Previous previews

Western Con Southwest Division

http://www.blazersedge.com/2009/10/27/1103031/western-conference-preview

Eastern Con Atlantic with playoffs

http://www.blazersedge.com/2009/10/22/1096652/eastern-conference-preview

Eastern Con Central Division

http://www.blazersedge.com/2009/10/16/1088307/eastern-conference-preview-central

Eastern Con Southwest Division Preview Link here:

http://www.blazersedge.com/2009/10/12/1082607/eastern-conference-preview

Sacramento Kings

Prediction: 24-58 do not make the playoffs

Depth Chart

The Kings have some good pieces.  Spencer Hawes and Jason Thompson are solid in the post.  Thompson, especially can be a great player.  He is very agile, a decent outside shot and 6’ 11” with long arms has the tools to become a very good player.  His skills still need honing but they’re there.  He played four years of college ball at Rider so there may not be much opportunity for improvement, but the more playing time he got last year the better he preformed.  He is paired with Hawes who is the Starter without a real center behind him.  He is a finesse center with a mean streak, if that makes sense.  I am not a big fan of his three point shooting, but his midrange game is handy on a team that now adds a slasher point guard and small forward in Tyreke Evans and Desmond Mason.

Neither Mason nor Evans are accomplished outside shooters, so opening up channels inside to drive will be important to the Kings’ success.  Hawes outside shooting will contribute to this as well as add a kick out option, especially for the new point guard, Evans.  I am glad that Evans will be giving the reigns as a rookie, especially on a team with no current playoff aspirations.  You might as well develop your talent in the beginning rather than put a more experienced player, who’ll help you in the short run.  Although, in this case, I am not sure the Beno Udrih is that much better of a player.

Francisco Garcia is out for quite awhile, and that’s unfortunate because he can shoot, handle the ball and is a smart player.  He is a solid role player and much different that Mason who takes his spot.  Mason will provide some defense, but most of his offense is opportunistic.  This should bode particularly well for this team with the new offensive philosophy based around the up-tempo, fast break game.  Of course, the main offensive weapon is Kevin Martin.  With an ugly release, but deadly results, a good handle and length to finish at the rim, Martin is one of the best scorers in the league.  He isn’t a superstar, and probably won’t be until he adds some other aspects to his game.  Right now he is just a scorer, but as this team develops he could be an important piece, but not the piece to get back to the playoffs

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Golden State Warriors

Prediction: 34-48 do not make the playoffs

Depth Chart

This team is super dysfunctional.  Three years ago they were the talk of the playoffs, the fans were back and the core was great.  The just missed out on the playoffs the next year and shortly after the heart of the team, Baron Davis was lost to free agency.  In his place Monta Ellis was to take over, but that never happened after a mo-ped injury.  The rabbit hole got deeper and other pieces started to rust and now it seems that total hell has broken loose.  Stephen Jackson wants a trade, and announced it publicly, Monta Ellis says he can’t play with Stephen Curry, Corey Maggette doesn’t like playing power forward and I am sure there are other issues that have yet to come to the surface.

I don’t like this team’s configuration.  Stephen Jackson needs to go, not only for the sake of ridding a cancer but to get Anthony Randolph into the starting lineup.  This guy is good.  His ball handling has improved, he’s an athletic freak, above average playmaker and the potential to be a dominant defender, especially as a small forward.  He has to play to get better, and his minutes crunch behind Maggette and Jackson doesn’t help his cause.  The other young player who needs time is Stephen Curry.  Why Monta says they can’t play together doesn’t have much weight.  I see, from a defensive standpoint, why there could be some problems, but offensively it seems like a good match.  Neither are natural point guards, but should be able to play off each other nicely.  Curry is a great shooter, and Ellis is a slasher/driver type, shouldn’t they be able to find each other?  That job comes down to Coach Nelson.  For a coach that has a lot of control it seems quite the contrary.  A lot of his players don’t seem to buy-in to what he’s selling, and chemistry-wise that is obviously very detrimental.

At the center position, Andris Biedrins quietly goes along as a very efficient hustle player with a nice touch.  He is very slight, but he uses it to his advantage as he slithers his way for rebounds and tips.  He has a surprising better touch around the basket than scouts give him credit for and despite is small frame he gets into the thick of things under the basket and on the floor.  He is tough, just not strong.  Ronny Turiaf provides more of the brawn under the basket.  He is shorter, but has long arms and good timing on blocks.  He is another one of those perfect role players for this squad once they decide to rebuild instead of treading along.  Curry, Randolph, Biedrins, and maybe if Ellis turns his attitude around could make a nice core.

LA Clippers

Prediction: 35-47 do not make the playoffs

Depth Chart

This team had a chance to make the playoffs before the season started, but now that Blake Griffin will miss about two months of his rookie year, it seems less likely.  Rookies need all the help they can get when they first start out.  Coming back into game shape will take a lot longer than the two months of injury recovery, and that will be against guys who are already in their midseason form.  Griffin is a good player though, so having him at all will be a boost, just maybe not the same boost they were looking for.  In the meantime, the Clippers are hoping that they can have a nice positive stretch, then reintegrate Griffin back onto a team as they hit their stride.

