SB Nation User Blog: Grey Home

Typical Blazer Conversation

Grey Home — Fri, 19 Dec 2008 21:16:12 -0000

Bru # 1:

While I think the Blazers are over achieving right now and doing a great job amidst a tough schedule, I see one glaring issue. . .
We've got a log-jam on our team. . . and these players are predominantly found at two positions.

PG and SF
PGs: Blake, Sergio, and Bayless in that order
SFs: Webster, Outlaw, and Batum in that order
Mike and Mike this morning reported that Bayless is frustrated and potentially would like a trade because of his limited playing time.
Earlier this season, Outlaw verbalized his frustration with getting his starting spot taken from a rookie.
Same thing with Sergio. . . he was frustrated earlier this season.
We're a quarter way into the season and while we're one of the deepest teams in the league, do you really think the Blazers front office/coaching staff are going to be able to keep all 15 over-inflated NBA egos in check? Doubtful. . . Players want the playing time to get paid more when their contracts are up. That's how the NBA works. You can't keep potentially great players on the bench and expect them to not complain. If I was Bayless, I would be complaining to. I just tore up summer league, I'm a savage on the court, and I'm getting 6 minutes a game.
When was the last time a lottery-pick rookie averaged 6 minutes a game? Especially one with as much potential as Bayless.
As much as Blake is a good person, loves Portland, he's an extremely average NBA player. He's got poor lateral quickness, no strength, and limited driving ability (I know Roy does, but it would be helpful to have two starting backcourt players with that ability).

Bayless also has something that both Blake and Rodriguez lack. . .that edge, that ability to not back down to anyone (e.g. see elbow to Kobe in game one, and walking through Garnett's antics last game against Celtics). He's a better defender, has better driving ability, and is considered by the squad to be one of the best, if not thee best shooter on the team.

Everyone is always saying, "Let's just let this young team grow together."

We can have a great young nucleus that grows together, but realistically, our most valued assets are Roy, Oden, Aldridge, Fernandez, Martell, and Bayless (I think he's going to be great). We can let these guys grow together, and throw in a star vet and be in the NBA elite now and later, instead of just later.

I would like to see a package of Outlaw, Frye, and Rodriguez and/or Blake for a veteran PG and bruiser PF (a Brandon Bass type player comes to mind) as a backup for LaMarcus.

I would really like to see Bayless become the second string PG. . .as mentioned before, we need a better defender that will stop opposing PGs from getting down the lane and someone to take a little pressure off B Roy. The more experience we give Bayless now, the faster he can progress into becoming that great combo guard the Blazers could really utilize.

My thoughts on the situation I guess. . . regardless, I'm excited to be a fan of such a promising young franchise built around great character and talent. I'd be happy playing with what we have. . .I just worry about playing with almost too much depth, and having to deal with the frustration of deserving players getting snubbed and becoming problematic.

Thoughts?

First Reply (Bru#2):

In regards to Bayless;

There have been plenty of lottery picks that haven't seen playing time from the get go. Jermaine O'Neal, Darko Milicic, Andrew Bynum, Martell Webster, Luke Jackson, Fred Jones, the list goes on. While I would prefer Bayless on the court to Sergio or Blake even, I don't think he is ready. I also don't believe he asked for a trade. Are guys unhappy when they don't play, always. I want my guys on the bench to want to play, that is competitive nature.

I want Bayless to be the starter in 2-3 years. I do see a need to get him more playing time for development purposes and I think after this season, Sergio will be gone.

One thing that isn't talked about is the development of Fernandez's game. His all around game is average. While he is a good passer and shooter, he can't drive and is mostly dependent upon a playmaker to get him the ball, that is partly the reason Sergio is sticking around. He and Rudy play well together. Rudy needs to figure out how to create is own shot that isn't a step back 3. This will allow him to fit better with Bayless, Blake or Roy.

I love Channing but I agree he will be gone next year if not this. This will open up minutes with Travis at the 4 in the second unit. While he may not be strong he will be helped by the length of Przybilla and Batum with Rudy and Bayless/Blake. Diogu can also fill in.

All this said, I don't think anything needs to be changed this year. Martell still hasn't been integrated into the team and that could change our makeup. I say let it ride into the offseason when some of the money comes off or our books so we have flexability and we can decide then.

Second reply (Bru # 3):

think we already have the bruiser in Ike Diogu (who I have always thought was better then brandon effing bass). I'd like to see a GOOD point guard, not a VETERAN point guard. Whether or not they have been in the league awhile doesn't really mean s*** to me. I don't want a Jason Kidd type or a Mike Bibby type or anything like that. Somebody who is good and still has something left... and honestly there aren't a whole lot of candidates out there. I think finding a good 3 might be a whole lot easier, but then you cut into a lot of guys' minutes. I'm still for standing pat, unless you can get something for Frye.

Graham, I agree almost completely with the slight correction that J O'Neal wasn't a lottery pick. Anyways, Lottery picks frequently don't get to play, especially when they are 19 year old college freshmen. I actually like sergio's game, and see him as a longer term solution then Blake. You can always teach someone to shoot, and thats what he's missing on the offensive end.

Third Reply (Bru #2 again):

Sergio needs to improve shooting and defense, and that is the most important thing Bayless brings. We give up so much penetration, which can be attributed to so many things like bigs not sliding over, but mostly it is Sergio and Blake's lateral quickness, or lack thereof. Neither is athletic which is Bayless' advantage.

Good catch on "What about Jermaine?" I'll substitute it with Marcus Haislip of Bucks infamy.

Bobcats and Suns Trade analysis w/Blazer Impact

Grey Home — Thu, 11 Dec 2008 16:58:06 -0000

On Tuesday the Charlotte Bobcats tradedJason Richardson, Jared Dudley and a 2010 second-round pick to the Phoenix Suns for Raja Bell, Boris Diaw and Sean Singletary

Suns Outlook:

Terry Porter must have the confidence that he can make Jason Richardson buy into the Suns attempt at defense because it doesn’t appear that the need any added punch to their offense.

While in the past 3 years the Suns have had the most potent offense in the league, this year they are still the only team in the league shooting over 50% from the field and are averaging 101.7 PPG, good enough for 7th in the league. They are scoring about 9 points less than last season where they were the third highest scoring team by a difference of a point. Defensively they gave up 105 ppg on 45% shooting in 2007-08 compared to this years’ 101.1 on 45% shooting. The have attempted the 2nd fewest shots per game this year which explains the drop in scoring and scoring defense is attributed to the pace of the game, which Phoenix has obviously chosen to slow down.

Jason Richardson can’t possibly ‘improve’ a team’s offense that is already shooting over 50% can he? And Raja Bell, the team’s only truly defensive player wasn’t a slouch on offense, being able to hit an open three and guard the 1-3 positions very effectively. I would consider him a top 10 lockdown player in the league, but what separates him is that he guards the best perimeter player every night, as opposed to K. Bryant and other superstars who only “lockdown” for portions of the game.

I doubt that Porter is giving up on defense this early in the season so it sounds as if GM Steve Kerr is taking another “shot.”

While the talent level is certainly improved from and offensive perspective it doesn’t necessarily mean it is the right fit.

Note: Jared Dudley is a good bench warmer but he won’t get much run for the Suns.

Bobcats Outlook:

What is going on? Is Felton going to start at the 2 with Augistin at the 1? How does Raja Bell and a 3rd string (at best) point guard help this team? They already have the lowest scoring offense in the league and they trade away a guy who is scoring 19 ppg? Boris Diaw, while originally thought to be a steal in Joe Johnson trade and since regressed. He can’t play power forward, I don’t care what Hollinger says. He is a finesse player even at the 3, and at the 4 he’ll have to bang. As far as cap space goes, it makes the cash spread around a little more, but besides being able to move pieces and sign role playing free agents there has to come a point when teams should give up on the Wade/Bosh/Lebron sweepstakes because they are all going to resign with their current teams or go to the best situation to win now, which isn’t aren’t any of the teams with cap space outside of the Blazers and maybe the Nets in two years.

Michael Jordan has seriously hurt this franchise by ‘giving away’ their franchise player.

What does this mean for the Blazers?

Good things. First off, the Blazer’s have never matched up well with the Suns. One of the reasons being that Raja Bell has made it just tough enough to effect Brandon Roy’s game. Without him, Brandon will be able to make that many more plays. It sounds simple, and it is. Of course on the flip side, Richardson will have to be guarded, but his range is equal to Bell’s and it is the sinking nature of our defense against O’Neal and Stoudamire that leaves the perimeter open, and so that change is minimal.

It also weakens the Bobcats who the Blazers still have to play twice.

I will say that Phoenix, if they do buy into the defense that Porter is trying to preach could end up being a match-up problem at 4 of their 5 starting positions. I still think Phoenix will end up with a much worst record than last year but will be a much better playoff contender making it to the Western Conference Finals.

Predicions

http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/10/27/647692/western-conference-preview

Oden isn't the End All

Grey Home — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 15:27:26 -0000

Watching the game was nothing less than frustrating. The Blazers couldn't hit shots, and outside of long jump shots and three pointers, none were taken without being under intense duress. Listening to 'The Game' this morning in which Mr. Dawson silenced callers with concerns other than Oden's ankle, worried me. Is this all the franchise has come down to? As worried as I am about Oden's injury and its severity, it was actually apparent that Oden, and the expectation upon him were wearing on the entire team. The guys were plaing nervous. Visually and mentally. Where was the scowls, the smiles. The game was over before it started, not because they gave up, but because a 15 point deficit to the predicted NBA champions is not an easy task to mount. When Greg when out of the game, the team settled, and looked much more comfortable. We didn't play much better, but the second half was much better than the first. The score didn't widen by the same margin as the first and players who had yet to find space, particularly Brandon Roy started to get the shots we are accustomed to seeing. Przybilla knows his role, Oden is still figuring his out. He'll miss a few games with sprained ankles, and go up against teams with players capable of guarding him, but learning to play within the team will take time, around one or two full months.

Need to improve:

1) Spacing-allowing our wings and guards a chance to penetrate and score or dish

2) Movement-Two man games don't necessarily mean only two people are involved

3) Setting the offense-Blake specifically, needs to get the Blazers in their offense early. His inability to pull up off the dribble hurts his penetration ability. If he is able to get the offense set early (and lobbing it into Oden or Aldridge to try and back in for 5 seconds doesn't count), then the Blazers can get easier baskets as oppossed to jump shots.

4) Zone Defense isn't rotating fast enough. This is a matter of will and knowing which corners are ok to cut i.e. identifying personnel on the court.

5) Aldridge and Frye both need to initiate the offense out of the high post with their size and outside shooting ability. This is crucial and creates the best chance at spacing under the basket. Defenders cannot sag off of Frye nor LMA. LMA can drive to the hoop, shoot a jumper or pass to a cutter or a bigman in the post a la Kevin Garnett and Tim Duncan, this is absolutely the most efficient way to use him in combination with Oden. When Oden is out, then LMA can slide deeper into the post.

Problems that will naturally correct themselves:

1) Jump Shooting will not equal a 19% in a quarter very often (this includes, Roy, Blake and Aldridge against the Lakers)

2) Greg Oden will get his dunks

3) Brandon Roy will be himself the entire game

4) The Rotation will be fine tuned after 3 weeks and then again when Webster returns

Frankly, the Lakers are scary good and are much better than the Blazers right now. The are so long and that was the most defensively active they have played in years. That said, the Blazers missed many open shots that Phil Jackson himself even alluded to, and that is the difference between a close game and a blow out. The Blazers played their first game with a player who has been thrust into a role that is effecting our creators and nothing can simulate that better than a game, there is no way to 'ease' into it. Even without Oden, the Blazers are formidable, and don't think that because this game was such a poor showing the Blazer fans have anything to worry about. The Blazers will still make the playoffs.

Western Conference Preview-Northwest Division w/ playoffs

Grey Home — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 20:23:01 -0000

This wraps up the Previews. This also includes playoff series.

