SB Nation User Blog: Hac Man

Cap room, collecting pieces, and the 2009 NBA draft

Hac Man — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 23:16:19 -0000

Ok, while people haven't really calmed down yet (Can we steal Brand? Throw Max money at Arenas? Start a bidding war with Philly and ATL over Josh Smith?), I wanted to calm down a bit personally and start looking at the Warriors for the long term, because really, that seems to be the view that Mullin is taking. Apparently from all reports, they never went desperately after Baron once he opted out and tried to throw long-term money at him (Ramasar claims they never called at all).

While its amusing to watch the Warriors try to mess up Baron's dream by throwing a big deal at Elton Brand, I honestly think that Brand will not bolt for the money. Not with the smoke that his agent has been throwing about how Brand wants to resign for less in order to fit another star onto the roster. Not with Brand also getting into movie production (apparently working with Baron). Maybe the Warriors hope to get the league's attention on any sort of (*gasp*) collusion, but bottom line, Brand will re-sign.

The rumored max deal for Arenas also seems interesting. Is he a MAX-type player? Many people will argue that he isn't, and also doesn't make for the best backcourt fit with Ellis. At the same time, he viewed fondly by Warriors fans. Could this (cynically) be a bit of PR by Mullin to show that the front office isn't sitting around while their best player and leader leaves with nothing to show for it? Washington can (and already has) top GS with their top offer, so for all we know, Mullin knew he wasn't going anywhere but threw this out to the media to say, "Hey we're trying over here."

While we will have a lot of cap room once Baron signs with the LAC, I'm going to argue that we shouldn't through big deals after any of the players currently on the market. If you look at Chad Ford's list of top Unrestricted free agents, he has as the top 4: Elton Brand, Gilbert Arenas, Baron Davis, and Corey Maggette. No. 5? Desagana Diop. BRRRR. . .that's a STEEP dropoff at that point. The Restricted free agent list isn't much better and demands a higher price.

What Mullin should do (and will if he's looking to the future):

Collect pieces for the team that are either a) shorter term or b) not big contracts unless they expire soon. One possibility, if the Sixers max out in getting Josh Smith who they covet, swoop in and see what can be done to get Andre Iguodala. Josh Childress has also been a favorite of various GSOMers, and is someone we could get for less money. I liked Shaun Livingston's game pre-injury, but the W's should consider just taking a flyer on him, because even if he were to get back to his former self, he had some major holes in his game. Bottom line is that Mullin should be looking at the tier *below* the top tier and stop trying to throw all of the Warriors new cap room at 1 guy.

Monta is not the answer at PG.

As much as I love Monta's game, I don't think that he is or will become a top-flight PG. Can he develop a 3 point shot? Eventually. Court vision and passing instinct are just two of those things that you either have or you don't. Ellis will always be good for 1-2 driving and dishing assist in a game, the kind where he gets inside, and then wraps around the ball to Biedrins/Wright/Randolph for the jam, but he doesn't have the PG mentality. Whenever Nellie entrusted him with lead guard responsibilities last season, he was very shaky and it affected his whole game. He was prone to throwing the ball away or making careless passes that were stolen. He was thinking too much and it showed. If he chooses to, he can work on that, but to me that means that he doesn't have the true PG instinct that Baron/Nash/Kidd/Paul/Williams have. He'll be passable in time, but for a run/gun team, you need a dynamic PG, not one who will just bring the ball upcourt and pass it inside.

The 2009 NBA draft

This is where (I hope) the Warriors look for their future PG. If Ellis, Biedrins (and to a lesser extent, Bellinelli and Randolph) are their building blocks for the future, then they should be looking in next year's draft for their PG. Current ESPN (Chad Ford) rankings has a lot of PGs that could be going in the draft next year: Brandon Jennings, Ty Lawson, Darren Collison, and 3 "big" PGs: Nick Calathes (6-5), Ricky Rubio (6-4), and Jrue Holliday (6-4). Yes, its way too early, but I think that the Warriors would have a great get if they could draft either Rubio or Holliday. I have worries about Rubio from a defensive standpoint (lack of lateral quickness), but he is by all accounts an excellent passer and can definitely initiate an offense. Holliday would basically be Russell Westbrook 2.0, which I can live with. He should be able to match up defensively with guards that Ellis can't handle.

