 series....

This was just discussed on tonights Jays telecast.

Halladay
Burnett
McGowan

I would go to war with this threesome.

Who would you counter with? Realizing of course that the the sample size is ridiculously small. LOL

SS Help - Fantasy Warning

GregJP — Thu, 23 Aug 2007 15:28:36 -0000

Hey guys, very deep league. I need to add a SS to my roster. (no 2007 draft picks) I'm at a loss. Please help.

All of the following are gone. (no particular order, and some I don't know):)

Brandon Wood
Alexi Casilla
Erick Aybar
Reid Brignac
Carlos Truinfel
Elvis Andrus
Chris Nelson
Brent Lillibridge
German Duran
Sean Rodriguez
Sergio Santos
Paul Kelly
Joaquin Arias
Angel Sanchez
Josh Rodriguez
Hector Gomez
Stephen King
Yunel Escobar
Emmanuel Burriss
Ian Desmond
Adrian Cardenas
Brent Brewer

Any ideas???

All input appreciated.

Chris Carter vs Chris Carter

GregJP — Sat, 21 Jul 2007 23:54:07 -0000

The Sox Carter seems to get all of the press, but the Diamondbacks Carter is quietly having a great year repeating AAA at Tucson.

Deric McKamey at Baseball HQ really likes Carter's (Arizona) bat, and figures that some AL team should trade for him and give him a shot. He thinks he could be a Travis Hafner lite.

He has the following line playing 1B (badly) for Tucson

0.339/0.399/0.531 with 12 homers and 34 doubles.

Looks like Connor Jackson is being shopped, so maybe Carter will get a shot later this year.

The Sox Carter is younger and obviously is the better prospect at this point, but I think the other Chris Carter shouldn't be totally overlooked.

Matt Tuiasosopo

GregJP — Thu, 26 Apr 2007 22:21:45 -0000

He went 5-for-5 with a homer and four runs scored yesterday in AA and he isn't 21 yet.

He's now .380/.465/.535 in 71 AB's and already has more doubles than all of last year.

I wonder if this is still a relatively small sample size, or if he has worked himself back to legiti
mate prospect status.

If he continues anything close to this pace over the next couple of months where would he rank in a top prospects list?

We Once Were Prospects

GregJP — Tue, 27 Feb 2007 22:58:09 -0000

I'm just wondering if any of these guys still have even a small chance of having productive major league careers.

All were at one point quite highly touted, but have seemingly fallen of the face of the earth.

Travis Hanson
Brian Dopirak
Matt Tuiasosopo

I held on to Dopirak in a 400 deep minor league system league, but I'm about to drop him as there seem to be many better options out there.

Opinions?

Any Hope??

GregJP — Fri, 02 Feb 2007 04:23:36 -0000

Sorry for the fantasy question, but it does involve pitchers that are still more prospects than anything else.

I would like some opinions, best/worst case scenarios for

Dustin McGowan
Angel Guzman
Edinson Volquez

I have these guys rostered in a keeper league, and I'm starting to think I'm going to go 0 for 3 in terms of one of them ending up a mid rotation starter.

Anybody with a positive outlook on any of these guys?

WBC and Sample Size

GregJP — Fri, 17 Mar 2006 09:11:24 -0000

There hasn't been a lot of discussion related to the WBC on this site, but many in the press and on blogs and message boards have offerred their opinions and criticisms of team USA.
Poor pitching, no timely hitting, bad defense, etc.

While all of this may be true, it has to be remembered that this is basically like the second week of spring training for all of the players.
All of that though, IMO, is quite irrelevent to the bigger picture in all of this.

A major league baseball season comprises 162 games. Over a 162 game season great teams will have stretches of 2-8 or 3-7, great hitters will go 2 for 17 or 4 for 31 (and even much worse). Terrible pitchers with career 5.40 ERA's will pitch shutouts, Cy Young caliber pitchers will give up 8 runs in 3 innings. Baseball isn't like football where a better team will beat an inferior opponent 8 or 9 times out of 10. Over the course of a complete season the Devil Rays will beat the Yankees on more than one occasion. A AAA team would probably beat their major league affiliate 3 times out of 10.

The problem with the WBC is that the sample of AB and IP is so small it that it basically renders the results meaningless. When a 0.300 hitter faces a 4.50 ERA pitcher over a sample of 20AB it is possible for the hitter to go 1 for 20 or 12 for 20. No matter how hard the hitter tries because he has USA on his chest his rate of success or failure is GREATLY dependent on luck when you are talking about only 20AB. Very small differences in bat to ball contact produce hugely different results.
The purpose of a 162 game schedule is to reduce the luck factor by greatly increasing the sample size.

Now I realize that luck is a factor in all sports, but to have a baseball competition decided by one game, or even 3 games is just plain dumb. It proves exactly nothing.

The fact that the US team was eliminated before the semi-finals doesn't say anything about the quality of US baseball, or even about the quality of this team or how well the players on the team performed. Being spring training rusty combined with hitting in bad luck basically doomed them.

Now I'm Canadian, but the fact that Canada beat the US in that one game didn't give me any sense of national pride. I know that is was a one game fluke, and basically a statistical anomoly. To call it any more than that, and to read anything into which country wins this tournament is just plain foolish.

Justin Upton

GregJP — Sat, 14 Jan 2006 16:59:04 -0000

It's looking like John is in the minority when it comes to Justin Upton. John has him ranked 14th among hitters, which would probably put him around 20th overall.

Bryan Smith says he would put him 4th overall, and Deric McKamey has him 2nd behind Young. I'm anticipating that BA will also rank him in the top 5.

I just recently passed on Upton to go with Billingsley in the 2nd round of my draft, and am now kicking myself.

What do you guys think? The consensus is that he is a better player than his brother.