There is a larger Blazers Preview

Previous Southwest Division Preview Link

http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/10/14/634996/western-conference-preview

Previous Pacific Division Preview Link

http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/10/10/632524/western-conference-preview

Previous Altantic Division Preview Link

http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/9/15/614761/eastern-conference-preview

Previous Southeast Division Preview Link

http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/9/2/606260/eastern-conference-preview

Previous Central Division Preview Link

http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/9/4/607441/eastern-conference-preview

Northwest Division		Playoff Seeds
Utah Jazz	54-28	3
Portland Trailblazers	49-33	6
Denver Nuggets	33-49
Minnesota Timberwolves	24-58
Oklahoma Thunder	23-59

Oklahoma Thunder

Prediction: 23-59 do not make the playoffs

Depth Chart

PG	Russell Westbrook	Earl Watson	MVP: Kevin Durant Biggest Surprise: Jeff Green’s production Biggest Letdown: Won’t have a legitimate center Key to success: Running by creating turnovers Grab bag: The Thunder need to fire the scout that researches their centers.
SG	Kevin Durant	Damien Wilkins
SF	Jeff Green	Desmond Mason
PF	Chris Wilcox	Joe Smith
C	Nick Collison	Johan Petro

Oklahoma City might as well be an expansion team, because that is about the quality of their players. Surprisingly though, they are going to be annoying to defend. Their wings, starters and reserves, are incredibly athletic. Jeff Green, who will start at small forward, and Desmond Mason, who will back him up, are easily in the top tier of athleticism in the league. While neither is an accomplished outside shooter, Jeff Green will have improved his jumper enough that the defender can’t back off of him and give him free jump shots.

Kevin Durant and Damien Wilkins provide a much wider range of offensive skill than Green and Mason. Wilkins, despite being unable to dribble with his left hand, is a steady ball handler and can set the offense. His three point shot is very good, especially from either corner and he is long enough and tall enough that it is hard to bother his shot for most 2’s. His shooting percentage was low last year, at 40% but In November and half of December he averaged about 14 ppg and shot near 50%. If he can at least get his shooting percentage closer to 50% for the year he will be a good option off the bench for Durant. Durant, if he continues to fine tune his dribbling, will a dreadful defensive assignment. He is 6’9” and has a ‘Stretch Armstrong’ reach. He has a feathery jump shot combined with above average athleticism. At the end of last season he started to “get it” and became a ‘demand the ball-type’ player instead of an, ‘I’ll take it because you told me to’ guy. He can shoot from all over the floor, drive to the hoop, and has put on enough weight that he can start to hold his own in the post. Guarding him with most shooting guards won’t work because he is too tall, and asking a small forward to slide over creates a match up problem with Jeff Green able to over power most shooting guards. There just isn’t an easy way to counter this combination of size and skill.

Russell Westbrook is the new point guard for the Thunder. He is an excellent defender and driver because of his superb athleticism. He will initiate the offense but don’t look for too many assists out of offensive sets. Most of his stats will come from running on fast breaks and either hitting Green or Durant, or just taking the ball all the way to the hoop. Watson provides as the steady backup and can play with Westbrook at the 2. The Thunder don’t need Westbrook to do much besides play defense and look to attack on offense, he will not be relied on to, at this point, to run the offense.

Up front are Nick Collison and Chris Wilcox, who are both capable of 10 ppg and 10 rpg. Neither will get there, but the threat of those numbers is there, which means they aren’t completely incapable. The problem here is that neither player is prime post player. Pairing Collison or Wilcox as as ecod option with a star would make them much more viable. They are both essentially hustle players and asking them to do more than that takes them out of their comfort zone. Collison in particular would be a great compliment to a legit center like Yao Ming or even Zydrunas Illgauskas in Cleveland. Wilcox can put up points and is another extremely athletic player who will thrive in a fast break up-tempo offense.

The Thunder will most likely have another 2-3 years before they really turn the corner. They don’t have many tradable pieces outside of Wilcox, and Durant still needs at least another year before he is an elite scorer (25+), Jeff Green needs to continue to develop his outside shot and Westbrook will need to learn how to run the offense in slow sets. Go Sonics…

Minnesota Timberwolves

Prediction: 24-58 do not make the playoffs

Depth Chart

PG	Randy Foye	Sebastian Telfair	MVP: Al Jefferson Biggest Surprise: Sebastian Telfair starts…a lot. Biggest Letdown: Corey Brewer’s shot. Key to success: Inside, outside game. Grab bag: The Timberwolves will make the playoffs if Mike Miller shoots 100% from behind the line, the 3 point line.
SG	Mike Miller	Rashad McCants
SF	Corey Brewer	Rodney Carney
PF	Kevin Love	Craig Smith
C	Al Jefferson	Calvin Booth

Trading for Kevin Love was good move for the Timberwolves because they didn’t need another guard in Mayo and Love is not a reach for talent. The league knows what you are getting with Love. He is a solid big man who can shoot and pass like a perimeter player and is extremely adept at outsmarting his opponents in necessity to make up for his lack of NBA level athleticism. Love’s numbers are entirely dependent on the amount of minutes he plays. He will be as solid in his rookie year as he will in three years which isn’t a bad thing. He is already so skilled that there isn’t a lot of room for improvement and playing next to Al Jefferson isn’t going to hurt. Love will never be a 20+ scorer, but he could be a 16-18 ppg with 10 rpg and 4 apg and the ability to hit the three.

Jefferson is almost the anti-Love. He is more of a bruiser who uses his athleticism to get the rim rather than his smarts. He gets to the foul line and for a big man his 72% is deadly. He will never be as good as Kevin Garnett, the man he was traded for, but there aren’t many players in the history of the NBA who will be. Jefferson is easily the center piece of the team and as the Timberwolves improve over the next few years, could be a perennial all-star.

Another reason Jefferson will have a big year is that defensives won’t be able to key on him because of shooters like Rashad McCants, Love and especially Mike Miller. Miller, behind the Celts’ Ray Allen and Utah’s Kyle Korver, is the one of the best pure shooters in the league. He is big and tall for a shooting guard and is able to get a clean look on whoever is guarding him. His ball handling is about average, but his ability to pull up off the dribble is what makes him so dangerous. Backing him up is another great scorer, Rashad McCants. He put up 15 ppg off the bench (he did start 25 games). He is able to come in and pick up right where Miller leaves off. He is a good three point shooter, but he also can get to the rim. With a better record last year, he would have gotten serious consideration for 6th man of the year. The other starter is Corey Brewer, who hasn’t been able to transition his offensive game from College thus far. Defensively he is still solid, but if he is ever able to get an offensive game outside of close to the basket hoops he can become a Bruce Bowen type wing who can play great D and open the floor on the offensive end.

The TWolves sport two point guards who have yet to show they can handle the year ‘round duty. Randy Foye has been injured often and as a combo guard hasn’t had much of an opportunity to play at the point for long periods of time. He can definitely score, and is a playmaker, but at this point the TWolves need a PG that can get the ball into Miller’s and Jefferson’s hands. Sebastian Telfair is the back up and shockingly, is still in the league. He had a decent year in 07-08 but like Foye, mainly needs to penetrate and find the open man and not worry much about scoring.

A lot of people are picking the Timberwolves to be a sleeper pick in the west. Not a playoff team, but a surprise to play much better than they did last year. While they certainly have improved, the Western Conference has gotten deeper, meaning there are more good teams. Where are the Timberwolves going to get their wins? Against the bottom feeders like the Thunder and the Grizzlies yes, but how many games can they beat the middle of the pack like the Nuggets, Warriors, Blazers and Clippers? There aren’t many games to be won for the Timberwolves and they don’t get to play the Eastern Conference every other night. I think the will be improved but the win column won’t be much of a change.

Denver Nuggets

Prediction: 33-49 do not make the playoffs

Depth Chart

PG	Anthony Carter	Chucky Atkins	MVP: Allen Iverson Biggest Surprise: Anthony Carter is good Biggest Letdown: Defense Key to success: Outscoring the other team Grab bag: This is going to be the highest scoring worst team in the last 10 years
SG	Allen Iverson	J.R. Smith
SF	Carmelo Anthony	Renaldo Balkman
PF	Kenyon Martin	Linas Kleiza
C	Nene Hilario	Chris Andersen

Trading away Marcus Camby was plain not good. Saving money in the NBA is like leaving the TV behind in the occurrence of a fire, it shouldn’t happen. The goal is to make money, not save it. Without putting a great product on the floor, is that going to happen? Essentially the fan takes heed that management is giving up on the current era. There is absolutely no way that the Denver Nuggets win a championship this year with their current roster. Camby at least gave them a fighting chance.

With Camby’s absence, the hopefully fully recovered Nene will start at center. Nene is a good player, but he hasn’t had much run in this offense due to his injuries and he certainly isn’t the player that Camby is. He is a huge question mark. Kenyon Martin is at forward, and without Jason Kidd feeding him the ball, nothing more than a solid player. Neither of these players can nor will play over 32+ mpg simply because of their fragility. It isn’t encouraging that their backups are a small forward and a player who has just returned to the league after a drug problem. Linas Kleiza won’t be asked to guard many power forwards, but the fact that he is coming off the bench will mean he won’t have much of a choice in who takes advantage of him.

Allen Iverson is one of the greatest scorers in the history of the league. Despite his short comings, whatever people may label them as; Iverson has always proven himself on the court to be a hard worker. He literally throws himself at his work. In Denver he hasn’t scored as much because he hasn’t had to. But this year, without any defense behind him he knows that he has to score more, has to lead, create for teammates, and in short, takeover every game. This could and probably will, completely backfire. Not because Iverson will alienate his teammates, but because no matter how much he scores, their opponents will score more. One of the best stories that came out of the pairing between Iverson and Carmelo Anthony is that it did not hinder either player’s offensive game. They both took fewer shots but shot higher percentages than in recent years. That experiment is working. Anthony could score 30+ if Iverson was gone, but he would have to work harder for it, especially because the man responsible for getting them the ball is Anthony Carter.

The Nuggets and the Timberwolves could easily exchange their records, but I think Allen Iverson will be on a mission this year and be able to single handedly keep the Nuggets have no business being in.

Portland Trailblazers

Prediction: 49-33 6th seed playoffs

Team Overview: Portland finds itself in a good position; they have the personnel, they have the chemistry, and they have high expectations. Hype and expectations are not synonymous with one another. The Blazers are expected to do well, and with their team, they should. Don’t worry about expectations. Expectations are only bad when you don’t meet them right? The Blazers are young, their leaders (Roy, Blake, Aldridge) won’t let them slide. This team will turn the corner and know how good they are as soon as Aldridge and Roy have bad games, but the team still wins. The pressure will come off the team and they will start to play. There will always be some nights that things just don’t go your way, but with so many options style of play, usually a solution can be formed.

Starters: The Trail Blazers’ starters are young for the most part. But the two guys running the show, Steve Blake and Brandon Roy are sages with the basketball. The game doesn’t get out of hand with these two calming ball handlers. They can get the ball where it needs to go and they can play off of each other interchanging between the shooting guard and the point guard. The Blazers will play from inside-out with their big presence on the blocks in Greg Oden and LaMarcus Aldridge. Double teaming one of them may work, but not both. Aldridge has more space and the other shooters on the outside. Blake, Roy, and even Batum can get jumpers with regularity when given ample time.

PG-Steve Blake

Scouting: Blake is exactly what this team needs. He doesn’t try to do too much. He doesn’t look for his shot over teammates, ever. You never see Blake take a shot and say, “he should have passed that one.” He makes careful decisions and because of that, doesn’t rack up assists. He can hit the open shot, specifically from three where he is constantly left open. Blake’s defense isn’t more than average, but his work rate is tremendous which allows him to ‘will’ his body into place. Above all, players like playing with him and that is ultimately what kind of sentiment you want players to have towards their point guard.

