Six quick points. The Portland Timbers are in the win column after two wins in four days.

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What a revelation.

Poll

Does Coach John Spencer finally have a grasp on the Timbers lineup/personnel?

48%

Yes - on the right track

13 votes

0%

No - should have left his opening day starting lineup intact

0 votes

44%

Maybe - too early to tell

12 votes

7%

Not until we bring McKinley Tennyson back!

2 votes

27 votes | Poll has closed

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The definition of madness is trying the same thing and expecting different results.

Poll

Does winning US Gold Cup matches matter this year for the Timbers?

56%

No - Development should take priority but still compete to win

13 votes

43%

Yes - Win at all costs

10 votes

23 votes | Poll has closed

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If you watched the Timbers this past weekend you can see that a lot of the problems in the back four were directly related to lack of communication and patience combined with positioning and hard work.

I would never question the players' lack of work rate, but they aren't doing the work, when they need to do it.

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Despite what John Strong seemed to be insinuating, the Timbers did not have much success.  Nerves and lack of chemistry aside the Timbers showed an extreme lack of athletic and technical ability.

The back four isn't as bad as this game may lead you to believe.  I thought right back Purdy and center back, Eric Brunner, played well, at least defensively.  Goldthwaite and Wallace, mostly on the left side of the field were terribly over matched and in particular, Goldthwaite had a nightmare.  While Wallace didn't do much offensively (and as an offensively minded back, he should) his athleticism was enough to stave off a few attacking chances.  He did not, however, work well with his partner on the left flank, Jeremy Hall, or his center back, Goldthwaite.  Goldthwaite got burned twice with pace, once on a last ditch effort when he had the offensive player at a pretty favorable angle and was generally out of place.  I'll give you one blatant mistake, but anymore and you're pulled (which he was), and he wasn't bringing anything else.  When Horst came in, it at least provided some pace and his mistakes could be corrected because of his ability to move well, but he was still unimpressive sans for a couple of forays out of the back.

In the middle is where the biggest breakdowns occurred.  The extreme lack of possession in the midfield really killed the flow.  It was so bad early that the best balls were played from Adin Brown in goal to either Perlaza or Cooper up top.  All three of the center midfielders were slow to the ball always turning a 50/50 into a 60/40.  I am sure that Jack Jewsbury is a solid CM, but without a dynamic player along side him, he is just slow and lumbering.

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Previous previews

 

Western Con Southwest Division

http://www.blazersedge.com/2009/10/27/1103031/western-conference-preview

 

Eastern Con Atlantic with playoffs

http://www.blazersedge.com/2009/10/22/1096652/eastern-conference-preview

 

Eastern Con Central Division

http://www.blazersedge.com/2009/10/16/1088307/eastern-conference-preview-central

 

Eastern Con Southwest Division Preview Link here:

http://www.blazersedge.com/2009/10/12/1082607/eastern-conference-preview

 

 

Pacific Division		Playoff seeds
LA Lakers	66-16	1
Phoenix Suns	37-45	7
LA Clippers	35-47
Golden State Warriors	34-48
Sacramento Kings	24-58

 

 

Sacramento Kings

Prediction: 24-58 do not make the playoffs

Depth Chart

Point Guard	Tyreke Evans	Beno Udrih	MVP: Kevin Martin Biggest Surprise: Tyreke Evans Biggest Letdown: Andres Nocioni Key to success: Running Wild Grab bag: Not one veteran leader on the team.
Shooting Guard	Kevin Martin	Francisco Garcia
Small Forward	Desmond Mason	Andres Nocioni
Power Forward	Jason Thompson	Jon Brockman
Center	Spencer Hawes	Sean May

 

The Kings have some good pieces.  Spencer Hawes and Jason Thompson are solid in the post.  Thompson, especially can be a great player.  He is very agile, a decent outside shot and 6’ 11” with long arms has the tools to become a very good player.  His skills still need honing but they’re there.  He played four years of college ball at Rider so there may not be much opportunity for improvement, but the more playing time he got last year the better he preformed.  He is paired with Hawes who is the Starter without a real center behind him.  He is a finesse center with a mean streak, if that makes sense.  I am not a big fan of his three point shooting, but his midrange game is handy on a team that now adds a slasher point guard and small forward in Tyreke Evans and Desmond Mason.

 

Neither Mason nor Evans are accomplished outside shooters, so opening up channels inside to drive will be important to the Kings’ success.  Hawes outside shooting will contribute to this as well as add a kick out option, especially for the new point guard, Evans.  I am glad that Evans will be giving the reigns as a rookie, especially on a team with no current playoff aspirations.  You might as well develop your talent in the beginning rather than put a more experienced player, who’ll help you in the short run.  Although, in this case, I am not sure the Beno Udrih is that much better of a player.

 

Francisco Garcia is out for quite awhile, and that’s unfortunate because he can shoot, handle the ball and is a smart player.  He is a solid role player and much different that Mason who takes his spot.  Mason will provide some defense, but most of his offense is opportunistic.  This should bode particularly well for this team with the new offensive philosophy based around the up-tempo, fast break game.  Of course, the main offensive weapon is Kevin Martin.  With an ugly release, but deadly results, a good handle and length to finish at the rim, Martin is one of the best scorers in the league.  He isn’t a superstar, and probably won’t be until he adds some other aspects to his game.  Right now he is just a scorer, but as this team develops he could be an important piece, but not the piece to get back to the playoffs

.

Golden State Warriors

Prediction: 34-48 do not make the playoffs

Depth Chart

Point Guard	Monta Ellis	CJ Watson	MVP: Anthony Randolph Biggest Surprise: Anthony Randolph Biggest Letdown: Corey Maggette Key to success: Athletic Defense Grab bag: The Warriors are terrible at pretending to be happy with each other.
Shooting Guard	Anthony Morrow	Stephen Curry
Small Forward	Stephen Jackson	Devean George
Power Forward	Corey Maggette	Anthony Randolph
Center	Andris Biedrins	Ronny Turaif

 

This team is super dysfunctional.  Three years ago they were the talk of the playoffs, the fans were back and the core was great.  The just missed out on the playoffs the next year and shortly after the heart of the team, Baron Davis was lost to free agency.  In his place Monta Ellis was to take over, but that never happened after a mo-ped injury.  The rabbit hole got deeper and other pieces started to rust and now it seems that total hell has broken loose.  Stephen Jackson wants a trade, and announced it publicly, Monta Ellis says he can’t play with Stephen Curry, Corey Maggette doesn’t like playing power forward and I am sure there are other issues that have yet to come to the surface.

 

I don’t like this team’s configuration.  Stephen Jackson needs to go, not only for the sake of ridding a cancer but to get Anthony Randolph into the starting lineup.  This guy is good.  His ball handling has improved, he’s an athletic freak, above average playmaker and the potential to be a dominant defender, especially as a small forward.  He has to play to get better, and his minutes crunch behind Maggette and Jackson doesn’t help his cause.  The other young player who needs time is Stephen Curry.  Why Monta says they can’t play together doesn’t have much weight.  I see, from a defensive standpoint, why there could be some problems, but offensively it seems like a good match.  Neither are natural point guards, but should be able to play off each other nicely.  Curry is a great shooter, and Ellis is a slasher/driver type, shouldn’t they be able to find each other?  That job comes down to Coach Nelson.  For a coach that has a lot of control it seems quite the contrary.  A lot of his players don’t seem to buy-in to what he’s selling, and chemistry-wise that is obviously very detrimental.

 

At the center position, Andris Biedrins quietly goes along as a very efficient hustle player with a nice touch.  He is very slight, but he uses it to his advantage as he slithers his way for rebounds and tips.  He has a surprising better touch around the basket than scouts give him credit for and despite is small frame he gets into the thick of things under the basket and on the floor.  He is tough, just not strong.  Ronny Turiaf provides more of the brawn under the basket.  He is shorter, but has long arms and good timing on blocks.  He is another one of those perfect role players for this squad once they decide to rebuild instead of treading along.  Curry, Randolph, Biedrins, and maybe if Ellis turns his attitude around could make a nice core.