The positives are that the team is surprisingly deep.  Marcus Camby could become the starter at power forward with DeAndre Jordan able to back up the center spot.  Craig Smith is a good backup at power forward already.  Camby won’t provide the offense Griffin can, but this team isn’t looking for offense as much because of Eric Gordon, Baron Davis and Al Thornton. Camby just needs to provide defense, and make the shots when he has them.  Something he has done well over the last four years.  With Baron Davis losing weight, a better backup in Sebastian Telfair and the emergence of Eric Gordon as a go to scorer, the Clippers have a solid rotation in the backcourt.  While small, Rasual Butler will also spend some time there and is a good defender when necessary.  It is very important for Baron Davis and Telfair to distribute the ball early in the shot clocks.  Baron Davis has a bad habit of dribbling too much, then the team is left with a bad shot against the clock.  If Baron Davis gets it inside to Camby (an underrated passer) or Chris Kamen first, the offense will flow much better.  Kamen is a player who is a lot better than people think.  He puts up solid numbers; unfortunately his hair leaves something to be desired.

This team should also be able to run.  With Gordon and Thornton (an excellent finisher on the break and Davis or Telfair running the show, there should be plenty of easy baskets off the break.  If a lot of things go right, and Griffin gets back into the swing of things early off his injury, this team has a shot at the playoffs.

Phoenix Suns

Prediction: 37-45 7th seed playoffs

Depth Chart

The Suns will be better than last year.  They are going back to Nash’s signature style;  running, quick shots, leaving on the break.  This also means they are going to be poor on defense.  Steve Nash is awesome at most things, dribbling, passing, shooting, dancing, soccer, and charities to name a few.  One thing he isn’t good at, is defense.  Amare Stoudemire doesn’t even try to play defense.  This has been one of the biggest hindrances of the Suns the last 5 years in the playoffs.  Nash, at 35 isn’t going to magically start excelling at defense, but I do think that his attention to it, may be easier.  Last year they tried to fast break with Shaq brining up the rear (how did it taste, I wonder?).  Terry Porter got Shaq involved in the offense, but it hindered all the players around them to the extent of borderline depression.  There was no joy anymore.  The good news is that the joy is back, and Steve Nash is as happy as ever.  That will go along way.  The personnel has definitely gotten worse, but they’ll play above themselves in this system.

The starting lineup san Shaq returns with Channing Frye at center.  Frye is a good addition for this style of play.  He can hit the three, is much more agile than O’Neal was so the pick and roll, or more important pick and pop will be very effective. On the wings, Jason Richardson and Grant Hill will get the majority of minutes, and although Grant Hill no longer drinks Sprite, his legs are finally good to go and really, he hasn’t played as much basketball as his age suggests due to such injuries. He is still a solid veteran with a basketball IQ that can make up for his shortcomings in athleticism.  Jason Richardson has never seemed to fit in in Phoenix, but I think the refreshed Nash will help reinvigorate him.  When is the last time you’ve seen a highlight dunk of Richardson?  Feels like its been awhile.  Playing behind these two are Jared Dudley, and Leandro Barbosa, who is a blur with the ball, and despite an unorthodox release, is a good outside shooter. 

The Suns are a playoff team for one reason though, Steve Nash.  If he can find that magic of the three or four years ago teams, he will be one to be reckoned with on the offensive end. I would look for him to find his own shot this year and play a lot of two man games with Frye and Amare Stoudamire who will again try and stay healthy.  As Nash goes the Suns go.

LA Lakers

Prediction: 66-16 1st seed playoffs

Depth Chart

Returning champions don’t often take risks in acquiring new players, especially starters known for their volatility.  Ron Artest is better than Trevor Ariza, as long as he doesn’t disrupt team chemistry.  To his credit, Artest had a good stay in Houston with the Rockets, and they came dangerously close to beating the Lakers, even once Yao Ming went down.  As long as Artest plays his role as defender and fourth offensive option, the Lakers will have a better than good shot to repeat.

What else can you say about these guys.  Kobe Bryant got a bit older, but he’s still in his prime, and he has more help than he ever has.  Pau Gasol is in his prime, maybe he is a little worn down after the postseason and Eurobasket, but he’s been healthy.  Andrew Bynum is back to health, finally proclaiming he will be injury free for the entire year (to be honest his last injury was pretty unlucky). Derek Fisher is old, but his game is not predicated on athleticism.  Lamar Odom can play small forward, power forward and has totally bought into his sixth man role after resigning with the Lakers.

The Lakers also have the confidence and swagger from winning the finals.  It wasn’t a fluke, they were there the year before.  Even minor role players like Sasha Vujacic have confidence because of it.  And there is also one person on the Lakers that steps up more than expected.  Two years ago it was ‘Machine’ Vujacic, last year it was Trevor Ariza.  This year I think Adam Morrison will get a chance to play if Luke Walton gets hurt.  Morrison will find his shooting touch and provide what ‘Machine’ did two years ago.  There isn’t much not to like as a Laker fan.  They are playing to win again and know they are at the top.

Previous previews

Eastern Con  Atlantic with playoffs

http://www.blazersedge.com/2009/10/22/1096652/eastern-conference-preview

Eastern Con Central Division

http://www.blazersedge.com/2009/10/16/1088307/eastern-conference-preview-central

Eastern Con Southwest Division Preview Link here:

http://www.blazersedge.com/2009/10/12/1082607/eastern-conference-preview

Houston Rockets

Prediction: 31-51 do not make the playoffs

Depth Chart

Houston will probably be better than this.  Record-wise, they’ll probably win more games than I am giving them credit for, and they will be a tough team to play against every night.  Rick Adelman is a great coach.  He is mostly known for getting his teams out on the break, the Blazers and Kings of yore, but he showed last year when he got the Rockets to be one of the best defensive teams in the league and play a slower pace to assure Yao Ming was still a viable part of the offense.  Of course it helps when you have a agile 7’ 5” guy manning the middle in Yao, and a physically, probably crazy small forward in Ron Artest.  Now here’s the thing, neither of these two are with the team this year.  Granted, Trevor Ariza replaces Artest defensively, and can probably do about as good a job, and to start the season he will be paired on the wings with Shane Battier until Tracy McGrady returns.  This should give the Rockets some good perimeter defending, but neither Battier and especially Ariza won’t be able to take as many chances without a big stopper clogging the lane behind them.

