I've been playing Strat-O-Matic since the 60's and I KNOW some of you guys play it.

Take a peak at Ryan Braun's card.  And look at his fielding LOL.

HMMM - OK - I need more words.  Did Ryan actually use a glove?? Did anyone know HOW bad he was at 3B?  I mean WOW!!  No wonder Cappy's and Suppan's ERA was  higher then normal.

Back on July 30th,using home and road records of all teams involved I made a prediction right here on this site that the Brewers would come in 2nd place by 1 tenth of a game.

Cubs 85.6
Brewers 85.5 victories

Using the same formula I did the same thing this morning and the Cubs are pulling away

Cubs 83.8
Brewers 83.2

So - obviously EVER game that we don't give away is huge and it's going to be a long long 17 days coming up.

The Crew need to win 6 of the 10 home games and 3 of the 7 road games.  Anything more and it's all up to the Cubs.  

I have to think that the Crew can win 4 of the 7 roadies so that the pressure is off the home games  .

Anyway you look at it. pass the Valium!

Honestly - am I?   The dumb looking MB in the form of a child's baseball mitt.  The hidious Yellow and Blue (who's idea was it for THOSE colors).

They look like some circus costume.

Todays uni's are so much more adult-like.  The rotund beer barrel swatting is the only redeeming thing about that era.

Sure it reminds people of the past but that is the past, why compare these Brewers to those Brewers.

I took all the games the Brewers play Home and road and all the games the Cubs play Home/Road.

H% = Home winning pct
R% = Road winning pct

Then using this formula
((H%*H%)/((H%*H%)+(R%*R%)))for each series giving me how many wins each team would have ever series.

Yea yea - teams change and blah blah but just hang on for a second.

The Brewers will be
16.8 - 11.2 at home and 11.8 - 15.2 on the road
The Cubs will be
16.4 - 13.6 at home and 14.3 - 14.7 on the road

Adding those numbers to the current standings the final outcome is

Cubs  85.7 - 76.3
Brews 85.6 - 76.4

SO - looks like we're in for a tight race.

W/L
Brewers 14-6
Cubs  13-7

Average
Brewers .287
Cubs .277

Runs
Brewers 123
Cubs 87

HRs
Brewers 34
Cubs 19

Doubles
Brewers 48
Cubs 38

Stolen Bases
Brewers 15
Cubs 17

Errors
Brewers 17
Cubs 11

Doubles
Brewers 48
Cubs 38

On Base Pct
Brewers .353
Cubs .339

Slugging Pct
Brewers .504
Cubs .433

Base on Balls
Brewers 72
Cubs 64

Strikeouts
Brewers 166
Cubs 116

PITCHING

ERA
Brewers 3.92
Cubs 3.49

Strikeouts
Brewers 153
Cubs 163

Home Runs Off
Brewers 17
Cubs 23

Batting in the last 20 games.  All others have less then 20AB.

As a team the Brewers are batting .283 with a .346 OBP and a .468 SLG.

Pitching is 4.41ERA and 11-9 which is 1st place in the last 20 games gaining 2 on the Cubs.

The ship has stabilized and is doing what all young teams to - go on streaks.  

Side point - the tigers.  In their last 20 games AS A TEAM, they are hitting .329. Nice to get out of there with 2 wins!

graffanino 45AB  .346  .556 SLG
hart 78AB  .346 .667 SLG
estrada 70AB  .329
mench 25AB  .320
fielder 75AB  .307 .391 OBP .800SLG
hall 63AB .302 .397 OBP
braun 77AB .286  
counsell 43AB  .283
jenkins 52AB .269  .361 OBP
hardy 79AB .228  .291 OBP  .304 SLG

Mench .364
Hart  .337 .449 OBP
Graff  .324
Braun .317
Fielder  .306  .806 SLG
Council .286  .375 OBP
Estrada .254
Miller  .235
Hall  .230  .299 OBP
Gwynn .219  .265 OBP
Hardy  .176  .237 OBP
Jenkins  .170 .262 OBP
Gross .167 .269 OBP

PITCHING

Sheets 1.78 ERA
Vargus 4.58
Suppan 5.64
Cap  5.73
Bush 6.04

I tell ya - being a High Def watcher FSN has to have the worst telecast on all 300 channels I get.

it is ALMOST unwatchable - literally!

I don't know if it is the upconversion from 480i or WHAT!!  Since my Mitsubishi automagically upconverts everything to 1080i I can not switch it off but they are the worst.

WHAT 16 frames a second or something?

During the game today I searched for ANY channel that was broadcasting in 480i that had a worse picture and it was hands down the worst!

BEFORE the road trip - the average OPPONENT had a winning PCT of .441

THE ROAD TRIP average was .560 (WOW)

ALL 109 remaining games  .462

The Brewers just went through was the hardest part of the schedule.  Was it a slump? perhaps but it was also the best clubs in the NL on the road.

Brewers play one more series against NYM,PHI,ATL,SD and DET - the rest are mostly against the NL Central!  YUMM!!

I think WAY to many people were expecting Bill Hall to be WAY too good.  

His 35 HRs last year were an anomaly.  I was expecting him to hit 25HRs and MAYBE 70 RBIs and thus - he is not that far off his pace.

The Brewers HAD to be thinking that he would be the ONLY real power threat after Prince and thus gave him WAY too much money.

PLUS - He should not be the CF on this team - it should be GWYNN.

Hall should be more like a Caesar Tovar style player. A guy that players every position and does it well.  A super fill-in that can hit!!

The guy still scares me in CF and next to GWYNN looks like he covers as much ground as a turtle.  

