Pop sits Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili in the Jazz game.

Pop is the smartest coach in the league and I had to ask myself why? OK so they need rest.

But do they all need rest at the same time? NO.

Why? Why sit all three at once? To loose the game.

Pop is strategically deciding who he wants to play in the first round. So, by losing the game aganst the Jazz he advance the Jazz cause at the expense of us. I take that to mean that he doesn't want to play the Suns.

Thoughts?

Seriously, how good are these suns?

I have spent the last two weeks eating my words, and watch these suns compete on a level that I thought was not possible. I thought we had nothing but role players, and possibly some almost all-stars.

And now..

Where did Dudley find his game? Hitting open 3 like their 8 footers, and not settling for the three, constantly taking the ball to the rim. On defense, he is blocking shots, stealing the ball, using his size and position to stop penetration.

Where is the wimp guy Frye that sat at the 3 point line waiting for a Steve Nash assist? What a happened to all that illegal (and stupid) pushing he used to do with his hands? Frye now uses his body for position in the low post to get rebounds and block shots.

Seriously, the Suns defense is stifling at times. They are shutting teams down for minutes at a time. Steve Nash had a block this year! OMG. And, AND they come out of the half more focused than when they went in.

Pondering all this new found Suns for a die-hard Suns fan is fun. Remember how teams use to beat us with their size and strength? Too small to win in the playoffs, we heard that year after year.. We are soft!

Well. No more. We are as big as anyone in the middle. The big question mark has been the big plays.

Lopez Position: Center Height: 7-0 Weight: 255 lbs.

Frye Position: Forward-Center Height: 6-11 Weight: 248 lbs.

Gortat Position: Center-Forward Height: 6-11 Weight: 240 lbs.

I have concluded that since the all-star break, we have been winning as a team because we are not soft. (Can we keep it up, we will see.) Steve and Hill are known quantities, but the emergence of Frye and Dudley, our overall defensive play is why we are mostly winning. Also, Shannon Brown has brought a new dimension which was missing since Barbosa left.

I know this sounds crazy, but this team is beginning to remind me of how Boston plays - stifling defense at times, good mid-range game, good/great rebounding, true grit.

So.. I know unrealistic, but mmm... let's compare some stats today suns and the champion Celtics..

Dudley Position: Forward Height: 6-7 Weight: 225 lbs.

Pierce Position: Forward Height: 6-6 Weight: 230 lbs.

...

Garnett Position: Forward Height: 6-11 Weight: 220 lbs.

Frye Position: Forward-Center Height: 6-11 Weight: 248 lbs.

...

Gortat Position: Center Height: 6-11 Weight: 240 lbs.

Perkins Position: Center Height: 6-10 Weight: 280 lbs.

Certainly, such a comparison is not very valid. But the point is that if these three play at the new level they seem to have found on a consistent basis, like from here to end of the season, we could go deep into the playoffs. None of us are thinking we are anywhere close to those Celts, but I think we are far away form the SSOL days. And, AND I think (hope, pray) this is the new Suns, tough, gritting, smart, defense oriented, Big, and never done with a game until the buzzer rings.

At least for the last 10 games, the Suns are looking great. Maybe Gentry has found a some gems in the rough.

Let's hope this play continues on the road.

Go Suns (keep proving me wrong)

WillIam Powell over at Examiner doesn't think much of the Suns:

"They have no dominating big man in the post or on the defensive end, they have three aging starters, a bad defensive schema, and rely heavily on jump shooting to win."

"These problems add up to the Suns inability to play consistently, often manifesting in their insistence on playing down to the competition."

http://www.examiner.com/phoenix-suns-in-phoenix/rs-ss-suns-playing-down-to-the-competition

I wish writers took the time to think for themselves. He sees inconsistency and jumps to the conclusion that it is a reliance on jump shooting and aging stars. Seriously, if the Celtics lost KG, and two major role players at the beginning of the season, and then traded Ray Allen 3 months into the season, how consistent would they be? Answer, not very.

For the 1st time since the season began, I think the Suns are a 600 ball club.. Gortat is filling the power role nicely, and Lopez is starting to play better.  I think we now longer need gang rebounding, just power rebounding.

Go Suns

I saw each of these games from end to end.  And I want to make a narrow point, the Suns are now the BIG team.  I have been saying this since the Gortat trade.

In the Memphis game, we tried to run with them, especially in the fourth quarter.  Suns had 121 shot attempts,  Charlotte  96 not counting the free throws.  The game was fast, non-physical and speeded-up in the fourth.  We had open looks, but could not finish it out and the Suns scored 107, and lost by 7. ( I would be interested how the paint scoring looked but could not find that stat.)

In the Boston game,  Suns had 91 attempts and Boston 97. The game was slow, physical and slowed in the fourth.  We pounded the rock into the paint and won 88 to 71. We played a big line up, against their big line up and WON.