Chuck Hayes is a 6’ 7” center, but is an absolute tree trunk down low.  He shouldn’t have too many problems against the stronger centers, but tall jump shooters or long armed agile post centers could give him problems because of his lack of height.  David Andersen is taller as the backup, but also a lot softer in the post.  Luis Scola returns as the power forward and will need to step up much more this year as the second option.  He’ll probably be the first player to touch the ball in the offensive set in the high post.  He can make plays from here, whether passing, driving or hitting the jumper.  His role is heightened until McGrady returns.

Right now, the key to this team, again, until McGrady’s return, is Aaron Brooks.  He has showed he can score because of his quickness and his outside shot, and last year’s playoff series against the Blazers and Lakers showed he can step up when needed.  He is now the most dynamic offense player the Rockets have and will be looked upon to create his own shot.  It is not as important for Brooks to run the offense as one might think.  Adelman has always done well with shoot first point guards, Terry Porter, Jason Williams, Mike Bibby, to name more than a few.  If Brooks can become more consistent, he could easily help form a good trio when TMac and Yao return.

Memphis Grizzlies

Prediction: 34-48 do not make the playoffs

Depth Chart

This team could easily blow up into the failed experiment it can be, but I have to think, talent alone will help this team win games.  Sure, everyone on the team is a shoot first player.  The defense, specifically interior, is atrocious with Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol, but again if this team starts out well, and everyone stays happy they could do alright before the inevitable crash.

The biggest single thing that could help this team is an injury.  If one of the five starters misses a significant time it could be a classic addition by subtraction.  For example if Rudy Gay goes down and Sam Young takes his place in the starting lineup, Young isn’t going to complain about lack of shots.  He is a rookie, knows his place.  Rudy Gay on the other had thinks, and maybe rightly so, that this should be his team, whether he takes ownership or not.  He wants his shots, thinks he needs them, and will probably disrupt team chemistry whether he means to or not.  It isn’t just Gay, though, Iverson, assuming he doesn’t buy into coming off the bench for the second straight year, could create the same problem.  To make matters worse, he’ll start the season injured and then come back into the rotation.  I think Iverson will get injured this year as well, causing even more amount of time to be lost.

Zach Randolph can score and rebound, but he wouldn’t be mistaken for a team player.  He makes stupid plays, yes, he defends worse than the Alamo, but I honestly don’t believe he makes his team worse.  This is not to say he makes his team better.  ZBo is ZBo.  Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol aren’t a defensive tandem that anyone would like to have and that’s why Hasheem Thabeet will end up getting a lot of minutes next to Randolph.

Two players, young and talented, are in the backcourt together.  Why Iverson was signed when you have Michael Conley and OJ Mayo doesn’t make much sense.  Conley, who really hasn’t had full reign as the point guard, will get inconsistent minutes with Iverson on board, especially considering the Mayo, the most talented player on the squad, needs true star’s minutes to continue to develop.  It is the obvious conclusion that talent and success don’t go hand in hand and blending talent and constructing a talented team are two very different things.

New Orleans Hornets

Prediction: 43-37 8th seed playoffs

Depth Chart

LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Dwayne Wade, Dwight Howard, Chris Paul. Best five players in the league?  If not, who do your drop?  It can’t be Paul.  He has gotten better every season, and the past three years his team has gotten worse.  This is no fault of Paul’s, rather the talent around him has broken down or not been reloaded.  Paul is no keeping this team alive, maybe the franchise and he needs some real help.

Emeka Okafor is a good start to rebuilding this surviving playoff team.  He is better than Tyson Chandler in every conceivable way except catching lob passes and they are both injured about the same amount, although recently Chandler has been injured more often. It’s a good start, and Paul will make him a more dangerous weapon than he was in Charlotte.  He should add a legitimate post threat alongside David West where it is very important in the western conference.

The wings are where it gets a little tricky.  Peja Stojakovic can still shoot, but the rest of his offensive game is limited, and that’s when he is healthy.  He hasn’t been healthy for quite sometime.  Morris Peterson is the shooting guard by default.  Probably better suited as a small forward, but not a good starting option for either position, Peterson and Devin Brown are not what a playoff team needs.  James Posey is a good sixth man, but even he has slowed down.  A couple bright spots are Julian Wright as a Shawn Marion like power forward and Darren Collison at point guard.  The development of these two might be the only hope of improving upon last year and providing Paul with some more support.

Dallas Mavericks

Prediction: 51-31 5th seed playoffs

Depth Chart

Dallas, as far as the group goes, might only have one or two more shots left at getting to the finals.  Luckily, the Mavs made some moves this summer to insure that won’t only stay where they are, but have a chance to improve a great deal.  This team has an outside chance of getting to the finals.  Unfortunately, their weakest position might be there downfall.