I was looking at WHY the Brewers are do great against some pitchers and why not others.

Flyball pitchers have an ERA of 2.96
Groundball Pitchers have an ERA of 5.42

YUP - double checked it!!! Brewers love ground ball pitchers

Looking at Power vs. Finesse

Finesse pitchers ERA is 5.81
Power Pitchers have a 4.01 ERA

Before and during road trip

Before GB/FB 1.35  P/F 1.11
During GB/FB 1.05  P/F 0.95

To compare

Fly ball and Finesse <1
Ground ball and Power >1

       GB/FB  Power/Finesse
Bush    1.31    0.90
Cap    1.00    1.14
Sheets    1.21    1.06
Suppan    1.39    0.90
Vill    0.90    1.08

Coming UP

Maddox - 2.34  0.89
Germano -2.24  1.02
Peavy - 1.12   1.32

So if this holds true the Brewers should do well against San Diego!

OK - Two home runs equaling 900 feet.  That is what Prince Fielder hit last night at Dodger Stadium.

What bugs me is that the announcers kept saying that Dodger Stadium was such a hard place to hit home runs.

Do they just make these things up??  

Looking at Ball Park data actually it is the opposite!!!

In the past three years there have been 10% MORE  home runs hit in Dodger Stadium then in other ballparks.  Last year there were 22% more and THIS year (2007) another 22% more.  Yet all last night they were saying how the Brewer could not depend on hitting home runs because balls did not carry.

Yea - that is why Prince hit a 438 and a 462 foot home runs and Estrada added another.

Sure there are 7% less doubles and 50% less triples and 2% less runs on average but when if comes to Home Runs!!  Stop the lies!  

Right handed batters LOVE Dodger Stadium (all three HR's were by lefties last night).

San Diego is the place the Brewers will nee to manufacture runs.

MIL 12-8
LAD 11-9

AVG
LAD .269
MIL .255

OBP
LAD .328
MIL .310

SLG
LAD .410
MIL .450

ERA
LAD 3.83
MIL 3.69

Notables
Matt Diaz AVG .486
William Harris AVG .370
Chipper Jones .696 SLG
John Smoltz ERA 1.23

JJ Hardy SLG .720
Prince SLG .699 (tough to be #2 with that LOL)
Jenkins SLG .600

Mench, Miller,Gross & Graffanino all hitting less then Brewer pitchers (.184).

MIL 4th in runs
LAD 12th

MIL #1 in HR's
LAD 14th

Errors
MIL #1 in least committed (9)
LAD 2nd to last (18)helps their ERA

BB

LAD 2nd with 80
MIL LAST with 49  hmmmmm pressing?

I wonder how many of you know who Larry was????

He was Robins brother and holds the Major League Record for the shortest baseball career in the Majors!

He was a pitcher for the Astros and was called up.  Thirteen days later he was called on in the 9th inning to close out a game.

As he was warming up to make his Major League debut he felt a pain in his right elbow. He was taken out of the game and never pitched again!  

With the Twins coming I looked at what both teams have done in the last 20 games!

Minnesota is 7-13
Milwaukee is 12-8

Twins / Brewers

AVG .281 / .255
OBP .348 / .317
SLG .405 / .440*
ERA 3.96 / 3.37*

OFFENSE

Runs 86 / 98
HRs 17 / 27
2B  30/ 35
SB  10 / 9
ERRORS  8 / 9
WALKS 30 / 56
Ks  109 / 132

PITCHING

K's  130 / 117
HR's off  17 /19

Random stuff

Mench average is .157
Brewer pitchers 167

First of all the Brewers go into NY with the media all over them.  I don't care what Yost says.  It has to effect 23 year olds.  

Swaggering into NY as the IT club and hot with the press all over you, family and friends goo gooing you and you play three totally opposite games.  I feel that 3 games was a draw - BUT - 1-2.

Then the strange one.

Game one 6 run 8th inning and BAM, EVERYBODY is talking about that game.  It's the BAD game of the season.

Game 2.  Walk off HR

Game 3. One team is flirting with history and it's not the Brewers - THEN to cap it off Hardy spoils their the fun with a HR.

Game 4 - The streaker!  The Line-up shake up and Sheets, the streak stopper takes over and the Crew win in Crew fashon with JUST enough to win.

Yea 2-5 but so so close to 4-3.

Thats why they play 162.  

I'm not going to say I told you so because I never did.  But what we are witnessing is what young teams are all about.  Streaks.

As good as the Brewers were playing in the first  30ish games we are seeing the other side of a growing young team now.  Some players are pressing and some are losing focus at times.

Last night two worlds collided.  A pressing offense and an outstanding pitching performance.  Throw in some young defense and there is nothing you can do.

I have to think this is now a bona fide slump and what is needed at this moment is calmness.  

It's a streak of the bad kind and with young teams you just have to endure them.

It'll turn.

Bring the umbrella but hope for a ray of sunshine.

We're 6 games up on the Cubs.

What goes around . . . . .

Well - ya gotta take the good with the bad.  When the Brewers were hot they were scoring just enough runs to win.  Now they are scoring just enough runs to lose.

This is why you play 162 games.  Still the best record in the NL and perhaps we can now relax a little.  We're seeing the OTHER side of the coin and STILL 6 1/2 games in first place.

Did ANYBODY think that on May 16th the Brewers would be 6.5 games up??  

This road trip is tough and I'm suspecting that too many people were a little too excited over a hot club.  

The sky is not falling, just a shower passing. On another note - The Crew haveto find a way to keep Gwynn in the line-up. The guy is a spark plug!!