That I think is our new team, BIG:  Slow the game down,  play half court, keep the number of possession under 100, play inside out,  have  Steve break down the defense in the middle, find the big and let them finish. In the Boston game that worked so well, that Gortat and Lopez saw wide open 10 footers because the Boston defense started collapsing to protect the rim.

We are not going to be the pretty team which gets manhandled in the middle. We are the playoff team which pounds the rock into the middle, overwhelms you physically and wins at the rim.  Stop thinking 7 seconds or less, spend a lot less energy on getting down the court quick, spend the energy on slowing the opponent.  

WE are the BIG team. Let's act like it and play like it.

It may be that his knee is needs work. But I betting his head needs more,

And I bet FO and Gentry want to see if anyone else on the team can be the off guard. Say Dudz..

Also, I wonder if FO is worried about his storied past and reputation. Cuz if I were them, I would.

Cannot see Steve playing along side a ball hog. OR Grant and him putting up with $ht in the locker room. If VC acts like this he will be injured for quiet awhile.

I would love to see him get on the same mental plane as Grant, and learn to love the game more that his self.

Go SUns

Kodos to management for seeing Turk as not fitting in and building from the middle.

A lot of fans look at Earl Clark and wonder why he is not getting minutes. Big powerful athletic guy, not getting any play time, when we disparately need size in the paint.

I said that Clark does not play because he cannot understand the game, or at least our game plan. For you Clark supports out there,  I think Gentry is supporting my position and letting us know:

" he’s earned the minutes with his strong and energetic play in practice lately."

Really.

Let's put that in reverse, He has not earned the minutes with his weak and lackluster play in practice, earlier.

There it is. It is obviuos that Clark cannot get on the floow becuase he is bad in practice. The logic seems easy. the assumtions are that:

1. Gentry is a good coach, knows talent and effort

2. Suns need size

3. Earl Clark has size

The variable here is Earl Clark's play. The only thing that keeps him off the floor is his play. (Well I guess it could be that he is a jerk, but if his play was good, he would still be on the floor.)

Anyway, I am glad he look like he is getting it. I would like to see him succeed.

Response to "Phoenix Suns Breakdown"

Please, while the analysis fun to read, it is not "fair" in any respect to the way pro basketball is scheduled and played.

Any single night any team in the NBA can beat another team.

Just look at the number of possessions possible per game.  It is somewhere between 180 and 210, to make the math easy, lets say it is 200. So, you get 100 possessions and score overall at a 50% clip, then you score 100 points. If you lose by 10 points, that would be 5 possessions or less. READY.. drum roll  ... 5/200, that is a margin of difference  in a game is 2.5 percent. Right now in the NBA the only Miami and LA Lakers are 10+ over their opponents on average, the rest of the league is below 2.5%

This is why health and the schedule impacts teams so heavily If a team plays a lot of back to back games, on the second night your team falls of by 2.5%, then you lose. If you star player is playing off by 10% with a groin injury and the "off" is 2.5% overall for the team, you loose by 10 points. Flu, ankle sprain, bad back, Heavy travel, 4 games 7 nights, team travel is too grueling.. ( One more thing, any officiating bias can and does change the outcome of the game, when the officiating crew makes  bad calls, or allows aggressiveness on one side of the floor and not the other,  or favors of one team over the other, then it can decide a game.)

My point is that at the pro level, the margin of a win is so small that on any single night, any team in the NBA can beat another team. PERIOD.

If you want to analyze a team’s strength and weakness you need a sample which contains enough games to have any validity at all. To slice out even one game and hope to extrapolate into a valid analysis, you would need to find an "average game", and of course even then it would be a wild ass projection.

PS. I do absolutely love the effort and I think the writing is well done, and to my chagrin, I agree with some of it. But I cannot let the content  slide.

First, I must say I only watch a few minutes of preaseason and did not get to any games. So, I am left with box scores.

The Suns look horrible in pre-season. PERIOD.

                           FG%     3p%     FT%    
Pre-season    .427     .246     .696    
09-10                .492    .412     .770

Opponent:
                           FG%     3p%     FT%
pre-season     .470     .341     .773    
09-10                .452     .355     .760

In every statistical category, the team played worse than last year. Short worse from the field, from the line, from the 3 point arc. Add that defensively, the team played worse than last year, the opponents shot better from the field, from the line, from the 3 point arc.

Well it is preason. I thought that maybe Steve is not playing as well, after all this is Steve Nash's team.

Steve averaged (all numbers are appx) 33 minutes per game last year with 11 assist and 16 points. So I took his average preseason numbers, and calculated his performance for 33 minutes. (Drumm.. role...)

For 33 minutes, Steve was 10 assist and 13 points vs. last year 11 and 16. Not much to see there, Steve played his normal self. So if we up his minutes to 32-32, his stats will look the same.

Why is the rest of the team DOWN? Is the loss of Amare going to be fatal? If we see that same team for the rest of the season, i have the sinking feeling we will be crying a lot.

I know, I know this is pre-season and well who cares..

