SB Nation User Blog: Grudyfan

Dynasty League with Unique Scoring

Grudyfan — Wed, 04 Feb 2009 03:10:20 -0000

First off, I'd like to offer a disclaimer that I know posting of fantasy league openings aren't generally tolerated and have avoided the practice up to this point - however, I think you'll see why the upcoming post will be a little more educational beyond a normal league advertisement.

This league in question is enterting its 13th consecutive year in operation, and cannot be defined as a Roto or points-based league. In its simplest terms, the teams in this league play against itself - each team assembles a 25-man active roster (40-man maximum, so up to a 15-player reserve squad) with a 9-man lineup (even the NL-only leaue uses a DH slot), 4-man bench, 5-man rotation, and a 7-man bullpen. The league has two divisions: an AL-only and NL-only.

A team only plays a game when its pitching staff combines to pitch 9 innings on a certain day, and the amount of runs that your team allows is determined by the amount of earned runs your pitchers combine to allow. For example, if Roy Halladay pitches 6 innings giving up 2 ER; Brad Ziegler pitches 1 inning with no runs; Jesse Crain pitches 1 inning with 1 ER and your closer Joel Zumaya pitches 1 inning with no runs, your pitchers combined for 9 innings and allowed a combined 3 runs, thus your offense must combine to score more than 3 runs to win this game. A queue is created in the event you have multiple starters pitch on the same day, so you can use a starter's game within a couple days of it actually happening.

Hitters in your lineup use their hits to determine how many (if any) runs they drive in. Without going into extreme detail, hitters in your lineup use their hits to drive in batters within 3 spots of them (simulating the three outs per inning). Here's a crude example:

                     AB 1B 2B 3B HR
Pedroia    4    1    0   0    0
Rios              4    0    1   0    0
Upton            4    0   0    0    0
A.Rodriguez 4    0   1    0    0

Pedroia's single puts him on first, Rios' double puts runners on second and third. Upton puts up an 0-fer and has no impact, but Rodriguez's double drives in both Rios and Pedroia (the last batter he can drive in, because he's three spots ahead in the lineup). We do use BB/K, SBs and boxscores are usually more complex, but I just wanted this to show an example of why our league lineups try to replicate real life lineups: you want your high-average, low-power guys in the leadoff, with your masher as your cleanup.

Defense also plays a role in roster assembly - though your runs allowed is normally determined by ER given up by your pitchers, errors committed by your hitters will allow your pitchers' unearned runs to score. Metrics like UZR or +/- would be impossible to integrate into this kind of game, but defensive liabilities that committ a lot of errors (remember when B.J. Upton used to play the infield?) will hurt your team's performance.

Each team has a cap limit for assembling their roster, and for continuity's sake we use the Sporting News Fantasy baseball magazine (we have for probably a decade) to determine a player's base price during the UFA period. Our season has a RFA period, where each team has the opportunity to tender up to 5 re-signs of their expiring contracts, then moves to the UFA period that takes about 3-5 days to complete a little before the season starts. Contract lengths can vary (depending on the situation) for up to 3 years, and we're thinking of instituting a minor league draft starting this year.

I tried to keep this post as skeletal and yet informative as possible, so there are quite a few details I had to leave out, but we have at least two openings for this league as of now, so if you're interested or have any more questions in our M.O., leave your e-mail in a response to this message.

Our league's website: http://www.flb-northwest.com/index.htm
Thank you for your time
- Grudyfan

Favorite Failed Prospects

Grudyfan — Fri, 28 Nov 2008 19:05:41 -0000

Are there any prospects (or non-prospects at this point in their careers) that you still hold out unreasonable hope for? Players that are past their peak age of prospect-dom, or guys that are really old for their leagues because injuries or some other factors held them back? It could be that these players are (or have been) Rule V eligibile or now minor league free agents but maybe, just maybe, they can sign on to the right situation and salvage a career and you can proudly gloat that you never gave up on him?

Here's a few of my favorites:

Shane Komine, P, Oak - Three years ago, Komine was generally regarded as one of the organizations's top 10 prospects due to his above-average control of a varied but not overpowering arsenal. Worries about his inabilities to dominate at higher levels and about his durability due to his size (he's 5'9") have seemed to manifest themselves. He was injured must of the 2008 season (I don't know why) but at 27 and with plenty of AAA experience and a couple cups of coffee at the ML level, still might have a bullpen job sometime in the future.