Outlook: Blake will need to get more aggressive attacking the basket. If he probes more he can find his big man’s hands, or a corner shooter. If nothing else, he can draw a foul or put it in the basket. Defensively he needs to shadow PG’s towards space rather than playing straight between the man and the basket. With help behind him, he can dictate where the offense moves the ball.

Season stat line: 9 PPG 6 APG 1SPG

SG-Brandon Roy

Scouting: Roy will be considered a top 10 player in the league after this season because his exposure at the national level due to TV. His statistics are great, enough to warrant an all-star selection, but they don’t tell the whole story. He literally takes over the game with the ball in his hands. He can pull up for a shot, drive on anyone and finish in traffic. If the traffic is too dense he can find a teammate for an open shot. He breaks down all offenses so fluidly that when fans watch him they ask, “how did he make that?” He can be a lockdown defender defensively as well, but right now his tough defensive assignments are usually in crunch time. He has exhibited a nose for the ball at the end of games.

Outlook: Translating his defensive prowess to a full game ends up being a conditioning issue. If Roy can get to an elite level of conditioning while playing 37+ minutes a night he could be Hall of Famer when it is all said and done. This is the one hark on Roy, he is great at many things, but not elite at any particular one. His multi-facet game is what makes him an elite player, but not something that sets him apart from any other elites. Roy needs to carve a niche, something more than a go to move that makes him completely unstoppable and that card may be defense. The worst thing to say about him is that he isn’t the absolute best. I don’t think Roy has much to worry about.

Season stat line: 19 PPG 6.5 APG 5 RPG

SF-Nicolas Batum/Martell Webster

Scouting: Right now Batum is the starter because of his ability to play defense and the fact that if Outlaw was brought into the starting lineup, he would meddle with the harmony that is the bench. His shot is coming along and he will be able to hit shots from the corner and his dribbling is adequate but not enough to go by someone.

Webster is injured, but figures, with his new commitment to defense, better handle and always gorgeous shot to be the perfect fit when he returns.

Outlook: Batum should be fine as a starter because as a rookie he will be surrounded by the team’s best talent. Batum won’t be asked to do much more than play defense and hit wide open shots. He will hold this spot until Martell Webster is fully recovered from his injury and may have a shot of keeping it if all things go well. He won’t get many minutes but will start each half. He can earn playing time from his performance based on a night to night basis.

Season stat line: 5 PPG 4 RPG 1.5 SPG* *as a starter

PF-LaMarcus Aldridge

Scouting: When he is hitting from the outside it is impossible to guard him. He has great quickness, foot speed and full court speed. His quickness allows him to slip by similar sized opponents and his foot speed in the post helps him spin and jab to get the defender off balance. In the open court he is faster than his defender 9 times out of 10 and will get easy baskets at the rim. Defensively he is long and gets a hand in the offensive player’s face. He is a good help shot blocker and his rebounding is sound.

Outlook: LaMarcus Aldridge is his own worst enemy. He has a great stroke from the outside, but sometimes it just doesn’t hit. Aldridge started to go inside towards the end of last season and we can only hope he continues. When his outside shot isn’t falling he needs to learn that he can still get his points inside and at the free thrown line. His back to the basket skills are there, but he needs to force his way inside. Defensively he needs to try and box out instead of releasing. He tried to release too early last year and it allowed some offensive rebounds. He needs to use his lower body when getting backed-in in the post rather than leaning with his upper body. If the offensive player turns and shoots, his long arms can’t bother the shot as much as if he stays upright where he can challenge many more shots.

Season stat line: 22 PPG 8.7 RPG 1.5 BPG

C-Greg Oden

Scouting: This is the closer player to Shaq that the league has seen. Oden has an uncanny ability to do a standing dunk from 3 or 4 steps away. His strength is tremendous and his athleticism, in due time, will be on the scale of Amare Stoudemire. He goes after rebounds instead of letting them fall to him. He is a good enough foul shooter that fouling him equals points.

Outlook: Despite all of Oden’s prowess, he will not need to put up ridiculous numbers. His area of expertise is defense and that is what he will be called on to provide. Rebounding, blocks, alternating shots and dunks, lots of dunks, dunks on people’s heads is all he needs to do. A big area of concern is his ability to stay out of foul trouble and his conditioning. The condition will likely solve itself as the season progresses, but knowing when to foul and when to go for a block will need to be lessons learned fast.

Season stat line: 13 PPG 11 RPG 2.2 BPG

Bench: Portland’s bench aims to be one of the best. With Travis Outlaw, Rudy Fernandez, Sergio Rodriguez, Channing Frye and Joel Przybilla, this should be the best second unit. This doesn’t include the rookie Jerryd Bayless who could break into this rotation at any point in the season and will get some minutes anyway. Outlaw and Fernandez will play significant minutes off of the bench and will keep a good scoring punch when Roy and Aldridge are off the floor.

Season stat lines:

Rudy Fernandez-12 PPG 3 APG

Travis Outlaw-12 PPG 3 RPG

Channing Frye-7 PPG 3 RPG

Joel Pryzbilla- 3 PPG 7.5 RPG 2 BPG

Team Outlook: The Blazers can play to their strengths, which are quite many. Coach McMillan will have to find the best combinations on the floor but he won’t have to necessarily worry about any egos. These players like each other, which makes it easier for players sharing time to coexist. Besides natural growth in the NBA game, Portland’s players don’t need to work on much individually besides the basics of improving their shots and defensive ability. With so many weapons they won’t have many dry spells, and this should allow the focus to be on D. Outside of injuries the single greatest threat to the Blazers is their team defense. Last year the Blazers played a bend-not-break style defense. This year the need to force more turnovers so that can get easy points. McMillan has already put a light on some of his plans. In the preseason, the Blazers showed a pressure defense several times. With the seemingly unlimited quality bodies this allows starters to be fresh when needed.

All this said, the Blazers aren’t going to win a championship this year. They still need to grow a little bit, get their feet wet in much more intense games (playoffs). When Oden and Bayless and a few others have completely settled in, the Blazers can be perennial challengers.

Utah Jazz

Prediction: 54-28 3rd seed playoffs

Depth Chart

PG	Deron Williams	Ronnie Price	MVP: Deron Williams Biggest Surprise: Boozer will sign long contract Biggest Letdown: All the hubbub about Boozer Key to success: Let Deron and Jerry decide how to win Grab bag: I can’t remember which Collins twin was the good one anymore.
SG	Ronnie Brewer	Kyle Korver
SF	Andrei Kirilenko	C.J. Miles
PF	Carlos Boozer	Paul Millsap
C	Mehmet Okur	Jarron Collins

The Utah Jazz have all the right pieces in the right places. Deron Williams, their point guard is in the top 3 at his position. Ronnie Brewer is a defensive stopper-type wing who can hit an open shot, Andrei Kirilenko is solid at every aspect of the game and highly skilled at the defensive end, Carlos Boozer is a bruiser with a soft touch and Mehmut Okur as an accomplished outside shooter. The five starters all compliment each other, therefore enhancing each player’s skills. It doesn’t end with the starters though. Kyle Korver comes off the bench to provide a deep threat, Paul Millsap provides front court energy, and CJ Miles can continue with a decent defensive presence on the perimeter.

One crucial element of every team is chemistry. Boozer seems to hold that in the balance. Unlike; Okur, Kirilenko and Brewer, the loss or unhappiness of Deron Williams and/or Carlos Boozer would have this team on the outside looking in. Deron Williams though, is likely, as the starting PG to remain content, Boozer on the other hand always seems to be looking for the next thing. It could be a matter of whether or not he sees a chance to win a championship, but he already has the Jazz worried he is looking elsewhere at the end of the season. If this becomes a legitimate concern it could create turmoil for the Jazz and disrupt the chemistry. The worst case scenario would be if the Jazz end up trying to trade Boozer before the deadline in fear he will not resign (player option in 09/10) at the end of the year. This huge distraction could seriously damage the Jazz’s hopes and despite their chemistry, a loss like Boozer would take serious mending over several years, he is not an easily replaceable piece.

Despite all this, as none of it could come to fruition, the Jazz should be able to perform well. An injury here and there to anyone but Deron Williams could be managed, because he is after all, the one that makes them go. The Jazz will need to hit there stride going into the playoffs. Their chemistry has a lot to do with the momentum they will carry, and that needs to happen at the right time. While their interior defense leaves a little to be desired, the perimeter D in the match-ups category is uncouth for opposing players because of their length and speed. This cuts down on a lot of sliding over by big men and leaves them to only worry about their assignment.

Utah has a good thing going. With the right match ups in the postseason they could easily have a run at the championship. Last year, the Jazz were right on the cusp, it only takes a little more luck and momentum to push them further.

PREDICTIONS

West MVP: Chris Paul West Most Improved: Al Thornton

West Defensive POY: Tim Duncan West ROY: Greg Oden

West Playoff Predictions:

1st Round

1st seed Los Angeles Lakers vs. 8th seed Dallas Mavericks-Lakers win 4-0

A couple close wins in Dallas for the Lakers, but they easily dispatch the Mavs in what may be the Mavs last trip to the playoffs for awhile.

2nd seed New Orleans Hornets vs. 7th seed Phoenix Suns-Suns win 4-1

Phoenix flexes their muscles in the post and while their defense isn’t much against the Hornets, Amare and Shaq destroy West and Chandler. Chris Paul, the MVP, does all he can. Raja Bell discourages him just enough in the series that he can’t pull it out.

3rd seed Utah Jazz vs. 6th seed Portland Trailblazers-Blazers win 4-3

The Blazers, who had played Utah tough all year use their depth in this back and forth series which culminates in a win over the Jazz in Salt Lake City. Brandon Roy and Oden are the difference makers.

4th seed Houston Rockets vs. 5th seed San Antonio Spurs-Rockets win 4-2

The Rockets made it out of the first round. Yao averages a double-double and Alston runs circles around Parker.

West Semi-Finals

1st seed Los Angeles Lakers vs.4th seed Houston Rockets-Lakers win 4-3

Artest contains Kobe as best as possible, but Gasol abuses Luis Scola and company on the front line. TMac is non existent the entire series except for game 7 when he goes for 42 points. Sadly, the shots weren’t falling from the other boys in red.

7th seed Phoenix Suns vs. 6th seed Portland Trailblazers-Suns wins 4-3

The series is completely grind it out. The Oden-Shaq match-up is classic, and Aldridge-Amare doesn’t disappoint. The difference comes down to three-point shooting as even Grant Hill joins the party for the Suns.

West Finals

1st seed Los Angeles Lakers vs. 7th seed Phoenix Suns-Lakers win 4-3

Phoenix has now found their style and this is another great series for big men. Nash is slowing down the offense and forcing the ball inside to Shaq who is playing with a chip on his shoulder. On the other end, Kobe makes Raja Bell piddle himself, which leads to the disparity in wins. Somebody get a mop.

NBA MVP: LeBron James NBA Most Improved: Ronald Stuckey

NBA Defensive POY: Kevin Garnett NBA ROY: Greg Oden

NBA Finals

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Boston Celtics-Celtics win 4-3

Everyone picked the Lakers, but Boston says nuh uh. The Celtics, completely healthy, use their team defense to slow down the game. Garnett essentially becomes the point guard and averages 7 assists for the series. The rivalry is truly renewed.