 

LA Clippers

Prediction: 35-47 do not make the playoffs

Depth Chart

Point Guard	Baron Davis	Sebastian Telfair	MVP:Baron Davis Biggest Surprise: Sebastian Telfair Biggest Letdown: Al Thonton Key to success: point guard distribution Grab bag: Other LA team has a headliner for once.
Shooting Guard	Eric Gordon	Rasual Butler
Small Forward	Al Thornton	Ricky Davis
Power Forward	Blake Griffin	Craig Smith
Center	Chris Kamen	Marcus Camby

 

This team had a chance to make the playoffs before the season started, but now that Blake Griffin will miss about two months of his rookie year, it seems less likely.  Rookies need all the help they can get when they first start out.  Coming back into game shape will take a lot longer than the two months of injury recovery, and that will be against guys who are already in their midseason form.  Griffin is a good player though, so having him at all will be a boost, just maybe not the same boost they were looking for.  In the meantime, the Clippers are hoping that they can have a nice positive stretch, then reintegrate Griffin back onto a team as they hit their stride.

 

The positives are that the team is surprisingly deep.  Marcus Camby could become the starter at power forward with DeAndre Jordan able to back up the center spot.  Craig Smith is a good backup at power forward already.  Camby won’t provide the offense Griffin can, but this team isn’t looking for offense as much because of Eric Gordon, Baron Davis and Al Thornton. Camby just needs to provide defense, and make the shots when he has them.  Something he has done well over the last four years.  With Baron Davis losing weight, a better backup in Sebastian Telfair and the emergence of Eric Gordon as a go to scorer, the Clippers have a solid rotation in the backcourt.  While small, Rasual Butler will also spend some time there and is a good defender when necessary.  It is very important for Baron Davis and Telfair to distribute the ball early in the shot clocks.  Baron Davis has a bad habit of dribbling too much, then the team is left with a bad shot against the clock.  If Baron Davis gets it inside to Camby (an underrated passer) or Chris Kamen first, the offense will flow much better.  Kamen is a player who is a lot better than people think.  He puts up solid numbers; unfortunately his hair leaves something to be desired.

 

This team should also be able to run.  With Gordon and Thornton (an excellent finisher on the break and Davis or Telfair running the show, there should be plenty of easy baskets off the break.  If a lot of things go right, and Griffin gets back into the swing of things early off his injury, this team has a shot at the playoffs.

 

Phoenix Suns

Prediction: 37-45 7th seed playoffs

Depth Chart

Point Guard	Steve Nash	Goran Dragic	MVP: Steve Nash Biggest Surprise: Channing Frye Biggest Letdown: Jason Richardson Key to success: Steve Nash’s choice Grab bag: Rolo Tamassy killed Jack Vincennes.
Shooting Guard	Jason Richardson	Leandro Barbosa
Small Forward	Grant Hill	Jared Dudley
Power Forward	Amare Stoudemire	Louis Amundson
Center	Channing Frye	Robin Lopez

 

The Suns will be better than last year.  They are going back to Nash’s signature style;  running, quick shots, leaving on the break.  This also means they are going to be poor on defense.  Steve Nash is awesome at most things, dribbling, passing, shooting, dancing, soccer, and charities to name a few.  One thing he isn’t good at, is defense.  Amare Stoudemire doesn’t even try to play defense.  This has been one of the biggest hindrances of the Suns the last 5 years in the playoffs.  Nash, at 35 isn’t going to magically start excelling at defense, but I do think that his attention to it, may be easier.  Last year they tried to fast break with Shaq brining up the rear (how did it taste, I wonder?).  Terry Porter got Shaq involved in the offense, but it hindered all the players around them to the extent of borderline depression.  There was no joy anymore.  The good news is that the joy is back, and Steve Nash is as happy as ever.  That will go along way.  The personnel has definitely gotten worse, but they’ll play above themselves in this system.

 

The starting lineup san Shaq returns with Channing Frye at center.  Frye is a good addition for this style of play.  He can hit the three, is much more agile than O’Neal was so the pick and roll, or more important pick and pop will be very effective. On the wings, Jason Richardson and Grant Hill will get the majority of minutes, and although Grant Hill no longer drinks Sprite, his legs are finally good to go and really, he hasn’t played as much basketball as his age suggests due to such injuries. He is still a solid veteran with a basketball IQ that can make up for his shortcomings in athleticism.  Jason Richardson has never seemed to fit in in Phoenix, but I think the refreshed Nash will help reinvigorate him.  When is the last time you’ve seen a highlight dunk of Richardson?  Feels like its been awhile.  Playing behind these two are Jared Dudley, and Leandro Barbosa, who is a blur with the ball, and despite an unorthodox release, is a good outside shooter. 

 

The Suns are a playoff team for one reason though, Steve Nash.  If he can find that magic of the three or four years ago teams, he will be one to be reckoned with on the offensive end. I would look for him to find his own shot this year and play a lot of two man games with Frye and Amare Stoudamire who will again try and stay healthy.  As Nash goes the Suns go.

 

LA Lakers

Prediction: 66-16 1st seed playoffs

Depth Chart

Point Guard	Derek Fisher	Jordan Farmer	MVP: Pau Gasol Biggest Surprise: Adam Morrison Biggest Letdown: Machine Key to success: Ron Artest for the cause Grab bag: Yes it was a joke, Kobe Bryant is the MVP of the Lake-show.
Shooting Guard	Kobe Bryant	Sasha Vujacic
Small Forward	Ron Artest	Luke Walton
Power Forward	Pau Gasol	Lamar Odom
Center	Andrew Bynum	DJ Mbenga

 

Returning champions don’t often take risks in acquiring new players, especially starters known for their volatility.  Ron Artest is better than Trevor Ariza, as long as he doesn’t disrupt team chemistry.  To his credit, Artest had a good stay in Houston with the Rockets, and they came dangerously close to beating the Lakers, even once Yao Ming went down.  As long as Artest plays his role as defender and fourth offensive option, the Lakers will have a better than good shot to repeat.

 

What else can you say about these guys.  Kobe Bryant got a bit older, but he’s still in his prime, and he has more help than he ever has.  Pau Gasol is in his prime, maybe he is a little worn down after the postseason and Eurobasket, but he’s been healthy.  Andrew Bynum is back to health, finally proclaiming he will be injury free for the entire year (to be honest his last injury was pretty unlucky). Derek Fisher is old, but his game is not predicated on athleticism.  Lamar Odom can play small forward, power forward and has totally bought into his sixth man role after resigning with the Lakers.

 

The Lakers also have the confidence and swagger from winning the finals.  It wasn’t a fluke, they were there the year before.  Even minor role players like Sasha Vujacic have confidence because of it.  And there is also one person on the Lakers that steps up more than expected.  Two years ago it was ‘Machine’ Vujacic, last year it was Trevor Ariza.  This year I think Adam Morrison will get a chance to play if Luke Walton gets hurt.  Morrison will find his shooting touch and provide what ‘Machine’ did two years ago.  There isn’t much not to like as a Laker fan.  They are playing to win again and know they are at the top.