From starters to backups, the Mavs are solid from positions one through four.  They have one great point guard, Jason Kidd even still, and a energetic playmaker behind him in Juan Jose Barea.  It gets better, Josh Howard slides down to the two with “The Jet,” Jason Terry playing behind him.  Jason Terry is the best scoring guard off the bench, hands down (Barbosa is close, maybe Ben Gordon if he is on the bench again).  The acquisition of Shawn Marion gives some depth the small forward and power forward positions, and hopefully, back with a great point guard, he can get a lot more east opportunities than in Miami and Toronto.

Former MVP and constant candidate Dirk Nowitzki does a lot for his team and it doesn’t need to be explained here, but his backup, Drew Gooden was a steal in free agency.  I never understood why he didn’t stick.  He averaged a near double-double everywhere he’s been, plays good defense and can hit a fifteen footer with regularity.  He can spell Nowitzki or play alongside him.  The Achilles heal of this team is at center.  While Dampier is certainly solid enough for 25-30 minutes a game, his backup, Nathan Jawai is completely unproven.  The absence of Desagna Diop in years past, or the unfortunate missed signing of Marcin Gortat this summer will really hurt the Mavs.  Competing with the likes of Lakers, Blazers, Spurs, Hornets and some others, the center positions lack of depth will really hurt the Mavs come playoff time.

San Antonio Spurs

Prediction: 60-22 2nd seed playoffs

Depth Chart

On paper, probably the best, most experienced team in the league.  Adding Richard Jefferson is great for depth on the wings, and if Manu Ginobli is healthy again, he Michael Finley and Roger Mason are a pretty deep and solid core.  The drafting of DeJuan Blair and the free agent signing Antonio McDyess will finally give Tim Duncan some legitimate help down low.

The key for this team is to make sure to get through the regular season unscathed.  This mean winning games early and getting the starters, and Ginobli less minutes.  Tim Duncan is only 33 years old, but with the amount of playoff games he has played he might as well be forty.  With the added depth, this should be possible.

Tony Parker continues to improve his game.  His speed and finishing ability around the rim make him very hard to stay in front of.  He also has a midrange game that has allowed him to pull up when the defender is off balance.  George Hill backs him up and is another athletic point guard in the mold of Parker without as much skill.

Outside of having good players, San Antonio is so mentally tough as a franchise that once in the playoffs, high seed or not, they will be prepared to play whoever.  If injuries weren’t a factor, the Spurs would be favored to go to the finals once again.  That’s a big if.  Coach Popovich is smart with his players.  He knows Duncan is the ultimate key to success (it’s pretty obvious).  Last year, Duncan would sit on the bench for significant stretches of time while the team struggled.  Popovich would use this to not only give the role players a chance to shine under pressure, but build up Duncan’s anticipation to get back on the floor down the stretch.  With more pieces, front court players and otherwise, the Spurs should be able to weather the storm when Duncan is on the sideline.

We are double-dipping today on the previews with reader Grey Home's look at the Atlantic Division and the Eastern Conference Playoffs as a whole.  Thanks to Grey Home for providing these. 

See preview after the jump.  Be sure and weigh in with your own thoughts below.

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)  

Continue reading this post »

This is the second of 6 Division Previews, Culminating with a Blazers Preview.

Southwest Division Preview Link here:

http://www.blazersedge.com/2009/10/12/1082607/eastern-conference-preview

Milwaukee Bucks

Prediction: 15-67 do not make the playoffs

Depth Chart

The Bucks might be the worse team in the league.  They were bad last year and lost two important pieces in Ramon Sessions and Charlie Villanueva, not to mention arguably their best player, Richard Jefferson.  Granted, Michael Redd and Andrew Bogut were hurt most of the year, but they weren’t exactly lighting it up before the injuries.  Scott Skiles did manage to get the most out of his team, but Brandon Jennings won’t be ready at least for a year or two, if ever, Mbah a Moute is an athletic defender but is no Richard Jefferson, and how confident can one be that Bogut and Redd will stay healthy for most of the year.  It is hard to find a winning equation here.

Somehow, Luke Ridnour returns as the starting point guard.  No matter how well Sessions played in his stead last year, Ridnour, for the most part, kept his starting job.  He isn’t awful, but he never played like a lottery player either. He would be a good back up here, and maybe Jennings can overcome him at some point in the season.  Jennings is a very exciting player and is better than I give him credit for.  He gets into the lane and while he is still trying to find the space to pass to once he’s there, that would seem to come naturally with more time on the court.  He is lucky to have Redd out there as a spot up shooter.

Redd is very important to this team.  He is the only outside shooter in the starting lineup (don’t count Ridnour) and the best scorer on the team.  Redd’s deep threat is enough to open space for guard penetration and the posts to have time to make a move before a double team.  It is even better when Redd goes on one of his Reggie Miller-esque hot streaks and just starts pulling from deep with is left handed sling-shot.

Luc Mbah a Moute will start at small forward as kind of a do it all defensive specialist but I doubt he’ll play heavy minutes because, hopefully Joe Alexander is ready to play some small forward as he backs up both the three and four positions.

Hakim Warrick and Andrew Bogut are the posts.  Warrick will get some nice hustle points and a few pick and roll baskets.  He is a bit slight, but has great athleticism.  I still don’t think he is a full time starter, but he is all the bucks have at this point.  Bogut is another big piece.  He is a good rebounder, has developed a mid-range game and has a very nice touch inside.  When healthy he is a top five legitimate center.  A lot hinges on the health of Bogut and Redd and the development of Alexander and Jennings.  One more year in the lottery could get them a power forward and in two years we could have a playoff team.