Top PGs in Chad Ford's Top 100 for the 2009 NBA Draft

4. Brandon Jennings (6-2, 165, Fr.)

5. Ricky Rubio (6-4, 180, Intl.)

8. Jrue Holliday (6-4, 180, Fr.)

11. Nick Calathes (6-5, 185, So.)

17. Ty Lawson (5-11, 195, Jr.)

26. Darren Collison (6-1, 165, Sr.)

Udrih stays with Kings (does not go to Clippers)

Hac Man — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 22:07:11 -0000

Udrih stays with Kings (does not go to Clippers)

damn, I was hoping that if Udrih went to the Clips, then it would lessen the possibility of Baron going. No such luck. . .

Instant Analysis: GSW 2008 1st round draft pick Anthony Randolph

Hac Man — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 01:09:34 -0000

(Since this pick hasn't even cooled yet, please be aware that this analysis is spur of the moment and a bit on the harsh side)

I'm a bit shocked. Tim Kawakami, in his blog Talking Points Memo, is saying that this is who Mullin was targeting all along. He even goes on to state that he sees Biedrins, Wright, Randolph, and Ellis being the future of the Warriors.

My first thought when I saw this pick? You know how in Nintendo ice hockey, you could pick between the normal guy, the skinny guy, and the fat guy?

(via bp1.blogger.com)

We just completed a front court of all skinny guys. And while they might be quick up and down the court, they tend to get bounced around a lot by the fat guys.

Random thought: Does every comparable for Randolph in draft analysis list Brandan Wright?

Yet another random thought: Does Mullin really miss playing with Chris Gatling *that* much?

Tale of the tape (taken from Draft Express' pre-draft camp measurements DB)

Brandon Wright:

6'10" in shoes, 200 lbs, 7'3.75" wingspan, 35.5 max vertical

Anthony Randolph:

6'10.25" in shoes, 197 lbs, 7'3" wingspan, 35.0 max vertical

Let's go to the stats:

Brandon Wright's first and only year at North Carolina:

14.7 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 1.8 BLKs in 27.4 min

Anthony Randolph's first and only year at LSU:

15.6 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 2.3 BLKs in 32.8 min

Not really seeing the logic here, and *definitely* not seeing any immediate help coming from this pick. I have to hope that this is prelude to a trade *or* that some help will be brought in with the $10 million trade exception, otherwise the Warriors haven't done anything to help themselves in 2009.

Large Draft Workout at Golden State practice facility

Hac Man — Mon, 16 Jun 2008 16:21:18 -0000

Large Draft Workout at Golden State practice facility

Jonathan Givony over at DraftExpress blogs about the 24 player draft workout that took place at the W's practice facility over the weekend, with 17 teams all sending reps to watch. Lots of players that have been mentioned here participated, including Brandon Rush, CDR, Nicolas Batum, Mareese Speights, and Joey Dorsey (all hail the Dorsey Movement!) :P

Drafting based on Nelson's system and who he will play (Part 2)

Hac Man — Fri, 13 Jun 2008 19:46:09 -0000

In my first draft post, I discussed compatibility with the current Warriors core (Ellis and Biedrins), I want to mix in a few clues based on Don Nelson's system. Don, while a brilliant coach, has been around long enough and grown cantakerous enough, that he's got some pretty set patterns that can be identified. He is well-known for his antipathy towards rookie big men, but that didn't stop him from playing Webber or Nowitski (or lesser-known big men like Chris Gatling and Tyrone Hill). He more or less pioneered the point forward position in the NBA, For Nelson's offense, you need a big man who can:

- hit an outside shot (at least from 12-18 feet) - key if this player will play alongside Biedrins/Wright
- be able to bring the ball up after getting a defensive rebound, so some skill at dribbling and handling the rock
- play one on one defense - Nelson teams end up giving up a lot of points, but that's partly due to his insistence on players trying to single-guard their man (emphasis on "trying to")
- move without the ball and within the flow of the offense/good basketball IQ
- quick feet (see one-on-one defense and moving without the ball)
- prove yourself in practice and keep improving
- doesn't need to be coddled/mentally tough

Nelson isn't afraid to bury someone on the bench no matter how high the draft position. Case in point: Patrick O'Bryant. He never got out of Nelson's doghouse even though he might have been the answer to some of the Warriors defensive problems (or at least 6 more fouls a game) even though he showed flashes in certain games. From Nelson's various blunt comments about him as well as some pre-draft negative reports, the best guess is that he never really showed a passion for the game or worked to improve his existing skillset.

Nelson is also from the old school of coaching in that he's more tough love than good buddy, and if anything, has gotten more so in the years since Webber prima-donna'd him out of Golden State. It makes for great quotes in the media, but Nelson's mental games means that if a player needs a soft touch, he won't get it here. So Mullin needs to make sure that he drafts someone who is mentally tough enough to deal with with Nellie calling him out in the press, yo-yo minutes, etc. If the player was coddled in college (like by Lute Olson or Rick Barnes), they're in for a rude awakening coming to the W's.

Nelson's pickiness about his big men is also based on his offensive system. As players who have played under Nelson have attested, its a free-wheeling system that doesn't rely on a lot of set plays, It demands players to be aware of their position and spacing on the court at all times. A big man who stations himself at the low post just gums up the motion that Nelson loves to run. Biedrins can play in the system because he has learned to move around the court in the context of the Nelson offense and not stand 3 feet from the basket. Its not enough just to be mobile, you have to be intelligent enough to read the other players around you to get in the "right" position and spacing.

From a guard standpoint, I'm going to submit another theory: Nelson doesn't need true point guards to run his offense. He has had good point guards, but only Steve Nash can be considered a true 1. His other top PGs, Baron and Tim Hardaway, were both scoring points. Nelson *does* need guards who can create their own shot if the motion offense and passing doesn't uncover an open shooter and the shot clock is winding down. Hardaway and Davis both have plenty of that ability. Ellis is a work in progress in creating his own offense. His current strength is at taking the pass and then doing something with it. His slight build means that against people who defend him physically, he resorts to the jumpshot, and if the defender is good, they also know that as well. If we do draft a guard, that guard needs to have:

- the ability to create his own shot
- ball handling skills
- passing skills (third on the list intentionally)
- 3 point range
- can finish in traffic (moreso because Ellis' build limits him to a certain extent)

Drafting for compatibility (Part 1)

Hac Man — Thu, 12 Jun 2008 01:37:33 -0000

Apologies for yet another draft diary, but I'm going to try to come at this from a bit of a different angle. I want to look at who in the draft is "compatible" with the Warriors. Before you assume that this is another way of saying drafting for need, its not. I'm a firm believer in drafting the Best Player Available, but I think with the 14th pick you also have to look at the Best Player Available that works for the W's.

By compatibility, I mean someone who can work well with the players we currently have and/or are planning to build around, rather than drafting someone who duplicates an existing skillset or player that we already have. (Obviously, I am not suggesting that we do something stupid like draft Bowie instead of Jordan because we have Drexler, but since we don't have the 1st or 2nd pick, that exception doesn't exist for us -- otherwise, I'd grab Rose in a heartbeat)

The most recent example I can use to illustrate this is the drafting of Brandan Wright. While I love Wright's play and potential, its been mentioned here and also by Tim Kawakami, is that Wright and Biedrins both play the same role in that system, someone who can clean up on the glass, get garbage baskets, and move without the ball. Neither player has much of a face-up game or is expected to develop one. Neither Wright or Biedrins can initiate the offense. Both are long and skinny guys who will get pushed around in the post by the beefier frontcourt players (Short of injecting HGH, neither player can be expected to bulk up into Charles Barkley over a season).