Good News about D. Miles

Grey Home — Fri, 17 Oct 2008 15:19:19 -0000

Good News about D. Miles

Second Segment, "One Last Thing"

CNNSI Blazer's Preview

Grey Home — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 18:44:47 -0000

CNNSI Blazer's Preview

Go Blazers

Western Conference Preview-Southwest Division

Grey Home — Tue, 14 Oct 2008 19:13:34 -0000

Western Conference Preview will culmintate with a "larger than the others" Blazers preview

Previous Pacific Division Preview Link

http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/10/10/632524/western-conference-preview

Previous Altantic Division Preview Link

http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/9/15/614761/eastern-conference-preview

Previous Southeast Division Preview Link

http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/9/2/606260/eastern-conference-preview

Previous Central Division Preview Link

http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/9/4/607441/eastern-conference-preview

Southwest Division		Playoff Seeds
New Orleans Hornets	56-26	2
Houston Rockets	54-28	4
San Antonio Spurs	52-30	5
Dallas Mavericks	42-38	8
Memphis Grizzlies	24-58

Memphis Grizzlies

Prediction: 24-58 do not make the playoffs

Depth Chart

PG	Mike Conley	Kyle Lowry	MVP: O.J. Mayo Biggest Surprise: O.J. Mayo becomes a PG again. Biggest Letdown: The bench Key to success: Knowing when to slow the tempo Grab bag: Darko grows a beard to be mistaken for Gasol in order to start. It doesn't work
SG	O.J. Mayo	Greg Buckner
SF	Rudy Gay	Marko Jaric
PF	Hakim Warrick	Antoine Walker
C	Marc Gasol	Darko Milicic

This team may not be very good this year, but they will be lightning fast and be amusing to watch. Their best player, Rudy Gay, has so far, been a better NBA player than college player, and last year became a premier scorer. He is also the leader of the team, whether anyone is willing to admit it or not. Gay usually lined up at SG in 2007-08 but this year he will move to the 3 to make room for OJ Mayo. Mayo is a bit hard to figure out. He was a point guard in high school, essentially a shooting guard in college and is a bit on an unknown in the NBA. I figure he will play a kind of Brandon Roy type hybrid guard, but with more scoring and less creating. In the long run he will need to do more of the dirty work for him and Gay to be successful, but for now, he just needs to get his feet wet.

Getting these two guys the ball is Michael Conley, who had too many injuries last year to say if he will be good or not. I think he will be alright. It is amazing how small he looks on the court, but he is quick and fast with good handles. Even his outside shot has improved since college. He reminds me of Kenny Anderson with his left hand and speed, but again the lack of height ends the comparisons. He will need to be a distributor and opportunistic scorer who will literally run the offense up the floor.

Marc Gasol and Hakim Warrick round out the starters, and at this point, they are reserves forced into starting roles. Gasol could be good, but he would be better suited as the second option in the post and with Warrick down there, this isn’t going to happen. I like Warrick, except for blocking former Demo Michael Lee in the championship game, but he is an energy guy who is 6’8” and skinny, not who a team wants as the starting power forward. But again, Warrick suits the running style of this team and will get some easy baskets in transition.

The Grizzlies are definitely a team that should fare better in the future, but for now are stuck in the NBA’s toughest division just trying to find their way.

Dallas Mavericks

Prediction: 42-38 8th seed playoffs

Depth Chart

PG	Jason Kidd	Jose Juan Barea	MVP: Dirk Nowitzki Biggest Surprise: Josh Howard’s remarks remain quiet. Biggest Letdown: Josh Howard’s play remains quiet Key to success: Jason Kidd scoring Grab bag: Cuban needs is start over.
SG	Jason Terry	Eddie Jones
SF	Josh Howard	Jerry Stackhouse
PF	Dirk Nowitzki	Brandon Bass
C	Erick Dampier	DeSagana Diop

Josh Howard, despite is unsavory behavior off the court, is a stud. He plays stingy defense and can score in a variety ways including a pretty decent shot from behind the arc. I don’t think his antics are much of a problem. Are they stupid? Yes. Are they offensive? For some people, apparently they are.

One guy that you never hear about anymore is The Jet 2.0, Jason Terry. Three years ago, Terry was the point guard who led this team. Terry was the difference maker in the playoffs, and in a way, with Dirk Nowitzki, was the heart of the team. Now, with the ball almost exclusively in Kidd’s hands, Terry doesn’t get as much of a chance as part of the offense. He is dangerously quick with the ball, hence his nickname, and can also shoot from the outside. His distribution skills, while not on Kidd’s level, are pretty good. He just needs the ball in his hands more. In a lot of systems he would be the perfect 6th man, but Dallas is stuck with Jerry Stackhouse.

Stackhouse will the first guy off of the bench again after he struggled the first part of last year (29% Field Goal in first month, ew) and finishing with his career low scoring average (10.7 ppg). He didn’t fair much better in the playoffs, averaging 6.2 ppg on 32% shooting. Not exactly the numbers you are looking for from a sixth man. Neither efficient, nor a scorer, Stack needs to get back to his old ways. There will be nothing preventing him from jacking it up again, so let’s just hope it hits the bottom of the net (after going through the cylinder first, or course).

Power forward is the deepest and most dangerous position for the Mavs. Nowitzki is established, is a former MVP and is in his prime. His playmaking is really the last improvement he needs to make offensively; otherwise he is a nightmare to defend. Defensively he could use some work, but it is too late in the game to make any significant improvements, he will have to rely on the coach to provide easy assignments on D so that he can be effective on O. Coach Carlisle’s calling card happens to be defense so that should help Nowitzki. Backing him up is Brandon Bass, who last year, was added to the list of “beastly undersized backup power forwards that have found a niche and stuck in the NBA.” He joins Jason Maxiell of Detroit, Carl Landry of Houston and others as a energy guy off the bench who just overpowers opponents with strength and energy to get the ball and put in the peach basket. Bass’ strength has rivaled old (age, not era) Shaq’s in the last few years as they have traded blows in the post. Bass is also very quick and uses the two attributes to get easy buckets. Desagana Diop or Erick Dampier is really a crap shoot. They both take up space and aren’t asked to do anything besides play solid defense, which they both do. They allow Nowitzki to guard the lesser front court player and hopefully won’t need double team help on their man. I think 6 or 7 rebounds apiece is really all you need from these two.

The Dallas Mavericks are another team, like the Suns, whose window is closing. They are getting older, specifically their point guard. Flat out, Jason Kidd did not improve the Mavericks last year in the midseason trade. You can argue that there wasn’t significant time to jell, but I don’t think the Mavs are built to make a championship run. Jason Kidd is still a good player and will get his assists but he lost most of his quickness and ability to stay in front of quick point guards. Not that Chris Paul doesn’t burn everyone, but he absolutely made Kidd look foolish in the playoffs last year. Honestly, Devin Harris fit this team better, and now all the pressure is on Kidd to get the Mavs over the hump before he retires or just plain doesn’t have it.

San Antonio Spurs

Prediction: 52-30 5th seed playoffs

Depth Chart

PG	Tony Parker	Roger Mason	MVP: Tim Duncan Biggest Surprise: Ime Udoka takes the reins from Bowen Biggest Letdown: Finley’s skills Key to success: Getting to the playoffs with a decent seed Grab bag: How can Duncan play for the US Hoops team, but on NBA.com is listed as an int’l player (Virgin Islands? You can’t have it both ways Stern!
SG	Michael Finley	Manu Ginobili
SF	Bruce Bowen	Ime Udoka
PF	Tim Duncan	Matt Bonner
C	Fabricio Oberto	Kurt Thomas

All I hear about the Spurs is how old they are. The problem is, the positions in which the players are old don’t need to be young. They are skill positions, and that is how the Spurs play, very skilled.

Tony Parker is young at 26, and plays the position (PG) most likely needed to be young. His speed is incredible, combine that with his handle and staying in front of him defensively is a problem for defenders. His mid-range jumper is a splash and his three point shot is even respectable compared to where it once was, nonexistent. His distributing is good, but the offense isn’t run through him, so he doesn’t rack up a lot of assists, and his defense is good enough that guys aren’t freely driving the lane. His backup is Roger Mason, who was sort of an unsung hero in Washington last year when Arenas went down. He should be a good option off of the bench and is definitely an upgrade over 2nd all-time assists leader at Kansas (the Jefferson Demos’ own Aaron Miles is 1st) Jacque Vaughn.

At the 3, Bruce Bowen is back once again. At age 37, he is classifiably old for the NBA. Look closer though and you see that his declining athletic ability isn’t adversely affecting his defense. His lateral movement is stellar, he doesn’t need to leave his feet to jump to defend (one of the most overlooked defensive techniques) and offensively he is purely, and literally a spot up shooter. He isn’t in there to score; he averaged 6 ppg last year, but can still spread the floor with a three pointer from the corner. Bowen can play his 30 ppg guarding the other teams best player using dirty tricks and know that backing him up is another player similar to him in Ime Udoka. The Spurs have the lockdown defenders locked up.

Manu Ginobli isn’t the starter, but he is definitely the first option at the 2. He is 31 years old, but seems to be banged up a lot, including this year's Olympics. He plays a Dwayne Wade style of throwing himself all over the court, he really is quite good. Bringing him off of the bench doesn’t hinder him in anyway, either. In fact, it allows him to come in and dictate the game against lesser opponents (the other team’s bench). He is also extremely clutch because he can hurt you in so many ways, he can drive like Wade, but he can shoot it from deep too. Not fun to guard. Starting in front of him is Michael Finely, who is getting up there in years, and he is one Spur that the aging process is more apparent. He is still solid though, despite his lack of high flying and can hit the three enough that the floor is spread for their mainstay, Tim Duncan.

Duncan and Fabricio Oberto create the front line, and Duncan still remains the best Power Forward in the league, especially during the playoffs. When watching Duncan the last few years it doesn’t seem that he is working hard, rather, the game just comes to him. He doesn’t initiate the offense, but, usually Duncan facilitatesit out of the high post. He can hit 15-18 foot jumpers with ease, is strong inside and is a great passer. Foul trouble is the best defense against him. Kurt Thomas will be the back up to both of these guys, and yes, I am willing to admit that he is old, at age 36. But again, he plays simply, not trying to do anything out of his means, which is all the Spurs need him to do.

The Spurs are old, yes, but their age isn’t indicative of the way they play, and that is why they will continue to be a contender for this year and beyond.

Houston Rockets

Prediction: 54-28 4th seed playoffs

Depth Chart

PG	Rafer Alston	Aaron Brooks	MVP: Rafer Alston-yes I did Biggest Surprise: No one is hurt in the playoffs… Biggest Letdown: but chemistry is their problem. Key to success: Injuries (as in; someone getting injured would be good) Grab bag: This team is so deep that if roles aren’t established Ron Artest will join the WWE in order to become the heir to “the people’s champ (The Rock, not the Dawson).”
SG	Tracy McGrady	Brent Barry
SF	Ron Artest	Shane Battier
PF	Luis Scola	Carl Landry
C	Yao Ming	Joey Dorsey

Bill Simmons wrote an article about 8 years ago called Ewing Theory 101 that his friend came up with in the mid 90’s. The theory states that, “Patrick Ewing's teams (both at Georgetown and with New York) inexplicably played better when Ewing was either injured or missing extended stretches because of foul trouble.” Houston has a little bit of the same thing going on here.

Yao Ming, the Rockets’ center, got hurt when the team was 36-20, a very good record. It seemed the Rockets were going to struggle. Instead they continued their winning ways all the way to 22 in a row. Their style changed, their swagger changed. Tracy McGrady was having fun, Rafer Alston was revitalized and the whole offense played into Coach Rick Adelman’s offensive scheme. The ball was moving faster up the court, and the cuts and court space began to open up which countered the production lost from Yao’s injury. Now, if you ask anybody if they would rather have Yao, or not have Yao, then 100% would say they would take Yao. It becomes a trade off in production and how it is attained. Pundits like to say that the lack of Yao hurt the Rockets in the first round off the postseason, and it may have, but the biggest problem for the Rockets was the loss of Rafer Alston in the first two games. He came back in game 3 and they won. Then they won game 5 when Alston had another good game and eventually lost in 6 games. Alston may have meant more to his team than Yao in that juncture of the season, but the Rockets, and specifically Rick Adelman needs to get the best out of each player, that is the job of the coach. The point is, the Rockets showed that they could play another way successfully. The question therein lies is, which is the best way.

The Rockets added Ron Artest, which instead of improving the team is more of an insurance policy in the predictable event that McGrady or Yao get hurt. Battier moves to the bench, a mistake in my opinion, as is the idea of Artest starting at the 4. But again, this is going to work because someone is going to get hurt and Battier will slide back in to the starting lineup, or at the very least, have increased minutes.

