SB Nation User Blog: Han Joelo

What Would Lee Have Cost the Twins?

Han Joelo — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 14:10:36 -0000

I know it's water under the bridge, but this move by the Mariners is exactly what I was hoping the Twins would do. Well not exactly--I was hoping they would get Halladay. If he would have signed the same deal with the Twins would that have possibly worked?

Really though, I am just curious who the Twins could've given up to get Lee. I read up on the three prospects the Mariners surrendered, and here are my comps.

Aumont-Burnett. Aumont seems sexier and throws harder, but has durability and strikezone questions

Gillies(?)--Revere Real similar players; Gillies has a good arm apparently

The other guy--Bromberg Bromberg is better than the guy they gave up, but perhaps the other guy has more upside.

Anyway, would one year of Lee be worth Revere, Burnett, and Bromberg, and are those realistic comps?

Roy, Ramos, and RISK, Part II

Han Joelo — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 04:18:54 -0000

I kind of got lost in a digression about Dungeons and Dragons in Part I. I admit, my Nerd Scale does go to 11. But that was kind of my point--here you have a game where a bunch of jocks hit a little ball with a stick chopped down from some tree by some other jock, and another jock tries to catch the ball with a chunk of cow flesh chopped off a dead cow carcass that had been raised by the ultimate jock, the American Cowboy. And more often than not, the we the fans end up sounding like a bunch of nerds, bandying about statistics. I mean, it's probably redundant, but you've all seen the Seinfeld episode, right? Where George is unemployed, and he says, "I like baseball..." and Jerry says "they usually give those jobs to ex-baseball players." But in TV land George gets the job anyway, and the Yankees lose because he makes them where cotton uniforms that have shrunk. (One can only hope there is another George Costanza making his way up the Yankee chain of command. It took them years to erase his mistakes.) But by and large we're all Costanza's, and if we actually had to run a team like the Twins, we'd botch it up way worse than Smith and Gardenhire.

Seriously, the mathematical brainpower I've seen devoted to breaking down baseball statistics on Twins fansites alone could probably break the cold-fusion code, with plenty of room left over for some significant advances in time travel as well. Which would be more productive than debating the relative merits of Brian Dinkelman vs. Steve Tolleson, because then the Twins could go back in time and really fleece the Mets. Moreon RISK below.

In RISK, the idea is to slowly build up strength until you can make a blitz. Because the Yankees/Asia control more territory, they get more reinforcements every turn. It takes the Twins longer to build up strength.

In RISK, every turn you have a successful attack, you get to take a card. In baseball, this is equivalent to fielding a competitive team. You keep the fans interested, keep the money flowing, keep pouring resources into your farm, your scouting, and your young players.

When you get three cards in RISK, you can trade them in. But, the longer you wait, the more valuable they become. The Twins could have 'traded their cards in' a couple of years ago, resigning Hunter and retaining Santana, if only for the year. But the value wasn't their. They hadn't built up their armies enough. Plus, the AL Central (Africa) was exceptionally strong. Cleveland, Chicago, Detroit, and even KC, after a brief feint at respectability, have all regressed or are regressing.

So now the Twins have waited. They have five cards, representing prospects, revenue, etc. They have some strong armies on the board: Mauer is a X, Morneau is a X, Nathan is statistically a X if he can ever get it done against the Yankees. What do they lack?

If you look at the Yankees or Phillies, you see a couple of X's in the heart of the order, and at least a V at the top, and maybe another V down lower. I'd argue that after two great years, Span is qualified to be a V. Unfortunately, the Twins have been trotting out I's in the number 2 spot. That has to change. They need someone equivalent to Damon or Victorino at least in the spot. Polanco looks nice.

But even more important, they need a X starting pitcher. An Ace. Forget the regular season, forget 7-8 medium grade starters. The high payroll Yankees showed you only need three, and one of them needs to be a horse. Blackburn has the guts, Baker has the stuff, Liriano had the stuff, but maybe only Slowey has enough of a combo to at least be Lee-like, and he is coming off an injury.

My recommendation, then: Go all in now--trade your cards. You have to. New stadium. Several in their prime players coming of great (and repeated) seasons. The best looking bunch of prospects in a while. Go after Halladay. I know he has a no-trade clause, but start the offer at Baker-Ramos-Hicks and see what happens. Offer him a mutual option for 25 Million for 2011, just so he has insurance. Let him make a playoff run with a great team and see what happens--if he kicks ass, he's in line for a better contract than if he just toils away in Toronto. If he bombs, he's way better off than if he was a 33 year old free agent coming of a down season. The Twins should have a great relief corp, hopefully great defense, and a good to great offense. What's not to like?