 

 

Previous previews

 

Eastern Con  Atlantic with playoffs

http://www.blazersedge.com/2009/10/22/1096652/eastern-conference-preview

 

Eastern Con Central Division

http://www.blazersedge.com/2009/10/16/1088307/eastern-conference-preview-central

 

Eastern Con Southwest Division Preview Link here:

http://www.blazersedge.com/2009/10/12/1082607/eastern-conference-preview

 

 

Southwest Division		Playoff Seeds
San Antonio Spurs	60-22	2
Dallas Mavericks	51-31	5
New Orleans Hornets	43-39	8
Memphis Grizzlies	34-48
Houston Rockets	31-51

 

 

Houston Rockets

Prediction: 31-51 do not make the playoffs

Depth Chart

Point Guard	Aaron Brooks	Kyle Lowry	MVP: Aaron Brooks Biggest Surprise: TMac’s return Biggest Letdown: Ariza is not Artest Key to success: Interior defensive play Grab bag: Now TMac once to get to the second round without Yao.  It won’t happen.
Shooting Guard	Tracy McGrady	Jermaine Taylor
Small Forward	Trevor Ariza	Shane Battier
Power Forward	Luis Scola	Carl Landry
Center	Chuck Hayes	David Anderson

 

Houston will probably be better than this.  Record-wise, they’ll probably win more games than I am giving them credit for, and they will be a tough team to play against every night.  Rick Adelman is a great coach.  He is mostly known for getting his teams out on the break, the Blazers and Kings of yore, but he showed last year when he got the Rockets to be one of the best defensive teams in the league and play a slower pace to assure Yao Ming was still a viable part of the offense.  Of course it helps when you have a agile 7’ 5” guy manning the middle in Yao, and a physically, probably crazy small forward in Ron Artest.  Now here’s the thing, neither of these two are with the team this year.  Granted, Trevor Ariza replaces Artest defensively, and can probably do about as good a job, and to start the season he will be paired on the wings with Shane Battier until Tracy McGrady returns.  This should give the Rockets some good perimeter defending, but neither Battier and especially Ariza won’t be able to take as many chances without a big stopper clogging the lane behind them.

 

Chuck Hayes is a 6’ 7” center, but is an absolute tree trunk down low.  He shouldn’t have too many problems against the stronger centers, but tall jump shooters or long armed agile post centers could give him problems because of his lack of height.  David Andersen is taller as the backup, but also a lot softer in the post.  Luis Scola returns as the power forward and will need to step up much more this year as the second option.  He’ll probably be the first player to touch the ball in the offensive set in the high post.  He can make plays from here, whether passing, driving or hitting the jumper.  His role is heightened until McGrady returns.

 

Right now, the key to this team, again, until McGrady’s return, is Aaron Brooks.  He has showed he can score because of his quickness and his outside shot, and last year’s playoff series against the Blazers and Lakers showed he can step up when needed.  He is now the most dynamic offense player the Rockets have and will be looked upon to create his own shot.  It is not as important for Brooks to run the offense as one might think.  Adelman has always done well with shoot first point guards, Terry Porter, Jason Williams, Mike Bibby, to name more than a few.  If Brooks can become more consistent, he could easily help form a good trio when TMac and Yao return.

 

 

Memphis Grizzlies

Prediction: 34-48 do not make the playoffs

Depth Chart

Point Guard	Mike Conley	Allen Iverson	MVP: OJ Mayo Biggest Surprise: Mike Conley Biggest Letdown: Rudy Gay Key to success: Cohesion Grab bag: “Did you like my shooting coach?”  “Who said that?”
Shooting Guard	OJ Mayo	Marko Jaric
Small Forward	Rudy Gay	Sam Young
Power Forward	Zach Randolph	Darrell Arthur
Center	Marc Gasol	Hasheem Thabeet

 

This team could easily blow up into the failed experiment it can be, but I have to think, talent alone will help this team win games.  Sure, everyone on the team is a shoot first player.  The defense, specifically interior, is atrocious with Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol, but again if this team starts out well, and everyone stays happy they could do alright before the inevitable crash.

 

The biggest single thing that could help this team is an injury.  If one of the five starters misses a significant time it could be a classic addition by subtraction.  For example if Rudy Gay goes down and Sam Young takes his place in the starting lineup, Young isn’t going to complain about lack of shots.  He is a rookie, knows his place.  Rudy Gay on the other had thinks, and maybe rightly so, that this should be his team, whether he takes ownership or not.  He wants his shots, thinks he needs them, and will probably disrupt team chemistry whether he means to or not.  It isn’t just Gay, though, Iverson, assuming he doesn’t buy into coming off the bench for the second straight year, could create the same problem.  To make matters worse, he’ll start the season injured and then come back into the rotation.  I think Iverson will get injured this year as well, causing even more amount of time to be lost.

 

Zach Randolph can score and rebound, but he wouldn’t be mistaken for a team player.  He makes stupid plays, yes, he defends worse than the Alamo, but I honestly don’t believe he makes his team worse.  This is not to say he makes his team better.  ZBo is ZBo.  Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol aren’t a defensive tandem that anyone would like to have and that’s why Hasheem Thabeet will end up getting a lot of minutes next to Randolph.

 

Two players, young and talented, are in the backcourt together.  Why Iverson was signed when you have Michael Conley and OJ Mayo doesn’t make much sense.  Conley, who really hasn’t had full reign as the point guard, will get inconsistent minutes with Iverson on board, especially considering the Mayo, the most talented player on the squad, needs true star’s minutes to continue to develop.  It is the obvious conclusion that talent and success don’t go hand in hand and blending talent and constructing a talented team are two very different things.

 

 

 

New Orleans Hornets

Prediction: 43-37 8th seed playoffs

Depth Chart

Point Guard	Chris Paul	Darren Collison	MVP: Chris Paul Biggest Surprise: Julian Wright Biggest Letdown: Morris Peterson Key to success: Steady outside shooting Grab bag: Lacking in the wings department
Shooting Guard	Morris Peterson	Devin Brown
Small Forward	Peja Stojakovic	James Posey
Power Forward	David West	Julian Wright
Center	Emeka Okafor	Hilton Armstrong

 

LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Dwayne Wade, Dwight Howard, Chris Paul. Best five players in the league?  If not, who do your drop?  It can’t be Paul.  He has gotten better every season, and the past three years his team has gotten worse.  This is no fault of Paul’s, rather the talent around him has broken down or not been reloaded.  Paul is no keeping this team alive, maybe the franchise and he needs some real help.

 

Emeka Okafor is a good start to rebuilding this surviving playoff team.  He is better than Tyson Chandler in every conceivable way except catching lob passes and they are both injured about the same amount, although recently Chandler has been injured more often. It’s a good start, and Paul will make him a more dangerous weapon than he was in Charlotte.  He should add a legitimate post threat alongside David West where it is very important in the western conference.

 

The wings are where it gets a little tricky.  Peja Stojakovic can still shoot, but the rest of his offensive game is limited, and that’s when he is healthy.  He hasn’t been healthy for quite sometime.  Morris Peterson is the shooting guard by default.  Probably better suited as a small forward, but not a good starting option for either position, Peterson and Devin Brown are not what a playoff team needs.  James Posey is a good sixth man, but even he has slowed down.  A couple bright spots are Julian Wright as a Shawn Marion like power forward and Darren Collison at point guard.  The development of these two might be the only hope of improving upon last year and providing Paul with some more support.

 

Dallas Mavericks

Prediction: 51-31 5th seed playoffs

Depth Chart

Point Guard	Jason Kidd	Juan Jose Barea	MVP: Dirk Nowitzki Biggest Surprise: Tim Thomas Biggest Letdown: Josh Howard Key to success: Howard/Marion not stepping on each other’s toes Grab bag: Solid one through four.  Josh Howard is a piece of number two though.
Shooting Guard	Josh Howard	Jason Terry
Small Forward	Shawn Marion	Tim Thomas
Power Forward	Dirk Nowitzki	Drew Gooden
Center	Eric Dampier	Nathan Jawai

 

Dallas, as far as the group goes, might only have one or two more shots left at getting to the finals.  Luckily, the Mavs made some moves this summer to insure that won’t only stay where they are, but have a chance to improve a great deal.  This team has an outside chance of getting to the finals.  Unfortunately, their weakest position might be there downfall.