Hello,  Knick fans!

30 year Suns fan, oops that is now 40 years! (Damn getting old sux, but I digress)

Here is an unsophisticated Suns fan opinion of Amare.

History:

I watch Amare since I he joined the Suns, and what happened to his game under Nash and D'antoni.

He was all of 19 in his first year with the Suns, turned 20 just before his first game. He had overcome a terrible upbringing to join the NBA. ( and still has family issues, where just recently his mother was arrested again). I remember hearing his life story and  thinking during the draft, this guy has what it takes to be great in the NBA.

Young with unparalleled athleticism, I remember with a basketball AHhhh that his ability to jump was unbelievable; in preseason seeing his hand high with the ball  over the top of the backboard on its way to a dunk. It was an OMG moment. Unfortunately, he can no longer jump that high, But, as I am sure you have seen, he can still dunk on anyone.

When he played with Marbury and coach Frank Johnson,  In his rookie year 2003 when he was Rookie of the Year, they were bad, total bad chemistry and bad coaching. Statistically, ok for everyone, but could not win games, which I blame Marbury on court decision making. And then came Steve OMG Nash, and seven-seconds-or-less...

At this point, the Suns stormed the NBA, basketball was fun to watch, and Steve Nash was a smaller version of Magic Johnson, and point guards started ruling the game. And AMARE became what he is today, 6 '10'' 250 pound dunking machine, which no big in the league could handle.

Defense:

Here is where I differ with all mainstream view of Amrea, Amare plays defense, and plays it well. He does not play as well as his offense, but his offense is GREAT, while his D is OK.

So, this view that he doesn't is just plain wrong. (BTW: this is the view of the entire Suns team, it simply is not true.) Why do people think this,

1. When you play on the best offensive team in the league, then defense is almost never going to look as good.

2. Team defense is the only way to stop great players, therefore Amare looks bad when other team members miss there assignments. And he takes the blame. I have seen this over and over during games.

3. There is sacrifice for position when you play the 7sol offense (There are no titles without D'antoni fixing this problem.)

While Amare defense is OK, he knows it can be better. And he is putting time into it. (So if, DAntoni doesn't mend his ways, I expect you all to be cursing this lack of D by the end of next year.)

Offense:

Having read here, and in the papers, your team has not had a guy like this in years. You will be HAPPY!

Offense is Amare's strength.  And he is GREAT!.

But few give him the credit he deserves, nor understand the sacrifice he makes on a team with Steve OMG Nash. Steve Nash distributes the ball. He gets everyone shots in positions they can score. It is hard to believe when you do not watch him night in and night out, but Steve is simply incredible. Steve Nash teams have lead the league in offense almost every year since he became a starter.

With Steve distributing the ball, Amare gets fewer touches. If the offense goes thru Amare, then hecould have 40  point nights often, and  lead the league in points. Also,  he plays in the unbelievably tough west conference where we have few dog teams to smoke. And Amare is the focus of opposing teams D every night. Think on that when you look at the stats.

Another criticism on Amare is that he cannot create, and that he needs a point guard to get him the ball. OR that he will not be great without Nash. This perception is valid, but it is by know means certain or accurate. This is a team sport, bigs do not bring the ball up court, therefore all bigs get the ball thrown to them. PERIOD. The fact that Steve OMG Nash is the best passer and makes everyone around him look good, does not automatically make Amare worse without him.

In NY, he will have a chance to shine, to prove he can play without Nash, that it can be his team, that he can lead a team nigh-in night-out, that his defense is great, that he is the best big man in the league. I think he can do it.

Amare is a disciplined athlete,  a good defended, a GREAT offensive player. He is one of the top three power forwards in the league. His game is pure fun to watch, poster-izing defenders all the time. Great outside shot. Blocks shots. Rebounds. Runs the floor well.

I will miss him.

You will love him.

The Lakers are about to experience what the Spurs found out in the last round.

1. The Suns are a good gritty team
2. A good 10 man team can beat a great 3 man team
3. The Suns bench can beat you

How much did the layoff and the 3 game delay from game one to game two helped the Lakers?

I think it was a huge boon to the Lakers big 3. The series is now every other night and last night it looked like the Lakers were flat footed. If they do that again in game 5, they will likely loose.

Does the 2-3 zone kill the triangle offense?

Yes, it does. There are big holes in the zone, but the triangle offense is of no use against the 2-3 zone. So, the Lakers are having to learn a new offensive set in the WCF. Ha!

The Suns now have a formula for beating LA, and they need to bring the true grit to LA for game 5!

Go Suns!

The Lakers are not dominating us. .

What is happening is that the Lakers are shooting the lights out. And their role players are shooting the Lights out.

Artest  6-9 3-6 18

Brown 2-4 1-1 8

Farmer 4-5 3-3 11

An unacceptable 36 points on 67% shooting and 70% from 3 point range.

