Ok, while people haven't really calmed down yet (Can we steal Brand?  Throw Max money at Arenas?  Start a bidding war with Philly and ATL over Josh Smith?), I wanted to calm down a bit personally and start looking at the Warriors for the long term, because really, that seems to be the view that Mullin is taking.  Apparently from all reports, they never went desperately after Baron once he opted out and tried to throw long-term money at him (Ramasar claims they never called at all).

While its amusing to watch the Warriors try to mess up Baron's dream by throwing a big deal at Elton Brand, I honestly think that Brand will not bolt for the money.  Not with the smoke that his agent has been throwing about how Brand wants to resign for less in order to fit another star onto the roster.  Not with Brand also getting into movie production (apparently working with Baron).  Maybe the Warriors hope to get the league's attention on any sort of (*gasp*) collusion, but bottom line, Brand will re-sign.

The rumored max deal for Arenas also seems interesting.  Is he a MAX-type player?  Many people will argue that he isn't, and also doesn't make for the best backcourt fit with Ellis.  At the same time, he viewed fondly by Warriors fans.  Could this (cynically) be a bit of PR by Mullin to show that the front office isn't sitting around while their best player and leader leaves with nothing to show for it?  Washington can (and already has) top GS with their top offer, so for all we know, Mullin knew he wasn't going anywhere but threw this out to the media to say, "Hey we're trying over here."

While we will have a lot of cap room once Baron signs with the LAC, I'm going to argue that we shouldn't through big deals after any of the players currently on the market.  If you look at Chad Ford's list of top Unrestricted free agents, he has as the top 4: Elton Brand, Gilbert Arenas, Baron Davis, and Corey Maggette. No. 5? Desagana Diop.  BRRRR. . .that's a STEEP dropoff at that point.    The Restricted free agent list isn't much better and demands a higher price.

What Mullin should do (and will if he's looking to the future):

Collect pieces for the team that are either a) shorter term or b) not big contracts unless they expire soon.  One possibility, if the Sixers max out in getting Josh Smith who they covet, swoop in and see what can be done to get Andre Iguodala.  Josh Childress has also been a favorite of various GSOMers, and is someone we could get for less money.  I liked Shaun Livingston's game pre-injury, but the W's should consider just taking a flyer on him, because even if he were to get back to his former self, he had some major holes in his game.  Bottom line is that Mullin should be looking at the tier *below* the top tier and stop trying to throw all of the Warriors new cap room at 1 guy.

Monta is not the answer at PG.

As much as I love Monta's game, I don't think that he is or will become a top-flight PG.  Can he develop a 3 point shot?  Eventually.  Court vision and passing instinct are just two of those things that you either have or you don't.  Ellis will always be good for 1-2 driving and dishing assist in a game, the kind where he gets inside, and then wraps around the ball to Biedrins/Wright/Randolph for the jam, but he doesn't have the PG mentality.  Whenever Nellie entrusted him with lead guard responsibilities last season, he was very shaky and it affected his whole game.  He was prone to throwing the ball away or making careless passes that were stolen.  He was thinking too much and it showed.  If he chooses to, he can work on that, but to me that means that he doesn't have the true PG instinct that Baron/Nash/Kidd/Paul/Williams have.  He'll be passable in time, but for a run/gun team, you need a dynamic PG, not one who will just bring the ball upcourt and pass it inside.

The 2009 NBA draft

This is where (I hope) the Warriors look for their future PG.  If Ellis, Biedrins (and to a lesser extent, Bellinelli and Randolph) are their building blocks for the future, then they should be looking in next year's draft for their PG.  Current ESPN (Chad Ford) rankings has a lot of PGs that could be going in the draft next year:  Brandon Jennings, Ty Lawson, Darren Collison, and 3 "big" PGs: Nick Calathes (6-5), Ricky Rubio (6-4), and Jrue Holliday (6-4).  Yes, its way too early, but I think that the Warriors would have a great get if they could draft either Rubio or Holliday.  I have worries about Rubio from a defensive standpoint (lack of lateral quickness), but he is by all accounts an excellent passer and can definitely initiate an offense.  Holliday would basically be Russell Westbrook 2.0, which I can live with.  He should be able to match up defensively with guards that Ellis can't handle.