 

From starters to backups, the Mavs are solid from positions one through four.  They have one great point guard, Jason Kidd even still, and a energetic playmaker behind him in Juan Jose Barea.  It gets better, Josh Howard slides down to the two with “The Jet,” Jason Terry playing behind him.  Jason Terry is the best scoring guard off the bench, hands down (Barbosa is close, maybe Ben Gordon if he is on the bench again).  The acquisition of Shawn Marion gives some depth the small forward and power forward positions, and hopefully, back with a great point guard, he can get a lot more east opportunities than in Miami and Toronto.

 

Former MVP and constant candidate Dirk Nowitzki does a lot for his team and it doesn’t need to be explained here, but his backup, Drew Gooden was a steal in free agency.  I never understood why he didn’t stick.  He averaged a near double-double everywhere he’s been, plays good defense and can hit a fifteen footer with regularity.  He can spell Nowitzki or play alongside him.  The Achilles heal of this team is at center.  While Dampier is certainly solid enough for 25-30 minutes a game, his backup, Nathan Jawai is completely unproven.  The absence of Desagna Diop in years past, or the unfortunate missed signing of Marcin Gortat this summer will really hurt the Mavs.  Competing with the likes of Lakers, Blazers, Spurs, Hornets and some others, the center positions lack of depth will really hurt the Mavs come playoff time.

 

San Antonio Spurs

Prediction: 60-22 2nd seed playoffs

Depth Chart

Point Guard	Tony Parker	George Hill	MVP: Tim Duncan Biggest Surprise: DeJuan Blair Biggest Letdown: Michael Finley Key to success: Win quickly in regular season Grab bag: Just because Manu is white and not American, does not a euro make.
Shooting Guard	Michael Finley	Manu Ginobili
Small Forward	Richard Jefferson	Roger Mason
Power Forward	Antonio McDyess	DeJuan Blair
Center	Tim Duncan	Matt Bonner

 

On paper, probably the best, most experienced team in the league.  Adding Richard Jefferson is great for depth on the wings, and if Manu Ginobli is healthy again, he Michael Finley and Roger Mason are a pretty deep and solid core.  The drafting of DeJuan Blair and the free agent signing Antonio McDyess will finally give Tim Duncan some legitimate help down low.

 

The key for this team is to make sure to get through the regular season unscathed.  This mean winning games early and getting the starters, and Ginobli less minutes.  Tim Duncan is only 33 years old, but with the amount of playoff games he has played he might as well be forty.  With the added depth, this should be possible.

 

Tony Parker continues to improve his game.  His speed and finishing ability around the rim make him very hard to stay in front of.  He also has a midrange game that has allowed him to pull up when the defender is off balance.  George Hill backs him up and is another athletic point guard in the mold of Parker without as much skill.

 

Outside of having good players, San Antonio is so mentally tough as a franchise that once in the playoffs, high seed or not, they will be prepared to play whoever.  If injuries weren’t a factor, the Spurs would be favored to go to the finals once again.  That’s a big if.  Coach Popovich is smart with his players.  He knows Duncan is the ultimate key to success (it’s pretty obvious).  Last year, Duncan would sit on the bench for significant stretches of time while the team struggled.  Popovich would use this to not only give the role players a chance to shine under pressure, but build up Duncan’s anticipation to get back on the floor down the stretch.  With more pieces, front court players and otherwise, the Spurs should be able to weather the storm when Duncan is on the sideline.

We are double-dipping today on the previews with reader Grey Home's look at the Atlantic Division and the Eastern Conference Playoffs as a whole.  Thanks to Grey Home for providing these. 

See preview after the jump.  Be sure and weigh in with your own thoughts below.

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)  

Continue reading this post »

 

This is the second of 6 Division Previews, Culminating with a Blazers Preview.

 

Southwest Division Preview Link here:

http://www.blazersedge.com/2009/10/12/1082607/eastern-conference-preview

 

 

Central Division		Playoff Seeds
Cleveland Cavaliers	60-22	1
Chicago Bulls	44-38	6
Detroit Pistons	35-47
Indiana Pacers	25-57
Milwaukee Bucks	15-67

 

Milwaukee Bucks

Prediction: 15-67 do not make the playoffs

Depth Chart

Point Guard	Luke Ridnour	Brandon Jennings	MVP: Michael Redd Biggest Surprise: Brandon Jennings Biggest Letdown: Luke Ridnour Key to success: Bogut scoring Grab bag: This is a very bad team that will only get worst with the inevitable injury.
Shooting Guard	Michael Redd	Charlie Bell
Small Forward	Luc Richard Mbah a Moute	Ersan Ilyasova
Power Forward	Hakim Warrick	Joe Alexander
Center	Andrew Bogut	Kurt Thomas

 

The Bucks might be the worse team in the league.  They were bad last year and lost two important pieces in Ramon Sessions and Charlie Villanueva, not to mention arguably their best player, Richard Jefferson.  Granted, Michael Redd and Andrew Bogut were hurt most of the year, but they weren’t exactly lighting it up before the injuries.  Scott Skiles did manage to get the most out of his team, but Brandon Jennings won’t be ready at least for a year or two, if ever, Mbah a Moute is an athletic defender but is no Richard Jefferson, and how confident can one be that Bogut and Redd will stay healthy for most of the year.  It is hard to find a winning equation here.

 

Somehow, Luke Ridnour returns as the starting point guard.  No matter how well Sessions played in his stead last year, Ridnour, for the most part, kept his starting job.  He isn’t awful, but he never played like a lottery player either. He would be a good back up here, and maybe Jennings can overcome him at some point in the season.  Jennings is a very exciting player and is better than I give him credit for.  He gets into the lane and while he is still trying to find the space to pass to once he’s there, that would seem to come naturally with more time on the court.  He is lucky to have Redd out there as a spot up shooter.

 

Redd is very important to this team.  He is the only outside shooter in the starting lineup (don’t count Ridnour) and the best scorer on the team.  Redd’s deep threat is enough to open space for guard penetration and the posts to have time to make a move before a double team.  It is even better when Redd goes on one of his Reggie Miller-esque hot streaks and just starts pulling from deep with is left handed sling-shot.

 

Luc Mbah a Moute will start at small forward as kind of a do it all defensive specialist but I doubt he’ll play heavy minutes because, hopefully Joe Alexander is ready to play some small forward as he backs up both the three and four positions.

 

Hakim Warrick and Andrew Bogut are the posts.  Warrick will get some nice hustle points and a few pick and roll baskets.  He is a bit slight, but has great athleticism.  I still don’t think he is a full time starter, but he is all the bucks have at this point.  Bogut is another big piece.  He is a good rebounder, has developed a mid-range game and has a very nice touch inside.  When healthy he is a top five legitimate center.  A lot hinges on the health of Bogut and Redd and the development of Alexander and Jennings.  One more year in the lottery could get them a power forward and in two years we could have a playoff team.

 

Indiana Pacers

Prediction: 25-57 do not make the playoffs

Depth Chart

Point Guard	TJ Ford	Earl Watson	MVP: Danny Granger Biggest Surprise: Roy Hibbert Biggest Letdown: Point Guard play Key to success: Mike Dunleavy’s return Grab bag: Psycho T is the next Mark Madsen, without the smarts.
Shooting Guard	Danny Granger	Dahntay Jones
Small Forward	Mike Dunleavy	Brandon Rush
Power Forward	Troy Murphy	Tyler Hansbrough
Center	Roy Hibbert	Jeff Foster

 

I think the Pacers played a lot better then they should have.  Especially considering that Mike Dunleavy was out most of the year.  Outside of Dunleavy the Pacers haven’t added any legitimate pieces.  Dahntay Jones?  He started but didn’t play heavy minutes for the Denver Nuggets who used him as a starter so that JR Smith could come of the bench for more shots.  Added to the Pacers, where he won’t be used in the same capacity seems counterproductive.  Tyler Hansbrough is a nice player off the bench.  He won’t take Troy Murphy nor Roy Hibbert out of the starting lineup this year, or maybe ever, however he can be a high energy guy who gets hustle points off the bench.