If you reduce those points by half, subtract 18 from the total score,then it is 106 and not 124. We win game two. I am not saying shut them down, just hold them to less than 50%. These role players are the difference in the Suns competing.

Also, the Suns were in the game until in the fourth quarter 5 turnovers in 6 possessions. The Lakers defense helped that but I hold the Suns to blame, I thought they were all mental mistakes. The Suns bench played bad except Dudley. Nash and Stat played an average game. (Don't yell Stat has looked like that alot in the playoffs, playing 40+ minutes, guarding the bigs, getting double teamed or hammered every play, we won games with him playing like that)

Think on this, the Lakers stars played great, the Laker role players shoot 70%, and the Suns played better than average , the bench stunk it up, and yet we were in it until the the 5 turnovers in 6 possessions in the 4th quarter.

The Suns are playing average to good as a team, and the Lakers are playing like world champs, but the Suns are in the game until the turnovers in the 4th.

I do not know where the mental steal went with these Suns where they cannot execute in the fourth. Some credit must go to the Lakers, but I think it is the Suns mental break down.

So, Suns fans here is some hope.

The Suns do not have to stop the Laker all-stars to win. The Suns just need to stop the role players, and play their average game and they can win this series.

I'll bet we are all tired of waiting.  I know I am.

I have had enough listening and reading and watching everyone talk about these Suns like they are the 06 D'antoni Suns.

These Suns are

• Mental steel
• All defensive hustle all 48 minutes
• Deepest Suns team ever
  
• Best 3 point team in the league
  
• Number one offense in the league
  
• Highest scoring big man in the game,
  
• Highest scoring big man left in the playoffs
• Best record in the west since the All start break
  
• Sweeping the "hottest playoff team", the Spurs
• Better total rebounding than the Lakers In the playoffs
• Better defense than the Lakers in the playoffs

If you listen, watch and read, the national media all act like these Suns got lucky, that these are the pasty D'Antoni Suns. They talk like the Lakers wining is a forgone conclusion. The Lakers stumbled into the playoffs, beat had a baby OKC team, and a broken-down-fixer-up team, Jazz.. Time for the Lakers to play a true grit playoff team.

If the Suns 10 man TEAM bring the grit and the game performance they had in the Spurs series, the Lakers will need a PERFECT game to win even one.

Let the games begin!

GO SUNS!

GO SUNS!

GO SUNS!

By Homer the Grey hound.

How do the remaining 4 teams compare to some of the great NBA champions from the 3 point era?

Below, I have listed a few teams I picked at random from the top 10 in SRS ( Simple Rating System) since 1979-80.

The rating system despite its name is anything but simple. It basicaly takes 30+ stats over the season, applies some mathematical algorithms and derives a single number as a rating.  It is a stat which can be used as an overall number for a team.  ( ha ha ha, yes,  not simple. Here is the link: http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/glossary.html#srs  good luck)

The Bull of 95-96 standout as the greatest team because they wer 1st in both offensive and defense that season. You will see that those Bulls have the highest Simple Rating System (SRS) of 11.8. Every other team is below the 11.8 rating. These top 10 teams all had great regular season years dominating all opponents.

One thing does standout about the top ten, they all lead in either offense or defense or both in the regular seasons, and they were 1st on the SRS. Eight of those top 10 SRS teams have titles.

The only remaining 2010 playoff team to lead the league in defense or offense is the Suns. And the Magic are 1st in SRS which is likely the best indicator of proabable success.

However, these rating is soly based on the regular season, and since it is a compiled stat, then teams must dominiate night in and night out to get a high rating. Slumps of any type will drop the rating.

For the Suns and Celtics, two big factors which I think are not captured in these stats. Celtics are finaly healthy. And the Suns are a young team trying something never seen in the playoffs, playing a 10 deep bench. Yes, young team. They added very significant personell this year Dudley, Richardson and Fry, plus bringing along Amundson, and Dragic. Basketball chemistry mix is not an easy accomplishment and to make gel and play at a high level is even more difficult.

One more thing to note, notice that of the 4 teams left they are 3,4,and 5 in defense this year, with the Suns at 23rd. But in the playoffs the Suns defense (based on points allowed) would be more like 6th out of the 16 teams. (to date)  

So, take a look below at some great teams of the past and the four conference teams playing in 2010.