Indiana Pacers

Prediction: 25-57 do not make the playoffs

Depth Chart

I think the Pacers played a lot better then they should have.  Especially considering that Mike Dunleavy was out most of the year.  Outside of Dunleavy the Pacers haven’t added any legitimate pieces.  Dahntay Jones?  He started but didn’t play heavy minutes for the Denver Nuggets who used him as a starter so that JR Smith could come of the bench for more shots.  Added to the Pacers, where he won’t be used in the same capacity seems counterproductive.  Tyler Hansbrough is a nice player off the bench.  He won’t take Troy Murphy nor Roy Hibbert out of the starting lineup this year, or maybe ever, however he can be a high energy guy who gets hustle points off the bench.

Roy Hibbert improved quite a bit as the season went on.  He is so big he only needs to be near the basket on either end to be effective.  He is surprising quick for his size as well.  He isn’t fast, but his shoulders are quick enough to through off defenders with a couple fakes.  Paired with Troy Murphy, who is a good jumper shooter, he should have a lost of space to post down low. Murphy meanwhile has become a fantasy basketball player’s wet dream; a big man who shoots and makes threes and is a great rebounder.  The good news for the Pacers is that it helps their team too, not just the dude on yahoo fantasy sports.  He gets his far share of inside hoops as well.  And as with all left post players, they usually catch the defense off balance going with the left before they adjust, a la Zach Randolph in Memphis.

Granger is a great scorer who has focused on defense this off season.  If he indeed does improve on defense he could move near the elite players in all-around game.  He can shoot anywhere, a Steve Smith like big shooter, but can also slash, much better than Smith.  He needs to add a post-up game to his repertoire.  With that he could become a 30 ppg game scorer.  Dunleavy will play on the opposite wing of Granger, and has a similar game except he is more of a playmaker and less of a scorer.   I’m not really sure how well he’ll come back from injury, but I am assuming he should be alright.  He wasn’t a player who relied on his athleticism.  Dunleavy and Granger are both taller players that can handle and shoot the ball which causes match up problems. TJ Ford is the man getting these guys the ball, and his penetration and speed is great for kicking out to the shooters on the outside. Ford looks to score a little bit too often sometimes so it’s important he gets the ball to his shooters and feeds Hibbert on the post to keep the defense honest. 

Jarrett Jack is actually a very significant lost as the combo guard because he would do a lot of little things and get some offense off the bench and play some stingy defense on opposing points when needed.  There isn’t much coming off the bench for these guys except Brandon Rush who has the skills to be both a stopper and a scoring threat down the road.

I don’t have these  guys getting many wins, but if I had to pick a dark horse to make the playoffs it would have to be the Pacers.  It’s only that little matter of everything going right.

Detroit Pistons

Prediction: 35-47 do not make the playoffs

Depth Chart

Based on talent alone, the Pistons would be a playoff team.  Unfortunately this isn’t 2k or Live (I prefer 2K) where player ratings is the main determinate of doing well. Sadly, they can probably win quite a few games based on their real life skill.

The grab bag says it all, how is this supposed to work?  Rodney Stuckey is a nice player and could very well end up have a nice year stats-wise, but is he really the playmaker all these scorers need.  Will Bynum is the same way.  Denver’s Chauncey Billups could get away with not being a great passing point guard (not to say he’s bad) because he set up the offense so well and did a great job of spacing.  Stuckey is more of a penetrate and dish guy which is a good thing except his first option is to try and finish and the pass is only once he gets in trouble.  Stuckey doesn’t have a shot from distance, he’s not a spot up guy like Billups so when he receives the kick out he drives right back inside.  This brand of play hurts Rip Hamilton’s game of running off and around picks to find open space.  There is entirely too much one on one play at the four guard spots.  I am also sure that Ben Gordon is happy to be a sixth man again (facetious), playing behind an even better shooting guard than he has in the past.   The good news is that, because Stuckey is a big PG he can slide over to defend the SG when Gordon and him are in together. 

I like the addition of Ben Wallace and I think he will be somewhat revitalized and eventually return to the starting center position.  Kwame Brown is a good stiff off the bench.  I do like Dajuan Summers and Jason Maxiell, they should both get a lot of hustle chances with the amount shots getting jacked up.

It has also been talked about of having Gordon, Hamilton, Tayshuan Prince, with Charlie Villaneuva and Kwame Brown or Ben Wallace on the court together..  Prince acts as the point guard as he unsuccessfully did for about a week last year after the Iverson trade. With Gordon wanting the ball in his hands, Hamilton running around popping out for spot ups.  Villanueva sitting on the three-point line and Kwame Brown pretending he wants the ball down low.  Championship team? No. Playoff team? No. Lottery? Yes.

Chicago Bulls

Prediction: 44-38 6th seed playoffs

Depth Chart

John Salmons and Brad Miller were both huge boosts to the Bulls last year.  Boston may not have had Kevin Garnett last year, but they were still a great team, and the Bulls, in a very thrilling series, took them to seven games.  One of the big heroes of that series was Ben Gordon who left for Detroit.  The Bulls are betting on the return of Luol Deng at small forward, and then pushing John Salmons to the two.  It works in theory, and I like John Salmons, especially when he went to Chicago and helped make them better.  Early in the season is when Salmons and Deng will need to prove they can play together, otherwise the Bulls may not return to the playoffs.

