SB Nation User Blog: Griswald

Prediction Thread!

Griswald — Fri, 30 Mar 2007 15:18:19 -0000

haven't seen this posted yet, but I caught a little bit of mike and mike in the morning and both peter gammons and steve phillips of espn picked the crew to take home the nl central division crown this year. i didn't catch much of what else they said, but i did hear that.

maybe a prediction thread is in order?

[editor's note, by battlekow] That's a damn fine idea.

Carlos Lee - helping the Crew in many different ways

Griswald — Sun, 16 Apr 2006 00:05:49 -0000

you don't have to watch many brewers games to realize that carlos lee has been the brewers offense in the first 11 games. the stats going into this afternoon's game at shea confirms it:

BA: .333 (team rank: 1)
HR: 4 (1)
RBI: 9 (1)
R: 8 (1)
TB: 26 (1)

etc. etc. arguably the biggest reason why the brewers are 7-4 right now.

however, it's also important to point out what else this does for the brewers - it gives them a lot of flexibility come july 31. it is speculated that this could be lee's last season as a brewer, as his price tag will likely be too much for the brewers' pockets, and also with guys like corey hart and nelson cruz waiting in the wings.

continued numbers like lee's been putting up and the brewers are going to win some games and have the possibility to greatly improve at the trading deadline. i know it may seem kind of weird to think like this, especially because carlos is such a fun player to watch, but i really believe that lee will not be a brewer in 2007 and melvin could really stack the ballclub for a major run toward the pennant in '07.

but then again, if lee could start getting some help from the rest of the lineup, the brewers might want to keep lee for help in their 2006 playoff chase...

Much concern about pitching staff

Griswald — Wed, 22 Mar 2006 19:29:37 -0000

Awhile back, in the diaries and elsewhere, there was talk about how underrated the Brewers' pitching staff was. How many "experts" had tagged the staff as the weakness of an up and coming club.

The general feeling held by many, myself included, was that those comments were incredulous. Last year, both the rotation and the bullpen were strengths and a year later, with some additions, it could be even better than last year.

After reading spring training reports, I am now not so sure about this pitching staff.

The first sign of concern for me came when Sheets went out with an injury and was put on the DL yesterday. I know he should be back in time for when the Crew goes to a five-man rotation, but the guy has been injury-prone his whole career, and nothing in his history indicates that this injury will be a one-time thing, that he'll be fine the rest of the season.

If we are going to make a run at 90 wins and a possible wild-card berth, we need Sheets healthy the whole year. It's just that simple. When healthy he is a legitimate ace and absolutely needs to be pitching every five days for the Brewers to have a shot.

But let's say he is out for an extended period of time. We have other good arms in the rotation, right?

Left-hander Doug Davis started a Class AAA game in minor-league camp Monday and gave up four runs (three earned) and six hits in four innings against the Iowa Cubs.

This is just one example, but in four innings, our opening day starter gives up three earned runs and six hits against a Triple A team. According to the Brewers' official site, Davis has only pitched in two games, so maybe it's not time to panic yet. But getting somewhat rocked by a minor league team doesn't exactly make one rest easy.

But I do think it's interesting to point out the ERA's of the projected rotation: Bush as the #5 and lone bright spot has given up only 2 earned runs in 14 innings. Meanwhile, Davis: 8 earned runs in 5 innings; Capuano, 7 earned runs in 8 innings; Ohka, 9 earned runs in 10 innings.

As for the bullpen, Turnbow and Kolb haven't been able to find it yet; both have ERAs over 10.

And maybe I am just worried for no reason. Spring training games don't mean anything and guys are just getting "warmed up" and will be ready to go by April. But when the same stuff keeps happening to multiple, key players I believe it's cause for concern. I'd also like to see the pitching staff enter the season with some kind of momentum - it's not imperative for a good year, but I don't think some of these numbers could make any of them feel comfortable, necessarily.

Brewers and Ohka avoid arbitration

Griswald — Wed, 15 Feb 2006 20:27:53 -0000

Add Ohka to the (short) list of Brewers avoiding arbitration. Just in off the wire:

The Milwaukee Brewers and right-hander Tomo Ohka reached agreement today on a contract for the 2006 season, avoiding a salary arbitration hearing scheduled for Thursday afternoon in St. Petersburg, Fla.
Details of the deal were not immediately available but Brewers assistant general manager Gord Ash indicated the sides settled for less than the $4.725 million midpoint of the figures filed. Okha had requested a salary of $5.2 million, with the Brewers filing for $4.25 million.
The agreement allowed Ash to leave Milwaukee and head for Phoenix to join general manager Doug Melvin in preparation for spring training, rather than traveling to Florida. It also kept alive the streak of Melvin and Ash of not going to an arbitration hearing since taking over the Brewers' baseball operations at the end of the 2002 season.
Ohka, who will be 30 on March 18, made $2.75 million last season, when he went 11-9 with a 4.04 earned run average. After being acquired in a June trade with Washington, he compiled a 7-6 record in 22 appearances (20 starts) with the Brewers.

Speaking of the Cubs...

Griswald — Fri, 10 Feb 2006 23:55:07 -0000

We were having some discussions in this thread about the Cubs' chances in the NL Central, for the most part concluding they would again be well out of first at the end of the year. I would personally agree with that, as well.

I came across this article that concludes the opposite. Except that the writer, uh, didn't really give any reasons.

That is, beyond this juicy little passage:

But the best thing the Cubs have going for them is a midmarket division and the winter of discontent for both Houston and St. Louis, not to mention the usual helping of Milwaukee, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh.

Putting aside the Brewers' chances, that's basically the whole argument that the Cubs will contend. Sure, the Cubs aren't that good, but neither is anyone else.