In addition to that, Wright is one of the few movable chips we have if we want to trade for someone, move up in the draft, etc. I'm not saying that Wright is incompatible, but that if we're holding onto Biedrins, then that makes Wright more superfluous.

So far I've been talking about big men in this post, but if we're talking compatibility, we really should consider both of the consensus core players for the W's for the foreseeable future: Monte Ellis and Andris Biedrins. Baron Davis and Stephen Jackson are too old to be considered building blocks, and I'm not including Wright for reasons stated above. And even though Baron is currently our best player, I think that Mullin and Nelson need to be shrewd and assume that Davis has at best 2 more peak years in him, given his injury history and general aging trends for PGs. I don't think anyone else currently on the W's constitues a core player. Some people may want to include Belinelli in that group, but he's got a ways to go to prove himself this season to make it up there, IMO. His defense is way too shaky and his offense too inconsistent to merit a lot of minutes in any role other than designated 3 point gunner at this point.

If we're looking in the draft for someone to complement Monte Ellis, we need a bigger guard who can play either 1/2, which will allow Ellis to shift around depending on matchups. This guard will definitely need to be a good defender to make up for Ellis' deficiencies, as well as have some ability to initiate the offense in a halfcourt situation since Ellis can do so, but is much much better at doing so in a uptempo or broken field situation where he can drive and dish. Also, any guard playing alongside Ellis needs to have good 3 point range -- Ellis may or may not develop this shot, but it will still take some time for it to become reliable for him.

Who in the draft fits this criteria?

First two in my mind are Rose and Mayo, but I'm going to eliminate them as being out of the Warriors potential draft range (unless the W's blow up the team to get either one). So next on the list (within range of our pick):

- Eric Gordon - He's a lights out bomber who can score from anywhere on the court. At 6-4, 215, he plays a physical style of defense that can match up to bigger guards. The one thing on my list that he isn't is a true point, and can't really initate an offense, but with him and Ellis in the backcourt together makes me swoon over the scoring punch.
- Russell Westbrook -- He definitely brings the defense to the table and can more handle taking on the guards that Ellis can't. He has also shown flashes of good offensive play in his time at UCLA, but with him its more of a crapshoot as to how good he is offensively, His 3 point shot is a bit inconsistent.
- Mario Chalmers - Can shoot the 3, and is a physical defender, but at a listed 6-2, may not be able to D-up the big guards in the league. He is a decent, not excellent ballhandler, and is not considered a true point guard, but more of a 2 playing 1 due to his height.
- Chris Douglas-Roberts - Oozes with savvy/basketball IQ/whatever the scouts call it, and is a good defender in the Tayshaun Prince mold at a skinny 6-6, 195. Is probably itching to redeem himself after choking away the NCAA title, and has a funky intermediate game that will appeal to Nelson's quirky side as well as a good 3 point shot. Shot over 50% for his collegiate career.

My Sleeper - Lester Hudson - Undersized and overaged, yes. But he reminds me of DaJuan Wagner, in that he's explosive, quick, and a solidly-built offensive guard who can play a little point. Has a good 3 point shot (was bombs away from downtown, although in an inferior league)

Brandon Rush? doesn't handle well enough. Chase Budinger? not a good enough defender at the 2.

As for compatibilty with Biedrins, I've noted some of the things needed above. A big guy who can shoot an outside jumper, at least top of the key range. (I keep thinking of one of the Warriors favorite plays - where Biedrins sets a high pick for Baron/SJax then rolls to the basket, would have yet another option to it if the big man in the play can hit that jumper). A bulkier player to guard/post up against the widebodies. Biedrins is listed as 245, but doesn't seem to play up to that weight.