Point guard should be fine with Alston and 2nd year player Aaron Brooks. Luis Scola continues at power forward, and played well if not great in the Olympics this summer. The bench up front is very thin, and Mutombo may or may not be with the team again leaving Carl Landry, Chuck Hayes and maybe Joey Dorsey, all small for the frontline to fend off the likes of players 3” taller and 30 lbs heavier. With Yao’s frailty, this may not bode well. This won’t matter until they get to the playoffs and opposing team exposes it, but during the season there should be enough pieces to fill in.

The Rockets have talent all over the floor, even more so now with the addition of Ron Artest. And while some of the bench still needs shaping, the Rockets should end up near the top of the Western Conference by the end of the year, because when things fall apart, they have the personnel to shape it back into something formidable. For the playoffs though, they will need Yao and TMac to be at full strength.

New Orleans Hornets

Prediction: 56-26 2nd seed playoffs

Depth Chart

PG	Chris Paul	Mike James	MVP: Chris Paul Biggest Surprise: Mike James’ stint at 2 guard Biggest Letdown: Byron Scott is out of ideas Key to success: A minor roster change Grab bag: How do you improve one of the league's best teams without tampering with the current roster?
SG	Morris Peterson	Rasual Butler
SF	Peja Stojakovic	James Posey
PF	David West	Julian Wright
C	Tyson Chandler	Hilton Armstrong

How refreshing are the Hornets? Under Chris Paul they have become one of the best teams in the west because everyone on their team just fits. Of course it helps when you have the best point guard in the world. Peja Stojakovic’s career had been losing steam since he left Sacramento. A couple years with you know who and he is raining threes again. Morris Peterson has become the now required perimeter defender/spread the floor guy and Tyson Chandler gets a lot of alley-oops from, you guessed it, Chris Paul.

Paul has done to the Hornets what Nash did for the Suns 4 years ago. In fact, New Orleans went from a mediocre non-playoff team into a top 5 team in the league. It can all be attributed to Paul who does it all. His man to man defense is 'only' above average but he makes up for it with steals. He can drive on anyone, is a above 40% shooter from midrange and has a respectable, albeit not consistent three point shot. Because he can do all this he is able to draw defenders, create space and find a man, regardless if they are open or not. His lobs never stray; he slows the tempo when needed and knows when he needs to call his own number. Behind LeBron James he is would be the most sought after acquisition. You just can’t say enough about a player who makes his teammates so much better. That said, the Hornets have some decent players, in particular, David West.

West was an All-Star last season, and sure, some of his production can be attributed to Paul, but West has been under the radar for quite some time. If you watch his games, he works for his points. He is an accomplished mid-range shooter and because of that he gets defenders to pop out at him as he drives towards the basket for a contested lay-up. He either finishes or gets to the line. He isn’t the ultimate benefactor from Paul as say Chandler is with his 5 dunks a game. West is bully on offense, and the Hornets are better for it.

I have to touch on this because so many others have their opinions; James Posey is not THE difference maker. Can he make a difference, yes he can, but he isn’t the same kind of difference maker that Robert Horry was 2-3 years ago. Posey is a good player, but there is a reason that he doesn’t start. He isn’t a great ball handler, not a great shooter outside of his spot ups and he makes a lot of bad decisions passing the ball. Now, in the last 4 years that he is coming off the bench, his minutes have been minimal and his mistakes not as apparent. He is a good player, but he won’t put New Orleans over the edge.

For the Hornets it comes down to this; their regular season is great, but they aren’t quite there in the playoffs. The need another big gun, a killer off the bench, or just some better front court depth before they are ready to challenge for a title. This might be the new Utah Jazz from the mid nineties, getting close, but never getting it all.

Western Conference Preview-Pacific Division

Grey Home — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 18:51:10 -0000

Western Conference Preview will culmintate with a "larger than the others" Blazers preview

Previous Altantic Division Preview Link

http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/9/15/614761/eastern-conference-preview

Previous Southeast Division Preview Link

http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/9/2/606260/eastern-conference-preview

Previous Central Division Preview Link

http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/9/4/607441/eastern-conference-preview

Pacific Division		Playoff seeds
LA Lakers	59-23	1
Phoenix Suns	46-36	7
LA Clippers	41-41
Golden State Warriors	30-52
Sacramento Kings	27-55

Sacramento Kings

Prediction: 27-55 do not make the playoffs

Depth Chart

PG	Beno Udrih	Bobby Jackson	MVP: Kevin Martin Biggest Surprise: Jason Thompson as surprise lottery pick becomes surprisingly good player Biggest Letdown: Brad Miller stops caring, but Spencer Hawes still sucks Key to success: Find a starting PG, Garcia perhaps? Grab bag: Only NBA team with 2 white trash centers
SG	Kevin Martin	Quincy Douby
SF	John Salmons	Francisco Garcia
PF	Mikki Moore	Jason Thompson
C	Brad Miller	Spencer Hawes

Kevin Martin, John Salmons and Spencer Hawes, and hopefully Jason Thompson are set to form the core of the Kings. On paper, they only lost Ron Artest, but compared to the rest of the Western Conference they are not improved. The starting lineup is ok, but essentially they are holding place until something better comes along. The only permanent piece is Kevin Martin.

Martin missed about 20 games last year, mostly because of injury. The Kings went 8-12. That was with Ron Artest. There isn’t a second fiddle this year. Kevin Martin is it. Brad Miller is the next closest player they have to a star. He was only an All-Star by default in previous years and has never shown he can carry a team. Martin absolutely cannot have a bad year this year if the Kings want to surpass expectations.

At PG, Beno Udrih will start and hope to continue from last year’s breakout. He needs to get more assists (4.3 apg last year) this year and improve his scoring from 13 ppg up to 15 ppg or so for the team to improve. Bobby Jackson is back, I assume and hope, to finish his career in Sacramento. He still has a bit left, and can be a solid backup, but he can’t just jack threes like in Houston. The PG’s on this team have to be careful to set their offense up every time down the floor. This isn’t a running team. Even the wing players prefer half-court sets, and the big men, specifically Brad Miller, aren’t able bodied enough to fly up and down the court.

Miller has been a mainstay since the playoff days, but it seems as if he is wearing down. His rebounding was solid last year (9.4), and he scored very efficiently, usually taking between 10-11 shots per game, but his energy level seems to be lacking. He needs another big man like Jason Thompson to be dangerous so Miller can play more of a supporting role like he did when he was paired with Chris Webber. Shareef Abdur-Rahim is now a coach, RIP.

I like Reggie Theus because he is a fundamentals coach. Because of this, the team will play the right way and be the thorn in the sides of some of the leagues better teams, but just don’t expect a lot results, they are still a couple players and a couple years from any serious run at the playoffs

Golden State Warriors

Prediction: 30-52 do not make the playoffs

Depth Chart

PG	Monta Ellis	Marcus Williams	MVP: Stephen Jackson Biggest Surprise: Ronny Turiaf Biggest Letdown: Monta Ellis at PG Key to success: Keep core together if a meltdown Grab bag: Biedrins makes 562.5 times the amount of annual income than his average countyman
SG	Stephen Jackson	Marco Belinelli
SF	Corey Maggette	Kelenna Azubuike
PF	Al Harrington	Brandan Wright
C	Andris Biedrins	Ronny Turiaf

The Warriors only lost one ‘real’ player, but he happened to be their best scorer, playmaker and their heart. Baron Davis, in my opinion, was the key to what made Golden State so formidable the last two years. His loss was huge, Corey Maggette barely eases the loss because he doesn’t bring the playmaking and leadership that Davis provided. Because of the arrival of Maggette, Monta Ellis has been pushed down to the PG, a position that he hasn’t really proven to be able to play.

Ellis is a good player, and despite missing an early portion of the season, he will be the most important piece to the Warriors success this season. He doesn’t have to be a true point guard to run the offense and he can still call his own number, and in that respect it won’t hurt the team. The biggest disappointment in Ellis running the point will be the drop in his production. He might put up as many points, but he isn’t going to be shooting 53% anymore. I wouldn’t be surprised if his shooting percentage drops a full 10% into the low 40%. He will have to find his own shot a lot more. One thing that Baron Davis did very well for Ellis was create space and match up problems for opposing teams. Ellis took less than 55 three point shots last year because he was constantly driving against bigger, slower shooting guards. Davis was defended by the point guard leaving Monta Ellis isolated on a player that couldn’t match his quickness. This year, Ellis will be guarded by the quickest player on the court. The best hope for Ellis is for Marcus Williams to show he can carry a team as the backup and eventually combine together in the backcourt

Stephen Jackson and Corey Maggette will provide support as the wing players. They are essentially interchangeable pieces at the 2 and 3 positions but Jackson is the better long range shooter. Jackson is now the heart and leader of the team. If his head is in the right place he can still be a difference maker. Maggette should flourish in Don Nelson’s attack and Kelenna Azubuike and Marco Belinelli should add scoring off the bench.

Up front, Andris Biedrins returns after signing a new contract and should be the energy guy that plays well in Warriors’ fast pace offense. Al Harrington also returns and will keep jacking up shots and not playing defense, much to the delight of Nelson. There are interesting prospects up front with Brandan Wright and Anthony Randolph, too. Randolph won’t likely get much time this year, but his future is most likely as a small forward and Brandan Wright is surprisingly showing a back to the basket game.

The Warriors don’t have enough talent to make the playoffs this year, or in the foreseeable future, their style of play is indicative of blowing teams out, or being blown out themselves, but the way they are shaped these next few years, after Don Nelson’s inevitable departure, hinges on developing the current young talent, and hoping that it translates into success.

Los Angeles Clippers

Prediction: 41-41 do not make the playoffs

Depth Chart

PG	Baron Davis	Jason Hart	MVP: Baron Davis Biggest Surprise: Camby and Kaman can play together Biggest Letdown: Rick Davis is a headache Key to success: Keeping turnovers down Grab bag: Coach/GM for a volatile coach like Dunleavy? Ouch.
SG	Cuttino Mobley	Eric Gordon
SF	Al Thornton	Ricky Davis
PF	Marcus Camby	Tim Thomas
C	Chris Kaman	Brian Skinner

Taking into account that Elton Brand left after the initial signing of Baron Davis, the Clippers have restocked their roster pretty well. They are definitely deeper there is no denying who the star on the team will be.

Davis, when healthy, is a big, strong guard, who can make miraculous plays. Now he is playing in his hometown where he’ll play comfortably, be the face of the franchise and want to prove the loss of Elton Brand won’t spell the end of making the playoffs. Davis can change a game, but most importantly, he get his team pumped up. When he drives and finishes with a dunk it is instant adrenaline for the fans and his teammates. I don’t know how to explain it. Baron Davis has the timeliest and inspiring dunks in the league. Jason Hart (not Jason Williams, sadly) becomes Davis’ backup. He will be deterring a lot to the scorers off of the bench, Ricky Davis and Rookie Eric Gordon, so his role is well defined and will be charged with running the offense about 20 minutes per game. If Baron gets hurt, he will be a starter though, and that could spell trouble.

Cuttino Mobley returns playing the 2 and, although he is on the downside of his career, is a great ball handler and excellent, albeit undersized, defender when given the task. He won’t need to score much this year and will be looked upon to hit outside shots and play mistake free. He is the longest tenured Clipper on the team who has seen significant minutes, and will inherit a leadership role alongside Baron Davis. Eric Gordon will spend most of his time at the 2 behind Mobely, but will get plenty of minutes as the season progress due to the inevitable injuries to Mobley and/or Baron Davis.

At small forward, Al Thornton is very exciting. He can flat out score, is athletic and hasn’t met a shot he doesn’t like, which is the biggest knock on him. This year he will get a lot more easy baskets just from run of play at a faster tempo. He’ll most likely be the second scoring option just because he can score in so many ways. Backing him up in the sixth man role is Ricky Davis. He is a head case, but can score, and that is all he will really be asked to do.