Bulls 1995-96 NBA Champions (Uno numero)

SRS: 11.80 (1st of 29) ▪ Pace Factor: 91.1 (20th of 29)
Offensive Rating: 115.2 (1st of 29) ▪ Defensive Rating: 101.8 (1st of 29)

Bulls 1996-97 NBA Champions

SRS: 10.70 (1st of 29) ▪ Pace Factor: 90.0 (18th of 29)
Offensive Rating: 114.4 (1st of 29) ▪ Defensive Rating: 102.4 (4th of 29)

Bulls 1991-92 NBA Champions

SRS: 10.07 (1st of 27) ▪ Pace Factor: 94.4 (22nd of 27)
Offensive Rating: 115.5 (1st of 27) ▪ Defensive Rating: 104.5 (4th of 27)

Boston 1985-86 NBA Champions

SRS: 9.06 (1st of 23) ▪ Pace Factor: 101.2 (16th of 23)
Offensive Rating: 111.8 (3rd of 23) ▪ Defensive Rating: 102.6 (1st of 23)

Boston 2007-08 NBA Champions

SRS: 9.31 (1st of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 90.9 (19th of 30)
Offensive Rating: 110.2 (10th of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 98.9 (1st of 30)

2010 Conference teams

SUNS

SRS: 4.68 (6th of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 95.3 (4th of 30)
Offensive Rating: 115.3 (1st of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 110.2 (23rd of 30)

Lakers

SRS: 4.78 (5th of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 92.8 (14th of 30)
Offensive Rating: 108.8 (11th of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 103.7 (4th of 30)

Orlando

SRS: 7.12 (1st of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 92.0 (18th of 30)
Offensive Rating: 111.4 (4th of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 103.3 (3rd of 30)

Boston

SRS: 3.37 (10th of 30) ▪ Pace Factor: 91.6 (22nd of 30)
Offensive Rating: 107.7 (15th of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 103.8 (5th of 30)

What stats are people using, the regular season? Really?

Common, give me a break.  This is the PLAYOFFS not the regular season.  

I went over to www.basketball-reference.com which have some nice stats. Thanks!

Both teams have played 10 games so I do not have to compensate for number of games.  I picked the following stats because they are all team stats. And this is very important when talking about match ups. So far, I keep seeing the top 5 or 6 against our top 5 or 6. For me, this is NOT a valid comparison of the Suns. The Suns are 10 deep! It is just wishful homer thinking to ignore all the minutes played by the Suns second string.

These are the averages for both teams over the last 10 playoff games.  And of course, you could argue that there opponents were different and some were better or worse, but this is 10 games worth for an statistics. If these teams averaged 100 possessions  per game, then these averages are for 1000 possessions. That is a pretty good sample.

Which team has given up the fewest points per game to the opponents in the playoffs?  

Lakers:  97.1       Suns:  95.9           Suns better than Lakers +1.2

Which team has scored the most points per game?

Lakers:  101.0     Suns:  105.8        Suns better than Lakers +4.8

What was the opponent’s field goal percentage per game?

Lakers:  .412       Suns:  .446           Lakers better by +.034  3.4 points on 100 possessions

What was the teams field goal percentage per game?

Lakers : .461       Suns:  .476           Suns better by  +.015   1.5  points on 100 possessions

Ok. I am sliding into the unknown by adding these differences up but WTH.

Lakers: +3.4

Suns: +1.5, +4.8, +1.2 = 7.5

Suns win the averages by 4.1 I read this to mean that Suns offense + defense is better than Lakers offense + defense.

So where do the Lakers win this series?   Rebounding? This stat is one that  the Lakers should dominate. But it is driven by other factors like how many boards are there in a game.  Of course all NBA games have variances due to higher shooting percentage, or fewer possessions, and also (my pet peeve ) standing there tipping the ball in 4 times and getting 4 offensive boards, (ugh).  

Thanks again to basketball-reference.com they have some nice percentage stats on rebounds. Where they try to guess what is available to be rebounded.

DRB%  : Defensive Rebound Percentage (available since the 1970-71 season in the NBA); the formula is 100 * (DRB  * (Tm  MP  / 5)) / (MP * (Tm  DRB  + Opp  ORB)). Defensive rebound percentage is an estimate of the percentage of available defensive rebounds a team grabbed.

OBR%: Offensive Rebound Percentage (available since the 1970-71 season in the NBA); the formula is 100 * (ORB  * (Tm  MP  / 5)) / (MP * (Tm  ORB  + Opp  DRB)). Offensive rebound percentage is an estimate of the percentage of available offensive rebounds a team grabbed.

OBR%: Lakers   .291         Suns  .267            Lakers better by .024          2.4 points on 100 possessions

DRB%: Lakers    .717        Suns  .757           Suns better by .04               4 points on 100 possessions

WOW. There is an eye opener, Suns win the total rebounding battle.

WOW. Damn!

Let’s look at a stat which captures the 3 point differences on overall shooting percentages.

Effective Field Goal Percentage; the formula is (FG  + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA. This statistic adjusts for the fact that a 3-point field goal is worth one more point than a 2-point field goal. For example, suppose Player A goes 4 for 10 with 2 threes, while Player B goes 5 for 10 with 0 threes. Each player would have 10 points from field goals, and thus would have the same effective field goal percentage (50%).

EFG%:  Lakers  .504          Suns  .540  Suns better by .036       3.6 points on 100 possessions

I bet you could guess the Suns win this stat, but since the Suns depend on their 3 point shooting, I included it to see how big a difference the overall three might make in the games.  Overall shooting percentage is really close at just over 50% for both teams.

Hang on to your hat, and get your math brain stoked up! Last stat.