 

Roy Hibbert improved quite a bit as the season went on.  He is so big he only needs to be near the basket on either end to be effective.  He is surprising quick for his size as well.  He isn’t fast, but his shoulders are quick enough to through off defenders with a couple fakes.  Paired with Troy Murphy, who is a good jumper shooter, he should have a lost of space to post down low. Murphy meanwhile has become a fantasy basketball player’s wet dream; a big man who shoots and makes threes and is a great rebounder.  The good news for the Pacers is that it helps their team too, not just the dude on yahoo fantasy sports.  He gets his far share of inside hoops as well.  And as with all left post players, they usually catch the defense off balance going with the left before they adjust, a la Zach Randolph in Memphis.

 

Granger is a great scorer who has focused on defense this off season.  If he indeed does improve on defense he could move near the elite players in all-around game.  He can shoot anywhere, a Steve Smith like big shooter, but can also slash, much better than Smith.  He needs to add a post-up game to his repertoire.  With that he could become a 30 ppg game scorer.  Dunleavy will play on the opposite wing of Granger, and has a similar game except he is more of a playmaker and less of a scorer.   I’m not really sure how well he’ll come back from injury, but I am assuming he should be alright.  He wasn’t a player who relied on his athleticism.  Dunleavy and Granger are both taller players that can handle and shoot the ball which causes match up problems. TJ Ford is the man getting these guys the ball, and his penetration and speed is great for kicking out to the shooters on the outside. Ford looks to score a little bit too often sometimes so it’s important he gets the ball to his shooters and feeds Hibbert on the post to keep the defense honest. 

 

Jarrett Jack is actually a very significant lost as the combo guard because he would do a lot of little things and get some offense off the bench and play some stingy defense on opposing points when needed.  There isn’t much coming off the bench for these guys except Brandon Rush who has the skills to be both a stopper and a scoring threat down the road.

 

I don’t have these  guys getting many wins, but if I had to pick a dark horse to make the playoffs it would have to be the Pacers.  It’s only that little matter of everything going right.

 

Detroit Pistons

Prediction: 35-47 do not make the playoffs

Depth Chart

Point Guard	Rodney Stuckey	Will Bynum	MVP: Rodney Stuckey Biggest Surprise: Ben Wallace Biggest Letdown: Charlie Villanueva Key to success: Cohesion, Ben Gordon ‘playing nice’ off the bench Grab bag: Two scoring PGs, two jackers at SG and Villaneuva and Kwame in the post…awesome!
Shooting Guard	Rip Hamilton	Ben Gordon
Small Forward	Tayshaun Prince	Dajuan Summers
Power Forward	Charlie Villanueva	Jason Maxiell
Center	Kwame Brown	Ben Wallace

 

Based on talent alone, the Pistons would be a playoff team.  Unfortunately this isn’t 2k or Live (I prefer 2K) where player ratings is the main determinate of doing well. Sadly, they can probably win quite a few games based on their real life skill.

 

The grab bag says it all, how is this supposed to work?  Rodney Stuckey is a nice player and could very well end up have a nice year stats-wise, but is he really the playmaker all these scorers need.  Will Bynum is the same way.  Denver’s Chauncey Billups could get away with not being a great passing point guard (not to say he’s bad) because he set up the offense so well and did a great job of spacing.  Stuckey is more of a penetrate and dish guy which is a good thing except his first option is to try and finish and the pass is only once he gets in trouble.  Stuckey doesn’t have a shot from distance, he’s not a spot up guy like Billups so when he receives the kick out he drives right back inside.  This brand of play hurts Rip Hamilton’s game of running off and around picks to find open space.  There is entirely too much one on one play at the four guard spots.  I am also sure that Ben Gordon is happy to be a sixth man again (facetious), playing behind an even better shooting guard than he has in the past.   The good news is that, because Stuckey is a big PG he can slide over to defend the SG when Gordon and him are in together. 

I like the addition of Ben Wallace and I think he will be somewhat revitalized and eventually return to the starting center position.  Kwame Brown is a good stiff off the bench.  I do like Dajuan Summers and Jason Maxiell, they should both get a lot of hustle chances with the amount shots getting jacked up.

 

It has also been talked about of having Gordon, Hamilton, Tayshuan Prince, with Charlie Villaneuva and Kwame Brown or Ben Wallace on the court together..  Prince acts as the point guard as he unsuccessfully did for about a week last year after the Iverson trade. With Gordon wanting the ball in his hands, Hamilton running around popping out for spot ups.  Villanueva sitting on the three-point line and Kwame Brown pretending he wants the ball down low.  Championship team? No. Playoff team? No. Lottery? Yes.

 

Chicago Bulls

Prediction: 44-38 6th seed playoffs

Depth Chart

Point Guard	Derrick Rose	Jannero Pargo	MVP: Derrick Rose Biggest Surprise: James Johnson Biggest Letdown: Tyrus Thomas Key to success:  Loul Deng’s reintegration Grab bag:  Someone needs to pull a Larry Johnson on Troy Polamalu to Noah on a fast break.
Shooting Guard	John Salmons	Kirk Hinrich
Small Forward	Luol Deng	James Johnson
Power Forward	Tyrus Thomas	Taj Gibson
Center	Joakim Noah	Brad Miller

 

John Salmons and Brad Miller were both huge boosts to the Bulls last year.  Boston may not have had Kevin Garnett last year, but they were still a great team, and the Bulls, in a very thrilling series, took them to seven games.  One of the big heroes of that series was Ben Gordon who left for Detroit.  The Bulls are betting on the return of Luol Deng at small forward, and then pushing John Salmons to the two.  It works in theory, and I like John Salmons, especially when he went to Chicago and helped make them better.  Early in the season is when Salmons and Deng will need to prove they can play together, otherwise the Bulls may not return to the playoffs.

 

The wings are important but the immediate future relies on Derrick Rose.  The kid can play.  Most impressive was that his relative lack of a jump shot didn’t hinder him too much in the early going.  Derrick Rose is on course to become very Dwayne Wade-like, except with more of a pass first mentality.  You’ll remember that Wade began as a point guard.  It was only after it was realized he is better suited as a scorer, for a  team that needed scoring once Shaquille O’Neal was acquired for the scoring depth of Lamar Odom and Caron Butler.  Rose still has other scoring pieces so if scores when he needs to, 17-18 ppg, and creates enough shots, 7-8 apg, this team will be just fine.

 

Tyrus Thomas and Joakim Noah will start as the four and five, but Noah will play a lot of power forward when Brad Miller is in during crunch time.  Thomas is getting better, especially as a jump shooter, but he will never be the ball handler to play small forward, and he’ll literally never have the size to be the prototypical power forward that the Bulls have coveted since they traded Elton Brand.  I don’t see the Shawn Marion comparisons.  Taj Gibson has showed something in preseason, he’ll get some run behind Noah and Thomas.  Another viable forward, mostly as the small forward, is James Johnson out of Wake Forest.  He is a leaper and bounder with a “getting there” midrange game.  He is more of a small forward than Thomas and it will be interesting to see how much time he gets.

 

Kirk Hinrich can play point, but with Rose, those minutes are limited.  He’ll play some two because of his defense he can help spread the floor better than Salmons with his three point shot.  He’ll get 22+ minutes a game between the two.  This allows Chicago to play with their roster a little bit to figure out the best combinations and match-ups when it comes playoff time.  I don’t see them getting out the of first round…yet.