The wings are important but the immediate future relies on Derrick Rose.  The kid can play.  Most impressive was that his relative lack of a jump shot didn’t hinder him too much in the early going.  Derrick Rose is on course to become very Dwayne Wade-like, except with more of a pass first mentality.  You’ll remember that Wade began as a point guard.  It was only after it was realized he is better suited as a scorer, for a  team that needed scoring once Shaquille O’Neal was acquired for the scoring depth of Lamar Odom and Caron Butler.  Rose still has other scoring pieces so if scores when he needs to, 17-18 ppg, and creates enough shots, 7-8 apg, this team will be just fine.

Tyrus Thomas and Joakim Noah will start as the four and five, but Noah will play a lot of power forward when Brad Miller is in during crunch time.  Thomas is getting better, especially as a jump shooter, but he will never be the ball handler to play small forward, and he’ll literally never have the size to be the prototypical power forward that the Bulls have coveted since they traded Elton Brand.  I don’t see the Shawn Marion comparisons.  Taj Gibson has showed something in preseason, he’ll get some run behind Noah and Thomas.  Another viable forward, mostly as the small forward, is James Johnson out of Wake Forest.  He is a leaper and bounder with a “getting there” midrange game.  He is more of a small forward than Thomas and it will be interesting to see how much time he gets.

Kirk Hinrich can play point, but with Rose, those minutes are limited.  He’ll play some two because of his defense he can help spread the floor better than Salmons with his three point shot.  He’ll get 22+ minutes a game between the two.  This allows Chicago to play with their roster a little bit to figure out the best combinations and match-ups when it comes playoff time.  I don’t see them getting out the of first round…yet.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Prediction: 60-22 1st seed playoffs

Depth Chart

Best regular season record last year.  MVP last year.  It will be the same this year, can O’Neal help win a championship.  Shaquille O.Neal has played with some of the best guards of the last 20 years.  First it was Penny Hardaway in Orlando with one finals trips.  Then Kobe Bryant in L.A. with 3 championships in four finals appearances.  Next to Miami with Dwayne Wade in his coming of age finals, a short stop in Phoenix, the first team he didn’t take to the finals and now Cleveland, with the reigning MVP Lebron James.  The odds, it would appear, are good that Cleveland should at least get to the finals this season.

O’Neal should help the Cavs’ biggest problem, interior defense.  This was caused mainly by Dwight Howard in the conference finals.  I think the best additions to the team are two smaller signings, Anthony Parker and Jamario Moon.  Both are tough, Moon is now the best perimeter defender on the team and Parker is a good outside shooter who isn’t afraid to get in the paint.  Before the season starter, Delonte West had the starter’s job, but with his distractions and the inspired play of Parker, Parker should get the nod.

Maurice Williams is the best “help” James has gotten in Cleveland and Shaquille O’Neal should add to that, giving Williams more open threes.  Andersen Varajao is down low too and as a hustle and defensive guy he should do well.  Zydrunas Illgauskas moves to the bench as the best offensive big man to be a back up.  He and Shaq will be close to splitting time.  The Cavs should be exited about JJ Hickson.  He has developed enough to the point where he can be a legitimate backup at power forward.

Of course the championship rides on Lebron James.  He will keep doing what he is doing, and as long as his help does what they’ve been doing, the Cavs should get back to the finals.  James has no excuse if they can’t get there this year. The Cavs have done everything to get him help, now he has good players around him, its up to James to make it come together.

Charlotte Bobcats

Prediction: 32-50 do not make the playoffs

Depth Chart

After several years of positive growth, the Bobcats have seemingly regressed.  No new talent outside of the draft was added and a trade that seems very lopsided.

Gerald Henderson could very well end up being a good player, but not a star, and not yet.  He figures to do well in the Larry Brown "system" having come from a very structured program in Duke, but he’ll have to earn his minutes behind Raja Bell, who is still a good on-ball defender and the newly acquired Flip Murray who will play almost exclusively at the two, because of the duo of Raymond Felton and DJ Augustin at the one.

Felton has played very steadily over his career, good for about 14ppg and 6+ apg, but from game to game he is very inconsistent.  There were many weeks where Felton would put up 32 points followed by 4 points,followed by 14 points.  The per game average isn’t bad, but the lack of consistency is.  He did become more steady the last month of the season, so the Bobcats hope it continues, which I think it will.  If it doesn’t, the Bobcats have another option at PG in Augustin.  Augustin had a pretty successful rookie campaign, but with Felton ahead of him on the depth chart he doesn’t have much time to procure.  Augustine and Felton will need to learn to play together.  Both are kind of combo-guards in that they can score and passing isn’t the first priority.  They  both can pass though.  Felton will still run the point when they are in together so that Augustin can be more of a spot up guy off the ball. Felton isn’t tall, but he is his strong so he shouldn’t get taken advantage of by opposing shooting guards.  And with Tyson Chandler behind him, he can afford to play up on his man.

Tyson Chandler is the new man in the middle with the Okafor swap.  While he can certainly block or alter shots on the defensive end and throw down alley-oops on offense, the Bobcats aren’t going to get much low post sets from Chandler.  Chandler won’t be getting nearly as many ‘oop opportunities without Chris Paul either.  Boris Diaw is his partner up front.  Diaw, an excellent passer, will be counted on to give Chandler good looks, but still, Diaw isn’t the classic post up PF, and the lack of an inside game should give the Bobcats problems when the lane is closed and the outside shots aren’t falling.