W Pyth: Pythagorean Wins; the formula is G * (Tm  PTS14  / (Tm  PTS14  + Opp  PTS14)). The formula was obtained by fitting a logistic regression model with log(Tm  PTS  / Opp PTS) as the explanatory variable. Using this formula for all BAA, NBA, and ABA seasons, the root mean-square error (rmse) is 3.14 wins. Using an exponent of 16.5 (a common choice), the rmse is 3.48 wins.

OK, I admit I have a vague idea of what this means, but let’s make it easy, this is the number of games it projects to win for W Pyth and to lose for L Pyth.  (For you math wizards, if you could help, I’m happy to hear it.):

W Pyth:  Lakers 6.3          Suns 8.0

L Pyth:   Lakers 3.7          Suns  2.0

This stat shows that the Suns dominate there opponents winning 8 games vs 2, for .800 ball; for the Lakers they still winning (duh) but .630 pace. So, in seven games the Suns  should win 5.6 and the Lakers 4.41. Both good enough to win a seven game series. But the Suns have a better chance to win it in 6 games while the Lakers will need all 7.

OK. I know I am a homer, but if these are PLAYOFF stats and are TEAM stats.  The SUNS 10 man team can beat the Laker's 6 man team. IF the Lakers are going to win, they will have to play better than they have in the playoffs to date.

Suns team offense + defense is better than Lakers team offense + defense.

Seriously, the Suns have the better TEAM.

GO SUNS!

Forget that!

Spurs ran a stifling defense, and the Lakers just haven't got the same discipline.

POP pointed out that his team played good defense, just couldn't do it for 48 minutes. Lakers will play even less defense over 48 minutes.

I almost feel sorry for the Lakers, they think they can win it all, the pundits think they can win it all.  They believe what they hear.  There playing a weak Jazz team and think there good.

They are about to meet an unstoppable force.  Suns 10 man team against there Lakers 7.

I keep hearing from the pundits that the Lakers are too big and long. Well, who cares. Frye is long. Amare is big. I find the statement meaningless. Yet, they must mean something. After all if “big and long” have meaning it should be there in the stats.

Below are the playoff stats for the Lakers and the Suns front line by games

Unfortunately, there it is staring me in the face. The gap.  The Lakers’s bigs are getting 38, 31 rebounds and 6 assist points per game. The Suns are getting 33 points, 18 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game.The gap is all in favor of the Lakers. Bynum at 285 has 40 pounds to 60 pounds on our bigs.They have two 7 footers to our none.

(OK. We have Lopez, and that would make a difference but does anyone believe a player can come back off injury and a two month layoff and play at a playoff level. A bit of a stretch. If we can make it stretch to 7 and Lopez plays in every game, perhaps in game 6-7, he could be in playoff shape.)

Teams which win in the paint usually win playoff games. So these points and rebounds in the paint are very convincing for why the Lakers Bigs are “big and long”. (VS Frye which are mostly threes)

The Lakers have more minutes in these stats, but they likely will in our series too. But..

BUT..

We present a lot of problems for them has well. Speed, shooting from the three, depth.  Just ask the Spurs!

Where is the great D by either team?

People are shooting as high as 71% from the field. Five players on the Spurs and 4 on the Suns shot over 50% last game.

Ginobili and Stat had a bad games. For Ginobili, you could say it was Grant Hill defense. And for Stat you could say it was Duncan's defense. But I suspect that Ginobili is playing too many minutes because his game is dependent on the amazing hustle. Stat's shot was off because he was missing a lot of open jumpers he normally knocks down.

I said in a previous post that the role players for the Spurs need to step up or the Spurs will lose. This has not changed. What I should have added is that the BIG THREE Spurs and the big three Suns need to play even, if the Suns have one off player off, and the Spurs do not then the game goes to the Spurs.

One other thing to note the Suns are playing 9 guys and the Spurs are playing 7.  This difference allows the Suns to push the ball longer and with greater efficiency. The advantage cannot be negated by the Spurs in a 48 minute game. Steve Nash is fresh when he comes back in in the 4h quarter; Another advantage cannot be negated by the Spurs.

Here are some the big three statistics. I would say they all played up to their abilities.

Name   time   shots    points  Other

Ginobilli    38:20    9-20    27    assists 5 rebounds 5
Parker    35:42    11-21    26    assists 3
Duncan    37:10    8-15    20  rebounds 11

Nash    36:49    13-19    33    assists 10
Stat    39:41    9-17    23  rebounds 13
Richardson    35:42    10-16    27 rebounds 6

Can they all do it again? Who is more likely to have an off game?

IMHO:

Nash's points go down and assists go up,

J Rich shooting drops to 50%

Stat has more points, same rebounds

Ginobill plays the same, maybe 10-20.

Parker shooting drops, assits go up

Duncan plays the same with no drop off.

The Spurs are yesterday champion  if a role players cannot play better.