I'm sure Jeff and Jacob will add more, but perhaps he forgot they finished in fourth with 79 wins last year and also didn't make any vast improvements (sans Pierre)? If his logic holds up then the Cubs would just finish in fourth again wouldn't they?

But then again, I guess it is all summed up by the final passage of the article:

All you need is a little help from above.

With that team, nothing more need be said.

Starting lineup predictions

Griswald — Thu, 09 Feb 2006 06:46:16 -0000

With the re-signing of Clark today, I thought it might be time to predict what the most consistent starting lineup would be for the Crew in '06. It may be a little early, but at least it's February now, right?

So here's what I got:

Clark, CF (R)
Hardy, SS (R) (continuing on last year's success)
Weeks, 2B (R) (probably not right away but my gut says he'll find the 3 hole and get comfortable)
Lee, LF (R) (more consistency from Carlos this year after a year of NL pitching)
Jenkins, RF (L)
Fielder, 1B (L) (I foresee him coming out of games if the opposition brings in a lefty out of the pen, and probably sitting a lot against starting southpaws in favor of Hart or Hall. He'll have his lumps like Rickie and JJ did last year)
Koskie, 3B (L)
Miller, C (R)
pitcher

Hmmmm. Looking at this lineup I just made some things jump out at me. First of all, that is not a bad lineup at all. I'd be really comfortable if that unit stayed healthy all year, and you throw in the depth we will have this year - from veterans like Cirillo to youngsters like Hart and Hall - and this is dare I say pretty solid.

But just in the order itself, the way I have it has four right handers at the top, followed by three left-handers. So that probably won't happen, so depending on how Koskie is, maybe he moves up to the 2 and JJ moves back? I personally like Hardy at the 2 because he makes contact and would be able to play the small ball before Lee et al get their cracks.

Also, Jenkins-Fielder back to back kind of scares me, because if they both struggle at the same time, that's a lot of K's in the 5-6 spots. Of course, this is all hypothetical. Any other thoughts?

Some thoughts

Griswald — Sat, 06 Aug 2005 22:31:46 -0000

Some thoughts on the state of the Brewers have been piling up in the ol' noggin lately and it time to get them out of my system...

1. JJ Hardy will be a fine major league player and should be playing pretty much every day. His defense is definitely his strength and his offensive skills have shown some signs of life the past several weeks and with more experience he will only get better. I also feel it is important to develop/maintain the middle infield chemistry between him and Weeks. By all accounts, the two bond very well.

2. Bill Hall would be a very intriguing trade prospect. Here you have a 25-year-old who has shown flashes of big things and can play all the positions on the infield. Personally, I just don't think he can hack it as an every day player, but it wouldn't be impossible to convince another GM otherwise. With a logjam on the left side of the infield (especially once Cirillo comes back), a move involving Hall could mean more playing time for JJ and perhaps add some depth in the outfield or a No. 4 or 5 starter.

3. What the hell is going on with Geoff Jenkins? Not too long ago the guy was toiling in the .230's, now he is nearing .300 and finally playing up to what was expected of him when he signed that big extension (which, at the time, I strongly opposed). Can the team trust Jenkins? I don't think so. He gets injured too much and he has a tendency to go into prolonged slumps (see the past year and a half up to around June). I've stated a lot on this site that the Brewers biggest weakness is a quality No. 3 hitter, and despite his hot streak I still don't feel that Jenkins is the answer. That being said, I'd like to ride this wave for as long as possible.

4. A wild card push is not out of the question. Look at the teams behind the Astros and tell me they're not vulnerable: Washington, Florida, Philadelphia, Mets, and the Cubs. The optimist in me sees the Nats' free-fall continue- lack of offense, overworked bullpen. Watching the past two series against the Mets and Phillies and knowing the each team's history of collapses, I really believe both teams are poised for a fall. As for the Cubs, yes Nomar and Wood are back, but the way they've been playing lately that won't matter. The Marlins? Their starting pitching seems to be crumbling. Another advantage for the Brewers (and I don't have the numbers on this), is that four of those teams are in the NL East, so that situation will most likely work itself out. The contenders will separate from the pretenders. Theoretically, at least.

Now for those Astros. Will these guys start losing already? I know they can, they did it quite frequently early in the season. They got to be due for another slump soon, right? Right?!

I realize that it sounds a lot simpler than what it sounds like, but I strongly feel that the Crew could make a push. They'll need some luck (if the past 3 games are any indication, that won't be hard) and some timely hitting and pitching. All three of those things have been on display at different points during the season. Now, as the Crew is a win away from a winning record, it's time to put it all together and make a late-season playoff push.

This state would go crazy if it happened. It's been 13 years since the team has made a serious run for the playoffs, and you can just sense here that everyone is just dying for the Brewers to show something, some sign that THIS could be THE YEAR.

Hope is in the air. It's high time to put these past demons behind us. October baseball in Milwaukee would be unreal. And "we got the fighters, we got the gamers, we got the hard workers" to make it happen.

Let's do it!!

Yost in final year of contract

Griswald — Mon, 11 Jul 2005 21:53:35 -0000

With Yost in his last year of a 3-year contract, and 1 year left in Melvin's, it sounds like the Brewers are going to extend the contracts of both (per the Journal Sentinel).

Personally I think this would be a great move. You can just start to feel this team develop and on the verge of something great. Rickie, Carlos, Prince, Brady, Sheets, et al... there's something here. And I think Ned and Melvin are the guys who can help take us to the next level. Developing continuity by keeping everybody together will be crucial to the Brewers' success.

Now, another second half collapse like last year and maybe I'll rethink this. But for all of the Brewers' struggles this year, those two are not the main factors, in my opinion. At least not as much as underachieving, overpaid veterans (ahem Spivey, Jenkins).

But anyway, should be a great 2nd half!