The best player on the team is Gerald Wallace.  He is an athlete and slasher and his midrange game has improved.  He still isn’t great at breaking down a defender off the dribble, but he can usually find a way to get a shot off. His health is a concern as he has never played more than 72 games in a season (71 last year).  The depth behind him isn’t much, most likely Gerald Henderson and Vlade Radmanovic finding the limited minutes.  There just isn’t anything exiting about these guys, and Larry Brown won’t be able to get this roster to the playoffs.  At least Iverson would have added some intrigue.

Miami Heat

Prediction: 39-43 8th seed playoffs

Depth Chart

Miami made the playoffs last year due to one thing.  And while you can’t disagree to much with Lebron James being awarded the MVP trophy, Dwayne Wade’s Heat would have been near the bottom of the standings without him.  Not something you can say about the Cavaliers.  Wade being healthy for most if not all of the season makes this a playoff team.  He just plays so damn hard. Regardless of what you think of the questionable foul shots earned, he makes his team better and can win a game by himself.

Mario Chalmers will continue at the point, and as long as he plays within himself he is a decent option.  He won’t do anything special, but he has a respectable jumper, doesn’t make a lot of mistakes and plays above average defense.  He is less of a facilitator and more of a means to an end of getting the offense started.  Quinn offers a lot of the same qualities on offense, but with a better three point bomb and is a lesser player defensively.

James Jones will split time with Quentin Richardson and Michael Beasley at the three.  Beasley will take a couple more years before he can be a full time small forward if that is indeed what the Heat need him to be.  I envision Beasley as an Anthony Mason type when he played with the Hornets and Heat in his later career.  Beasley will need to put on some weight either way to become a big strong guy who can handle the ball and can move over to the 4 spot occasionally because Udonis Haslem, while a good player can’t man the power forward spot himself. 

Haslem is so dependable he hasn’t lost his starting spot.  His biggest problem is his height.  His size is fine in that he is athletic and strong, but his arms aren’t freakishly long nor is he the athlete that Beasley appears to be.  Without a dominant center next to him, Haslem won’t find many easy opportunities such as the ones he used to get at the top of the key when Shaquille O’Neal was down low.  To his credit, Haslem has found ways to keep scoring, but with a different O’Neal, Jermaine, who is a jump shooter as well, Haslem has lost some of his effectiveness.

Jermaine will be only 31 years when the season begins, but his body has worn out and his post game is almost non-existent.  The last few seasons he has vowed he is healthy to start the season, but shortly after there is a set back.  His backup, Jamaal Magloire, is actually a pretty decent option, just not as a starter.  If O’Neal can indeed find some rejuvenation powers in his legs he can be the second option until Beasley finds his way, and maybe Miami can get back into the playoffs with a chance at the second round.

Washington Wizards

Prediction: 41-41 7th seed playoffs

Depth Chart

The return of Gilbert Arenas has been prophesized as the return to the playoffs and a run into the second round for the first time since 2005.  Arenas has vowed not to be a "character" this year, which he deemed a distraction.  It sounds good in theory, but the Wizards hope it doesn’t take the joy out of Arenas’ game.  Don’t be surprised if Arenas’ scoring numbers fall, but his assists rise, as he now has two more weapons to feed in Randy Foye and Mike Miller.  Miller will add some floor spreading ability and Foye is a combo guard not unlike Arenas, meaning they can play together and both are dangerous with the dribble creating problems for the defense which can open up the outside.

Caron Bulter has been a steady contributor, making two of the past three all-star games and is dynamic enough to hit jumpers and slash.  His defense is above average and he will spend a lot of time guarding the opposing teams’ best wing because of Miller’s defensive deficiencies.  Dominic McGuire and Deshawn Stevenson can still come off the bench as "stoppers" but with Bulter’s and Miller’s heavy minutes don’t expect those two to see much time.  Nick Young is the scorer off the bench who pairs with Foye in the backcourt.  He should be able to add a lot of the same things that Miller does with his outside shooting.

Antawn Jamison is old faithful.  He keeps on rebounding and making a variety of shots.  When you watch him play, you don’t immediately see or feel his impact, but by the end of the game he has 21 points and 9 boards.  Over the last 2 years he has only missed 3 games.  He just doesn’t get the credit that Vince Carter, the player he was traded for, gets because of his down to earth game.

Jamison, Butler and Arenas can be counted on to perform. And when the 3 are healthy, or at least mostly healthy, they make the playoffs.  Now with these added pieces, which don’t include Flip Saunders, the Wizards should have a good opportunity to meet their fan’s expectations.  Arenas is still the key.  If he goes down, the team might be able to get to the playoffs still, but they won’t take the next step.  Even healthy, a low seed in the playoffs will make it very difficult to get to the second round.  The Wizards need to shoot for the fourth or fifth seed to have a chance.

Atlanta Hawks

Prediction: 47-35 4th seed playoffs

Depth Chart

Atlanta has better talent than last year.  Jamal Crawford is a perfect scorer off the bench. He can create his own shot and play with the ball or off the ball.  He is a perfect compliment to Joe Johnson when Bibby is out and Johnson runs the point.  Both are ball handlers and Johnson; who is still underrated, even on a two time playoff team with great scoring, rebounding and assists numbers for a guard/forward, can be a distributor and playmaker instead of a scorer.  Even with Joe Johnson playing more of a Point Forward or Point Guard, I still think Bibby is one of the biggest keys to playoff success.