Compatible players in the 2008 draft:
Again, eliminating Beasley from the equation, too high for us to jump to.

- Kevin Love -- wasn't sold on him based on watching him in Pac-10 play, as much as some of the fanboys on this blog really pushed for him. But recent reports of him slimming down, as well as his solid combine showing make me think that he would do better on the Warriors than I originally thought. He's got a shot out to the college 3 point line at least, and definitely has the bulk. I thought that he might not have quick enough feet/lateral quickness, but his Lane Agility times at the NBA Combine were at the top for his position/size. Currently slotted to go above our slot, but Warriors *might* be able to trade up for him.
- Danilo Gallinari -- I'm a little mixed at putting him here because I think he fits the model point forward concept that Nelson loves, but he's pretty light and isn't much of a banger inside. He definitely can shoot the ball, as well as having excellent passing skills for his size.
- Marreese Speights - much of the positives about him come from DraftExpress' comments here (http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Cross-Country-Workout-Swing-Part-Two,-Abunassar-Impact-Basketball-2885/) but it also reinforces the main negative commonly heard about him: his motor. If Nelson in part never played O'Bryant because of his lack of motor, would he do the same with Speights? Aside from that, he has both the bulk and the shooting touch. He also played very uptempo in the Florida offense, so there's no question as to whether he can do the same with the W's.
- Javale McGee - doesn't yet have the bulk, but has a good disposition (gets nasty on the low blocks), he also has good perimeter ability. He hasn't wowed any one with his workouts, which means that teams are putting up smokescreens in hopes of him falling to them or he really actually sucks.

My Sleeper - J.J. Hickson. Paul Millsap. That is all.

Anthony Randolph? Brandon Wright 2.0 DeAndre Jordan? too slow and motor questions.

Trade Partner Target: Texas Rangers

Hac Man — Wed, 11 Jun 2008 00:09:44 -0000

Trading seems to be on everyone's brain way too much, so I apologize in advance if this diary treads some well-worn ground. I was very happy with the recent draft and if more than a few baseball writers consider Buster Posey a "sure thing" and the most ready prospect, then we didn't do too shabbily.

In looking at the 2009 and beyond plans for the Giants, and trying to pick up more hitting, Texas seems to stand out as a good trade partner from a player suitability perspective. Texas needs pitching, which the Giants have in spades. Moreover, they have star players at several spots (Michael Young, Josh Hamilton, etc.) which may be blocking some prospects that could be unblocked coming here (Ok, Hamilton is a star, but isn't blocking anyone that we can use, given he plays CF).

I don't know too much about the Texas farm system, only that they have been stockpiling prospects recently (taking Smoak who was quite popular amongst the McCoven). German Duran is their top 2nd base prospect. Is it feasible that we might be able to get him and some other prospects by dangling some pitching their way?

The Baron Benching: Pro-Nellie

Hac Man — Wed, 16 Apr 2008 19:43:33 -0000

The Baron Benching: Pro-Nellie

from Tim Kawakami

The Baron Benching: Pro-Baron

Hac Man — Wed, 16 Apr 2008 19:42:45 -0000

The Baron Benching: Pro-Baron

from Monte Poole

Having your cake and eating it too

Hac Man — Tue, 15 Apr 2008 18:49:51 -0000

long time lurker - first time poster, so be gentle (this is the Internet, who am I kidding?)

like many of you, I watched the penultimate game of the season last night, and instantly understood when Fitz said that this game was in many ways a microcosm of the Warriors season -- an up and down roller coaster, stirring comebacks, plenty of fight, but ultimately, falling short by just that tiny bit.