Up front is Marcus Camby and Chris Kaman. Camby, now healthy the last few years, is an elite shot blocker, great rebounder and one of the best passers at his size. He plays a lot like Garnett without the scoring, but even his offensive game is good. He can hit the mid range, hit his free throws, and post up a little. Kaman became the first option in the post last year because of the injury to Brand and showed that he is a capable scorer. What was most impressive is that his defensive stepped up. His numbers rose, yes, but by guarding the other team’s best low post player in most games, he was thrown into the fire, learning through experience rather than coaching, and it served him well.

I think the Clippers can be a team that ends up either ruining a couple of playoff contenders’ chances or making a run to the playoffs themselves. This of course depends on the health of Baron Davis, and Camby’s ability playing the 4 next to Kaman. The Clippers have a chance to be a good team and move in the right direction.

Phoenix Suns

Prediction: 46-36 7th seed playoffs

Depth Chart

PG	Steve Nash	Goran Dragic	MVP: Steve Nash Biggest Surprise: Shaq’s health lasts the year Biggest Letdown: Backup PG, whoever it is can’t be Nash. Key to success: Defense! (stomp stomp) Defense! Grab bag: Amare will quibble with Shaq, Porter proceeds to bitch slap them both.
SG	Raja Bell	Leandro Barbosa
SF	Grant Hill	Matt Barnes
PF	Amare Stoudemire	Boris Diaw
C	Shaquille O'Neal	Robin Lopez

This team got old very quickly. The average age of their starters is 32.4. Their bench is young, but outside of Barbosa, not very effective. Their regular season record will fall, but I see Steve Kerr’s thinking, this team is built for a seven game series, whether this is an effective ploy or not, remains to be seen.

Steve Nash is awesome at most things, dribbling, passing, shooting, dancing, soccer, and charities to name a few. One thing he isn’t good at, is defense. Amare Stoudemire doesn’t even try to play defense. This has been one of the biggest hindrances of the Suns the last 5 years in the playoffs. Nash, at 34 isn’t going to magically start excelling at defense, but I do think that his attention to it, may be easier. While Phoenix will still be a running team, they will look to do it out of the fast break, rather than the shoot it as soon as you can philosophy. Nash will again run the offense and put up great assist numbers, probably averaging somewhere around 17 ppg. There will be many more half court sets to fully incorporate Shaquille O’Neal, because this year, Terry Porter is at the helm, and knows that a full run ‘n’ gun attack isn’t going to get them very far.

On the wings, Raja Bell and Grant Hill will get the majority of minutes, and although Grant Hill no longer drinks Sprite, he is still a solid veteran with a basketball IQ that can make up for his shortcomings. Bell continues to be the guy who pisses off opposing players when he is guarding them, which is good, and he can make an open three, which he should get plenty of. Playing behind these two are Matt Barnes, who may start to save Grant Hill for the long run, and Leandro Barbosa, who is a blur with the ball, and despite an unorthodox release, is a good outside shooter. Matt Barnes may make a good addition to the starting lineup with his ability from beyond the arc and the down low presence of O’Neal and Amare sinking the D, and of course, Steve Nash can find anyone with the ball.

The goal of the Suns is to keep everyone healthy headed into the playoffs. Most likely that means that Nash, Hill and O’Neal will play less minutes and Barbosa, Boris Diaw and Matt Barnes will play more. The regular season record will reflect this. But whether they are the1st seed or 8th seed, no one will want to play a healthy Suns team in the playoffs.

Los Angeles Lakers

Prediction: 59-23 1st seed playoffs

Depth Chart

PG	Derek Fisher	Jordan Farmar	MVP: Hmmm. Biggest Surprise: Odom coming off the bench Biggest Letdown: Vujacic jacking shots Key to success: Pau and Bynum co-existing in the post Grab bag: I hate to say it, but this team is dominant
SG	Kobe Bryant	Sasha Vujacic
SF	Luke Walton	Lamar Odom
PF	Pau Gasol	Vladimir Radmanovic
C	Andrew Bynum	Chris Mihm

Talent wise, the Lakers are scary. Their bench is much better than it was in their last three championship years, and although Pau Gasol nor Andrew Bynum are as good as player as Shaquille O’Neal was, the offense is more balanced. Well, as balanced as it could be with Kobe Bryant on the floor.

In the backcourt the calming Derek Fisher is stable, can hit an open three and is a below average, but not terrible defender. He brings the ball up the court, but isn’t a creator and doesn’t get a lot of assists because of that. He does, however, set the tempo when the ball is in his hands and is Phil Jackson’s direct conduit onto the court. Jordan Farmar has turned himself into a capable backup and fills the Fisher role. The Lakers have never really have had to have a great point guard, and the one year they had a known point (Gary Payton) in the finals, they didn’t win the championship. This is how Phil Jackson’s system has always been.

Bryant is the stalwart. People hate him, as do I. I am willing to grant him great player status though. Anyone who can score 30 PPG and lead their team deep into the playoffs is a good player. Without that scoring, the Lakers would not be better. Saying that, Bryant does have a tendency to overshoot while the rest of the team watches and the whole rhythm is thrown off. This is why Bryant defers to his teammates early, hoping to get them involved. When the other Lakers don’t get involved is when they have trouble.

Helping them stay out of trouble are Lamar Odom, Pau Gasol, and Andrew Bynum, all of who can score on their own, and are great rebounders. Each one of these players is capable of 17ppg and 10 rpg in post. Odom will most likely slide to the 3 this year and play a Scottie Pippen-like point forward role. He will undoubtedly get some time on the front line as well. He may come off the bench some too to avoid the shot traffic of the starting lineup, but he can still be effective without shooting the ball, he took less than 10 last year and averaged almost 14 ppg. Bynum will come back as the starting center and if, as the Lakers hope, he continues where he left off, Bynum could be an All-Star this year. His offense is good because he has a nice touch and great footwork. And rebounding wise he is in the top 10 in the west if he averages the 10.2 rpg he did last year. What Bynum’s return also does is push Gasol down the to 4. Gasol was effective last year playing center, but as a PF he is harder matchup because of his size and length. There are not many teams in the league that can guard both Bynum and Gasol, as well as worry about Kobe on the perimeter. Each team will need like, eight guys, to double team them all.

Overall, they are the Lakers. So come May, you’re going see them on TV.

Eastern Conference Preview-Atlantic Division

Grey Home — Mon, 15 Sep 2008 16:38:18 -0000

This is the final division of the Eastern Conference, next will be Western Conference by division, culiminating with a "larger than the others" Blazers preview. There are also Eastern Conference playoff and award predictions in this post.

Previous Southeast Division Preview Link

http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/9/2/606260/eastern-conference-preview

Previous Central Division Preview Link

http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/9/4/607441/eastern-conference-preview

Atlantic Division		Playoff Seeds
Boston Celtics	60-22	1
Philadelphia 76ers	42-40	5
Toronto Raptors	41-41	6
New York Knicks	28-54
New Jersey Nets	22-60

New Jersey Nets

Prediction: 22-60 do not make the playoffs

Depth Chart

PG	Devin Harris	Keyon Dooling	MVP: Devin Harris Biggest Surprise: Chris Douglas-Roberts Biggest Letdown: Vince Carter Key to success: 2010 Roster Grab Bag: This team needs to move to Brooklyn if LeBron is to be a Net.
SG	Vince Carter	Chris Douglas-Roberts
SF	Bobby Simmons	Jarvis Hayes
PF	Yi Jianlian	Josh Boone
C	Brook Lopez	Sean Williams

The Nets have lost 3 of their top 4 players from last season. Jason Kidd was traded to the Mavericks, Richard Jefferson to the Bucks and Nenad Krstic went back to Europe. The returns on these trades or losses were mixed, especially when you consider nothing was received for Krstic who had been averaging 16.5 ppg and 6.8 rpg two seasons ago while getting 33 minutes a game. Yi Jianlian could end up being a good player, but Bobby Simmons hasn’t been healthy since his Clippers days. Devin Harris is a nice player, but I don’t seem him getting any better. This is the ideal situation for him though, he is essentially the second scoring option behind Vince Carter.

Something has to be said when a second unit can challenge the starters in a game. It can be seen as considerable depth or as a glaring weakness. The Nets second unit is good, but the starters are also very week.

Keyon Dooling has been a bit of journeyman despite only being 28, but he plays hard now, especially defensively and is fast and big (6’3” at least). Backing up THE Vince Carter is the rookie from Memphis, Chris Douglas-Roberts, who was picked at about the right spot in the draft. Vince Carter is an enigma. He is so flashy, yet doesn’t try or make his teammates better. He can’t be traded to another bad team, and most teams would be skeptical to take him anyway. He will continue to score his points though.

Jarvis Hayes is an excellent second fiddle to Bobby Simmons, and is really a Richard Jefferson clone. I expect him to play a majority of minutes at the three, especially once Simmons is inevitably injured.

The front court is very young and poor right now. This isn’t to say that in a couple years Brook Lopez and Yi Jainlian won’t be quality starters in the league, but right now that is saying too much. Josh Boone is a solid bench player, and Sean Williams has a chance to be the poor man’s Tyson Chandler, which is also known as an average NBA player who can make great plays. They also have Eduardo Najera, Stromile Swift and Ryan Anderson to shuffle through, so they have to get something from that position.

This team will struggle with defending and scoring, not a good combination. The hope is that the young talent progresses by 2010 in time for the LeBron James or Dwayne Wade sweepstakes.

New York Knicks

Prediction: 28-54 do not make the playoffs

Depth Chart

PG	Chris Duhon	Nate Robinson	MVP: Mike D’Antoni Biggest Surprise: Zach Randolph can run the floor! Biggest Letdown: Eddy Curry can’t run the floor! Key to success: Trading players Grab Bag: The reserves may be starting by break
SG	Jamal Crawford	Wilson Chandler
SF	Quentin Richardson	Danilo Gallinari
PF	Zach Randolph	Jared Jeffries
C	Eddy Curry	David Lee

The Knicks have a very dynamic lineup. The starting five is a traditional half court set, with two low post players in Zach Randolph and Eddy Curry who can set up on either side (though both seem to like the right side so they can go to their left). They have a spot up three point shooter with Quentin Richardson, a playmaker in Jamal Crawford and a distributing PG with Chris Duhon. It sounds good, but half court teams also have to play defense, and there isn’t enough scoring with a half court team for Randolph, Curry and Crawford to all get their 20 points. The bench is the complete opposite. Nate Robinson pushes the ball relentlessly, like a street ball player. He rarely looks to pass unless it is a guaranteed assist (e.g. alley oop). Wilson Chandler should probably be a starter. He is big, and can handle the ball. Danilo Gallinari is Knick’s first year coach Mike D’Antoni’s pick, so he will get minutes off the bench. Jared Jeffries never has amounted to much, and will continue on that path, but David Lee is the consummate hustle player.

Mike D’Antoni will determine the fate of this team. Utilizing the two post players seems to be the key. Defensives cannot commit to double teaming two players, especially with three other players who can shoot well from the perimeter. The bench will play D’Antoni’s style so he won’t have to make too many changes there, plus it will be a good change of pace from the half court game of the first unit.

This team will underachieve yet again, but after so many years of playing poorly, it will finally seem just about right to win 28 games. Of course, when the three best scorers on the team have a history of injury, 28 games could seem an accomplishment. The most interesting aspect of this team will be how the starting line-up changes from game to game. The coaching staff will have to do a lot of “feeling it out” to determine the best line-up to go with. Sooner or later, Coach D’Antoni has to realize that run ‘n’ gun can only get you so far, yet he is planning on shaping this team that way. In the playoffs, every possession counts, but I guess the D’Antoni won’t have to worry about that for quite some time.