Bibby statistics have lowered, but his game is still there.  He is only 31 years old, was healthy, and during the season had decent if not great numbers.  It was his playoff numbers that dwindled, and that is when he has shined in the past.  The Hawks aren’t expecting Kings vs. Lakers 2002 numbers, but rather for him to get in that zone during parts of the series or at least parts of the game. He has great handles and a good pull up jumper.  Great pull up jumpers are the most lethal shot a player can have because it is un-guardable, and Bibby as that capability.  On offense Bibby can have his way with even the elite guards and it was sorely lacking against the likes of Mario Chalmers and Mo’ Williams in the last post season.  Jeff Teague was a nice pick up for a backup man behind Bibby, and could eventually inherit the starting job in a few years when Bibby really begins to decline.

Marvin Williams will start at the three, with Josh Smith at the four.  Neither are very good defensively.  Williams lack the lateral quickness to stay with smaller, quicker small forwards, and Smith, outside of weak-side blocks hasn’t shown any real ability to slow down true post forwards.  These two positions are really where the defense breaks down.  They both have incredible length and can be good off the ball defenders. Smith is better at guarding small forwards and Williams still hasn’t shown the ability to guard any position.  On the offensive side of the ball Josh Smith’s game is high flying with an added touch from mid range the last few years.  He is shooting more three pointers but they aren’t falling any more regularly.  He needs to continue to play like Amare-lite, except try on defense.

Al Horford mans the five spot again, and again he gets closer to never playing his natural position at the four.  He doesn’t really have a choice as the only other option at center is Zaza Pachulia.  Al Horford is a good center, but he can’t contend with the likes of Dwight Howard, Shaquille O’Neal, Kendrick Perkins on a nightly basis.  And Pachulia is even worse.  Those are the centers on the top three teams.  Atlanta gets beat inside, and having a center, at least defensively, so that Horford can move to the power forward position for parts of the game could help challenge the Celts, Magic and Cavs.  It would be nice to see some sort of a trade for a Nazr Mohammed or Desagna Diop type center, at least for Horford’s sake.

Orlando Magic

Prediction: 58-24 2nd seed playoffs

Depth Chart

I like that attitude that the Magic expect to be playing the Lakers again in the finals.  Going out and getting Vince Carter, Brandon Bass and resigning Marcin Gortat proves it.  They are playing to win it now.  Jameer Nelson is fully healthy and he should provide a pick and roll option now that Hedo Turkoglu is off in Toronto.

Critics seem to think that the pick and roll with Turkoglu was there most effective weapon, and it no doubt yielded results, but it also became the single focus of the offense when others shots weren’t falling and it bogged down the flow of the entire game plan.  Yes, it worked well against the Cavs, and was still working against the Lakers, but it can be game planed against, like it became so versus the Lakers.

Carter makes the offense more dynamic.  He is a player who can find his own shot without relying on being set up.  He is a better defender than Turkoglu (when he wants to be) and unless he doesn’t buy into the team concept, is an overall upgrade over Turkoglu.  I don’t think it should be too much of a concern that he will cause chemistry problems because he knows what is at stake.  This is the best collection he has been a part of in his career. Starting in the backcourt with Carter is Jameer Nelson, who was an All-Star last season, but missed all of the playoffs until his return in the finals.  Nelson still wasn’t comfortable in the finals, but his injury is healed and has time to re-mesh with his team.  He should have another good year at All-Star level.  Jason Williams is interesting as his backup.  It’s not quite certain how many minutes he will play and how effective he can be, but Anthony Johnson is solid and can play the backup minutes as well.

Pietrus will most likely start as the “stopper” small forward so that Carter won’t have to guard the best of the two wings.  Pietrus will most likely be substituted for Brandon Bass and have Rashard Lewis slide down to the three spot.  This is probably the best lineup, Nelson, Carter, Lewis, Bass and Dwight Howard at center.  With Lewis starting at the four he will be able to bring the opposing power forward out on the perimeter giving more space for penetration and, most importantly, Dwight Howard.  As Bass and backup center Marcin Gortat will play together a lot and feed of each other’s hustle.

Howard is again at center, and with Yao Ming out for the year is no doubt the best center in the league.  His free throw shooting improved as the playoffs went on and if he shoots closer to 70% than 50%, he is going to be that much more dangerous.  His rebounding, defense, and athleticism are all top of the class, he just needs to find a little better offense touch, and a 8-10 foot jumper to keep the opposing team from sagging in.  The Magic rely on Howard to get good looks outside and his passing out of the doubles will be essential to open shots.

The Magic think they should get back to the finals because their team more experienced and better equipped that then team last year.  As long as the offense is straightened out and Carter has a commitment to defense, there aren’t too many reason why it can’t happen.

Next division preview in 2-3 days.

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On Tuesday the Charlotte Bobcats tradedJason Richardson, Jared Dudley and a 2010 second-round pick to the Phoenix Suns for Raja Bell, Boris Diaw and Sean Singletary

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This wraps up the Previews.  This also includes playoff series.

There is a larger Blazers Preview

Previous Southwest Division Preview Link

 http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/10/14/634996/western-conference-preview

Previous Pacific Division Preview Link

http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/10/10/632524/western-conference-preview

Previous Altantic Division Preview Link

http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/9/15/614761/eastern-conference-preview

Previous Southeast Division Preview Link

http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/9/2/606260/eastern-conference-preview

Previous Central Division Preview Link

http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/9/4/607441/eastern-conference-preview

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