The Spurs received all sorts of benefits from those referees on the floor, Ginobilli, Duncan, and Parker all had great games and they still lost. The big three played as well as they possibly can. They clocked 38, 37, and 36 respectively. Are they going to play them the all 48 minutes, no way.  Ginobilli maybe can shoot better, parker can play another 3 minutes, and Duncan can shoot free throws better. That's it.

If the role players do not play better, this will be a sort series.

For pop to play small ball against the Phoenix Suns is an act of desperation. How he thinks he’s going to get his role players to play better than our role players I have no idea.

At this point for the Suns to lose, they have to play worse because the Spurs have no chance of beating us when we play well.

These are playoff stats I got from NBA.com. They are the 6 game playoff statistics for the Spurs/Dallas and Suns/Blazer series.  The point differential stat is huge and is due to the Sun blowing out the Blazers. I lot of that was the great shooting from the floor for the suns in the blowout games.

Assist per game, Rebounds per game, block per game and Steals per game reflect the team aspect of the games in each series, and the differential reflect who won those little battles. The RPB, BPG, and SPG are the hustle stats.

The column with the Sun +/- are the totals of the differentials and that represents the +/- of extra touches one team will have over the other due to hustle. Turns out the Spurs margin against Dallas was so thin over the six games.

Two conclusion stand out:

1. The Spurs won their series on true grit, close games where they executed in the clutch or playing better when it mattered..
2. The Suns won their series with dominate offense, driven by hustle play.

Two predictions:

1. If the Suns want to win this series, they must keep the hustle plays up. If they get 9.5 extra touches in these games and convert on half, they win games by 10+ points.
2. If they want to win close games, they better get some true grit and execute flawlessly in the clutch or the Spurs will win.

You could argue that the Blazers hustle stats are not good due to the team health problems. But I would als argue it was the deep Phoenix bench.  The Spurs are playiing 7 deep and there starter are getting a lot of minutes.  Constant hustle can beat them.

GO SUNS!

Tonight's the night we're gonna make it happen
Tonight we'll put all other things aside

I'm so excited and I just can't hide it
I'm about to lose control and I think I like it

                     Pointer Sisters and a Homer

I’d like to do a song of great social and political import.

                                                                            Janis Joplin

The following is sung to the beat in her song Mercedes Benz.

Oh Sun's won't you rout the San Antonio Spurs
I'm counting on you Suns, please don't let me down.
Prove that you love me and win the next round.
Oh Sun's won't you beat-down San Antonio Spurs

Oh Suns won't you win me the West this year.
Planet Orange is desperate, the Conference is near
I have waited for decades, mostly in tears
So oh Suns won't you win me the West this year

Oh Suns won't you win me that Title so dear
My friends are all Bull fans, I must make amends.
Steadfast all my lifetime, no help from the Stern.
So Oh Suns won't you win me the NBA this year

It was 1970 when Janis Joplin died.  She sang song called Mercedes Benz, it was a statement about materialism in her time. (RIP Some of us still miss you.)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mercedes_Benz_%28song%29

Go Suns!

I have been feeling nostalgic lately. Most people know the feeling at some point, when that one person in your life seem to get away. You get in this FUNK and pine away.

Well, where would the Suns be if they had not gone 10-15 in the middle of the season.

Let's look at some numbers:

Dec 1 thru Jan 18

Total games:    25
Total Losses:    15
Total Wins:        10
Loss >500:        2
Wins >500:        6
Loss >500:        12

Winning percentage against teams above 500: .333  (6/18)

Jan 19 thru March 31

Total games:    32
Total Losses:    8
Total Wins:        24
Loss <500:        2
Wins >500:        16
Loss >500:        6

Winning percentage against teams above 500: .727 (16/22)

So instead of 10-15, they would have had 13 wins vs the above 500 teams. An additional 7 games in the win and less 7 in the loss column, that would mean they would have been 13W and 5L on the plus 500 teams. They would have gone 17 an 8. And right now instead of being, 48 and 26, they would be 55 and 19.  That's right: 55-19!

Ah, what might have been.

And let me see if I can get out of MY FUNK:

The Suns even in the worst of their "funk" when they were 10-15. They beat these teams:

Dec     Fri 11     vs Orlando              W 106-103
Dec     Tue 15     vs San Antonio          W 116-104
Dec     Mon 28     vs LA Lakers          W 118-103
Dec     Wed 30     vs Boston              W 116-98
Jan     Wed 06     vs Houston              W 118-110
Jan     Mon 11     vs Milwaukee          W 105-101

And when the Suns got out of their "funk", they beat these teams:

Jan     Thu 28     vs Dallas            W 112-106
Jan     Sun 31     @ Houston            W 115-111
Feb     Mon 01     @ New Orleans        W 109-100
Feb     Wed 03     @ Denver            W 109-97
Feb     Tue 16     @ Memphis            W 109-95
Feb     Fri 19     vs Atlanta            W 88-80
Feb     Tue 23     @ Oklahoma City    W 104-102
Mar     Mon 01     vs Denver            W 101-85
Mar     Fri 19     vs Utah            W 110-100
Mar     Sun 21     vs Portland        W 93-87

Noticed that the big difference between the Sun's "funk" and "non-funk" are the road wins against good teams. And most of you will note that Robin Lopez became the starting center and STAT put on his superman cloak around Jan 18th.