and now we have that little Nellie/Baron drama to carry with us into the offseason (it will be interesting to see how Davis plays in the game vs. the Sonics). I think some of the issues that have plagued the team all year long come back to the two cornerstones of our current incarnation -- Baron and Nellie wanting to have their cake and eat it too. (and before anyone interprets this incorrectly, I don't have any beef with Baron and would love to see him back in a W's uni next season. Also, wouldn't mind Nellie on the bench, although slightly less so. More on that)

Let's take Baron. If he plays the last game vs the Sonics tomorrow, it will be the first time since the 2001-2002 season (his 3rd year in the league) that he will have played all 82 games. Going into his free agency year, this can be seen as his signal to any teams out there that he can still be a durable player. But at what price to the Warriors this season? Its pretty clear that Baron has to pick and choose his spots to exert maximum energy. Given his physical playing style and 9 seasons in the league, that's understandable. Unfortunately, because of his role as the point guard and top player on the Warriors (not to mention the Warriors playing style), his doing so has a larger impact on the team as a whole. He is the Warriors' best on-the-ball defender, but if he's not fighting through a pick or letting inferior players drive right past him, it places more stress on the other defenders and is a psychological cue to the other players that Boom Diz isn't 100% on that night.

It wasn't as apparent many nights because Capt Jack and Monta rode to the rescue, but I think that caused them to hit the wall for the last few weeks as well. When they were on, as they were for much of the season, we could gloss over Baron's energy conservation. And while we compiled a nice record, if you take a cue from Hollinger's stats (based in part of margin of victory), you can see that the Warriors were on many nights, just a bit luckier than they were last season (their margin being only +2.30). Sure, everyone felt that the Warriors played down to teams inferior to them, but you have to look at Baron as the barometer for that.

Now to the other key figure -- Nellie. The Don has always been a proponent of having his cake and eating it too. As much as I am grateful to him for getting the W's back into prominence, I think Cuban had a grain of truth in his beef with Don when he said that Don not only has to win, but has to do it as the underdog. I think everyone and their brother agrees that Don didn't develop his bench this season (an omission made more glaring by the recent flashes of play from Wright, Perovic, etc) but when you throw Capt Jack out there and have him and Kabuki give away 20-40 pounds to various PFs, that has to take a toll. Kawakami also had a few columns where he expressed that Nellie was trying to win every game early on and burning his starters because he wanted the next year on his contract guaranteed. I'm inclined to agree with that. Nellie is smart enough to know that you can't play his style with a 1-2 person bench, but he only started playing Wright when Biedrins went down, and someone deluded himself into thinking Webber could fit. Don loves to be the mad genius, but guess what happens when the experiment blows up? I don't understand why he wouldn't push to trust his bench more. If he couldn't put them out there the entire season until now, then he's got to get a whole new bench for next season, one which he can put out there to play.

Unfortunately, it was a vicious circle -- Nellie relying on his starters too much, Baron playing too many minutes to prove his durability, starters hitting the wall, bench players not able to contribute. Last year's magical run was just that because there is no way you can duplicate that over an entire season. Let's just hope that Baron comes back, and Nellie feels confident enough to spot him more. Let's hope that this near miss also rejuvenates the hunger that the Warriors fans and players had last season.

ONE DUB.

SB Nation User Blog: Hac Man

Cap room, collecting pieces, and the 2009 NBA draft

Udrih stays with Kings (does *not* go to Clippers)

Udrih stays with Kings (does *not* go to Clippers)

Instant Analysis: GSW 2008 1st round draft pick Anthony Randolph

Large Draft Workout at Golden State practice facility

Large Draft Workout at Golden State practice facility

Drafting based on Nelson's system and who he will play (Part 2)

Drafting for compatibility (Part 1)

Trade Partner Target: Texas Rangers

The Baron Benching: Pro-Nellie

The Baron Benching: Pro-Nellie

The Baron Benching: Pro-Baron

The Baron Benching: Pro-Baron

Having your cake and eating it too

Udrih stays with Kings (does not go to Clippers)

Udrih stays with Kings (does not go to Clippers)