 

Cleveland Cavaliers

Prediction: 60-22 1st seed playoffs

Depth Chart

Point Guard	Maurice Williams	Daniel Gibson	MVP: Lebron James Biggest Surprise: JJ Hickson Biggest Letdown: Delonte West Key to success:  Feeding Shaq…the ball that is. Grab bag:  Shaq ads one skin crease to the back of his neck for every team he’s been on, or he is just getting old.
Shooting Guard	Anthony Parker	Delonte West
Small Forward	Lebron James	Jamario Moon
Power Forward	Andersen Varajao	JJ Hickson
Center	Shaquille O’Neal	Zydrunas Illgauskas

 

Best regular season record last year.  MVP last year.  It will be the same this year, can O’Neal help win a championship.  Shaquille O.Neal has played with some of the best guards of the last 20 years.  First it was Penny Hardaway in Orlando with one finals trips.  Then Kobe Bryant in L.A. with 3 championships in four finals appearances.  Next to Miami with Dwayne Wade in his coming of age finals, a short stop in Phoenix, the first team he didn’t take to the finals and now Cleveland, with the reigning MVP Lebron James.  The odds, it would appear, are good that Cleveland should at least get to the finals this season.

 

O’Neal should help the Cavs’ biggest problem, interior defense.  This was caused mainly by Dwight Howard in the conference finals.  I think the best additions to the team are two smaller signings, Anthony Parker and Jamario Moon.  Both are tough, Moon is now the best perimeter defender on the team and Parker is a good outside shooter who isn’t afraid to get in the paint.  Before the season starter, Delonte West had the starter’s job, but with his distractions and the inspired play of Parker, Parker should get the nod.

 

Maurice Williams is the best “help” James has gotten in Cleveland and Shaquille O’Neal should add to that, giving Williams more open threes.  Andersen Varajao is down low too and as a hustle and defensive guy he should do well.  Zydrunas Illgauskas moves to the bench as the best offensive big man to be a back up.  He and Shaq will be close to splitting time.  The Cavs should be exited about JJ Hickson.  He has developed enough to the point where he can be a legitimate backup at power forward.

 

Of course the championship rides on Lebron James.  He will keep doing what he is doing, and as long as his help does what they’ve been doing, the Cavs should get back to the finals.  James has no excuse if they can’t get there this year. The Cavs have done everything to get him help, now he has good players around him, its up to James to make it come together.

Southeast Division		Playoff Seeds
Orlando Magic	58-24	2
Atlanta Hawks	47-35	4
Washington Wizards	41-41	7
Miami Heat	39-43	8
Charlotte Bobcats	32-50

 

Charlotte Bobcats

Prediction: 32-50 do not make the playoffs

Depth Chart

Point Guard	Raymond Felton	D.J. Augustin	MVP: Raymond Felton Biggest Surprise: Gerald Henderson Biggest Letdown: anyone playing PF Key to success: Felton and Augustin playing together Grab bag: Larry Brown quits coaching, but doesn’t tell anybody
Shooting Guard	Raja Bell	Ronald Murray
Small Forward	Gerald Wallace	Vladimir Radmanovic
Power Forward	Boris Diaw	Derrick Brown
Center	Tyson Chandler	DeSagana Diop

 

After several years of positive growth, the Bobcats have seemingly regressed.  No new talent outside of the draft was added and a trade that seems very lopsided.

 

Gerald Henderson could very well end up being a good player, but not a star, and not yet.  He figures to do well in the Larry Brown "system" having come from a very structured program in Duke, but he’ll have to earn his minutes behind Raja Bell, who is still a good on-ball defender and the newly acquired Flip Murray who will play almost exclusively at the two, because of the duo of Raymond Felton and DJ Augustin at the one.

 

Felton has played very steadily over his career, good for about 14ppg and 6+ apg, but from game to game he is very inconsistent.  There were many weeks where Felton would put up 32 points followed by 4 points,followed by 14 points.  The per game average isn’t bad, but the lack of consistency is.  He did become more steady the last month of the season, so the Bobcats hope it continues, which I think it will.  If it doesn’t, the Bobcats have another option at PG in Augustin.  Augustin had a pretty successful rookie campaign, but with Felton ahead of him on the depth chart he doesn’t have much time to procure.  Augustine and Felton will need to learn to play together.  Both are kind of combo-guards in that they can score and passing isn’t the first priority.  They  both can pass though.  Felton will still run the point when they are in together so that Augustin can be more of a spot up guy off the ball. Felton isn’t tall, but he is his strong so he shouldn’t get taken advantage of by opposing shooting guards.  And with Tyson Chandler behind him, he can afford to play up on his man.

 

Tyson Chandler is the new man in the middle with the Okafor swap.  While he can certainly block or alter shots on the defensive end and throw down alley-oops on offense, the Bobcats aren’t going to get much low post sets from Chandler.  Chandler won’t be getting nearly as many ‘oop opportunities without Chris Paul either.  Boris Diaw is his partner up front.  Diaw, an excellent passer, will be counted on to give Chandler good looks, but still, Diaw isn’t the classic post up PF, and the lack of an inside game should give the Bobcats problems when the lane is closed and the outside shots aren’t falling.

 

The best player on the team is Gerald Wallace.  He is an athlete and slasher and his midrange game has improved.  He still isn’t great at breaking down a defender off the dribble, but he can usually find a way to get a shot off. His health is a concern as he has never played more than 72 games in a season (71 last year).  The depth behind him isn’t much, most likely Gerald Henderson and Vlade Radmanovic finding the limited minutes.  There just isn’t anything exiting about these guys, and Larry Brown won’t be able to get this roster to the playoffs.  At least Iverson would have added some intrigue.

 

Miami Heat

Prediction: 39-43 8th seed playoffs

Depth Chart

Point Guard	Mario Chalmers	Chris Quinn	MVP: Dwayne Wage Biggest Surprise: Beasley doesn’t start Biggest Letdown: Jermaine O’Neal Key to success: Wade’s heath…seriously Grab bag: If team gets really good, Riley takes over…again
Shooting Guard	Dwayne Wade	Daequan Cook
Small Forward	James Jones	Quentin Richardson
Power Forward	Udonis Haslem	Michael Beasley
Center	Jermaine O’Neal	Jamaal Magloire

 

Miami made the playoffs last year due to one thing.  And while you can’t disagree to much with Lebron James being awarded the MVP trophy, Dwayne Wade’s Heat would have been near the bottom of the standings without him.  Not something you can say about the Cavaliers.  Wade being healthy for most if not all of the season makes this a playoff team.  He just plays so damn hard. Regardless of what you think of the questionable foul shots earned, he makes his team better and can win a game by himself.

 

Mario Chalmers will continue at the point, and as long as he plays within himself he is a decent option.  He won’t do anything special, but he has a respectable jumper, doesn’t make a lot of mistakes and plays above average defense.  He is less of a facilitator and more of a means to an end of getting the offense started.  Quinn offers a lot of the same qualities on offense, but with a better three point bomb and is a lesser player defensively.

 

James Jones will split time with Quentin Richardson and Michael Beasley at the three.  Beasley will take a couple more years before he can be a full time small forward if that is indeed what the Heat need him to be.  I envision Beasley as an Anthony Mason type when he played with the Hornets and Heat in his later career.  Beasley will need to put on some weight either way to become a big strong guy who can handle the ball and can move over to the 4 spot occasionally because Udonis Haslem, while a good player can’t man the power forward spot himself. 

 

Haslem is so dependable he hasn’t lost his starting spot.  His biggest problem is his height.  His size is fine in that he is athletic and strong, but his arms aren’t freakishly long nor is he the athlete that Beasley appears to be.  Without a dominant center next to him, Haslem won’t find many easy opportunities such as the ones he used to get at the top of the key when Shaquille O’Neal was down low.  To his credit, Haslem has found ways to keep scoring, but with a different O’Neal, Jermaine, who is a jump shooter as well, Haslem has lost some of his effectiveness.

 

Jermaine will be only 31 years when the season begins, but his body has worn out and his post game is almost non-existent.  The last few seasons he has vowed he is healthy to start the season, but shortly after there is a set back.  His backup, Jamaal Magloire, is actually a pretty decent option, just not as a starter.  If O’Neal can indeed find some rejuvenation powers in his legs he can be the second option until Beasley finds his way, and maybe Miami can get back into the playoffs with a chance at the second round.