To win in the playoffs you have to win on the road, and often in a series more than once. We need everyone healthy. Robin Lopez get well soon. Gentry rest NASH!

I'm pumped up. Even when we were in the FUNK, we beat Lakers, Spurs and Boston. I tell you what, if I where a Dallas or the Lakers fan or coach, I would be looking to AVOID the

55-19 Suns.

Bring on the Playoffs!

Go Suns!

Leandro Barbosa will return in the next few weeks.

Alvin Gentry needs to find him some time on the floor. But when? and with whom?

I like the defensive minded Suns as they are right now. I think Gentry should not bring him back in any major role because Barbosa does not play anything that resembles Defense, so his role should be very limited too times when the Suns need a bucket or two.

Here is my rational:

1)  Nash is already a big liability on the Defense of end of the floor, so Barbosa cannot be on the floor at the same time. ( Otherwise, the Suns defense is too porous.)

2)  Barbosa cannot handle the point so he cannot really backup Nash. ( LB assists this year 1.7, career 2.3  )

3)  Barbosa is limited to playing off guard when

        a) Opponents 2 guard is offensively weak.

        b) When Goran Dragic is on the floor and can play the opponents offensive guard.

I love Barbosa's speed and length, but he now needs to learn how to use it playing defense. Defense requires not just athletic talent which Barbosa has in plenty, but basketball IQ. For example,  he stands too far back from his opponent (especially because of his speed he should be up in their face all the time), forgets to block out, and has no focus rebounding. (I could go on, but you get my point.)

What do you think?

Can we go back to the run and guns Suns?

Can Barbosa play Defense?

Will Mr. Gentry play Barbosa 10+ minutes a game?

This was a good one for the Suns. They really needed it too.

It's hard to believe I'm going to say this but the Suns defense won the game. They out spurred the Spurs, it looks like were bigger at every position except point guard. We were not out-muscled, out-hustled, or out-thugged. We gave as good as we got.

There were a lot of pluses in this game like plus eight on rebounds, plus three on block shots, plus 10 on assists and plus seven on the final score. I still think as Nash goes so go the Suns. Nash had a good game - shot the ball well, pass the ball well, and even had five rebounds.

I did see something in this game that I have not seen before. (I must admit that I haven't seen a lot of games recently.) I saw the guards a go for rebounds. Nash had five, Bell had five,  Barbosa had two. I think we'll see a lot of that crashing the boards. For the Suns to win, they have to crash the boards especially when Stoudemire and Shaq block shots.

This game started with the Spurs laughing and smiling. I even saw pop smile before the game began. They were taking a lightly, I doubt that was missed by the Suns players as if they needed more motivation.

While economists threw down the gauntlet here, Popovich will be more ready next time. And it is sure to be more physical.

I would not plan on purchasing playoff tickets this year. The management team has bungled it big time. (These guys are really running NBA team?) The Run & Gun Suns are gone. That was who the Suns were and that was what won them games, that was what we loved to watch, an offensive juggernaut.  All gone.

Steve Kerr and Sarver decided to pitch our beloved Run & Gun for not. They unilaterally decided that we need a middle that was large and bulky. I would have to agree with them that a team built like the Spurs and now the Lakers, win championships. Run & Gun has not won any. (At least, what I remember.) But, this trade was not the way to do it. . Our offense is no longer overwhelming; it is not the best in the league, or the fastest.

Today, the suns need to start acting like the Spurs. They need to play stifling defense and what I have always called "brute ball."  Brute ball is hold'em, shove'em, push'em; "We got 5 fouls per person and by God, we are going to use them."  The ref will not see all the fouls, so we got more like ten fouls per person and because not fouls all will get called, we slow them down by holding, shoving and pushing. (AKA Spurs philosophy in the playoffs last year.)

If you want to play brute ball, you need a team built for it. Not just one or two guys. Steve Nash (bless him) is not a brute guy. He is not going to get in anyone's face and with his size stop them.  Barbosa, Diaw and Hill are not going to either. Hill plays decent defense, but not brute ball.  Stat is not going to either. He has the potential to learn and the will to do it, but today he is not stopping anyone. For brute ball, we will need new players at every position and likely a new coach.

We will not win any games without stifling defense.

I am sorry to see it all go to waste in a single trade. I am not a brute ball fan. I see no point in basketball when a team can physically hold opponents the entire game and not be fouled out. Basketball is not one continuous contentious hand check.

But I digress. Kerr and Sarver decision to trade Shawn Marion has single handedly, expensively, and permanently lost  the Suns identity, lost games, and lost the playoffs.