Fabio Castro, P, Tor - Another pint-sized pitcher (5'7"), but unlike Komine could dial up his fastball to the mid-90s, Castro has bounced between the White Sox, Rangers, Phillies, and now the Blue Jays organizations (as the PTNL in the Matt Stairs trade) and yet is still only 23 years old. His career ERA is just over 3, but he seems to be getting more work in minor league bullpens recently, where his destiny seems to be if he makes it back to the majors.

Bobby Livingston, P, FA (last with Cin) - He doesn't have an unusual physical profile, but Livingston was a favorite of mine because he was the ultimate junk-ball prospect when he was with Seattle a few years ago. He has a fastball that's along the lines of Jamie Moyer's (ie: not good), but managed to do well due to his varied arsenal, good command, and overall know-how on how to pitch. Worries that his stuff (or lack thereof) being too hittable at higher levels have proven true, though at 26 he could still find himself in the running for a long-relief or LOOGY role on a major league staff.

B.J. Szymanski, OF, Cin - Szymanski is a classic case study on how toolsy hitters with little to no plate discipline shouldn't have that one glaring weakness ignored. Owning a large, athletic frame, BA had Symanski rated higher within the organization than prospects like Homer Bailey and Joey Votto three years ago, but now he's essentially a NP. At 26 years of age and unable to post even a league average OPS in AA, his career is essentially toast.

Drew Meyer, 2B/SS, Tex - While never considered a superstar prospect, Meyer seemed to be on the fast track to be an average ML regular when he was drafted in the first round of the '02 draft. He was considered a gamer, a player with no real outstanding tools but due to his makeup and work ethic, should garner a spot on a major league roster. In the lower levels of the minors, Meyer showed an ability to make decent contact, flirting with .300 a couple of seasons and also showing decent plate discipline and steady defense. However, his lack of power has been deftly exploited by AAA-pitchers and has shown an inability to adapt at higher levels. At 27, the best he can hope for is as middle-infielder off the bench.

My Mariners Top 20 for 2009

Grudyfan — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 06:53:17 -0000

The parent team was mired in a year-long suckfest, and even though some top prospects graduated (Clement, Balentien, Rowland-Smith, LaHair), this list wasn't nearly as bad as I thought it would've been.

1. Carlos Triunfel, SS (B+) - Didn't set the world on fire in the Cal-league, but an 18-year old holding his own in High-A still makes him the organization's top prospect.

2. Greg Halman, OF (B) - Busted out on the prospect scene with an impressive showing of power and speed, lacks plate discipline.

3. Philippe Aumont, P (B) - Big (6'7") first-rounder flashes fastball that hits the upper 90s with a heavy sinker.

4. Michael Pineda, P (B) - Led Seattle minor league pitchers in ERA and Ks as a 19-year old in A-ball.

5. Adam Moore, C (B-) - Questionable defensive abilities, but shows good all-around offensive game for a catcher, making AA all-star team.

6. Juan Ramirez, P (B-) - Shows good stuff and decent numbers for a pitcher that just turned 20.

7. Joshua Fields*, P (B-) - If he signs (he has until the beginning of the next draft to do so), his nasty fastball/curveball combo will make him one of the best relief pitchers in the minors.

8. Jharmidy DeJesus, 3B (B-) - Posted over a .900 OPS as an 18-year old across Rookie and Short season leagues.

9. Michael Saunders, OF (C+) - Some might find this ranking too low, but Saunders shows a good all-around game. Good with the glove with developing power, Saunders shows no glaring weaknesses or any exceptional strength.

10. Luis Valbuena, 2B/SS (C+) - As a 22-year old promoted to AAA, he showed an ability to hit for average (.302), good plate discipline (28:32 BB:K ratio) and some speed (10 SB).

11. Carlos Peguero, 1B/OF (C+) - Doesn't really have a defensive home and his plate discipline is terrible, but he does have a good bat with decent power. We'll see how he'll fare outside the Cal-league environs.

12. Matt Tuiasosopo, 3B (C+) - Finally started showing some power in AAA and earned a call-up the big leagues. Still young at 22.

13. Michael Wilson, OF (C+) - Though he repeated the league, he was much better at drawing walks, upping his average (.277) and flashing impressive power (27 HR).

14. Mario Martinez, 3B (C+) - 18-year old impressed in rookie league, hitting .307/.344/.462.

15. Nick Hill, P (C+) - Survived (barely) his tenure in the Cal-league with decent numbers, may be destined for the bullpen.

16. Dennis Raben, OF (C+) - Fringe average defender showed a good bat in his first taste of short-season ball.

17. Justin Thomas, P (C+) - Could be useful as a back-end starter/swingman for Seattle next year.

18. Nathan Adcock, P (C+) - 6'5 20-year old struck out 82 in 77.1 IP with a 3.72 ERA in A-ball.

19. Johan Limonta, 1B (C+) - Somewhat old (24 at the start of the year) for AA, Limonta showed his early-season peformance in the Cal-league was no fluke by posting an .868 OPS for West Tenn.