 

 

Washington Wizards

Prediction: 41-41 7th seed playoffs

Depth Chart

Point Guard	Gilbert Arenas	Randy Foye	MVP: Gilbert Arenas Biggest Surprise: Gilbert’s attitude Biggest Letdown: Not a huge win total improvement Key to success: Defense Grab bag: No hibachi, no agent zero, no fun?
Shooting Guard	Mike Miller	Nick Young
Small Forward	Caron Butler	Dominic McGuire
Power Forward	Antawn Jamison	Andray Blatche
Center	Brendan Haywood	Javale McGee

 

The return of Gilbert Arenas has been prophesized as the return to the playoffs and a run into the second round for the first time since 2005.  Arenas has vowed not to be a "character" this year, which he deemed a distraction.  It sounds good in theory, but the Wizards hope it doesn’t take the joy out of Arenas’ game.  Don’t be surprised if Arenas’ scoring numbers fall, but his assists rise, as he now has two more weapons to feed in Randy Foye and Mike Miller.  Miller will add some floor spreading ability and Foye is a combo guard not unlike Arenas, meaning they can play together and both are dangerous with the dribble creating problems for the defense which can open up the outside.

 

Caron Bulter has been a steady contributor, making two of the past three all-star games and is dynamic enough to hit jumpers and slash.  His defense is above average and he will spend a lot of time guarding the opposing teams’ best wing because of Miller’s defensive deficiencies.  Dominic McGuire and Deshawn Stevenson can still come off the bench as "stoppers" but with Bulter’s and Miller’s heavy minutes don’t expect those two to see much time.  Nick Young is the scorer off the bench who pairs with Foye in the backcourt.  He should be able to add a lot of the same things that Miller does with his outside shooting.

 

Antawn Jamison is old faithful.  He keeps on rebounding and making a variety of shots.  When you watch him play, you don’t immediately see or feel his impact, but by the end of the game he has 21 points and 9 boards.  Over the last 2 years he has only missed 3 games.  He just doesn’t get the credit that Vince Carter, the player he was traded for, gets because of his down to earth game.

 

Jamison, Butler and Arenas can be counted on to perform. And when the 3 are healthy, or at least mostly healthy, they make the playoffs.  Now with these added pieces, which don’t include Flip Saunders, the Wizards should have a good opportunity to meet their fan’s expectations.  Arenas is still the key.  If he goes down, the team might be able to get to the playoffs still, but they won’t take the next step.  Even healthy, a low seed in the playoffs will make it very difficult to get to the second round.  The Wizards need to shoot for the fourth or fifth seed to have a chance.

 

Atlanta Hawks

Prediction: 47-35 4th seed playoffs

Depth Chart

Point Guard	Mike Bibby	Jeff Teague	MVP: Joe Johnson Biggest Surprise: Jamal Crawford Biggest Letdown: Won’t make any steps, as everyone at the top got better. Key to success: road wins Grab bag: Who would win in a game of Chess; ZBo or Josh Smith?
Shooting Guard	Joe Johnson	Jamal Crawford
Small Forward	Marvin Williams	Maurice Evans
Power Forward	Josh Smith	Joe Smith
Center	Al Horford	Zaza Pachulia

 

Atlanta has better talent than last year.  Jamal Crawford is a perfect scorer off the bench. He can create his own shot and play with the ball or off the ball.  He is a perfect compliment to Joe Johnson when Bibby is out and Johnson runs the point.  Both are ball handlers and Johnson; who is still underrated, even on a two time playoff team with great scoring, rebounding and assists numbers for a guard/forward, can be a distributor and playmaker instead of a scorer.  Even with Joe Johnson playing more of a Point Forward or Point Guard, I still think Bibby is one of the biggest keys to playoff success.

 

Bibby statistics have lowered, but his game is still there.  He is only 31 years old, was healthy, and during the season had decent if not great numbers.  It was his playoff numbers that dwindled, and that is when he has shined in the past.  The Hawks aren’t expecting Kings vs. Lakers 2002 numbers, but rather for him to get in that zone during parts of the series or at least parts of the game. He has great handles and a good pull up jumper.  Great pull up jumpers are the most lethal shot a player can have because it is un-guardable, and Bibby as that capability.  On offense Bibby can have his way with even the elite guards and it was sorely lacking against the likes of Mario Chalmers and Mo’ Williams in the last post season.  Jeff Teague was a nice pick up for a backup man behind Bibby, and could eventually inherit the starting job in a few years when Bibby really begins to decline.

 

Marvin Williams will start at the three, with Josh Smith at the four.  Neither are very good defensively.  Williams lack the lateral quickness to stay with smaller, quicker small forwards, and Smith, outside of weak-side blocks hasn’t shown any real ability to slow down true post forwards.  These two positions are really where the defense breaks down.  They both have incredible length and can be good off the ball defenders. Smith is better at guarding small forwards and Williams still hasn’t shown the ability to guard any position.  On the offensive side of the ball Josh Smith’s game is high flying with an added touch from mid range the last few years.  He is shooting more three pointers but they aren’t falling any more regularly.  He needs to continue to play like Amare-lite, except try on defense.

 

Al Horford mans the five spot again, and again he gets closer to never playing his natural position at the four.  He doesn’t really have a choice as the only other option at center is Zaza Pachulia.  Al Horford is a good center, but he can’t contend with the likes of Dwight Howard, Shaquille O’Neal, Kendrick Perkins on a nightly basis.  And Pachulia is even worse.  Those are the centers on the top three teams.  Atlanta gets beat inside, and having a center, at least defensively, so that Horford can move to the power forward position for parts of the game could help challenge the Celts, Magic and Cavs.  It would be nice to see some sort of a trade for a Nazr Mohammed or Desagna Diop type center, at least for Horford’s sake.

 

Orlando Magic

Prediction: 58-24 2nd seed playoffs

Depth Chart

Point Guard	Jameer Nelson	Jason Williams	MVP: Dwight Howard Biggest Surprise: Matt Barnes Biggest Letdown: JJ Redick Key to success: Integrating Vince Carter Grab bag: This team is stacked, and I don’t mean Stan Van Gundy’s sweater.
Shooting Guard	Vince Carter	JJ Redick
Small Forward	Mickael Pietrus	Matt Barnes
Power Forward	Rashard Lewis	Brandon Bass
Center	Dwight Howard	Marcin Gortat

 

 

I like that attitude that the Magic expect to be playing the Lakers again in the finals.  Going out and getting Vince Carter, Brandon Bass and resigning Marcin Gortat proves it.  They are playing to win it now.  Jameer Nelson is fully healthy and he should provide a pick and roll option now that Hedo Turkoglu is off in Toronto.

 

Critics seem to think that the pick and roll with Turkoglu was there most effective weapon, and it no doubt yielded results, but it also became the single focus of the offense when others shots weren’t falling and it bogged down the flow of the entire game plan.  Yes, it worked well against the Cavs, and was still working against the Lakers, but it can be game planed against, like it became so versus the Lakers.

 

Carter makes the offense more dynamic.  He is a player who can find his own shot without relying on being set up.  He is a better defender than Turkoglu (when he wants to be) and unless he doesn’t buy into the team concept, is an overall upgrade over Turkoglu.  I don’t think it should be too much of a concern that he will cause chemistry problems because he knows what is at stake.  This is the best collection he has been a part of in his career. Starting in the backcourt with Carter is Jameer Nelson, who was an All-Star last season, but missed all of the playoffs until his return in the finals.  Nelson still wasn’t comfortable in the finals, but his injury is healed and has time to re-mesh with his team.  He should have another good year at All-Star level.  Jason Williams is interesting as his backup.  It’s not quite certain how many minutes he will play and how effective he can be, but Anthony Johnson is solid and can play the backup minutes as well.