Toronto Raptors

Prediction: 41-41 6th Seed Playoffs

Depth Chart

PG	Jose Calderon	Roko Ukic	MVP: Chris Bosh Biggest Surprise: Hassan Adams Biggest Letdown: Roko Ukic Key to success: Frontline health Grab Bag: This team looks like the new Pistons, post championship.
SG	Anthony Parker	Hassan Adams
SF	Jamario Moon	Jason Kapono
PF	Chris Bosh	Kris Humphries
C	Jermaine O'Neal	Andrea Bargnani

Toronto lost their “starting” point guard in TJ Ford, but they gained Jermaine O’Neal and it gives Jose Calderon full reign in the starting position. Ford and O’Neal have both been chronically injured the past few years, and in Toronto’s case, they gained their future point guard through subtraction and added a center who, 4 years ago, was an MVP candidate. Health is the key word here, and if O’Neal can stay healthy this team could be the sleeper in the east. Calderon is a top five point guard. He is literally the most efficient at taking care of the ball and putting players in scoring position. He can also score if needed, but with two great post players and the underrated Anthony Parker, he shouldn’t need to average more than 13 ppg. Jason Kapono will provide support at the 3 and 2 adding the best deep threat in the game. Dude can shoot. Starting at the small forward spot is Jamario Moon. He was a pleasant surprise last year, and should continue as an athletic stopper and an alley-ooptee.

Up front is where Toronto will do most of their damage. Chris Bosh is a perennial all-star and will be an MVP candidate this year if Toronto can get to 48+ wins. A lot of their success hinges on the O’Neal, Andrea Bargnani combo in the middle. O’Neal will play about 30 minutes per game which gives Bargnani plenty of opportunities backing up both Bosh and O’Neal. I still think Bargnani will be a good player despite his regression last year. He isn’t a center. When O’Neal needs a break, Bosh will move to the 5 and Bargnani will play the 4. I can envision some combination of Bosh, Bargnani, O’Neal or Kris Humphries playing the 3 through 5 positions and creating mismatch problems.

One question mark is the backcourt of the bench. Former Arizona guard Hassan Adams is very athletic, but isn’t an accomplished ball handler or outside shooter. It remains to be seen if these tools can be added to his repertoire. Backing up Calderon is a relative unknown in Roko Ukic, a Croatian National team player that didn’t instill any confidence that he can run a NBA team while playing in the Olympics. Toronto best sign another point guard to solidify that position, which can be done because they currently only have 13 players signed.

Like a lot of other teams, it would seem the Raptors season is based on health. Really, health only concerns one player, Jermaine O’Neal. He can be the difference between a first round exit and a deep run into the playoffs.

Philadelphia 76ers

Prediction: 42-40 5th Seed Playoffs

Depth Chart

PG	Andre Miller	Louis Williams	MVP: Elton Brand Biggest Surprise: Thaddeus Young Biggest Letdown: Samuel Dalembert’s temper Key to success: Resting the starters during the regular season Grab Bag: Samuel Dalembert has to have been the tallest goalkeeper in the history of soccer
SG	Andre Iguodala	Willie Green
SF	Thaddeus Young	Kareem Rush
PF	Elton Brand	Reggie Evans
C	Samuel Dalembert	Theo Ratliff

The starting five for the Sixers are one of the best in the Eastern Conference. But it is the bench where they will struggle. Off of the bench, Louis Williams will be able to do the things he does best, score by taking on defenders. Louis Williams is very Iverson like. He is small but gets into the lane and fines ways to get it to the basket. He has a great handle on the ball and can pass if needed, but he rather get the bucket himself. Also like Iverson, he isn’t a great three-point shooter, but he is good enough to where the defense has to respect it, which allows him to get his defender off-balance so he can use his great speed and athleticism to get by and to the hoop. He won’t have much help though, the other bench players are hustle guys, who are neither bad nor good, but there really isn’t a second unit, only rotation players who will fit alongside with some starters.

I have never liked Andre Igoudala’s game, but he sure gets numbers that back up the fact that I‘m wrong. He has a Vince Carter-like game except with great defense. He took more three pointers than he should last year, but as long as he doesn’t shoot more than four per game and gets to the free throw line, there isn’t much to complain about. Because of the emergence of Thaddeus Young last year, Igoudala will mostly play SG. Young looks to become a great SF. He can shoot the three, but doesn’t much because he is so good at getting near the basket to receive the ball and can get easier shots. He must improve his dribbling, but he has a Tayshaun Prince-type length, but with a stronger physique which could translate into a defensive stopper.

The big signing was Elton Brand. He has been so consistent that injury is the only aspect that hasn’t been satisfactory. I don’t think injury will be a concern this year, and so another 20 ppg and 10 rpg season should be in the books. Both Reggie Evans and Donyell Marshall are a solid back ups and can spell Brand enough that we won’t be warn down when the postseason begins. Dalembert and Ratliff are the centers and will do the dirty work by keeping people out of the lane. Brand is also a good shot blocker and the two will allow him to work off the ball more. Both of these centers have had a lot of injuries so having them both should suffice. Both these centers allow the wings to fly out because of blocks or rebounding. This will account for easy points.

The 76ers will be a much more dangerous team in the playoffs than the regular season because of their short bench. The starters will log longer minutes in the playoffs and the bench will be shortened. This immediately makes the 76ers a better team During the season, Coach Maurice Cheeks will play a dangerous game and prefer to rest his best players, hence the non-impressive regular season win total for the Sixers.

Boston Celtics

Prediction: 60-22 1st Seed Playoffs

Depth Chart

PG	Rajon Rondo	Eddie House	MVP: Kevin Garnett Biggest Surprise: JR Giddens Biggest Letdown: Kendrick Perkins Key to success: The Bench Grab Bag: Paul Pierce will demand that he is named MVP by season’s end
SG	Ray Allen	Tony Allen
SF	Paul Pierce	JR Giddens
PF	Kevin Garnett	Leon Powe
C	Kendrick Perkins	Glen Davis

The NBA champions essentially lost PJ Brown, and James Posey. Posey was overrated in the playoff run. He was good, hit some big shots, but he wasn’t the guy that put them over the top. This team has three future hall of famers! They are all in their prime for at least one more season! Their ability to play together is what won the title. All three of them bought into it. Kevin Garnett was the ring leader and I guarantee you his intensity level won’t fall in 2008-2009.

Let’s start with Garnett. His numbers weren’t his usual 22+ ppg and 12 rpg this year, but again, he didn’t need those numbers. Good defense isn’t always seen in the stats. That is what Garnett brought, not just individually, but he, and Doc Rivers, changed the entire team’s mentality. Garnett will put up better numbers this year, but not drastically. Leon Powe will be the primary back up and proved he can play more minutes effectively when he is given the chance. He is a better version of Jason Maxiell. Garnett may be the leader of the team, but Paul Pierce is the hero. Drama aside, he was the man in the playoffs and particularly the finals. He showed that he can be a good defender and he was definitely clutch. JR Giddens and the rookie from Kansas State, Bill Walker, will be the backups here and can provide scoring.

Ray Allen had a down year in that he didn’t shoot as well as in previous years. Most nights though, he was the primary defender on the opposition’s best perimeter player. That is what was most important to the team. His shooting percentage will go back up, but he will play less minutes during the regular season. There are two young swingman that can back him up; Tony Allen will be back and can make a difference on defense, and 1st round pick Giddens can shoot, dribble and jump out of the gym.

Rajon Rondo turned into a good point guard last year, but he was exposed for his lack of outside shooting in the playoffs. He isn’t THAT bad at shooting, he needs to improve his willingness to shoot. He did a great job setting up the offense and playing pressure, defense which helps the defense set up. Eddie House will back him up again.

The Celtics won’t put up as many regular season wins this year because the starters won’t play as many minutes, which is good for two reasons. One being, they can rest their bodies and get ready for the playoffs, and two, it allows the young players to gain experience in time for the playoffs. Giddens, Tony Allen and Walker can easily fill Posey’s shoes with court time. Powe is already solid and Kendrick Perkins can continue to take up space in the middle and do the little things.

East MVP: LeBron James East Most Improved: Rodney Stuckey

East Defensive POY: Kevin Garnett East ROY: Michael Beasley

East Playoff predictions:

1st round

1st seed Boston Celtics vs. 8th seed Miami Heat-Celtics win 4-1.

The Celtics have too much depth for Miami to handle. Wade averages 30+ but rookie Michael Beasley is severally outplayed by KG

4th seed Orlando Magic vs. 5th seed Philadelphia 76ers- Sixers win 4-2

Not really an upset, Brand and his front line are able to contain Dwight Howard and bruise Rashard Lewis down low. Andre Miller makes a living in the post against Jameer Nelson.

3rd seed Cleveland Cavaliers vs. 6th seed Toronto Raptors-Raptors win 4-3

LeBron does everything in his power but Jermaine O’Neal and Chris Bosh outscore the Cleveland big men by an average of 22 points per game. Surprisingly, the Raptors guard LeBron (6'8") with Hassan Adams (6'4") down the stretch which ends up being a great move.

2nd seed Detroit Pistons vs. 7th seed Washington Wizards-Detroit wins 4-3

The Wizards almost pull a huge upset, but Detroit seems to have some gas left after beginning the series 3-1 and allowing the Wiz back into it. Stuckey is the hero of the series, doing a good job of containing Gilbert Arenas and attacking him on offense.

East Semi-Finals

1st seed Boston Celtics vs. 5th seed Philadelphia 76ers-Boston wins 4-2

Philly steals the first game, but Ratliff goes down injured after playing significant defense. Dalembert fouls out 2 of last 4 games and is plagued by foul trouble the whole series. Ray Allen is lights out from the outside as Young and Igoudala go cold.

2nd seed Detroit Pistons vs. 6th seed Toronto Raptors-Raptors win 4-2

Calderon lobs the Pistons to death, throwing alley-oops to O’Neal, Bosh and Moon. The Raptors, down 2-1, play small ball and sit O’Neal for much of the time, deciding to push the tempo. Detroit cannot keep up…end of a pseudo contender.

East Finals

1st seed Boston Celtics vs. 6th seed Toronto Raptors-Boston wins 4-2

Boston, now rolling on all cylinders at home, win all their games in blowouts. Jermaine O’Neal destroys the Celtics centers, but all other positions and the bench go to the Celtics. They are back in the finals.

Eastern Conference Preview-Central Division

Grey Home — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 15:07:34 -0000

I will do the Eastern Conference preview first by division, and then do the Western Conference, culiminating with a "larger than the others" Blazers preview. I will also do playoff predictions and strategies on why teams will win or lose.

Previous Southeast Division Preview Link

http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/9/2/606260/eastern-conference-preview

Central Division		Playoff seeds
Detroit Pistons	50-32	2
Cleveland Cavaliers	49-33	3
Chicago Bulls	35-47
Milwaukee Bucks	26-56
Indiana Pacers	18-64

Indiana Pacers

Prediction: 18-64 do not make the playoffs

Depth Chart

PG	T.J. Ford	Jarrett Jack	MVP: Danny Granger Biggest Surprise: Josh McRoberts Biggest Letdown: TJ Ford Key to success: Finding a rotation Grab Bag: a lot of depth at a mediocre level
SG	Mike Dunleavy	Brandon Rush
SF	Danny Granger	Marquis Daniels
PF	Troy Murphy	Josh McRoberts
C	Jeff Foster	Rasho Nesterovic

I look at the talent on this roster and it doesn’t look so bad. I look at the depth of this team, and there isn’t huge drop off from the starters to the 3rd string. Then I look at the positional talent of this team, and it looks like 64 losses.

First off, they have four capable point guards. TJ Ford will start, with Jack coming off the bench, Travis Diener behind him and Jamaal Tinsley, who is essentially a lame duck. Jack can play the two, but not fulltime, TJ Ford will probably suffer another injury and Jamaal Tinsley will be traded, so the depth there is only a perception. Ford is a great up tempo PG and Jack can play the same way, so it looks as if this team is transitioning to a running team. The most talented position is at small forward, where there are another 4 good to average players. The Pacers’ best player, Danny Granger, averaged about 20 ppg last season and was the second option behind Dunleavy who had a breakout season, finally. Rookie Brandon Rush also plays the 3 but will play SG this year, and Marquis Daniels is also a SF who has shown flashes of an NBA starter, but he lacks consistency.