I love the prospects, but Ramos is expendable with Mauer locked up, and Hicks is more potential right now than reality; plus you still have Revere, Morales, Benson. I like Baker, but I have no faith he'll ever develop into a bulldog ace. At absolute best, he's A.J. Burnett, dazziling one night, and shaking his head in disbelief the next.

I'm calling my shot--the Twins get their ace, their Morris, their Viola, their Halladay, and their Championship.

On Roy, Ramos, and RISK

Han Joelo — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 19:00:05 -0000

I, shall we say, "enjoy" the stat side of baseball. I liked math and science in school, but ultimately got a degree in English. I realize stats are a very real part of the game, but for me there is poetry as well. Attempting to reduce everything to some quantifiable stat kind of wears me out.

I suppose I just haven't looked hard enough, but since the end of Batgirl, Twins bloggers with a more artistic point of view seem to be few and far between, with, perhaps, the exception of Howard Sinker. TwinkieTown does have some fantastic content though, and I truly enjoy visiting. After the jump, I will attempt to show how baseball is like the game of RISK (although it seems some would prefer to compare it to Dungeons and Dragons; more on that later.) If you have never played RISK, you probably don't need to bother reading on.

A lot of times I read the comments section of sites like this and I feel I've stepped into some discussion forum for avid Dungeons and Dragons players. Its almost as if the stats were designed primarily so they would have cool sounding acronyms, ones that also sound rather weapon-like.

"My pitcher-mage, Har-Den, with the +2 Staff of Slurving Slide, has a 2.1 WAR. You have no chance."

"But my hitter-barbarian, Ugg-la, has the +3 Bashing Bat of Beautiful Bombs, so I trump you. Plus, your Elf-Shortsop, O-Cab, is shackled with the Pantaloons of Putrid Peripherals, rendering him a -.94883 UZR."

"Well, my mage-pitcher Har-Den casts the spell of Regression to the Mean on Ugg-la. What say you, SABR-Master?"

They roll their 11 sided die, the SABR-Master's work computer chugs away agonizingly slow, because he is simultaneously trying to check Gleeman's link to a Dancing Dog video. Eventually it spits out an answer:

"According to my calculations, while throwing the pitch, Har-Den's arm detaches at the shoulder. Ugg-la hits the ball, but the arm, trailing the play, makes a barehanded catch. I decree Ugg-la out."

While I've never played Dungeons and Dragons, I did watch the saturday morning cartoon, and for a while I played a cheap knock off version called Tunnels and Trolls. And I've played Final Fantasy. And I prefer games where you can actually control the player, rather than just letting the computer run probability tests--even if it means I keep walking off the same bridge over and over again. (Hey, video game makers--how about some 2-D games for us thirty-somethings? I'm tired of my nephews yelling at me for swiping them with my Lego Lightsaber.)

HOWEVER, I have to admit that when comparing baseball to games, roll of the dice, probability type games seem to make a better fit, and for me, the best comparison is the game of RISK. Here are the ground rules:

This is an AL only game. The Yankees control Asia, the Red Sox are Europe, the Rays are currently Australia (although at times the Blue Jays are.) The Angels currently control North America, the Twins are South America, and the rest of the AL Central is Africa.

For the purposes of this analogy, players are armies. Only when you dip into the tray for reinforcements, whatever you happen to pull out you get to keep, whether it's a I or a X. (There are a lot more I's than X's.) I'll use the version of RISK I played growing up when it comes to the Army denotations:

X's (tens) = Joe Mauer or Alex Rodriguez. Truly elite players. Kind of like getting an A from Sickels.

V's (fives) = All-Star players. Joe Nathan. Derek Jeter. Really good, but still a huge difference from a X.

III's (threes) = Slightly above average guys. Think Cuddyer.

I's (ones) = Filler. Frontline cannon/Rivera fodder. LNP.

In this game, you get to roll the number of dice equal to your Army, so Mariano Rivera gets 10 die and Brendan Harris gets one. Rivera has ten chances to roll a six, and even if Harris rolls a six on his one dice, he loses, because tie goes to the pitcher/defender. Harris has to roll a six, and Rivera has to NOT roll a six on any of his ten dice in order to prevail. I haven't actually checked the math on this, but it feels about right. Harris has almost no chance of getting to River. But, there is hope. You've got to roll the die.

Check back later for Part II, where I discuss "Trading in Cards," the Euro-Asian conflict between the Yankees and Sox, and the folly of attacking the Middle East.