 

Pietrus will most likely start as the “stopper” small forward so that Carter won’t have to guard the best of the two wings.  Pietrus will most likely be substituted for Brandon Bass and have Rashard Lewis slide down to the three spot.  This is probably the best lineup, Nelson, Carter, Lewis, Bass and Dwight Howard at center.  With Lewis starting at the four he will be able to bring the opposing power forward out on the perimeter giving more space for penetration and, most importantly, Dwight Howard.  As Bass and backup center Marcin Gortat will play together a lot and feed of each other’s hustle.

 

Howard is again at center, and with Yao Ming out for the year is no doubt the best center in the league.  His free throw shooting improved as the playoffs went on and if he shoots closer to 70% than 50%, he is going to be that much more dangerous.  His rebounding, defense, and athleticism are all top of the class, he just needs to find a little better offense touch, and a 8-10 foot jumper to keep the opposing team from sagging in.  The Magic rely on Howard to get good looks outside and his passing out of the doubles will be essential to open shots.

 

The Magic think they should get back to the finals because their team more experienced and better equipped that then team last year.  As long as the offense is straightened out and Carter has a commitment to defense, there aren’t too many reason why it can’t happen.

 

 

Next division preview in 2-3 days.

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On Tuesday the Charlotte Bobcats tradedJason Richardson, Jared Dudley and a 2010 second-round pick to the Phoenix Suns for Raja Bell, Boris Diaw and Sean Singletary

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This wraps up the Previews.  This also includes playoff series.

There is a larger Blazers Preview

Previous Southwest Division Preview Link

 http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/10/14/634996/western-conference-preview

Previous Pacific Division Preview Link

http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/10/10/632524/western-conference-preview

Previous Altantic Division Preview Link

http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/9/15/614761/eastern-conference-preview

Previous Southeast Division Preview Link

http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/9/2/606260/eastern-conference-preview

Previous Central Division Preview Link

http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/9/4/607441/eastern-conference-preview

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Western Conference Preview will culmintate with a "larger than the others" Blazers preview

Previous Pacific Division Preview Link

http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/10/10/632524/western-conference-preview

Previous Altantic Division Preview Link

http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/9/15/614761/eastern-conference-preview

Previous Southeast Division Preview Link

http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/9/2/606260/eastern-conference-preview

Previous Central Division Preview Link

http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/9/4/607441/eastern-conference-preview

Continue reading this post »

Western Conference Preview will culmintate with a "larger than the others" Blazers preview

 

Previous Altantic Division Preview Link

http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/9/15/614761/eastern-conference-preview

 

Previous Southeast Division Preview Link

http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/9/2/606260/eastern-conference-preview

 

Previous Central Division Preview Link

http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/9/4/607441/eastern-conference-preview

Continue reading this post »

This is the final division of the Eastern Conference, next will be Western Conference by division, culiminating with a "larger than the others" Blazers preview. There are also Eastern Conference  playoff and award predictions in this post.

 

Previous Southeast Division Preview Link

http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/9/2/606260/eastern-conference-preview

 

Previous Central Division Preview Link

http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/9/4/607441/eastern-conference-preview

 

Continue reading this post »

I will do the Eastern Conference preview  first by division, and then do the Western Conference, culiminating with a "larger than the others" Blazers preview.  I will also do playoff predictions and strategies on why teams will win or lose. 

Previous Southeast Division Preview Link

http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/9/2/606260/eastern-conference-preview

 

Continue reading this post »

 I will do the Eastern Conference preview  first by division, and then do the Western Conference, culiminating with a "larger than the others" Blazers preview.  I will also do playoff predictions and strategies on why teams will win or lose. 

Continue reading this post »

Assuming that Brandon Roy plays about as well, and often as he has so far (19ppg 5rpg 5 apg) and LaMarcus gets to, or close to the heralded 20ppg and 10rpg, these two will combine to sign contracts that are at least somewhere in the $18-22 million in 2010-11.  The next year, Oden will need to sign a contract, which may be larger than those two, seperatley.  These are the “Big Three” and combined that will make around $35 million I imagine.  Possibly they could be closer to $40 million.  That is a large portion of money for three players, but they also can possibly lead us to the coveted championship(s).   We have many, what most of us Blazer fans refer to as, role players.  Martell, Travis especially will likely garner more than the mid-level ($6-8 million each).  Blake will stay around the same $4-6 he is now.  That is another $18-20 million.  So far, with six players we have about $54 million against the cap.  Add in Bayless, Rudy and Batum ($4.7M combined)  as guaranteed salaries amd we are closer to 60M in 2011-12.  The salary cap will most likely be $62-65M based on the last three years of growth.  That is 9 players, barely under the salary cap.

Now, we don’t have to sign all these guys,  most likely it will be one or the other with Martell and Travis, or Blake may lose playing time and not wish to come back.  We may need front court depth and have to have Channing or Diogu.  There are numerous scenarios, but the point is that all of these players are taking cap space and are there really any better options for the same amount of cash? The Big Three should be a given, and placing somewhat questionable talent around them shouldn’t be a big deal, but why not save our cap room and work with what we have? 

There was a team that had 2 great players with a slew of pretty good role players, that team was the 99-00 L**ers

O’Neal/Oden-Big, strong guys that command the double team and can pass out of it.

Bryant/Roy-I actually think that Roy is better than K*be was in 2000 and can bring more to the game.

AC Green. Horry, Grant/Aldridge-Aldridge is already better than all three of these guys were in ’00,’01 and ’02, so this would be a great advantage.

Derek Fisher, Ron Harper/Blake- Is Steve not as good as these two were during the Championship years?  Fisher and Blake are very similar is style of play, and Harper had leadership but he couldn’t hit a three or stay in front of anyone. This also shows you that a great true point guard isn’t needed.

 

Glen Rice, Devon George/Martell is a better defensive player than Rice was and a better offensive player than George

Bench:

Rick Fox, Brian Shaw, Robert Horry, Mad Dog/Travis, Rudy, Bayless, Frye-Not even close, I’d take any two guys from our list and have them play all four of their guys.

 

The L**ers built around two dominant players, the Blazers will have at least three “great” players and I can see Oden and LMA becoming dominant in the future.  The Blazers and its fans should only be concerned with retaining our best talent and using the resources that we have so if something doesn’t turn out the best, we have the ability to change it without a complete rebuilding (Which means no Luxury tax). 

 

 

I have been a Portland resident my entire life, and  I have followed the Blazers as well. While I remember the teams of the late 80’s and early/mid 90’s, it isn’t a truly vivid memory.  I had been a Warriors fan and Sprewell was my favorite player and didn’t actually understand the fuss about the “Jail Blazers.”  But there is one game, a particular moment that I became a die-hard Blazer fan, and I can replay the entire 20 minutes in my head.

It is the greatest game I have ever watched.  Spree’s Knicks had already been knocked out by the Pacers so I reverted to the Blazers as the team I hoped would win.  It was Game 7 vs. The L**ers.  With 4 minuets left in the 3rd quarter the Blazers played to their the abilities.  Steve Smith took over, ‘Sheed was getting easy dunks and Sabonis was containing Shaq while Scottie led them all.  The emotion was great, the definition of game face and concentration on each players face brought a sensation of pride during literally the most important game of the year and probably since the ’92 finals.  The game was so methodical in each teams attack, that a basket seemed a huge accomplishment.  Portland was up 15 before the shots stopped falling.  Even when I watch it today, I still get angry.  It pumps me up so much to the point that I need to play my anger out in soccer or a pick up game of basketball.  After that game I became a true Blazer fan because now I lost with them and wanted these guys that I saw go through intensity in winning and then the heartbreak of losing to destroy the L**kers and anyone else.

People say that the bandwagon fans join when the team is winning, and doing well.  In my case, I hated the losing so bad that I became a real Blazer fan.

It came down to believing that my team didn’t deserve to lose.  Now, I hope with Brandon and LaMarcus and Travis the intensity they provide will be enough.