20. Shawn Kelley, P (C) - Relief pitcher pitched in 3 levels in 2008 with a combined ERA of 1.88 and 68 ks in 62.1 IP.

Others: Danny Carroll, Travis Chick, Edilio Colina, Joe Dunigan, Donald Hume, Kenn Kasparek, Brett Lorin, Matt Mangini, Gabriel Noriega, Edward Paredes.

While I am (unfortunately) a big Seattle fan, there are some prospects here that I know little from their statistical profile, and I don't pretend to know everything about these aforementioned prospects. If I've left someone off, ranked someone too high/low, let me hear it.

Kris Medlen

Grudyfan — Mon, 25 Aug 2008 16:56:58 -0000

BA had Medlen rated as Atlanta's 24th best prospect going into this season as a reliever with a chance to fast track himself to the majors, but after converting to a starter earlier this season he looks to have found his new calling.

As a 22-year old in AA, he was an unspectacular 1-3, 4.70 ERA in 30.2 IP with a 30:6 K:BB ratio. Since starting, he's 5-5, 3.23 ERA in 83.2 IP with a 82:20 K:BB ratio. His component ratios have for the most part improved across the board since his conversion - his K/IP rate is identical, his walk rate has increased very little, homer rate has decreased, and his batting average allowed has gone down by 50 points.

In his last game on the 22nd, he went 6 innings, gave up no runs on three hits, allowed one walk and fanned 10. This conversion might delay his calling up to the bigs by a little, but I think he's definitely increased his stock as a prospect with this season.

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Kris%20Medlen&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=450665

Prospect Comparison

Grudyfan — Fri, 01 Aug 2008 23:24:54 -0000

Prospect A (5'8, 160) AAA (Age 25): .312/.376/.509 16 SB/6CS

Prospect B (6'1, 163) AA/AAA (Age 25): .297/.346/.393 54 SB/17CS

I've often compared Prospect B to a possible Prospect A - Chone Figgins is Prospect A and Eugenio Velez is Prospect B. Both were seen as C+ type prospects throughout their time in the minors with the potential to be good utility players. Figgins has definitely reached that mark, becoming one of his own breed of super-subs for the Angels, while Velez has initially struggled in developing into that role.

Over their minor league careers, Velez actually hit for a higher average and slugged for a higher percentage (.295/.450 to .273/.384) while their OBPs have been nearly identical (.342 to .346). Both players played a variety of positions and excellent speed was their best tool, but my question for the community is do you think Velez has a decent shot in turning into a Figgins type player at the major league level? He really struggled when initially given the Giants' starting second base job, getting demoted when his average was barely above the Mendoza line. Velez did do very well in AAA, posting a line of .310/.372/.509 with 13 SB in 42 games leading to him being recalled a couple weeks ago by the parent club, but his time in the lineup has been relegated to mainly pinch-hitting duties.

WIth the glut of mediocre middle infield prospects in San Fran (Burriss, Bocock, Frandsen) can he do enough to distance himself from the pack or at least attain a regular supersub position? I've never had the chance to see Velez live, so any input from those who have would be greatly appreciated.

2005 Hypothetical Atlanta Braves

Grudyfan — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 00:17:25 -0000

This following roster for the 2005 Atlanta Braves assumes what the roster could've looked like if no players departed via free agency or trades. In order to qualify, players must have originally signed with Atlanta as an international signing or through the amateur draft.

Please note that this post is meant to generate discussion on each teams' ability to develop and/or sign homegrown talent. This team is fictional, and details like its economic feasability should be ignored.

Everyday Lineup:
SS Rafael Furcal
C Javy Lopez
3B Chipper Jones
LF Jermaine Dye
CF Andruw Jones
1B Adam LaRoche
2B Marcus Giles
RF Jeff Francoeur
P Slot

Bench:
C Brian McCann
Util Mark DeRosa
1B/OF Ryan Klesko
1B/3B Wes Helms
SS Kelly Johnson

Rotation:
Tom Glavine
Jason Schmidt
Kevin Millwood
Odalis Perez
Jason Marquis/Adam Wainwright

Bullpen:
LR Bruce Chen
LR Chuck James
MR Kent Mercker
MR Matt Belisle
SU Blaine Boyer
SU Mike Stanton
CL Esteban Yan

Excluded players: C Eddie Perez, 1B Randall Simon, 2B Mike Mordecai, 2B Tony Graffanino, 2B Nick Green, SS Wilson Betemit, 3B Andy Marte, OF Ryan Langerhans, SP Kyle Davies, SP Horacio Ramirez, P Darrell May, P Rob Bell, RP Jose Capellan, RP Macay McBride

2005 Hypothetical New York Yankees

Grudyfan — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 04:25:11 -0000

This following roster for the 2005 New York Yankees assumes what the roster could've looked like if no players departed via free agency or trades. In order to qualify, players must have originally signed with New York as an international signing or through the amateur draft.