Top PGs in Chad Ford's Top 100 for the 2009 NBA Draft

4. Brandon Jennings (6-2, 165, Fr.)

5. Ricky Rubio (6-4, 180, Intl.)

8. Jrue Holliday (6-4, 180, Fr.)

11. Nick Calathes (6-5, 185, So.)

17. Ty Lawson (5-11, 195, Jr.)

26. Darren Collison (6-1, 165, Sr.)

(Since this pick hasn't even cooled yet, please be aware that this analysis is spur of the moment and a bit on the harsh side)

I'm a bit shocked.  Tim Kawakami, in his blog Talking Points Memo, is saying that this is who Mullin was targeting all along.  He even goes on to state that he sees Biedrins, Wright, Randolph, and Ellis being the future of the Warriors.

My first thought when I saw this pick?  You know how in Nintendo ice hockey, you could pick between the normal guy, the skinny guy, and the fat guy?

(via bp1.blogger.com)

We just completed a front court of all skinny guys.  And while they might be quick up and down the court, they tend to get bounced around a lot by the fat guys.

Random thought:  Does every comparable for Randolph in draft analysis list Brandan Wright?

Yet another random thought:  Does Mullin really miss playing with Chris Gatling *that* much?

Tale of the tape (taken from Draft Express' pre-draft camp measurements DB)

Brandon Wright:

6'10" in shoes, 200 lbs, 7'3.75" wingspan, 35.5 max vertical

Anthony Randolph:

6'10.25" in shoes, 197 lbs, 7'3" wingspan, 35.0 max vertical

Let's go to the stats:

Brandon Wright's first and only year at North Carolina:

14.7 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 1.8 BLKs in 27.4 min

Anthony Randolph's first and only year at LSU:

15.6 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 2.3 BLKs in 32.8 min

Not really seeing the logic here, and *definitely* not seeing any immediate help coming from this pick.  I have to hope that this is prelude to a trade *or* that some help will be brought in with the $10 million trade exception, otherwise the Warriors haven't done anything to help themselves in 2009.

In my first draft post, I discussed compatibility with the current Warriors core (Ellis and Biedrins), I want to mix in a few clues based on Don Nelson's system.  Don, while a brilliant coach, has been around long enough and grown cantakerous enough, that he's got some pretty set patterns that can be identified.  He is well-known for his antipathy towards rookie big men, but that didn't stop him from playing Webber or Nowitski (or lesser-known big men like Chris Gatling and Tyrone Hill).  He more or less pioneered the point forward position in the NBA,  For Nelson's offense, you need a big man who can:

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Apologies for yet another draft diary, but I'm going to try to come at this from a bit of a different angle.  I want to look at who in the draft is "compatible" with the Warriors.  Before you assume that this is another way of saying drafting for need, its not.  I'm a firm believer in drafting the Best Player Available, but I think with the 14th pick you also have to look at the Best Player Available that works for the W's. 

By compatibility, I mean someone who can work well with the players we currently have and/or are planning to build around, rather than drafting someone who duplicates an existing skillset or player that we already have.  (Obviously, I am not suggesting that we do something stupid like draft Bowie instead of Jordan because we have Drexler, but since we don't have the 1st or 2nd pick, that exception doesn't exist for us -- otherwise, I'd grab Rose in a heartbeat)

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Trading seems to be on everyone's brain way too much, so I apologize in advance if this diary treads some well-worn ground.  I was very happy with the recent draft and if more than a few baseball writers consider Buster Posey a "sure thing" and the most ready prospect, then we didn't do too shabbily.

In looking at the 2009 and beyond plans for the Giants, and trying to pick up more hitting, Texas seems to stand out as a good trade partner from a player suitability perspective.  Texas needs pitching, which the Giants have in spades.  Moreover, they have star players at several spots (Michael Young, Josh Hamilton, etc.) which may be blocking some prospects that could be unblocked coming here (Ok, Hamilton is a star, but isn't blocking anyone that we can use, given he plays CF).

I don't know too much about the Texas farm system, only that they have been stockpiling prospects recently (taking Smoak who was quite popular amongst the McCoven).  German Duran is their top 2nd base prospect.  Is it feasible that we might be able to get him and some other prospects by dangling some pitching their way?

long time lurker - first time poster, so be gentle (this is the Internet, who am I kidding?)

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