Upfront the pacers have considerable depth at Center with Jeff Foster the starter with Rasho Nesterovic and Roy Hibbert the back ups. Jeff Foster is solid, but would be better suited coming off the bench as an energy player, and Roy Hibbert probably isn’t ready for the speed of the NBA and will get limited minutes. Nesterovic has always intrigued me. He isn’t aggressive and seems to play passive, but when he gets minutes, he gets results. In the last two months of the season for Toronto, Nesterovic was in the starting lineup and averaged about 15 ppg and 6.5 rpg. Those are pretty good numbers alongside Chris Bosh. Most teams would love those numbers from their starting center. So, to see him start, wouldn’t be much of a surprise.

The Pacers will be the worst team in the east, but I also think the will be one to play to the competition. They will be in a lot of close games, but won’t get the W.

Milwaukee Bucks

Prediction: 26-56 do not make the playoffs

Depth Chart

PG	Ramon Sessions	Luke Ridnour	MVP: Michael Redd Biggest Surprise: Charlie Villanueva Biggest Letdown: Luke Ridnour Key to success: Andrew Bogut needs 15+ ppg and 10 rpg Grab Bag: Elson has gone down hill since starring in The Candyman.
SG	Michael Redd	Charlie Bell
SF	Richard Jefferson	Adrian Griffin
PF	Charlie Villanueva	Joe Alexander
C	Andrew Bogut	Francisco Elson

This is another team with a load of point guards; Luke Ridnour, Ramon Sessions, Tyronn Lue and Damon Jones. Jones will most likely be a perimeter threat only and see limited minutes, especially at the point. Luke Ridnour and Ramon Sessions will battle for the starting job. Sessions will win it and Ridnour will come off the bench until he loses his job to Tyronn Lue. Ridnour plays without the confidence he did while at Oregon, and I don’t see it coming back unless he gets off to a fast start. He won’t have many scoring options as he is the fifth option as a starter. Sessions on the other hand is a pass first point guard with size and the ability to defend. He had a coming out party at the end of last season when he became the starter. While the competition wasn’t the best, he put up gaudy assist numbers and even threw in some scoring when needed. If he averages half of the 14 apg he put up in the last couple weeks, then the bucks will have found the point guard of the future.

Michael Redd has become an elite scorer in the NBA, and has surpassed Ray Allen as the best pure shooter. Redd can also play defense if it is needed, and he will have to with Villanueva and Bogut behind him. Jefferson will be the second option again, but I figure he much rather play with Redd than Carter, because Redd cares more about winning. Redd and Jefferson will both get a lot of minutes because, if summer league is any indication, Joe Alexander is not ready for the show, especially at the 3. He is the perfect example of a ‘tweener, can’t dribble at the 3 and not big enough for the 4. Charlie Bell is alright and can spell for 10-15 minutes a game, but Adrian Griffin is losing the one thing he had, his defense, so the help there is minimal.

Bogut and Villanueva are decent options up top. Bogut, even though he never quite reached expectations as a number 1 overall pick, is still a good player and gets his numbers up every year. Villanueva could be a great scorer. He can shoot outside, can dribble and has good athleticism. I expect him to finally hold onto the starting role and contribute as the third option ahead of Bogut. Elson and Gadzuric can provide the defense off the bench in the middle.

It seems positive, but teams without much depth or more than one superstar (I wouldn’t classify either Jefferson or Redd as superstars) rarely have all the pieces fell into place. Things will not go perfectly. The Nets were this team late last year (no player headaches for the Bucks though) and they didn’t even make the playoffs in the east.

Chicago Bulls

Prediction: 35-47 do not make the playoffs

Depth Chart

PG	Kirk Hinrich	Derrick Rose	MVP: Kirk Hinrich Biggest Surprise: Thabo Sefolosha Biggest Letdown: Kirk Hinrich (Bulls fans will demand Rose no matter how well he plays) Key to success: a shooting guard and a center Grab Bag: Nocioni would be a perfect Laker so fans could legitimately hate him
SG	Larry Hughes	Thabo Sefolosha
SF	Luol Deng	Andres Nocioni
PF	Drew Gooden	Tyrus Thomas
C	Joakim Noah	Aaron Gray

Derrick Rose is not a number 1 draft pick in most drafts. I think he will be very good, and he was the right pick for the Bulls, though. Hinrich will start at PG and regain his form from two seasons ago if Ben Gordon is NOT resigned. Gordon is a cancer. He can score, but he isn’t a PG or a SG. ‘Tweeners like Gordon work in some systems, but the Bulls don’t have the interior defensive presence to make up for Gordon’s lack of size, or defensive ability. Hinrich is a solid 6’3" and matches up well with most shooting guards because he is willing to play defense. He will get to do that a lot this year because I can’t see Hinrich splitting time with Rose. Instead they will play on the floor together, while Larry Hughes sits and has time to think about his glory days on the Wizards. Thabo Sefolosha will continue to be productive in limited minutes and will eventually make Hughes expendable if he isn’t already.

Rose has a little bit of Dwayne Wade in him as he throws himself at top speed down the court, but he isn’t as big. Rose will be more of a project than people think. He isn’t really that great of a passer. Watching him, most of his assists are a credit to the scorer, and not that man who set him up. This isn’t to say he doesn’t distribute well, but he isn’t a Chris Paul or Jason Kidd type passer. He will average around 9ppg and 5apg this year with Hinrich, but Hinrich will be gone and the team will be Rose’s in the future.

Small forward is the deepest position on the squad. Luol Deng is a borderline star and the hardest worker on the team is Andres Nocioni. Tyrus Thomas can play the 3 a little bit, but his poor dribbling and midrange shooting will keep him at the 4 for now. Rounding out the position is Demetris Nichols, who has yet to prove anything.

The Bulls have a lot of trouble in the front court. Their best front court player is a small forward, Andres Nocioni. He will play a lot of minutes at the 4 despite what the depth charts say. Gooden is solid, but Joakim Noah at the 5? He isn’t strong, he isn’t smart, he can’t score…but he hustles. Hustling only gets you so far. Ask Jacob Richards. Never heard of him? Neither have I. Aaron Gray will get some starts because of his size.

The Bulls only chance is for small ball to work. They are fast and athletic and can’t shoot threes (except for Hinrich and Nocioni). They don’t seem to really have a choice. Gordon is going to be the biggest issue, he will clear the way for hard workers and allow the Bulls to overachieve. We’ll see what head coach Vinny Del Negro can get from them. I am betting more than he should.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Prediction: 49-33 3rd Seed Playoffs

Depth Chart

PG	Mo Williams	Daniel Gibson	MVP: LeBron James Biggest Surprise: J.J. Hickson Biggest Letdown: Ben Wallace (2 years in a row is bad) Key to success: LeBron James Grab Bag: LeBron James is, "kind of a big deal."
SG	Sasha Pavlovic	Tarence Kinsey
SF	LeBron James	Wally Szczerbiak
PF	Ben Wallace	J.J. Hickson
C	Zydrunas Ilgauskas	Anderson Varejao

The Cavs are lucky that they’ve signed Maurice Williams. Their backcourt was easily awful, now it is just bad. Mo’ Williams is definitely an improvement over Delonte West. This is true. He is a good scorer, and makes enough good passes that he can still be classified as a point guard, and because he is a good ball handler, he will help LeBron James with dribbling duties. His biggest duty though, will be hitting the big shot when James doesn’t have an opportunity. Williams is not afraid to take those shots as proven by Michael Redd deterring to him at the end of games while in Milwaukee. Sasha Pavolic and Daniel Gibson aren’t much more than shooters, and Tarence Kinsey is just alright. Wally Szczerbiak will spend some time at the 2, but will mostly play small forward. He needs to get more time on the floor with LeBron because he can really spread the floor, and he is a competitor just like James.

The front line is improved through the draft. JJ Hickson will be great for LeBron because he has great hands and is an opportunistic scorer. The Cavs may sign unheralded Darnell Jackson from Kansas, who could provide depth. Ben Wallace has one year left of starting, if that. Big Zydrunas Ilgauskas keeps plugging away. He is slow, but solid, and can still be a shoot over most centers at 7’3" and long arms. Ben Wallace will do most of the backing up at center while Anderson Varejao will meet the alley-op requirements of LeBron off of the bench.

LeBron James is in a class of his own. He is the most athletic player in the league, easy. For a 6’8" 240lbs guy to be the fastest, strongest, best ball handler and a high flyer on the floor, is just "redonkulous." There is no single player in the league that can guard him one on one. The only person that can begin to match-up is Tracy McGrady in those rare moments when he is healthy. And therein lies the problem. Teams can easily play a defense scheme that centers on James and it is the other players on the team that must step-up. This hasn’t happened in the playoffs (Note: for some reason, Detriot, who has been one of the best defensive teams in the league, hasn’t figured this out). LeBron James alone can take this team to the playoffs, but every game he is hurt, or doesn’t play to his averages, the Cavaliers will struggle. And once in the postseason, who will be the player that steps up when James is double-teamed? Cleveland is hoping it is Mo’ Williams.

Detroit Pistons

Prediction 50-32 2nd Seed Playoffs

Depth Chart

PG	Chauncey Billups	Rodney Stuckey	MVP: Richard Hamilton Biggest Surprise: Pistons will finally give up on Amir Johnson Biggest Letdown: Rasheed Wallace not trying Key to success: Rasheed Wallace trying Grab Bag: Rasheed Wallace’s game to game mentality IS.
SG	Richard Hamilton	Arron Afflalo
SF	Tayshaun Prince	Walter Hermann
PF	Rasheed Wallace	Jason Maxiell
C	Antonio McDyess	Kwame Brown

The "Old Guard." The Pistons have been good enough to tease everyone about winning another Championship since 2004. Change out Ben Wallace with Antonio McDyess and these are the same starters from their last championship. But the 2004 team was much better. They had Ben Wallace when he was a stud. Mehmet Okur came off the bench, so did Corliss Williamson. That is a lot better than the current team. Rodney Stuckey can play, and will be a starter at some point, but the rest of the bench are straight roll players and will never be anything more. Kwame Brown is terrible. Amir Johnson hasn’t developed, even though he still has a couple more years to prove something. Maxiell is a beast, but a 6’6" power forward has to be. The fact is, three of the four starters are showing their age. Chauncey Billups is still durable, but played four less minutes in 07-08 than the previous year. His production was still fine, but in the playoffs he only averaged 32 minutes. An all-star needs to be playing 36-40 mins. in the postseason. He was also injured for a few games. Luckily, Stuckey didn’t miss a beat and reenergized the Starters who had gotten used to the grind it out pace. It is hard to get easy buckets this playing that way, especially against good teams in the playoffs, and Stuckey proved that pushing the ball and can get those easy buckets.

Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess are both over the hill. The fact is; Wallace isn’t assertive, and it hurts the Pistons in the playoffs. He is so loose in the regular season he can’t just hit a switch and turn it on in the postseason anymore. McDyess has had a good post injury career, and could probably score more if more plays were called for him. He is just solid at the 4, but he is playing the 5 and he struggles a little bit.

Rip Hamilton is surprisingly not young. He will be 31 in February. With the way he plays, running around screens all night, it will be hard to translate once his body goes (although Reggie Miller was able to keep his playing style alive until his last year). Tayshaun Prince is their most tradable piece because he can score pretty well and is one of the best all around defenders in the league. His arms are so long, and he, at 6’9" is very agile and can guard most PGs for stretches of the game.

I think Detroit will have another successful season, but will hit injuries. They will be the second best Eastern Conference team during the regular season, but in the post season they will struggle to get past the first round. The energy is not there.