Everyday Lineup:
SS Derek Jeter
CF Bernie Williams
LF Alfonso Soriano
RF Hideki Matsui
3B Mike Lowell
1B Nick Johnson
C Jorge Posada
DH Carl Everett
2B Robinson Cano

Bench:
C Dioner Navarro
2B/SS D'Angelo Jimenez
OF Marcus Thames
SS Cristian Guzman

Rotation:
Andy Pettitte
Orlando Hernandez
Jose Contreras
Eric Milton
Victor Zambrano

Bullpen:
LR Chien-Ming Wang
LR Zach day
MR Ramiro Mendoza
MR Russ Springer
SU Randy Choate
SU Yhency Brazoban
CL Mariano Rivera

Excluded players: 1B J.T. Snow, 3B Andy Phillips, OF Gerald Williams, OF Ricky Ledee, OF Melky Cabrera, OF Juan Rivera, SP Al Leiter, SP Tony Armas, Jr., SP Brad Halsey, SP Brandon Claussen, RP Mike DeJean, RP Randy Flores, RP Sean Henn

2005 Hypothetical Minnesota Twins

Grudyfan — Sun, 29 Jun 2008 06:16:23 -0000

This following roster for the 2005 Minnesota Twins assumes what the roster could've looked like if no players departed via free agency or trades. In order to qualify, players must have originally signed with Minnesota as an international signing or through the amateur draft.

Everyday Lineup:
LF Matt Lawton
C Joe Mauer
CF Torii Hunter
DH Justin Morneau
RF Jacque Jones
3B Corey Koskie
2B Michael Cuddyer
SS Denny Hocking
1B Doug Mientkiewicz

Bench:
C A.J. Pierzynski
OF Jason Kubel (injured)/Bobby Kielty
Util Terry Tiffee
2B Todd Walker

Rotation:
Brad Radke
Mark Redman
Cory Lidle
Scott Baker
Scott Erickson

Bullpen:
LR J.D. Durbin
MR Juan Rincon
MR Travis Bowyer
MR Jesse Crain
SU J.C. Romero
SU LaTroy Hawkins
CL Eddie Guardado

Hypothetical 2005 Washington Nationals

Grudyfan — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 19:34:10 -0000

This following roster for the 2005 Washington Nationals assumes what the roster could've looked like if no players departed via free agency or trades. In order to qualify, players must have originally signed with Washington as an international signing or through the amateur draft.

Everyday Lineup:
CF Grady Sizemore
SS Orlando Cabrera
LF Jason Bay
RF Vlad Guerrero
C Michael Barrett
1B Jose Vidro
3B Ryan Zimmerman
2B Brandon Phillips
P Spot

Bench:
OF/1B Brad Wilkerson
3B Geoff Blum
OF Milton Bradley
OF Cliff Floyd
C Brian Schneider
2B/SS Mark Grudzielanek

Rotation:
Randy Johnson
Javier Vazquez
John Patterson
Cliff Lee
Shawn hill

Bullpen:
LR Kirk Rueter
LR Darrell Rasner
MR Jay Bergmann
MR Wes Littleton
SU Scott Strickland
CL Chad Cordero

Offense: My immediate observation of Washington's roster is the glut of outfield talent available. Washington's bench outfielders (Bradley, Floyd, Wilkerson) could be better than most team's starters, and a few that had to be left off (Jerry Owens, Marquis Grissom, Rondell White) also could start for some teams. As it stands, a starting outfield of Sizemore, Bay, and Vlad would agruably have the most offensive potential of any in the major leagues. Jose Vidro plays slightly out of position (mainly a second baseman, but has played sparingly at first) because the only other first baseman (Brad Fullmer) retired in 2004. Zimmerman makes a quick ascent to the starting lineup, Barrett provides solid offensive production at a premium position, and O-Cab is a solid contributor offensively and defensively. One important note is that Brandon Phillips is placed in the 8 hole because in 2005 he had yet to show much offensive production, but he too will develop into one of the best offensive middle infielders in the game.

Bench: The aforementioned depth of the outfield is the obvious strength of this unit - this Washington team could regularly cycle its outfielders to give breathers to some of its aging stars, assuming of course Milton Bradley doesn't go postal on hearing the idea. Blum and Grudzielanek provide infield depth, and Brian Schneider backs up Barrett.

Rotation: Health and age are the only factors that may keep this rotation from being one of the better staffs in all of baseball. I believe Randy Johnson's plaque for Cooperstown is being minted as we speak, and John Patterson has shown the capability of being an above average starting pitcher if he could only stay healthy. Javier Vazquez has been one of the more consistent starting pitchers in recent years, while you never know what version of Cliff Lee you're getting in any given year and Shawn Hill rounds out the rotation.

Bullpen: The age extremes of this bullpen is interesting - Rueter and Strickland will be playing in their last major league seasons, while everyone else has two years or less of ML experience (Littleton technically didn't make his ML debut until 2006 but would have been theoretically the best option coming out of camp). Cordero was already developing into one of the NL's best closers in his first full season, but the rest of the pen is hardly an inspiring bunch.

The Montreal/Washington franchise has been well documented for habitually trading away its best talent before they cost the organization too much (perhaps setting the example for Florida's fire sales?) and this example showcases that the organization's scouting directors (which consistently get lambasted for having thin minor league systems) should not be at fault, but rather the executive staff and the circumstances surrounding the team's past 'contraction' should to blame.

2005 Hypothetical SF Giants

Grudyfan — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 03:49:07 -0000

This following roster for the 2005 San Francisco Giants assumes what the roster could've looked like if no players departed via free agency or trades. In order to qualify, players must have originally signed with San Francisco as an international signing or through the amateur draft.

Everyday lineup:

SS Royce Clayton
3B Bill Mueller
CF Chris Singleton
LF Pedro Feliz
1B Lance Niekro
RF Jacob Cruz
C Doug Mirabelli
2B Deivi Cruz
P Slot

Bench:
C Yorvit Torrealba
1B/OF Dan Ortmeier
OF Adam Hyzdu
OF Jason Ellison
OF Todd Linden

Rotation:

Russ Ortiz
Noah Lowry
Jerome Williams
Jesse Foppert
Francisco Liriano/Matt Cain

Bullpen:

LR Brad Hennessey
LR Kevin Correia
MR Scott Linebrink
MR David Aardsma
SU Bob Howry
SU Keith Foulke
CL Joe Nathan

Lineup: You know that occasional San Fran poster who incessantly complains on how his franchise hasn't developed any recent big-time offensive players and you think to yourself, "he's probably just exaggerating?" Taking a look at this absolutely punchless lineup should explain that guy's frustrations pretty quickly - aside From Feliz's decent homer potential and Mueller's steady production for a few years, you know you're screwed when your everyday 5 hitter is a platoon player (who will inevtiably convert to a pitcher) and your 3 hitter will play the last season as a marginal big league player. Deivi Cruz plays slightly out of position (mainly a SS, but he did play somewhat of a utility role through his career) because SF developed no second basemen that made any noise at the major league level. A combination of a series of tools bust draft picks and a non-existent international signing outfit until the mid-90s (Feliz signed in '94) seems to be the main culprits for this weak squad.

Bench: The offensive punch of this bench looks similar to that of the bottom half of the everyday lineup, which in this case is not a good thing. Little infield depth coupled with a bench full of fourth outfielders clogs the usefulness of this group.

Rotation: In 2005 this rotation would have probably provided average (at best) to slightly below average production as a unit. A very young rotation minus Ortiz; Liriano, Cain, and Lowry will all grow up to be good starters (control problems will make Lowry inconsistent, injuries will hamper Liriano's development), and Tim Lincecum will be drafted the following year in 2006. Boof Bonser and Brian Burres also sit ready to make their respective ML debuts in AAA Fresno.

Bullpen: The one strong point of this team. Many solid relievers that could be quality arms on most teams' bullpens had to be excluded (Mike Myers, Aaron Fultz, Clay Hensley, Mike Remlinger among others), and if this team ever somehow managed to hold a lead into the 7th inning, the trio of Howry, Foulke, and Nathan would not blow many leads. Linebrink and Aardsma provide a solid middle relief corps, and Hennessey/Correia anchor down the roles of swingmen to alleviate the workload of a young rotation.

This team's profile differs little to that of this year's pre-season Giants - most baseball pundits picked SF to be the NL's doormat based on a punchless offense even though the pitching staff is solid. While this team might develop one of the best rotations in baseball, how many wins do you think this 2005 version is capable of?